Prospective Prediction of Alternative High School Graduation Status at Emerging Adulthood1

Prospective Prediction of Alternative High School Graduation Status at Emerging Adulthood’

STEVE SUSSMAN,* LOUISE A. ROHRBACH, SILVANA SUM, AND CLYDE w. DENT

Institute for Health Promotion and Disease Prevention Research University of Southern California

Most studies that examine the prediction of graduation status among teens have examined those who attend regular high schools. The present study reports the prediction of high school graduation status 5 years later among 646 youth who attended alternative (continuation) high schools at baseline. Those youth at baseline who: (a) reported less intention to use soft drugs (cigarettes, alcohol, or marijuana) during the next year; (b) suffered relatively few drug-related consequences during the last year; (c) were relatively less likely to have carried a weapon (knife or gun) in the last year; (d) reported feeling relatively hopeful about the future; and (e) were older were more likely to self-report having graduated continuation high school 5 years later. These results suggest that the consequences of drug use, not drug use per se, other illegal behavior, and a sense of well-being are important predictors of graduation among groups of high-risk teens. Problem behavior and resiliency theories are offered as potential explanations of these findings.

The major goal of high school is to prepare students academically to meet challenges in emerging adulthood. Those who fail to graduate from high school by emerging adulthood generally are faced with limited job options and receive lower salaries for jobs obtained than do peers who have graduated from high school (e.g., Hollingshead & Redlich, 1958; Newcomb & Bentler, 1988; Woods, 2001). Encouragement of graduation from high school is a major goal of govern- ment departments of education (Woods, 2001).

School personnel hold varying opinions regarding the importance of the pro- vision of various educational models designed to contribute to the healthy development of adolescents. For example, regarding drug education in high schools, many educators feel that the main focus of education should be on core academic topics and that drug education is best provided by parents or others outside the school context. Others feel that drug education at school is an important means to assist high school students to graduate (Woods, 2001). Consequently, studies

]This research was supported by a grant from the National Institute on Drug Abuse (DA07601). *Correspondence concerning this article should he addressed to Steve Sussman, IPR-USC, 1000

S. Fremont Avenue, Unit 8, Building A-4, Alhamhra, CA 91 803. E-mail: [email protected]

Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 2004, 34, 12, pp. 2452-2468. Copyright 0 2004 by V. H. Winston & Son, Inc. All rights reserved.

HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATION STATUS 2453

have been conducted to examine the relation of drug use with high school graduation. If drug use predicts graduation status, then perhaps drug education efforts at the school are better justified. Indeed, several studies have reported higher rates of drug use among those who drop out of the regular high school setting than among those who stay in school (e.g., Bray, Zarkin, Ringwalt, & Qi, 2000; Chavez, 1993; “Current tobacco, alcohol, marijuana, and cocaine use,” 199 1 ; Friedman, Glickman, & Utada, 1985; Newcomb & Bentler, 1986; Oetting 8z Beauvais, 1990; Swaim, Beauvais, Chavez, & Oetting, 1997; Yamada, Kendrix, & Yamada, 1996).

One may conjecture that the negative consequences of drug use interfere with the completion of academic tasks. In other words, recurrent involvement in drug use, to the exclusion of other activities including attending school or doing home- work, may lead to the noncompletion of high school. This may be referred to as a direct effect of drug involvement h.ypothesis. Preoccupation with drug use per se, a hallmark feature of drug abuse, may predict failure to graduate from high school.

Alternatively, drug use itself may not lead to a failure to graduate. Rather, psychosocial factors that lead to drug use may be linked to graduation status as well. Problem-behavior theory (Jessor & Jessor, 1977) is one conceptual framework that is useful in explaining the psychosocial processes that underlie adolescent nonnormative behavior, including dropping out of high school prior to graduation. This theory describes the interaction of a person with his or her social environment through delineation of demographic, personality, perceived environment, and behavior variables. These variables act as instigators (risk factors) or controls (protective factors) on problem behavior. The strength of these risk and protective factors results in an overall proneness for nonnormative or problem behaviors. This approach suggests that these behaviors are symptoms of an underlying trait known as a problem-behavior syndrome. Thus, drug use may reflect a more general syndrome (of other deviancy-related variables) of youth problem proneness that is more central to prediction of high school graduation.

Various problem-prone behavior variables have been examined as predictors of high school graduation. Deviancy-related variables that predict dropping out of high school include family conflict or noninvolvement (Friedman et al., 1985; Hess & Copeland, 2001); criminal deviance, such as stealing or threatening someone with a weapon (Battin-Pearson et al., 2000; Coalition for Juvenile Justice, 2001); and poor achievement or poor well-being (Battin-Pearson et al., 2000; Newcomb & Bentler, 1986; Vallerand, Fortier, & Guay, 1997). Youth who report feelings of alienation or hopelessness, family difficulties, or involvement in violent or other antisocial activities have been theorized as indicating a problem-prone orientation toward living. These youth are unable to connect well with prosocial others and show an inability to successfully bridge to young adulthood (Jessor, 1984). As another example of this problem-proneness syndrome,

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such youth would tend to reject school life and would be more likely to drop out of school.

Whereas entrenchment in a lifestyle facilitative of negative consequences may lead to dropping out of high school, having a positive attitude as a teenager may, on the other hand, lead to successful graduation. According to resiliency theory, some adolescents have attributes that help them respond better to adversity in their lives (Rutter, 1987). Youth who possess strong internal and external protective factors will be able to resist the unhealthy behaviors that often result from the social stressors or risks of poverty, family problems, or nonsupportive upbringing. Protective factors include self-esteem, social competence, internal locus of control, adhering to a sense of purpose and future, and social support from family and community (Rutter, 1987). Research findings have indicated that a community of support can lower dropout rates at alternative schools (Wehlage, 1991), and they seem consistent with different models of well-being (e.g., Antonovsky, 1984; Smith, Lizotte, Thornberry, & Krohn, 1995).

Lack of equal social environmental opportunity or support toward academic involvement may be another reason that teens fail to graduate from high school. Demographic variables often have been examined as predictors that reflect this hypothesis. Demographic variables found to be predictive of high school dropout include relatively low socioeconomic status (SES; Alexander, Entwisle, & Kabbani, 2001; Battin-Pearson et al., 2000; Friedman et al., 1985) and male gender (Friedman et al., 1985). Possibly, relatively poor males, particularly from minority groups and those who live in single-parent homes, are placed in charge of helping their families financially. Therefore, they leave school prematurely (Chavez, 1993; Woods, 2001). They also may use drugs to cope with their bur- densome life circumstances.

To date, there has been no widely published work that has examined the prediction of high school graduation among youth at alternative high schools (Woods, 2001). Continuation high schools are the alternative school system in California. Over 600 continuation high schools exist in the state. These high schools were created to fulfill a state mandate that all youth receive part-time education until they are 18 years of age (California Educational Code Section 48400, established in 1919). When reaching high school age, those youth who are unable to remain in the regularicomprehensive school system for functional reasons, including achieving insufficient school credits or exhibiting problematic substance use, are transferred to a continuation high school. Annually, approximately only one third of students are graduating on time (1 7 to 18 years of age) in the continuation high school context, whereas approximately 89% are graduating on time in the regular high school setting (derived from California Basic Educational Data System information in 2002; California Department of Education, 2002).

The primary goal of this research is to explore the prediction of high school graduation status of continuation high school students who were surveyed at two


time points an average of 5 years apart, as middle teens and later as young adults. Specifically, this paper intends to establish the predictive utility of direct consequences of drug use, problem proneness, and lack of opportunity (demographic) on high school graduation among these youth. Additionally, the present study intends to be the first to provide any data on what percentage of continuation high school youth report finally graduating from high school several years later, in young adulthood.

To achieve our first aim, this study examines 15 psychosocial variables as predictors of high school graduation at a 5-year follow-up assessment. Five drug- use-related variables were examined: soft drug use, soft drug use intentions, hard drug use, hard drug use intentions, and problem consequences of drug use. One would expect, based on previous work, that all of these variables would predict whether or not one graduates high school. Also, one may speculate that it is not drug use per se, but problems stemming from it that lead one to fail to complete the work needed to graduate. I f so, problem consequences might be a relatively strong predictor.

Four problem-prone variables were examined: weapon carrying, sensation seeking, family conflict, and well-being. Previous work has suggested that students who report carrying weapons, who are relatively high in sensation seeking, who report family conflict, and who are relatively low in well-being (i.e., life enjoyment, hope) will be relatively likely to drop out of high school. While adolescent drug-use variables are elements of problem proneness, they were classi- fied separately to provide an assessment of the direct effect of drug involvement.

Finally, six demographic variables were examined: male gender, White ethnicity, Latino ethnicity, living with both parents or not, SES, and age. Generally, these variables reflect one’s social environmental opportunity or support toward academic involvement. Based on previous studies, it would be expected that males of lower SES who live with only one parent would be relatively likely to drop out of school. One might speculate that Latinos would be relatively likely to drop out to support the family, resulting in part from lower SES, and at least one study failed to find strong evidence of a relatively greater dropout rate among Latinos, controlling for SES (Chavez, 1993). Also, one might expect that those who are older at baseline would be relatively likely to graduate, simply because they would have had opportunities to be in school a relatively longer time.

Based on problem behavior theory and related empirical findings, it is hypothesized that drug use and intentions, problem proneness, and demographic factors will predict graduation among continuation high school youth. Further, it also is postulated that the same variables that predict graduation from regular schools will be relevant to alternative high school populations. Although it is intuitively appealing to infer that the pattern of prediction is different among those who are in schools where students are already at high risk for dropout and who are exposed on a daily basis to numerous other students who use drugs and

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share equivocal attitudes toward graduating from high school, this perspective may be erroneous. To the contrary, these specialized schools may provide the additional personal attention needed to help youth correct deficiencies in life skills (e.g., 15: 1 teacher-student ratios), to increase bonding with social institutions, and otherwise to help them to surmount several risks for drug abuse (i.e., build resiliency) and other problem behaviors.

Method

Data Collection and Tracking

As a survey component of a larger project (Project Towards No Drug Abuse- Trial I ; TND-I), a total of 22 school districts from a five-county region of southern California were recruited for participation in the study in a procedure approx- imating random selection (Sussman, Dent, & Stacy, 2002). Each district contained one continuation high school. The school with the lowest enrollment was dropped from the main efficacy trial and was used in piloting tasks only. At baseline in 1995, surveying was completed at all schools in all classrooms through the use of a self-report questionnaire that assessed attitudinal, knowledge, and behavior information. Participants were contacted once a year there- after to complete a follow-up questionnaire.

Prior to the baseline survey administration, all participants in the targeted classes were asked to have their parents sign and return a consent form providing written permission or refusal for participation in the assessment. Participants were not allowed to participate in the surveys until a written or telephone consent was obtained from a parental guardian. For 5 years, attempts were made to follow a total of 1,578 participants who had been consented and surveyed at pretest. By the 5-year follow-up, a total of 646 students remained in the sample. This 5- year follow-up sample (41% of the pretest sample) was comprised of young adults ranging in age from 20 to 25 years ( M = 22.7 years, SD = 0.9).

Assessment of Attrition Bias

To assess the potential sample bias introduced by attrition, a comparison was made of the current analysis sample to the full baseline sample on 19 measures. Measures included SES; age; gender; percentage living with both parents; percentage White, Latino, or other ethnicity; 30-day cigarette, alcohol, marijuana, and hard drug use (an index of five drug-use items), coded as both quantitative and binary variables; three violence-related measures (e.g., weapons carrying); and depression. The comparisons used a series of single-sample t tests or a calcu- lation of an approximate confidence interval for proportions with large samples (Hays, 1973).


There were only two statistically significant differences out of 19 tests. The sample followed at the fifth year was slightly less likely to have lived with both parents at baseline than was the full sample (49% vs. 56%) and was slightly less likely to be of other ethnicity (i.e., not White, Latino, Black, or Asian). These results are shown in more detail in McCuller, Sussman, Holiday, Craig, and Dent (2002). Subsequently, soft and hard drug use and intention measures, drug consequences, sensation seeking, family conflict, and well-being also were examined on baseline differences between those followed and the full sample, and no significant differences at baseline were found. One may conclude, therefore, that the analysis sample approximated a random subsample of pretest subjects. This pattern of results indicates good external validity for the primary results (Murray, Moskowitz, & Dent, 1996).

Instruments

Drug-use behavior-related items. Drug-use behavior items were adapted from previous self-report questionnaires (e.g., Graham et al., 1984; Johnston, O’Malley, & Bachman, 1999a, 1999b, 2000; Stacy, Newcomb, & Bender, 1991; Sussman, Dent, Burton, Stacy, & Flay, 1995). Questions were directed to fre- quency of use in the last month (1 1 categories, from 0 to 9 1 -loo+ times) of cigarettes, alcohol, marijuana, stimulants, hallucinogens (LSD), cocaine (crack), inhalants, and other drugs (e.g., XTC, depressants, PCP, mushrooms, and ste- roids). Also, drug-use intention items were directed at the same eight drug categories. These items pertained to the likelihood that the drug would be used in the next 12 months. Responses were rated on a 5-point scale ranging from 1 (defi- nitely not) to 5 (very likely). Generally, the 2-week test-retest reliability of these types of drug-use and intention measures ( r > .75) is good (e.g., Graham et al., 1984; Needle, McCubbin, Lorence, & Hochhauser, 1983).

Responses to the cigarettes, alcohol, and marijuana items were averaged to create a soft-drug behavior index and a soft-drug intention index (coefficient as = .62 and .74, respectively). Likewise, responses to the other five categories of items were averaged to create hard-drug behavior and intention indexes (as =

.66 and .76, respectively). Self-reported problem consequences of drug use were established in the cur-

rent study with the use of a slightly expanded Problem Consequences scale of the Personal Experience Inventory (PEI; Sussman, Dent, & Galaif, 1997; Winters, Stinchfield, & Henly, 1993). The measure assesses 15 personal consequences of substance abuse. The first 11 items are the Personal Consequences subscale. The PEI has been recommended by the National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA) for use in evaluating adolescent substance abuse.

The Personal Consequences subscale provides good discriminant validity between interview-derived diagnostic groups (e.g., no diagnosis, abuse,

2458 SUSSMAN ET AL.

dependence; biserial correlation = .72). It is perhaps the best self-report measure available to assess adolescent substance-abuse disorder because of its length (only 11 items), its ability to tap content that is more than just drug use per se, and its relatively high prediction of involvement with drug treatment (Winters et al., 1993). Four additional responses were added to the subscale to provide coverage of drug tolerance and withdrawal symptoms. In this study, the average score was calculated across the 15 items to create a drug consequences index (a = .94).

Deviancy-related items. Weapon carrying was assessed in response to the question “How often have you done each of these things in the last year to feel more safe?” Responses were rated on a 5-point scale ranging from 1 (never) to 5 (always). This measure consists of the mean of two items, “Carry a knife” and “Carry a gun” (r = .34).

The 11 sensation-seeking items from the Impulsive Sensation Seeking subscale of the Zuckerman-Kuhlman Personality Questionnaire were included (e.g., Simon, Stacy, Sussman, & Dent, 1994; a = .75). Participants were asked to circle either True or False for each of the items. A sample item is “I like to have new and exciting experiences and sensations, even if they are a little frightening.” This subscale provides a good assessment of hedonic values and short-term gratification.

A family conflict index included three binary items: “My family looks for things to nag me about,” “My family doesn’t understand me,” and “I have a lot of arguments with my family” ( a = .56; Sussman, Dent, et al., 1995).Well-being was derived from the mean of four items that were taken from the Center for Epi- demiologic Studies-Depression scale (CES-D; Radloff, 1977). Participants were asked how often they had felt or behaved in certain ways during the past week. The four items assessed were as follows: “I felt that 1 was just as good as other people,” “I felt that everything I did was [not] an effort,” “I felt hopeful about the future,” and “I enjoyed life.” Each item was rated on a 4-point scale ranging from 1 (rarely or none of the time [less than 1 day]) to 4 (most or all of the time (5 to 7 days]). Internal consistency on these four items was moderately high (a = .69).

Demographics. Six demographic measures were examined: gender, White ethnicity (or not), Latino ethnicity (or not), SES, living situation, and age. An SES index consists of the mean response across four items that assess father’s (or stepfather’s) and mother’s (or stepmother’s) occupational and educational levels (based on categories derived from Hollingshead & Redlich, 1958; a =

.62). Living situation was coded to indicate whether or not the participant lived with both parents.

Graduation status. At the 5-year follow-up, young adults were asked “Have you graduated from high school?” Responses were Yes or No. A total of 67% of the sample reported having completed high school. Approximately 40% of this continuation high school sample was at graduation age (17% years old or older) at the end of the school year of the first year of the study. Among the continuation


high school students in the current sample, approximately 2 1% graduate at graduation age each year (derived from California Basic Educational Data System [CBEDS] census data; California Department of Education, 2002).

Dynarski and Gleason (1998) reported data from four alternative high school sites located in different national regions an average of 2% follow-up years after an initial survey. A similar graduation rate (approximately 20% each year) was reported. Inclusion of graduation through obtaining a General Educational Development (GED) credential brought the graduation percentage up to approximately 35%. Among the current sample of continuation high school youth, at the pretest assessment, only 1% were 14 years old, 7% were 15 years old, 31% were 16 years old, 41% were 17 years old, 19% were 18 years old, 1% were 19 years old, and none were 20 years or older. Thus, it is likely that at 5 years post- baseline, two thirds of those who reported graduating from continuation high school did so through completion of GED requirements. In the state of California, graduation rates among high school seniors at comprehensive schools (regular high schools; 85% of the state high school population) is approximately 89% (CBEDS census data; California Department of Education, 2002). Thus, rates of graduation are much lower at continuation high schools than at regular high schools, even as self-reported at a 5-year follow-up.

Analysis

Pretest data were used to predict graduation status at the 5-year follow-up. Logistic regression models were calculated in four predictor sets (SAS Institute, 2001). Three initial predictor sets were established. The first predictor set included five drug-use and intention variables (30-day use and intention to use in the next year for soft drugs and hard drugs, and problem consequences). The second predictor set included four deviancy variables (weapons carrying, sensation seeking, family conflict, and well-being). The third predictor set included six demographic variables (male gender, White, Latino, living with both parents or not, age, and SES). These analyses were followed by a multivariable, across- predictor set model, which included all those variables found to be significant predictors in the previous three models. The last model examined redundancy across predictors.

Results

In the drug-use model (Table l), soft drug use intention and problem consequences of use predicted later graduation. A greater intention to use soft drugs in the future and having suffered drug-use consequences at baseline additively predicted not graduating. Soft drug use showed a trend toward predicting failure to graduate 0, < .09). In the deviance model (Table 2), having carried a weapon at baseline and lack of well-being predicted not graduating.

2460 SUSSMAN ET AL.

Table 1

Baseline Drug Use and Intention Predictors of High School Graduation 5 Years Later

Predictor Wald x2

Soft drug use Soft drug intention Hard drug use Hard drug intention Drug consequences

2 . 8 1 , ~ < .09 6.90** 0.0 1 0.01 7.19**

Note. Model Wald x2 = 15.49**. **p < .01.

Table 2

Baseline Deviance Predictors of High School Graduation 5 Years Later

Predictor Wald x2 Weapons carrying Sensation seeking Family conflict Well being

5.95* 0.43 0.57 4.10"

Note. Model Wald x2 = 11.12*** * p < .05. ***p < .OO I .

In the demographic model (Table 3), only age was a significant predictor. Those who were relatively younger at baseline were relatively unlikely to report having graduated from high school 5 years later. Males showed a trend toward being less likely to graduate. In the final model (Table 4), all five of the variables that were found to be significant predictors in the earlier models remained significant predictors when entered simultaneously.

Discussion

Results of this 5-year prospective study indicate that 67% of our baseline sample of continuation high school youth self-reported graduation from high school. Our findings lend support to our primary hypothesis that psychosocial


Table 3

Baseline Demographic Predictors of High School Graduation 5 Years Later

Predictor Wald x2

Gender White ethnicity Latino ethnicity Living situation SES Age

2 . 6 5 , ~ = .10 0.01 0.80 0.35 1.25

12.72***

Note. Model Wald x2 = 16.98**. SES = socioeconomic status. **p < .01. ***p < .001.

Table 4

Final Multivariable Model: Baseline Predictors of High School Graduation 5 Years Later

Predictor Wald x2

Soft drug intention Drug consequences Weapon carrying Well-being

Age

5.87" 4.33* 5.09* 3.79" 8.43**

Note. Model Wald x2 = 25.16***. *p < .05. **p < .01. ***p < .001.

antecedents (drug use and intentions, problem proneness, and demographics) would predict high school graduation among youth who attended alternative (continuation) high schools at baseline. Further, our second hypothesis that variables that predicted graduation among continuation high school youth would be similar to regular high school populations was supported also. Specifically, predictor models indicated that those youth at baseline who: (a) reported less intention to use soft drugs (cigarettes, alcohol, or marijuana) during the next year; (b) suffered relatively few drug-related consequences during the last year; (c) were relatively less likely to have carried weapons (a knife or a gun) in the

2462 SUSSMAN ET AL.

last year; (d) reported feeling relatively hopeful about the future; and (e) were older were more likely to self-report having graduated from continuation high school 5 years later.

Regarding drug-related predictors, greater intention to use soft drugs in the future and having suffered drug-use consequences at baseline predicted not graduating. This finding is similar to previous work that has shown drug use to predict failure to graduate among regular high school students (e.g., Bray et al., 2000; Chavez, 1993; Friedman et al., 1985; “Current tobacco, alcohol, marijuana, and cocaine use,” 1991; Newcomb & Bentler, 1986; Oetting & Beauvais, 1990; Swaim et al., 1997; Yamada et al., 1996).

Previous research has indicated that there are high rates of drug use among continuation high school youth. In a sample of continuation high school youth (n = 2,002) in 1994-1995, we found that use in the last month of the following substances was as follows: cigarettes = 56.5%; alcohol = 64.3%; marijuana =

54.8%; cocaine = 7.5%; hallucinogens = 12.7%; stimulants = 21. I%; inhalants = 6%; and other drugs (e.g., heroin, depressants, PCP) = 5%. When they were assessed, the youth averaged 16.7 years (SD = 0.8), and their ages ranged from 14 to 19 years (Sussman, Dent, & Stacy, 2002). However, in the present study, drug use per se was not a significant predictor of graduation among this relatively high-risk sample. Rather, intention to use cigarettes, alcohol, or marijuana in the future and current consequences experienced as a result of drug use predicted graduation status. One may conjecture that those who still plan to use drugs in the future, while having suffered the consequences of use in the recent past, are expe- riencing a progression of drug use to abuse that impairs their ability to pursue academic and prosocial goals (Sussman & Ames, 2001).

Problem-proneness variables were also predictive of future graduation status. It is well known that dropping out of school is associated with participation in violent and nonviolent crimes (Coalition for Juvenile Justice, 2001). Threatening someone with a weapon has been found to be part of a general deviance construct that predicts later dropout (Battin-Pearson et al., 2000). However, the relationship between self-reported weapon carrying and graduation status has not been studied specifically. Since not everyone who carries a weapon threatens someone with it, it is possible that carrying a weapon reflects more a subjective need for self-protection than violence perpetration. It is also interesting that both drug-use consequences and weapons carrying predicted graduation status, which may suggest that general deviancy or incurring suspension from school is a predictor of graduation status. Future research should examine the relations of self-protection motives, general deviancy, and violence perpetration with high school dropout.

A relatively high sense of well-being was positively associated with later graduation from high school. In other words, youth who reported relatively high self-esteem, ability to move into action, enjoyment of life, and hope for the future appear willing to make academic changes needed in the alternative high school


setting in order to graduate. One may speculate that creation of a sense of community in the school setting enhances graduation rates by instilling a sense of well-being among students. This hypothesis is consistent with research suggest- ing that relatively low dropout rates occur among alternative high schools that provide youth with a community of support (Wehlage, 1991). Also, a sense of well-being is contradictory to deviant attitudes, such as alienation from social institutions, which is positively associated with drug use (Sussman & Ames, 2001) and which may underlie failure to graduate among some youth. Alterna- tively, it is possible that those youth relatively high in well-being already possess those characteristics prior to attending alternative high school. This interpretation may be more consistent with literature that fails to find that alternative high schools increase the likelihood of graduation in comparison studies (Dynarski & Gleason, 1998). Future research should examine in detail how these different types of attitudes predict school success or failure.

Among baseline demographic variables, only age was a significant predictor. Teenagers who were relatively young at baseline were relatively unlikely to report having graduated from high school 5 years later. One may conjecture that older teens simply have had more time to achieve credits needed to graduate from high school. Future research could examine this relationship more closely.

Taken together, these findings suggest that high-risk adolescents manifest problem behaviors that may be both a cause and a result of their lack of success in high school, including dropping out. It is possible that deviant behaviors, including drug-use- and violence-related conduct in adolescence, signal attempts to cope or self-medicate to relieve negative feelings of life demands. Also consistent with Moffitt’s (1 993) work on life-course persistent antisocial behavior, those dis- playing incessant antisocial behavior have faced adversity from birth, possibly as a result of factors compromising prenatal neuropsychological development, and this risk is exacerbated by a deficient social environment. Over the course of childhood and adolescence, these early risk factors limit opportunities for prosocial involvement. If, indeed, youth in this study have experienced this type of development, their negative transactions with the social environment in adolescence are likely to produce anger or frustration that they are ill equipped to manage. Thus, they may attempt to relieve these negative feelings through the few effective methods readily available to them, including use of drugs and violence.

Potential prevention programming implications of these results include the need to address specific problem behaviors, including drug-use- and violence- related conduct, since each of these was a significant predictor of high school graduation. One may speculate that a comprehensive prevention approach that begins early in life to minimize risk and maximize resilience of negative behavioral outcomes is needed. Such an approach may employ strategies that build social-cognitive, social competence, problem-solving and coping skills, as well as positive attitudes. These competencies and skills may increase individuals’

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participation in, and perceived rewards from, prosocial behaviors, and may be effective in reducing negative feelings, such as anger and frustration, which may mediate problem behaviors.

One promising program, Botvin’s Life Skills Training (LST; Botvin, Eng, & Williams, 1980), addresses the mediating factors that research shows can be influenced to promote health and well-being. Based on the needs of the population, a life skills program could include content about academic skills, peer and family influences, perceptions about drug use and violence, and anger manage- ment. Other efforts to reduce risk for deviant behavior may focus on exposing youth to prosocial organizations and their value systems, providing opportunities for rewards for participation in prosocial behavior, and providing practical opportunities for youth to bond to prosocial organizations (also see Sussman et al., 2004).

The results of the present study should be interpreted in the context of several methodological limitations. First, this study only examined selected variables from the various domains of problem-behavior theory. Several relevant variables that were not studied herein (e.g., poor academic performance, early pregnancy) may be relatively important predictors of graduation status (Woods, 200 1) and need to be examined along with the current variables in future work. Second, data in this study were generated from self-report surveys, the accuracy of which could not be verified independently. Thus, it is impossible to assess the extent to which such data may be biased, particularly with regard to social desirability. However, past studies have supported the validity and reliability of self-report measures of non-normative adolescent behavior, including drug use (Graham et al., 1984). Third, graduation from high school was a single self-reported item assessed at 5-year follow-up. The accuracy of these data is not certain. For example, these data may have been interpreted by students to include those who earn a GED, as well as those who complete high school. Also, the self-reports of com- pleting high school requirements could have been inflated. Although they are dif- ficult to access, and we were unable to do this in the present study, collection of corroborative data from school records and other education records (e.g., adult instruction programs) might help to validate these self-reported data. Fourth, the results of this study are only generalizable to subjects who are similar to those examined in this study. Continuation high school students differ in many important ways from general population youth (Sussman, Stacy, et al., 1995). Finally, this sample was highly heterogeneous ethnically. It is possible that these results differ from other, more ethnically homogeneous populations of youths. However, the relatively large number of schools (21) and students (approximately 646) used in this study provides some confidence that results would replicate for simi- larly composed populations.

Despite these limitations, our study is the only one that provides evidence regarding the relative importance of drug use and intentions, problem proneness,


and demographics as prospective predictors of future graduation among continuation high school youth. Very little research of this type has been completed in alternative schools. Future studies should continue to examine these potential relationships longitudinally, as these variables are likely to change across adolescence into young adulthood. Significant findings should be replicated in other samples and with examination of other problem behavior measures and other potential predictors of high school graduation. Advancing research in this area is necessary to identify which, if any, risk or protective factors are specific to high- risk youth, and precisely when these factors are important across the high school years. Knowledge of risk-factor patterns and mechanisms may be translated into strategically tailored prevention programs that address graduation-related factors while being sensitive to high-risk population issues.

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Battin-Pearson, S . , Newcomb, M. D., Abbott, R. D., Hill, K. G., Catalano, R. F., & Hawkins, J. D. (2000). Predictors of early high school dropout: A test of five theories. Journal of Educational Psychology, 92,568-582.

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