Goal: develop high-level decision-making optimization to predict structural modifications in refining and logistics assets using more rigorous formulations PETROBRAS Current Tool for Strategic Planning (PLANINV) – LP No Process Design Synthesis Quantitative Methods PLANINV Process Design Opt. (MILP) 1 Delayed Coker Terminal/Pipeline Atmospheric Distillation EWO Meeting – March 2014 What, Where, When to Invest? Only optimize streams transfers (oil and fuels import/export, market supply) + NLP Processing Blending Quantitative Methods for Strategic and Investment Planning in the Oil-Refining Industry Brenno C. Menezes, Ignacio E. Grossmann, Lincoln F. Moro and Jeffrey D. Kelly
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Goal: develop high-level decision-making optimization to predict structural modifications in refining and logistics assets using more rigorous formulations
PETROBRAS Current Tool for Strategic Planning (PLANINV) – LP
No Process Design Synthesis Quantitative Methods
PLANINV Process Design Opt. (MILP)
1
Delayed Coker
Terminal/Pipeline
Atmospheric Distillation
EWO Meeting – March 2014
What, Where, When to Invest?
Only optimize streams transfers (oil and fuels import/export, market supply)
+ NLP Processing
Blending
Quantitative Methods for Strategic and Investment Planning in the Oil-Refining Industry
Brenno C. Menezes, Ignacio E. Grossmann, Lincoln F. Moro and Jeffrey D. Kelly
(1) Menezes, et. al. (2014). Nonlinear Production Planning of Oil-Refinery Units for the Future Fuel Market in Brazil: Process Design Scenario-Based Model. Ind. Eng. Chem. Res. DOI: 10.1021/ie025775. Published online: Feb, 17, 2014.
1st- NLP Operational Problem Z=profit (m3/d) and QFu=unit throughputs to control capacity expansion
2nd- MINLP Investments Problem (NLP Operational Problem Embedded) Z=NPV ($) and QEu,t and QCu,t to control capacity expansion
3rd- MILP Investments Problem + NLP Operational Problem (Phenomenological Decomposition Heuristics) Z=NPV ($) and QEu,t, QIu,t and QCu,t to control capacity expansion and installation
Crude Diet
Processing
Blending - Crude - Cuts/Final Cuts - Final Products
• More realistic approach (in a quantitative manner) for strategic and investment planning in the oil-refining industry
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Impact for industrial applications:
• Aggregated model (NLP and MINLP cases) used to define the overall capacity increment per type of oil-refinery unit demanded in the conceptual projects
• Realistic formulation to predict investments in oil-refinery units