Quantitative History and Historical Numeracy Margo Anderson History Department http://www.uwm.edu/~margo
Jan 18, 2016
Quantitative History and Historical Numeracy
Margo Anderson
History Department
http://www.uwm.edu/~margo
Human Population Growth Timeline
Human Population Growth Timeline
Human Population Growth Timeline: Focusing in….
• 1456: Gutenberg Bible (Invention of movable type)
• 1492 Columbus’ “Discovery” of the New World
• ca 1500 Renaissance• 1517 Protestant Reformation• 1607: Founding of Virginia (Jamestown
Colony)• 1620-30: Founding of Plymouth Colony and
Massachusetts Bay
American Population Dynamics
Growth of the U.S Population
Growth in the Size of the House
Admitting States to the Union
The First Gerrymander, 1812
1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050VAR1
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WH
ITF
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United States Fertility, 1800-2000 (White Women)
Homicide
Homicide rates in the US, 1950-2000
Circumstances
Weapons and Circumstances
Homicide in Europe over Time
• Homicide rates per 100,000 population in English counties and cities, 1200–1970. From Ted Robert Gurr, "Historical Trends in Violent Crime: A Critical Review of the Evidence," Crime and Justice 3 (1981): 313.
Homicide in Europe
• Long-term homicide rates per 100,000 population in Scandinavia and England, North and South. Calculated from Manuel Eisner, "Modernization, Self-Control and Lethal Violence: The Long-Term Dynamics of European Homicide Rates in Theoretical Perspective," British Journal of Criminology 41 (2001): 618–638.
Murder Rates in NYC and Los Angeles, 1800-2000
American and European Murder Rates
TABLE 1Estimates of European and American Murder Rates
Era Pre-1850 1850–2000
NYC murder rate 5 10
European murder rate 2.7 2.1
Sources: Estimated from Monkkonen, Murder in New York City, and Eisner, "Modernization, Self-Control and Lethal Violence."
Iraq War Civilian Deaths from Violence
US Military Iraq War Deaths, 2003-2008
Coalition Deaths, 2003-2010
To learn more…
• Take History 595, Quantitative Analysis of Historical Data
• Read Numbers!• Browse www.census.gov or United
Nations website, for example, http://www.unfpa.org/swp/ or http://esa.un.org/unpp/
• When you read a “quantitative” assessment, ask what it really means…