Strategic Approaches to Advancing Evidence Based Policing Lorraine Mazerolle University of Queensland Sydney Summit December 17, 2015 1
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Strategic Approaches
to Advancing
Evidence Based Policing
Lorraine Mazerolle
University of Queensland
Sydney Summit
December 17, 2015
1
Why Evidence Based Policing?
The principle of DO NO HARM
Shrinking police budgets
Greater external scrutiny on police performance (from the
media, politicians, the public, oversight commissions)
Legitimacy of police & policing
The rise (and rise) of Evidence-Based Policing
Overall…police can’t afford to use practices
that have no evidence of success
What is Evidence Based Policing??
“Evidence-based policing is a method of
making decisions about “what works” in
policing: knowing and using practices and
strategies that accomplish police missions
most cost-effectively” (Sherman, 2013).
Three Principles of EBP
• Targeting – requires systematic ranking and
comparison of levels of harm associated with
problematic places, people and situations
• Testing – requires police to review existing evidence or
conduct new experimental tests of police methods to
help chose what works best to reduce harm
• Tracking – requires police to generate and use internal
processes to track the daily delivery and effects of police
practices, including tracking the impact of the practices
on perceptions of police legitimacy
Source: Sherman, L. W. (2013). The rise of evidence-based policing: Targeting, testing, and
tracking. Crime and justice, 42(1), 377-451.
What research shows….
• 80-20 rule – Pareto Principle
• 20% of people, places and situations generate 80% of the
problems
• In fact, 3% of places generate 80% of the problems
• 15% of people generate 80% of problems
• Concentrations of problems are predictable, to a degree
• Concentrations of problems don’t tend to vary from one week
to the next, one month to the next, one year to the next
TAKE HOME MESSAGE: Deploying resources need to be
targeted to the places, people, situations that need them most;
tested to see that they work; and tracked to make sure the
service is delivered as intended
Body Worn Videos (BWV)
• Cost to the police agency to
purchase, train, deploy, store
• Deploy them in the high risk
places, in high risk situations,
with high risk people
• Not all shifts are equal, not all
police beats are equal, not all
officers on the frontline
WHY DO WE NEED TESTS??
A Police Minister recently told a local
newspaper….
“This Body Worn Video technology puts police
safety first and also has benefits for the criminal
justice system and the wider community,” Police
Minister said.
“These benefits include a better conviction rate
[more guilty pleas], a reduction in the number of
assaults on police, a reduction in police
paperwork which means more time on the beat,
increased police transparency and
professionalism.”
The Claims The Evidence
Better conviction rate
[more guilty pleas]
Not measured
Reduction in the number of
assaults on police
Not measured
Reduction in police
paperwork
Not measured
More time on the beat Not measured
Increased police
transparency
Not measured
Increased professionalism Not measured
What we DO know from the one published
randomized field trial….
1. Conducted with the Rialto Police Department
2. 988 police shifts randomly allocated to control (no BWV)
and experimental conditions (BWV)
3. Use of force is reduced by 50% - control shift officers used
twice as much force as experimental shift officers
4. Complaints against police fell by 88% in the year of the
study period compared to the previous year…BUT
5. No difference between the control and experimental shifts
Source: Ariel, Farrar and Sutherland, 2014
Things we still don’t know…1. Is there a better conviction rate? More guilty
pleas?
2. Is there a reduction in the number of assaults on
police?
3. Does it reduce police paperwork?
4. Does it give officers more time on the beat?
5. Does it increase police transparency?
6. Does it increase police professionalism?
Probably.
Imagine this dialogue with a non-
evidence based officer….
Reporter: Your department is spending $4 million on BWV.
Does Body Worn Video reduce the amount of force used by
police?
Police Manager: We have been using Body Worn Videos for
the last year and we think its working pretty well.
Reporter: But how do you know that?
Police Manager: Ummmm…our officers say they feel safer.
Evidence based policing dialogue….Reporter: Your department is spending $4 million on BWV.
Does Body Worn Video reduce police use of force?
Police Manager: We have run a randomized field trial. In that
trial we found that BWV reduce the amount of force used by
police by 50%. That’s good value for money.
Reporter: How can you be sure?
Police Manager: A randomized field trial isolates the unique
effects of the intervention. With 95% confidence, we know that
implementation of the BWV directly reduced the amount of
force used by police by 50%.
When it comes to building your
evidence base, police have been
sold a lemon…
League Table of Scientific Methods
• Experiments - random allocation
• Quasi-experiments - matching, but no random
allocation
• Comparing two groups – one with the intervention and
one without, but with no matching of the groups
• Before-after comparisons, with or without matching
groups
• Correlation between a program & crime
outcome at one single point in time
• All qualitative studies (observations,
interviews, focus groups)
So…
where does a police agency start?
1. Knowing the evidence…where do you go
to get existing evidence?
2. Generating the evidence…how do you
target, test and track?
3. And strategically, what can police agencies
do to re-orientate their organizations into
evidence based policing agencies?
Theme 1:
Accessing Existing
Evidence
Finding existing evidence
• Campbell Collaboration
• Global Policing Database
• Lum-Koper Matrix
• What Works for Crime Reduction
Campbell Collaborationwww.campbellcollaboration.org
• Problem Oriented Policing
• Hotspots Policing
• Interview and Interrogation
Methods
• Stress Management
Methods
• Carrying Firearms
• Focused Deterrence
• Neighborhood Watch
• CCTV
• School Based Programs
• Legitimacy Policing
• DNA Testing
• Second Responders
• Drug Law Enforcement
• Restorative Justice
Conferencing
• Corporate Crime
Deterrence
To come…
Body Worn Cameras
From the Campbell Library…
Doesn’t Work
• Rapid response
• Random patrols
• DARE
• Automatic Number Plate
recognition
• Gunshot detection
technologies
• Mandatory arrest for DV
offenders
• DV second responders
• ‘Scared Straight’
Works
• Hotspots policing
• Police-led restorative
justice
• RBTs
• Legitimacy policing
• Problem oriented policing
• Third Party Policing
• Foot patrol
• COMPSTAT
• Drug Courts
OVERVIEW OF THE GPD
• Web-based and searchable database
• Compiled using systematic review techniques
• Designed to capture all published and unpublished
experimental and quasi-experimental evaluations of
policing interventions conducted since 1950
• No restrictions on type of policing technique
• No restrictions on type of outcome(s) measured
• No restrictions on language
Acknowledgements to: Angela Higginson, Elizabeth Eggins
and Betsy Stanko
POLICING FOCUS
Broad definition of ‘policing intervention’
• Police as primary implementers→ POP, order maintenance policing, hot-spots policing
• Police as intervention partners→ Third Party Policing, Pulling Levers, Community Policing
• Police as recipients of the intervention→ Training and development programs, interventions for officer wellbeing
• Police-related factors and their impact on outcomes→ Organisational structure, HR policies, department size
• Police tools, techniques and technologies
→ Forensic techniques, line-ups, interview protocols and strategies
CRICOS Provider No 00025B
GPD projections
Go to: www.gpd.uq.edu.au
CRICOS Provider No 00025B
Grab of cases in the database
CRICOS Provider No 00025B
Summary per case
CRICOS Provider No 00025B
Output
CRICOS Provider No 00025B
Lum-Koper Matrix
Source: http://cebcp.org/evidence-based-policing/the-matrix/
What Works for Crime Reductionhttp://whatworks.college.police.uk/toolkit
Theme 2:
Producing Your Own
Evidence
Community Engagement Trial
Crime Scene Investigators Trial
Voice 4 Values Recruit Trial
Theme 3:
Organisational Reform
Four Eras of Policing(Adapted from Kelling and Moore)
• Political Era - failure
• Reform/Professional Era - failure
• Community Era – mostly failure
• Evidence-Based Policing Era – knowing
what works, and what doesn’t…and
doing something about it
CRAFT SCIENCE INNOVATION
Building an EBP Agency – Part 1
Sherman’s Ten Ideas1. Evidence Based Policing Unit (EBPU)-20+ FTE and Executive Leadership
2. EBP training at recruit, in-service and leadership levels
3. Leaders to undertake Masters level training
4. Central Registry of EBP Projects
5. Regular, internal invitations for experiments to be conducted
6. Peer review process for policing experiments
7. Embedded criminologists, with PhD level EBP expertise
8. Public EBP website of evidence
9. “Evidence Cops” who make sure QPS practice in line with evidence
10. Annual EBP prizes
Source: Adapted from Sherman, L. W. (2015). A Tipping Point for “Totally Evidenced Policing” Ten
Ideas for Building an Evidence-Based Police Agency. International Criminal Justice Review.
Building an EBP Agency – Part 2
Ten More Ideas11. Facilitate research internships within work units co-ordinated by the EBPU
12. Require Commissioned Officers to contribute to publish their science
13. Systemize the relationship between the EBPU and operational units
14. Create Data Labs & recruit high-end quantitative analysts
15. Identify an ‘EBP Ambassador’ (rock star status e.g Prof Brian Cox)
16. Engage external change auditors to design & manage change management
17. Establish a change agent network via existing Talent Identification Program
18. Embed EBP in everyday business - experiments tied Performance
Development Agreements and/or OPR-like processes
19. Network nationally and internationally with other EBP agencies
20. Initiate, stimulate, foster community demand for EBP
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Lorraine Mazerolle
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