PROGRESS REPORT for INTERNET and SOCIAL MEDIAdqkjwx3xr6pzf.cloudfront.net › c154858 › Prism_2_15_12.pdf · Internet and Social Media crystal clear IN THIS ISSUE: Square Turntable.fm

Making diffuse information about the Internet and Social Media crystal clear IN THIS ISSUE: Square Turntable.fm Comscore: Internet Trends

Pinterest Core Search Mobile Search Mobile Platforms Retail Ecommerce

February 15, 2012

THE INFORMATION HEREIN IS ONLY FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS AS DEFINED IN RULE 501 OF REGULATION D UNDER THE SECURITIES ACT OF 1933 OR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS. Wedbush Securities does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Please see page 18 of this report for analyst certification and important disclosure information.

1000 Wilshire Blvd, • Los Angeles, CA 90017

213.688.8000 • www.wedbush.com MEMBER NYSE/FINRA/SIPC

PROGRESS REPORT for INTERNET and SOCIAL MEDIA

PRISM

Michael Pachter (213) 688-4474 [email protected] Yoni Yadgaran (212) 938-9924 [email protected]

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WEDBUSH | PROGRESS REPORT for INTERNET and SOCIAL MEDIA

About Wedbush Securities Private Shares Group The Private Shares Group of Wedbush Securities is a leader in providing research and trading to the rapidly growing industry of privately traded securities, with an emphasis on companies in the social media space. We assist companies in raising growth capital through traditional private placements and provide liquidity options for existing and former employees through tailored selling programs. We also work with venture capital, private equity and hedge fund investors to help them adjust their holdings in some of the most dynamic companies. We endeavor to understand the underlying industries of the private companies we trade, in order to help our clients make informed decisions about their investments. We provide discreet customized solutions for our institutional and accredited private clients through a team of professionals located in New York, Los Angeles and San Francisco.

About Michael Pachter

Michael Pachter is the Managing Director, Equity Research providing coverage across the Digital Media sector and Head of Research for the Private Shares Group. He has been recognized as StarMine’s “Top Earnings Estimator” year after year and “Best on the Street” by the Wall Street Journal. Michael brings over 20 years of experience as a financial professional to the Private Shares Group along with extensive knowledge across the social media sector in both public and private companies.

Mr. Pachter holds an M.B.A. from the Anderson School at the University of California at Los Angeles, a juris doctor from Pepperdine University, an LL.M. in Taxation from the University of Florida, and a bachelor’s in Political Science from California State University, Northridge.

About Yoni Yadgaran

Yoni Yadgaran joined Wedbush over a year ago from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Originally covering Internet & E-commerce within Equity Research, he later moved on to help pioneer the Private Shares Group’s Research efforts. Yoni is a CFA level 3 candidate and received a B.B.A in Finance from Baruch College. Contact Wedbush Securities Private Shares Group: Michael Pachter Managing Director, Equity Research Head of Research, Private Shares Group (213) 688-4474 | [email protected] Twitter: @michaelpachter Yoni Yadgaran Research Associate, Private Shares Group (212) 938-9924 | [email protected]

About Wedbush Securities

Founded in 1955, Wedbush Securities is a leading investment firm that provides brokerage, clearing, investment banking, equities research, public finance, fixed income sales and trading, and asset management to individual, institutional and issuing clients. Wedbush currently ranks a top liquidity provider for NASDAQ, and was ranked #1 stock picker for 2010, and again in 2011 by Barron’s. Headquartered in Los Angeles, with over 100 offices nationwide, Wedbush focuses on relentless service, client financial safety, continuity, and advanced technology. (www.wedbush.com)

Kevin Cohen Director of Trading, Private Shares Group (213) 688-8089 | [email protected] Cyrus P. Pirasteh Managing Director Head of Equity Trading, Technologies & Operations (213) 688-6661 | [email protected]

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Facebook Trading Update Facebook trading has experienced a surge of activity since the S-1 filing announcement at the beginning of February. The price has continued to climb, with large blocks approaching the $35 level while scattered smaller-sized trades have reportedly printed over $40. Most smaller sized transactions about which we have heard seem to be in the $37 to $40 range. Those buyers who command over 1mm shares are successfully able to negotiate prices in the mid 30’s, even with only a few large selling blocks remaining in the market (presumably, the sellers are trying to avoid the 180-day expected trading lock-up post-IPO)..

For more information, institutional clients should contact our trading desk.

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Square Square, originally named Squirrel, allows merchants to process credit and debit card payments through a smart phone app. In the United States, the company targets the lower- or low-volume small businesses which have yet to adopt traditional credit card processing systems that have, historically, been heavy in initial costs and monthly fees. Square operates as the medium or acquirer between merchants and payment networks, including Visa and MasterCard. The company was co-founded in 2009 by CEO Jack Dorsey, who was also a co-founder (and former CEO) of Twitter.

Source: Visa A $10-million Series A round from Khosla Ventures and several other investors in November 2009 ($40-million valuation) provided the capital necessary to launch Square’s Reader product in early 2010. The company raised another $27.5 million in 2011 from Sequoia Capital and Khosla Ventures at a reported $240-million valuation. Roelof Botha, a partner at Sequoia, and the former CFO of PayPal, joined Square’s Board. Square also disclosed that it was signing up merchants at a rate of 100,000 per month (up from 30,000 per month a year earlier). By the end of Q1 2011, Square had processed over $66 million in payments, well above the $40 million the company had been expecting at the start of the year. In April, Visa made a strategic investment in Square for an undisclosed amount, reaffirming the company’s legitimacy. In June, Larry Summers, the former U.S. Treasury Secretary and President of Harvard, and Vinod Khosla, founder of Khosla Ventures, joined Square’s Board. A week later, the company announced a $100 million Series C financing, led by KPCB and Tiger Global, at a valuation that was reported to have been over $1 billion. In addition to the raise, Mary Meeker, a partner at KPCB, joined the company’s board. In November, Square received a $3-million investment from Richard Branson, founder of the Virgin Group. At the time, Square had signed over 800,000 merchants, which is 10% of the 8 million merchants currently accepting Visa and MasterCard. The company disclosed that it was processing payments at an $11 million daily rate, up from $3 million in May and $4 million in July. The company announced plans to expand internationally in 2012, but has yet to begin support for non-U.S. merchants. Merchants are required to submit a Social Security Number, a U.S.-based bank account, and a U.S. mailing address, to activate a new Square account, which precludes non-U.S. citizens from participating. By the end of 2011, Square had been adopted by over a million merchants. Square currently has over 200 employees, and is headquartered in San Francisco, with offices in St. Louis and New York as well. Square’s Reader offers a low-end alternative to traditional point-of-sale devices, providing the necessary software for smaller businesses to adopt credit card payments to increase convenience for customers, while forgoing the multiple layers of fees associated with traditional credit card processing solutions. Rather than having to pay upfront for a credit card reader (often $300 or more), paying a monthly fee, committing to a multi-year contract, filling out paper work, and undergoing a credit check, Square’s customers can bypass these steps and the associated hassles. An account with Square is free to open, and does not require any type of contract. The company charges a flat fee of 2.75% of transaction value when a card is swiped, and 3.5% with a 15¢ surcharge for keyed in transactions. The company has made clear that it does not plan to offer any type of flexible pricing model in the near future. Transactions can be accepted before a merchant receives their Reader, although the company limits deposits for manually entered transactions to $1,000 over any seven-day period, and withholds funds over the limit for 30 days. Full payments can be refunded within 60 days of a transaction, and Square returns its transaction fee as well. Merchants are not privy to a user’s information, although the company is working on an opt-in feature that would let customers leave their name or email if they choose to. Square has yet to support PayPal accounts, although we do believe that there are mutual benefits that can be derived from such a partnership. According to COO Keith Rabois, 65% of merchants using Square have some type of mobile business, and credit and debit cards are used in only half of Square transactions. Square currently offers a credit-card reader, an Android and iOS app for merchants, a register app for iPad using merchants, and a Card Case app for customers.

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The Reader plug-in device is compatible with iOS and Android devices, and can easily be set up to begin accepting payments. The device itself is measures about a square inch (hence the company’s name), and plugs-in to the audio jack of a merchants device. Any card with a Visa, MasterCard, American Express, or Discover logo can be accepted, which includes debit, gift and pre-paid cards. Payments can only be accepted when a user’s device is connected to the Internet for security reasons. Furthermore, a merchant’s mobile geo-location settings must be enabled at all times during a transaction, allowing a customer to see where they have bought an item on their digital receipt.

Source: Company Site When a merchant opens an account with Square and downloads the app, it has an option of receiving the Reader via mail, or purchasing it at over 10,000 local retailers (up from only 200 this past summer). Retailers who have partnerships with Square include Wal-Mart, Apple Stores, Best Buy, RadioShack, and Target. Earlier this month, the company partnered with T-Mobile, which began carrying the Reader in a select number of its retail stores (we estimate around 130). Square also reported that 80% of the U.S. population lives within 15 miles of a Square retailer. Buying the Reader from a retail partner requires a $10 initial fee, which is refunded to a merchant’s bank account using a redemption code that comes with the device. Merchants link their account through Square’s app, and payments are deposited within 12 to 36 hours after a payment is accepted. All transaction data between Square and a merchant is encrypted, and the company securely houses its servers and network. Features of Square’s app which are available to merchants differ depending on the type of mobile device used.

Source: Company Site

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In May 2011, the company launched an app for iPad users, called Register, which serves as a point-of-sale system, helping merchants to track inventory, share location and menu information, and take payments. The application is meant to replace traditional cash registers as a checkout device, making it easier for merchants to update pricing and maintain a virtual storefront, with capabilities to accept cash using an integrated payment management system. The iPad app allows merchants to control a receipt printer and cash register drawer using an Internet connection. Merchants can download their transaction history in Excel format for easy access and manipulation. The Menus feature provides trending items, as well as daily deals and offerings, directly to a customer’s mobile device, and utilizes push-notification to generate awareness when a merchant updates their offerings. Digital receipts allow merchants to save paper, while customers can track purchases in an organized manner using their smart-phones. Merchants can set a Loyalty Program in place, which automatically provides frequent customers with discounts, although a customer would have to be a Card Case user to be eligible.

Source: Company Site Estimates by Xyologic place total downloads of Square’s iOS and Android app at 566,000 (48% of total downloads) and 606,000 (52%) respectively as of the end of 2011. While these numbers are subject to modeling errors, they are close enough to give us a sense of the general profile of merchant tendencies. iPad downloads accounted for 13% of the 1.17 million downloads (26% of iOS dowloads), while iPhone users downloaded 36% (74% of iOS), and Android users accounted for the remainder. In December, the last month for which Xyologic has published data, the mix had shifted towards iPhone users, who accounted for 51% of that month’s downloads, up from the cumulative share of 36%. iPad download share remained stable, while Android’s lost share to Apple’s iOS devices.

Cumulative % Dec-11 %iOS 566 48% 43 63%Android 606 52% 25.7 37%

iPad 149 13% 8 12%iPhone 417 36% 35 51%

Total 1172 68.7

Square Dowload Estimates (000 )

Source: Wedbush Securities, Xyologic Square’s Card Case app launched in May 2011. The app allows users to open tabs at neighborhood merchants, store digital copies of receipts, and browse offerings and menus of local merchants. Customers can read the Tweets of target merchants and utilize the service to find local businesses about which they have interest. The app is activated through a text message sent following a purchase made using Square, and is linked to a user’s credit card.

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Source: Company Site The Tabs feature can be turned on through a merchant’s virtual card that is held in the Card Case. Customers can choose to automatically open tabs at local merchants when they are close to a store, which the Card Case communicates to a merchant’s Register app. The customer uses his/her name to pay for an item, forgoing the need for a wallet or even taking out a phone. A Directory feature provides the merchant visibility among local customers by allowing them to browse different stores in their neighborhood without physically being there. Within the Directory are Merchant Cards, which summarize a merchant’s Twitter feed, inventory, and purchase history. We note that Xyologic estimates the Card Case app has been downloaded a total of only 63,000 times as of December 2011, split evenly between Android and iOS, with one-third of cumulative downloads occurring in December. A trend seen in this year’s elections is the use of Square by political campaign workers, who are collecting donations using the device. Instead of receiving a pledge with a low follow-through rate, campaign workers can collect the donation at campaign events while emotions remain high. Other areas where Square provides significant utility include seasonal businesses that would have to repay the startup fee for a traditional processer every season that they reopen their business. While Square pioneered mobile POS solutions, other players have quickly followed its lead. Intuit’s GoPayment solution provides Merchants with a free mobile app and card reader, and charges a lower rate for high volume plans. Merchants who process more than $1,000 monthly are charged 1.7% on all transactions where a user swipes their card (swipe rate), in addition to a $13 per month service charge. Merchants who have less than a $1,000 per month in sales pay a 2.7% swipe rate, although they do not pay any type of monthly fee. Manually entered transactions have a 3.7% and 2.7% charge for the low- and high-volume plans respectively, which compares to Square’s 3.5% rate with a 15¢ surcharge. Transaction data can be downloaded into a merchant’s QuickBooks program, and much of the functionality provided by Square’s app is made available to GoPayment users as well. Intuit partnered with AT&T in November, allowing the company to leverage AT&T’s retail presence in the same way that Square’s partnership with T-Mobile has done. Furthermore, the $13 monthly charge for high volume plans can automatically be included in a merchant’s monthly AT&T phone bill.

Source: Company Site Other competing mobile payment solution services with different approaches include Payfone, Verifone’s PAYware, ClearXchange (joint venture between Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Chase), WePay, Serve (American Express), and Google Wallet, which leverages Near Field Communication (NFC) enabled mobile devices.

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Some 95% of the 27.5 million small businesses in the United States do not accept credit cards. In July 2011, Gartner Group projected global mobile payments at over 141.1 million users (up 38% y-o-y) and $86 billion in transaction volume (up 76% y-o-y) for 2011. Other estimates are as high as $241 billion in global payment transactions in 2011, with projections of a $1-trillion market by 2015. To put the size of the opportunity in perspective, we look at the transaction volume across the four payment networks that Square accepts. In calendar year 2010, Square’s affiliate payment networks facilitated 112 billion payments, with an aggregate transactional value of over $6 trillion. Visa accounted for 53% of payment volume, while MasterCard and American Express accounted for 33% and 11% respectively.

Calendar 2010 Number of Transactions (Billion)

71

35

52

112

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Visa MasterCard AmericanExpress

Discover Total

Calendar 2010 Payments Volume ($Billion)

$3,273

$2,047

$702

$107

$6,129

$-

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

Visa MasterCard AmericanExpress

Discover Total

Source: Wedbush Securities, Company Filings The simplicity of Square has raised security issues that continue to be voiced as the company continues to gain traction and media attention. In March, the CEO of VeriFone, an incumbent merchant acquirer, posted an open letter expressing concerns over the security of Square. The letter posited that any programmer could write a program in less than an hour which would look exactly like the Square app, but would “skim” or copy a user’s credit card information; which could then be easily used for credit card fraud. VeriFone’s CEO placed blame on Square’s attempt to “cut corners” by forgoing the inclusion of an encryption mechanism within the Reader, which would resolve such a security concern by rendering any information skimmed as completely useless. Furthermore, VeriFone made a sample fake Square application freely available to the public, and sent a copy to Visa, Discover, American Express, and Chase. Square’s CEO Jack Dorsey responded in a letter by pointing out that anyone can skim a credit card using a pen and paper by simply looking at the information on the front of a credit card. It’s important to note that the VeriFone offers its own mobile card reader, called PAYware Mobile, which the company touts as encrypted.

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Turntable Turntable (Turntable.fm) is a social music service started in May 2011 by Seth Goldstien and Billy Chasen. The service evolved out of a previous project called Stickybits, which attached digital media to barcodes, and had raised $2 million before pivoting to focus on music. Rather than attempt to customize a user’s listening experience algorithmically (as Pandora does), Turntable uses music selected by other users of the service who choose to DJ. This adds an element of discovery, while still providing a constant stream of music that is tailored to a user’s general preferences. In July, Turntable reportedly raised a $7-million round at a $37.5 valuation, which was led by Union Square Ventures. In September, the company announced that it was launching an iPhone app, and that membership had grown to over 600,000 users from a reported 140,000 in its first month after launch. Turntable also opened the beta to anyone, eliminating the need for an invite to join. Based in New York City, Turntable currently has ten employees and job listings for another five. New users can only join Turntable by logging in with either a Twitter or Facebook account. Turntable automatically feeds notifications to a user’s Facebook ticker when they like a song or performs as a DJ, unless a user chooses to opt out. There are multiple rooms a user can choose from when using the site, segmented by genre; and users have the option to create their own rooms as well. Users can choose to either only listen or join a queue to DJ when entering an existing room. There is a five DJ limit per room, and designated DJs rotate by choosing a single song each turn. Users who are idle for too long are booted from the rotation.

Source: Company Site Those who are listening in the room can vote on a song as “Lame” or “Awesome.” Songs that have been voted to be “Lame” by enough (50%) users result in the song being skipped, while “Awesome” votes earn the DJ points. A chat feature adds a social dynamic among listeners in a particular room, and new rooms can be setup as private as well. Points can be used to upgrade a user’s digital avatar, and when a listening user marks a song as “Awesome,” their avatar begins bobbing its head, serving as a reinforcing motivator for the DJ who chose the song. A DJ can choose to either upload a song from their desktop or choose a song directly from Turntable’s library, which is provided through a partnership with MediaNet, a digital content provider. From what we have observed, the majority of songs in popular rooms are uploaded. We note that because Turntable does not have licensing agreements with music labels, it must operate under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA), which provides protection under the condition that a service is not interactive (like Pandora). Turntable adds constraints for legal protection, including limitations on the number of times a single artist can be played, and the inability for a user to listen to more than a preview of a song while they are alone in a room. The company was forced to limit access to only U.S. users a month after launch due to licensing concerns. Tracks played are easily found on Amazon, iTunes, Last.fm, Spotify, and Rdio, by clicking an icon under the DJ booth in the front of a room. Turntable has yet to release an Android app, having only released an iPhone app, which has mostly the same functionalities as the desktop app.

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Source: Company Site We note that Turntable’s user base has leveled out as usage had grown by over 300% from June to September, yet Turntable’s monthly active users (MAUs) logging in with Facebook grew only 30% since mid-June (from 80,000 to 110,000 MAUs ). Among current MAUs, about 10 to 20% log in on a given day.

Source: Appdata The initial surge in sign-ups was driven by substantial word of mouth and eventually media coverage from the tech focused media. According to Simply Measured, a social analytics company, there were slightly more tweets in July about the service than there were about Pandora, and nearly half as many as Spotify, which had just launched in the United States and was significantly larger. Search volume from Google indicates that following an initial surge, discovery by new users had leveled off. Facebook’s introduction of a music-sharing feature through its ticker had the effect of detracting from Turntable’s novelty, as both services provided a way for users to discover music by listening with others. However, Turntable’s recent uptick in usage may be a sign of regained momentum, as the quality of music spun by a number of DJs on the site is on par, if not superior to, other streaming services.

Source: Google

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Comscore: Internet Trends A recent report by Comscore highlighted several key online trends seen within the United States over the past year. Share of online time spent on a social network had reached 16.6% by the end of 2011, up from 14.4% and 10.6% in 2010 and 2009, respectively. The decline of Internet portals continued throughout 2011, with share nearly converging with social networking by the end of the year, having fallen to 16.7% from 20.2% a year before. The entertainment category grew share slightly over the last year, reaching 13% of time spent online, up from 12.6%. Within social networking, Facebook maintains an 88% time share, accounting for 14.6% of total online usage, and 16% of total page views. Facebook’s share doubled from the end of 2009 (7.2%), growing to 14.3% (up from 12.3% at year end 2010). Outside of social, Facebook continues to have the largest share; well ahead of Google and Yahoo sites, which had 10.8% and 8.6% shares of online usage respectively.

Source: Comscore The report notes that instant messaging services have seen a 40% decline in usage over the last year, likely driven by the adoption of Facebook as a communication medium. Email usage has also been affected by Facebook and continued adoption of mobile devices, with share falling to less than 10% from 11% a year earlier. Comscore reports a 31% and 34% decline in time spent on web-based email services by users between the ages of 12 to 17 and 18 to 24, respectively. While the growth in email usage among older 65+ users can be explained by the continuing adoption of Internet usage outpacing the adoption of alternative services, including social networks, we were surprised to see the 15% y-o-y growth in usage for those in the ages 45 to 54 category, considering the 12% decline the year before.

Web-Based Email Usage: Y-o-Y Change

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

12-17 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

Dec 2010

Dec 2011

Source: Wedbush Securities, Comscore

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Comscore notes that in 2011, 90% of Internet users visit at least a single social network every month. Facebook, which now reaches nearly 75% of U.S. Internet users, increased time spent on its site by 32%, with average usage per visitor surpassing seven hours in December.

Source: Comscore Twitter was the second most visited social network in the U.S. as of December 2011, with over 37.5 million unique visitors, followed by Linkedin and Myspace, who had 33.5 million and 24 million unique visitors respectively. Tumblr continued to grow its user base, reaching 18.8 million users by the end of the year, up 18% sequentially. Continued efforts by Google to integrate Google+ was reflected in user growth, reaching 20.7 million unique visitors in December, up 36% sequentially. However, while Facebook, Tumblr, and even Myspace, grew engagement over the same period by more than 7%, Google+ saw engagement stagnate at a negligible five minutes per month. Although Comscore notes that both Google+ and Twitter may see additional engagement via mobile devices, which Comscore does not track, we believe that the incremental minutes would still leave Google+ at far too low of an engagement level to be successful as a direct competitor to Facebook.

U.S. Social Networks: Avg. Minutes Per Visitor

423

151

80

25 15 13 50

100

200

300

400

500

Facebook Tumblr Pinterest Twitter Linkedin Myspace Google+

Nov 2011

Dec 2011

U.S. Social Networks: Unique Visitors

179

18.88

37.5 33.524 20.7

0

40

80

120

160

200

Facebook Tumblr Pinterest Twitter Linkedin Myspace Google+

Nov 2011

Dec 2011

Source: Wedbush Securities, Comscore, Company Filings

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Comscore: Pinterest The largest sequential gainer of traffic was Pinterest, which grew its user base by 54% from a month earlier, reaching nearly 8 million users in December, and then growing another 56% to reach 11.7 million users in January 2012. Surprisingly, user engagement fell 9% sequentially to 80 minutes in December. However, a month later engagement growth reversed sharply, growing 22% from December to January 2012, reaching average engagement levels of 98 minutes per user.

Source: Comscore We estimate that Pinterest will likely end February with as many as 18 million users. Furthermore, engagement levels in terms of daily active users (DAUs) as a percentage of monthly active users (MAUs) have remained steady at 20% over the same period, which indicates that engagement on a per-user basis will continue to be high. A report published by Appdata this week provided some interesting insight as to the current composition of Pinterest users. Using over a million fans of Pinterest’s Facebook page as a sample size, Appdata found that 98% of fans were female. We note that this figure is likely skewed by a hesitance among male Facebook users to broadcast a site like Pinterest among their Facebook friends; however, we believe there is definitely a significant female skew among the site’s quickly growing user base.

Source: Appdata

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Comscore: Core Search Trends Additional data published by Comscore included the decline of Yahoo’s share in search and Google’s sustained dominance. Google’s share of U.S. search grew to 66.2% in January 2012, up from 64.6% a year earlier and 66.1% the month before. Yahoo continues to lose its share to both Google and Microsoft, as it declined to 16% as of January 2012 from 17.9% a year earlier. Microsoft gained half of Yahoo’s lost queries, growing share from 12.8% to 13.8% over the same period. As we have previously mentioned, we continue to believe that Facebook is well positioned to offer its own curated version of search, leveraging its knowledge of a user’s network of friends and preferences, together with an employee base that is saturated with former Google employees. We do not expect Facebook to take on Google by indexing the Internet algorithmically, but instead expect it to integrate a far smaller, but higher quality selection of online destinations that will be determined both socially and through its existing user base of brands.

U.S. Core Search Share

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Jul'1

0

Aug'10

Sep'10

Oct

'10

Nov'10

Dec'1

0

Jan'1

1

Feb'11

Mar

'11

Apr'11

May

'11

Jun'1

1

Jul'1

1

Aug'11

Sep'11

Oct

'11

Nov'11

Dec'1

1

Jan'1

2

Google

Yahoo!

Microsoft

Source: Wedbush Securities, Comscore Core search U.S. query volume grew 8% year over year (y-o-y) in January 2012, with nearly 20 billion searches having been conducted per month. While desktop query growth has been decelerating, we note that continued adoption of mobile search results in total query volume is likely higher than Comscore reports, benefiting Google, which facilitates the vast majority of mobile search.

Total U.S. Search Queries (Millions)

-

2,500

5,000

7,500

10,000

12,500

15,000

17,500

20,000

22,500

Jul'1

0

Aug'1

0

Sep'1

0

Oct'10

Nov'1

0

Dec'1

0

Jan'11

Feb'1

1

Mar

'11

Apr'11

May

'11

Jun'

11

Jul'1

1

Aug'1

1

Sep'1

1

Oct'11

Nov'1

1

Dec'1

1

Jan'12


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Comscore: Mobile Search Trends As of October 2011, 93% of U.S. page views are on PCs and laptops, 4.5% are on mobile devices, and around 2% are on tablets. Dissecting mobile page views, Android accounts for roughly half, while iOS accounts for another 40%. Some 95.6% of tablet page views were on iPads. Within the United States, Comscore estimates that there were over 98 million Smartphone users and 57 million tablet or e-reader users as of December 2011. iPad users accounted for 26% of tablet users (14.7 million users), while Nook users accounted for another 9% (5.4 million). Looking at mobile’s growing contribution to paid search impressions on Google, Comscore notes that during the December holiday shopping season, mobile impressions peaked, contributing 16.4% of total impressions, nearly 40% of which were from tablets.

Source: Comscore

Mobile click share grew from 8.8% in January 2011 to 21.5% a year later, outpacing growth in impressions. As of January 2012, Comscore reports that mobile click through rates (CTRs) were 45% higher than computers. Mobile cost per click (CPCs) continues to be significantly cheaper than desktops (≈ 50% less), while tablet CPCs were only moderately cheaper than desktops (≈ 20% less). Revenue per click differs only slightly between tablets and desktops, averaging a little over $2.50, while mobile remains substantially lower at less than $0.50 per click.

Source: Comscore

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Comscore: Mobile Platforms Comscore estimates 234 million Americans are using mobile devices as of Q4:11. Share amongst most U.S. mobile OEMs remained relatively steady on a sequential basis between Q3 and Q4:11. Apple was the exception, as the fourth largest OEM grew share substantially from 10.2% to 12.4% on a sequential basis. Samsung continues to be the leading OEM in the United States, with a 25.3% share, up marginally from 24.8% the year before. Over the last year LG has seen its share fluctuate only slightly between 20 to 21%. Motorola, however, has continued to lose share to Apple over the last two years — Q4 market share fell from 23.5% in 2009, to 16.7% in 2010, and finally 13.3% by the end of 2011.

U.S. Mobile OEM Share

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Q4'09 Q1'10 Q2'10 Q3'10 Q4'10 Q1'11 Q2'11 Q3'11 Q4'11

Samsung LG Motorola Apple RIM

Source: Wedbush Securities, Comscore While RIM’s share as an OEM changed only slightly over the past two years (7% to 9%), its share as a smartphone platform has declined substantially. Between Q2:10 and Q4:11, RIM’s market share fell from 40% to 16%. Over the same period, Google’s Android OS grew share from 15% to over 47%, and Apple’s iOS grew from 24% to 30%. Microsoft has also consistently lost share, albeit at a slowing rate, falling from 13% share to a little less than 5%.

U.S. Smartphone Platform Share

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Q2'10 Q3'10 Q4'10 Q1'11 Q2'11 Q3'11 Q4'11

Google Apple

RIM Microsoft


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Usage of mobile devices for media consumption continues to grow as device capabilities increase and users become more comfortable with device capabilities. Usage of mobile browsers reached 47.5% in Q4:11, up from 36% a year earlier and 27.5% in Q4:09. Mobile social networking usage rates more than doubled between Q4:09 and Q4:11, reaching 35% of mobile users, up from 16%. Mobile gaming and music streaming grew reach to 31% and 24% respectively, while app usage grew from 26% in Q4:09 to nearly 48% in Q4:11.

U.S. Smartphone Usage

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Q4'09 Q1'10 Q2'10 Q3'10 Q4'10 Q1'11 Q2'11 Q3'11 Q4'11

Mobile Browser Social networking GamingListened to music


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Comscore: Ecommerce Retail e-commerce growth continued to accelerate in 2011, as Q4 spend grew 14% y-o-y to reach $49.7 billion. Full year spend grew 13%, from $142.5 billion in 2010 to $161.5 billion in 2011. Comscore notes that 52% of transactions were provided with free shipping, driven by services like Amazon Prime.

U.S. Retail e-commerce Spend(Ex. Auto & Travel, $Millions)

$39,132 $38,071 $39,045

$43,432

$49,698

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

Q1'07Q2'07

Q3'07Q4'07

Q1'08Q2'08

Q3'08Q4'08

Q1'09Q2'09

Q3'09Q4'09

Q1'10Q2'10

Q3'10Q4'10

Q1'11Q2'11

Q3'11Q4'11

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Y-o-Y Growth


The mix shift from spend in brick and mortars to online services continues to grow consistently, as retail’s growth remains outpaced by e-commerce. The proliferation of smart-phones has resulted in an increasingly price savvy consumer, who arbitrages price discrepancies by visiting local retailers to browse inventory and comparing price points from their mobile device. We expect consumers to continue to spend a growing share of their discretionary spend online, a trend that Facebook is well positioned to monetize. The continued growth of incumbent online retailers (Amazon, eBay), in addition to emerging players (Gilt Groupe, Fab, etc. ) can serve as incremental sources of revenue for Facebook. It is far easier for a brand to justify ad spend when the source of a referral transaction can be tracked (online commerce), however spend on display ads in the hope of driving retail sales through awareness remains far closer to an art than a science. Furthermore, we see partnerships with Amazon and other brands with an existing presence on Facebook, as an opportunity for Facebook to increase its value further down the advertising funnel; serving as a medium for referral through a variety of methods. This may include a renewed effort in targeted deals, or efforts in search.

Amazon: North American Revenue By Segment($Millions)

$-

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

Q1'

07

Q2'

07

Q3'

07

Q4'

07

Q1'

08

Q2'

08

Q3'

08

Q4'

08

Q1'

09

Q2'

09

Q3'

09

Q4'

09

Q1'

10

Q2'

10

Q3'

10

Q4'

10

Q1'

11

Q2'

11

Q3'

11

Q4'

11

Electronics & Other General Merchandise Media Other

Source: Wedbush Securities, Company Filings, Webtrends

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Social Media Cartoon of the Week

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Key News Items Accel, SV Angel, Y Combinator Put $1.5M In Online Bank Payments Platform GoCardless: http://bit.ly/wrBLZG Amazon & Viacom Announce Streaming Video Deal: http://bit.ly/yew3zw Amazon S3 lowers prices for storing your precious terabytes: http://bit.ly/xyQm0r Blip chops off its “.tv” branding with a $12M investment sword: http://bit.ly/w8X9Q4 Boxee: ‘Cable companies’ ask FCC to change rules, wants to mandate set-top boxes with monthly fee: http://bit.ly/AiYkqP

http://bit.ly/AjnqnP BranchOut: Branches Out to 300 Million Users: http://on.wsj.com/yx2qgq Capital Access Network Raises $30M From Accel To Loan Small Businesses Working Capital: http://bit.ly/zhSAkJ comScore Releases January 2012 U.S. Search Engine Rankings: http://bit.ly/yNSFhw DeNA Has Big Quarter, Acquiree Ngmoco: http://bit.ly/xX8Ciq Developers say Facebook Credits is converting fewer paying users than they had hoped: http://bit.ly/wLV0Rn DocRun Raises $1.1M From Resolute.VC, Don Dodge And Others: http://bit.ly/zenQIm Dwolla raises $5M to continue its work on “really freaky stuff”: http://bit.ly/zkSOK8 Electronic Arts' CFO leaves for Polycom: http://bit.ly/wwJpq3 Etsy introduces direct checkout for US sellers, sidesteps PayPal: http://vrge.co/z5MO70 Extole Raises $10 Million: http://bit.ly/yaQFca Fab.com is gonna be big — Amazon big, says CEO: http://bit.ly/y5X9Oe Fab: The Three Things That Got Fab.com Two Million Users In Seven Months: http://bit.ly/yqrTlC Facebook And Zynga Have Exclusive Relationship: http://bit.ly/wcsRbf http://bit.ly/AvQ4Vw Facebook appends its 2005 stock plan to its IPO filing in new amendment: http://bit.ly/wB4wwF http://1.usa.gov/xKLn5Q Facebook As A Mobile Platform: 60 Million Mobile Users Visit Third-Party Apps Each Month: http://bit.ly/zlZthW Facebook Buys Web Addresses Related To Clean Energy: http://bit.ly/zzz1v0 Facebook Continues To Test New Photo Viewer Designs: http://bit.ly/z7IQpp Facebook Credits Underwhelm Game Developers: http://bit.ly/wbuefK Facebook Executives Set for Large Bonuses: http://on.wsj.com/x5tYmZ Facebook IPO Could Set Silicon Valley's Real Estate Market On Fire: http://bit.ly/zes4QU Facebook Is Testing Advanced Chat Visibility Settings: http://bit.ly/xGAgtv Facebook Likes Don’t Necessarily Mean Brand Loyalty: http://bit.ly/xdf52A Facebook partners with mobile billing provider Bango: http://bit.ly/wgm4hz Facebook shares climb 10% in private auction to $103B valuation: http://bit.ly/w7QoZY Facebook Signs Mysterious Deal With Mobile Payment Company: http://bit.ly/w8PxDa Facebook Usage May Rise With Job Market Rebound: http://bit.ly/wINXSw Facebook will release more user data: lobby group: http://bit.ly/yVxoSr Facebook woos photographers with new lightbox viewer, launching end of week: http://bit.ly/zh8kYD Facebook: California Pension Fund Challenges Facebook Over Board: http://on.wsj.com/ADdPyB http://bit.ly/AmKuTw Facebook: CalSTRS wants Facebook board to expand, add women: http://bit.ly/zUpHsA Facebook: Erroneous Timeline Warnings Go Viral On Facebook: http://bit.ly/zqy4kx Facebook: Investor activists see little to "like" in Facebook: http://bit.ly/A1I1nX Facebook: Mark Zuckerberg Used To Buy Shareholders' Voting Rights For $100: http://bit.ly/AAkvTM Facebook: Neighbors Try to Decide if They Like Facebook Exec's Modern House: http://on.wsj.com/w3iZxO Facebook: Sandberg Leads All-Star Lineup At Facebook’s First FMC Conference For Marketers: http://bit.ly/yYs3vv Foursquare Rolls Out New Version Of “Explore” On Mobile With Filters & Improved Search: http://bit.ly/xHWroz Gameloft breaks ground where Zynga hasn't, hits Google+ with Green Farm: http://aol.it/zq6zyH German police use Facebook pictures to nab crooks: http://bit.ly/w0O4T7 GigaOM Buys paidContent: http://dthin.gs/xNsuTA Gilt Groupe: Google's Controversial Search Changes Are Forcing Us To Take Google+ Seriously: http://bit.ly/ABKQUx Google ‘tops the table’ in Greenpeace report for investing in renewable energy: http://bit.ly/zm1Vtq Google Drive already being referenced to in Google Docs code: http://bit.ly/yvxJRH Google Fiber ready to start buildout in Kansas City: http://vrge.co/ABObmd Google Is Painting A Big Fat Target On Dropbox: http://bit.ly/yh6NIN Google Just Crushed It With The New Chrome App For Android: http://bit.ly/xIjXuj Google paying Chrome users to give up their personal browsing data: http://bit.ly/xEREQc Google plans to avoid Facebook’s “games ghetto” with Google+: http://bit.ly/yZJSFp Google releases Google+ for Android update: speed increase, ‘What’s Hot’ and more: http://bit.ly/xNrHMv Google Updates Chrome Browser, Now Offers Faster Browsing, Improved Security: http://bit.ly/zaI28C Google Wallet flaw takes the lock off your mobile money: http://bit.ly/wPTJu2

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Google Wants Huge Royalties Every Time Apple Sells An iPhone: http://bit.ly/ytVtmK Google: An update on the Google bar: http://bit.ly/Aq7wrD Google: Justice Department to approve Motorola deal, as early as next week: http://bit.ly/yucSLl Google: Only 1 “Top Brand” Has Created A Google+ Page In The Past Two Months,: http://bit.ly/y2sQC0 Google: Recent Bans Surface AdSense Publishers’ Complaints About Google: http://bit.ly/AlPWbr Google+ developers page launched, is an API on the way?: http://vrge.co/yC8nKG Google+ gains anti-spam filter, forms sharing, and more prominent post links: http://bit.ly/zOksAo Google-branded home entertainment center planned for 2012 launch: http://vrge.co/xISLFt Google-branded streaming music device in development: http://bit.ly/yyz5EE Groupon Finds A New Executive To Handle Andrew Mason: http://bit.ly/x8suWs Groupon: Ahead Of Its First Earnings Call, Demand To Short Groupon Is Rumored To Be Incredibly High: http://bit.ly/zX9go9 Groupon’s first earnings report a net loss, but they are still doing great if you don’t count what they spend: http://bit.ly/x3Fxhh Hasbro could take FarmVille, CityVille and more to toy land this fall: http://bit.ly/wBV9Fl HBO drops $10M on Australian rental service Quickflix: http://bit.ly/yOJjAO IA Ventures Doubles Down On Big Data With A New $105M Fund: http://bit.ly/yMkoRv IAC Trying to Sell Vimeo, Seeking $300M Valuation: http://bit.ly/wE3oW3 Ignite Takes $5 Million Series C To Build World Of Warcraft For Car Racing: http://bit.ly/zcYebx In-App Purchases Powering Free-to-Play Game Model Says Parks Associates: http://bit.ly/A8kcFU Instagram: How Slowing Down Put The Little Startup In The Fast Lane: http://bit.ly/zazZhD Japan’s DeNA generates $445M in Q4 revenues for mobile social gaming network: http://bit.ly/zwFJna Klarna Executives Who Were Arrested For Alleged Sexual Assault Temporarily Leave The Company: http://bit.ly/y2RJM7 Klout buys community app Blockboard, confirms intent to score offline influence: http://bit.ly/wiyxLr LinkedIn Beats The Street, Q4 Revenue Up 105 Percent To $167.7M: http://bit.ly/y83DlE LinkedIn Is Acquiring Contacts Start-Up Rapportive: http://dthin.gs/zkvWPg LinkedIn Will Introduce Ads To Mobile Apps: http://bit.ly/zwYJo5 Live Matrix, The “TV Guide For The Web,” Acquired By OVGuide: http://bit.ly/x4tw3p LivingSocial CEO Says 80% Of Businesses Are Willing To Do More Than One Deal: http://bit.ly/wl3QyN Livingsocial: Will Yahoo Buy LivingSocial? Source: "Ah, No."”: http://bit.ly/AoWaLI http://bit.ly/zQeWuH Mumbo Launches with $4 Million from Redpoint: http://bit.ly/wpZZ3e Netflix: Traffic down 40 percent during the game: http://bit.ly/zJoUG3 Nexon Brings KartRider to Facebook: http://bit.ly/yGcpJI Nexon invades Zynga’s turf with plan to launch Kart Rider on Facebook: http://bit.ly/wPDr7w Nielsen: most Americans still pay for traditional TV, but a growing minority go broadband-only: http://vrge.co/xZgjcA Obama shows further mastery of social by tweeting Spotify campaign playlist: http://bit.ly/AxwS6W Paddle8 raises $4M series A led by Founder Collective to bring fine art online: http://bit.ly/xArJTI Path CEO: We screwed up by uploading your personal data and we have erased it: http://bit.ly/w0kjJa Path, The App That's Trying To Destroy Facebook, Just Made A Huge Privacy Blunder: http://bit.ly/wAaBki Pinterest accused of replacing external affiliate links with its own: http://vrge.co/zD3WyM Pinterest Hits 10 Million U.S. Monthly Uniques Faster Than Any Standalone Site Ever –comScore: http://bit.ly/yVJqxd Pinterest: Here's The Secret, Clever Way Pinterest Is Making Money: http://bit.ly/zaaRFt Pogoplug now powers 1M personal clouds, expands retail and mobile presence: http://bit.ly/w46CAP ShopRunner Buys Shopsanity to Help Retailers Take on Amazon: http://bit.ly/zUZefl Spotify Takes Cues From Facebook Recruitment Tactics: http://bit.ly/ypYt7G TerraEchos fights security threats with data, attracts $1.55M seed funding: http://bit.ly/ApHc37 Facebook, iPhone, U.S. gamers have nearly tripled since 2008: http://bit.ly/wBV9Fl Thrillist: Revenue Exploded From ~ $10 To ~$30 Million Last Year: http://bit.ly/y3e9Zv Twitter Recruiting for a New VP Corporate Communications: http://bit.ly/yhOZqw Twitter SMS: Now available for satellite providers: http://bit.ly/wbHBUa Twitter: Source: I Interviewed For A Big Job At Twitter, And They Didn't Seem To Have A Plan: http://bit.ly/xNY3ns Venture capitalists favor Silicon Valley, but Silicon Alley is rising fast: http://bit.ly/vZzoUF VEVO Execs Must Face Criminal Charges For Copyright Infringement: http://bit.ly/wIrZDl Viddy steals $6M from Silicon Valley VCs for social video: http://bit.ly/xhpq6E Waze uses the iPhone proximity sensor to launch hands-free traffic reporting for iOS: http://vrge.co/z5xVHa Yahoo chairman exits, review drags on: http://bit.ly/zmcJa9 Yammer Is VERY Close To A $50 Million Round: http://bit.ly/wXdjLY Yelp Ads Are Not A Rip-Off, You Pay To Seal The Deal: http://bit.ly/whv7V1 Zynga Chokes out Competition, Ex-Employee Confirms: http://bit.ly/z4lZ3X Zynga: Expectations and Regulations for Real-Money Social Gambling: http://bit.ly/xAjxLw Zynga: FarmVille finally goes widescreen on Facebook: http://bit.ly/yx00nw

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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES Covered Companies Mentioned in this Report (priced intraday February 15, 2012)

COMPANY TICKER RATING PRICE PRICE TARGET

APPLE AAPL OUTPERFORM $509.33 $585.00 VISA V NEUTRAL $115.67 $90.00 MASTERCARD MA NEUTRAL $394.49 $365.00 PANDORA P OUTPERFORM $13.53 $14.00 INTUIT INTU OUTPERFORM $56.54 $64.00 EBAY EBAY OUTPERFORM $33.37 $48.00 RESEARCH IN MOTION RIMM NEUTRAL $14.87 $16.00 NOKIA NOK NEUTRAL $5.11 $6.00

The information contained herein is intended for accredited investors as defined in Rule 501 of Regulation D under the Securities Act of 1933 or institutional investors.

WEDBUSH SECURITIES Wedbush does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. The analysts responsible for preparing research reports do not receive compensation based on specific investment banking activity. The analysts receive compensation that is based upon various factors including WS’ total revenues, a portion of which are generated by WS’ investment banking activities. ANALYST CERTIFICATION I, Michael Pachter, certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal opinion and that I have not and will not, directly or indirectly, receive compensation or other payments in connection with my specific recommendations or views contained in this report. Disclosure information regarding historical ratings and price targets is available at http://www.wedbush.com/ResearchDisclosure/DisclosureQ411.pdf INVESTMENT RATING SYSTEM Outperform: Expect the total return of the stock to outperform relative to the median total return of the analyst’s (or the analyst’s team) coverage universe over the next 6-12 months. Neutral: Expect the total return of the stock to perform in-line with the median total return of the analyst’s (or the analyst’s team) coverage universe over the next 6-12 months. Underperform: Expect the total return of the stock to underperform relative to the median total return of the analyst’s (or the analyst’s team) coverage universe over the next 6-12 months. The Investment Ratings are based on the expected performance of a stock (based on anticipated total return to price target) relative to the other stocks in the analyst’s coverage universe (or the analyst’s team coverage).* Rating Distribution (as of December 31, 2011)

Investment Banking Relationships (as of December 31, 2011)

Outperform:60% Neutral: 35% Underperform: 5%

Outperform:12% Neutral: 1% Underperform: 0%

The Distribution of Ratings is required by FINRA rules; however, WS’ stock ratings of Outperform, Neutral, and Underperform most closely conform to Buy, Hold, and Sell, respectively. Please note, however, the definitions are not the same as WS’ stock ratings are on a relative basis.

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The analysts responsible for preparing research reports do not receive compensation based on specific investment banking activity. The analysts receive compensation that is based upon various factors including WS’ total revenues, a portion of which are generated by WS’ investment banking activities. Capital Markets Disclosures as of February 15, 2012

Company Disclosure APPLE 1 VISA 1 MASTERCARD 1 PANDORA 1 INTUIT 1 EBAY 1 RESEARCH IN MOTION 1 NOKIA 1

Research Disclosure Legend

1. WS makes a market in the securities of the subject company. 2. WS managed a public offering of securities within the last 12 months. 3. WS co-managed a public offering of securities within the last 12 months. 4. WS has received compensation for investment banking services within the last 12 months. 5. WS provided investment banking services within the last 12 months. 6. WS is acting as financial advisor. 7. WS expects to receive compensation for investment banking services within the next 3 months. 8. WS provided non-investment banking securities-related services within the past 12 months. 9. WS has received compensation for products and services other than investment banking services within the

past 12 months. 10. The research analyst, a member of the research analyst’s household, any associate of the research

analyst, or any individual directly involved in the preparation of this report has a long position in the common stocks.

11. WS or one of its affiliates beneficially own 1% or more of the common equity securities.

Private securities may involve a high degree of risk and are intended for sophisticated investors who are capable of understanding and assuming the risks involved.

Private securities may have a high level of volatility. High volatility investments may experience sudden and large drop in their value causing losses that may equal your original investment.

Private securities are illiquid and may not be readily realizable and it may be difficult to sell or realize those investments, similarly it may prove difficult for you to obtain reliable information about the value, or risks, to which such an investment is exposed.

Investors should obtain advice from their own financial advisor and only make investment decisions on the basis of the investor’s own objectives, experience, risk tolerance, and resources.

The information herein is based on sources that we consider reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The information contained herein is not a representation by this corporation, nor is any recommendation made herein based on any privileged information.

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This information is not intended to be or should it be relied upon as a complete record or analysis; neither is it an offer nor a solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security mentioned herein.

This firm, Wedbush Securities, its affiliates, officers, employees, members of their families, or any one or more of them, and its discretionary and advisory accounts, may have a position in any security discussed herein or in related securities and may make, from time to time, purchases or sales thereof in the open market or otherwise.

The information and expressions of opinion contained herein are subject to change without further notice.

The herein mentioned securities may be sold to or bought from customers on a principal basis by this firm.

Any reference to past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Supporting documentation will be furnished upon request for any claims, comparisons, recommendation, statistics or other technical data. Additional information with respect to the information contained herein may be obtained upon request.

Applicable disclosure information is also available upon request by contacting the Business Conduct Department at (213) 688-8090. You may also submit a written request to the following: Business Conduct Department, 1000 Wilshire Blvd., Los Angeles, CA 90017.

RESEARCH DEPT. • (213) 688-4505 • www.wedbush.com EQUITY TRADING Los Angeles (213) 688-4470 / (800) 421-0178 * EQUITY SALES Los Angeles (800) 444-8076 CORPORATE HEADQUARTERS (213) 688-8000

PROGRESS REPORT for INTERNET and SOCIAL MEDIAdqkjwx3xr6pzf.cloudfront.net › c154858 › Prism_2_15_12.pdf · Internet and Social Media crystal clear IN THIS ISSUE: Square Turntable.fm

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