PUBLIC OPINION AND POLITICAL SOCIALIZATION
Dec 24, 2015
• Public opinion – the aggregate of individual attitudes or beliefs shared by some portion of the adult population– Extremely dynamic; shaped by and shapes groups– The private becomes public
• Distribution of Opinion– Consensus : general agreement among the people– Divisive Opinion: Public opinion that is polarized between
two positions
What is Public Opinion?
Shaping Opinion• Political Socialization - The
process in which individuals acquire political beliefs and values
• Major Agents of Socialization– Family– School– Peers– Media (opinion leaders)
The Family and Education
• Family: Most important agent of socialization– Families have similar political views– Usually hold same party affiliation as parents
• Influence of adult children in 2008 election
• School: pass on American political values– Significant formal influence
• Intentional via curriculum• Unintentional via teacher behavior and attitude
Peer groups and Media
• Peer Groups: increases in influence with age– May stem from group
participation in the political– Often indirect; shapes how to
behave in relationships, transmission of social behavior
• Media: Communicates the issues– Often most common
connection to opinion leaders – Agenda Setting
Other Factors• Political Events
– Lifestyle effect: Certain attitudes at certain ages• Being a teenager vs. being a parent
– Generational effect: event that has lasting impact• Watergate and 9/11
• Religion – predicts party affiliation and voting behavior–
Social Status Theory• Catholics & Jews – Associated with the Democratic Party because
used to be poor and therefore democratic.
– Religious Tradition Theory: The moral teachings guides party affiliation.• Jews – Social justice• Protestants – Personal salvation
Other Factors
• Identity Politics– Socio-Economic Status– Race and Ethnicity– Gender– Region
• Election specific-factors– Party Identification– Perception of the
Candidates– Issue Preferences
How We Form Political Opinions
Political OpinionsPersonalBeliefs
PoliticalKnowledge
CuesFrom
Leaders
Opinion Polls
Polls are interviews or surveys of a sample of citizens used to estimate how the public feels about an issue or set of issues.
Early Efforts to Influence and Measure Public Opinion
• Public opinion polling as we know it today developed in the 1930s.
• As early as 1824, newspapers have tried to predict election winners using polls.
• Literary Digest used straw polls that are now seen as highly problematic.
• The American Voter was published in 1960 and continues to influence the way we think of mass attitudes and behavior. – This book studied the 1952 and 1956 presidential elections and
discussed how class coalitions led to party affiliation.
How We Measure Public Opinion
In order for a poll to be reliable, it must have:
• Proper question wording• An accurate sample
– contacting respondents – Since 95% of Americans have phones, random phone calling would be a valid method.
Sampling Techniques• Representative Sampling - To accurately predict the whole based on only a
sample, the sample must be representative.– Sample of interviewees should reflect population as a whole
• Randomness - A purely random sample will be representative within the stated margin of error. – every person in the defined population has to have an equal chance of being selected– The larger the sample of the population, the smaller the margin of error– quota sampling: researchers decide how many persons of certain types they need in
the survey: ex. minorities, women, or farmers • Within the categories, the sample may be nonrandom and therefore biased.
• The Importance of Accuracy - interview about 1500 individuals to measure sentiment of 200 million American adults– Their results have a high probability of being correct—within a margin of three
percentage points—and they have had some notable successes in accurately predicting election results.
Problems with Polls• Sampling Errors: the difference between a sample’s results and
the true result if the entire population had been interviewed. – The sample is too small – Do not know how to correct for common biases in samples.
• Poll Questions: The design of a question can affect the result. – Yes/no answers are a problem if the issue admits to shades of gray– Often, people will attempt to please the interviewer
• Push Polls: attempts to spread negative statements about a candidate by posing as a pollster and using long questions containing information about the opposition– Both candidates and advocacy groups use push polls.
• In general, do not trust a poll that does not tell you the question wording, the sampling method, and the ways in which respondents were contacted.
• Reputable pollsters will also tell you the number of respondents (the 'n') and the error rate (+ or - 5%).
• Any poll that tells you to call 555-5554 for yes and 555-5555 for no is unscientific and unreliable. This is not a random sample at all!
How We Measure Public Opinion
Types of Polls• Tracking polls--continuous surveys that enable a
campaign to chart its daily rise and fall in popularity. These may be a decent measure of trends.
• Exit polls--polls conducted at polling places on election day.
• Deliberative polls--a new kind of poll first tried in 1996. A relatively large scientific sample of Americans (600) were selected for intensive briefings, discussions, and presentations about issue clusters including foreign affairs, the family, and the economy.
• A deliberative poll attempts to measure what the public would think if they had better opportunities to thoughtfully consider the issues first.