Public Opinion The distribution of the population’s beliefs about politics and policy issues. Complex b/c of diverse opinions. People often aren’t well.

PUBLIC OPINION

Public Opinion The distribution of the

population’s beliefs about politics and policy issues.

Complex b/c of diverse opinions.

People often aren’t well informed.

DemographyThe science of population

changes.

CensusA valuable tool for

understanding population changes.

Required every 10 years by the Constitution.

Changes in pop. impact our culture and political systems.

The American People The Immigrant Society

United States is a nation of immigrants.

“not merely a nation, but a nation of nations”- JFK

Federal law allows 800,000 new immigrants per year.

Three waves of immigration:

1. Northwestern Europeans (prior to late 19th Century)

2. Southern and eastern Europeans (late 19th and early 20th centuries)

3. Hispanics and Asians (late 20th century)

The American People The American Melting Pot

Melting Pot: the mixing of cultures, ideas, and peoples that has changed the American nation.

Minority Majority: the emergence of a non-Caucasian majority.○ When? ○ 2000 Census showed all time

low in percentage of non-Hispanic White Americans - 69%

The American People African Americans face a legacy of

racism. 2006 Census Bureau reported 24%

of African Americans living below poverty line compared to 10% of Whites.

Hispanics - largest minority group faced with the problem of illegal immigration.Simpson-Mazzoli Act: requires

employers document citizenship of employee.

Asian immigration - driven by a new class of professional workers looking for opportunity.

Native Americans: disadvantaged

The American People (cont)• The Regional Shift

– Population shift from east to west

– Reapportionment: the process of reallocating seats in the House of Representatives every 10 years on the basis of the results of the census

The American People The Graying of America

Fastest growing age group is over 65.

Potential drain on Social Security:○Pay as you go system.○ In 1942, 42 workers

per retiree.○ In 2040, 2 workers per

retiree.

Political Socialization

Process through which a young person acquires political attitudes and values.

Political Socialization

The Family○Political leanings

of children often mirror parents.

School as socializing agent○Used by gov’t to socialize young into

political culture. ○Better-educated citizens are more likely to

vote and are more knowledgeable about politics and policy.

○Most obvious intrusion of gov’t into our socialization.

How do schools act as social agent?

Elementary SchoolAuthority figuresPledge, National Anthem,

National HolidaysRespect others opinionsClass elections

High SchoolHistory and Government

classes

Mass MediaChief source of

information as children age.

Generation gap is viewing television news.

Most political info comes from here.

Peers - The closer the group, the greater the impact on a person.

 Primary group:  A group that a person comes into face-to-face contact with in everyday life; for example, friends and office associates.

Secondary group:  labor unions, professional, or religious groups, a person CHOOSES TO JOIN.

Political Socialization Political Learning Over a Lifetime

Aging increases political participation and strength of party attachment.

Polling - History

Developed by George Gallup in 1932.

Mother in law was running for Iowa’s secretary of state.

Measuring Public Opinion How Polls Are Conducted

Sample: a small group of people who are chosen in a survey to be representative of the whole.

Usually sample is about 1000- 1500 to represent the “universe”.

Random Sampling: operates on the principle that everyone should have an equal chance of being selected.

Sampling Error: the level of confidence in the findings of a public opinion poll. (ex- +/- 3%)

Today’s polls are usually done by random digit dialing.

Disadvantages: Easier to hang up on

someone7% of population

doesn’t have phoneCell phones?

PollingPolls help politicians

detect public preferences.

But critics say polls make politicians think more about following than leading public.

Question wording may affect survey results. ○ Subtle changes in

wording can produce dramatic differences.

Polls may distort election process.

Bandwagon effect? Exit Polls: used by

the media to predict election day winners.○May discourage

people from voting.○2000 presidential

election in Florida

What Polls Reveal About Americans’ Political Information:Americans don’t know much about politics.Americans may know their basic beliefs but not

how that affects policies of the government.

The Decline of Trust in Government: Since 1964, trust in government has declined.Trust in government has gone up somewhat

since September 11.

2006 General Social Survey found that of people who labeled themselves:37% conservative38% moderate25% liberal

Tends to be predominance of conservative thinking in America.

Left v. Right Younger people more

likely to be liberal. Younger people are also

less likely to vote.

African Americans are more liberal than national average.

Hispanics are typically less conservative than whites.

Gender Women are more likely to

support spending on social services and oppose higher levels of military spending.

Women tend to be less conservative than men.

Gender gap - pattern by which women are more likely to support Democratic candidates.

Income Traditionally social

class was used to predict political behavior.

Relationship b/w income and ideology is now weak.

Religion Protestants are typically more conservative

than Catholics who are typically more conservative than Jewish people.

(Note - Ideological gap between Catholic and Protestants is now smaller than the gender gap)

Ideology tends to be determined more by religiosity - degree to which religion is important in one’s life- rather than denomination.

Religion Christian right -

fundamentalists or “born again” Christians.

Currently the most conservative demographic group

People with no religious affiliation (1 in 10) are more liberal.

The American Voter - 1956 Ideologues - Can connect their opinions

and beliefs with policy positions taken by parties. (12%)

Group benefits voters - think of politics in terms of groups they like or dislike. (42%)

Nature of the times voters - handle on politics limited to whether times seem good or bad. (24%)

No issue content group - Vote based on personality or just for a party. (22%)

What’s it mean? Most people do not

think in ideological terms….

Can’t really claim that an election resulted in the public moving to the left or right.

Political Participation All the activities in

which citizens engage to influence the selection of political leaders or policies they pursue.

Can be overt or subtle, peaceful or violent, organized or individual, etc.

60% adults voted in pres election 2004.

40% in midterm elections 2006.

Local elections - can sometimes draw less than 10% of voters.

Conventional Participation

Voting

Petitioning

Running for office

Contacting government officials

What are the characteristics that show you are likely to

vote? Older Member of the majority Educated Religious High Paying Job

Minorities however have a group consciousness that gives them an incentive to vote. When comparing African Americans and Whites of equal income and education, the former tends to participate more in politics.

2008 Election turnout Remained about the

same. Increase in 18-24 year

olds, African Americans, Hispanic Americans.

18-24 year olds had lowest voting rate.

45 - 64 and 64 - up had highest voting rates (69%/70%).