Project Level Traffic Estimate - NCDOT Forecasts/BR-001… · Project Level Traffic Estimate STIP Project BR-0013 NC 82 (Godwin-Falcon Road) ... available AADT from 2013 to 2016,

Project Level Traffic Estimate

STIP Project BR-0013

NC 82 (Godwin-Falcon Road)

Bridge No. 250019 Replacement over I-95

Cumberland County

WBS # 67013.1.1

May 30, 2018

Prepared By: HNTB North Carolina, P.C.

NCDOT Transportation Planning Division

NOTTO

SCALE

N

COUNTY: Cumberland DIVISION: 6

TIP: BR-0013 WBS: 67013.1.1

DATE: May 2018

PREPARED BY: HNTB North Carolina, PC

L E G E N D### No. of Vehicles Per

Day (VPD) in 100s

1- Less than 50 VPD

X

( d, t )PM

DK

K

PM

D

( d, t )

Design Hour Factor (%)

PM Peak Period

Peak Hour Directional Split (%)

Indicates Direction of D

Duals, TT-STs (%)

Movement Prohibited

2018/2040BASE/FUTURE YEAR

NO-BUILD/BUILD

LOCATION: NC 82 & I-95 Interchange

AVERAGE ANNUAL DAILY TRAFFIC

= Study Area Intersection IDX

PROJECT: Bridge Replacement

2018 BASE YEAR NO-BUILD/BUILD

2040 FUTURE YEAR NO-BUILD/BUILD

8

3

95

95

Gordon Williams Road

(SR 1860)

1-

1-

4

1-1

7

NOTTO

SCALE

N

Godwin-Falcon Road

82

Godwin-Falcon Road

82

69

6

24

78

31

1

23

1-1

31/2

1117

70

9

PM

11 65

(5,2)

PM

55

8

(11,1

)


(SR 1860)

PM

70 15

(4,3)

PM

8 5

5

(4,1

1)

PM

8 5

5

(4,1

1)

PM

11 65

(5,2)

95

95

Godwin-Falcon Road

82

Godwin-Falcon Road

82

1-3 13PM

11 65

(5,2)

13 PM

70 15

(4,3)

49

65

05

PM

8 5

5

(4,1

1)

PM

8 5

5

(4,1

1)

1PM

55 8

(11,1)

NCDOT STIP PROJECT BR-0013 NC 82 (Godwin-Falcon Road) Bridge Replacement

Traffic Estimate Technical Memorandum

May 2018 1

1. PROJECT BACKGROUND

1.1. Forecast Request Information

The traffic forecast for this project was requested by Tierre Peterson of the North Carolina Department of Transportation (NCDOT) Structures Management Unit in May 2018 as part of the Traffic Forecasting Limited Services Agreement (7000016863) to be performed by HNTB North Carolina, P.C. NCDOT State Transportation Improvement Program (STIP) Project BR-0013 is located at the NC 82 (Godwin-Falcon Road) and I-95 interchange (Exit 65). This interchange will also be included in the larger traffic forecast for I-5986 that is currently being developed by HNTB and is expected to be delivered by October 19, 2018.

1.2. Project Description

NCDOT STIP Project BR-0013 includes the bridge replacement of bridge number 250019 on NC 82 (Godwin-Falcon Road) over I-95 in Cumberland County. The traffic forecast study area for BR-0013 includes a total of 3 intersections, including the I-95 and NC 82 (Godwin-Falcon Road) interchange and the Gordon Williams Road (SR 1860) intersection with the I-95 northbound off-ramp. Figure 1 shows the project study area for this forecast. STIP Project BR-0013 is not currently programmed in the current 2018 – 2027 STIP, approved by the NCDOT Board of Transportation on August 3, 2017 and most recently revised May 1, 2018. This traffic forecast includes two scenarios: Base Year No-Build (BYNB) and Future Year Build (FYB). Since this is a bridge replacement project, no specific design improvements would divert traffic volumes in the study area. Therefore, the traffic volumes are not expected to change between No-Build and Build scenarios. The BYNB and FYB forecasts can be used for both No-Build and Build scenarios.

2. SOURCES OF INFORMATION AND DATA

2.1. Travel Demand Model

The 2040 Fayetteville Area Metropolitan Planning Organization (FAMPO) Travel Demand Model (TransCAD 5, Build 2110, March 21, 2018 version) was used in the development of this traffic forecast. The model has a Base Year of 2010 and a Future Year of 2040.

2.2. Historic AADT Data

HNTB reviewed all available NCDOT Traffic Survey Unit AADT data from 1996 to 2016 (most recent published information). Linear growth trend line estimates were developed for relevant roadway segments in the study area using the NCDOT AADT historical data. Table 1 details available 1996 to 2016 historic AADT data for relevant roadway segments within the study area. Table 2 displays available AADT from 2013 to 2016, 10-year and 20-year linear annual growth rates based on historic AADT linear regression lines, and 2018 AADT that is estimated based on the 10-year and 20-year historic linear annual growth rates. Appendix A shows detailed linear regression graphs



May 2018 2

used to determine 2018 and 2040 AADT estimates based on 1996 to 2016 and 2006 to 2016 historical AADT data.

2.3. Field Traffic Data Collection

The traffic count data for this forecast was collected by HNTB’s subconsultant, Quality Counts LLC, in April and May 2018 when Cumberland County schools were in session. 13-hour turning movement counts (TMCs) were collected. Table 3 provides a summary of the field traffic data collection completed for this forecast. Detailed reports of the traffic counts can be found in Appendix B.

3. 2018 BASE YEAR NO-BUILD TRAFFIC ESTIMATE

The 2018 BYNB scenario includes an estimate of existing study area conditions. Field collected 2018 count data was primarily used to determine the 2018 BYNB estimate, followed by comparing count data with recent historical AADT, historical trend line estimates, extrapolating historical AADT volumes to 2018 using 10-year historic growth rates (2006 – 2016) and 20-year historic growth rates (1996 – 2016), and applying engineering judgment. Table 4 provides BYNB design factors and Table 5 provides the estimated AADT from the existing count data, projected 2018 AADT based on historical AADT, and the 2018 selected BYNB Estimate volumes. NCDOT adjustable intersection analysis buddy (IAB) results for traffic forecast study area intersections are included in Appendix C.

4. 2040 FUTURE YEAR BUILD TRAFFIC FORECAST

The 2040 FYB forecast assumes that there are no STIP projects programmed for funding in the general vicinity of the BR-0013 interchange that will impact traffic volumes. I-95 is assumed to be widened to an 8-lane facility because of STIP Project I-5986 being in place. The 2040 FYB forecast uses extrapolations of historic AADT data in the study area, 2040 model data, and comparisons/adjustments from the 2018 BYNB volumes as they applied to the historic and model information. Table 6 provides traffic forecast study area road network segments that are included in the travel demand model and comparable recent AADT information that provide validation for the use of the travel demand model in project traffic forecasting methodologies used in this memo. The FAMPO model uses a 2010 base year for model calibration. The 2040 FYB traffic forecast volumes were primarily developed by applying a selected growth rate to the 2018 BYNB volumes. An applied growth rate was determined for each roadway segment based on the 2010 to 2040 model growth rates, 10- and 20-year historic AADT growth rates, and engineering judgment. Table 7 shows the historic growth rates, model growth rates, and the applied growth rates used to develop the 2040 FYB traffic volumes. NCDOT adjustable IAB results for traffic forecast study area intersections are included in Appendix C.

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COUNTIES: Cumberland

DATE: May 2018

PROJECT:

PREPARED BY:HNTB North Carolina, P.C.

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Intersection ID numbers correspond to IntersectionID numbers summarized in the traffic forecast scope.



May 2018 4

Table 1 – Historic AADT Traffic Volumes

Roadway 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996

I-95 – South of NC 82 (Godwin-Falcon Road) 56,000 47,000 46,000 44,000 47,000 47,000 47,000 47,000 43,000 46,000 46,000 44,000 44,000 44,000 42,000 42,000 41,000 43,000 42,000 - 38,000

I-95 – North of NC 82 (Godwin-Falcon Road) 55,000 47,000 46,000 43,000 46,000 46,000 46,000 47,000 43,000 46,000 46,000 44,000 44,000 44,000 42,000 42,000 41,000 43,000 42,000 - 38,000

NC 82 (Godwin-Falcon Road) – West of I-95 Southbound Ramps 1,100 - 960 - 1,200 - 1,100 - 890 - 1,200 - 1,500 - 1,100 - 1,200 1,000 1,300 1,400 1,500

NC 82 (Godwin-Falcon Road) – East of I-95 Northbound Ramps 1,300 - 1,300 - 1,500 - 1,500 - 1,300 - 1,400 - 1,400 - 1,300 - 1,400 1,400 1,400 1,500 1,600

Source: NCDOT Traffic Survey Unit.



May 2018 5

Table 2 – Historic AADT Traffic Volumes and Growth Rates

Roadway

NCDOT Historic Traffic Count Data

Annual Growth Rate

2018 10-Year AADT

Estimate 3

2018 20-Year AADT

Estimate 3 2013 2014 2015 2016 10-Year 1 20-Year 2

I-95 – South of NC 82 (Godwin-Falcon Road) 44,000 46,000 47,000 56,000 1.11% 1.09% 50,500 50,300

I-95 – North of NC 82 (Godwin-Falcon Road) 43,000 46,000 47,000 55,000 0.98% 0.99% 49,600 49,600

NC 82 (Godwin-Falcon Road) – West of I-95 Southbound Ramps - 960 - 1,100 - 0.25% - 1.32% 1,100 1,000

NC 82 (Godwin-Falcon Road) – East of I-95 Northbound Ramps - 1,300 - 1,300 - 0.52% - 0.44% 1,300 1,300

Historic AADT Source: NCDOT Traffic Survey Unit 1 10-year annual growth rate derived from a linear regression projection of all available historic AADT from 2006 – 2016 2 20-year annual growth rate derived from a linear regression projection of all available historic AADT from 1996 – 2016 3 AADT estimates are projected using historic AADT linear regression lines. Values are rounded to the nearest 100.



May 2018 6

Table 3 – Field Traffic Data Collection

Location Count

Type Date(s)

Daily

Factor 1

ATR

Group

Seasonal

Factor

NC 82 (Godwin-Falcon Road) at I-95 Southbound Ramps 13-Hr TMC April 26, 2018 (Thursday) ** 1 0.95

NC 82 (Godwin-Falcon Road) at I-95 Northbound Ramps 13-Hr TMC April 26, 2018 (Thursday) ** 1 0.95

I-95 Northbound Off-Ramp at Gordon Williams Road (SR 1860) 13-Hr TMC May 1, 2018 (Tuesday) ** 1 0.97

TMC = Turning Movement Count 1 13-hour to 24-hour partial weekday adjustment factor (default values provided by Traffic Survey Group November 24, 2015)

** Combination of various 13-hour to 24-hour weekday adjustment factors were used:

0.8290 used for majority of movements (Traffic Survey Group default value for NC Routes)

0.8144 used for turns onto Gordon Williams Road (SR 1860) (Traffic Survey Group default value for SR/Local Routes)

0.7886 used for through movements coming from I-95 off-ramps (Traffic Survey Group default value for interstates)



May 2018 7

Table 4 – 2018 Base Year No-Build Design Factors

Roadway

D - Directional Distribution % K - Peak Hour Factor % Heavy Truck % (Dual, TTST)

Existing Count Selected

2018 Value


2018 Value

2016 AADT Shape File 1


2018 Value

TMC VSC TMC VSC TMC VSC

I-95 – South of NC 82 (Godwin-Falcon Road) 2 - - 55 SB - - 8 4,10 - - 4,11

I-95 – North of NC 82 (Godwin-Falcon Road) 2 - - 55 SB - - 8 4,12 - - 4,11

NC 82 (Godwin-Falcon Road) – West of I-95 74 WB - 70 WB 15 - 15 5,2 4,3 - 4,3

NC 82 (Godwin-Falcon Road) – I-95 to Gordon Williams Road (SR 1860) 3 65 EB - 65 EB 11 - 11 - 5,2 - 5,2

NC 82 (Godwin-Falcon Road) – East of Gordon Williams Road (SR 1860) 65 EB - 65 EB 11 - 11 4,2 5,2 - 5,2

Gordon Williams Road (SR 1860) – Southeast of I-95/NC 82 (Godwin-Falcon Road) Interchange 4 100 WB - 55 WB 4 - 8 - 11,0 - 11,1 1 2016 Traffic Data Segment Shapefile provided by the NCDOT Traffic Survey Group 2 VSC counts are currently being counted and processed on I-95 as part of STIP Project I-5986. BR-0013 2018 BYNB selected design factors and truck percentages on I-95 were determined by using engineering

judgement and knowledge of the general area. Design factors will be updated as needed once I-5986 traffic count data has been collected and processed. 3 NC 82 (Godwin-Falcon Road), from I-95 to Gordon Williams Road (SR 1860), is a roadway segment that includes the Gordon Williams Road (SR 1860) turning movements that connect directly to the I-95 northbound

off-ramp. 4 Gordon Williams Road (SR 1860) – the PM peak and AM peak hours included only 1 vehicle and 2 vehicles, respectively. Therefore, engineering judgement was used to determine the design factors.



May 2018 8

Table 5 – 2018 Base Year No-Build Selected AADT

Roadway NCDOT Historic AADT

2018 10-Year (2006 – 2016)

AADT Estimate 1

2018 20-Year (1996 – 2016)

AADT Estimate 1

2018 Project Specific Count Data AADT Estimate 2018 BYNB

Selected AADT 2013 2014 2015 2016 TMC VSC

I-95 – South of NC 82 (Godwin-Falcon Road) 2 44,000 46,000 47,000 56,000 50,500 50,300 - - 50,500

I-95 – North of NC 82 (Godwin-Falcon Road) 2 43,000 46,000 47,000 55,000 49,600 49,600 - - 49,600

NC 82 (Godwin-Falcon Road) – West of I-95 - 960 - 1,100 1,100 1,000 1,300 - 1,300

NC 82 (Godwin-Falcon Road) – I-95 to Gordon Williams Road (SR 1860) 3 - - - - - - 1,300 1,400

NC 82 (Godwin-Falcon Road) – East of Gordon Williams Road (SR 1860) - 1,300 - 1,300 1,300 1,300 1,300 - 1,300

Gordon Williams Road (SR 1860) – Southeast of I-95/NC 82 (Godwin-Falcon Road) Interchange - - - - - - <50 - 100

1 AADT estimates are projected using historic AADT linear regression lines (volumes rounded to the nearest 100). 2 VSC counts are currently being counted and processed on I-95 as part of STIP Project I-5986. BR-0013 2018 BYNB Selected AADT on I-95 was determined by considering 10-year historic AADT linear regression line estimates. 3 NC 82 (Godwin-Falcon Road), from I-95 to Gordon Williams Road (SR 1860), is a calculated traffic volume that includes the Gordon Williams Road (SR 1860) turning movements that connect directly to the I-95 northbound off-ramp.



May 2018 9

Table 6 – Model Validation

Roadway

Model Calibration

Forecast Traffic

Volume FYB Traffic Volumes

Model (2010) AADT (2010) 2018 BYNB Extrapolated

(2040) 1 Model (2040)

Forecast (2040)

I-95 – South of NC 82 (Godwin Falcon Road) 49,701 47,000 50,500 61,900 80,869 70,900

I-95 – North of NC 82 (Godwin Falcon Road) 46,970 46,000 49,600 59,600 72,527 69,600

NC 82 (Godwin Falcon Road) – West of I-95 1,448 1,100 1,300 1,000 4,826 3,100

NC 82 (Godwin Falcon Road) – East of I-95 1,844 1,500 1,300 1,200 4,129 2,300

Gordon Williams Road (SR 1860) – East of I-95 Northbound Off-Ramp - - 100 - - 100

1 10-year annual growth rates derived from linear regression projections of all available historic AADT from 2006 – 2016 were used to extrapolate 2040 AADT volumes. 2040

Extrapolated AADT volumes are rounded to the nearest 100.



May 2018 10

Table 7 – 2040 Future Year Build Selected AADT

Roadway

Reference Growth Rate Model Daily Traffic Volumes & Growth Rate Applied Growth Rate 3

2018 BYNB Selected

AADT

2040 FYB Selected AADT 10-Year

Historic 1 20-Year

Historic 1 2010 BYNB 2040 FYB Model AGR 2

I-95 – South of NC 82 (Godwin-Falcon Road) 4 1.11% 1.09% 49,701 80,869 1.64% 1.6% 50,500 70,900

I-95 – North of NC 82 (Godwin-Falcon Road) 4 0.98% 0.99% 46,970 72,527 1.46% 1.6% 49,600 69,600

NC 82 (Godwin-Falcon Road) – West of I-95 - 0.25% - 1.32% 1,448 4,826 4.09% 4.0% 1,300 3,100

NC 82 (Godwin-Falcon Road) – I-95 to Gordon Williams Road (SR 1860) 5 - - 1,844 4,129 2.72% 2.5% 1,400 2,400

NC 82 (Godwin-Falcon Road) – East of Gordon Williams Road (SR 1860) - 0.52% - 0.44% 1,844 4,129 2.72% 2.6% 1,300 2,300

Gordon Williams Road (SR 1860) – South of NC 82 (Godwin-Falcon Road) 6 - - - - - - 100 100

1 10- and 20-year annual growth rates derived from linear regression projections of all available historic AADT from 2006 to 2016 and 1996 to 2016, respectively. See Table 2. 2 CAGR (exponential) between FAMPO model 2010 BYNB and 2040 FYB model traffic volumes

3 Applied CAGR (exponential) value for 2040 FYB Traffic Forecast 4 I-95 – the average model growth rate of approximately 1.6% was used to calculate FYB Selected AADT. 5 NC 82 (Godwin-Falcon Road), from I-95 to Gordon Williams Road (SR 1860), is a calculated traffic volume that includes the Gordon Williams Road (SR 1860) turning movements that connect directly to the I-95 northbound

off-ramp. 6 The 2040 FYB forecast scenario assumes that Gordon Williams Road (SR 1860) will be re-routed from its existing connection to the I-95 northbound off-ramp to connect directly to NC 82 (Godwin-Falcon Road). This

change is displayed in the forecast diagrams.

Project Level Traffic Estimate - NCDOT Forecasts/BR-001… · Project Level Traffic Estimate STIP Project BR-0013 NC 82 (Godwin-Falcon Road) ... available AADT from 2013 to 2016,

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