Promoting Renewable Energy in Maharashtra Department of Energy Science and Engineering IIT Bombay Presentation to Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission, November 10, 2009
Promoting Renewable Energy in Maharashtra
Department of Energy Science and Engineering
IIT Bombay
Presentation to Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission, November 10, 2009
India-Renewable Installed Capacity trend
0
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10000
12000
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Year
Inst
alle
d C
apac
ity
India-Renewable Share in Power
Renewable installed capacity
Renewable generationNuclear generation
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Ye a r
Shar
e of
Ren
ewab
ales
(%) Renewable Installed
Capacity
Renewable Generation
Nuclear Generation
Renewable Energy (2008) Installed Capacity
India MaharashtraWind Power 9.66 GW 1.95 GW
Small Hydro 2.0 GW 0.2 GW
Biomass Power 8.0 GW 0.35 GW
Solar PV (grid) 3 MW 0
Geothermal Power 0 0
Solar Thermal Power (CSP) 0 0
Total renewable power 13 GW 2.5 GW
Solar Water heater 1.7 GW (th) (2.4 million m2) Not known
Source: REN21 Renewables Global Status Report-2009 Update
India Renewable installed capacity and generation
Installed Capacity*(MW)
Estimated Capacity factor
Estimated Generation (GWh)
Wind 7845 14% 9621
Biomass Power 606 70% 3185
Biomass Gasifier 86 60% 527
BagasseCogeneration
720 60% 3784
Small Hydro 2046 40% 7169
Waste to Energy 55 50% 241
Solar PV 2.74 20% 5
Total 11360 25% 24380
*as on Jan 1, 2008
Maharashtra Renewable installed capacity and generation
Installed Capacity(MW)
Estimated Capacity factor
Estimated Generation (GWh)
Wind 1948 14% 2389
Biomass Power 95 70% 582
BagasseCogeneration
262 60% 1377
Small Hydro 211 40% 924
Waste to Energy 6.1 50% 37.4
Solar PV - 20% -
Total 2522 25% 5310
*in 2009
Solar resource Area 26.8 km x
26.8 km Nagpur district
Solar insolation 1800 kWh/m2/year
20% capacity factor, plant efficiency 20%
150000 MU annual generation
Renewable Energy Issues Energy Security Energy Access Local and Global Emissions Marginal to Mainstream Incentives for Investors/ Technology Developers Impact on cost of supply to consumers Long term – capability development Employment potential Level playing field between technologies
Renewable Energy Policies
Capital Subsidy Tax Benefits (accelerated depreciation) Preferential Tariffs (feed-in) – technology
differentiated, performance based incentives Renewable Portfolio Standards Renewable Energy Certificates
Power Generation Options
Power Generation
Centralised Grid Connected
Cogeneration/Trigeneration
Decentralised Distributed Generation
Isolated
Demand Side Management (Solar Water Heater, Passive
Solar)
Renewable Energy Certificates#1 Does it provide “stable” signals to investors?#2 Does it promote renewable energy in the state?#3 How do we differentiate between different
technologies ? Do we have multiplication factors based on technology type/ status?
#4 How do we prevent gaming? Can we ensure validation? Monitoring and verification?
#5 Can we extend to smaller grid connected systems? (e.g BIPV)
#6 Solar Water Heaters as “Deemed Generation”?
Variability in REC price (Australia)
Source: http://www.greenenergytrading.com.au/how-are-recs-priced.html
50 p/kWh
250 p/kWh
#1
Variability in REC price (Sweden)
Source:InfralineEnergy Report on REC - October 2009
90 p/kWh
150 p/kWh
#1
Variability of ROCs in UK
300 p/kWh
400 p/kWh
#1
Source: http://www.e-roc.co.uk/trackrecord.htm
Sample REC ratesUK AUSTRALIA SWEDEN ITALY
Price Range of REC($/MWh)Rs/kWh
63-862.9 – 4.0
11 – 490.5 – 2.3
14.6 – 36.40.7 – 1.7
123 – 1955.7 – 9.0
Multiplication Factor Based on Technology
YES YES NA YES
Starting year 2002 2001 2003 2001
Penalty/Buyout $/MWh 65 27 - -
+Instantaneous values
#1
Source: http://www.e-roc.co.uk/trackrecord.htmInfralineEnergy Report on REC - October 2009http://www.greenenergytrading.com.au/how-are-recs-priced.htmlRenewable Energy Country Profiles, Report – February 2008.
Multiplication Factor #3
Source: Renewable Energy Country Profiles, Report – February 2008.The UK Renewable Energy Strategy July 2009
Available REC’s in Australia in 2009 for Trade
Source: https://www.rec-registry.gov.au/getSearchPublicRecHoldings.shtml
Solar (Water Heater +PV)
62%
Landfill Gas 5%
Others 2%
Wind26%
Bagasse + Black Liquor
4%
Food Waste + Wood Waste
1%
Total available 10 million RECs
#5,6
Framework for Potential Estimation of Solar Water Heating Systems in a Country
Country details(Area, Average Weather Data)
Locations where weather data available
Locations where weather data unavailable
Selection of base city
Methodology for potential estimation for a target area
Weather data
End use details for each sub-class
Identification of sectors and classification within each sector
Potential of SWHS in base city
Potential of SWHS in different location
Identification of variables for a different location
Weather data
End use detailsSpatial
Interpolation
Potential of SWHS in nearby area where weather data is not available location
Aggregation for all the locations
Potential of SWHS in the country• Technical potential• Electricity savings
#6
Diffusion of SWH
0
50
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1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
Year
Sola
r W
ater
Hea
ting
Cap
acity
(col
lect
or a
rea
in m
illio
n sq
. m.).
.
Actual installed (million sq. m.)Potential 140 million sq. m.Potential 60 million sq. m.Potential 200 million sq. m.Extrapolated Potential (million sq.m.)
Po te n tial = 60 m illio n m2
Po te n tial = 140 m illio n m2
Po te n tial = 200 m illion m2
Estimated Potential in 2092 = 199 mill ion m2
#6
Target areaWeather data, area details
Identification and Classification of different end uses by sector (i)
Residential (1)Hospital (2) Nursing
Homes (3)Hotels (4)
Others (5)
POTENTIAL OF SWHS IN TARGET AREATechnical Potential (m2 of collector area)
Economic Potential (m2 of collector area) Market Potential (m2 of collector area) Energy Savings Potential (kWh/year) Load Shaving Potential (kWh/ hour for a monthly average day)
* Factors affecting the adoption/sizing of solar water heating systems
Sub-class (i, j)
Classification based on factors* (j)
Single end use point
Potential
Base load for heating
Electricity/ fuel savings
Economic viability
Price of electricity
Investment for SWHS
Technical Potential
SWHS capacity
Constraint: roof area availability
Capacity of SWHS
(Collector area)
TargetAuxiliary heating
Single end use point
Micro simulation using TRNSYS
Hot water usage pattern
Weather data
SIMULATION
Auxiliary heating requirement
No. of end use points
Technical Potential
Economic Potential
Economic Constraint
Market Potential
Constraint: market acceptance
Potential for end use sector (i = 1) Potential for i = 2
Potential for i = 3
Potential for i = 4
Potential for i = 5
Model for Potential Estimation of Target Area#6
Load Curve Representing Energy Requirement for Water Heating
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700
800
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1000
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24Hour of day
Ener
gy C
onsu
mpt
ion
(MW
)
Typical day of January
Typical day of M ay
Total Consumption =760 MWh/day
Total Consumption = 390 MWh/day
53%
Electricity Consumption for water heating of Pune
Total Consumption =14300 MWh/day
Total Consumption = 13900 MWh/day
Total Electricity Consumption of Pune
#6
California enjoys 50% more sunshine But Germany installed 10 time solar than California
Source: FiT for America
RECs (California) Vs FiT (Germany) Comparison
Feed in tariffs Vs REC’s
Price Variability
Incentive to Investor
Market Driven Trade across states
Comments
Feed in Tariff Low High No Exchange Possible
Within State development Differentiation between technologies
Renewable Energy Certificate
High Medium (Uncertain)
High High Gamingposible
Mainstreaming of renewables
#1 Technology Development and Research challenge -Cost Reduction challenge
#2 System Integration/ System Planning challenge – Need for better methods for potential estimation, Impact on rest of grid
#3 Sustainability- Land, Water, Materials, Emissions
Diffusion Curves for wind energy
Year Projection by MNRE Projection by diffusion curve
Values in the uncertainty limit of 5%
Lower limit Higher limit
2007 7000 8700 2000 24800
2012 17500 23000 5800 39600
2022 40000 42900 27400 44800
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Year
Inst
all
ed C
apa
city
(M
W)
Actual InstallationDiffusion curve Upper limit of uncertainityLower limit of uncertainityForecast Values by MNRE
Potential = 45000MW
a1
a2
a
am
)( PLPdtdP −α
BtAeLP −+
=1
#2
Wind Diffusion #2
Source Installed capacity (MW)
Annual Energy generated(MU)
Annual average capacity
factor (%)
Coal 2970 21230 81.6Gas 424 1945 52.4
Hydro 2187 6290 32.8
Firm central share# 2825 17785 71.9Wind (state + private) 3856 5270 18.6
Other renewables (solar PV, biomass and Bagasse based
cogeneration)
556 1220 25.1
Independent power projects (coal, lignite, diesel or gas
based)
1180 6360 61.5
Assistance from other regional grids
519 2280 50.1
Total 14517 63370 49.8
Tamil Nadu – Grid Details#2
TN – Installed wind power and wind energy generated
#2
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Hours
Pow
er g
ener
ated
in M
W January
June
September
Mean value
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JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Months
Win
d en
ergy
gen
erat
ed (M
U)
Hourly variation of wind power
Monthly variation of wind energy generated
#2
Impacts on LDC #2
Summing up Long term – capability development, employment
potential for Maharashtra Level playing field between technologies – New
technologies, cofiring, hybrids, technologies at different stages of development
Local and Global Emissions Sustainability – Area, materials, water Marginal to Mainstream – System integration and
planning issues, need for new methodologies Policies to foster cost effective renewable for future
Rangan Banerjee ([email protected]) Suryanarayana Doolla ([email protected]) Anuradda Ganesh ([email protected])
Thank you
References Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE), Annual Reports,
2001-2009 Pillai and Banerjee, Solar Energy, 81, pp. 162-172, 2006. Pillai and Banerjee, Energy, 34, pp. 970-980, 2009. George and Banerjee, Energy Policy, 37, pp. 3693-3700, 2009. Mohit Goyal and Rakesh Jha, Renewable and Sustainable Energy
Reviews 13 (2009) 1395–1405 Anoop Singh, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 13 (2009)
643–652 W. H. Rickerson, J. L. Sawin, R. C. Grace, The Electrical Journal, Vol.
20, Issue 4, May 2007 InfralineEnergy Report on REC - October 2009 FiT for America – A Report by Greener Dawn Corporation, USA,
September 2009. D Fouquet, T. B. Johansson, Energy Policy 36 (2008). Renewable Energy Country Profiles, Report – February 2008.
References The UK Renewable Energy Strategy July 2009 Summary maps on http://dsireusa.org “National Action Plan on Climate Change”, GOI, 2009 Renewable Energy Global Status Report, 2009 Update, REN21 Draft discussion paper on “Development of Renewable Energy Framework
For Maharashtra for New control period (FY2010-11 to FY 2014-15)” ABPS Infra, October 2009 .
http://www.greenenergytrading.com.au/how-are-recs-priced.html http://www.renewableenergyfocus.com/view/4914/australian-renewable-
energy-crisis-as-rec-price-dives/ 8-November 2009 http://www.mercatoelettrico.org/En/Default.aspx
http://www.e-roc.co.uk/trackrecord.htm http://www.powercapital.eu/PowerCMS/Publications/Opinion/Banding---
Green-Certificates--Renewable-changes-in.aspx https://www.rec-registry.gov.au/getSearchPublicRecHoldings.shtml