Estimation: Dante’s 8 th circle…..
Dec 05, 2014
Estimation:Dante’s 8th circle…..
Johnnie FoxProject StrategistJohnnie FoxProject Strategist
husband • geek •
photographer •
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Recovering Developer
Business Analyst
Certified Scrum Master
Drupal/Custom Development/IOS/C#
$500 - $1,000,000 projects
Project Strategist
Purpose of Estimate
Foundation for Project PlanningSales ToolProject Planning
Estimating Sucks
Good estimates increase moraleGood estimates build reputationsThere is no pot of gold at the end of the
rainbow unless you put it there
Industry Performance
Software Estimation: Demystifying the Black Art – Steve McConnel
Equal Chance?
Projects are unfair
Cone of Uncertainty
Software Estimation: Demystifying the Black Art – Steve McConnel
Truism
The organization that most convincingly underestimates the project has the highest chance of being awarded the work.
Highly Structured
“High structure implies that the nature of the task defines its outputs, the possibility of users changing their minds about the desired outputs is practically nonexistent, and significant change management issues are not present.”
1Harvard Business School Press (2004-02-19). Harvard Business Essentials Managing Projects Large and Small: The Fundamental Skills for Delivering on Budget and on Time (Kindle Locations 220-223). Harvard Business Review Press. Kindle Edition.
Types of Projects
New siteSite supportMigration Site to siteNew features/existing site
Types of Estimates
Project SizingSales EstimateProject initiation estimateIn project estimationSupport estimates
Estimating Spreadsheet:
Goals
Re –usableConsistent formatAble to use in SOWCan be used by PM/SA on Project InceptionMargin Estimation
Concepts
DefensibleTo Dev Team To ClientTo Sales Team
PM Definition
A good estimate is an estimate that provides a clear enough view of the project reality to allow the project leadership to make good decisions about how to control the project to hit its targets..
McConnell, Steve (2009-11-30). Software Estimation: Demystifying the Black Art: Demystifying the Black Art (Best Practices (Microsoft)) (Kindle Locations 534-536). OReilly Media - A. Kindle Edition.
Estimation Process
Strategies to improve EstimatesPrice what you knowKnowing when its different?Ask someone who has done it before Examine prior projects
Caution:
In a study of 300 software projects, Michiel van Genuchten reported that developer estimates tended to contain an optimism factor of 20% to 30% (van Genuchten 1991). Although managers sometimes complain otherwise, developers don’t tend to sandbag.
theirMcConnell, Steve (2009-11-30). Software Estimation: Demystifying the Black Art: Demystifying the Black Art (Best Practices (Microsoft)) (Kindle Locations 1095-1096). OReilly Media - A. Kindle Edition
Promet Caution
Promet recourses tend not to estimate any related tasks to the item they are estimating (Theme, PM, Setup time)
Types of Time
Dev timeThemer TimeProject Management Quality AssuranceDevOps/Sysadmin
WBSModified Delphi Estimation method.Developed by Rand Corporation in
the 40'sFancy word for list - Work
Breakdown Structure (WBS)Make estimate separate and then
compare
• After lists are made members meet and compare lists.
• Everyone must participate. • If there is no conflict and you didn't get any
additions you are doing it wrong.
Translating Clients
Customers want features in their list Our job is to translate it into features the team
can complete
The Size of Time
Hour sizes 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, Beyond 16 hrs
You don’t know what the task isEasy target for “Shouldn’t this be Lower”
Percentage Factors
PM Time 20%QA Time 15%
Minimum Cost
Dev Ops 4 – 12 hoursTraining Kickoff meetings
Standard Blocks
Sprint 0DesignCore Drupal (list)Contrib modules
(list)SEO modulesSocial SharingCustom features
• Workflow
• Integrations
• Ecommerce
• 3rd party
• Themeing
• Desktop
• Responsive
Standard Blocks
IntegrationAMS (CIVI etc)SSOBilling/ecommerce
TrainingDev OpsProject ManagementQA
Next Steps
Re-use EstimatesStock assemblies?Factors of Scale/sizeGranularitySales use only toolEstimation among other PMsReal world feedback
Risks
Missed requirementsTechnical Debt Incorrect assumptionsInfrastructure (VPN, Server Access)Poor client conditions
Uninvolved/UnresponsiveContact not technically savvy
Effort per Estimate
Project Size