Progress towards the development of Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Scenarios for South Florida Jayantha Obeysekera and Jenifer Barnes Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling South Florida Water, Sustainability, and Climate Project Key Largo, March 3, 2013
77
Embed
Progress towards the development of Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Scenarios for South Florida
Progress towards the development of Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Scenarios for South Florida. Jayantha Obeysekera and Jenifer Barnes Hydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling. South Florida Water, Sustainability, and Climate Project Key Largo, March 3, 2013. Outline. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
Progress towards the development of Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Scenarios for South Florida
Jayantha Obeysekera and Jenifer BarnesHydrologic & Environmental Systems Modeling
South Florida Water, Sustainability, and Climate Project Key Largo, March 3, 2013
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Outline
SFWMD research on climate change – progress summary
Results of a 2 month exercise for the workshop on “Predicting Ecological Change in the Florida Everglades in a Future Climate Scenario” (FAU-CES, USGS, Florida Sea Grant, Jan 24-25, 2013)• Rationale for scenario selection
• Temperature• Precipitation• Sea Level Rise
• Scenario simulation using SFWMM (a.k.a. 2x2 model)
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Hydrologic Cycle - new paradigm of “Non-stationarity”
Primary Variables of interest:
Temperature Precipitation Evapotranspiration Saltwater Intrusion
Implications for: Water Management Energy Agriculture Tourism Health
SOLAR RADIATION
SALTWATER INTRUSION
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Everglades Restoration – Will traditional planning approach work?
Natural System Managed System CERP
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Nonstaionarity – A new paradigm for design
5
zq0p1
p0
q0 =1-p0
q1
p2p3
px
q2 q3 qx =(1-px)
Initial designflood
1 2 3 x
time (years)
. . .
𝑻= 𝑬ሾ𝑿ሿ= 𝟏 + ෑ� (𝟏 − 𝒑𝒕)𝒙𝒕=𝟏
∞𝒙=𝟏
Key West
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Research publications
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Potential Impacts on Water Resources Management in South Florida
Natural CyclesInter-annual
(e.g. El Nino and La Nina) to
Multi-decadal(e.g. AMO*)
Solar, Volcanos
Human InducedLand use changes
Greenhouse gases
Climate Change Drivers
Quartet of change:Stressors• Rising Seas• Temperature• Rainfall (both
average & extremes)
• Tropical Storms & Hurricanes
Water Management Impacts
• Direct landscape impacts (e.g. storm surge)
• Water Supply(e.g., saltwater intrusion)• Flood Control(e.g. urban flooding)• Natural Systems(e.g. ecosystem impacts, both coastal and interior)
*Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation of temperature in the Atlantic Ocean
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
1
23
4
5
67 8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
1819
20
21
2223
24
25
2627
28
29
30
31
3233
34
35
3637
38
39
40
41
42
43
44 4546
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
5859
60
61
62
63
6465
66
67
68
1 WEST PALM BEACH INTERNA 2 DAYTONA BEACH INTL AP 3 INGLIS 3 E 4 SAINT LEO 5 VENUS 6 DOWLING PARK 1 W 7 PENSACOLA REGIONAL AP 8 JACKSONVILLE INTL AP 9 MARINELAND 10 MIAMI INTERNATIONAL AP 11 ST PETERSBURG 12 MELBOURNE WFO 13 MOORE HAVEN LOCK 1 14 TAMIAMI TRAIL 40 MI BEN 15 LYNNE 16 ORTONA LOCK 2 17 PARRISH 18 PORT MAYACA S L CANAL 19 ST LUCIE NEW LOCK 1 20 LAKELAND 21 PENNSUCO 5 WNW 22 CLEWISTON 23 CANAL POINT GATE 5 24 FOLKSTON GA25 KEY WEST INTL AP 26 NICEVILLE 27 TALLAHASSEE WSO AP 28 BELLE GLADE HRCN GT 4 29 LISBON 30 NORTH NEW RVR CANAL 2 31 GRACEVILLE 1 SW 32 BRISTOL 33 FARGO GA34 APALACHICOLA AIRPORT
35 VENICE 36 BOCA RATON 37 FORT MYERS PAGE FIELD A 38 COOLIDGE GA39 WOODRUFF DAM 40 MIAMI WSO CITY 41 RAIFORD STATE PRISON 42 VERO BEACH 4 SE 43 BLACKMAN 44 BROOKSVILLE 7 SSW 45 ORLANDO INTL AP 46 ORLANDO WSO AIRPORT 47 LIGNUMVITAE KEY 48 LOXAHATCHEE 49 GRADY 50 OKEECHOBEE 51 LAMONT 6 WNW 52 ORANGE CITY 53 BRANFORD 54 GAINESVILLE 3 WSW 55 BROOKSVILLE CHIN HILL 56 CROSS CITY 2 WNW 57 KISSIMMEE 2 58 MONTICELLO 5 SE 59 PANAMA CITY 5 N 60 BAINBRIDGE GA61 TAMIAMI CANAL 62 BAINBRIDGE GA INTL PAPER63 VERO BEACH MUNI ARPT 64 PENSACOLA WB CITY 65 PANAMA CITY 2 66 VERNON 67 NORTH NEW RIVER CANAL 1 68 WAUSAU
-86 -84 -82 -80
2526
2728
2930
31
flx
fly
Alachua
Apopka
Arcadia
Avalon
Balm
Belle Glade
Bronson
Brooksville
Carrabelle
Citra
Clewiston
Dover
Fort Lauderdale
Frostproof
Fort Pierce
Hastings
Homestead
Immokalee
Indian River
Jay
KenansvilleLake Alfred
Live Oak Macclenny
Marianna
Monticello
North Port
Ocklawaha
Okahumpka
Ona
Palmdale
Pierson
Putnam Hall
Quincy
Sebring
Umatilla
1 Alachua2 Apopka3 Arcadia4 Avalon5 Balm6 Belle Glade7 Bronson8 Brooksville9 Carrabelle10 Citra11 Clewiston12 Dover13 Fort Lauderdale14 Frostproof15 Fort Pierce16 Hastings17 Homestead18 Immokalee19 Indian River20 Jay21 Kenansville22 Lake Alfred23 Live Oak24 Macclenny25 Marianna26 Monticello27 North Port28 Ocklawaha29 Okahumpka30 Ona31 Palmdale32 Pierson33 Putnam Hall34 Quincy35 Sebring36 Umatilla
USGS map
FAWN
COAPS
USGS
UCF - extremes
141,332 pixels
PRISM
192,366 pixels
SFWMD
Validation Data
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Natural Variability (Teleconnections)Rainfall vs. El Nino & La NinaRainfall patterns
Lake Okeechobee Inflow
Tropical storm patterns Kwon, Lall, and Obeysekera (2008)
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING10
South Florida Water Management Model
Integrated surface water groundwater model
Regional-scale 2 mi x 2mi grid, daily time step
Major components of hydrologic cycle
Overland and groundwater flow, seepage
Operations of C&SF system Water shortage policies Agricultural demands
simulated Provides input and
boundary conditions for other models
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
SFWMM ModelModel Output
• Daily time series of water levels, flows
• Demands not
met• Land Use/Land Cover• Water Demands• Operating Criteria
• Climatic Input– Rainfall– ET
• Boundary Conditions
PerformanceMeasures
(Ag, Env, Urban)
Scenario
Regional Modeling Approach
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
General Circulation Models
(GCMs)
Observed Climate Data
Is there evidence that climate is changing in
Florida? How well are south Florida’s climate and
teleconnections represented by climate
models?
How do climate projections affect water resources management?
Simulation of Late 20th Century
21st Century Climate
Projections
Downscale (Statistical & Dynamical) global information to regional information
Using Climate Change Information
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
What exactly wefind for Florida?
Book of Climate Output
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Historical Trends in FloridaTemperature and Precipitation
Variable Averages Extremes (by season)
Daily temperature
Average temperature
Number of hot days
• Number of days of extreme values (above 2-year return period)
• Maximum and minimum seasonal values
• Number of extreme events of duration 2, 3, 5, and 7 days
Precipitation
Total precipitation
Number of wet days
• Number of days of extreme values (above 2-yr return period)
• Highest seasonal value• Number of heavy
precipitation events of duration 2, 3, 5, and 7 days
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Florida - Main Observations
number of wet days during the dry season – POR
May precipitation throughout the state – POR and especially post-1950. May be linked to changes in start of the wet season.
Urban heat island effect – urban (and drained) areas Tave and number of dog days for wet
(warm) season especially post-1950 Decrease in DTR ( Tmin > Tmax) Annual maximum of Tave and Tmin for all
seasons in POR and especially post-1950
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
GCM Resolution in Florida
Uncertainties in GCM predictions due to: Poor resolution – South Florida not even modeled in some GCMs; greater errors at
smaller scales From IPCC AR4-WG1, Ch. 8 - Simulation of tropical precipitation, ENSO, clouds and
their response to climate change, etc.
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Climate Projection Uncertainties
Internal
Variability
General Circulation
Model
Downscaling
Ice Sheet Dynamics
Scenarios
GCM(IPCC, 2007)
Statistical
Dynamical
B1 A1T B2 A1B A2 A1FI
1.1-2.9 (○C)
1.4-3.8 (○C)
1.4-3.8 (○C)
1.7-4.4 (○C)
2.0-5.4 (○C)
2.4-6.4 (○C)
0.18-0.38 (m)
0.20-0.45 (m)
0.20-0.43 (m)
0.21-0.48 (m)
0.23-0.51 (m)
0.26- 0.59 (m)
BCM2 Constructed Analogues (CA)
Bias Correction and Spatial Downscaling (BCSD)
Weather Generators
Regional Climate
Models
(RC
Ms)
Climate Change Implications in Water Resources Investigations: Scenario based approaches Use all models Model Culling?
Dynamical DownscalingNorth American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program
Acknowledgement:NARCCAP is funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF), the U.S. Department of Energy (DoE), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of Research and Development (EPA)."
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
A2 Emissions Scenario
GFDL CCSMHADCM3link to European
Prudence
CGCM3
1971-2000 current 2040-2070 futureProvide boundary conditions
MM5Iowa State/PNNL
RegCM3UC Santa CruzICTP
CRCMQuebec,Ouranos
HADRM3Hadley Centre
RSMScripps
WRFNCAR/PNNL
CAM3Time slice
50km
GFDLTime slice
50 km
NARCCAP Scenario & Model Suite
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
ChangeTemperature
NARCCAP
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
ChangePrecipitation
NARCCAP
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Changes in duration of “dog days” & “freezing temperatures”
Dog days – Mean Number of days average above 80º FHistorical
Change from1970-1999to 2040-2069
CGCM3-CRCM HADCM3-HRM3
Absolute ValueChange from1970-1999to 2040-2069
Freezing – Mean Number of days minimum below 32º F
Absolute ValueChange from1970-1999to 2040-2069
Change from1970-1999to 2040-2069
BCCA
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Can RCM be used to compute future ET?
)1(
1)()(1
a
c
adspn
rr
reecGR
ET
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Model skill: Precipitation Extremes (Rainfall Depth – Duration)
Observed
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Sea Level Rise
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Rising Seas – Historical Data
WilmingtonCharleston
Fort PulaskiMayport
Key West
St. Petersburg
Pensacola
Relative Sea Level (height above a local datum) depends on:• Global Mean Sea Level • Regional Variability• Vertical Land Movement
(uplift/subsidence)
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Unified SE FL Sea Level Rise Projection
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Projected range of sea level rise (National Climate Assessment, 2013)
Demands (Agricultural areas):• Ran AFSIRS using rainfall and ET scenarios
Boundary Inflows• Rainfall-Runoff relationships
37
HYDROLOGIC & ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS MODELING
Modeling Scenarios
2010 Baseline (demands and landuse corresponding to 2010 simulated with the 1965-2005 rainfall & ET (BASE)
2010 Baseline with 10% decrease in rainfall (decRF) 2010 Baseline with 10% increase in rainfall (incRF) 2010 Baseline with 1.5° Celsius increase and 1.5 foot sea level rise
with increased coastal canal levels (incET) 2010 Baseline with 10% decrease in rainfall, 1.5° Celsius increase and