Proprietary & Confidential1 Ivan Saha, Driving Solar Forward, New Delhi, 27th January 2011 The role of R&D in achieving PV leadership Ivan Saha Head of.

Proprietary & Confidential 1Ivan Saha, Driving Solar Forward, New Delhi, 27th January 2011

The role of R&D in achieving PV leadership

Ivan SahaHead of R&DMoser Baer Solar Ltd.Greater Noida (Delhi NCR), India

Solar PV market in India – Driving Solar forwardNew Delhi, 27thJanuary 2011


Technology Pros Cons Efficiency Application

Multi-crystallineWell developed, reliable, rudimentary technology

available from machine suppliersHigh module level cost 15-17% Home roof top

systemMono-crystalline High efficiency Higher module cost 20-22%

Amorphous SiliconEase of production, scalable, road map to

increase efficiency to 9-10%, low module costLow efficiency, insufficient field

reliability data 6-9%

Solar farms and BIPV applicationsCdTe Low cost and scalable

Raw material availability, Cd issue,

10-12%

CIGS High efficiency demonstrated at lab scale High variability 11-14%

Low Concentrator Low active material costReliability and cost yet to be demonstrated at commercial

scale12-15%

Roof top and solar farms

High Concentration Potential for high efficiency Requires tracking and high DNI 20-25%Commercial and

solar farms

Solar Photovoltaic – Technology Landscape


Source: Deutsche Bank

Grid parity concept

Grid parity will be achieved between 2014 and 2016


World PV installations in 2009 and EU breakup

Source: EPIA

$40 bn industry in 2009 and growing at 35 - 40 % CAGR

More than 3.8GW installed in Germany in 2009 as customers rushed to get system installed

before the change in FIT in Jan 2010


Bright future but clouds ahead!

Source: Centrotherm Research


Source: Greentech Media Research and Suntech, 2010

PV industry in 2011 will adapt to buying behavior levels of all stakeholders/end users, while working to help brand names emerge in the

consumer consciousness

2011 demand2011 demand

• 20.2 GW (iSuppli)• 19 GW (IMS Research)• 16 GW (PV Research)

2011 supply2011 supply

• ~ 30 GW (estimated)

2011-12 oversupply situation


Challenges in PV manufacturing

Long and short term R&D can help mitigate these challenges and accelerate leadership positioning beyond 2012


Sergey M. Karabanov et al, EU-PVSEC 2009

Cost drivers in PV manufacturing

30%• 30% cost advantage down the

value chain• It makes sense to integrate the

whole supply chain under one roof


Challenges in C-Si manufacturing value chain


Example of R&D in C-Si value chain

Block scan of a mc-Si block. Effective recombination lifetime in as-cut wafers from different positions within the block and efficiencies of cells made these wafers

Increased trap density leads to low lifetime

Corresponds to low efficiency

Top of block with large impurities

Tail of block with large impurities

Andreas Bentzen et al, PVSEC-15, 2005

Understanding mc-Si wafer quality effects on cell efficiency

Inclusion of metal impurities causes low Rsh

L. Carnel, et al, PI, 7th Ed


Innovation and product differentiation

• Innovation and product differentiation is the key to survival in PV•Equipment innovations are happening in Europe and US, manufacturing innovations are happening in Asia. Chinese players are playing a key role

SEMI China 2009

HIT - Sanyo

Pluto - Suntech

A300 – Sunpower

1% (abs.) efficiency = 5% manufacturing $


QD emitter

QD Cell Eg=2eV

QD junction

QD Cell Eg=1.5 eV

QD junction

Bulk Si Eg=1.1eV

Example of long term R&D – 3rd Gen PV (QD cells)

Proposed structure for an all-silicon QD cell

Martin Green, EUPVSEC, 2009

Martin Green, EUPVSEC, 2009

Long term R&D - Demonstrating manufacturing level efficiencies with this or other disruptive technologies are critical for future leadership positioning

Si- QD solar cells are projected to reach >25% lab level conversion efficiencies by 2010-11


Manufacturing yields and OEE

•PV manufacturing lines are less complicated than semiconductor manufacturing lines. However they pose significant challenges in terms of overall equipment effectiveness (OEE) and yield.

•Present trend lies in standardized manufacturing solutions or turnkey lines sold by big equipment manufacturers (eg. Schmid, Centrotherm, Roth and Rau)

•Yield and OEE continue to be dominant factors for established technologies like C-Si. For technologies like CIGS, a-Si, or CdTe, these parameters ultimately determine whether the technology is viable in volume manufacturing

1% improvement in yield and 1% improvement of OEE on a 100 MW Cr-Si manufacturing line is equivalent to generating $4Mn/yr of revenue

Centrotherm C-Si Flexline

Innovations focus•Defining equipment layout for optimized line performance•Value engineering in equipment /automation for delivering high yields•Yield management by process and machine interactions


Controlling manufacturing variations in C-Si

2

efficiency cell

2

measure

2

process

2

wafer

100% automated wafer inspection

Continuous monitoring of process CTQs• Etch depth• Sheet resistance• SiNx thickness• etc. etc.

Monitor and control Gage R&R of Sun Simulator

Focus on intelligent process control to minimize variances


Ensuring product reliability

Some important tests performed as per IEC 61215/61646/61730 and UL 1703

•Temperature Cycling• Damp Heat• UV preconditioning• Humidity Freeze• Hot spot • Module temperature • Insulation resistance• Wet leakage current• Visual Inspection• Bypass diode thermal•Performance at STC and NOCT• Hail Test• Mechanical Integrity • Fire test

•All PV products are sold with 25 years of power output warranty and 10 years of manufacturing warranty.

•The warranty terms are being constantly upgraded•Long term reliability of process, materials and workmanship are therefore of utmost importance.


Challenges in PV reliability

• Machines/material/process effects: cannot be separately addressed. Usually they are interlinked and used beyond their design limits.

• 25-year warranty: How does one validate the warranty? Can this be extended further?

• Warranty for all field conditions: The warranty must hold good for a varied and harsh field condition. Can there be different warranty conditions specific to geography?

• Stress factors for testing reliability: The tests available are few and long duration. Hinders time to market

• Cumulative and interaction effects: In real life all stress factors have a cumulative effect. Some of the factors also interact with each other.

Strong capability in R&D on PV reliability is critical to success


Example: Module life prediction Rs incr. model

Linear extrapolation of measured dark I–V series resistance change as a function of thermal cycles can give accurate life time estimates

Comparison of the resistance changes in the Pb-free and SnPbAg modules during the cold dwell of acceleratedthermal load.

SEM image of Sn36Pb2Ag solder laminated PV cell subject to 1000 accelerated thermal cycles, showing the fatigue damage in solder

PPRA 2010; 18:168–182


Conclusions

• PV industry is seeing a sea change with prospects of departure from FIT regimes in the top European markets

• This is going to cause a major oversupply situation in 2011-12 mainly because of new capacity additions in Asia

• Established players and new entrants will face severe challenges in cost structures and brand differentiation

• Vertical integration will be required in c-Si manufacturing• Wild card technologies like 3rd generation PV can address

potential $/W challenges• New product introduction through focused long term R&D

while mitigating short term market challenges with R&D driven value engineering in PV manufacturing are effective strategies to attain leadership position


Thank you for your attention!

[email protected]

Proprietary & Confidential1 Ivan Saha, Driving Solar Forward, New Delhi, 27th January 2011 The role of R&D in achieving PV leadership Ivan Saha Head of.

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