Sustainable and Smart City : AUST Summer Course Chapter 1 : Introduc8on “World challenges & Place of the City” Professor Isam SHAHROUR [email protected]
Professor Isam Shahrour Summer Course « Smart and Sustainable City »: Chapter 1 “Global Challenges”, American University of Science and Technology (AUST), Beirut, August 2014.
Nov 29, 2014
This lecture presents the world global challenges (population growth, energy and water stresses, air and soil pollution, greenhouse emission, global warming, population aging, unemployment) and their impact on the City.
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Sustainable and Smart City : AUST Summer Course
Chapter 1 : Introduc8on “World challenges & Place of the City”
Professor Isam SHAHROUR
Isam.shahrour@univ-‐lille1.fr
Q1 : Major world challenges?
Q2 : Place of the City ?
2 Ques8ons
1. World popula8on growth 2. Natural resources 3. Pollu8on 4. Urbanisa8on 5. Socio-‐economic challenges 6. Sustainability
Major world challenges
1. World Popula8on Growth
UN High
UN Medium
UN Low
World Popula8on Growth
Distribu8on of the world popula8on
World popula8on -‐ Urbanisa8on
Neight map
Consequences of the popula8on growth
Increase in: • Consump0on of natural resources (Energy,
water, construc0on materials…) • Food demand • Pollu0on (air, soil, water,..)
Increase demand for : • New construc0ons (housing, services, industry,
…) • Infrastructures (roads, energy, water,
communica0on, waste collec0on and treatment,..)
• Adap0ng exis0ng infrastructures to today requirements.
Consequences of the popula8on growth
Increase demand for services: -‐ Educa0on, -‐ Health, -‐ Transporta0on, logis0c -‐ Culture, Entertainment, -‐ Customized services (old people,..)
Consequences of the popula8on growth
Video A7 A71
Resources : • Water • Energy • Air • Construc0on materials
2. Natural resources
Availability to consumers • Quan0ty • Quality • Transport / Logis0c • Accessibility (poverty)
2. Natural resources Major menaces • World popula0on growth • Limited resources • Over exploita0on • Pollu0on • Provision security • Economic model
Pollu8on -‐ Air -‐ Water -‐ Soils
Food
3. Pollu8on
Drivers : -‐ Buildings (Hea0ng/cooling, ligh0ng,..)
-‐ Transporta0on -‐ Industrial ac0vity -‐ Agriculture
Food
3. Pollu8on Menaces: • Health • Biodiversity • Life quality • Climate change • Global Warming
Food
4. Urbanisa8on
Consequences : -‐ Life quality -‐ Social stability
Issues: -‐ Urban planning -‐ Housing -‐ Public space -‐ Infrastructures -‐ Slums
Food
4. Urbanisa8on
Challenges : • Investment (new infrastructures) • Adap0ng exi0ng infrastructures to today
requirement • Innova0on in technology & management
Energy consump8on increase
OECD : Organiza8on for Economic Co-‐opera8on and Development
Transport
Industry
Buildings
Tokyo (2005)
Mexico (2006)
London (1999)
Shanghai (2007)
Energy Security
Other blackout : • Italy (2003):
$ 55 billions • Indonesia (2005)
$ 100 billions
US Blackout (2003) • 50 Million people • 24 hours for full recovery • Cost: $6 to $10 billion
Nuclear power, the great challenge
Ra8o of Nuclear Power in Electricity genera8on (%)
France Germany
Fukushima Disaster
Air pollu8on Buildings, Transport, industry
Source: USGCRP (2009)
Greenhouse emission
London : Carbon dioxide emissions (2006) Source Great London Authority (2007)
Without avia8on With avia8on
Air pollu8on impact
Kills 2.1 millions / year Economic cost: Europe (2009) : € 170 billion
Air pollu8on impact Climate change and global hea8ng
Soil and water pollu8on Industrial ac8vity -‐ Brownfields
France : Brownfield repar88on
1 billion of the world popula8on do not have access to drinking water service (major health risk,..)
Water Chalenges
Water Chalenges 2.4 billion of the world popula8on do not have access to sewage water service (health and flood risks,..)
Water contamina8on
Water leakage : • 20% of the water supply • in some ci8es about 40%
5. Socio-‐economic challenges
Globaliza8on, the free market economy
Labor costs : operator Hour
25$
1 $
Industrial and service reloca8on
Irvington, New Jersey
Unemployment Consequences on • Economy • Social cohesion • prosperity • Poli8cal stability
Unemployment rate in Europe (2011)
Unemployment rate in France 2011
> 16%
< 2%
Par8cipatory governance
Popula8on ageing
• Re8rement funding • Health and social care • Customized services
Age dependency ra8o (%) : people older than 64/ people between 15-‐64
Popula8on ageing
Lebanon : ?
hap://esa.un.org/unpd/ppp/Figures-‐Output/Popula0on/PPP_Old-‐age-‐Dependency-‐Ra0o.htm
Food
Socio-‐economic challenges
Need for innova8on in • The economic model • Services • Customized services (old people,..) • Governance model
Menaces : • Deteriora0on of the life quality • Social instability
• Spa8al and 8me scales • Environmental, social and economic
interac8on
6. Sustainability issue
Spa8al scale
Household World
Interac8on
Life Quality
Time
Future genera8on
Time scale
1
2
3
Sustainability: Environmental, social and economic interac8on
Q& : Major world challenges?
Q2 : Place of the City ?
2 Ques8ons
• High concentra0on of the world popula0on
• Concentra0on of the economic ac0vity • High energy consump0on • High pollu0on emission • High risk to disasters
Place of the City ?
The city -‐ major role in our world high concentra8on of the popula8on and socio-‐economic ac8vity
• 55% of the World popula8on • France ( > 80%) • Lebanon 85% • 2050 : 70 of the World popula8on
By 2030 : • 400,000 km2 will be constructed for urban
use (doubling the world’s built urban area) • Nearly 2 billion new urban residents • Urban popula0ons of South Asia and Africa
will double
Developing countries : center of urban transforma8on
Ci8es with more than 1 millions inhabitants
Concentration in large cities
The light Map
Concentration in large cities
15 Villes > 15 Millions
30 Villes > 10 Millions
75 villes > 5 Millions
240 Villes > 2 Millions
Concentration in large cities
United States
Asia
Popula8on density in the world
(Habitant/hectare)
Video A4 : Urban popula0on
Slums issue Neza-‐Chalco-‐Itza, Mexico City, 4 Million one of the largest slums in the world.
Slums issue Maharashtra, India, 19 Million
60% of Maharashtra’s popula8on live in slums
Slums issue
The world’s slum popula0on is projected to increase from 777 million in 2000 to somewhere between 889 and 1,477 million in 2020.
Structural Urban Poverty : Slums should be transi0onal places for migra0on from rural to urban economies, rather than pools of structural unemployment and mul0-‐genera0onal poverty.
Ques8on : Are slums a part of the City ?
Video A2
The City : • 70% of the world GDP … • 600 metropolis generate 60% of the world GDP • 95% of the popula0on growth in the developing countries
2.2 Concentra8on of the economic ac8vity
The City : • 70% of the total energy consump0on • 75% of the electrical energy consump0on
2.3 High energy consump8on
Energy consump8on and urban popula8on density
Transport
Industry
Buildings
Tokyo (2005)
Mexico (2006)
London (1999)
Shanghai (2007)
Urban Transport Time lost at rush hour (minutes /hour)
Beyrouth ?
Land Use and Urban Transport
• Access to jobs depends on loca0on and transport services
• Low income ci0zens can spend 15-‐25% of their income on transport (as much as housing)
Buenos Aires • 87% of jobs are accessible in 45 minutes by car, • 23% are accessible in 45 minutes by public transport.
Urban Heat Island
Fig. 25-13 p. 670
The City : 80% of the greenhouse emission
2.4 High pollu8on emission
London
Pollu8on emission
Berkeley Greenhouse emission (2011)
Chicago greenhouse emission reduc8on goal
Ile de France Region : Regional scheme for climate, air and Energy
Sources of greenhouse emission
Energy consump8on
Goal for the energy consump8on Reduc8on
In 2020
In 2050
In the City : 650 million people submiaed to high natural disasters risk
2.5 High risk to disasters
Earthquake China (2009) 90 000 deaths
Flood Thailand (2011) people affected : 3 millions Death : 500 Damage : 46 Billion $
In the City : 650 million people submiaed to high natural disasters risk
2.5 High risk to disasters
Earthquake China (2009) 90 000 deaths
Flood Thailand (2011) people affected : 3 millions Death : 500 Damage : 46 Billion $
Natural disasters
Flood Risk
Earthquake Risk
Storms Risk
Major natural disasters risk : Global ranking
Impact (Na8onal
Scale)
Impact (World Scale)
Major natural disasters risk (Europe)
Impact (Na8onal
Scale)
Impact (World Scale)
Major natural disasters risk (Africa)
Impact (Na8onal
Scale)
Impact (World Scale)
Conclusion
• Degraded environment (air, soil, water, ....) • limited natural resources • Increasing consump0on of resources • Popula0on ageing • Financial crisis
Conclusion • Concentra0on in ci0es (metropolitan ....) • Increase demand for infrastructure • Increase demand for buildings
• Increase demand for services
• Unadapted Infrastructure and buildings to today requirement
• Lack of funding (financial crisis)
Thank you
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