Study on water, energy and food security Nexus: research and innovation in the context of climate change Real Time Delphi results Prospectiva y Estrategia www.prospektiker.es July 2015
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Study on water, energy and food security Nexus: research and innovation in the context of
climate change
Real Time Delphi results
Prospectiva y Estrategia
www.prospektiker.es
July 2015
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WORK PLAN AND METHODOLOGY
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REAL TIME DELPHI
CHARACTERISTICS • Real time Delphi method used, in cooperation with the
Millennium Project
• Questionnaire divided in 3 parts: • 14 documented future statements/hypothesis • 3 open questions on policies, instruments and
implementation • Last question on Disruptive Events (with 18
different disruptive events)
• Questions included probability of occurrence (2020, 2030 & 2050), impact on WEF Nexus and research & innovation proposals.
• 159 participants world wide
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ORIGIN OF EXPERTS
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GENDER OF EXPERTS
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FUTURE STATEMENTS/HYPOTHESIS 1. Circular economy and resource use efficiency. Moving towards a
circular economy in Europe is at the heart of the Europe 2020 resource efficiency agenda. Additional measures to increase resource productivity and recover by 30% by 2030 could boost GDP by nearly 1%, while creating 2 million additional jobs. Source: European Commission, 2015.
2. Water pollution. Increasing pressures associated with "diffuse pollution" from agriculture (nitrates and fertilizers) and emerging contaminants (pharmaceuticals and endocrine disruptors) may prevent many European waters from achieving European water quality standards within the next 10 to 15 years. Source: EEA, 2012
3. Groundwater. ‘Vision for groundwater governance’ aims that by 2030 there are appropriate and implemented legal, regulatory and institutional frameworks for groundwater that establish public guardianship, collective responsibility, and stakeholders engagement, including other uses of the subsurface space and its resources. Source: FAO, 2015
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FUTURE STATEMENTS/HYPOTHESIS 4. Water reuse and recycling. Water reuse and recycling practices
can substantially reduce the use of water by the different sectors and has been set as one of the European Commission’s Water Blueprint objectives. Sources: EC, 2012
5. Food waste. Reducing world food waste and loss by a half by 2050 would diminish by 22% the food production growth requirements to meet the global food demand.
6. Ecosystem services. New methods to account for the capital and value of ecosystems, like the Ecosystem Capital Accounts being developed by EEA, are foreseen as the approach to delivering ecosystem accounts and have them considered in policy making in the future. Source: EEA, 2015; EC, 2013
7. Climate change. As temperature increases, it is very likely that the number and intensity of hot extremes and heat waves will increase globally, posing important constraints to energy production. Projected changes in precipitation vary significantly between regions. Source: IPCC, 2013
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FUTURE STATEMENTS/HYPOTHESIS 8. Efficient cooling. The application of efficient cooling systems for
thermal power generation has a great potential to reduce water use by energy.
9. Low water consumption renewables. Photovoltaic (PV) and wind have a great potential as low carbon-low water consuming energies. Research on reducing costs and coupling to other processes to overcome the intermittency problem should be potentiated to achieve market competence and widespread adoption. Source: EWEA, 2014; ECN, 2014
10.Fracking. Global demand for natural gas is expected to increase by more than half by 2035, with unconventional gas accounting for 60% of global supply growth. However, there is uncertainty over the potential development of an upscale shale gas deployment in Europe due to concerns over water management challenges and potential environmental risks, together with social opposition and crossed interests with national energy strategies. Source: IEA, 2011a
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FUTURE STATEMENTS/HYPOTHESIS 11.2nd Generation biofuels. By 2050 biofuels provide 27% of total
transport fuel, and avoid around 2.1 Gt CO2 emissions per year. To meet this vision in a sustainable way, the most cost, GHG efficient biofuels will be needed with special preponderance of advanced water efficient biofuels that do not compete with food. Increasing scale and efficiency improvements will reduce biofuel production costs.
12.Saline agriculture. Use of saline water for agriculture is expected to increase. Changing to salt-tolerant crops and better water management practices could help reduce dependence on freshwater of agriculture. Source: Global Futures Intelligent System, The Millennium Project
13.Behaviour and sustainable consumption. By 2050 the concept of ‘Living well’ will be decoupled from the consumption of physical products, and aligned with economic, environmental and social sustainability. Sustainable consumption will become a mainstream phenomenon. Source: WBCSD - World Business Council for Sustainable Development, 2011
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FUTURE STATEMENTS/HYPOTHESIS 14.Diets. Economic development and improvement of lifestyles are
driving changes in diets towards high water footprint products (meat, fish, high value vegetables). Projections for world meat demand hoover around 455 million tonnes by 2050, a 76% increase compared to 2005 levels. Source: FAO, 2013; FAO, 2012.
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POLICIES 15.Policies. Assess the probability of each of the following policy actions
occurring in the EU for the time horizons proposed: 1. Integration of water, energy and food policies; 2. Political will and transparency; 3. Adoption of participative resource governance
16.Economic instruments. Assess the probability of each of the following situations occurring for the time horizons proposed: 1. Elimination of perverse subsidies and incentives; 2. Increase in the price of water to reflect service cost; 3. Internalization of carbon pricing; 4. Increased volatility in food prices
17.Implementation. Assess the probability of each of the following situations occurring in Europe for the time horizons proposed: 1. Favourable regulation for technology adoption; 2.Capacity building in new technologies; 3. Effective science-policy communication
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DISRUPTIVE EVENTS: 18.DR1. Research and development in nanotechnologies causes a
breakthrough in water technologies. DR2. Deployment of disruptive technologies such as LENR (Low Energy Nuclear Reaction) at scale DR3. Widespread application of smart grids and Intelligent Technologies (IT) for resource management and distribution DR4. Widespread implementation of decentralized solutions in rural and remote areas DR5. Development of advanced Carbon Capture and Storage technologies with minimized water requirements DR6. New solutions for the wide deployment of cheap energy storage DR7. Massive climate change related water disasters (floods/droughts) causing crop failures and limitations to energy production DR8. Innovations in hydrogen technologies driving a shift of the vehicle fleet and a new alternative source of water production DR9. Wastewater treatment plants becoming self-sufficient in energy or net energy generators
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DISRUPTIVE EVENTS:
DR10. Urban agriculture becoming widely adopted with significance contribution to urban food supply DR11. Regulations enabling the sale of surplus decentralized energy production to the grid (i.e. Net Metering) DR12. Drastic (positive) breakthrough in renewable energy desalination DR13. Depletion of fisheries and extended degradation of aquatic ecosystems DR14. Massive migrations due to natural disasters, wars, water scarcity DR15. Extreme social backlash against GMO’s leading to a complete phase-out DR16. Widespread application of solar pumping for water extraction and distribution DR17. Committed adoption of Human Rights and Sustainable Development Goals driving a clear shift towards sustainable roadmaps DR18. Rapid commercial scaling up of artificial food- production
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OPEN QUESTIONS: 19.Do you think regulation is a driver or a barrier to innovation?
20.What social innovation approaches or strategies could be
helpful to strengthen the potential contributions of society in dealing with the water-energy-food nexus challenges?
21.Final comments on this foresight study
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ONLINE QUESTIONNAIRE: Millennium Project Global Futures Intelligence System (GFIS)
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Statements: Probability of occurrence (2020, 2030 & 2050)
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Statements: Probability of occurrence (2020)
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Statements: Probability of occurrence (2030)
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Statements: Probability of occurrence (2050)
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Disruptive Events: Impact
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Disruptive Events: Probability of occurrence (2020, 2030 & 2050)
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Disruptive Events: Probability of occurrence (2020)
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Disruptive Events: Probability of occurrence (2030)
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Disruptive Events: Probability of occurrence (2050)
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LEVEL OF EXPERTISE
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