PROSPECTS FOR CO 2 CAPTURE AND STORAGE Energy Technology Scenarios Prospects for CO 2 Capture and Storage Dolf Gielen Jacek Podkanski International Energy Agency, Paris Clearwater Coal Conference, 17-21 April 2005
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PROSPECTS FOR
CO2 CAPTURE AND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
Prospects for CO2 Capture and Storage
Dolf GielenJacek Podkanski
International Energy Agency, Paris
Clearwater Coal Conference, 17-21 April 2005
PROSPECTS FOR
CO2 CAPTURE AND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
Topics
Why CCS ?The ETP modelResultsConclusions
PROSPECTS FOR
CO2 CAPTURE AND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
Part 1: Why CCS ?
PROSPECTS FOR
CO2 CAPTURE AND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
CCS pros
Fossil fuels will remain a dominant energy source in the next 50 years;
CCS can result in a drastic emissions reduction;
Very suited for large point sources;Realistic policy potential.
PROSPECTS FOR
CO2 CAPTURE AND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
Part 2: The ETP Model
PROSPECTS FOR
CO2 CAPTURE AND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
The ETP model
Energy Technology Perspectives modelTechnology rich partial equilibrium
model15 world regions;From “well to wheel”;Detailed characterization of existing and
new energy technologies;Selects CCS or other technology options
from technology database, based on cost-effectiveness.
PROSPECTS FOR
CO2 CAPTURE AND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
Model input data
CO2 capture, transportation and storage is modelled separately;
Capture in electricity sector, manufacturing industry, fuels processing;
Storage: aquifers, EOR (incl. depleted oil fields), EGR (incl. depleted gas fields), ECBM. Oceanic storage is not considered;
Existing and new CCS technologies;Other options to mitigate CO2 emissions;CO2 incentives 10-25-50-100 USD/t CO2.
PROSPECTS FOR
CO2 CAPTURE AND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
Example GLO50: A gradual introduction of CO2 incentives
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
[US
D/t
CO
2]
OECD and Transition Economies Developing countries
PROSPECTS FOR
CO2 CAPTURE AND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
Part 3: Results
PROSPECTS FOR
CO2 CAPTURE AND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
0
5
10
15
20
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
[Gt
CO
2/y
r]
GLO50 B C D
Capture potential 2050
5-19 Gt CO2/yr
PROSPECTS FOR
CO2 CAPTURE AND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
Key uncertainties
Key parametersPolicy ambition + scope (penalty level +
developing countries yes/no)Nuclear expansion potentialCCS technology progress
Less important parametersGDP growthRenewables characteristicsMarket structure
PROSPECTS FOR
CO2 CAPTURE AND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
IGCC/Coal plays a key role
PROSPECTS FOR
CO2 CAPTURE AND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
IGCC and steam cycles
Steam cycles and IGCC are competing options for coal-based electricity generation with CO2 capture and storage
Without synfuel cogeneration in IGCC installations the CCS potential declines by 30%
PROSPECTS FOR
CO2 CAPTURE AND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
Coal use with CCS
PROSPECTS FOR
CO2 CAPTURE AND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
Decline in coal use w/o CCS
PROSPECTS FOR
CO2 CAPTURE AND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
BASE GLO50 H2-optimal Biofuelsoptimal
Biofuelsrealism
2002 2050 2050 2050 2050 2050
[EJ
/yr]
Refinery products FT biomass FT natural gasFT coal Other biofuels Natural gasHydrogen Electricity
Transportation fuelsCoal derived fuels
PROSPECTS FOR
CO2 CAPTURE AND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
CCS use for transportation fuels
0
2
4
6
8
10
BASE GLO50 H2-optimal
Biofuelsoptimal
Biofuelsrealism
CO
2 c
ap
ture
[G
t/y
r]
Other
FT biomass
H2 natural gas
H2 IGCC Coal"FutureGen"
PROSPECTS FOR
CO2 CAPTURE AND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
Hydrogen production
0
5
10
15
20
25
1650 USD/kW 2000 USD/kW 2250 USD/kW
Hyd
rog
en p
rod
uct
ion
[E
J/yr
]
Other
IGCC coal + CCS
PROSPECTS FOR
CO2 CAPTURE AND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
Part 4: Conclusions
PROSPECTS FOR
CO2 CAPTURE AND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
Conclusions
If CO2 emission mitigation is taken seriously, CCS will play an important role;
With CCS coal has a future in a CO2 constrained world;
This has important supply security benefits; Incentives of 10-50 $/t CO2 needed;Mainly an electricity sector option, but also
possibilities in transportation fuel production; IGCC with synfuel cogeneration looks
attractive, if investment cost <2000 USD/kW;Combine biomass co-combustion and CCS?
PROSPECTS FOR
CO2 CAPTURE AND
STORAGE
Energy Technology Scenarios
Thank you
December 2004www.iea.org
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