Putinism

Putinism

“I want a guy like Putin” – a Russian pop song, 2004: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z9gqQnAvYn4&feature=related

In 1989-91, Russia experienced a democratic revolution – and democracy began to suffer soon afterwards

The leaders of the new Russian state, which emerged from the ruins of the USSR, wanted capitalism more than democracy

They were deeply unsure of their ability to keep power while they plundered the public assets of the Soviet state

Democracy worked for them to the extent that it enabled them to dismantle the Soviet system

But it became a threat to their interests once they began to rule

Since 1993, they steadily moved to limit and undermine Russian democracy – all the while declaring their commitment to it

By the 2000s, the idea of democracy was discredited

1999 The end of Russia’s Liberal Decade Results

A highly inefficient model of capitalism A badly damaged, fragmented society A disorganized state privatized by the bureaucrats Extreme insecurity:

Of the state Of the elites Of society

Real possibility of a regime collapse And of a state collapse Political opposition to the Yeltsin regime was gaining

momentum, real chance to take power through 1999-2000 elections

The Second Chechen War becomes the turning point Spread of insurgency beyond Chechnya – to Dagestan Putin is appointed Prime Minister Offers wartime leadership Appeals to the Russian battle order

The political turnaround Consolidation of elites behind Putin:

the Kremlin (the Family) key groups of the business elite, bureaucracy, the army the security services

give him support as the figure seemingly capable of “saving Russia” from a catastrophe

Parliamentary election of 1999 – the new “party of power” representing this coalition wins a plurality of seats in the parliament

December 31, 1999 – Yeltsin resigns, appoints Putin Acting President

Presidential election of 2000 – Putin is elected President

Putin’s gains from Global War on Terror Put Chechnya in a global context favorable to Moscow US and Russia fighting the same enemy America got bogged down in Iraq, which reduced its

capacity to advance on Russia’s interests Russia’s opposition to the Iraq war improved Russia’s

standing in the Muslim world Oil prices surged, driving Russian economic recovery

Rebuilding “the vertical of power” Reduce the influence of the oligarchs on media and

politics Reduce the power of regional leaders (governors,

presidents of Russia’s republics) Increase the power and role of siloviki (the Enforcers) in

the Russian state “KGB Inc.”, “Neo-nobility”

Putin’s “Neo-Nobles”: KGB, Inc.

Igor Sechin

Sergei Ivanov

Nikolai Patrushev

Sergei Lebedev

Viktor Cherkesov

Alexander Fradkov

Alexander Bastrykin

Rashid Nurgaliyev

Sergei Shoigu

Vladimir Ustinov

Putin’s Neoliberals

Anatoly Chubais

Anatoly Medvedev

Alexei Kudrin

Mikhail Kasyanov

Andrei Illarionov

The Kremlin vs. the oligarchs No populist drive to sack the oligarchs – and they have

continued to prosper But their influence on the state has been significantly

reduced Stick and carrot

The Kremlin now controls “commanding heights”: big business is allowed to function at the discretion of the top political authority – no challenges to the Kremlin are allowed

Redistribution of property

Putin’s Oligarchs

Roman Abramovich

Sergej Pugachev

Mikhail Fridman

Oleg Deripaska

Gennady Timchenko

Market authoritarianism Economic policy: continued neoliberal reforms, with some

modifications Politics: restoration of state capacity through centralization

of political authority and increase of state control over society

Under Putin, the Kremlin regained part of the power it had lost since Gorbachev’s reforms

Vladislav Surkov, Presidential adviser

The President vs. regional governments In 2000 - creation of 7 presidential districts to incorporate

the 89 regions of Russia Since 2004 – top regional executives (governors, republic

presidents, etc.) are no longer elected by voters. They are appointed by the President and confirmed by regional legislatures

Ramzan Kadyrov, President of Chechnya

Chechnya now boasts one of the biggest mosques in Europe

331 died, mostly children

One of the suicide bombers who blew up Moscow subway stations in March 2010, killing 37 people – with her boyfriend

The President vs. the parliament Legacy of Yeltsin: an overwhelming Presidency Under Putin, the growth of the “party of power” (United

Russia) put the parliament under firm control of the Kremlin The upper chamber (Federation Council) is no longer

composed of elected representatives

Boris Gryzlov, Speaker of the State Duma (lower house of Parliament)

Sergei Mironov, Speaker of “the Senate”

Elections Eliminating the mixed proportional-majoritarian system in

favour of proportional representation only Raising the threshold of party representation (6% of the

total) Use of “the administrative resources” Control of the media

Vladimir Churov, Chairman of the Federal Electoral Commission

Control of the media Under Yeltsin, the media was largely independent of the

government (while falling under oligarch control) Putin moved to re-establish varying degrees of government

control over key media organizations – both public and private (mostly through Kremlin-friendly corporations)

Not a return to Soviet-era censorship, but a significant setback for the cause of democracy

The economic recovery

Robust economic growth since 2000

Achieved through:

Liberal incentives to the private sector

Political stabilization

High oil and gas prices

Steady improvement of the public finance

Rise of wages, pensions, incomes

1998: US National Intelligence Council forecast for the year 2010:

“During the Cold War Russia’s capabilities were measured in terms of military power. Looking out to 2010, these capabilities will be measured more in terms of economic resources. We believe Russia will remain economically weak through 2010 and beyond.”

http://www.dni.gov/nic/special_globaltrends2010.html#russia

National Intelligence Council forecast for the year 2025, unveiled in October 2008, describes Russia in very different terms — as one of four rising centers of international power: “In terms of size, speed, and directional flow, the transfer of global wealth and economic power now under way — roughly from West to East — is without precedent in modern history . . . . No other countries are projected to rise to the level of China, India, or Russia, and none is likely to match their individual global clout. . . . Growth projections for Brazil, Russia, India, and China (the BRICs) indicate they will collectively match the original G-7’s share of global GDP by 2040-2050.”

“Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World”. Washington: National Intelligence Council, November 2008 - http://www.dni.gov/nic/NIC_2025_project.html , pp. vi, vii

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fQGa6YAXVSU

The boom fuelled the politics of conservatism

“Stability” as the key value

Financial resources available to the Kremlin

Putin’s elite

Bureaucracy

The people

Distrust the govt, trust Putin

Yearn for improvement of material conditions

Resent the injustice

The growing middle class

The Putin Cult

“As we say in Texas, he’s a stand-up kind of guy” – George Bush of Vladimir Putin

Vladimir Caesar?

“Putin’s Ice Cream”, a commercial brand

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-bW80i0e1w

Opinion polls, 2006-07

Are things in the country moving in the right direction?

36% - Yes

49% - No

Are you confident about the future?

52% - No

20% - Not much

25% - Yes

Your family’s economic situation?

7% - good/very good

40% - average

31% - bad

Political situation in the country?

4% - favourable

26% - calm

46% - tense

7% - critical, explosive

Life in general

Not so bad, life is normal – 21%

It’s hard, but one can live – 46%

It’s so bad that it is no longer bearable – 29%

“To live normally” – 12,000 Rb a person a month ($400)

“Minimum to survive” – 5,800 Rb ($150)

“Poor” – 320 Rb ($11)

Real median income – 3,300 Rb ($110) a month .

How likely are mass demonstrations in your area against deterioration of economic conditions, in defence of people’s rights?37% - quite possible48% - unlikely

Will you take part?26% - most likely yes62% - most likely no

Are demonstrations with political demands possible in your area?24% - yes58% - no