Production systems for the future: balancing trade-offs between food production, efficiency, livelihoods and the environment M. Herrero and P.K. Thornton WCCA/Nairobi Forum Presentation 21 st September 2010 | ILRI, Nairobi Production systems for the future: Balancing trade-offs between food production, livelihoods, efficiency and the environment M. Herrero and P. K. Thornton and many others 5 th World Congress on Conservation Agriculture | 3 rd Farming Systems Symposium 26-29 September 2011, Brisbane, Australia
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Production systems for the future: balancing trade-offs between food production, livelihoods, efficiency and the environment. Mario Herrero
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Production systems for the future: balancing trade-offs between food production,
efficiency, livelihoods and the environment
M. Herrero and P.K. Thornton
WCCA/Nairobi Forum Presentation21st September 2010 | ILRI, Nairobi
Production systems for the future:Balancing trade-offs between food production,
livelihoods, efficiency and the environment
M. Herrero and P. K. Thorntonand many others
5th World Congress on Conservation Agriculture | 3rd Farming Systems Symposium 26-29 September 2011, Brisbane, Australia
Acknowledgements
Many people involved:
P. Havlik, A. Notenbaert, M. Obersteiner, S. Wood, S. Msangi, R. Kruska, J. Dixon, D. Bossio, J. van de Steeg, H. A. Freeman, X. Li, C. Sere, J. McDermott, M. Peters, P. Parthasarathy Rao, D. Enahoro, B. Gerard, G. Nelson, S. Robinson and M. Rosegrant
The challenge ahead
Need to feed 9-10 billion people by 2050 (1/3 more than now)
At a lower environmental cost (roughly the same land, low emissions, water and nutrient use)
In a socially and economically acceptable way (equitably, at the right prices, etc)
Food systems have been changing and are likely to change even more!
How does this translate locally and into an actionable research agenda
W. Africa 1966 – pastoral system 2004 – crop-livestock system
Livelihoods in transition – the target is moving!
Photos courtesy of B. Gerard
Can we influence the next transition for the benefit of society and the environment?
Drivers and trends
Population Growth in Developing and Industrialized Countries: 1750 - 2050
6
7
A strong increase in demand for meat and milk as income grows
0
1
2
3
4
5
4 5 6 7 8 9 11Log per capita GNP
Log
per
cap
ita
con
sum
pti
on
of
meat
Livestock to 2020: The Next Food Revolution, a joint IFPRI, FAO, ILRI study.
10
China
India
Trend
The Livestock Revolution:
Urbanization
8
The demand for livestock products to 2050
Rosegrant et al 2009
Annual per capita consumption
Total consumption
year Meat (kg) Milk (kg) Meat (Mt) Milk (Mt)
Developing 20022050
2844
4478
137326
222585
Developed 20022050
7894
202216
102126
265295
Cereal yields
Increasing….except in Sub-Saharan Africa
World Bank 2007
Area under cultivation and rates of growth in cereal yields
World Bank 2007
A Global Water Crisis 2 billion people
lack access Demand is
growing; freshwater is getting scarce
70 % of total freshwater use is for agriculture
Prices rising
US $ /ton
14 • 3/21/11
Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops, to 2050
Climate changeCrop suitability is changing
What are recent assessments telling us about the future of food production
Food production
Cereals Production
4%14%
35%
2%
45%
AgroPastoral
Mixed Extensive
Mixed Intensive
Other
Developed countries
Mixed systems in the developing world produce almost 50% of the cereals of the World
Most production coming from intensive systems (irrigation, high potential, relatively good market access)
Mixed systems in the developing World produce the food of the poor
Maize Production3%
13%
28%
2%
54%
Millet Production
26%
48%
19%
1% 6%
AgroPastoral
Mixed Extensive
Mixed Intensive
Other
Developed countries
Rice Production3%
20%
66%
5%6%
Sorghum Production3%
44%
20%
2%
31%
7%
13%
17%
4%
59%
Mixed systems produce significant amounts of milk and meat
28%
18%
21%
5%
28%
AgroPastoral
Mixed Extensive
Mixed Intensive
Other
Developed countries
9%
15%
19%
7%
50%
beef milk lamb
Developed countries dominate global milk production, significant exports…but…Mixed systems produce 65% beef, 75% milk and 55% of lamb in the developing World
Mixed intensive systems in the developing World
are under significant pressures
2.5 billion people…3.4 by 2030, predominantly in Asia
150 million cattle increasing to almost 200 million by 2030
Most pigs and significant numbers of poultry, increasing by 30-40% to 2030
Crop yields stagnating: wheat, rice Others increasing: maize (East Asia) All in the same land!
Severe water constraints in some places Soil fertility problems, shrinking farm sizes in others
Mixed intensive systems in the developing World
are under significant pressures (2)
Population density*(people/km2) 2000 2030
agro-pastoral 8 14
mixed extensive 79 112
mixed intensive 273 371
other 28 41
* Baseline scenario
Rates of cereal production diminishing in places due to water and other constraints
Annual changes in Cereal Production2000 - 2030
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
CSA EA SA SEA SSA WANA Total
%
AgroPastoral Mixed Extensive Mixed Intensive Other Developed countries
Rates of growth of mixed intensive similar to developed countriesCatching up
Rates lower than those of population growth
Herrero et al 2009
…but rates of production of animal products are increasing at significantly faster rates….
Annual rates of change - beef production 2000-2030
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
CSA EA SA SEA SSA WANA Total
%
AgroPastoral Mixed Extensive Mixed Intensive Other Developed countries
Annual rates of change - milk production 2000-2030
0123456789
CSA EA SA SEA SSA WANA Total
%
AgroPastoral Mixed Extensive Mixed Intensive Other Developed countries
Increased consumptionIncreased incomes
…but increased pressure on resources (land, feeds, etc)
Some industrialisation….
The world will require 1 billion tonnes of additional cereal grains to 2050 to meet food and feed demands (IAASTD 2009)
Grains1048 million tonnes
more to 2050
humanconsumption
458 million MT
Livestock430 million MT
Monogastrics mostly
biofuels160 million MT
Projected land use changes to 2050 in several integrated assessments (Smith et al 2010)
Cropland+10 to 20%
Rangeland avg = 10%
Natural habitats0 to -20%
Cropland area increasing at a faster rate than rangelands
Faster expansion of monogastric production and intensification of ruminant production with grains
Stover deficits likely to occur in the futureHerrero et al. 2009
Significant biomass flikely to increase prices of food feed crops
grains
livestockproducts
humanconsumption
livestock
energy
-50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
beefporklamb
poultryeggsmilkrice
wheatmaize
oil grainssoybeans
potatossweet potatos
cassavasugar cane
milletsorghumchickpea
pigeon peagroundnut
% change from 2000
reference 2030
biofuels 2030
Monogastrics mostly+ ruminants
Further increases?
‘Moving megajoules’: fodder markets are likely to expand in areas of feed deficits as demand for milk and meat increases
India quotes from M Blummel
‘Stovers transported morethan 400 km to be sold’
‘Price has doubled in 5 years, now 2/3 of grain value of sorghum’
‘Farmers paying for stoverquality’
Herrero et al. 2009
Some systems may need to de-intensify or stop growing to ensure the sustainability of agro-ecosystems
Creation of incentives to protect the environment required
Equitable, ‘smart’ schemes for payments for environmental services
Need significant efficiency gains (in crops, in livestock, in other sectors)
Need to understand better what sustainable intensification is
Important productivity gains could be made in the more extensive mixed rainfed areas
Less pressure on the land Population density*(people/km2) 2000 2030
agro-pastoral 8 14
mixed extensive 79 112
mixed intensive 273 371
other 28 41
Yield gaps still large
Public investment required to reduce transaction costs, increase service provision and improve risk management
These systems could turn in ‘providers’ of agro-ecosystems services to other systems (i.e. fodder for the mixed intensive systems)
Maize crop in Rajasthan, India during rainy season 2009