Public Policy and Practice: Decision Making (Part Three)

Copyright 2005 - 2009: Hi Tech Criminal Justice, Raymond E.

Foster

Public Policy and Practice and Practice in in Criminal Justice

Decision MakingDecision Making

Part IIIPart III


Foster

Management Decision Making Management Decision Making ToolsTools

Pareto AnalysisPareto Analysis Paired Comparison Paired Comparison

AnalysisAnalysis Grid AnalysisGrid Analysis Decision Tree Decision Tree

AnalysisAnalysis Plus/Minus/Plus/Minus/

Implications (PMI)Implications (PMI) Force Field AnalysisForce Field Analysis CombinationsCombinations


Foster

Pareto AnalysisPareto Analysis

Looking for changes that will give the Looking for changes that will give the most benefit (80/20 Concept)most benefit (80/20 Concept) List potential actionsList potential actions Score actions based on the problem to Score actions based on the problem to

be solved be solved Scoring depends on desired outcomeScoring depends on desired outcome

Choose action based on scoreChoose action based on score


Foster

Paired Comparison AnalysisPaired Comparison Analysis

Used to determine relative Used to determine relative importance of an actionimportance of an action List actions in table, along header and List actions in table, along header and

columncolumn Block out duplicatesBlock out duplicates Score one against the otherScore one against the other Add scores and rank actionsAdd scores and rank actions


Foster

ActionActionArrest Arrest

(A)(A)

CitationCitationss

(B)(B)

WarningWarning

(c)(c)

EducatiEducationon

(D)(D)

ArrestsArrests

(A)(A)BlockedBlocked AA AA AA

CitationCitationss

(B)(B)AA BlockedBlocked BB BB

WarningWarning

(C)(C)AA BB BlockedBlocked CC

EducatiEducationon

(D)(D)AA BB CC BlockedBlocked

Drunk Driving Problem


Foster

Grid AnalysisGrid Analysis

An technique that also the decision An technique that also the decision maker to examine a number of maker to examine a number of alternative and many factors for each alternative and many factors for each alternativealternative Create a spread sheet, listing alternatives Create a spread sheet, listing alternatives

in the header and factors in the columnin the header and factors in the column Uses scoring and weights to help examine Uses scoring and weights to help examine

the factors and the alternativesthe factors and the alternatives First Score and then weightFirst Score and then weight


Foster

ControlControl PricePrice Maintenance Maintenance costscosts FeaturesFeatures TotalTotal

WeightWeight

PurchasePurchase 44 44 44 11

LeaseLease 33 33 11 22

ContractContract 22 22 33 33

ShareShare 11 11 22 44

New Radio System


Foster

ControlControl PricePrice Maintenance Maintenance costscosts FeaturesFeatures TotalTotal

WeightWeight 22 55 44 33

PurchasePurchase 4,84,8 4,204,20 4,164,16 1,31,3 4747

LeaseLease 3,63,6 3,153,15 1,41,4 2,62,6 3131

ContractContract 2,42,4 2,102,10 3,123,12 3,93,9 3535

ShareShare 1,11,1 1,51,5 2,82,8 4,124,12 2626

New Radio System


Foster

Decision Tree AnalysisDecision Tree Analysis

Choose based on the value of likely Choose based on the value of likely outcomesoutcomes Start with decisionStart with decision Draw lines to represent the different Draw lines to represent the different

alternativesalternatives At points different decision are made At points different decision are made

draw a circle and “branch” the treedraw a circle and “branch” the tree Once tree is drawn, assign values to Once tree is drawn, assign values to

outcomesoutcomes


Foster

Radio SystemRadio System

Replace Existing System

Which Agency

Share Syste

m

CountyCity One

CityTwo


Foster

Decision Tree AnalysisDecision Tree Analysis

Creates a clear, visual representationCreates a clear, visual representation Allows for input on potential Allows for input on potential

consequences of actionconsequences of action Produces a framework for analysis on Produces a framework for analysis on

costs, values and likelihood of costs, values and likelihood of occurrenceoccurrence

Decisions are based on current, best Decisions are based on current, best information, and approximations information, and approximations about the futureabout the future


Foster

Plus/Minus/ImplicationsPlus/Minus/Implications

Previous tools looked at alternatives, Previous tools looked at alternatives, this tool looks at the possible this tool looks at the possible consequences of the decisionconsequences of the decision Again, in a spreadsheet list in one column Again, in a spreadsheet list in one column

the positive consequences and the other the positive consequences and the other the negative consequences, the third the negative consequences, the third column is used to record the implication column is used to record the implication of the factorof the factor

Most of the time, the consequences of Most of the time, the consequences of the decision become very clear, but if not the decision become very clear, but if not the factors can be (subjectively) weightedthe factors can be (subjectively) weighted


Foster

Choosing to PurchaseChoosing to Purchase

PlusPlus MinusMinus ImplicationImplication

Control over design Control over design FeaturesFeatures

Requires expertise that Requires expertise that may not be inside may not be inside organization, requiring a organization, requiring a consultantconsultant

High intra-operabilityHigh intra-operability Low interoperabilityLow interoperability

Communication good Communication good inside, cooperation inside, cooperation outside may be outside may be impactedimpacted

Requires huge sunk Requires huge sunk costscosts

Equipment may be Equipment may be technologically out of technologically out of date at time of final date at time of final installationinstallation


Foster

Force Field AnalysisForce Field Analysis

Designed to aide in the analysis of the Designed to aide in the analysis of the strength of the forces for and against a strength of the forces for and against a policy, or a decisionpolicy, or a decision Good visual representation through the use of Good visual representation through the use of

a modela model Positive forces and negative forces are listed Positive forces and negative forces are listed

and weightedand weighted Decision maker can determine if the policy is Decision maker can determine if the policy is

doable; or, determine where pressure should doable; or, determine where pressure should be increased or decreased to allow policy be increased or decreased to allow policy implementationimplementation


Foster

Current System failingCity Budget

Fire Department needs system also

Public concern over terrorism

Officer concernOver safety

Some GrantMoney available

Previous Tech failures

Other DepartmentNeeds

Changing Technology

NewRadio

System


Foster

Combining ToolsCombining Tools

Some of the decision Some of the decision making tools can be making tools can be combined with other combined with other concepts, for concepts, for instance, a instance, a Stakeholder Analysis Stakeholder Analysis can be accomplished can be accomplished through a 2X2 Matrixthrough a 2X2 Matrix


Foster

Stakeholder AnalysisStakeholder Analysisand and

2X2 Matrix2X2 Matrix

Keep SatisfiedKeep Satisfied Manage Manage CloselyClosely

MonitorMonitor Keep InformedKeep Informed

POWERHigh Low

High

Low

II

NN

TT

RR

EE

SS

TT


Foster

Research TechniquesResearch Techniques

Questionnaires, Questionnaires, Surveys and Surveys and ChecklistsChecklists

InterviewsInterviews Document Review Document Review ObservationObservation Focus GroupsFocus Groups Case studiesCase studies


Foster

Questionnaires, Surveys and Questionnaires, Surveys and ChecklistsChecklists

Information and Information and data can be obtain data can be obtain relatively quickly relatively quickly and a in a non-and a in a non-threatening threatening mannermanner

Easily organized Easily organized and analyzedand analyzed


Foster

Questionnaires, Surveys and Questionnaires, Surveys and ChecklistsChecklists

AdvantagesAdvantages AnonymousAnonymous Somewhat Somewhat

inexpensiveinexpensive ease of analysisease of analysis Large GroupsLarge Groups DataData Many types pre-Many types pre-

exist exist

Potential Potential DisadvantagesDisadvantages Survey can bias Survey can bias

responseresponse ImpersonalImpersonal Sampling IssuesSampling Issues Incomplete Incomplete

information information


Foster

InterviewsInterviews

Used to gain a Used to gain a greater depth of greater depth of understanding of understanding of the experiences, the experiences, knowledge and knowledge and activities of activities of individuals.individuals.


Foster

InterviewsInterviews

AdvantagesAdvantages Allows for a fuller Allows for a fuller

appreciation of appreciation of points of view, points of view,

Can lead to Can lead to information you information you didn’t know existed.didn’t know existed.

Can lead to the Can lead to the development of development of new ideas.new ideas.

DisadvantagesDisadvantages Time ConsumingTime Consuming Difficult to analyze Difficult to analyze

and determine and determine themes and trendsthemes and trends

CostlyCostly Interviewer bias Interviewer bias


Foster

Document Review Document Review

Policy and programs Policy and programs can be analyzed can be analyzed without interrupting without interrupting themthem

Sometimes referred Sometimes referred to as an audit.to as an audit. ApplicationsApplications Financial InformationFinancial Information Productivity dataProductivity data Etc. Etc.


Foster

Document Review Document Review

AdvantagesAdvantages Comprehensive Comprehensive

information often information often availableavailable

Can be one of the Can be one of the least disruptiveleast disruptive

Data existsData exists Biases are Biases are

somewhat reduced somewhat reduced

DisadvantagesDisadvantages Time ConsumingTime Consuming Information may be Information may be

incompleteincomplete Need to make Need to make

specific requests – specific requests – have the area to be have the area to be examined clearly examined clearly identified.identified.

Must use existing Must use existing datadata

Unrestricted access Unrestricted access requiredrequired


Foster

ObservationsObservations

Used to obtain data Used to obtain data and information on and information on how a policy or how a policy or program actually program actually operatesoperates

Can be used to Can be used to examine processes examine processes and outcomesand outcomes


Foster

ObservationsObservations

AdvantagesAdvantages Real-time informationReal-time information Adaptable and flexible Adaptable and flexible

method method Can pursue avenues as Can pursue avenues as

they become apparentthey become apparent

DisadvantagesDisadvantages Outside experts may Outside experts may

lack expertise of lack expertise of institutional knowledge institutional knowledge necessary to correctly necessary to correctly interpret internal interpret internal behaviors behaviors

Difficulties inherent in Difficulties inherent in the classification of the classification of behaviorsbehaviors

Observation affects the Observation affects the observedobserved

ExpenseExpense


Foster

Focus GroupsFocus Groups

A topic can be A topic can be examined in-depth examined in-depth by the group by the group

Useful for obtaining Useful for obtaining stakeholder stakeholder impressions, impressions, reactions, reactions, feedback, etc.feedback, etc.


Foster

Focus GroupsFocus Groups

AdvantagesAdvantages quick and reliable quick and reliable

method to obtain method to obtain group impressionsgroup impressions

A more efficient A more efficient way of gathering way of gathering information similar information similar to interviews.to interviews.

Can be used as a Can be used as a two-way form of two-way form of communicationcommunication

DisadvantagesDisadvantages Difficult to analyze Difficult to analyze

responsesresponses The skill of the The skill of the

focus group leader focus group leader or facilitator is or facilitator is critical.critical.

ExpenseExpense Scheduling Scheduling

concerns – getting concerns – getting the group togetherthe group together


Foster

Case studiesCase studies

A complete A complete understanding of a understanding of a policy may be policy may be obtained by a obtained by a comprehensive comprehensive examination of the examination of the policy and policy and comparison to comparison to similar policiessimilar policies


Foster

Case studiesCase studies

AdvantagesAdvantages Full examination of Full examination of

inputs, processes inputs, processes and outputsand outputs

Very good way to Very good way to represent the policy represent the policy to external to external stakeholdersstakeholders

DisadvantagesDisadvantages Time consuming Time consuming

and expensiveand expensive Usually portrays in Usually portrays in

depth of depth of information or information or policy rather than policy rather than breadthbreadth


Foster

Public Policy and Practice and Practice in in Criminal Justice

Search for Search for Military Books

atat

www.military-writers.comwww.military-writers.com

Public Policy and Practice: Decision Making (Part Three)

Education

tech criminal justice

decisionthe decision

decision draw lines

analysis onproduces

foster public policy

decision makeran technique

values toonce tree

actionan action list