ProNet. Korsør 29. November 2011 New dynamic regional development South Scandinavia – North Germany Christian Wichmann Matthiessen University of Copenhagen
Feb 09, 2016
ProNet. Korsør 29. November 2011
New dynamic regional developmentSouth Scandinavia – North Germany
Christian Wichmann MatthiessenUniversity of Copenhagen
The knowledge economy• Knowledge and information: key inputs and -outputs• Information and knowledge: growth in speed of diffusion• The knowledge economy is a network economy• Cohesion: increasing importance• Entrepreneurship and innovation: rewarding• Critical mass important
Globalisation• Competition: on everything (almost)• Growth in cooperation and dependence• Price on transport: decreasing• Price on communication: decreasing dramatically• Price on face to face contact: relatively increasing• Localisation decisions: freedom of choice• Therefore: attractive environments – liveable cities
Growth factors
Engines of the economy: Metropolitan units• Economy of scale - diversity• Best equipped with the infrastructure of the knowledge society• Over average share of well educated persons• Good links to the global economy: airports, internet backbone structure• Home bases, clusters• Attractive and liveable cities (Richard Florida)
Challenges • Position on international ranking lists threatened• Revitalisation of the Danish-Swedish integration project• New cooperation in the Copenhagen/Malmö - Hamburg axis• Berlin, Warsaw• Copenhagen Airport• The European high speed railroad network• Sustainability (CO2)• The cluster concept: further opportunities
The black cloudGlobal crisesDenmark:
• Share of the international competitive part of the economy• Low growth in productivity• Entrepreneurship problems• GDP-growth 2010-2025: European bottom (OECD 2010)• The demographic problem• Youth unemployment
The South Scandinavian Missing Links
Distance between Sealand and the Europeancontinent indicated as time
Source:The European
Round Table ofIndustrialists
1989
1997/1998
2000
2020
The South Scandinavian Links
Distance between Sealand and the Europeancontinent indicated as kilometres
Vehicles !!
Vehicles per year
0
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000
10000000
12000000
14000000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Ferries and bridges
Oresund Great Belt Femern Belt
Great Belt (1997/1998)
Domestic air traffic reduced with 33 %Railroad traffic boostedDanish logistics changeDay-tourism: increaseFerry towns loose activity – but compensation
Crosspoint: enforcementCentrality: metropolitan competitionIntegration - economy of scale New mass = new specialisation
Öresund (2000)
A new metropolitan region:
Pre-bridge
Post-bridge
What we know!
Infrastructural investments• Fixed link. Price: 4,5 billion Euros• Direct + indirect jobs 30.000-60.000 man years• Denmark: railroad electrification and renewal (double track) Copenhagen to tunnel
Minus: Storstrømmen• Germany: Motorway from German network (Heiligenhafen West) to tunnel
Minus: Fehmarnsund• Railroad: Lübeck – Tunnel. Ready 2027
Minus : Fehmarnsund
Travel time• Copenhagen – Hamburg: from 4½ to 3 hours = 33 % improvement• Rødby – Puttgarten: from 60 to 10 minutes = 500 % improvement
Fehmarnbelt Link: Status 2011
Danish tunnel: expectations: Planned, financed, built and operated by Femern A/S (Sund & Bælt)• Economy• Planning• Aproval• Construction 2014-2020• Operation after 2020
Expected technicalities
• Immersed tunnel under seabed• Lenght: 17,6 km. • 79 elementer:
Lenght: 217 m.Width: 42 m.Hight: 9 m.Weight: 73.500 tons
• Infrastructure, logistics and traffic
• The role of the cities in a
global/regional perspective
• Cross border labour market
• Cross border mobility
• Business clusters
• The scientific world: Centres, networks, development opportunities
• The potential effects of the fixed link
on real estate prices
• The cultural sector
• Values and attitudes, knowledge about
”the other side”
Research project
Cross border labour marketIncentives for mobility come from differences across regions!
Barriers for mobility:• Geographical distance, land-sea border• Administrative barriers, recognition of degrees and qualifications• Language, cultural and mental differences• Lack of information
Advantage of labour market integration:• Easier handling of market fluctuations• Better matching of qualifications• Larger supply of labour force• More opportunities for the job-seekers• Knowledge transfer
Ways to remove barriers:• Solution strategies (rules harmonization)• Information and advice
Recommendations:Cross border interaction/mobility incentives • Promotion of language training• Lobby for recognition and approval of qualifications and certificates• Consulting activity upgrade. Example: Femarnbelt Büro. Model: Grænse-Grenze • The information challenge: Dramatic upgrade of activity.
Example: Femern Belt Direct• People to people programmes: schools, culture, partnerships • Organisation to organisation programmes: exchange, learning, mutual programmes• Barrier analysis (Syddansk Universitet, Universität Kiel 2006) to be
updated and renewed• INTERREG policy advancement• Establishment of political initiated structures: organising capacity• Toll on fixed link: Lobby for very low fees for frequent travelers• Cross-border cluster policy and engagement.
Model: Øresund Science Region
A ”real” border region = new economy of scale advantages!
Fehmarnbelt neighbouring regionsSummary: potential regional change post fixed link
Lolland-FalsterNorth-east Schleswig-Holstein
The Copenhagen-Hamburg corridor
Minus - lose employment when:• Ferries terminate
• Tunnelbuilding finishes
Plus:• Construction period employment
• Construction period: increasing interaction and cooperation• Real border region
• Potential mobilisation effects: demand for national active• Increase in real estate values
• TGV-train: dramatic increase in real estate values – hot spots• Increasing competitiveness in the CPH-HAM corridor
• Advantage for centres located in the corridor (lift in status) • New localization pattern: tourism, clusters
Corridor competitiveness boost
• Economic power
• Center for:FinanceCulture, entertainmentServices, commerceKnowledgeCreativity
• NodeTransportCommunication
• Size, for example measured as:PopulationIncomeProductInteractionAccessibility
• Quality
Metropoles
Copenhagen/Öresund-cityHamburg
LübeckKielRostock
New dynamics:• Crosspoint location enforcement• European high speed railroad system• International metropolitan competition• Metropolitan cooperation: Hamburg-Öresund City
clusters, research, culture
The large centresSummary: potential regional changePost fixed link
Infrastructure: Growth factors
• Accessibility• Cross point localisation• Centrality
HinterlandGeneral competition between cities and regions
• Synergy – advantage of scaleBorder crossing integrationAccessibility to specialisations on ”the other side”Utilisation of resources in one system
• New mass: further specialisation• Public relations• Optimism
Strategic goal:• New North European powerhouse based on new infrastructure and new internal networks
Fehmarnbelt region survey1000 persons age 18-20 years
Topics covered:• Values and attitudes in general• Attitudes towards the labor market• The future society and politics• Environmental issues• Housing and culture• Interactions between the countries • Consequences of the fixed Fehmern Belt Link
Findings:
• No differences between the youths in the three countries with respect to:General values: post-materialistic value profilesAttitudes towards the labor market, housing, culture and politics
• The dividing line with respect to these issues runs between the sexes and not between countries
• Difference in the environmental perspective: Swedish youths are for market solutions
German youths would prefer laws and regulationsDanish youths mean that this issue is
characterized by unnecessary alarms
• Asymmetry in the knowledge of the respective neighbor countries:Danish and Swedish youth knows more about Germany
than the other way aroundGerman youth have some knowledge about CopenhagenSwedish youth have good knowledge about CopenhagenDanish and Swedish youth knows very little about Hamburg
Do you want to:Work Live Study
In Denmark?German youth Yes Yes YesSwedish youth Yes Yes Yes
In Germany?Danish youth Yes No NoSwedish youth Yes 50/50 50/50
In Sweden?Danish youth Yes No NoGerman youth Yes Yes Yes
Recommendations• Policy for updating the knowledge Danes, Germans and Swedes have about each other• Especially Danish and Swedish knowledge about Northern Germany
is low• Marketing activities must be set in motion!
General recommendation• Take action to achieve a bi-national institution with links to the large centres: university unit