Q method conference 2016: Do stakeholders' perspectives pose a risk to energy transition?

Takingstockofstakeholder’sperspec0veson

renewabledecisionprocessesinSwitzerland

AQstudyonfacilita0ngthe

Swissenergytransi0onstrategy

PaulaDíazPhDClimatePolicy–ETHZ

QMethodConference–NewOrleans,Sept.8th2016

o  Perspec0vesondecisionprocesso  Energypolicyforhighlevelsofrenewables

Arestakeholders’perspec0vesposingrisksto

energypolicyimplementa0on?

Governmentshavedeeplyreviewedtheirenergypolicyframeworksandtargetedasystemwithhighpenetra0onofrenewableenergy

§  SwissEnergyStrategyenactedin2012tophaseoutnuclearby2050§  EU’snewenergymarketdesignenactedin2015§  GermanRenewableEnergyActlastrevisedon2014§  theAmericanRecoveryandReinvestmentActof2009§  theIndianNa0onalRenewableEnergyActof2015...

Context

Governmentsfacesitua0onswherenewriskstotheimplementa0onoftheenergypolicymayemerge

“Many respondents complain the lack of acceptance of hydropower in society and miss the political will to their expansion. A broad debate on the role of hydropower for energy supply has not been previously performed. The existing fronts between conservation and use interests have so far prevented an objective discussion. From different sides a transparent, fact-based debate is required instead of lobbying and emotional discussions.” (page: 6/22)

Hydropower potential in Switzerland

Casestudy

DecisionprocessofsmallhydropowerprojectElectricityproduc0onfor2500Households(3.1MW)

HydropowerPoten;al

Casestudy

Projectsite:valley&river

Hydropowermeasurements

Decisionprocess:stakeholdersinvolved

CantonSt.Gallen

10Stakeholdergroups

30peopleinvolved

Municipality

Electricitycompanies

EnvironmentalAssessment

NGOs

Ortsgemeinde

FarmerRangerValleycommuneFishingassocia;on

Qmethod

•  Operantsubjec0vity– Behaviorisbestunderstoodrela0vetoitsimpactupontheimmediateenvironment

•  Par0cipantsviewpointscanreallymakeadifference

•  Theydonotexpressapar0cularpreconceivedmeaning

•  Theyimpresstheirownmeanings

Concourseofopinion

•  Interviewsto12stakeholders•  Media&literature•  Complain&courtdecision

Finalsetofstatements(Q-set)

Project DecisionProcess

EnergyPolicy

Economy

Technology

Environment

Admin.Levels

2 3 3

2 2 4

1 1 4

4 4 4

N=34

Impressionofpreferences:Qsor;ng

Inperson:5(19%)

Condi;onofinstruc;on:“VerteilenSiedieAussagengemässIhrerpersönlichenAuffassungineinerSkalavon–4bis+4auf.BiEebeachtenSie,dass-4überhauptnichtIhrerAuffassungund+4ganzIhrerAuffassungentspricht.”(Distributethestatementsaccordingtoyourpersonalopiniononascalefrom-4to+4.Pleasenotethat-4ismostunlikeyouropinionand+4mostlikeyouropinion).

www.qsortware.netDr.AlessioPruneddu

N=26

Online:21(81%)

Factoranalysis

PQMethodCentroidanalysis:

Factors 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Eigenvalues 7.77 3.49 1.58 1.41 0.37 1.04 0.76Variance(%) 29.90 13.42 6.08 5.43 1.44 4.01 2.92Humphrey’s(p<0.01=0.442) 4 3 3 3 0 1 1

Humphrey’s(SE*2=0.17*2=0.34) 0.65 0.48 0.22 0.22 0.05 0.10 0.10

Factoranalysis

Factors 1 2 3 4 5 6 7


Humphrey’s(SE*2=0.17*2=0.34) 0.65 0.48 0.22 0.22 0.05 0.10 0.10


Factoranalysis

Factors 1 2 3 4 5 6 7


Humphrey’s(SE*2=0.17*2=0.34) 0.65 0.48 0.22 0.22 0.05 0.10 0.10


Factoranalysis

Factors 1 2 3 4 5 6 7


Humphrey’s(SE*2=0.17*2=0.34) 0.65 0.48 0.22 0.22 0.05 0.10 0.10


Factoranalysis

Varimaxfactorrota0on:4Factors

22Qsorts(4confounded)

RotatedFactors 1 2 3 4 Total

Eigenvalues 5.00 3.90 3.82 1.54Variance(%) 19.23 15.01 14.69 5.91 54.8

Bipolar

Consensusstatementsacrossfactors

Allstakeholdersshouldbeinvolvedinthedecisions-making. 1.2 0.76 0.92 0.03

InSwitzerlandtheenvironmentimpactsarenotaproblemaslongastheeconomymoves -1.2 -0.9 -0.9 -0.9

Themanyadmin.bodiesinSwitzerlandmadethedecision-makingprocesscomplex. 0.87 0.39 0.17 0.46

ThephaseoutofnuclearinSwitzerlandis,inmyopinion,wrong. -1.7 -2.1 -1.5 -1.1

1234Loadingsperfactor

Factor1“Supergreenlocalproduc;onempowerment”

Par0cipants Qsort Loadings1 Ortsgemeinde 2 0.642 Electricityna0onalcompany 6 0.533 CantonCouncilorChris0anPeople'sParty 8 0.494 Valleycommunity 9 0.635 EnvironmentalAssessment 12 0.706 Ortsgemeinde 14 0.707 Electricitylocalcompany 16 0.658 Farmer 19 0.709 WaterCantonalAdmin. 22 0.4510 Electricitylocalcompany 24 0.45

Factor1“Supergreenlocalproduc;onempowerment”Decisionprocessandproject

EnergyStrategy

Localresidentshavethebestknowledgeaboutcommunityneeds.ThelackofexperienceofcantonSt.Gallenfacilitatedthedecision-makingprocess.Icouldnotinfluencetheresultsofthedecisionprocess.

Wehavetoproduceasmuchenergyaspossibletomeetourneeds.Weshouldenhancetheenergyefficiency(efficientappliances,roofisola0on).TheSwissenergystrategyshouldfocusonhowtoprotectournature.

0.96

-1.17

-1.26

Loading

1.05

0.78

-0.57

Loading

Par0cipants Qsort Loadings1 NGO 1 0.792 NGO 3 0.443 NGO 5 0.664 NGO 10 0.795 NGO 15 0.766 EnvironmentalAssessment 17 0.69

Factor2“Supergreen:na;onalsavings”

Inprojectsplannedatna0onallevel,localinterestsareenoughtakenintoaccount.

Decisionprocessandproject

EnergyStrategy

Thedecisionprocessbroughtahugedisadvantagefortheproject.Ihavethefeelingthattheecologicconsandthepowerproduc0onarewellbalanced.

Weshouldenhancetheenergyefficiency(efficientappliances,roofisola0on).InSwitzerlandweshouldnotbuildanymoresmallhydropowerplant.Wehavetoproduceasmuchenergyaspossibletomeetourneeds.

0.51

-0.56

-0.7

Loading

2.28

1.68

-1.17

Loading

Factor2“Supergreen:na;onalsavings”

Par0cipants Qsort Loadings1 CantonCouncilorSwissPeople'sParty 7 0.552 WaterCantonalAdmin. 11 0.733 WaterCantonalAdmin. 18 0.724 Fishingassocia0on 25 0.45

Factor3“Thesolu;onisalwaysinthemiddle”

Wehavetoproducemuchmorerenewableenergy. 1.22


EnergyStrategy

ThehydropowerplantBerschnerbachisadecisiveprojectforthecantonSt.Gallen.Decisionsarelogicallyalwaystakenbythosewhopay.Inprojectsplannedatna0onallevel,localinterestsareenoughtakenintoaccount.

TheSwissenergystrategyshouldfocusonhowtoprotectournature.InSwitzerland,wehavetoproduceasmuchenergyaspossibletomeetourneeds.

1.42

-1.17

-1.3

Loading

0.23

-0.99

Loading

Factor3“Thesolu;onisalwaysinthemiddle”

Factor4“Liberalenergyproduc;onforall”

Par0cipants Qsort Loadings1 Farmer 23 0.512 Electricityna0onalcompany 26 0.643 ElectricitynaRonalcompany 13 -0.56

Bipolar


EnergyStrategy

Ifwehadinvestedthemoneysomewhereelse,wecouldhaveproducedmoreenergy.Indecisionprocesspersonalinterestsaregivenpreferenceoverprojectinterests.Intheen0reeconomyofSwitzerland,thisprojectisimportant.

Weshouldnotlimittheconven0onalenergysources(non-renewable).Wehavetoproducemuchmorerenewableenergy.TheSwissenergystrategyshouldfocusonhowtoprotectournature.

1.79

1.12

-2.05

Loading

0.99

-0.53

-1.35

Loading

Factor4“Liberalenergyproduc;onforall”

Findings

•  Qrevealsfourmajorstakeholders’perspec0vesregardingtheSwissEnergyStrategy2050.

•  Althoughhavingsomeconsensusongeneralstatements,eachperspec0vesupportssubstan0allydifferentpolicypriori0es.

•  Eachperspec0vediffer:– Meanstoimplementtheenergystrategy–  Emphasisgiven

•  Economicra0onale•  Energysaving•  Natureprotec0on•  Technologies,etc.

Findings•  Eachperspec0vecorrespondtodifferentlevelsoffederal

administra0on.–  Local–  Cantonal–  Na0onalperspec0ve

•  TheCantonplaysarelevantrolefortheenergystrategyimplementa0on.–  Itenactsrequirementsforinsula0on,ra0onaluseofenergyanduseof

renewablesourcesofenergy,amongothers–  However,ourresultsshowthattheCantondoesnotpriori0zena0onal

interest,suchas,natureprotec0onandenergyefficiency

PolicyImplica0ons

•  Noextremeopposi0ontoenergypolicyimplementa0onhasbeenhighlighted.

•  Renewabledevelopmentmaybedelayedofimplementa0onprocess.

•  Nego0a0onwithstakeholdersinvolvedisnecessarytoarrivetoacompromise.

•  Energypolicyimplementa0onwillbepoten0allylengthyandcostly.

Thankyou

PaulaDí[email protected]

ThisresearchprojectispartoftheNa0onalResearchProgramme"EnergyTurnaround"(NRP70)oftheSwissNa0onalScienceFounda0on(SNSF).Furtherinforma0onontheNa0onalResearchProgrammecanbefoundatwww.nrp70.ch.

BERSCH.UNR72634Berschnerbach-4400234565432000000000F1 F2 F3 F4 F5 F6 F7 h2(communality)*

1 0.376 -0.709 -0.110 0.134 0.185 0.157 0.156 0.762 0.511 0.230 0.310 -0.161 0.078 -0.113 -0.320 0.563 0.614 -0.172 0.142 0.213 0.007 0.323 -0.044 0.584 0.796 0.221 -0.125 0.036 0.036 -0.020 0.168 0.735 0.152 -0.622 0.152 0.113 0.130 0.073 -0.070 0.476 0.526 0.443 0.207 0.100 0.100 -0.047 0.229 0.597 0.296 0.651 -0.181 0.178 0.224 0.199 -0.056 0.678 0.503 -0.052 -0.095 -0.375 0.094 -0.317 0.028 0.529 0.493 0.437 0.114 -0.212 0.131 -0.011 0.149 0.5310 0.356 -0.678 0.070 0.223 0.161 -0.119 -0.158 0.7111 0.821 0.049 -0.432 0.073 0.092 0.011 -0.128 0.8912 0.613 0.037 0.274 -0.284 0.075 0.051 0.265 0.6113 0.456 0.296 -0.510 -0.279 0.240 0.299 0.073 0.7914 0.532 0.072 0.252 -0.402 0.118 -0.055 -0.144 0.5515 0.358 -0.614 0.306 0.192 0.152 -0.069 -0.036 0.6616 0.682 0.351 0.053 -0.095 0.072 0.379 0.112 0.7617 0.501 -0.535 0.264 -0.170 0.137 -0.240 0.183 0.7518 0.673 0.057 -0.286 0.293 0.058 -0.270 -0.287 0.7819 0.712 0.347 0.218 -0.023 0.073 -0.078 0.064 0.6920 0.695 0.262 -0.064 -0.007 0.042 0.138 -0.115 0.5921 0.736 -0.185 -0.077 0.202 0.011 0.107 0.112 0.6522 0.626 -0.140 -0.048 -0.141 0.024 0.249 -0.073 0.5023 0.386 0.010 0.292 0.537 0.092 0.188 -0.225 0.6224 0.619 0.074 0.099 0.089 0.000 -0.242 -0.087 0.4725 0.235 0.207 -0.173 0.293 0.054 -0.283 0.367 0.4326 -0.023 0.133 0.542 0.320 -0.220 0.303 0.152 0.58

Eigenvalue** 7.77 3.49 1.58 1.41 0.37 1.04 0.76Variance(%) 29.90 13.42 6.08 5.43 1.44 4.01 2.92 63.20

VARIMAX42634Berschnerbach-4400234565432000000000F1 F2 F3 F4(bipolar) h2(communality)*

1 -0.051 0.788 0.151 -0.169 0.672 0.635 0.011 0.125 0.129 0.443 0.336 0.445 0.377 0.142 0.47

Confounded 4 0.554 0.098 0.607 -0.122 0.705 -0.065 0.656 -0.087 0.061 0.456 0.534 -0.151 0.400 0.241 0.537 0.230 -0.469 0.548 0.049 0.588 0.487 0.173 0.094 -0.361 0.419 0.626 -0.217 0.231 -0.015 0.4910 -0.026 0.790 0.121 0.032 0.6411 0.376 0.224 0.735 -0.370 0.8712 0.699 0.200 0.072 -0.016 0.5313 0.332 -0.203 0.412 -0.559 0.6314 0.701 0.117 -0.028 -0.089 0.5115 0.108 0.762 0.014 0.206 0.6316 0.650 -0.058 0.416 -0.027 0.6017 0.395 0.687 -0.081 -0.044 0.6418 0.225 0.213 0.719 -0.108 0.6219 0.703 -0.009 0.402 0.140 0.68

Confounded 20 0.541 0.024 0.506 -0.082 0.56Confounded 21 0.333 0.471 0.537 -0.050 0.62

22 0.451 0.341 0.262 -0.213 0.4323 0.129 0.261 0.424 0.508 0.5224 0.454 0.201 0.393 0.077 0.4125 0.006 -0.076 0.453 0.052 0.2126 0.089 -0.005 -0.027 0.637 0.41

Eigenvalue** 5.00 3.90 3.82 1.54

Variance(%) 19.23 15.01 14.69 5.91 54.83

VARIMAX72634Berschnerbach-4400234565432000000000

F1 F2 F3 F4 F5 F6 F7 h2(communality)*1 a 2 a 3 a

Confounded 4 a a 5 a 6 a 7 a 8 a 9 a 10 a

Confounded 11 a a 12 a 13 a 14 a 15 a

Confounded 16 a a Confounded 17 a a

18 a 19 a 20 a

Confounded 21 a a 22 a 23 a 24 a 25 a26 a

Eigenvalue** 7.774 3.4894 1.5815 1.412 0.3741 1.0424 0.759Variance(%) 30 13 6 5 1 4 3 62

Infactor6,4Qsortswereconfoundedwithotherfactors

F1 F2 F3 F4IDWording Load. ArrLoad.Arr Load.Arr Load.Arr1 Technicallywise I am very happy with what the project represents 0.76 1 0.25 1 2.14 4 0.53 12 In the entire economy of Switzerland, the hydropower plant Berschnerbach is important. 0.01 0 -1.9 -4 0.47 2 -2.05 -43 Of course I (or my employer) take profit from the hydropower plant Berschnerbach 0.57 1 -0.65 -2 -2.14 -4 -0.24 04 Comparing the planed electricity price of the hydropowerplant Berschnerbach with the price that we have today in the market, the Energy Policy

seems senseless. -1.07 -2 0.55 2 0.02 0 2.09 45 If we had invested the money somewhere else insted of in the hydropower plant Berschnerbach, we could have increased more the energy efficiency.-0.81 -1 1.55 3 -0.62 -1 1.79 46 The hydropower plant Berschnerbach is a decisive project for St. Gallen. 0.12 0 -1.15 -3 1.42 3 -1.32 -37 The results of the decision process about the hydropower Berschnerbach are something I could not influence. -1.26 -3 -0.61 -2 -0.75 -2 -0.37 -18 The community has gained much significance with the hydropower Berschnerbach. 0.35 0 -0.38 -1 0.13 0 -1.72 -49 Regarding the hydropower Berschnebach, the result is a "win win" situation for everyone. 1.21 3 0.23 0 1.29 3 -0.86 -210Regarding the hydropower Berschnerbach, I have the feeling that the ecologic cons and the power production are well balanced.

0.74 1 -0.7 -2 1.67 4 -0.29 -111 In Switzerland the environment impacts are not a problem as long as the economy moves ahead.

-1.22 -3 -0.94 -2 -0.9 -2 -0.93 -212 In the decision process my main motivation was to be able to use renewable energy.

1.2 3 0.08 0 1.17 2 0.44 113 In Switzerland conflicts limit e sustainable energy development.

0.9 2 -0.44 -1 0.44 1 0.23 114The Swiss energy strategy should focus on how to protect our nature.

-0.57 -1 1.26 3 0.23 1 -1.35 -315 In Switzerland, we should enhance the energy efficiency (efficient appliances, proper roof isolation).

0.78 1 2.28 4 0.84 2 -0.03 016 In Switzerland, we have to produce as much energy as possible to meet our needs.

1.05 2 -1.17 -3 -0.99 -2 0.43 117 In Switzerland, we have to produce much more renewable energy.

1.52 4 1.09 2 1.22 3 -0.53 -118 In Switzerland, we should improve the efficiency of the large hydropower plants.

1.57 4 1.49 3 0.08 0 1.12 319 In Switzerland we should not build any small hydropower plant more.

-1.61 -3 1.68 4 0.15 0 -1.35 -320The phase out of nuclear in Switzerland is, in my opinion, wrong.

-1.72 -4 -2.14 -4 -1.56 -4 1.11 221 In Switzerland, we should not limit the conventional energy sources (non-renewable). -1.68 -4 -1.19 -3 -0.6 -1 0.99 222The electricity for the municipality Walenstadt is secured with the hydropowerplant Berschnerbach.

0.3 0 -0.48 -1 0.44 1 -0.92 -223The lack of experience with hydropower projects in the canton of St. Gallen facilitated the decision-making process. -1.17 -2 -0.09 0 -1.35 -3 -0.29 -124 I wonder whether the green lobby has a strong influence on the government departments.

0.37 0 -0.39 -1 -0.32 -1 1.42 325The whole political apparatus could work faster.

0.4 1 0.46 1 0.15 0 -0.21 026 In decision process personal interests are given preference over project interests.

-0.64 -1 -0.03 0 -1.3 -3 1.12 327Local residents have the best knowledge about community needs.

0.96 2 -0.23 0 -0.22 -1 0.07 028The low agreement is in large part due to the fact that the initiators underestimated the complexity of the decision process.

-0.43 -1 0.26 1 0.4 1 0.67 229 In Switzerland, it is easy to call everyone to hold a roundtable to make decisions. -0.89 -2 0.52 2 0.2 1 -0.36 -130 In projects planned at national level, local interests are enough taken into account.

-0.76 -1 0.51 1 -1.05 -2 -0.1 031Decisions are logically always taken by those who pay.

-0.88 -2 -0.32 0 -1.17 -3 -0.56 -232The decision process brought a huge disadvantage for the hydropower plant Berschnerbach.

-0.17 0 -0.56 -1 -0.57 -1 1.06 233The many instances in Switzerland made the decision-making process rather complex.

0.87 2 0.39 1 0.17 0 0.46 134All stakeholders should be involved in the decisions-making. 1.2 3 0.76 2 0.92 2 -0.03 0