Puget Sound Tsunamis - A New Partnership to Model and Map the Hazard Who Would be Impacted? • Shore-side Homes, Schools and Businesses • Port, Harbors, and Marinas • Transportation/Utility Lifelines and Facilities • Coastal Ecosystems • Toxic Waste Sites Puget Sound Tsunami Model Developers: Shun-ichi Koshimura* and Harold Mofjeld Center for Tsunami Inundation Modeling Efforts (Frank González and Vasily Titov, Co-Directors) NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory * also, Japan/JSPS Seattle Fault Source Model Extensions and Refinements Fine-Resolution Sub-Models for Communities Additional Tsunami Sources (Planned) Landslide Sources of Tsunamis Bluff Submarine Other Earthquake Faults Seattle Fault during a reverse thrust earthquake. Uplift occurs south of the fault and subsidence north of the fault Initial pattern of vertical displacement resulting from a Magnitude Mw 7.6 earthquake on the Seattle Fault. The assumed tidal stage is mean sea level. Sea bottom deformation Tsunami Fault Tsunami generation N A T I O N A L O C E A NI C AN D A TM O S P H ER IC A D M IN I S T R A T I O N U . S. D EP A R T M ENT O F C OMM E RC E noaa Wave pattern 2.5 minutes after the earthquake Elevated water levels: Red Lowered water levels: Blue Wave pattern 5 minutes after the earthquake Wave pattern 7.5 minutes after the earthquake Tsunami currents in the Duwamish Waterway (4 m/s = 8 knots) Maximum Wave Levels (meters) relative to mean sea level Maximum Inundation Depths (meters) relative to the local land elevation Organizing Agencies Washington State EMD and DNR NOAA/PMEL USGS FEMA Goals and Approach Identify Vulnerable Areas Using Computer Models Estimate Maximum Credible Event Scenarios Develop GIS, HAZUS and Other Products South North Uplift Subsidence South-dipping reverse fault The Next Step... Puget Sound Tsunami/Landslide Workshop January 23 - 24, 2001 NOAA/Sand Point, Bldg. 9 Seattle, WA Purposes: Create additional partnerships to address tsunami and landslide hazards in the Puget Sound Region Develop an action plan to generate tsunami inundation maps and other mitigation products for Puget Sound communities Water levels at Selected Locations (4 m = 13 ft.) Time (minutes) 4 Water level (m) Seattle Tacoma Bremerton Cultus Bay 2 0 -2 80 60 40 20 0 4 2 0 -2 80 60 40 20 0 4 2 0 -2 80 60 40 20 0 -4 -2 0 2 4 80 60 40 20 0 Time (in.) West Waterway North South -2 0 2 4 80 East Waterway -4 60 40 20 0 North South Velocity (m/s) Organizing Committee: George Crawford (Washington EMD) [email protected] 253 512-7067 Harold Mofjeld (NOAA/PMEL) [email protected] 206 526-6819 Craig Weaver (USGS/Project Impact) [email protected] 206 553-0627 4 2 0 -2 80 60 40 20 0 4 2 0 -2 80 60 40 20 0 Edmonds