PUTIN IN PERSPECTIVE PROFESSOR RICHARD ROSE FBA University of Strathclyde SCOTTISH RUSSIA FORUM Edinburgh 22.

PUTIN IN PERSPECTIVE

PROFESSOR RICHARD ROSE FBA

University of Strathclyde

www.cspp.strath.ac.uk

www.RussiaVotes.org

SCOTTISH RUSSIA FORUM

Edinburgh 22 March 2012

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FINAL RESULT OF THE DUMA ELECTION, 4 DECEMBER 2011 2011 2007 Electorate 109,237,780 % 109,145,517 % Valid Votes 64,623,062 59.2 68,777,136 63.0 Invalid Votes 1,033,464 0.9 759,929 0.7 Total Votes 65,656,526 60.1 69,537,065 63.7

LIST VOTE 1 SEATS 2011 2007 2011 2007

Parties (leaders) on ballot N % % N % N % United Russia (Medvedev) 32,379,135 49.3 64.3 238 52.9 315 70.0 Communists (Zyuganov-Komoedov-Afonin) 12,599,507 19.2 11.6 92 20.4 57 12.7 Fair Russia (Mironov-Goryacheva) 8,695,522 13.2 7.7 64 14.2 38 8.4 Liberal Democrats (Zhirinovsky-Ostrovsky- Lebedev) 7,664,570 11.7 8.1 56 12.4 40 8.9 Yabloko (Yavlinsky-Mitrokhin-Yablokov) 2,252,403 3.4 1.6 0 0 0 0 Patriots of Russia (Semigin-Makhovikov- Korneeva) 639,119 1.0 0.9 0 0 0 0 Right Cause (Dunaev-Bogdanov- Chakvetadze)2 392,806 0.6 n.a. 0 0 n.a. n.a. Agrarians (Plotnikov-Brusnikov-Shandybin) n.a. n.a. 2.3 n.a. n.a. 0 0 Civic Strength (Barshchevsky-Ryavkin- Pokhmelkin) n.a. n.a. 1.1 n.a. n.a. 0 0 Party of Social Fairness (Podberezkin- Leskov-Vorotnikov)3 n.a. n.a. 0.2 n.a. n.a. 0 0 Democratic Party of Russia (Bogdanov- Smirnov-Gimazov) n.a. n.a. 0.1 n.a. n.a. 0 0 Notes: n.a.: The party did not stand in the 2011 election.

1 In 2011 and 2007 all 450 seats were assigned by the largest remainder method to lists of parties winning a minimum of 7.0 percent of the national vote. 2 Created in 2008 on the basis of three liberal parties Civic Strength, Democratic Party of Russia and Union of Right Forces.3 Part of a bloc with Party of Pensioners.Source: Central Electoral Commission, http://www.vybory.izbirkom.ru, accessed 22.02.12

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PRELIMINARY RESULT OF PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 4TH MARCH 2012

  Votes % Electorate

Electorate 109,860,331

Invalid votes 836,691 0.8

Valid votes 70,864,974 64.5

Total votes 71,701,665 65.3

    % Total Vote

Vladimir Putin, United Russia 45,602,075 63.60

Gennady Zyuganov, KPRF 12,318,353 17.18

Mikhail Prokhorov, Ind. 5,722,508 7.98

Vladimir Zhirinovsky, LDPR 4,458,103 6.22

Sergei Mironov, Fair Russia   2,763,935  3.85 

Source: Central Electoral Commission, 2012. "Dannie o predvarytelnyh itogah golosovania."http://www.vybory.izbirkom.ru, accessed 13 March.

4

5

14

57

64 65

53

69

77

84

7470

74

49 4854

46 47 48 48

25 25

1610

1922

26 283739

47

36 3538 36

3237

45

31

23

0

20

40

60

80

100

92 93 94 95 96a 96b 98 00a 00b 01 03a 03b 04 05 07a 07b 08 09 11

EVALUATION OF CURRENT REGIME

3b. Here is a scale ranking how well our system of government works. The top, plus 100, is the best and the bottom, minus 100, is the worst. Where on this scale would you put our current system of government?

Positive

Negative

Percent responding%

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WHAT MATTERS FOR REGIME SUPPORT: FOUR HYPOTHESES

Differences in regime support depend on

♦1. Socialization: What individuals have learned from their roles in society.

♦2. Politics: How individuals evaluate the performance of political institutions.

♦3. Economics: How individuals evaluate household and national economic conditions.

♦4. Time: When individuals make evaluations and how long the new regime has been in place.

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EVALUATION OF CURRENT ECONOMIC SYSTEM

1b. Here is a scale ranking how well an economy works. The top, plus 100, is the best and the bottom, minus 100, is the worst. Where on this scale would you put our current economic system?

Percent respondingPositive

Negative

%

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WHAT'S CHANGED?

♦ Not the economy: GDP growth in 2011: 4.2%

♦ Not corruption. Russia still low by Transparency International standards

♦ New middle class?

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HOW TYPICAL ARE THE DEMONSTRATORS?

Demonstrators Moscovites Russians% % %

Age under 35 50% 34%

University education 83% 46% 39%

Income good 72% 52% 23%

Duma vote Yabloko 37% 7% 3%

United R <1% 18% 49%

Source: Levada Centre surveys, December, 2011

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HOW MUCH SYMPATHY FOR THE DEMONSTRATORS

18-29 30-59 60+ Total % % % %

60. Generally speaking, do you support street protests against violations in the conduct of the election and fraud in results? Definitely support 12 15 14 14 Mostly support 28 30 27 29 Mostly oppose 28 25 30 27 Entirely oppose 15 14 15 15 [Don’t read] Hard to say 15 14 15 15

66a. If new mass protests were held in your city or district against violations and fraud, would you be prepared to participate? Definitely yes 7 4 1 4 Probably yes 10 11 18 12 Probably no 27 31 22 28 Definitely no 46 45 47 46 [Don’t read] Hard to say 9 9 12 10

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HOW MUCH SYMPATHY FOR VLADIMIR PUTIN?

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HOW PRACTICAL ARE THE DEMANDS OF DEMONSTRATORS?

Annul elections ?

Get rid of corruption ?