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Quality Growth Equity Management Quarter Ended September 30, 2016 5 Houston Center 1401 McKinney, Suite 1600 Houston, TX 77010 Tel: (713) 853-2359 Fax: (713) 853-2300 [email protected] www.GarciaHamiltonAssociates.com Awards/rankings may not represent client experiences and are not indicative of future performance. Go to www.garciahamiltonassociates.com/awards/ for additional information on each award. Presented By: Curt Rohrman, CFA Partner, Director of Equity Investments
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Quality Growth Equity Management · full year earnings will decline for the first time since the financial crisis, with 2016 estimates 1.5% below 2015. Market valuations at 17.5x

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Page 1: Quality Growth Equity Management · full year earnings will decline for the first time since the financial crisis, with 2016 estimates 1.5% below 2015. Market valuations at 17.5x

Quality Growth Equity ManagementQuarter Ended September 30, 2016

5 Houston Center1401 McKinney, Suite 1600

Houston, TX 77010Tel: (713) 853-2359Fax: (713) 853-2300

Ruby@GarciaHamiltonAssociates.comwww.GarciaHamiltonAssociates.com Awards/rankings may not represent client experiences and are not indicative of future performance. Go to www.garciahamiltonassociates.com/awards/ for additional information on each award.

Presented By:

Curt Rohrman, CFAPartner, Director of Equity Investments

Page 2: Quality Growth Equity Management · full year earnings will decline for the first time since the financial crisis, with 2016 estimates 1.5% below 2015. Market valuations at 17.5x

Investment Philosophy

1

DIVERSIFICATION

QUALITY

GROWTH

Invest in companies with above-average sustainable growth and/or accelerating growth and an ability to beat earnings expectations over time.

Buy quality companies. Various quality rankings and other metrics which demonstrate quality are evaluated carefully before a stock is added to the portfolio.

Primarily use our proprietary screening process and bottom-up work to determine relative sector weights. Portfolio constraints exist to ensure sufficient diversification to control risk.

Page 3: Quality Growth Equity Management · full year earnings will decline for the first time since the financial crisis, with 2016 estimates 1.5% below 2015. Market valuations at 17.5x

3rd Quarter 2016 Quick Take

2

The Market Stocks finished with decent returns during a low-volatility quarter. Strangely, low-quality and small-capitalization

stocks led, even while mega-cap technology stocks (Apple, Microsoft, Google) posted strong gains. For the quarter, the S&P 500 Index increased 3.9% including dividends. The Russell 1000 Growth Index rose 4.6%.

Global growth remains anemic. The U.S. Federal Reserve is walking a tight line: deferring a second interest rate hike, yet trying to convince the public that economic improvement is underway.

Earnings estimate cuts continued, reflecting the disappointing global economy. Third quarter earnings might be 1.9% below year ago levels, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of lower year-to-year profits. In all likelihood, full year earnings will decline for the first time since the financial crisis, with 2016 estimates 1.5% below 2015.

Market valuations at 17.5x forward earnings are at the upper end of historical ranges.

The Portfolio The portfolio gained 3.9% in the quarter, 70 basis points shy of the benchmark Russell 1000 Growth Index.

The shortfall is attributable to 177 basis points of low-quality headwinds as stocks rated “A+” or “A” actually declined during the period. Stock selection was good, providing 216 basis points of positive performance.

Our market outlook is somewhat cautious, with U.S. Federal Reserve dictating stock market direction near term.

The portfolio remains conservatively positioned with a meaningful overweight in high-quality stocks.

Page 4: Quality Growth Equity Management · full year earnings will decline for the first time since the financial crisis, with 2016 estimates 1.5% below 2015. Market valuations at 17.5x

-5%

0%

5%

S&P 500 3Q 2016

Aug

ust

Sept

embe

r

3.85%

3.84%4.52%

9.05%

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

Russell Top 200 Russell Midcap Russell 2000

Performance by Capitalization 3Q 2016

3

3rd Quarter 2016 Equity Market Commentary

Sources: Bloomberg, Russell Investments

4.58%

13.75%

3.48%

16.18%

0%

6%

12%

18%

3Q16 Trailing Twelve Months

Growth vs. Value

Russell 1000 Growth Russell 1000 Value

Stocks posted attractive gains for the quarter, with the S&P 500 Index up 3.9% including dividends. Investors sought an unusual mix of equities:low-quality stocks, small capitalization stocks, and mega-cap tech stocks, such as Apple, Google, and Microsoft. U.S. Federal Reserve statementsand actions reflected disagreement among committee members, with a second rate hike pushed out, again. Measures of economic data aroundthe world remained disappointing. Deutsche Bank’s potential impact on global financial markets drew attention late in the period.

o Earnings estimate cuts continued. Reductions have occurred across most sectors, except Technology. For the first time since the financial crisis of 2009, fullyear earnings might decline as 2016 projections are 1% below 2015 levels. Third quarter 2016 earnings are estimated to have decreased 2%, marking thesixth consecutive quarter of down year-over-year earnings.

Returns by market capitalization were linear in the “risk-on” environment, with the smallest indices performing best and the largest lagging themost. A big bounce in selected mega-cap tech names was offset by poor performance among large cap Consumer Staple and Healthcare stocks.

o Stocks offering better yields generally underperformed this period, though more than the mild (14 bp) rise in 5-year Treasury rates would suggest. This shiftfavored small capitalization stocks which often provide no dividend yield.

Growth-oriented indices outperformed Value-oriented styles due to heavier weightings in Information Technology, the best performing sector byfar across capitalization ranges, consistent with a “risk-on” rotation.

o Since the March 2009 stock market bottom, risk factors have dictated returns more than individual company fundamentals and balance sheets.

July

Page 5: Quality Growth Equity Management · full year earnings will decline for the first time since the financial crisis, with 2016 estimates 1.5% below 2015. Market valuations at 17.5x

4

Telecom

Utilities

Cons. Staples

Health Care

Energy

Cons. Disc.

Materials

Industrials

Financials

IT

-10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%

S&P 500 Sector Performance – 3rd Qtr 2016 Russell 1000 Growth Sector Performance – 3rd Qtr 2016

Cons. Staples

Telecom

Health Care

Financials

Industrials

Cons. Disc.

Materials

Utilities

IT

Energy

-10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%

Source: Thomson Analytics

3rd Quarter 2016 Equity Market Commentary

Information Technology was the most significant contributor to index performance during the third quarter. Attractive trends inTechnology include the shift to cloud computing, increasingly interconnected devices (Internet of Things), and visions of autonomouselectrical vehicles. With that said, roughly half of the sector’s returns can be attributed to mega-caps Apple, Google, and Microsoft, eachof which bounced back after declining 6.7% to 11.8% during the previous (June 2016) quarter.

Sectors traditionally considered defensive were a source of funds. A portion of the declines in higher-yielding sectors may be attributed tothe modest rise in interest rates. In addition, investor preference for low-quality stocks hurt the Consumer Staples sector while U.S.Presidential election rhetoric and drug pricing concerns weighed on the Healthcare sector.

Page 6: Quality Growth Equity Management · full year earnings will decline for the first time since the financial crisis, with 2016 estimates 1.5% below 2015. Market valuations at 17.5x

September 30, 2016

3rd Quarter 2016 Intra-Quarter Volatility

Portfolio’s High-Quality Stance Was Beneficial During Intra-Quarter Downturns

Period# Trading

Days

Russell1KG

Return

GHAReturn

RelativeOutperformance

% of Index Decline

9/19/14 - 10/13/14 16 -7.02% -5.06% 1.96% 72.08%

8/19/15 - 8/24/15 3 -9.14% -8.39% 0.75% 91.79%

12/29/15 - 2/12/16 32 -11.25% -9.00% 2.25% 80.00%

6/23/16 - 6/27/16 2 -5.13% -4.24% 0.89% 82.65%

Quarter 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16

Russell 1KGReturn

4.78% 3.84% 0.12% -5.29% 7.32% 0.74% 0.61% 4.58%

Only One Down Quarter Over Past 2 Years

Quarterly Returns Have Masked Considerable Intra-Quarter Volatility

Compound annual return for full period September 30, 2014 – September 30, 2016: Russell 1KG = 8.35%; GHA = 6.85%.5

Page 7: Quality Growth Equity Management · full year earnings will decline for the first time since the financial crisis, with 2016 estimates 1.5% below 2015. Market valuations at 17.5x

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Sector DiversificationSeptember 30, 2016

Portfolio

R1000G

6

Current Portfolio Positioning:

DIVERSIFICATIONDIVERSIFICATION

Source: Thomson Analytics

The portfolio remains significantly overweight high-quality stocks anticipated to produce superior earnings growth over the course of aneconomic cycle. This posture seems appropriate in an environment of slowing economic growth, declining profits and rising valuations. Yet,this environment also makes it increasingly difficult to identify new ideas meeting our investment parameters.

o Holdings rated “A+” or “A” by S&P Earnings and Dividend Quality Rankings comprise 45% of the portfolio, double the benchmark’s weighting.

o Consumer Staples and Industrials are the most overweight sectors. Consumer Staples provide high-quality balance sheets and steady growth in adifficult environment. High-quality Defense stocks account for the Industrial overweight, as military budget funding is set to increase for several years.

o An underweight position in InformationTechnology is mostly attributable to underweights in large benchmark names: Apple, Facebook,and Microsoft.

o Cash positions reflect difficulty in finding high-quality growth companies meeting our investment criteria, rather than a strategic investment decision.

3rd Quarter 2016 Equity Portfolio Commentary

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

A+ A A- B+ B B- C NR

Quality WeightingsSeptember 30, 2016

Portfolio

R1000G

Con

s Sta

pl

Ener

gy

Fina

ncia

ls

Hea

lth C

are

Indu

stri

als

Info

Tec

h

Mat

eria

ls

Tele

com

Util

ities

Con

s Disc

Page 8: Quality Growth Equity Management · full year earnings will decline for the first time since the financial crisis, with 2016 estimates 1.5% below 2015. Market valuations at 17.5x

7

Current Equity Market Outlook

S&P 500 NTM P/E with Long –Term AverageConsensus S&P 500

Operating Earnings Estimates

Central banker statements are driving market movements, rendering fundamentals virtually irrelevant.

o A viable exit strategy is not clear. Global central bank liquidity programs have driven asset prices higher and interest rates lower. Yet, these programshave long since benefited real economies, and may, in fact, be harming economic activity. The process of removing liquidity is sure to be problematic asfinancial markets unwind positions and discount the prospect of higher interest rates. Current central bank policy seems to be communication-to-the-point-of-confusion in hopes of buying time.

o ChairYellen recently admitted the Federal Reserve would be open to buying equities.This troubling revelation strikes at the heart of capitalism.

• Similar to several previous quarters, September quarter earnings expectations have been revised lower and actual results may surprise positively. Still a quarter away from year end, managements are unlikely to provide forecasts for 2017. Eventually, 2017 expectations are apt to be revised lower.

o Irrespective of corporate earnings, global central banks seem unwavering in their support of stock prices, determined to suppress volatility.

o P/E multiple of 17.5x forward S&P 500 Index earnings borders the high end of the range, consistent with sustained low inflation.

Source: Thomson Reuters

2016 2017

$ Level Y/Y $ Level Y/Y

Q1 26.66 -6.8% 30.48 14.3%

Q2 29.13 -3.0% 32.52 11.6%

Q3 29.71 -1.9% 33.74 13.6%

Q4 30.98 5.7% 35.30 14.0%

CY 116.48 -1.5% 132.04 13.4%

17.50x

13.91x

5x

10x

15x

20x

25x

30x

'50 '55 '60 '65 '70 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15

Page 9: Quality Growth Equity Management · full year earnings will decline for the first time since the financial crisis, with 2016 estimates 1.5% below 2015. Market valuations at 17.5x

8

-40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20

Materials

Financials

Info Tech

Utilities

Cons Disc

Telecom

Energy

Cons Stpls

Industrials

Health Care

Basis Point Contribution Relative to R1G

Allocation + Selection

-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50

Qualcomm Inc

Ebay Inc

Edwards Lifesciences Corp

Altria Group Inc

Yum! Brands Inc

Apple Inc

Johnson & Johnson

Orbital ATK Inc

CVS Health Corp

Walt Disney Co

Basis Point Contribution Relative to R1G

Top Stock Contributors & Detractors

3rd Quarter 2016 Equity Portfolio Commentary

Source: Thomson Analytics

For the quarter, the portfolio underperformed the benchmark by 70 basis points.o All of the shortfall can be attributed to the portfolio’s high-quality position as quality allocation reduced performance by 177 basis points.o Cash holdings limited performance by an additional 27 basis points.

Stock selection was strong this quarter, providing 216 basis points of positive relative performance.o Top performing holdings included Qualcomm (+41bp), eBay, (+17bp) and Edwards Lifesciences, a leader in transcatheter heart valves (+16bp). o High-quality holdings experiencing disappointing returns in the low-quality environment included Walt Disney, CVS Health and Johnson &

Johnson.

Sector allocation reduced performance by 82 basis points, mostly due to an underweight in InformationTechnology.o Positive stock selection in Technology more than offset the underweight position as the sector contributed 6bp to relative performance in total.o Another reflection of the portfolio’s quality bias was an overweight in Consumer Staples, which reduced performance by 26bp.

Page 10: Quality Growth Equity Management · full year earnings will decline for the first time since the financial crisis, with 2016 estimates 1.5% below 2015. Market valuations at 17.5x

9

% Change

Active Weight

Basis Point Contribution Sector Industry Comment

Qualcomm 29.0% 1.82% +41bpsInformationTechnology

Communications Equipment

As the owner of all relevant CDMA technology patents, QCOM receives royalties on virtually every mobile device sold globally and holds a leading share in cellular modem chipsets. After a very difficult 12 month period, the shares rallied on new design wins, resolution of licensing disagreements, and rumors of an accretive acquisition. Offering a 2.7% dividend yield, a solid balance sheet and trading at just 14 times next year’s earnings, the company remains an excellent investment opportunity.

eBay 40.5% 0.45% +17bpsInformationTechnology

Internet Software & Services

eBay is a leading global online marketplace for the sale of goods and services, generally for third party sellers and independent buyers. Beyond the core eBay marketplace, sites include StubHub, Shopping.com, Rent.com, and Half.com. Paypal was spun-off to shareholders during 2015. Recent improvements to the eBay website have ignited sales growth following a difficult period impacted by data breaches, changes to external search engines, and a cluttered website. Recurring rumors suggest international ecommerce companies could acquire eBay.

Edwards Lifesciences 20.9% 1.06% +16bps Healthcare Healthcare Equipment

Edwards Lifesciences is a global leader in heart valves and hemodynamic monitoring. Revenue growth has been robust since the initial approval of the SAPIEN transcatheter heart valve in 2011, a minimally-invasive heart valve replacement alternative to open-heart surgery. Increasing clinical usage and data have proven the superior safety and recovery time of the procedure, expanding approvals to include lower-risk patient pools and international geographies, accelerating revenue gains further.

% Change

ActiveWeight

Basis Point Contribution Sector Industry Comment

Walt Disney -4.4% 2.25% -21bpsConsumer Discretion Movies & Entertainment

Disney is a diversified entertainment company with properties including movie studios, theme parks, cable and broadcast networks, consumer products, and cruise ships. Shares have been pressured on declining network subscriber counts, particularly at ESPN, as viewership shifts to streaming media. Star Wars success makes for tough box office comparisons. Yet, Shanghai Disneyland attendance has exceeded expectations and the acquisition of BAMTech positions Disney for a post-cable world. Share repurchase activity continues.

CVS Health -6.6% 1.76% -21bpsConsumer

Staples Drug Retail

CVS is an integrated health care provider in the United States, focused on improving outcomes and reducing costs through 9,600 retail locations, 1,100 walk-in Minute Clinics, 75 million pharmacy benefit management (PBM) members, and 1 million dedicated senior pharmacy care patients. The long-term, high-quality holding has been pressured on fears of drug price cuts, increased competition for PBM contracts, and sluggish front-end sales. Trading at just 13 times next year’s earnings, valuation is now near the financial crisis lows.

Orbital ATK -12.7% 0.69% -18bps Industrials Aerospace & Defense

OA designs and manufactures aerospace and defense products for the U.S. government, allied nations, law enforcement agencies and commercial space customers. Formed with the merger of Orbital Sciences and ATK, products include launch vehicles, propulsion systems, structures, and ammunition. During the quarter, OA disclosed accounting issues related to at least one government supplies contract and a delay in financial statement filings for the duration of an investigation. The shares were sold from the portfolio.

What Did Not:

What Worked:

3rd Quarter 2016 Equity Portfolio Commentary

Page 11: Quality Growth Equity Management · full year earnings will decline for the first time since the financial crisis, with 2016 estimates 1.5% below 2015. Market valuations at 17.5x

10

September 30, 2016

Current Equity Market Factors

Factor Position

Sentiment Sentiment indicators continue reflect a balance between bulls and bears.Neutral

MonetaryReal and nominal levels of growth in the monetary aggregates remain stable near historical averages. Neutral

Valuation Our Valuation Model for the S&P 500 continues to suggest stocks are undervalued. Positive

EconomicOur Liquidity Model remains at relatively low levels.The current reading is consistent with 1.5% growth in GDP. Neutral

EarningsEarnings revisions remain negative on balance and aggregate consensus estimates suggest no growth over the next 12 months. As a result, our outlook for earnings is negative. Negative

Inflation Despite growing concerns of deflation, longer-term expectations remain very stable. Neutral

Page 12: Quality Growth Equity Management · full year earnings will decline for the first time since the financial crisis, with 2016 estimates 1.5% below 2015. Market valuations at 17.5x

11

Sentiment is Neutral

Source: Investors Intelligence

Last Updated: 9/30/2016

Market Factors

Sentiment indicators continue to reflect a balance between bulls and bears.

Page 13: Quality Growth Equity Management · full year earnings will decline for the first time since the financial crisis, with 2016 estimates 1.5% below 2015. Market valuations at 17.5x

12

The Monetary Environment Is Neutral

Sources: St. Louis Federal Reserve, Bloomberg

Last Updated: 9/30/2016

Market Factors

Real and nominal levels of growth in the monetary aggregates remain stable near historical averages.

Page 14: Quality Growth Equity Management · full year earnings will decline for the first time since the financial crisis, with 2016 estimates 1.5% below 2015. Market valuations at 17.5x

13

Valuation is Positive

Sources: Thomson Financial, Bloomberg, GH&A Research

Last Updated: 9/30/2016

Our Valuation Model for the S&P 500 continues to suggest stocks are undervalued.

Market Factors

Page 15: Quality Growth Equity Management · full year earnings will decline for the first time since the financial crisis, with 2016 estimates 1.5% below 2015. Market valuations at 17.5x

14

The Economic Outlook is Neutral

Sources: Bloomberg, GH&A Research

Last Updated: 9/30/2016

Our Liquidity Model remains at relatively low levels. The current reading is consistent with 1.5% growth in GDP.

Market Factors

Page 16: Quality Growth Equity Management · full year earnings will decline for the first time since the financial crisis, with 2016 estimates 1.5% below 2015. Market valuations at 17.5x

15

Earnings are Negative

Sources: Thomson Financial, Barron’s, GH&A Research

Last Updated: 9/30/2016

Earnings revisions remain negative on balance and aggregate consensus estimates suggest no growth over the next 12 months. As a result, our outlook for earnings is negative.

Market Factors

Page 17: Quality Growth Equity Management · full year earnings will decline for the first time since the financial crisis, with 2016 estimates 1.5% below 2015. Market valuations at 17.5x

16

Inflation is Neutral

Sources: Bloomberg, GH&A Research

Last Updated: 9/30/2016

Despite growing concerns of deflation, longer-term expectations remain very stable.

Market Factors