Copyright University of Reading QUANTIFYING THE UNCERTAINTY IN VOLCANIC ASH FORECASTS 1 Department of Meteorology Helen Dacre 1 , Natalie Harvey 1 , Kelsey Mulder 1 , Nathan Huntley 2 , David Thomson 3 , Helen Webster 3 , Peter Webley 4 , Don Morton 4 1. University of Reading, 2. University of Durham, 3. Met Office, 4. University of Alaska, Fairbanks
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QUANTIFYING THE UNCERTAINTY IN VOLCANIC ASH FORECASTS · QUANTIFYING THE UNCERTAINTY IN VOLCANIC ASH FORECASTS 1 Department of Meteorology Helen Dacre 1, Natalie Harvey , Kelsey Mulder
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Copyright University of Reading
QUANTIFYING THE UNCERTAINTY IN VOLCANIC ASH FORECASTS
1
Department of Meteorology
Helen Dacre1, Natalie Harvey1, Kelsey Mulder1, Nathan Huntley2,
David Thomson3, Helen Webster3, Peter Webley4, Don Morton4
1. University of Reading, 2. University of Durham, 3. Met Office, 4. University
of Alaska, Fairbanks
USERS INFER UNCERTAINTY IN
VOLCANIC ASH FORECASTS
2
Area of no-fly zone
Heat map showing
no-fly zones
Mulder et al. 2017 (WCAS)
Q. Given the forecast below, draw a no-fly zone
VOLCANIC ASH PREDICTION • Real time forecasts and future risk to infrastructure