Public Affairs Round-up by @MSL_GROUP in India - Feb 2014

8/12/2019 Public Affairs Round-up by @MSL_GROUP in India - Feb 2014

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P A Rublic ffairs ound-up

MSLGROUP IN INDIA

February 2014 | Vol 2 | Issue 1

Pre-Election Surveysin India Pg. 2

Lokpal Bill: Corruptionon business, voters minds Pg. 5

Number View Pg. 7


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PRE-ELECTION SURVEYS IN INDIA

Running against popular perception, the poll predicted a

solid victory for the Congress (I).

No one took them seriously until the election results

vindicated them. Pre-election surveys were here to stay and

Roy, considered one of the pioneers of television news in

India, became the face of opinion polls in the 80s and the

90s.

However, the credit for the first published opinion poll in

India goes to Oxford-trained economist Eric da Costa, who

conducted the first such survey before the 1957 elections.

But his predictions for the 1967 Lok Sabha election were

way off the mark, which led to an erosion of trust in the

science.

The early days

Pre-poll surveys first made an appearance in India in the

late 1970s, but gained momentum only after the television

news explosion in the late 1980s and the early 1990s.

Once restricted to the strategy teams of political parties,

the surveys soon caught the attention of the televisionaudience.

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NauE f Th Ex OvrmN, Th OlcEs i i Ikl t Olo, Th Mpc o UsnS

Sanjeev Singh,

Director, Centre for Empowerment

Studies

How its done

To explain opinion polls, let us simplify the process. The

science and the models used are primarily imports from

the West, especially the US, and focus on three things:

1. Selection of respondents and interviewers:As in the

US, the methodology in India ensures that the people

conducting the polls do not have any ulterior motives

in selecting/rejecting respondents (the sample). The

process, called random selection, ensures that the

organisation conducting the poll makes its choiceswithout bias.

2. How to record peoples opinions:In India, it is done by

photo by pib.nic.in

photo by leadtech.in

It was in 1980 that India saw the emergence

of media-sponsored opinion polls when two

young economists, Prannoy Roy and Ashok

Lahiri, teamed up with two young market

researchers, Dorab Sopariwala and KMS

Titoo Ahluwalia, to conduct a poll for India

Today magazine.


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meeting people in their homes and conducting face-to-

face discussions. Their views are recorded on paper.

3. The analysis:Again, the process is similar to that in the

US, where vote shares are estimated and seat counts

projected. This is a very scientific approach that uses

complex formulae and algorithms to crunch data.

However, despite using global best practices, such

methodologies have their limitations in India. This is due to

the cultural differences between the two societies. These

include:

1. The US is more individualistic:In the US, individual

opinions are encouraged and hence there is great

diversity of views even in small communities. India,

on the other hand, is a pluralistic society in which

conformity to social norms is expected. Opinions in

India are largely influenced by the views of communities

or castes as a whole. With social change catalysed

by the information explosion sweeping across urban

areas, India too is witnessing individualistic thinking

in pockets. This gradual transition makes the job of a

pollster even more challenging.2. Indians are more emotional:Collectively speaking,

Indians tend to be less harsh while expressing

their views and often say what they think the

interviewer wants to hear. Hence, assessing the

undercurrent their actual view can be tough.

3. Differences in the democratic process:There is a huge

difference in the electoral processes of India and the

US. In India, vote shares and seats have a complex

relationship unlike in the US, where you first have

primaries and then the actual election. Here, we have

a first past the post system. This allows for parties to

increase their seat count despite a drop in their voteshares. For example, in the recent Delhi Legislative

Assembly elections, the seat count of the Bharatiya

Janata Party (BJP) increased from 23 to 31 even though

its vote share declined by 3% to 33.07%.

Its a bumpy road

With coalition politics taking deep root, the challenge

before research agencies has got more daunting. Most

analysts hide behind the refrain no two elections are the

all pollsters correctly predicted that the BJP would replace

the Congress, they differed on the extent of the rout the

latter would face.No failure is more glaring than the one of the pre-election

surveys of 2004. All the polls conducted by mainstream

media predicted the continuation of the National

Democratic Alliance (NDA) government. However, internal

surveys revealed an interesting insight: While voters

were happy with the governance of the NDA, they felt the

journey has started and needs to be continued. Everyone

felt it is too early to celebrate and boast of achievements.

Moreover, the fruits of development were yet to reach the

rural hinterlands, although there were hopes that within the

next five years rural India will also benefit... This insight

same. Game-changers can crop up almost overnight.

For example, the Aam Aadmi Party, which formed the

government in Delhi, didnt even exist till a year earlier.

Hence, pre-election surveys can often be off the mark.

While they are generally right in predicting a pro-

establishment mood as was the case with the recent

Madhya Pradesh Assembly polls they can at times fail togauge the extent of the anti-establishment mood, as was

the case with the recent Rajasthan Assembly polls. While

photo by new leadtech.inblog


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3. Agencies use advanced statistical techniques and tools that have been applied in precision-dependent environments,

such as missile technology.

4. We gauge sentiments and mindsets. Sensitivity indices assess how sensitive people are towards a party, a leader or an

issue. This helps agencies dig deeper into voters minds and map their true voting intent.

Tolstoy, with whom we started, was asked how public opinion can be changed. It is only necessary for people to say what

they really think or at least refrain from saying what they do not think, he asserted.

There may well be different opinions about opinion polls themselves, but there is no doubt about the need to gauge the

mood of the people in a vibrant democracy like India.

Views expressed are based on the authors 15 years of experience in conducting opinion polls in India and across South-East Asia. He is available at

[email protected]

was used by the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) to counter the NDAs India Shining campaign and the term

aam admi (common man) became a rallying cry.

The campaign used telling visuals from rural India to make its point. This helped the Congress consolidate its vote bank,

especially in the villages and among societys weaker sections.

The NDAs subsequent loss was a shock to pollsters, journalists and political analysts.

Applying the science correctly

The failure of 2004 raised many questions. How can the views of a mere 7,000, 10,000 or 15,000 people be enough to gauge

the view of a nation comprising a billion people, asked political parties, journalists and analysts.

The truth, however, is that polling is a science and with the proper use of tools even a small sample can open your eyes to a

countrys larger thought process. The key is to apply the science properly.

Research organisations today have developed proprietary tools and techniques to overcome the hurdles.

1. Selection of the sample is holistic and ensures all sections of society are represented adequately to register even the

slightest hint of a decisive undercurrent.

2. We predict, but dont project seats. This might seem like semantic sleight of hand, but there is a difference between the

two. Think of seat projection as seeing a picture (static) and trying to tell a story. Predictions, on the other hand, are about

creating a series of pictures (dynamic) and then telling the story. The latter, obviously, is a more holistic story. This is

important in a country where voter opinions themselves are highly dynamic.


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Policy Roadmap

Kpl L: RrpIo N uIns, Voes Mid

An anti-corruption Bill widely condemned as inadequate was

passed by the government in December 2011. The Lokpal Bill

was formulated after negotiations with social crusader Anna

Hazare, who had launched an agitation for it. However, many

felt that the Bill reneged on the promises made to Hazare and

had been watered down.

On December 17, 2013, an amended

Lokpal Bill was passed by the Rajya Sabha

(the upper house of Parliament) to mixed

reactions. An important feature of this

Bill was the independence granted to

states to set up their own Lokayuktas, or

authorities presiding over corruption cases,and autonomy for the Central Bureau of

Investigation.

Amid this drama, a battle of political opportunism broke out

between the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP),

each claiming credit for the Bill. With the general election

around the corner corruption is a central issue and the

rise of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), an offshoot of Hazares

crusade, the party credited with passing the Bill stands to gain

substantially.

So anxious were political parties to claim the credit that eachone of them suggested changes to make it more effective.

In the Rajya Sabha, the Trinamool Congress, the Janata Dal

(United), the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Dravida Munnetra

Kazhagam all extended support unconditionally. Even the

Samajwadi Party, which had strongly opposed the Bill earlier,

kept away during the proceedings. The BJP said it favoured

passage of the Bill without even a discussion in Parliament,

while AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal who was sworn in as chief

minister of Delhi after his partys spectacular showing told

the media: The government is pushing the Bill so that

Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi gets credit for it.

The Lokpal Bill had been one of the longest pending

legislations in India. It was first introduced in the Lok Sabha

(the lower house of Parliament) in 1968 and, only after

eight unsuccessful attempts, did popular opinion force the

governments hand in 2011.

The Assembly poll results in which the BJP retained power

in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, and wrested Rajasthan

away from the Congress while the AAP took over in Delhi

have sparked great introspection among parties.

The United Progressive Alliance (UPA), which has been under

fire because of slowing growth and the proliferation of scams,

has responded by trying to appropriate the anti-corruptiondebate. Gandhi has been at the forefront of the battle for a

stronger anti-graft law, making corruption a central campaign

photo by binayaksen.net

photo by rangdeindia.jp


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1968 Lokpal Bill introduced by Advocate Shanti Bhushan. Between then and 2001, the Bill is introduced eight times

but is always withdrawn or lapses

2002 Justice MN Venkatachaliah-led Consititution Review Commission stresses need for Lokpal and Lokayuktas

2004 UPA 1s national common minimum programme promises Lokpal

2011 January: UPA 2s empowered group of ministers headed by Pranab Mukherjee suggests range of anti-corruption measures, including Lokpal Bill

April:Anna Hazare begins fast at Jantar Mantar, New Delhi, for Jan Lokpal Bill. Hazare relents after

government forms joint drafting committee comprising ministers and civil society members

August:Government introduces Lokpal Bill, which is widely attacked as flawed. Hazare launches second fast

December:Government reintroduces Lokpal and Lokayukta Bill (2011). Lok Sabha passes it

2012 Bill reintroduced in Rajya Sabha, referred to select committee

2013 In December, Hazare fasts again. Amended Bill passed by both houses

2014 Bill receives Presidential assent in January

Sources: Wikipedia, The Times of India, Forbes India

issue. He is also pressing hard to convince other parties to

unite on this matter of national importance.

Earlier, the Congress rhetoric was centred on poverty it

announced various pro-poor initiatives, such as the Food

Security Bill whereas the BJP focused on development and

mocking the UPAs performance. Neither connected with the

middle class and its growing anger. AAP was quick to realise

this and crafted a strong anti-corruption pitch to win over

voters.

Today, its become impossible to woo middle-class votes

without a strong anti-corruption message.

The issue is not just on voters minds. Businesses too have

been affected by the endemic corruption; multinationals and

photo by thenewdimension.wordpress.com

local corporations have found files and permits blocked by

bureaucrats demanding kickbacks.

Observers point out that while the Lokpal Bill is far

from perfect, creating the mechanism was important

Additionally, the government needs to give serious attention

to related legislation pending in Parliament, such as the

Whistleblowers Protection Bill (2011), the Judicial Standards

and Accountability Bill (2010), the Right of Citizens to

Time-Bound Delivery of Goods and Services and Redressalof their Grievances Bill (2011), the Prevention of Corruption

(Amendment) Bill (2013), the Public Procurement Bill (2012),

and the Prevention of Bribery of Foreign Public Officials and

Officials of Public International Organisations Bill (2011).


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Number View

8,00,000Number of polling stations likely to be set

up for the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections,

according to Election Commission

12,00,000Number of electronic voting machines likely

to be deployed by the Election Commission. An

additional 2,50,000 are being sourced by mid-

February, according to Election Commission

44Percentage of voters who said they would vote

for the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in a survey

conducted by The Times of India and Ipsos

across major cities. As for prime ministerial

preferences, 58% picked the Bharatiya Janata

Partys Narendra Modi, 25% AAPs Arvind

Kejriwal and 14% the Congress Rahul Gandhi

Rs 500 crore($80 million approx)Amount being spent by the Congress on its

campaign and on polishing the image of

party vice-president Rahul Gandhi before the

election. If the United Progressive Alliance

retains power, Gandhi is likely to be prime

minister

Rs 33,000 crore($5.3 billion approx)Value of projects that the Prime Ministers

Ofce aims to clear in order to give the UPA

a leg up before the elections and shed the

perception of policy paralysis

Year Turnout (%)

1996 57.94

1998 61.97

1999 59.99

2004 57.65

2009 58.19

2014 65-70 (Projected)

Source: Election Commission / Media Reports

Voter turnout in the last two decedes


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Public Affairs Round-up by @MSL_GROUP in India - Feb 2014

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