Projecting the Cost‐Effectiveness of Universal Access to Modern Contraceptives in Uganda Joseph B. Babigumira, MBChB, MS, PhD Pharmaceutical Outcomes Research and Policy Program School of Pharmacy University of Washington Fifth Annual Research Conference on Population, Reproductive Health, and Economic Development January 19 – 21, 2011 Marseilles, France 1
25
Embed
Projecting the Cost-Effectiveness of Universal Access to ...
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
Projecting the Cost‐Effectiveness of Universal Access to Modern Contraceptives in Uganda
Joseph B. Babigumira, MBChB, MS, PhDPharmaceutical Outcomes Research and Policy Program
School of Pharmacy
University of Washington
Fifth Annual Research Conference on Population, Reproductive
Health, and Economic Development
January 19 –
21, 2011
Marseilles, France
1
Acknowledgement
•
Funding from the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation and Institute of
International Education (IIE) Dissertation Fellowship in Population,
Reproductive Health, and Economic Development
2
Summary
1.
Introduction
2.
Methods
3.
Results
4.
Discussion
5.
Conclusion
3
4
•
Average 6.7
births (annual
population growth rate: 3.2%)
•
Only 31%
have access to modern
effective contraception
•
Up to 45%
of births in 2006 were
unplanned
•
Have more children (6.7) than
desired (5.1)
•
Unintended pregnancies due to
lack of contraceptive use (88%)
and contraceptive failure (12%)
Introduction
Women in Uganda
•
Contraception may reduce fertility,
enables family planning, improves
socioeconomic conditions.
•
Given potential benefits, policy makers
should ensure access, but access remains
poor.
•
With a total per capita health
expenditure US$24, Uganda’s
government‐run healthcare system must
prioritize.
•
Is universal access to modern
contraception a comparatively efficient
use of scarce resources and should policy
makers take steps to increase access?
5
Introduction
Contraception in Uganda
Comparators
The study compared two contraceptive use scenarios:
1.
The Current Contraceptive Program
(CCP) in which contraceptive coverage
would remain at the status quo.
2.
A New Contraceptive Program (NCP)
that
would provide universal access to modern
contraception in Uganda.
6
Methods Overview•
A Markov model based on states of sexual activity, contraceptive
use and
pregnancy was developed to compare the New Contraceptive Program
(NCP) to
the Current Contraceptive Program (CCP).
•
The model followed a hypothetical cohort of 15‐year old girls over a lifetime
horizon.
•
The analysis was performed from both the societal perspective which included all
costs and governmental perspective which included only the direct medical costs
incurred by the Ministry of Health.
•
Data were obtained from the Uganda National Demographic and Health Survey
and from published and unpublished sources.
•
The main outcomes of the analysis were cost per life‐year (LY) gained, cost per
disability‐adjusted life‐year (DALY) averted, cost per pregnancy averted, and cost
per unit of fertility reduction.
•
The NCP was considered cost‐effective if the incremental cost‐effectiveness ratio
(ICER) was less than the 3 times the Uganda’s GDP per capita.
7
Markov Modeling
•
Markov modeling is an extension of decision analytic modeling.
•
Markov models are used to simulate chronic disease processes in which events
occur multiple times. In this case, we adapt Markov modeling to
the reproductive
experience of women in Uganda.
•
The disease is divided into mutually exclusive health states and
“allowed”
transitions between states are defined.
•
Transition probabilities are used to estimate the rate of movement between
health states every cycle.
•
The model is run for multiple cycles over the time horizon of the analysis, usually
until all patients end in a “terminal state”
(usually “death”—an “absorbing state”).8
Markov Model
9
Age‐Specific Transition Probabilities (All data from 2006 Uganda Demographic and Health Survey)
All states to Dead 0.002 0.003 0.006 0.009 0.012 0.011 0.011
NSA
Not Sexually ActiveINC
Intentional Non‐ContraceptionUNC
Unintentional Non‐Contraception
10
MOC
Modern ContraceptionTRC
Traditional ContraceptionPRE
Pregnant
Other Transition ProbabilitiesProbability Base Case Range Reference
MOC – PRE 0.03 0.02 – 0.03 Trussell (2009)
TRC – PRE 0.20 0.16 – 0.24 Trussell (2009)
MOC – INC 0.25 0.20 – 0.29 Blanc et al. (2009)
MOC – UNC 0.34 0.27 – 0.41 Blanc et al. (2009)
TRC – INC 0.26 0.21 – 0.31 Blanc et al. (2009)
TRC – UNC 0.36 0.27 – 0.41 Blanc et al. (2009)
PRE – NSAϕ 0.73 0.58 – 0.88 2006 UDHS
PRE – INC 0.03 0.02 – 0.04 2006 UDHS
PRE – UNC 0.06 0.05 – 0.08 2006 UDHS
PRE – MOC 0.04 0.03 – 0.05 2006 UDHS
PRE – TRC 0.01 0.01 – 0.02 2006 UDHS
PRE – Deadψ 0.0034 0.0028 –
0.0041 2006 UDHSϕAlso probability of live birth. Calculated by subtracting ectopic pregnancies, induced abortions, miscarriages and still births ψMaternal mortality
11
Other Parameters
Parameter Base Case Range ReferencePregnancy ComplicationsMiscarriage 0.049 0.039 – 0.059 Casterline (1989)Ectopic pregnancy 0.014 0.011 – 0.017 Liskin (1992)Abortion 0.190 0.152 – 0.059 Singh et al. (2005)Still birth 0.017 0.014 – 0.020 Statnton et al. (2006)MortalityNeonatal mortality 0.021 0.017 – 0.025 2006 UDHSInfant mortality 0.055 0.044 – 0.067 2006 UDHSChild mortality 0.049 0.080 – 0.120 2006 UDHSLife expectancy at 2.5 years 51.7 ‐‐ WHO Life TablesDALYs lostMaternal conditions 0.272 0.218 – 0.327 WHO
12
Costs
Cost Base Case($US)
Range($US)
Reference
Contraception (MOH) 25.5 12.7 – 38.2 Weissman et al. (1999); Levin et al. (2003)
Contraception (Societal) 39.0 19.5 – 58.5 Weissman et al. (1999); Levin et al. (2003)
Pregnancy (MOH) 79.4 40.1 –
120.4 Weissman et al. (1999); Levin et al. (2003)
Pregnancy (Societal) 142.2 71.1 –
213.4 Multiple*
Annual productivity loss 354.2 ‐‐ CIA World Fact Book
*Includes Weissman et al (1999); Levin et al (2003); CIA World Fact Book and Primary Data
13
Results: Mean Costs and OutcomesCurrent ContraceptiveProgram