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PRX The ProExporter Network ® Grain, Oilseed & Biofuel Fundamentals
Updated 7/10/20
PRXGrain Market Overview
US Major GrainsCrop Years 2019/20 & 2020/21with USDA Jul 10, 2020 WASDE
Area Planted Principal Crops* mil ac 318 329 318 319 319 318 319 303 312 Share Soy + Corn pct 40% 47% 48% 53.5% 55.6% 56.6% 55.8% 54.8% 56.4% *USDA-NASS current data series for "Principal Crops" begins in 1993
Area planted of corn and soybeans increases 10 million acres from last year.
US Major Field Crops Area Planted, 01-02 to 20-21 Crop YearsPRX_Overview, SDU, Jul-10-20
Crop All Feedgrains Oilseeds Corn + Total All Hay Principal Totalyear Wheat Corn Sorghum Barley Oats Total Soy Sunseed Canola Total Soy Cotton Major & Other Crops CRP w/CRP
mil ac mil ac mil ac mil ac mil ac mil ac mil ac mil ac mil ac mil ac mil ac mil ac mil ac mil ac mil ac mil ac mil ac01-02 59.4 75.7 10.3 5.0 4.4 95.3 74.1 2.6 1.5 78.2 149.8 15.8 248.7 63.5 324.6 33.6 358.202-03 60.3 78.9 9.6 5.0 5.0 98.5 74.0 2.6 1.5 78.0 152.9 14.0 250.8 63.9 327.3 34.0 361.203-04 62.1 78.6 9.4 5.4 4.6 98.0 73.4 2.3 1.1 76.8 152.0 13.5 250.4 63.4 325.7 34.1 359.804-05 59.6 80.9 7.5 4.5 4.1 97.0 75.2 1.9 0.9 77.9 156.1 13.7 248.3 61.9 322.3 34.7 357.005-06 57.2 81.8 6.5 3.9 4.2 96.3 72.0 2.7 1.2 75.9 153.8 14.2 243.6 61.6 317.6 34.9 352.506-07 57.2 78.3 6.5 3.5 4.2 92.4 75.5 2.2 0.9 78.6 153.8 15.3 243.6 60.6 315.6 36.0 351.607-08 60.5 93.5 7.7 4.0 3.8 109.1 64.7 2.1 1.2 68.0 158.3 10.8 248.3 61.0 320.4 36.8 357.208-09 63.2 86.0 8.3 4.2 3.2 101.7 75.7 2.5 1.0 79.2 161.7 9.5 253.6 60.1 325.0 33.7 358.709-10 59.2 86.4 6.6 3.6 3.4 100.0 77.5 2.0 0.8 80.3 163.8 9.1 248.6 59.8 319.3 31.3 350.610-11 53.6 88.2 5.4 2.9 3.1 99.6 77.4 2.0 1.4 80.8 165.6 11.0 244.9 59.9 316.7 31.2 347.9
Soybean areaplanted for otherthan ChinaCorn "base acres" inCRP, per USDA-ERS-AREICorn area for fuelethanol (adj. ForDDG)Corn area for PaidDiversion Programs
Corn area plantedexcl Govt Prog &RFS & NAFTACorn area forNAFTA Imports,Corn Equiv
US CORN & SOYBEAN AREA PLANTED, WITH CORN AREA SET-ASIDE for GOV'T PROGRAMS, plus CURRENT DEMAND at POLITICAL RISKMil ac
Days Months Ethanol Production Ethanol Prdn & Forecast USDA PRXper of EIA Petroleum Supply EIA Short-Term WASDE Blue SkyMonth Crop Monthly Energy Outlook Estimates Latest
Year (PSM) (STEO) ForecastMay-20 Jul-20 Jul-20 Jul-20
mil gal mil gal mil gal mil gal mil gal mil gal30 Sep-19 1228 14938 1228 1493831 Oct-19 1300 15301 1300 1530130 Nov-19 1317 16024 1317 1602431 Dec-19 1398 16455 1398 1645531 Jan-20 1400 16489 1400 1648928 Feb-20 1282 16131 1282 1613131 Mar-20 1235 14542 1235 1454230 Apr-20 712 8659 712 865931 May-20 920 1082730 Jun-20 1071 1302531 Jul-20 1166 13728 USDA PRX31 Aug-20 1176 13844 Formula Formula
Crop Yr Crop Yr Crop Yr Crop YrYTD Average EIA Estimate USDA Est PRX Est
14817 14203 14326 14203 Milo mil bu Milo mil bu
75 80 Milo gal/bu Milo gal/bu
2.892 2.892 Milo mil gal Milo mil gal
The EIA's PSM reports monthly in barrels per day, and does not make projections. 217 231The EIA's STEO projects in barrels per day per month Other mil gal Other mil galThe USDA WASDE estimates corn and milo use for fuel ethanol production from the 84 84 Grain Crushings report, which receives 130 surveys or ~90% of total capacity Corn mil gal Corn mil galPRX projects annual production of fuel ethanol in mil gals, then removes 14025 13887 milo & other ethanol to estimate corn required for ethanol production Corn gal/bu Corn gal/buPRX estimates actual RINs required using the latest EIA STEO nonrenewable 2.892 2.892
Carry-in mil bu 989 821 1232 1731 1737 2293 2140 2221 2175 Area planted mil ac 97.3 95.4 90.6 88.0 94.0 90.2 88.9 89.7 92.0 Area harvested mil ac 87.4 87.5 83.1 80.8 86.7 82.7 81.3 81.3 84.0 Yield bu/ac 123.1 158.1 171.0 168.4 174.6 176.6 176.4 167.4 175.4Production mil bu 10755 13829 14216 13602 15148 14609 14340 13617 14738Supply mil bu 11904 14697 15479 15401 16942 16939 16509 15883 16938Disappearance (Use) mil bu 11083 13465 13748 13664 14649 14798 14288 13708 14812Feed/Residual Use mil bu 4441 5147 5233 5091 5470 5304 5429 5621 6000 Residual use mil bu 362 773 943 877 1179 737 729 669 1109Feed use in US mil bu 4079 4374 4290 4214 4291 4567 4700 4952 4891 Dairy mil bu 775 839 816 798 812 846 844 871 856 Beef cattle mil bu 1135 1191 1158 1130 1151 1264 1290 1354 1331 Hogs mil bu 940 985 1003 1009 1027 1122 1172 1280 1283 Poultry mil bu 1135 1256 1213 1181 1203 1239 1297 1347 1324 Other mil bu 94 102 98 96 98 96 96 99 98Processing use mil bu 5909 6501 6649 6675 6856 7057 6793 6312 6662 Fuel ethanol by wet mill mil bu 481 481 481 481 565 534 490 432 432 Fuel ethanol by dry mill mil bu 4056 4527 4767 4814 4937 5152 4887 4370 4696 Total fuel ethanol mil bu 4537 5008 5248 5294 5502 5686 5378 4802 5128
bil gal 12.9 14.1 14.7 15.2 15.8 16.2 15.8 14.2 15.1
Total domestic use mil bu 10350 11648 11882 11766 12326 12361 12222 11933 12662Foreign Exports mil bu -730 -1920 -1867 -1899 -2294 -2438 -2065 -1775 -2150Carry-out mil bu 821 1232 1731 1737 2293 2140 2221 2175 2126Note. DDG Disposition (na until 06-07), with ruminants 30% ration @ 1.0 feed value of corn; hogs 20% @ 0.8; poultry 5% @ 0.5. DDG production thou mt 39534 37873 33941 36458 Corn displcd by DDG mil bu 1045 997 892 969DDG fed to all animals thou mt 27829 26618 23846 25912DDG exports to foreign thou mt 11705 11255 10096 10546Corn displcd by DDG &CGF mil bu 1206 1156 1050 1130
Production mil bu 3329 3094 3042 3358 3926 3926 4296 4412 4428 3552 4181
Supply mil bu 3494 3325 3252 3571 4052 4141 4515 4735 4880 4476 4815
Disappearance (Use) mil bu 3279 3156 3111 3479 3861 3944 4213 4297 3971 3857 4345
Seed/Residual Use mil bu 148 89 105 104 145 123 131 109 131 101 135
Crush mil bu 1630 1703 1689 1734 1873 1886 1901 2055 2092 2155 2160
Domestic Use mil bu 1778 1792 1794 1838 2018 2009 2032 2164 2223 2256 2295
Foreign Exports mil bu -1501 -1364 -1317 -1641 -1843 -1935 -2181 -2133 -1748 -1601 -2050(Minus indicates exports from US) Foreign exports (-) up by 449 mil bu, crush up by 5 mil bu.
Carry-out mil bu 215 169 141 92 191 197 301 438 909 620 470
UNITED STATES Soybean Oil Supply-DemandPRX_Overview, SDU, Jul-10-20
Item Unit Crop year (Sep-Aug)10-011 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21
Soybean crush mil bu 1630 1703 1689 1734 1873 1886 1901 2055 2092 2155 2160 Yield lbs/bu 11.4 11.4 11.6 11.6 11.2 11.5 11.8 11.7 11.8 11.7 11.8Soyoil production mil lbs 18585 19414 19592 20114 21068 21685 22442 24108 24595 25144 25436Soyoil supply mil lbs 21888 21846 22253 21824 22245 23440 24129 25818 26591 26919 27555Soyoil domestic use mil lbs 16383 17799 18576 18934 18864 20162 19862 21380 22874 22100 23000Soyoil net exports mil lbs 3073 1489 1967 1713 1625 2243 2556 2443 1941 2700 2200Soyoil total use mil lbs 19456 19288 20543 20647 20489 22405 22418 23823 24815 24800 25200Soyoil carry-out mil lbs 2432 2558 1710 1177 1756 1036 1711 1995 1775 2119 2355 US population mil 304.8 307.6 310.4 313.2 316.0 318.8 321.6 324.4 327.2 330.0 332.8 Domestic SBO per cap lbs 53.8 57.9 59.8 60.5 59.7 63.2 61.8 65.9 69.9 67.0 69.1Avg price, Decatur, actl cents/lb 53.2 51.9 47.3 48.7 32.9 24.8 28.1 33.8 32.5 26.3 26.6Avg price, Decatur, model cents/lb 53.2 51.9 47.1 48.7 32.9 24.8 28.1 33.8 32.5 26.3 26.6Estimated domestic:Soyoil food use mil lbs 13433 14699 13887 13924 13825 14492 13662 14246 15011 14700 15000Soyoil industrial use mil lbs 2950 3100 4689 5010 5039 5670 6200 7134 7863 7400 8000 Biodiesel mil gals 404 425 642 686 690 777 849 977 1077 1014 1096Estimated crush margin (Central IL):Soyoil price cents/bu 53.2 51.9 47.3 48.7 32.9 24.8 28.1 33.8 32.5 26.3 26.6Soyoil yield per bu lbs/bu 11.4 11.4 11.6 11.6 11.2 11.5 11.8 11.7 11.8 11.7 11.8Soyoil value per bu cents/bu 607 592 548 565 370 285 331 397 382 307 314
Soymeal price, Decatur $/st 346 397 395 378 317 290 303 360 361 344 335Soymeal yield per bu lbs/bu 43.8 43.8 43.8 43.8 43.8 43.8 43.8 43.8 43.8 43.8 43.8Soymeal value per bu cents/bu 757 870 865 829 695 636 664 789 791 754 733
Soybean price, Decatur cents/bu 1130 622 689 446 370 361 336 336 361 360 335Oil & meal value per bu cents/bu 1363 1462 1411 1394 1065 921 995 1186 1173 1061 1046Crush margin proxy* cents/bu 233 212 -29 -10 -375 -379 -15 291 226 128 198* Crush margin proxy does not include local elevation and transportation costs to the processor and should be adjusted for local costs.
Production mil bu 2207 1999 2266 2135 2026 2062 2309 1741 1884 1920 1824
Imports mil bu 97 112 122 168 149 113 118 157 135 105 139
Supply mil bu 3280 2973 3131 3021 2764 2927 3402 3079 3118 3105 3007
Disappearance (Use) mil bu 2418 2230 2413 2431 2012 1951 2221 1980 2038 2061 2065
Feed/Residual Use mil bu 204 240 461 304 200 219 218 114 147 134 151
Processing in state mil bu 925 940 945 951 958 957 949 964 955 962 964
Domestic Use mil bu 1129 1180 1406 1255 1158 1176 1167 1078 1102 1096 1115
Foreign Exports mil bu -1289 -1050 -1007 -1176 -854 -775 -1054 -902 -936 -965 -950(Minus indicates exports from US) New crop exports (-) down by 15 mil bu.
Carry-out mil bu 862 743 718 590 752 976 1181 1099 1080 1044 942