CIGARAETTES BRAND PREFERNCE OF CONSUMER ACCORDING TO A.I.C.O.L A Thesis submitted to the Department of Marketing Faculty of Management Sciences in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF BUSINESS ADMISTRATION (MBA,MARKETING) Supervised by: Muhammad Sajjada Shamim Ahmed Senior Lecturer Submitted By: NADEEM ABBAS ID: 1564
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CIGARAETTES BRAND PREFERNCE OF
CONSUMER ACCORDING TO
A.I.C.O.L
A Thesis submitted to the Department of Marketing
Faculty of
Management Sciences
in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of
INTRODUCTION & OVERVIEW-----------------------------------------------1.1 Background-------------------------------------------------------------------------1.2 Problem Statement----------------------------------------------------------------1.3 Scope of the research-------------------------------------------------------------1.4 Research objectives--------------------------------------------------------------1.5 Conclusion------------------------------------------------------------------------1.6 Limitations-------------------------------------------------------------------------
LITERATURE REVIEW----------------------------------------------------------
2.1 International work done---------------------------------------------------------
2.1.1 Tobacco use among Middle & High school students---------------------
2.1.2) Tobacco use in 1980 National Household Survey on Drug Abuse-----
2.2 Tobacco industry in Pakistan ---------------------------------------------------
2.2.1) Article by Syed M Aslam-----------------------------------------------------
2.2.2) Investigating socio-economic demographic determinants in Pindi.-----
2.2.3) Prevalence and factor association with current smoking among high
School adolescents in Karachi.----------------------------------------------
CHAPTER – 3
DATA ANALISIS, RESULTS/FININDINGS & DISCUSSIONS------------------
3.1) Data Analysis----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 3.2 Data gathering instruments--------------------------------------------------------------
3.3) Procedure followed to gather data------------------------------------------------------
3.4) Statement of Hypotheses------------------------------------------- ---------------------
This report is the first to measure the prevalence of current tobacco use among a nationally
representative sample of middle school students and the first to report the prevalence of current
bidi and kretek use among a nationally representative sample of middle and high school
students.
Although previous national surveys have shown that cigarette smoking rates among black high
school students have been increasing, black students still were smoking at much lower rates
than other high school students. However, the findings in this report indicate that current
cigarette smoking prevalence among middle school black students was similar to rates among
white and Hispanic students and that current cigar use prevalence among middle school black
students was significantly higher than among white students.
Future surveys should evaluate whether the rate of increase in smoking rates among black
students has accelerated and whether the difference in smoking rates between black and white
high school students are disappearing. In addition, more research is needed to determine
whether black youth are finding smoking appealing and socially acceptable.
Current use of novel tobacco products, such as bidis and kreteks, is an emerging public health
problem among U.S. youth. Cigarettes remain the most widely used tobacco product by youth;
however, recent trends underscore the importance of monitoring the rates at which youth adopt
other tobacco products. The social and cultural factors related to differing patterns of tobacco
product use across sex and racial/ethnic groups require additional study.
The 1999 NYTS estimates for high school students will be compared with those of the
Monitoring The Future (MTF) study and the Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS), the other
national school-based surveys. Comparison of NYTS estimates with those of other national
surveys must be interpreted with caution for several reasons.
First, YRBS and MTF were conducted during spring 1999, and NYTS was conducted during
September-October 1999, a different academic year. Within each grade, the fall school
population is approximately 6 months younger than the spring school population. This
difference can be expected to lead to higher estimates of ever smoking in the spring surveys
and may lead to higher estimates of current smoking.
Second, the tobacco industry increased the wholesale price of tobacco products during 1999,
but also provided substantial price discounts during the same period, making determination of
the precise effect of retail prices on smoking rates difficult. However, preliminary per capita
consumption estimates from the U.S. Department of Agriculture suggest cigarette consumption
has decreased in 1999, suggesting that the prevalence among youth also may have decreased.
Third, the NYTS is a single-topic survey (tobacco), and MTF and YRBS are multi-topic
surveys. The effect of the number of topics surveyed on the resulting estimates is unknown.
Finally, NYTS had a 90% school response rate, a higher reported school response rate than
YRBS and MTF. Some schools that participated in the NYTS may not participate in YRBS or
MTF.
The findings in this report are subject to at least two limitations. First, these data apply only to
youth who attended middle or high school and are not representative of all persons in this age
group. Few persons aged less than 16 years do not attend school and, in 1997, only 4% of 16-
year-olds and 6% of 17-year-olds who had not completed high school were not enrolled in a
high school program. The dropout rate for young adults aged 16-24 years varies greatly by
race/ethnicity (7.6%, white; 13.4%, black; and 25.3%, Hispanic). Second, "any current tobacco
use" might be underestimated in this report because it does not include a measure of "roll-your-
own" tobacco smoking.
To evaluate the potential impact of the expanding levels of tobacco prevention efforts
nationwide and in the individual states, surveillance of trends in tobacco use among youth must
be continued and expanded. YRBS has provided national and state-specific surveillance of
tobacco use among high school students since 1991. The NYTS and state-specific youth
tobacco surveys are extending this surveillance effort to middle school students and across a
wider range of evaluation variables, including knowledge and attitudes about tobacco, exposure
to environmental tobacco smoke, familiarity with pro-smoking and antismoking media
messages, and exposure to tobacco-use prevention curriculum in schools.
CDC has prepared "Best Practices" guidelines to help states determine funding priorities and to
plan and carry out effective comprehensive tobacco-use prevention and control programs. If
current patterns of smoking behavior persist, an estimated 5 million U.S. persons who were
aged less than or equal to 18 years in 1995 could die prematurely from smoking-related
illnesses.
Implementation of the "Best Practices" guidelines, along with nationwide prevention efforts,
enforcement of the proposed Food and Drug Administration rules, increases in the excise tax
on tobacco products, and increased availability of smoking cessation treatment options, could
dramatically reduce these projected deaths.
Editorial Note
The 1999 National Youth Tobacco Survey (NYTS) is the first national school-based survey to
provide information not only about tobacco use, but about related knowledge, beliefs, attitudes
and behaviors. It is also the first national survey to focus on all varieties of tobacco use among
youth and the first survey of middle school students.
As such, this survey will provide us with considerable new knowledge about the onset of the
nicotine epidemic and should serve to remind us not to forget about all forms of tobacco use.
We look forward to reading future reports on the 1999 survey and hope that future surveys will
be conducted to enable us to examine trends over time.
The prevalence of current cigarette use among high school students in Fall 1999 has decreased
substantially since Spring 1997. These comparisons are shown in Table 2 below.
TABLE 2</TD< TR>
1997 YRBS 1999 NYTS
Overall 36.4% (± 2.3) 28.4% (± 2.7)
Males 37.7% (± 2.7) 28.7% (± 2.8)
Females 34.7% (± 2.8) 28.2% (± 3.3)
Whites 39.7% (± 2.4) 32.8% (± 3.1)
Blacks 22.7% (± 3.8) 15.8% (± 3.8)
Hispanics 34.0% (± 2.7) 25.8% (± 4.7)
Current smokeless tobacco among male high school students declined from 15.8% (± 3.7) in
1997 to 11.6% (± 2.8) in 1999; however, this decline was not statistically significant (as the
95% confidence intervals overlap). The declines in cigarette use may be due to events that
occurred in the interim (e.g. price increases due to the Tobacco Settlement or state tax
increases) or to cohort differences. However, it's also possible that the differences in smoking
prevalence are at least partially attributable to differences in the methods used in these two
surveys (e.g., different content of survey questionnaires and response rates).
The National Youth Tobacco Survey (NYTS) appears to have employed very high quality
survey methods. Sampling, survey administration, response rates, and weighting and analysis
of the data appear to be very strong. The overall response rate of 84% boosts our confidence
that the results from this sample are generalizable to the national school population. (The
report, however, did not indicate whether private schools were included in the sample.) The
overall response rate and the school participation rate (90%) for this survey are remarkable
especially as compared to other national school-based surveys (e.g., the overall response rate
for the 1997 National Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS) was 69% and for the 1998
Monitoring the Future Survey (MTF) was less than 58%). Also remarkable is how quickly the
preliminary findings from this survey were released to the public. Perhaps, other national
surveys can be improved in these areas.
The 95% confidence interval means that there is a 95% likelihood that the actual value in the
population should be within that many percentage points of the observed sample value. For
example, 12.8 (± 2.0) for total tobacco use among middle school students (which appears at the
end of the first row of Table 1) can be interpreted as follows: there is a 95% likelihood that
from 10.8% (12.8 - 2.0) to 14.8% (12.8 + 2.0) of middle school students in the U.S. used some
form of tobacco in the 30 days preceding the survey.
2.2.2 Tobacco Use in the 1998 National Household Survey on Drug Abuse
The results of the 1998 National Household Survey on Drug Abuse (NHSDA) have been
released by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. The results for tobacco use
have been summarized below followed by a summary of the survey design.
Tobacco Use in the United States
An estimated 60 million Americans were current cigarette smokers in 1998. This represents a
smoking rate of 27.7 percent for the population age 12 and older. The rate decrease from 29.6
percent in 1997 is statistically significant.
Current smokers were more likely than nonsmokers to be heavy drinkers and illicit drug users.
Among current smokers, the rate of heavy alcohol use (five or more drinks on the same
occasion on five or more days in the past month) was 14.0 percent, the rate of
marijuana/hashish use was 13.6 percent, and the rate of current illicit drug use was 16.1
percent. Among nonsmokers, only 2.9 percent were heavy drinkers, 1.8 percent were
marijuana/hashish users, and 2.5 percent were illicit drug users.
An estimated 3.1 percent of the population were current users of smokeless tobacco in 1998.
The rate has remained steady since 1991.
An estimated 6.9 percent of the population were current users of cigars in 1998. This represents
a statistically significant increase from 1997, when the rate was 5.9 percent.
Age
Approximately 4.1 million youth age 12-17
were current smokers in 1998. The rate of
smoking among youth age 12-17 was 18.2
percent. The rate was 18.9 percent in 1994,
20.2 percent in 1995, 18.3 percent in 1996,
and 19.9 percent in 1997. There were no
statistically significant changes.
The current smoking rate among young adults
age 18-25 continues to follow an upward path
from 34.6 percent in 1994 to 35.3 percent in
1995, 38.3 percent in 1996, 40.6 percent in
1997, and 41.6 percent in 1998. The 1998 rate
is significantly higher than the 1994, 1995
and 1996 rates.
An estimated 5.6 percent of youths age 12-17, or 1.3 million, were current cigar users in 1998.
This rate compares to 5.0 percent in 1997; the difference is not statistically significant.
Race/Ethnicity
In 1998, current smoking rates were 29 percent among Blacks, 28 percent among Whites, 26
percent among Hispanics, and 24 percent among those of other race/ethnic groups.
Smokeless tobacco use was more prevalent among Whites (3.7 percent) than among Blacks
(2.0 percent) or Hispanics (0.8 percent).
Gender
Males had higher rates of smoking than females (29.7 percent vs. 25.7 percent). Among youths
age 12-17, the rates for males and females were similar (18.7 percent for males, 17.7 percent
for females). The rate for females age 12-17 years decreased significantly between 1997 and
1998, from 20.7 percent to 17.7 percent.
The rate of current smokeless tobacco use was significantly higher for men than for women in
1998 (5.9 percent vs. 0.5 percent). About 91 percent of smokeless tobacco users were men.
Similarly, males were more likely than females to use cigars (11.9 percent vs. 2.3 percent).
Region/Urbanicity
The rate of current cigarette use was 32.0 percent in the North Central region, 27.9 percent in
the South, 25.5 percent in the Northeast, and 24.5 percent in the West. The rate of smoking was
26.5 percent in large metropolitan areas, 27.2 percent in small metropolitan areas, and 30.5
percent in nonmetropolitan areas.
Education
Level of educational attainment was
correlated with tobacco usage. Fifty percent
of adults age 26-34 who had not completed
high school smoked cigarettes, while only
15 percent of college graduates in this age
group smoked. The opposite relationship
was found for cigar use: 10.7 percent of
college graduates age 26-34 were current
cigar smokers, compared to 7.5 percent of
those who had not completed high school.
Tobacco As a "Gateway Drug"
Youths age 12-17 who currently smoked cigarettes were 11.4 times more likely to use illicit
drugs and 16 times more likely to drink heavily than nonsmoking youths.
An estimated 5.6 percent of youths age 1217 were current cigar smokers in 1998. This
compares to 5.0 percent in 1997, not a statistically significant difference.
Between 1997 and 1998, there was no change in the percentages of youths age 12-17 reporting
great risk from using cigarettes, marijuana, cocaine, or alcohol.
The current rate of smoking among young adults age 18-25 has increased from 34.6 percent in
1994 to 40.6 percent in 1997 and 41.6 percent in 1998.
Survey Design
This survey is the primary source of statistical information on the use of illegal drugs by the
United States population. Conducted since 1971, the survey collects data by administering
questionnaires to a representative sample of the population at their place of residence. The
survey covers residents of households, noninstitutional group quarters (e.g., shelters, rooming
houses, dormitories), and civilians living on military bases. Persons excluded from the survey
include homeless people who do not use shelters, active military personnel, and residents of
institutional group quarters, such as jails and hospitals.
Interviews were conducted with 25,500 persons between January and December 1998.
Response rates for household screening and for interviewing were 93.0 percent and 77.0
percent, respectively. The sample design oversampled Blacks, Hispanics, and young people, to
improve the accuracy of estimates for those populations. In addition, residents of Arizona and
California were oversampled to provide direct survey estimates for these state populations.
Editorial Note: The National Household Survey on Drug Abuse is one of the most carefully
conducted surveys in the nation. The sample coverage and the response rate are very good. The
survey administration methods are designed to elicit accurate responses even to very sensitive
questions.
Cigarette smoking has declined slightly among older adults and adolescent females, has
remained stable among adolescent males, and has increased substantially among young adults
(18-25 years of age). Smokeless tobacco use has remained stable, and cigar smoking has
increased.
More attention must be paid to prevention and cessation of smoking among young adults
as 42% of this group now smoke cigarettes.
2.3 Tobacco industry in Pakistan
2.3.1 Article by Syed M Aslam:
Smoking may not be good for health but it is certainly good for numerous national
economies around the world, and Pakistan is no exception. This article intends to highlight
the important role tobacco plays in the economics of the country, nothing more nothing less.
By Syed M. Aslam
Jul 31 - Aug 06, 2000
Tobacco industry — growing, manufacturing, distribution and retailing — contributed 4.4 per
cent or over Rs 27.5 billion to the total GDP of Pakistan including Rs 15.17 billion, including
Rs 14.54 billion in excise duty and sales tax, in 1997. It is the single biggest contributor of
excise duty, six-times than that from cotton yarn. Over 5 per cent of all taxes collected in the
country comes from the tobacco industry. It employs over one million people directly or
indirectly which in terms of full-time equivalent jobs means 312,500 jobs supporting some 1.2
million persons.
The area under tobacco cultivation increased by 30 per cent during 1990-91 to 1998-99 —
from 44,000 hectares to 57,000 hectares. The production has increased even more significantly
during the same period — by 145 per cent from 75,000 tonnes to 109,000 tonnes. The value-
added sector, the cigarette production, depicted a far more unproportionate increase of 72 per
cent — from 29.8 billion sticks to 51.5 billion sticks during the same period.
Tobacco is the only crop grown in Pakistan whose yield is well above the world average and
matches the per hectare yield in the US and other developed countries — an average yield of
1,900 kilograms per hectare. Tobacco industry — growing, manufacturing, distribution and
retailing employs over one million persons directly or otherwise. This translates in the full time
equivalent of 312,500 jobs supporting approximately 1.2 million persons. Manufacturing
employs the highest number of persons — 35 per cent followed by 33 per cent by growing and
32 per cent in distribution and retail.
Smuggling
It is easy to understand the threat of huge revenue loss that presence and easy availability of
smuggled cigarettes pose to the economy of Pakistan. The government is losing a substantial
revenue of Rs 3 billion from the smuggling of cigarettes into the country. According to Aslam
Khaliq, the director consumer and regulatory affairs of Pakistan Tobacco Company, the second
top cigarette manufacturer after Lakson Tobacco, the government is losing at least Rs billion
every year due to cigarette smuggling. He blamed the high taxation as the singular most
important incentive for cigarette smuggling.
This is true if one looks at the global trends of taxation on cigarettes. Smokers in Pakistan pay
the highest tax in the world second only to Denmark and the UK where 85 per cent and 82 per
cent of the retail price respectively goes toward taxation. In Pakistan, 78 per cent of the retail
price of premium brands ( all brands whose retail price is over Rs 10 per 20 sticks) and 58 per
cent of the retail price of low segment brands go toward taxation.
Price war
Defending the price war started by PTC by slashing the prices of a number of its middle-priced
brands early this year, Aslam said that it brought numerous domestic manufacturers in the
excise duty and sales tax net. For instance, slashing the prices on some of its brand by 50 per
cent from Rs 19 to Rs 9 reduced the excise duty from 63 per cent to 43 per cent with sales tax
remaining unchanged at 15 per cent. Despite price reduction, Aslam said, PTC was able to
break even due to increased turnover and at the same time forced manufacturers who did not
pay excise duty and sales tax in the net to create a level playing field.
Though worried about smuggling and high taxation, Aslam expressed that cigarette prices in
Pakistan are on the much low side. He said that the manufacturers should be allowed to
increase the prices of their products to better their revenues which are constantly threatened by
massive smuggling. He also suggested that price increases would help discourage smoking in
the country.
True. Experience in many countries show that each 10 per cent increase in cigarette prices
results in a 5 per cent decrease in the numbers of smoking adults and much more in young
adults — between 6 to 8 per cent — who have little surplus funds to spend on smoke.
However, the argument that high prices discourage smoking is a bit flawed particularly in the
context of Pakistan.
Number one, unlike all developed and many developing countries Pakistan choose not to spend
even a negligible portion of tobacco taxes on healthcare, research, education, and anti-smoking
activities. Such developing countries, not to mention the developed ones, as Nepal and Peru
spend a share of cigarette taxes to support cancer research and treatment. Latvia allocates 30
per cent of the revenue which it earns from the tobacco tax on healthcare. Iran earmarks a
portion of tobacco tax revenue on healthcare and education.
Secondly, if the manufacturers and policy makers are really serious about reducing smoking in
Pakistan through price increases — and no one say that they are — they need to raise taxes on
all brands of cigarettes be it locally manufactured — imported. Supporting the domestic
tobacco industry against imports, as is the case with Pakistan, may be good for the local
industry but negates the very argument that higher prices and taxation discourages smoking.
2.3.2 Investigating socio-economic-demographic determinants of
tobacco use in Rawalpindi, Pakistan:
Research article
Investigating socio-economic-demographic determinants of tobacco use in
Rawalpindi, Pakistan Ali Yawar Alam*1, Azhar Iqbal2, Khalif Bile Mohamud3,
Ronald E Laporte4,Ashfaq Ahmed5 and Sania Nishtar6
To investigate the socio-economic and demographic determinants of tobacco use
in Rawalpindi, Pakistan. Cross sectional survey of households (population based) with
2018 respondent (1038) Rural; 980 Urban) was carried out in Rawalpindi (Pakistan) and
included males and females 18–65 years of age. Main outcome measure was self reported
daily tobacco use.
Overall 16.5% of the study population (33% men and 4.7% women) used tobacco on a
daily basis. Modes of tobacco use included cigarette smoking (68.5%), oral
tobacco(13.5%), hukka (12%) and cigarette smoking plus oral tobacco (6%). Among those
not using tobacco products, 56%were exposed to Environmental tobacco smoke.
The adjusted odds ratio of tobacco use for rural residence compared to urban residence was
1.49(95% CI 1.1 2.0, p value 0.01) and being male as compared to female 12.6 (8.8 18.0, p
value 0.001).
Illiteracy was significantly associated with tobacco use. Population attributable percentage
of tobacco use increases steadily as the gap between no formal Education and level of
education widens.
There was a positive association between tobacco use and rural area of residence,
male gender and low education levels. Low education could be a proxy for low awareness
and consumer information on tobacco products. As Public health practitioners we should
inform the general public especially the illiterate about the adverse health consequences of
tobacco use.
Counter advertisement for tobacco use, through mass media particularly radio and
television, emphasizing the harmful effects of tobacco on human health is very much
needed.
2.3.3 PREVALENCE AND FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH CURRENT SMOKING AMONG HIGH SCHOOL ADOLESCENTS IN KARACHI, PAKISTANShafquat Rozi1, Saeed Akhtar1, Sajid Ali1 and Javaid Khan2
Our objective was to estimate the prevalence and evaluate factors associated with smoking
among high school adolescents in Karachi, Pakistan. A school-based, cross-sectional
survey was conducted in three towns in Karachi, namely, Gadap Town, Bin-Qasim Town
and Malir Town, from January through May 2003. Two-stage cluster sampling stratified by
school type was employed to select schools and students. We recruited and interviewed 772
male students regarding socio-demographic factors, smoking history of students, their
families/friends, number of siblings,
and place of residence.
The prevalence of smoking (30 days) among adolescents was 13.7%. Final multiple logistic
regression analysis showed that after adjusting for age, ethnicity, and place of residence,
being a student at a government school (OR=1.6; 95%CI: 1.0-2.7), parental smoking
Occupation * How many cigrettes per day. Crosstabulation
Count
How many cigrettes per day.
TotalMissing 0-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 25 & Above
Occupation Missing 36 0 0 0 0 0 36
Professional 1 16 0 0 0 0 17
Management 0 5 15 0 0 0 20
Technical 0 0 21 0 0 0 21
Sales 0 0 3 17 0 0 20
Finance 0 0 0 19 0 0 19
Businessman 0 0 0 10 21 0 31
Student 0 0 0 0 31 0 31
Others 0 0 0 0 11 57 68
Total 37 21 39 46 63 57 263
Chi-Square Tests
Value df
Asymp. Sig.
(2-sided)
Exact Sig. (2-
sided)
Exact Sig. (1-
sided)
Point
Probability
Pearson Chi-Square 1.044E3a 40 .000 .000
Likelihood Ratio 768.754 40 .000 .000
Fisher's Exact Test .000 .000
Linear-by-Linear
Association2.506E2b 1 .000 .000 .000 .000
N of Valid Cases 263
a. 36 cells (66.7%) have expected count less than 5. The minimum expected count is 1.36.
b. The standardized statistic is .000.
how many cigrettes per day
25 & above16-2011-156-100-5
Coun
t20
10
0
what is your ocupati
professional
management
technical
sales
financial
business man
student
others
5:- Calculation :-
As Asump. Sing (2-sided) is < 0.05 ,
Therefore
we can not accept H1o
H1o:- Consumers belonging to same occupation do not have a same consumption rate of
cigarettes.
We will accept H1a that is
H1a:- Consumers belonging to same occupation have a same consumption rate of
cigarettes.
CHAPTER – 5
CONCLUSION
The Top Three most preferred cigarette brands
1st = Gold leaf
With 79 out 263 respondents smoke it having 35%.
2nd = Benson & hedges
With 32 out of 236 respondents smoke it having 14.2%
3rd =Capstan
With 29 out of 263 respondents smoke it having 12.8%
RECOMMENDATIONS
Target Segments of Gold leaf:-
Age: - 18-20
Income: - 11,000 – 20,000
Consumption: - 25 & above
Occupation: - students
Location: - East
Target Segment of Benson & hedges:-
Age: - 41-45
Income: - 21,000 & above
Consumption: - 16 - 20
Occupation: - Financials
Location: -East
Target Segment of Capstan:-
Age: - 21-25
Income: - 6,000 – 10,000
Consumption: - 16- 20
Occupation: - Others
Location: - North
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