PROVIDING OPERATIONAL WEATHER SUPPORT FOR URBAN WILDFIRE INTERFACES Mark Jackson Meteorologist in Charge NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard NOAA Fire Weather Research.

PROVIDING OPERATIONAL WEATHER SUPPORT FOR URBAN WILDFIRE INTERFACES

Mark JacksonMeteorologist in ChargeNWS Los Angeles/Oxnard

NOAA Fire Weather Research Working Group October 1-2, 2007

Scope of the issue?

Wildfires in the urban interface can quickly become very damaging and costly – structures burn from the inside out

2003 Southern California Fires:Over 3500 structures destroyed$2.04 billion in property losses $250 million in suppression costs

Based on 2000 census data, 41.75% of the housing units inCalifornia fall within an Urban Wildfire Interface (UWI)

88 cities and 10 million people in Los Angeles County alone

Southern California Fires Since 2003

NOAA Fire Weather Research Working GroupOctober 1-2, 2007

Almost 10% of NWS Los Angeles and San Diego CountyWarning Areas burned!

Where weather fits in

Fire weather support in the urban interface must be:

Timely, accurate,

consistent, effectively

communicated!


Feed initial preparedness Fire Weather Forecasts, Fire Weather Watches, Red Flag Warnings,

Trends

Feed initial fire response Spot Forecasts

IMET SUPPORT

Role of the Weather Forecast OfficeFire weather support

OutlineThe tools for support


Outreach and coordination A day to day partnership! Red Flag Warnings

Digital Forecasts in GIS How they are accessed LA City Fire Department

Local WRF Santa Ana project Numerical model high resolution Santa Ana

climatology

Annual meetings with fire agencies LA County Fire Los Padres National Forest Angeles National Forest San Luis Obispo CDF Riverside Geographic Area

Coordination Center (GACC) Goals of these visits

Overview of NWS Los Angeles Fire Weather Program Reviewing product suite and Red Flag Warning (RFW)

criteria Informs NWS staff of fire agency procedures and

operations Gives users opportunity to provide feedback and

suggestions Build new and enhance existing customer/partner

relationships

Fire weather outreach

LA City Fire Ventura County Fire Santa Barbara County Fire Ojai Ranger District


Listening to the customers

“They listen, which is what we want. If we call to make a suggestion, they’ll always listen and tell me whether they can do it, can’t do it, or will get right back to me. The most important thing is that they are there and they listen.” Los Angeles City Fire Department Assistant

Chief Tony Varela, providing service feedback during a recent South Ops fire weather meeting


Agency FeedbackMark Sanchez – Chief, Ventura County Fire Dept.

Need consistency in forecasts Especially on large fires with multiple

camps Probability forecasts

Tell me what’s possible Air quality and mixing heights

Huge to air operations


Working together


Fire preparednessand suppression

WeatherWeather

FuelsFuels

2007

2006

Normal

Red Flag Warnings (RFW)

They drive the program Issued by NWS fire weather zones

Preceded by Fire Weather Watches Daily conference calls with GACC and

surrounding forecast offices during critical fire weather Calls to fire agencies

Criteria is localized according to customer need and local climatology Reviewed with agencies annually


Red Flag WarningsCriteria at WFO Los Angeles/Oxnard


Dry fuels and any one of the following:

Relative humidity (RH) 15% or less with either sustained winds 25 mph or greater or frequent gusts 35 mph or greater – for 6 hours or more-or-

Relative humidity 10% or less for 10 hours or more-or-

Widespread and/or significant dry lightning

Dry fuels and any one of the following:

Relative humidity (RH) 15% or less with either sustained winds 25 mph or greater or frequent gusts 35 mph or greater – for 6 hours or more-or-

Relative humidity 10% or less for 10 hours or more-or-

Widespread and/or significant dry lightning

WFO Oxnard average RFW lead time thus far in 2007 is 25 hoursWFO Oxnard average RFW lead time thus far in 2007 is 25 hours

RFW Wind/RH matrix approach


Wind/RH RFW Decision Matrix for Northern CaliforniaWest of the Cascade/Sierra Crest (W = Red Flag Warning)

Increasing winds

Incr

easi

ng R

H

RFW feedback

Mixed feedback on number of RFWs Most ok with number, some say it’s too much Can potentially cost fire agency thousands of

dollars in overtime, lost training time, etc. How sophisticated do we make the criteria?

Nighttime RH recovery, sophisticated fuel indicators, or seasonal criteria? Should dry lightning criteria be adjusted for very dry

fuels? No absolute yes/no answer

RFW did not verify in October 2003, but was needed

No RFW prior to Topanga Fire (2005), would not have verified, but was probably needed


RFW feedbackLos Angeles City Fire Department

Concern with false alarms and extent of warnings 2007 Oxnard RFW false alarm rate = 0.04

City may issue Red Flag Alert, prompting parking restrictions in Hollywood Hills Can’t avoid this as a political issue

Working with city and county to split fire weather zones in the county

Can polygon RFWs resolve issue? Provides more GIS-friendly information


NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard (LOX) fire weather zone boundaries


Los Angeles CountyValleys (247) and Los Angeles CountyCoast (241)

Can polygon RFWs help?


Some areas within a zone in RFW that don’t belong – for instance, some parts of the Los Angeles County coast,like the Hollywood Hills

Hollywood Hills

Polygons could allow formore specificity

What is the NDFD?

National Weather Service National Digital Forecast Database

Gridded 1-7 day forecasts of sensible weather elements at the surface (up to hourly)

Near-seamless mosaic of digital forecasts from all NWS field offices Collaborated between offices and centers

Available to users to create own forecast format Text, graphic, gridded, and image products


Is this fine enough resolution?


5 km

Not seen as ahindrance – thoughadvanced usersadmit 2.5 km ispreferred

Designed to givesubjective input onforecast surfaceweather conditions

One NDFD grid box

The NDFD in fire weather support First generation input for NWS spot forecasts Also for NFDRS trends forecast Input for FARSITE fire behavior model

Also for NFDRS trends forecast Web-based interactive weather planner

Experimental tool for fire planning Geographic Information Systems (GIS)

“You’re sitting on a gold mine of data” - Jack Dangermond, President and Founder of Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI) – a world leader in GIS software and technology – upon being told of the NDFD (personal communication)


The NDFD in GIS

Users can obtain by converting NDFD Grib data into GIS shapefiles Requires user several steps 5 km resolution

Shapefiles available from selected Weather Forecast Office web pages “Degribbing” done at the local office Subset of NDFD elements

(e.g., for fire weather)


Feature Service vs. Image/Map Service

Feature Service Make a request for data across the Internet and

receive data back Can be incorporated with your own geospatial datasets Allows for data query and analysis

Image/Map Service Serve maps across the Internet (e.g., Google

Maps) Generally static maps that allow simple panning and

zooming Only need access to Internet; no need for GIS software


NDFD Shapefiles on a few WFO web pages

Medford Salt Lake City


Los Angeles/Oxnard Salt Lake City

Wind Speed and Direction in ArcGISVarying wind vector symbol sizes and colors


Fire boundaries(for scale perspective)

Piru (2003)

Simi (2003)

Topanga (2005)


Southern California EdisonThe power of the NDFD in GIS!

NWS Oxnard providedassistance in usingNDFD in theirinterruptible powerprogram (rollingblackouts)

Cannot disrupt powerfor areas over 105o

or below 25o

Previous system:One meteorologistforecasting for over400 individual cities


GIS allows them to show areas wherepower cannot bedisrupted

In this case, thegraphic shows all areas over 105o

Saves them time andmoney!

Southern California EdisonThe power of the NDFD in GIS!

Access by handheld users?


Access to weatherinformation in the field for fireagencies and other emergencyresponders

Regional and national effortsNDFD in GIS

NWS Southern Region Headquarters working towards implementing NDFD to GIS nationally Setting up prototype to initially include southern

and southwestern regions Proposal to host shapefiles at NWS Western

Region Headquarters Shapefiles (2.5 km) available for each forecast

office and possibly larger geographic areas (i.e. GACCs)

User access through forecast office web pages User defined domains


What needs to be done? NDFD in GIS

Commitment to provide easy access to NDFD for use in GIS applications World of GIS is expanding daily Data must be fresh (Need Map and Image

Service) Domain should be configurable 2.5 km

Hosting at regional servers


Los Angeles Incident Action Mapping SystemA “Common Operational Picture” using GIS mapping capabilities


Developed by Steve Robinson, Pilot III, Los Angeles City Fire Department

Hardware support from Hewlett-Packard; software from Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI)

Used for a multitude of incident applications Topanga Fire '05 Academy Awards '04, '05, and '06 Grammy's '05 Simi Valley Fire '03

System overview (wildfires)


Fire perimeter data collected via air operations

Successive fire area “shape files” overlaid to determine the speed of the fire front through simple extrapolation

Equipment and personnel then directed to critical areas in immediate threat of the fire

System can also reveal the populated areas mostthreatened by the incident Shelters, evacuation routes, etc.

System overview (wildfires)

LA Fire Department helicopters are equipped with Infrared (IR) & video downlink capability.

Aerocomputer - Airborne CPU for creation of geo-referenced shape files


Ability to plot the perimeter of the disaster/fire and calculate total incident area

Computer mapping


SIMI VALLEY FIRE PROGRESSION & TIMELINE


Fire Boundary

GIS-based interface

Selectablebase layers


How NWS became involved


Los Angeles Times story highlighting system NWS makes contact with Steve Robinson

First assumed to be sophisticated fire spread model

Further investigation reveals system not designed to ingest weather information, nor is a fire spread model

WFO Los Angeles/Oxnard proposes ingest and use of NDFD winds as additional decision making information E.g., excessive winds near a fire line can heighten the

urgency for response in particular area Other use of environmental information in other

disaster response applications (e.g., HAZMAT)

Integrating weather information


Could help in subjectively adjusting speed of fire line Excessive winds or very low relative humidity

2.5-km, or even 5.0-km, resolution not seen as a deficiency This is a disaster response

system, not a sophisticatedfire spread model

Update on City of Los Angeles System

External factors and events have delayed full use of NDFD in system

Have relayed information on WFO Los Angeles GIS web page to Steve Robinson Will hopefully eliminate past barriers to

implement Proof that we can and should facilitate

outside system enhancements More sophisticated fire spread input?


How can we attain situational awareness?


Highest operational model resolution is 12 km

We know of favored areas for stronger winds Fire fighters are in the field – but we aren’t

How can forecasters better understand theseconditions?

Can high-res numerical models help?

High Resolution Santa Ana climatology

Run workstation Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model Triple nest (4 km res.)

Use North American Regional Reanalysis data from Santa Ana cases

Results available as animations or direct input into NWS Graphical Forecast Editor (GFE) – NDFD

Results to show preferred areas of strong winds


Santa Ana simulation using WRF model


2 December 2006

Simulation begins at 12Z

4 km inner nest

Wind speed/direction andMSLP

Los Angeles

Need for operational high resolution numerical guidance


MM5 guidanceavailable to IMETs working Topanga Fire

September 2005

Winds and wind speed6 hr forecast

4 km resolution

Topanga fire

Summary and takeaways

Weather support for Urban Wildfire Interface requires aggressive agency partnerships Cannot apply wilderness wildfire suppression

response Requires quick action and fast response

Requires exploration and application of latest fire weather and suppression technology

NDFD must be “GIS-friendly” Explore polygon-based RFW Operational implementation and use of higher

resolution numerical model guidanceNOAA Fire Weather Research Working Group

October 1-2, 2007

October 2003

Thank you!Thank you!

Questions?Questions?

NOAA Fire Weather Research Working Group

October 1-2, 2007

PROVIDING OPERATIONAL WEATHER SUPPORT FOR URBAN WILDFIRE INTERFACES Mark Jackson Meteorologist in Charge NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard NOAA Fire Weather Research.

Documents

weather forecasts

weather watches

weather meetingnoaa

operational weather

los angeles city

urban interface

urban wildfire interface

san diego county warning