Public Opinion

Public Opinion and Public Opinion and Political SocializationPolitical Socialization

At 2:18 am on Nov 9, 2000, one of the major TV networks At 2:18 am on Nov 9, 2000, one of the major TV networks made the call that GW Bush would become the 43made the call that GW Bush would become the 43rdrd president of president of

the US. All the major networks quickly followed suit. But , as we the US. All the major networks quickly followed suit. But , as we all know now, that was not the end of it. As demands for recounts all know now, that was not the end of it. As demands for recounts and litigation went on, it became a field day for pollsters and their and litigation went on, it became a field day for pollsters and their critics. In fact, the orginal call awarding Florida to AL Gore came critics. In fact, the orginal call awarding Florida to AL Gore came early in the evening and was based not on actually vote totals, but early in the evening and was based not on actually vote totals, but on projections from the Voter News Service, an exit poll service on projections from the Voter News Service, an exit poll service

used by new organizations. used by new organizations. Between Nov 11-12, 2000:Between Nov 11-12, 2000:

55% favored a recount (80% of Gore voters, 20% 55% favored a recount (80% of Gore voters, 20% of of Bush VotersBush VotersBetween No 25-26, 2000:Between No 25-26, 2000:

51% said Bush was the real winner51% said Bush was the real winner15% said Gore was the real winner15% said Gore was the real winner

32% were unsure32% were unsure

What is public opinion?What is public opinion?

What the public thinks about a particular issue What the public thinks about a particular issue or set of issues at any point in time.or set of issues at any point in time.

Public Opinion is determined through public Public Opinion is determined through public opinion polls which are interviews or surveys opinion polls which are interviews or surveys with samples of citizens that are used to with samples of citizens that are used to estimate the feeling and beliefs of the entire estimate the feeling and beliefs of the entire population.population.

Efforts to influence Public OpinionEfforts to influence Public Opinion The Federalist Papers were one of the first The Federalist Papers were one of the first

major attempts to change public opinion and major attempts to change public opinion and gain support for the newly drafted US gain support for the newly drafted US Constitution.Constitution.

Political SocializationPolitical Socialization The process through which an individual acquired The process through which an individual acquired

particular political orientations; the learning process particular political orientations; the learning process by which people acquire their political beliefs and by which people acquire their political beliefs and valuesvalues FAMILYFAMILY SCHOOL and PEERSSCHOOL and PEERS MASS MEDIAMASS MEDIA SOCIAL GROUPSSOCIAL GROUPS

ReligionReligion Race and EthnicityRace and Ethnicity GenderGender AgeAge RegionRegion

How is Public Opinion measured?How is Public Opinion measured? Traditional Opinion Polls- “Lets find out about X and Y”Traditional Opinion Polls- “Lets find out about X and Y” Random Sampling- A method of poll selection that gives Random Sampling- A method of poll selection that gives

each person in a group the same chance of being selectedeach person in a group the same chance of being selected Stratified sampling- A Variation of random sampling- sets Stratified sampling- A Variation of random sampling- sets

of counties and standard metropolitan statistical areas are of counties and standard metropolitan statistical areas are then randomly selected in proportion to the total national then randomly selected in proportion to the total national populationpopulation

Push Polls- Polls taken for the purpose of providing Push Polls- Polls taken for the purpose of providing information on the opponent that would lead respondents to information on the opponent that would lead respondents to vote against the candidatevote against the candidate

Tracking Polls- continuous surveys that enable a campaign Tracking Polls- continuous surveys that enable a campaign to chart its daily rise of fall in supportto chart its daily rise of fall in support

Exit Polls- Polls conducted at selected polling places on Exit Polls- Polls conducted at selected polling places on Election DayElection Day

Shortcomings of PollingShortcomings of Polling

Sampling Error or margin of error- a measure Sampling Error or margin of error- a measure of the accuracy of a pollof the accuracy of a poll

Limited Respondent Options- Polls can be Limited Respondent Options- Polls can be inaccurate when they limit responses inaccurate when they limit responses (ex. If you are (ex. If you are asked “How do you like this class?” and are given only like and dislike asked “How do you like this class?” and are given only like and dislike options, your full sentiments may not be tapped if you like the class very options, your full sentiments may not be tapped if you like the class very much or feel only so-so about it)much or feel only so-so about it)

Lack of Information- public has little Lack of Information- public has little information on what they are being polled oninformation on what they are being polled on

POLITICAL PARTIESPOLITICAL PARTIES

Political Party- a group of office holders, Political Party- a group of office holders, candidates, activists, and voters who identify candidates, activists, and voters who identify with a group label and seek to elect to public with a group label and seek to elect to public office individuals who run under than labeloffice individuals who run under than label

Machine- a party organization that recruits its Machine- a party organization that recruits its members with tangible incentives and is members with tangible incentives and is characterized b y a high degree of control over characterized b y a high degree of control over member activitymember activity

The Golden AgeThe Golden Age From 1860 to today- same two major parties From 1860 to today- same two major parties

(Democrats and Republicans) have dominated (Democrats and Republicans) have dominated elections in the U.S.elections in the U.S.

1874-1912 1874-1912 (End of post Civil War Reconstruction until the (End of post Civil War Reconstruction until the

Progressive Era Reforms)Progressive Era Reforms)- featured remarkable - featured remarkable stability with the two major parties (which is stability with the two major parties (which is rare in most democratic republics, parties rare in most democratic republics, parties come and go)come and go)

Machine politics very prevalent during this Machine politics very prevalent during this time- led to high turnouts (75% for time- led to high turnouts (75% for presidential elections)presidential elections)

Modern Era versus the Golden AgeModern Era versus the Golden Age 1930’s- social services began to be seen as a right of 1930’s- social services began to be seen as a right of

citizenship rather than a privilege extended in citizenship rather than a privilege extended in exchange for support for a partyexchange for support for a party

Also their was a decrease in the flow of immigrantsAlso their was a decrease in the flow of immigrants Direct Primary- a selection of party candidates Direct Primary- a selection of party candidates

through the ballots of qualified voters rather than at through the ballots of qualified voters rather than at party nomination conventionsparty nomination conventions

Civil service Laws- cut down on spoils systemCivil service Laws- cut down on spoils system Issue Oriented Politics- Politics that focuses on Issue Oriented Politics- Politics that focuses on

specific issues rather than on party or candidatespecific issues rather than on party or candidate Ticket Splitting- to vote for candidates of different Ticket Splitting- to vote for candidates of different

parties for various offices in the same electionparties for various offices in the same election

The Parties EndureThe Parties Endure

Parties have evolved through history and have Parties have evolved through history and have been reliable vehicles for mass participation in been reliable vehicles for mass participation in electionselections

Political Parties help mobilize support Political Parties help mobilize support Parties have National Party Platforms Parties have National Party Platforms

(a statement of the general and specific (a statement of the general and specific philosophy and policy goals of the political philosophy and policy goals of the political party, usually approved during a National party, usually approved during a National ConventionConvention

Party PlatformsParty Platforms

RNCRNC http://www.gop.com/media/2004platform.pdfhttp://www.gop.com/media/2004platform.pdf

DNCDNC http://www.democrats.org/a/2005/09/the_2004http://www.democrats.org/a/2005/09/the_2004

_democr.php_democr.php

National ConventionsNational Conventions

National Conventions- a party meeting held in National Conventions- a party meeting held in the presidential election year for the purpose the presidential election year for the purpose of nominating a presidential and vice of nominating a presidential and vice presidential ticket and adopting a party presidential ticket and adopting a party platformplatform

Party structure not based in Washington D.C. Party structure not based in Washington D.C. but in the states and localitiesbut in the states and localities

Except for campaign finances, all Except for campaign finances, all governmental regulation of political parties is governmental regulation of political parties is left to the statesleft to the states