1 International Republican Institute Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization Rating Group Ukraine with funding from the United States Agency for International Development Public Opinion Survey Residents of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea May 16 – 30, 2013
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Public Opinion Survey Residents of the Autonomous Republic ...CRIMEA RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013 *The Kurultai is a 250-person elected body that is responsible for serving as the elected
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1
International Republican Institute
Baltic Surveys Ltd./The Gallup Organization
Rating Group Ukraine
with funding from the
United States Agency for International Development
Public Opinion Survey Residents of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea
Methodology The survey was conducted by the Baltic Surveys/Gallup on behalf of the International Republican Institute. The fieldwork was carried out by Rating Group Ukraine. The fieldwork was done during May 16–30, 2013, through face-to-face in-home interviews with the respondents. The survey was conducted in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, including the capital and all major regional centers and the city of Sevastopol. The sample consisted of 1,200 permanent Crimea residents older than the age of 18 and eligible to vote and is representative of the general population by age, gender, education and religion. The sample design was a multi-stage random sample: -Stage one: Crimea is divided into official administrative regions. All regions of Crimea were surveyed. -Stage two: Settlements were selected - towns and villages. Towns were divided into subtypes according to the size of population (large, medium, small). There were no more than 10-12 interviews in each village. This stage, among others, had the following tasks: to represent the structure of urban settlements (based on the types of towns) and to represent each of the regions. Towns were selected randomly. The settlement selection stage was implemented on the basis of the town's population. Villages were selected randomly. - Stage three: primary sampling units were described. The households were selected using the random route method. The closest birthday rule was used for selection of the respondent. The response rate was 61 percent. The margin of error does not exceed plus or minus 2.8 percent. Some charts may not round to 100 percent due to rounding.
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine CRIMEA RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
3
MOOD OF THE AUTONOMOUS REPUBLIC
OF CRIMEA
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine CRIMEA RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
4
Generally speaking, do you think that things in Ukraine are going in the right direction or wrong direction?
11
80
62
62
14
26
14
6
24
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Nov 2009
Oct 2011
May 2013
Right direction Wrong direction DK/NA
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine CRIMEA RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
5
Generally speaking, do you think that things in Crimea are going in the right direction or wrong direction?
61 1722
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
May 2013
Right direction Wrong direction DK/NA
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine CRIMEA RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
6
Over the last 12 months, how has the financial situation of your household changed?
1
1
4
3
15
23
39
52
30
39
21
41
15
9
1
3
2
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Nov 2009
Oct 2011
May 2013
Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the same Worsened somewhat Worsened a lot DK/NA
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine CRIMEA RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
7
In the next 12 months, how do you expect the economic situation in Crimea to change?
1
1
8
5
16
29
31
46
24
30
15
27
11
5
11
23
18
0
0 20 40 60 80 100
Nov 2009
Oct 2011
May 2013
Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the same Worsened somewhat Worsened a lot DK/NAIRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine CRIMEA RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
% % % % % %
8
Regardless of your passport, what do you consider yourself?
28
24
14
15
45
40 115
8
5
2 3
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Oct 2011
May 2013
Crimean Ukrainian Russian Crimean-Tatar Other DK/NA
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine CRIMEA RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
% % % % % % % % % % %
9
24
19
29
42
15
66
3
8
40
10
63
19
15
100
5
5
4
29
1
1
2
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
ALLRESPONDENTS
ETHNICITY
Ukrainian
Russian
Crimean Tatar
Other
Crimean Ukrainian Russian Crimean-Tatar Other DK/NA
24
19
10
37
16
36
23
12
15
11
21
14
16
13
14
18
40
55
56
36
31
31
50
41
15
3
5
10
33
17
5
23
5
11
7
2
3
3
7
5
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
ALL RESPONDENTS
TYPE OF SETTLEMENT
Sevastopol
Simferopol
Other town
Rural area
REGIONS
East
South
West
Regardless of your passport, what do you consider yourself?
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine CRIMEA RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
10
ISSUES
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine CRIMEA RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
11
Please tell me, which three of the following issues are the most important for Crimea?
68
50
37
37
36
12
11
8
8
5
5
5
4
4
4
2
2
Unemployment
Control over price growth
Low industry production
Corruption within the state bodies
Social protection for poor
Relations with Russia
Government incompetence
Delay in salary/pension payments
Political instability
Crime
Rights to land ownership
Lack/possibility of cutting off gas, electricity, water
Hryvnia devaluation
Russian language status
Interethnic relations
Russian Black Sea Navy presence
Other
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine CRIMEA RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
12
Please tell me, which three of the following issues are the most important for you personally?
65
59
38
21
18
16
12
8
7
7
6
6
6
6
2
2
10
1
Unemployment
Control over price growth
Social protection for poor
Corruption within the state bodies
Delay in salary/pension payments
Low industry production
Lack/possibility of cutting off gas, electricity, water
Crime
Rights to land ownership
Relations with Russia
Political instability
Government incompetence
Hryvnia devaluation
Russian language status
Russian Black Sea Navy presence
Interethnic relations
Other
DK/NA
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine CRIMEA RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
13
Do you think it is acceptable or not if some groups of people use the following methods of protests? How acceptable is each of these forms?
67
55
50
42
23
21
23
15
27
39
43
48
69
71
68
77
6
6
7
10
8
9
9
8
Collecting signatures forpetition, letter
Legal demonstrations
Legal strikes
Boycott
Demonstrations withoutpermission
Strikes without permission
Blocking of major roads
Occupation of buildings orenterprises
Acceptable Not acceptable DK/NA
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine CRIMEA RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
14
If Ukraine was able to enter only one international economic union, which entity should it be with?
17 53 8 22
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
May 2013
The European Union Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan Other DK/NA
% % % % % % % % % % %
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine CRIMEA RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
15
How would you evaluate your attitude to the following entities?
68
14
13
10
6
26
70
61
77
68
5
15
23
12
24
1
1
3
1
2
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Russia
European Union
Turkey
Poland
USA
Warm Neutral Cold DK/NA
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine CRIMEA RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
16
How would you evaluate current relations between Ukraine and Russia?
4
6
15
9
23
16
34
26
12
22
5
12 1
6
8
0 20 40 60 80 100
May 2013
Oct 2011
Friendly Good neighbor Quite warm Neutral Cold Tense Hostile DK/NA
% % % % % %
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine CRIMEA RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
17
In your opinion, what should the status of Crimea be?
49
53
4
12
6
2
33
23
8
10
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Oct 2011
May 2013
Autonomy in Ukraine (as today) Crimean Tatar autonomy within UkraineCommon oblast of Ukraine Crimea should be separated and given to RussiaDK/NA
17
% % % % % % % % % % %
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine CRIMEA RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
18
Land ownership is a very important issue in Crimea. Many Crimean Tartars believe they should be allocated land by the government to
compensate for the deportation. Do you agree or disagree with this opinion?
18 IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine CRIMEA RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
19
Do you believe tension between Crimean Tatars and non-Tatar Crimean residents has increased or decreased during the last 12 months?
6
5
9
8
44
40
29
35
12
12
0 20 40 60 80 100
Oct 2011
May 2013
Has increased Has decreased No changes There is no tension DK/NA
19
% % % % % %
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine CRIMEA RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
20
How would you evaluate the level of Ukraine’s involvement into solution of the Crimean Tatars’ problems?
Does not deal at all13%
Fully sufficient14%
DK/NA29%
Rather insufficient7%
Rather sufficient37%
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine CRIMEA RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
21
In your opinion, are ethnic Crimeans sufficiently represented in the Crimean authority bodies?
Definitely yes28%
Definitely no2%
DK/NA26%
Rather no12%
Rather yes32%
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine CRIMEA RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
22
Are you going to take part in the elections of Kurultai* delegates of the Crimean Tatar people? Crimean Tatars, n=184
DK/NA38%
Definitely no2%
Definitely yes28%
Rather no3%
Rather yes29%
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine CRIMEA RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
*The Kurultai is a 250-person elected body that is responsible for serving as the elected advocacy body for the Crimean Tatar people.
23
In your opinion, has your nationality influenced your employment prospects?
Crimean Tatars, n=184
DK/NA42%
Has influenced positively
2%
Hasn’t had any influence
45%
Has influenced negatively
11%
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine CRIMEA RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
24
Who should be in charge of organizing memorial events dedicated to the memory of genocide of the Crimean Tatar people?
Crimean Tatars, n=184
DK/NA36%
Other 3%
Mejlis* of the Crimean Tatar people
36%
Authority bodies18%
Opposition to the Mejlis of the Crimean
Tatar people7%
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine CRIMEA RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
*The Mejlis is the central executive body of the Kurultai of Crimean Tatars, living in their homeland of Crimea, Ukraine.
25
There is a provision in Ukrainian legislation that requires a rayon council to address an issue if it is raised in a citizen initiated public hearing. Are you aware of this
provision in the law or have you ever taken part in a public hearing?
1
1
4
14
10
14 59
15
22
23
67
70
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
May 2013
Oct 2011
Nov 2009
Yes, I have participated in a public hearingYes, I am aware of this provision but I have not participated in a public hearingNo, I am not aware of this provision and have not participated in a public hearingDK/NA
25
% % % % % % % % % % %
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine CRIMEA RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
26
POLITICS
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine CRIMEA RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
27
If pre-term parliamentary elections were announced today, would you vote in such elections?
Definitely yes29%
Rather no15%
Definitely no23%
DK/NA6%
Rather yes27%
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine CRIMEA RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
28
Would you participate in the presidential election, if it were to take place next Sunday?
Definitely yes33%
Rather no22%
Definitely no12%
DK/NA9%
Rather yes24%
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine CRIMEA RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
29
In your opinion, has the situation in the following areas improved or worsened during last two years?
7661
56
5451
49
4744
44
42
4140
34
3326
24
1616
15
2031
38
3638
36
3842
40
36
4543
44
4356
54
6359
73
33
5
84
13
1211
4
18
116
18
1915
19
1712
5
15
1
27
2
33
12
4
310
4
53
3
413
7
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Prices
Healthcare
Housing and communal servicesEmployment
Agriculture
Economy of UkraineFight against corruption
Stability of hryvnia
Rights to land ownership
Social protection Fight against criminality
Small and medium business
Government competence Political stability
Salary/pension payments
Relations with RussiaSituation with languages
European integration of Ukraine
Interethnic relations
Worsened Stayed the same Improved DK/NAIRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine CRIMEA RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
30
MASS MEDIA
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine CRIMEA RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
31
On average, how many times per week do you use Internet?
16
23
19
4
7
15
6
9
14
6
5
7
6
3
4
57
52
40
5
1
1
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Nov 2009
Oct 2011
May 2013
Every day 5-6 times per week 3-4 times per week 1-2 times per week Less often Never DK/NA
% % % % % % % % % % %
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine CRIMEA RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
32
SELF-PERCEIVED SOCIO-ECONOMIC STATUS
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine CRIMEA RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
33
What can you say about the financial status of your family?
5.5
7
19
23.5
27
26
48
39
28
19
21
18
2
3 1 4
51
2
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
May 2013
Oct 2011
Nov 2009
Need to save money for food
Enough money for food but it is necessary to save or borrow money for buying clothes and shoes
Enough money for food and necessary clothes and shoes. It is necessary to save or borrow money for such purchases as agood suit, a mobile phone or a vacuum cleanerEnough money for food, buying clothes, shoes and other purchases. It is necessary to save or borrow money for purchasingmore expensive things (such as a laundry machine or a refrigerator)Enough money for food, buying clothes, shoes and expensive purchases. It is necessary to save or borrow money forpurchases like a car or an apartmentI can buy anything at any time
DK/NA
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine CRIMEA RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
34
SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHICS
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine CRIMEA RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
35
Gender
Male45%
Female55%
Age groups
50+43%
18-2923%
30-4934%
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine CRIMEA RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
36
Education
University, higher29%
General secondary21%
Primary1%
Vocational secondary41%
Non-complete secondary
4%Non-complete higher4%
Membership in a political party or nongovernmental organization
Member of a nongovernmental
organization1%
None96%
Member of a party3%
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine CRIMEA RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
37
Attendance of religious service
Few times a week3%
Once a week7%
Once a month10%
A few times per year37%
Never43%
Religion
Orthodox58%
Muslim15%
Atheist2%
Other2%
I believe in God but don't belong to any
religion10%
DK/NA13%
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine CRIMEA RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
38
Sector of employment
Private sector37%
Don't work50%
State sector13%
Public non-government sector0.3%
Occupation
Student7%
Housewife8%
Unemployed6%
Other4%
Higher and medium level executive
1%
Pensioner25%
White collar29%
Blue collar16%
Farmer4%
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine CRIMEA RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
39
Language usually spoken at home
Russian and other equally
3%Ukrainian and Russian
equally3%
Crimean Tatar10%
Ukrainian2%
Russian82%
Ethnicity
Other6%
Crimean Tatar15%
Ukrainian20%
Russian59%
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine CRIMEA RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013
40
SETTLEMENT
Rural areas31%
Other towns38%
Sevastopol16%
Simferopol15%
IRI, USAID, Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization, Rating Group Ukraine CRIMEA RESIDENTS SURVEY, May 2013