Quantification from a TB Perspective PSM Workshop to Develop GFATM PSM plans for HIV, TB and Malaria 20-24 February 2006, Nairobi
Quantification from a TB Perspective
PSM Workshop to Develop GFATM PSM plans for HIV, TB and Malaria
20-24 February 2006, Nairobi
Framework: Pharmaceutical Management Cycle
Selection
ProcurementManagementSupport
Distribution
Use
Policy and Legal Framework
Quantification
Quantifying Medicines and Supplies Needs
Purpose To estimate the quantity of medicines needed to ensure an uninterrupted supply and to fully cover estimated TB treatment requirements
Applications of Quantification (1)
• Prepare and justify a drug budget (e.g. for GFATM)
• Plan for new and expanding tuberculosis programs—e.g. DOTS expansion to other districts
• Optimize medicine budgets based on TB cases to be treated and the most cost-effective treatment approaches
QUAN 3
Applications of Quantification (2)
• Calculate emergency needs for disaster relief and epidemics
• Replenish an existing supply network that has become depleted of products
• Compare current consumption of medicines with tuberculosis treatment priorities and usage in other health systems
QUAN 4
Critical Issues in Quantification (1)
QUAN 7
1. Developing the medicine list (selection)
2. Preparing an action plan for quantification
3. Using centralized or decentralized quantification
4. Using manual or computerized methods for quantification
5. Estimating time requirements, including procurement period, stock-outs, safety stock
6. Filling the supply pipeline
Critical Issues in Quantification (2)
QUAN 8
7. Considering the impact of lead time at all levels (buffer stock: 6 months national; 3 months district)
8. Adjusting for program growth and for losses due to waste and theft
9. Cross-checking estimates produced with previous years of alternative methods
10.Estimating total procurement cost
11. Adjusting and reconciling final quantities in accordance with available funds
Quantification is difficult
• Must know accurate number of patients at all levels
• Must know number of patients in each category of treatment
• Must accurately calculate the quantity of each medicine and supplies needed to avoid under or over stock
Options for Quantification
1. Morbidity based: this is the WHO-recommended method that bases estimates on number of cases
2. Consumption based: An alternative method available to systems with a functioning DMIS to base estimate on past consumption—also useful for ordering or replacing stocks
3. Adjusted-consumption based: Estimates based on data from another region or health service
QUAN 5
Comparison of Quantification Methods
QUAN8
Consumption versus Morbidity
• Consumption – need good inventory records
• Morbidity- need patient attendance data
• Both methods – need data on existing stocks, lead times, costs
Morbidity Method (1)
1. Estimate number of expected cases per disease category in the projected year – e.g. 1000 cases category I for 12 months
2. Identify the number of tablets of each medicine selected to treat category I TB patient– 504 of isoniazid/rifampicin (RH)– 168 of pyrazinamide (Z)– 168 of ethambutol (E)
Morbidity Method (2)
3. Account for new cases during stock-out periods, safety stock, procurement period, and lead time
– 8 months total or 1000 category I cases
4. Multiply the number of tablets required by the total estimated cases
– 1000 category I cases x 504 units isoniazid/rifampicin = 504,000
– 1000 category I cases x 168 units pyrazinamide = 168,000
– 1000 category I cases x 168 units ethambutol = 168,000
Then add to these totals the number of tablets equal to an 8-month supply (504,000 x 1.67—8/12)
5. Subtract stock on hand and the result is amount to procure
Example of spreadsheet – Morbidity Method (1)
*Adjusted order factor in years: equals lead time plus safety stock (e.g., 6 months + 2 month = 8months = 0.67 years)
Treatment
Category
(A) Estimated Cases for
Year
(B) (C) (D) (E) (F)
Basic Units per Case (e.g.,
tab, vial)
Total Basic Units per
Product Needed
Adjusted Order
Factor *Quantity in
Stock
Total Quantity to
Procure
(A x B) (0.67 x C)
RH 150/75 mg tabs Cat. I 1000 504 504,000 337,680 52,000 789,680
Z 400 mg tabs Cat. I 1000 168 168,000 112,560 15,000 265,560
E 400 mg tabs Cat. I 1000 168 168,000 112,560 9,800 270,760
Example of spreadsheet – Morbidity Method (2)
Treatment Category
(G) Units per container (blister)
(H) (I) (J)
Number contain ers (blister) to
buy Container (blister)
Price Total Price US$
(F/G) (G x H)
RH 150/75 mg tabs Cat. I 28 28,203 0.70 19,742
Z 400 mg tabs Cat. I 28 9,484 0.37 3,509
E 400 mg tabs Cat. I 28 9,670 0.57 5,512
Consumption Method (1)
1. Divide total annual consumption of specific medicine units by 12 to get average monthly consumption
– Isoniazid/Rifampicin = 259,200 ÷ 12 = 21,600 units/month
2. Account for amount of units required monthly and taking into account stock-out periods, safety stock, procurement period, and lead time
– 8 months: 21,600 x 8 = 172,800 additional units
Consumption Method (2)
3. Combine total annual consumption with buffer amounts to get total number of units to be ordered – 259,200 + 172,800 = 432,000 units total
4. Subtract any stock on hand
Example of spreadsheet – Consumption Method
(CT) (Dos) (Ca)
DRUG NAME STRENGTH (BU) BU BURifampicin-Isoniazid 150/75 mg TAB 672 259,200 0 21,600Pyrazinamide 400MG TAB 672 168,000 0 14,000Ethambutol 400MG TAB 672 168,000 0 14,000
BASIC unit
PACK SIZE
(28 tabs/ blister,24 blisters)
TOTAL CONSUMP
TION IN PERIOD
DAYS OUT OF STOCK
AVG MTHLY
CONSUMPTION
See handouts in participant’s notebooks for rest of spreadsheet
Adjusted-Consumption Method
• When neither consumption nor morbidity method is feasible
• This option extrapolates consumption data from another region or health system– population-based (medicine use x 1000
population)
– service-based (medicine use per specific patient or case)
How to make TB quantification easier?
• Use fixed dose combination medicines with 3 or 4 medicines in one tablet
• Use patient kits where all medicines needed for a full course of treatment are in one product (patient pack)
• Both reduce the number of products to count
For example:Current regimen: (RH)+ Z+ E = 3 products
If use 4 FDC (RHZE) = 1 product If use patient kit = 1 product
Summary – Quantification
• Needed for:– Planning, budgeting, and ordering
• Critical issues:– Must first have good selection of drugs
– Decide who will quantify – centralized (NTP) vs. decentralized activity
– Tools to use - manual vs. computerized
– Knowledge of lead times, stock-outs, safety stock, growth, losses, existing stocks
– Reconcile quantities needed with budget