PRRI God and Politics Vanderbilt Presentation

Public Religion Research Institute

Dr. Robert P. Jones, CEO Daniel Cox, Director of Research

God and Poli*cs What Public Opinion Tells us about Religion in the 2012 ElecAon

March 2012

UNDERSTANDING THE RELIGIOUS AND POLITICAL LANDSCAPE

Religion and Poli,cs in 2012 2

Shi;s among Protestants by Race 1974 – 2010

Religion and Poli,cs in 2012

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1980

1983

1984

1985

1986

1988

1989

1990

1991

1993

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Source: General Social Survey 1974-‐2008; Public Religion Research InsAtute, American Values Survey, September 2010 (N=3,013)

Ethnic Change Among Protestants (1974-‐2010) White Protestant Black Protestant

54

10 9

36

3

Shi;s among Catholics by Ethnicity 1991 -‐ 2009


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1991 1992 1993 1994 1997 1999 2002 2003 2007 2009 Source: Pew Research Center Surveys 1991-‐2009

Ethnic Change among Catholics 1991-‐2009 Hispanic Catholic White Catholic

14

2

8

21

4

2008 Presiden*al Vote by Religion

96

78 77 73

47 46

26

4

22 23 27

53 54

74

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Black Protestant Other Non-‐ChrisAan

Unaffiliated LaAno Catholic White Catholic White Mainline White Evangelical

2008 Presiden*al Vote by Religion Obama McCain

Source: NEP, NaAonal Exit Poll, 2008

2010 Midterm Vote by Religion


96

75 69

58

42 40

19

4

25 31

42

58 60

81

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Black Protestant Other Non-‐ChrisAan

Unaffiliated LaAno Catholic White Mainline White Catholic White Evangelical

2010 Midterm Vote by Religion Democrat Republican

Source: NEP, NaAonal House Exit Poll, 2010

6

ROMNEY AND THE MORMON QUESTION


The Evangelical Drag on Romney

40

28

17 13

44

22 21

13

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Gingrich Romney Santorum Paul

South Carolina Republican Primary Exit Poll

All Voters White Evangelical Voters

25

21

25

13

33

19

14 14

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Santorum Paul Romney Gingrich

Iowa Republican Primary Entrance Poll

All Voters White Evangelical Voters

Importance of President having Strong Religious Beliefs (Voters)


0"

10"

20"

30"

40"

50"

60"

70"

80"

90"

100"

All"Voters" White"

Evangelical"

Black"Protestant" Catholic" White"Mainline" Unaffiliated"

How$Important$is$it$for$Presiden2al$Candidates$to$have$Strong$Religious$Beliefs?$

Important" Not"Important"

Source:"Public"Religion"Research"InsNtute,"American"Values"Survey,"September"2011"(N=1,505)""

67%$

33%$

93%$

7%$

83%$

16%$

69%$

30%$

67%$

32%$ 32%$

68%$

9

Evalua*ons of the Mormon Faith and the Religious Beliefs of Mormons


All#Voters#

White#Evangelical#

Republican#

Tea#Party#

All#Voters#

White#Evangelical#

Republican#

Tea#Party#

Mormon&faith&is&not&a&Chris.an&religion&

Mormons&have&religious&beliefs&that&are&different&from&own&

36%$

50%$

61%$

68%$

66%$

31%$

39%$

49%$

Source:#Public#Religion#Research#Ins=tute,#American#Values#Survey,#September#2011#(N=1,505)##

10

Discomfort with Mormon Serving as President


Percentage of voters who would be somewhat uncomfortable or very uncomfortable with a Mormon serving as President

Source: Public Religion Research InsAtute, American Values Survey, September 2011 (N=1,505)

11

PRESIDENT OBAMA AND RELIGION


Knowledge of Obama’s Religion


40

38

18

4

What is President Obama's Religion?

Don't know

ChrisAan

Muslim

Not Religious

Source: Public Religion Research InsAtute, PRRI/RNS Religion News Survey, July 2011 (N=1,012)

13

Views of President Obama’s Religious Beliefs


12

28

16

35

9

Among General Popula*on

Very similar

Somewhat similar

Somewhat different

Very different

Don't know

9

26

18

38

9

Among Whites

Source: Public Religion Research InsAtute, Post-‐elecAon American Values Survey, November 2010 (N=1,494)

14

Impact of Views of President Obama’s Religious Beliefs on Favorability


24

51

39

17

7

32

43

47

39

13

17

3

7

23

27

25

3

6

21

51

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Total

Very similar

Somewhat similar

Somewhat different

Very different

Favorability of Obama

Very favorable Mostly favorable Mostly unfavorable Very unfavorable


15

Religious Differences Scores for Obama and Romney

!0.50% !0.40% !0.30% !0.20% !0.10% 0.00% 0.10% 0.20% 0.30% 0.40% 0.50%

Religion(Index((Scale:(12(=(very(different,(+2(=(very(similar)(Source:(Public(Religion(Research(InsBtute,(PRRI/RNS(Religion(News(Survey,(July(2011(

Percep&ons*of*Differences*between*Poli&cal*Leaders'*Religious*Beliefs*and*Public's*Own*Religious*Beliefs**

Obama%(!0.40)%

Romney%(!0.43)%

Bush%(0.00)%

More%Different% More%Similar%

FAULT LINES TO WATCH IN 2012


Tensions between Occupy Wall Street vs. Tea Party Values


23

6

23

49

Shares Your Values: Occupy Wall Street vs. Tea Party

Shares values with the Tea Party Shares values with Both Shares values with Occupy Wall Street Shares values with Neither/DK

Source: Public Religion Research InsAtute, PRRI/RNS Religion News Survey, November 2011 (N=1,002)

30% 30%

18

Uneasiness about the American Dream


The$American$Dream$-$"if$you$work$hard,$you'll$get$ahead"$

S"ll$holds$true$

Once$held$true,$but$not$anymore$

Never$held$true$

Source:$Public$Religion$Research$Ins"tute,$PRRI/RNS$Religion$News$Survey,$November$2011$(N=1,002)$

44%$

48%$

6%$

19

Uneasiness about Diversity: Race and Concerns about “Reverse Discrimina*on”


23#

29#

30#

36#

44#

45#

46#

51#

51#

60#

63#

68#

75#

68#

66#

62#

54#

52#

51#

46#

46#

40#

36#

31#

0# 20# 40# 60# 80# 100#

Most#Trust#Public#Television#

Blacks#

Hispanics#

Democrats#

Millennials#(18C29)#

Independents#

General#public#

Seniors#(65+)#

Whites#

Republicans#

Tea#Party#

Most#Trust#Fox#News#

Source:#Public#Religion#Research#InsTtute,#Pluralism,#ImmigraTon,#Civic#IntegraTon#Survey,#August#2011#(N=2,450)#####

Discrimina)on+Against+Whites+Now+as+Big+a+Problem+as+Discrimina)on+Against+Blacks+and+other+Minori)es+

Agree# Disagree#

20

Divisions over Equal Opportunity by Poli*cal Affilia*on


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

All Americans Democrat Independent Republican Tea Party

Equal Opportunity by Poli*cal Affilia*on One of the big problems in this country is that we don’t give everyone an equal chance in life

It is not really that big a problem if some people have more of a chance in life than others

53%


40%

70%

25%

53%

40%

70%

25%

50% 43%

38%

54%

37%

54%

Support for More Equal Distribu*on of Wealth



Society would be bejer off if the distribu*on of wealth were more equal Percent Agreeing

22

American Excep*onalism by Religious Tradi*on


58

32

43

54

54

84

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

All Americans

Unaffiliated

Non-‐ChrisAans

White mainline

Catholics

White evangelicals

God has granted America a special role in human history Percent Agreeing


23

PERCEPTIONS OF AFFORDABLE HEALTH CARE ACT (AKA OBAMACARE)


Effect of the Health Care Reform Law on Access to Health Insurance


37

65

50

39 36 36 35

31

20

34

21

28

38 33

29 32

28

39

24

11 15

18

25 26 26 26

35

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

All Americans Black Protestant

Non-‐ChrisAan Unaffiliated Catholic White Catholic

White Mainline

Other ChrisAan

White Evangelical

Effect of the Health Care Reform Law Access to Health Insurance

More people insured No difference Fewer people insured

30%


25

Effect of the Health Care Reform Law on Affordability of Health Care


25

35 33

31 28

24 21 21

10

30

43

31

37

30

19 18 20

35 39

17

30

22

37 38

54 52 51

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

All Americans Black Protestant

Unaffiliated Non-‐ChrisAan Catholic Other ChrisAan

White Catholic

White Mainline

White Evangelical

Effect of the Health Care Reform Law Affordability of Health Care

More affordable No difference Less affordable

30%


26

TAXATION


Is it Fair to Ask Wealthier Americans to Pay a Greater Percentage in Taxes


68 72 72 72

63 60

30 25 26 27

36 39

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

All Americans White Mainline Catholic Unaffiliated White Catholic White Evangelical

In Order to Reduce the Deficit, It's Fair to Ask Wealthier Americans to Pay a Greater Percentage in Taxes than the Middle Class or Those

Less Well Off Agree Disagree

30%

Source: Public Religion Research InsAtute, PRRI/RNS Religion News Survey, November 2011 (N=1,002)

28

The Buffet Rule


70 74 74

71 69 69 69 69 65

27 24 24 26

29 29 28 23

29

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

All Americans Catholic Unaffiliated Non-‐ChrisAan

White Mainline

White Catholic

Black Protestant

Other ChrisAan

White Evangelical

Favorability of Increasing the Tax Rate on Americans Earning more than $1 dollars a year

Favor Oppose

30%


29

IMMIGRATION


Growing Number of Newcomers: Threat or Strength?


53 42

1 1 3

Aptudes towards the growing number of newcomers

Strengthens American society

Threatens tradiAonal American customs and values

Neither

Both

Don't know

Source: Public Religion Research InsAtute, Pluralism, ImmigraAon, Civic IntegraAon Survey, August 2011 (N=2,450)

Polariza*on over Immigra*on Policy By Party


57 56 48

39 40

26

42 46

29

56 55 49

70 67 60

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

FAVOR DREAM ACT-‐Allowing illegal immigrants brought to the U.S. as

children to gain legal resident status if they join the military or go to college

FAVOR PATH TO CITIZENSHIP-‐Allowing undocumented immigrants who have

been in the U.S. for several years to earn legal working status and an opportunity

for ciAzenship in the future

DISAGREE WITH DEPORTATION-‐We should make a serious effort to deport all illegal immigrants back to their home

countries


DREAM Act, Path to Ci*zenship, and Deporta*on by Party

General Public Tea Party Republicans Independents Democrats

With Excep*on of White Evangelicals, Broad Religious Support for DREAM Act


57

44

54 58

64 65 66

40

52

42 40 36

30 30

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

General public White evangelical

White mainline Catholic Black Protestant Unaffiliated Non-‐ChrisAan affiliated


Support for the Dream Act by Religious Affilia*on

Favor Oppose

Dr. Robert P. Jones, President Daniel Cox, Director of Research

Public Religion Research Institute

GOD AND POLITICS What Public Opinion Tells us About Religion in the 2012 ElecAon

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