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Residential installations in Colorado doubled in Q3 to 9.3 MW. This is due largely to the
Governor’s Energy Offi ce, which offers ARRA-funded rebates of up to $1.50/W for non-Xcel
Energy and non-Black Hills Energy customers that previously had no available rebates.
This program, which began in April 2010, is still running, and will continue until the end
of 2011 (or until ARRA funding runs dry). We anticipate continued residential market
strength in Colorado in the meantime, followed by a likely drop after the program expires.
Total installations fell slightly in the third quarter of 2010 from 192 MW to 188 MW. However,
this is not indicative of a decline in overall market strength. Figure 2–4 displays demand trends
by market segment in the fi rst three quarters of 2010. Clearly, each market segment (residential,
non-residential, and utility) has experienced different growth patterns throughout the year.
• UTILITY installations fell substantially in the third quarter. Only one large project was connected to the grid during that period. However, utility installations will undoubtedly recover in the fourth quarter.
• NON-RESIDENTIAL installations (which includes commercial, public sector, non-profi t, and school district) were the main growth driver in the third quarter, growing 38% quarter-over-quarter.
• RESIDENTIAL installations have seen the most stability of any market segment in 2010, growing slightly each quarter. The residential market is still experiencing the benefi ts of funding pockets provided by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA), and the 2008 removal of the cap on the Federal Residential Investment Tax Credit (ITC) remains the primary enabler of residential demand.
Figure 2-3: Colorado PV Installations by Market Segment, Q1 2010 through Q3 2010
4.2.3 Manufacturing Production 724.2.4 Component Pricing 734.2.5 Demand Projections 73
APPENDIX A: METRICS & CONVERSIONS 77PHOTOVOLTAICS 77CONCENTRATING SOLAR POWER 77SOLAR HEATING & COOLING 77
APPENDIX B: METHODOLOGY AND DATA SOURCES 79HISTORICAL INSTALLATIONS (NUMBER, CAPACITY, AND OWNERSHIP STRUCTURE) 79AVERAGE SYSTEM PRICE 80MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION & COMPONENT PRICING 82
Figure 2-1: Annual PV Installed Capacity by Market Segment, 2000-Q3 2010 8Figure 2-4: Installed PV Capacity by State, Quarter, and Market Segment 11Figure 2-5: California Solar Initiative Installations by Market Segment, Q1 2009 through Q3 2010 13Figure 2-6: Non-Utility PV Installations in Leading States, Q1 2010 through Q3 2010 15Figure 2-7: Non-Utility PV Installed Capacity by State, Q1 2010 through Q3 2010 16Figure 2-8: Number of U.S. PV System Installations by State and Market Segment, Q3 2010 17Figure 2-9: Residential PV Installed Capacity by Ownership Type, Q1 2010 through Q3 2010 18Figure 2-10: Third-Party Owned Residential Installations under California Solar Initiative Q1 2009 through Q3 2010 18Figure 2-11: Non-Residential PV Installed Capacity by Ownership Type, Q1 2010 through Q3 2010 19Figure 2-12: National Weighted Average System Prices, Q1 2010 through Q3 2010 20Figure 2-13: Average PV Installed Price by State and Market Segment, Q1 2010 through Q3 2010 21Figure 2-14: Residential PV Market Size vs. Installed Price, Q3 2010 22Figure 2-15: Weighted Average Non-Residential System Prices by State, Q3 2010 23Figure 2-16: National Weighted Average System Prices by System Size, Q1 2010 through Q3 2010 24Figure 2-17: U.S. Polysilicon Capacity and Production, Q2 2010 vs. Q3 2010 26Figure 2-18: U.S. PV Wafer Capacity and Production, Q2 2010 vs. Q3 2010 26Figure 2-19: U.S. PV Cell Capacity and Production, Q2 2010 vs. Q3 2010 27Figure 2-20: U.S. PV Module Capacity and Production, Q2 2010 vs. Q3 2010 28Figure 2-21: U.S. PV Module Capacity and Production by Technology, Q2 2010 vs. Q3 2010 29Figure 2-22: U.S. PV Inverter Manufacturing Production and Capacity, Q1 2010 through Q3 2010 30Figure 2-23: U.S. PV Inverter Manufacturing by State, Q1 2010 through Q3 2010 (MW-dc) 31Figure 2-24: U.S. Polysilicon Price, Q2 2010 vs. Q3 2010 32Figure 2-25: U.S. Wafer, Cell and Module Factory Gate Prices, Q2 2010 vs. Q3 2010 33Figure 2-26: U.S. Factory Gate Inverter Prices, Q1 2010 through Q3 2010 34Figure 2-27: U.S. PV Demand Forecast, 2009-2015 36Figure 2-28: Base Case Demand Forecast by Market Segment, 2009-2015 37Figure 2-29: Annual PV Base Case Demand Projections by State, 2010-2015 39
Figure 3-1: Annual CSP Installed Capacity, 1982 through Q3 2010 40Figure 3-2: CSP Capacity Installed by State, Q1 2010 through Q3 2010 41Figure 3-3: Number of CSP Installations, Q1-Q3 2010 and Cumulative 41Figure 3-4: U.S. CSP Demand Forecast, 2009-2015 44Figure 3-5: CSP Base Case Demand Forecast by State, 2010-2015 44
Figure 4-1: Annual Solar Water Heating Installed Capacity by Market Segment, 2000-Q3 2010 46Figure 4-2: Solar Water Heating Installed Capacity by State and Market Segment, Q1-Q3 2010 47Figure 4-3: Total Solar Water Heating Installations by State, Q1-Q3 2010 49Figure 4-4: Solar Water Heating Number of Installations by Market Segment, Q3 2010 51Figure 4-5: Solar Water Heating Installations Compared to Natural Gas Prices 52Figure 4-6: Solar Water Heating Commercial Installations by Ownership Structure, Q1-Q3 2010 53Figure 4-7: SWH National Weighted Average System Prices, Q1-Q3 2010 54Figure 4-8: Solar Water Heating Installed Prices by State and Market Segment, Q1-Q3 2010 55Figure 4-9: SWH Weighted Average Residential System Price by State, Q3 2010 57Figure 4-10: SWH Weighted Average Non-Residential System Price by State, Q3 2010 58Figure 4-11: SWH Collector Manufacturing, 1H 2010 59Figure 4-12: SWH Component Price Breakdown, Q1-Q3 2010 59Figure 4-13: SWH U.S. Demand Forecast, 2009-2015 60
Figure 4-14: SWH Base Case Demand Forecast by Market Segment, 2009-2015 61Figure 4-15: Annual SWH Demand Forecast by State, 2010-2015 62Figure 4-16: SPH Annual Installed Capacity by Market Segment, 2000-Q3 2010 63Figure 4-17: SPH Installed Capacity by State, Market Segment, and Quarter, Q1 2010 – Q3 2010 65Figure 4-18: SPH Total Installed Capacity by State, Q1 2010 – Q3 2010 67Figure 4-19: Total Number of SPH Installations by State and Market Segment 68Figure 4-20: SPH National Weighted Average System Prices, Q1 2010 – Q3 2010 69Figure 4-21: Average SPH Installed Price by State and Market Segment, Q1-Q3 2010 70Figure 4-22: SPH Weighted Average Residential System Price by State, Q3 2010 71Figure 4-23: SPH Weighted Average Non-Residential System Price by State, Q3 2010 71Figure 4-24: SPH: U.S. Collector Manufacturing, Q1-Q3 2010 (tsf) 72Figure 4-25: SPH: U.S. Factory-Gate Collector Prices, Q2-Q3 2010 (tsf) 73Figure 4-26: SPH U.S. Demand Forecast, 2009-2015 (tsf) 74Figure 4-27: SPH Base Case Demand Forecast by Market Segment, 2009-2015 75Figure 4-28: Annual SPH Demand Forecast by State, 2010-2015 75
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SEIA Policy and Research Division:
Tom Kimbis, Director of Policy & ResearchJustin Baca, Manager, Policy & ResearchSamantha Jacoby, Policy & Research Analyst