Promoting institutional differentiation with scenario planning: the case of Paraguay - Gerrit de Jager

the case of Paraguay

Marginson (2008): • “the global research university is the leading idea”

Thrift (2012): • “What mix of higher-education institutions do we want?”

• “What can be done to enhance the status of non-academic

tertiary education?”

Martínez Acosta (2011)• “La Universidad Nacional de Caaguazú será una universidad de

investigación”

changes in the external environment:• resources

• regulation

changes in the paradigm of the university• research orientation

• professional profile

to make sense of developments

to enhance the anticipatory capacity of the

university

and last but not least:

to organize continuous reflection within the

organization on how to navigate the

institutional environment

Germany‟s Excellence Initiative injected

$2.3-billion into some 40 universities

but failed to create a more diverse higher-

education sector and produced few lasting

changes at universities (WZBrief Bildung,

June 2012)

“academic autonomy acts as a barrier”

exceptions: e.g. University of Karlsruhe

academic autonomy may give rise to

different outcomes:• fragmented research interests

• top-research groups

• high level professional schools

• regionally focussed universities, etcetera

not all of which will be sustainable

scenario planning will be enriched by the

discussion of paradigms

1. uncover the paradigms of the university

2. develop scenarios with dominant uncertainties

3. confront the paradigms with the scenarios

4. organize strategic conversations in a sustainable

way

landlocked country

6,5 million inhabitants

GDP $ 23,9 million

primary completion 94%

secondary enrollment 67%

220.000 university

students, of which 73% in

private – mainly for profit –

unis

quality control ineffective

total spending per student:• public sector $ 2400/year

• private sector $ 800 / year

[sources World Bank 2011, CONACYT 2012]

Brazil

Bolivia

1. communication strategy2. selection of scenario team3. development paradigms by scenario team

a. interviews of stakeholders

b. websurvey of university leaders

c. feed back from selected university leaders

4. development dominant uncertainties and future scenarios by scenario team

5. creation of scenario „stories‟

6. confrontation paradigms with scenario stories

7. development of strategic options for each

paradigm

8. discussion of strategic options with groups of

university leaders

9. informal leadership of paradigm groups comes

into existence

10. development of shared strategic agendas

all unis aim for default

status: global research

uni

lack of transparency

each tub on its own

bottom

limited interest in

cooperation with

business and industry

differentiation of uni

profiles has started

development of joint

program of indicators

groups of unis

cooperate in various

fields

joint project to develop

links with stake holders

political upheavals (general elections)

formation of a group of „innovating

universities‟

sustainment the strategic discourse

development of human resources

effective communication with general

public

more background information• paper “Promoting Institutional Differentiation with

Scenario Planning. The case of Paraguay”

• website: “innovatinguniversities.nl”

• mail: [email protected]