PRRP Songbird Monitoring Proposal Travis Crane, Chandler Mundy, Travis Mote, and Morgan Mendenhall.

PRRP SongbirdMonitoring Proposal

Travis Crane, Chandler Mundy, Travis Mote, and Morgan Mendenhall

Objective

Develop a monitoring plan to be used with habitat management in order to double the number of bird species on the ten-mile Provo River restoration project.

Upper canopy veg. Low veg.

River

Flooded areas

Provo River Restoration Project Dike removal

Replanting

Meanders

FloodingWater Speed

The Habitat Types

• Flooded areas

The Habitat Types

• Low vegetation

• Flooded areas

The Habitat Types

• Low vegetation

• Upper canopy

• Flooded areas

The Habitat Types

• Low vegetation

• Upper canopy

• Flooded areas

Diet

Upper canopy veg. Low veg.

River

Flooded areas

Provo River Restoration Project Dike removal

Replanting

Meanders

Nesting Habitat

Cover

Nesting Habitat

Cover

Diet

Nesting Habitat

Cover

Diet

FloodingWater Speed

Predators

warbling vireo

black-headed grosbeak

yellow-headed black birdWilson’s warbler

Diet

Upper canopy veg. Low veg.

River

Flooded areas

Provo River Restoration Project Dike removal

Replanting

Meanders

Nesting Habitat

Cover

Nesting Habitat

Cover

Diet

Nesting Habitat

Cover

Diet

FloodingWater Speed

1. Species must be relatively easy and inexpensive to monitor.

2. Indicators should be sensitive to the environment and will fluctuate in the same manner as their guild.

3. Species have direct relationship to target population.

4. Most importantly, indicators should meet management’s objectives of being adequate predictors of the target population.

Characteristics of the indicator species

Habitat

Diet

A

B C

D

Model of Indicator Species

Warbling Vireo Vireo gilvus

Yellow-headed Blackbird Xanthocephalus xanthocephalus

Black-headed Grosbeak Pheucticus melanocephalus

Wilson's Warbler Wilsonia pusilla

METHODSTransect Surveys:

Point Counts:

yellow-headed blackbird

warbling vireo, Wilson’s warbler, and black-headed grosbeak

Transect Surveys

Transect Direction

100

m

ete

rs

Point Counts

Relative Abundance

Presence/Absence

Richness/Diversity

Analytical Methods

Computer programs will be heavily used to calculate and interpret data using statistical tools.

Statistical Software

• SAS

• STATA

2=observed-expected

expected

0.95 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.05 0.01 0.0011 0.004 0.02 0.06 0.15 0.46 1.07 1.64 2.71 3.84 6.64 10.832 0.1 0.21 0.45 0.71 1.39 2.41 3.22 4.6 5.99 9.21 13.823 0.35 0.58 1.01 1.42 2.37 3.66 4.64 6.25 7.82 11.34 16.274 0.71 1.06 1.65 2.2 3.36 4.88 5.99 7.78 9.49 13.28 18.475 1.14 1.61 2.34 3 4.35 6.06 7.29 9.24 11.07 15.09 20.526 1.63 2.2 3.07 3.83 5.35 7.23 8.56 10.64 12.59 16.81 22.467 2.17 2.83 3.82 4.67 6.35 8.38 9.8 12.02 14.07 18.48 24.328 2.73 3.49 4.59 5.53 7.34 9.52 11.03 13.36 15.51 20.09 26.129 3.32 4.17 5.38 6.39 8.34 10.66 12.24 14.68 16.92 21.67 27.88

10 3.94 4.86 6.18 7.27 9.34 11.78 13.44 15.99 18.31 23.21 29.59Nonsignificant Significant

De

gre

es

of

Fre

ed

om

Probability (p )

Chi-Square Test (2)

Paired T-test

•Compare 2 or more years

•Sampling units permanent

•Measurement Data

•Data grouped in transects or clusters

Paired T-test

• Is there a statistically significant result?

• What is the likelihood that no true change occurred and that any observed difference is the result of random sampling error?

• Does the observed change have any biological

significance?

Does the observed change have any biological significance?

The power value uses the sample size, sample standard deviation, threshold significance level (α) and an effect size considered biologically important.

The minimum detectable change is another calculation to judge biological significance. It uses the power value to calculate what minimum level of change could be detected.

Species diversity and richness

Species richness is analyzed as a total number of species detected.

Evenness, or the relative abundance of a species, is incorporated with species richness into a diversity index.

Many indices exist; we will use the Shannon-Weaver index

Sampling Design

• Pilot Study

Detect a minimum change of 20% with a 95% confidence level

Ensure capture of population variation

Ensure narrow confidence interval● Low bias, no 0’s

● Increased precision

Determine number of samples and plot size

  acres ave. bird/yr s t E n

Flooded 139 35.2 5 1.96 1.76 31

Upper canopy 318 43.6 5 1.96 2.18 20

Low vegetation 123 22.2 4 1.96 1.11 50

The estimated sample sizes

n=(st/E)2

Field equipment $GPS 15

Range finder 30Waders 15 sub-total

masc. supplies 100 160Labor 15$/man hr man hours $Pilot study

Data gathering 50 750 sub-totalData input 10 150 900

StudyData gathering 204 3,060 sub-total

Data input 40 600 3,660Travel/transport. $

Truck 1,750Fuel,oil,etc. .25/mile 250

Housing 20 days 1,400 sub-totalPerdiem 18$/day/person 360 3,760

Study design $Proposal 7,000

Statistics 2,000Pilot analysis 4,000

Project management 8,000 sub-totalOffice overhead 9,000 30,000

Final presentation $Writing 2,000

GIS 1,000Editing 1,000 sub-total

Printing 500 4,500

Total 42,980

• Population estimates for indicator species

• Species diversity for all three habitat types

• Map of all study sites

• Guidelines of monitoring methods

• Management recommendations

Expected Products