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Quarterly Early Warning Bulletin for Food and Agriculture June
2013 – August 2013
Page 1 of 13
HIGHLIGHTS
Plague of Malagasy Migratory Locust in Madagascar is underway,
affecting half of the country. Rice crop losses due to locusts
estimated at 480,000 to 630,000 tonnes. Further damage from swarms
expected from June to September (winter season) in the invasion
area. Damage caused by locusts and cyclone Hurana expected to
result in reduced crop production in 2013, negatively impacting on
food security conditions, particularly in south-western and western
parts.
Wheat rust diseases (Yellow rust and stem rust) could cause
epidemics on wheat in some areas in Africa, Central Asia, and the
Near East.
Continued monitoring of the emergent outbreak situation in
Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in humans
to determine if the virus is linked with an animal reservoir with
possible recrudescence later in 2013 and intercontinental cases
post Hajj (October 2013).
Avian influenza H7N9 remains a concern. China and neighbouring
countries increase their capacities for surveillance prior to
September in anticipation of enhancing surveillance for H7N9 and
H5N1 in late August, early September.
In Syria, the 2013 wheat production dropped significantly below
average due to the escalating civil conflict leading to disruptions
in farming activities. Furthermore, livestock sector has been
severely affected.
In Central Africa, serious food insecurity conditions prevail
due to escalating conflict affecting about 8.4 million people in
Central African Republic and Democratic Republic of the Congo.
In Western Africa, the overall food situation is favourable in
most parts of the Sahel following an above-average 2012 cereal
harvest. However, a large number of people are still affected by
conflict and the lingering effects of 2011/12 food crisis.
In Eastern Africa, although household food security has improved
in most countries, serious concerns remain in conflict areas of
Somalia, the Sudan, and South Sudan.
World cereal production is forecast to increase by about 7
percent in 2013, helping to replenish global inventories and raise
expectations for more stable markets in 2013/14.
The Quarterly Early Warning Bulletin is a product of the
collaboration between the Emergency Prevention System (EMPRES) for
transboundary animal and plant pests and diseases and food safety
threats, and the Global Information and Early Warning System
(GIEWS), coordinated by the Food Chain Crisis Management Framework
(FCC). Data is provided by GIEWS and EMPRES. The Bulletin
integrates information on food security and threats to the food
chain for the three months ahead.
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Quarterly Early Warning Bulletin for Food and Agriculture June
2013 – August 2013
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REGIONAL ISSUES
AFRICA In Central Africa, serious food insecurity conditions
prevail due to escalating conflict affecting about 8.4 million
people in Central African Republic and Democratic Republic of the
Congo.
In Western Africa, the overall food situation is favourable in
most parts of the Sahel following an above-average 2012 cereal
harvest. However, a large number of people are still affected by
conflict and the lingering effects of 2011/12 food crisis.
In Eastern Africa, although household food security has improved
in most countries, serious concerns remain in conflict areas of
Somalia, the Sudan, and South Sudan.
Plague of Malagasy Migratory Locust in Madagascar is underway.
Further damage from swarms expected from June to September (winter
season) in the invasion area.
Low to moderate risk of Desert Locust outbreak in several
regions of Africa (West, North, and East/Horn of Africa).
Moderate level of risk of Wheat Rusts & Maize Lethal
Necrosis Disease in Central, East/Horn of Africa and Great Lakes
regions.
Moderate to High risk of Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) will
continue to negatively affect livelihoods and food security in
Central Africa and Great Lakes, and in northwest Africa.
Climatic forecasts indicate that there is low risk of conditions
favourable towards an outbreak of Rift valley fever (RVF) in West
and North Africa.
Flare ups of Contagious bovine Pleuropneumonia (CBPP).
Cases of anthrax particularly in Central Africa.
NEAR EAST In Syria, the 2013 wheat production dropped
significantly below average due to the escalating civil conflict
leading to disruptions in farming activities. Furthermore,
livestock sector has been severely affected.
Low to moderate risk of Desert Locust outbreak in several
countries in Near East.
Continued monitoring of the emergent outbreak situation in
Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in humans
to determine if the virus is linked with an animal reservoir and
prepare for a possible resurgence later in 2013 (including
intercontinental cases during the Hajj in October). The repeated
introduction of the infection into the community, the ongoing
detection of new illness, and the substantial impact of hospital
transmission in this outbreak underscore the importance of
investigations into the community source of MERS-CoV. Without the
ability to prevent community infection, prevention of health-care
transmission will remain a challenge.
Continued spread of Lumpy skin disease (LSD) in cattle through
the countries of Israel, West Bank, Lebanon and Jordan, with risks
of spread to neighbouring countries. Civil instability may also
lead to widespread livestock movements and thus further facilitate
disease spread.
Climatic forecasts indicate that there is low risk of conditions
favourable towards an outbreak of Rift valley fever (RVF) in Near
East.
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Quarterly Early Warning Bulletin for Food and Agriculture June
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ASIA & THE PACIFIC
Avian influenza H7N9 remains a concern. China and neighbouring
countries increase their capacities for surveillance prior to
September in anticipation of enhancing surveillance for H7N9 and
H5N1 in late August, early September.
In endemic countries, Highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1
outbreaks in poultry are expected to continue at a low level
through these months.
Surveillance for H5N1 should be enhanced again in
September/October, when the high outbreak season starts and wild
birds, which could
potentially be involved in introducing the virus to non-affected
areas, start returning to their wintering sites.
Small to moderate outbreaks of anthrax, affecting domestic
ruminants, and people touching or consuming sick or dead animals,
are predicted in
the regions and areas with seasonal rainfalls. More visceral
cases of anthrax tend to be reported (caused by contaminated meat
consumption-
visceral and pulmonary cases are life threatening).
EUROPE & CENTRAL ASIA
Moderate to high risk of Migratory, Moroccan & Italian
Locusts outbreaks.
Low to moderate risk of Wheat yellow rust to develop in highland
areas.
The ongoing Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks in China,
eastern Russia and the North Caucasus region may continue to
spread. Important
factors influencing this are the extent to which the type A
vaccines in use in the region match this virus strain, and the
vaccination strategies
applied. There is high potential to spread west into Central
Asia and via animal movements into West Eurasia.
Brucellosis will continue to threaten public and animal health
in some countries in Central Asia.
African swine fever (ASF) will continue to threaten the food
security of the whole of Eastern Europe. Countries in the region,
particularly those that
border the Russian Federation (Ukraine, Belarus), must prepare
for a long-term defense of their pig production systems from
potential ASF
incursions. Those countries with low biosecurity-dominated pig
production systems are the most vulnerable to ASF introduction.
LATIN AMERICA & CARIBBEAN
Mexico neighbouring countries at high risk of introduction of
Highly pathogenic avian influenza H7N3 as there is a continuous
spread of affecting poultry production and consumption in the
country.
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Quarterly Early Warning Bulletin for Food and Agriculture June
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REGION COUNTRY TYPE OF THREAT LEVEL DESCRIPTION
AFRICA Burkina Faso Widespread lack of access
A massive influx of refugees from Mali has put additional
pressure on local food markets. Although production recovered
significantly in 2012, assistance is still needed in parts, due to
the lingering effects of the previous year’s drought-induced food
crisis.
Burundi Severe localized food insecurity
In some central and eastern zones, below-average 2013 season A
harvest, coupled with high food prices, continue to erode
purchasing power of low-income households.
Cameroon Severe localized food insecurity
In North and Far North regions, recurrent climatic shocks in
recent years have negatively impacted agricultural activities. This
has led to severe food insecurity and malnutrition for about 615
000 people.
Central African Republic
Severe localized food insecurity
Worsening civil insecurity caused the displacement of 206 000
individuals and aggravated an already alarming food security
situation. The number of food insecure people in need of
humanitarian assistance has sharply increased to 2 million in
recent months.
Chad Widespread lack of access
Lingering effects of the 2011 drought, influx of refugees (over
300 000 people from the Sudan’s Darfur region and the Central
African Republic) and the return of an estimated 79 000 Chadians
from Libya, are putting additional pressure on the local food
supply affecting food security.
Threats to the food chain
Moderate Desert Locust. Adults and perhaps a few small swarms
expected to appear in central and northern areas. One generation of
small-scale breeding will cause locust numbers to increase
slightly.
Congo Severe localized food insecurity
Despite the recovery from the floods and the explosion in the
capital in 2012, the country still faces significant problems of
food insecurity: 216 000 people are food-insecure (8 percent of all
households), of which 37 000 people have “poor” food consumption
and 179 000 “borderline” food consumption.
Côte d’Ivoire Severe localized food insecurity
Conflict-related damage to agriculture in recent years and the
lack of support services mainly in the northern regions. The 2011
post-election crisis forced thousands of people to leave the
country and seek refuge, mostly in eastern Liberia where over 61
000 Ivorian refugees were still living as of May 2013.
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Quarterly Early Warning Bulletin for Food and Agriculture June
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Democratic Republic of Congo
Severe localized food insecurity
Escalation of conflict in recent months has displaced additional
175 000 people increasing the total number of Internally displaced
persons (IDPs) to an estimated 2.8 million and 6.4 million people
in food and livelihood crisis. Agricultural activities were
hindered, especially in eastern parts, while high food prices
continue to impede food access. In addition, the country has
recently received about 43 000 refugees from the Central African
Republic.
Djibouti Widespread lack of access
About 70 000 people, mainly pastoralists in the southeast and
northeast areas, affected by
consecutive poor rainy seasons, are estimated to be in need of
humanitarian assistance.
Eritrea Widespread lack of access
Vulnerability to food insecurity due to economic constraints and
high food and fuel prices.
Threats to the food chain
Low Desert Locust. Small-scale breeding will cause locust
numbers to increase slightly in the
western lowlands.
Moderate Wheat rust diseases (Yellow rust and stem rust) could
cause epidemics on wheat.
Ethiopia Severe localized food insecurity
About 2.4 million people are estimated to be in need of
humanitarian assistance, mainly
located in regions such as east Amhara, Tigray, east Oromia,
south Somali and sweet
potato growing areas of Southern Nations, Nationalities and
Peoples Region (SNNPR).
Threats to the food chain
Moderate Wheat rust diseases (Yellow rust and stem rust) could
cause epidemics on wheat.
High Due to previous Army worm outbreaks in May 2013, serious
outbreak expected in
July/August 2013, during the main cropping season.
Gambia Widespread lack of access
Despite some improvement in last year’s national cereal
production, assistance is still
needed to overcome the lingering effects of 2011 drought and
high food prices.
Guinea Widespread lack of access
Despite improved access to food in recent months, driven mostly
by lower prices of
imported commodities, assistance is still needed to overcome the
lingering effects of
several years of high food prices and general inflation.
Kenya Threats to the food chain
Moderate Wheat rust diseases (stem rust and yellow rust) could
cause epidemics on wheat.
Moderate to high
Risk of spread of African swine fever (ASF) in small holder pig
farms, negatively impacting food security and livelihoods.
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Lesotho Severe localized food insecurity
Despite a recovery in cereal production in 2013 and stable
prices which contributed to improve food security conditions
somewhat, assistance is still needed for vulnerable groups due to
lingering effects of two consecutive poor harvests in 2011 and
2012.
Liberia Widespread lack of access
Slow recovery from war-related damages, inadequate social
services and infrastructure, high food prices and poor market
access, and the presence of some 60 000 Ivorian refugees in the
country (as of June 2013) leads to continued international
support.
Madagascar
Severe localized food insecurity
Damage caused by the locust and cyclone Hurana expected to
result in reduced crop production in 2013, negatively impacting on
food security conditions, particularly in south-western and western
parts.
Threats to the food chain
High Malagasy Migratory Locust. Plague underway, affecting half
of the country. Rice crop losses due to locusts estimated at
480,000 to 630,000 tonnes. Further damage from swarms expected from
June to September (winter season) in the invasion area.
Malawi Widespread lack of access
Persistent high food prices continue to erode purchasing power.
However, economic conditions have shown some stabilisation, while
2013 maize production is estimated at an above average level and is
expected to benefit food security conditions.
Mali Widespread lack of access
Insecurity in northern Mali has disrupted commodity flows and
resulted in large population displacement, worsening the already
precarious food security situation created by the 2011 drought.
Threats to the food chain
Moderate Desert Locust. Adult groups and perhaps a few small
swarms are likely to arrive in the north and will breed with the
onset of the rains, causing locust numbers to increase.
Mozambique Severe localized food insecurity
The loss of 211 000 hectares of cropped land in early 2013 due
to flooding, mainly in Gaza province, negatively impacted food
security conditions. However, decreasing prices and a good second
season crop have improved food security in the affected areas.
Niger Widespread lack of access
The country has been struck by successive severe food crises in
recent years that resulted in depletion of household assets and
high level of indebtedness. In addition, large numbers of refugees
and returning national migrant workers from Mali and Libya placed
an increased demand on food.
Threats to the food chain
Moderate Desert Locust. Adult groups and perhaps a few small
swarms are likely to arrive in the north and will breed with the
onset of the rains, causing locust numbers to increase.
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Senegal Severe localized food insecurity
Production shortfalls and high food prices in 2012 led to a
deterioration of the food
security situation in several parts of the country. Although
production recovered
significantly last year, assistance is still needed in
parts.
Sierra Leone Widespread lack of access
Slow recovery from war-related damage. Depreciation of currency
led to higher inflation
negatively affecting households’ purchasing power and food
security conditions.
Somalia Severe localized food insecurity
About 1 million people are estimated to be in need of emergency
assistance, mainly in the
pastoral central and northwestern coastal areas including
Internally displaced persons
(IDPs).
South Africa Threats to the food chain
Low Climatic forecasts indicate that there is low risk of
favourable conditions for an outbreak of
Rift valley fever (RVF) during this period.
South Sudan Severe localized food insecurity
The number of people estimated as severely food insecure, mainly
affected by civil
insecurity, trade restrictions and floods, increased to about
1.2 million.
Threats to the food chain
Moderate Maize Lethal Necrosis Disease (MLND) might cause
epidemics in South Sudan.
Sudan Severe localized food insecurity
The number of people estimated to be in need of humanitarian
assistance, mainly in
conflict-affected areas, increased to about 4.3 million.
Threats to the food chain
Moderate Desert Locust. Adult groups and perhaps a few small
swarms expected to appear in central
areas and breed, causing locust numbers to increase
slightly.
Tanzania Threats to the food chain
Moderate Maize Lethal Necrosis Disease (MLND) and wheat rusts
(yellow and stem) might cause
epidemics.
Low Red Locust threat.
Uganda Threats to the food chain
Moderate Stem rust could cause epidemics on wheat.
Moderate Maize Lethal Necrosis Disease (MLND) might cause
epidemics in Uganda.
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Zimbabwe Exceptional shortfall in aggregate food
production/supplies
Maize production in 2013 is expected to remain stagnant, at
below average level, and despite relatively stable prices the
production short-falls are anticipated to result in stressed food
security conditions, particularly in southern parts.
NEAR EAST Algeria Threats to the food chain
Low Desert Locust. Adult groups and perhaps a few small swarms
appearing in the south in June will move to northern Sahel.
Egypt Threats to the food chain
Low to moderate
Desert Locust. Adult groups and perhaps a few small swarms will
move southwards to the summer breeding areas in Sudan. Residual
populations may persist along Lake Nasser.
Moderate Highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 infections
continue to be reported in poultry, at a low level through the
reporting period as it is not flu season.
Continued outbreaks of Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) are likely
to spread with risk of incursion to neighbouring countries, with
continued potential introductions of a new serotype.
Iraq Exceptional shortfall in aggregate food
production/supplies
Severe civil insecurity.
Jordan Threats to the food
chain High Continued spread of Lumpy skin disease (LSD) in
cattle through the country, with risks of
spread to neighbouring countries. Civil instability may also
lead to widespread livestock movements and thus further facilitate
disease spread.
Lebanon Threats to the food
chain High Continued spread of Lumpy skin disease (LSD) in
cattle through the country, with risks of
spread to neighbouring countries. Civil instability may also
lead to widespread livestock movements and thus further facilitate
disease spread.
Libya Threats to the food chain
Low Desert Locust. Locusts will decline as adult groups and
perhaps a few small swarms move in June to the northern Sahel.
Mauritania Widespread lack of access
Lingering effects of the 2011 sharp drop in production resulted
in depletion of household assets. The country is also affected by
high international food prices due to its high import dependency.
Moreover, more than 74 000 Malian refugees have been registered in
the southeastern part of the country.
Threats to the food chain
Moderate Desert Locust. Adult groups and perhaps a few small
swarms may arrive in the south and
will breed with the onset of rains, causing locust numbers to
increase.
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Morocco Threats to the food chain
Low Desert Locust. Locusts will decline as adult groups and
perhaps a few small swarms move
in June to the northern Sahel.
Saudi Arabia Threats to the food chain
Low Desert Locust. Locust infestations will decline as adult
move to summer breeding areas in
Sudan and perhaps Yemen.
Moderate Continued monitoring of the emergent outbreak situation
in Middle East Respiratory
Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in humans to determine if the
virus is linked with an
animal reservoir and prepare for a possible resurgence later in
2013 (including
intercontinental cases during the Hajj in October). The repeated
introduction of the
infection into the community, the ongoing detection of new
illness, and the substantial
impact of hospital transmission in this outbreak underscore the
importance of
investigations into the community source of MERS-CoV. Without
the ability to prevent
community infection, prevention of health-care transmission will
remain a challenge.
Syrian Arab Republic
Exceptional shortfall in aggregate food production/supplies
Due to worsening civil conflict, about 4 million people are
estimated to be facing severe
food insecurity. Although, some international food assistance is
provided, the Syrian
refugees are also putting strain on other countries in the
region.
Threats to the food chain
High Increased risk of spread of Tranboundary animal diseases
(TADs) including Foot-and-mouth
disease (FMD) and Lumpy skin disease (LSD) due to civil
instability with potential disease
incursions into neighbouring countries.
West Bank and Gaza Strip
Threats to the food chain
High Continued spread of Lumpy skin disease (LSD) in cattle
through the country, with risks of
spread to neighbouring countries. Civil instability may also
lead to widespread livestock
movements and thus further facilitate disease spread.
Yemen Widespread lack of access
The severely food-insecure population in need of emergency food
assistance is estimated at over 10 million people (46 percent of
the population) as a result of high levels of poverty, prolonged
conflict and high prices of food and fuel.
Threats to the food chain
Moderate Desert Locust. Adult groups and perhaps a few small
swarms may arrive in the interior and will breed with the onset of
the rains, causing locust numbers to increase.
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ASIA & THE PACIFIC
Afghanistan Severe localized food insecurity
Some groups, particularly Internally displaced persons (IDPs)
displaced by the conflict, returnees from Pakistan and natural
disaster-affected households are faced with increased food
insecurity.
Threats to the food chain
Moderate Moroccan Locust outbreak.
Bangladesh Threats to the food chain
Moderate Due to seasonality it is expected an increase of the
number of cases of Anthrax in animals and potentially in
humans.
Low to
moderate
Seasonal risk of anthrax. Food safety risks linked to
insufficient ante mortem inspection.
Democratic People’s Republic of Korea
Widespread lack of access
May to August is a lean period for much of the population in the
country. Despite improved cereal harvest of the 2012 main season
and near normal outcome of the ongoing harvest of the 2013 early
season (winter/spring), chronic food insecurity exists. An
estimated 2.8 million vulnerable people require food assistance
until the next harvest in October.
India Threats to the food chain
Low Desert Locust. Small-scale breeding will cause locust
numbers to increase slightly in Rajasthan.
Low to
moderate
Small outbreaks of anthrax on small ruminants. Human cases
limited to cutaneous infections. Food safety risks linked to
insufficient ante mortem inspection.
Moderate to high
Continued risk of spread of a highly virulent Porcine
reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) in the far north east
of the country; which may be reflective of regional spread from a
bordering country.
Pakistan Threats to the food chain
Low Desert Locust. Small-scale breeding will cause locust
numbers to increase slightly along the Indian border in Cholistan
and Tharparkar.
Viet Nam Threats to the food chain
Moderate to high
Begin to increase capacity for avian influenza H7N9 surveillance
in poultry in China and neighbouring countries prior to September
in anticipation of enhancing surveillance for H7N9 and H5N1 in late
August, early September.
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EUROPE &
CENTRAL
ASIA
Armenia
Threats to the food chain
Low Italian Locust. Local infestations.
Low to moderate
Wheat yellow rust might develop in highland areas.
Azerbaijan Threats to the food chain
Low Moroccan Locust . Local infestations.
Low to moderate
Wheat yellow rust might develop in highland areas.
Belarus Threats to the food chain
Moderate to high
Continued risk for introduction of African swine fever (ASF)
from movement of contaminated products from infected domestic pigs
and infected wild boar from daily border crossings from the Russian
Federation.
Georgia
Threats to the food chain
Low to moderate
Wheat yellow rust might develop in highland areas.
Moderate to high
Ongoing Moroccan & Italian Locusts outbreaks.
High Risk of introduction of Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) from
the neighbouring country to the north.
Israel Threats to the food chain
High Desert Locust. Adult groups will form in June and threaten
crops prior to migration to summer breeding areas in Sudan.
Continued spread of Lumpy skin disease (LSD) in cattle through
the country, with risks of spread to neighbouring countries. Civil
instability may also lead to widespread livestock movements and
thus further facilitate disease spread.
Kazakhstan
Threats to the food chain
High Ongoing Moroccan & Italian Locusts outbreaks. More than
4 million ha treated.
Low to
moderate
Wheat yellow rust might develop in highland areas.
Moderate to
high
Recent Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) incursions to North Caucasus
and East Kazakhstan have potential to escape outside of vaccination
zones and develop into a larger scale epidemics unless properly
controlled with a risk of further spread of FMD within the country
and re-introduction across the border from neighbouring China.
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Kyrgyzstan
Severe localized food insecurity
Despite the expected good cereal harvest, the high food prices
are still affecting the purchasing power of the poorest and
vulnerable families. In addition, socio-political tensions still
exist in Jalalabad, Osh, Batken and Issykul Oblasts.
Threats to the food chain
Low to moderate
Wheat yellow rust might develop in highland areas.
High Italian Locust outbreak.
Russian
Federation
Threats to the food chain
High Moroccan & Italian Locusts outbreaks.
Low to moderate
Wheat yellow rust might develop in highland areas.
High African swine fever (ASF) in Russian Federation is likely
to further expand both in wild boar populations and in domestic
pigs in multiple places in Southern and Central parts of the
country. Ukraine and Belarus to be on very high alert from July to
November, when virus prevalence in the populations is at its
highest level and movement of people due to summer vacations
intensifies.
Tajikistan Threats to the food chain
Moderate to high
Moroccan & Italian Locusts outbreaks.
Low to moderate
Wheat yellow rust might develop in highland areas.
Turkmenistan Threats to the food chain
Moderate Moroccan Locust outbreak.
Low to moderate
Wheat yellow rust might develop in highland areas.
Ukraine
Threats to the food chain
High Continued risk for introduction of African swine fever
(ASF) from movement of
contaminated products from infected domestic pigs and infected
wild boar from daily
border crossings from the Russian Federation.
Uzbekistan Threats to the food chain
Moderate to high
Migratory Locust outbreak.
Low to moderate
Wheat yellow rust might develop in highland areas.
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LATIN
AMERICA &
CARIBBEAN
Haiti Severe localized food insecurity
Vulnerable households affected by sharply reduced 2012 food
production, increasing food
prices and lingering effects of damage caused by hurricanes in
2012.
Threats to the food chain
Moderate Continuous spread of Teschovirus and Classical swine
fever (CSF) in the country affecting
swine production and food security and livelihoods.
Mexico
Threats to the food chain
High Continuous spread of Highly pathogenic avian influenza H7N3
affecting poultry production
and consumption. Neighbouring countries at high risk of
introduction of Highly pathogenic
avian influenza H7N3 from Mexico.
High Food safety. Recent outbreak of clenbuterol intoxication
indicating use of beta-agonists as
anticatabolic drugs above authorized levels on farm animals.
For more information:
Food Chain Crisis Management Framework (FCC)
Mona Chaya, FCC Coordinator
Email: [email protected]
Web: www.fao.org/foodchain
Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS)
Email: [email protected]
Web: http://www.fao.org/giews
mailto:[email protected]://www.fao.org/foodchainmailto:[email protected]://www.fao.org/giews