Quantifying tradeoffs between ecology, economy and climate in the Northern California Current Ecosystem Jodie E. Little 1, R.C. Francis 1, M.G. Dalton.

Quantifying tradeoffs between ecology, economy and climate in the Northern California Current Ecosystem

Jodie E. Little1, R.C. Francis1, M.G. Dalton2 and J.C. Field3

1School of Aquatic & Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA

2AFSC, NMFS, NOAA, Seattle, WA3Santa Cruz Laboratory, NMFS, NOAA, Santa Cruz, CA

Wash.

Oregon

California

Northern California Current Ecosystem (NCCE)

1960 2000

-

10

20

30

40

ma

mm

als

bir

ds

salm

on

flatfi

sh

rock

fish

rou

nd

fish

ha

ke

fora

ge

fish

cru

sta

cea

ns

zoo

pla

nkt

on

BIO

MA

SS

(m

t/k

m2

)

82.4BIOMASS

-

20

40

60

80

salm

on

tro

ll

fixe

d g

ea

r

bo

ttom

tra

wl

ha

ke tr

aw

l

cra

b p

ot

shri

mp

tra

wl

RE

VE

NU

E (

mill

ion

$)

REVENUE

Baseline: year 2000

how do ecology and economy respond to…

1. different CLIMATE

2. additional FISHING effort

3. CLIMATE & FISHING

*all scenarios for year 2000 and year 1960 systems*

SCENARIOS

SCENARIO 1: Climate

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Bottom Up Index (Logerwell)

Top Down Index (PDO)

SCENARIO 1: Climate

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Bottom Up Index (Logerwell)

Top Down Index (PDO)

…to 2100

Average 1960-2000

SCENARIO 1: Climate

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Bottom Up Index (Logerwell)

Top Down Index (PDO)

…to 2100

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Average 1963-76

SCENARIO 1: Climate

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Bottom Up Index (Logerwell)

Top Down Index (PDO)

…to 2100

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Average 1977-98

SCENARIO 1: Climate

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

BASELINECLIMATE

63-76CLIMATE

77-98CLIMATE

% C

HA

NG

E F

RO

M Y

R. 2

00

0 B

AS

EL

INE

zooplankton

crustaceans

forage fish

hake

roundfish

rockfish

flatfish

salmon

birds

mammals

total

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

BASELINECLIMATE

63-76CLIMATE

77-98CLIMATE

shrimp trawl

crab pot

hake trawl

bottom trawl

fixed gear

salmon troll

total

BIOMASS REVENUE

SCENARIO 1: Climate

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

BASELINECLIMATE

63-76CLIMATE

77-98CLIMATE

% C

HA

NG

E F

RO

M Y

R. 2

00

0 B

AS

EL

INE

zooplankton

crustaceans

forage fish

hake

roundfish

rockfish

flatfish

salmon

birds

mammals

total

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

BASELINECLIMATE

63-76CLIMATE

77-98CLIMATE

shrimp trawl

crab pot

hake trawl

bottom trawl

fixed gear

salmon troll

total

BIOMASS REVENUE

SCENARIO 1: Climate

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

BASELINECLIMATE

63-76CLIMATE

77-98CLIMATE

% C

HA

NG

E F

RO

M Y

R. 2

00

0 B

AS

EL

INE

zooplankton

crustaceans

forage fish

hake

roundfish

rockfish

flatfish

salmon

birds

mammals

total

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

BASELINECLIMATE

63-76CLIMATE

77-98CLIMATE

shrimp trawl

crab pot

hake trawl

bottom trawl

fixed gear

salmon troll

total

BIOMASS REVENUE

SCENARIO 1: Climate

-100%

0%

100%

200%

300%

400%

500%

mam

mal

s

bird

s

salm

on

flatfi

sh

rock

fish

roun

dfis

h

hake

fora

ge fi

sh

crus

tace

ans

zoop

lank

ton

salm

on tr

oll

fixed

gea

r

botto

m tr

awl

hake

traw

l

crab

pot

shrim

p tra

wl

% C

HA

NG

E F

RO

M Y

R. 2

000

BA

SE

LIN

E

-100%

0%

100%

200%

300%

400%

500%

mam

mal

s

bird

s

salm

on

flatfi

sh

rock

fish

roun

dfis

h

hake

fora

ge fi

sh

crus

tace

ans

zoop

lank

ton

salm

on tr

oll

fixed

gea

r

botto

m tr

awl

hake

traw

l

crab

pot

shrim

p tra

wl

63-76 CLIMATE

BASELINE CLIMATE

77-98 CLIMATE

-100%

0%

100%

200%

300%

400%

500%

mam

mal

s

bird

s

salm

on

flatfi

sh

rock

fish

roun

dfis

h

hake

fora

ge fi

sh

crus

tace

ans

zoop

lank

ton

salm

on tr

oll

fixed

gea

r

botto

m tr

awl

hake

traw

l

crab

pot

shrim

p tra

wl

63-76 CLIMATE

BASELINE CLIMATE

77-98 CLIMATE

BIOMASS REVENUE

SCENARIO 1: Climate

Compared to year 1960 system?

SCENARIO 1: Climate

-

10

20

30

40

ma

mm

als

bir

ds

salm

on

flatfi

sh

rock

fish

rou

nd

fish

ha

ke

fora

ge

fish

cru

sta

cea

ns

zoo

pla

nkt

on

BIO

MA

SS

(m

t/k

m2

)

2000 system

1960 system

-

20

40

60

80

salm

on

tro

ll

fixe

d g

ea

r

bo

ttom

tra

wl

ha

ke tr

aw

l

cra

b p

ot

shri

mp

tra

wl

RE

VE

NU

E (

mill

ion

$)

2000 system

1960 system

BIOMASS REVENUE

SCENARIO 1: Climate

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

BASELINECLIMATE

63-76CLIMATE

77-98CLIMATE

% C

HA

NG

E F

RO

M Y

R. 2

00

0 B

AS

EL

INE

zooplankton

crustaceans

forage fish

hake

roundfish

rockfish

flatfish

salmon

birds

mammals

total

2000 SYSTEM 1960 SYSTEM

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

BASELINECLIMATE

63-76CLIMATE

77-98CLIMATE

zooplankton

salmon

roundfish

rockfish

mammals

hake

forage fish

flatfish

crustaceans

birds

total

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

BASELINECLIMATE

63-76CLIMATE

77-98CLIMATE

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

BASELINECLIMATE

63-76CLIMATE

77-98CLIMATE

zooplankton

crustaceans

forage fish

hake

roundfish

rockfish

flatfish

salmon

birds

mammals

total

SCENARIO 1: Climate

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

BASELINECLIMATE

63-76CLIMATE

77-98CLIMATE

2000 SYSTEM

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

BASELINECLIMATE

63-76CLIMATE

77-98CLIMATE

shrimp trawl

crab pot

hake trawl

bottom trawl

fixed gear

salmon troll

total

1960 SYSTEM

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

BA

SE

LIN

EC

LIM

ATE

63-7

6 C

LIM

ATE

77-9

8 C

LIM

ATE

shrimp trawl

crab pot

hake trawl

bottom trawl

fixed gear

salmon

total

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

BASELINECLIMATE

63-76CLIMATE

77-98CLIMATE

SCENARIO 1: Climate

SCENARIO 1: Climate

SCENARIO 2: Fishing

Are we measuring

RESILIENCE?

from Walker et al. 04

SCENARIO 2: Fishing

SCENARIO 2: Fishing

SCENARIO 2: Fishing

SCENARIO 2: Fishing

SCENARIO 2: Fishing

SCENARIO 2: Fishing

SCENARIO 3: Climate & Fishing

SCENARIO 3: Climate & Fishing

-100%

0%

100%

200%

300%

400%

500%

mam

mal

s

bird

s

salm

on

flatfi

sh

rock

fish

roun

dfis

h

hake

fora

ge fi

sh

crus

tace

ans

zoop

lank

ton

salm

on tr

oll

fixed

gea

r

botto

m tr

awl

hake

traw

l

crab

pot

shrim

p tra

wl

% C

HA

NG

E F

RO

M Y

R. 2

000

BA

SE

LIN

E

-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

50

%-

- cu

rre

nt

40

%-

- cu

rre

nt

30

%-

- cu

rre

nt

20

%-

-cu

rre

nt

10

%-

-cu

rre

nt

Eq

- c

urr

en

t

10

%+

- c

urr

en

t

20

%+

- c

urr

en

t

30

%+

- c

urr

en

t

40

%+

- c

urr

en

t

50

%+

- c

urr

en

t

-1

-0.75

-0.5

-0.25

0

0.25

0.5

0.75

1

-50%

-25%

0%

25%

50%

75%

63-76CLIMATE

77-98CLIMATE

shrimp trawl

crab pot

hake trawl

bottom trawl

fixed gear

salmon

total

REVENUE

-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.0050

%-

- cu

rren

t

40%

- -

curr

ent

30%

- -

curr

ent

20%

- -c

urre

nt

10%

- -c

urre

nt

Eq

- cu

rren

t

10%

+ -

cur

rent

20%

+ -

cur

rent

30%

+ -

cur

rent

40%

+ -

cur

rent

50%

+ -

cur

rent

63-76 CLIMATE

-1.00

-0.75

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

50%

- -cu

rrent

40%

- -cu

rrent

30%

- -cu

rrent

20%

- -cu

rrent

10%

- -cu

rrent

Eq -

curre

nt

10%

+ -

curre

nt20

%+

-cu

rrent

30%

+ -

curre

nt40

%+

-cu

rrent

50%

+ -

curre

nt

-1

-0.75

-0.5

-0.25

0

0.25

0.5

0.75

1

77-98 CLIMATE

SUMMARY

thanks to: WA Sea Grant, IPDES, SAFS