PROBLEMS OF EXTREME HYDROLOGICAL PHENOMENA IN SIBERIA Oleg F. Vasiliev

INTAS Strategic Scientific Workshop «Towards integrated multidisciplinary study of the Northern Eurasia climatic Hot Spots»

Tomsk 2004

PROBLEMS OF EXTREME HYDROLOGICAL PHENOMENA IN SIBERIA

Oleg F. Vasiliev (Institute for Water and Environmental Problems, SB RAS, Novosibirsk)


Tomsk 2004


Tomsk 2004

OB RIVER BASIN

River Length, km

Watershed area,

103 km2

Mean annual

runoff, km3

Ob (from the source of Irtysh)

5410 2990 408,0

Irtysh 4248 1600 90,0

Tom 827 52 34,1


Tomsk 2004


Tomsk 2004

EXTREME HYDROLOGICAL EVENTS IN SIBERIA FOR THE LAST YEARS

Lena River , 1998 and 2001

18 May, 1988 – maximum water level 1702 sm for period of observationDamage 7,000,000,000 rub

18 May, 2001 – maximum water level 2012 sm

South of the West Siberia, April 2004 Floods in the Tom, Abakan, Biya, Ob river basins due to heavy rains

In the Tom River basin: Kondoma river (Kuzdeevo) maximum water level for period of observation from 19316000 houses have been damaged, 10 people have died

Damage – 700,000,000 rubAbakan River (Abaza) – rain flood – water level rising – ice jam

Yenisei RiverReservoirs of Yenisei Hydropower Stations, April 2004

Heavy rain – inflow to Sayano-Shushenskoye Reservoir 3380 m3/s (normal 2570)– inflow to Krasnoyarskoye Reservoir 3820 m3/s (normal 3100)

Yenisei, June 1988 (the highest flood)– Abakan River – max discharge more than 5000 m3/s

– Total Inflow to Krasnoyarskoye Reservoir and outflow from it during rising of flood have increased from 4000 to 12600 m3/s, downstream water level have been increased on 4 m.

Damage 50,000,000 $

Flooding in the streatch of

the Ob River near Barnaul (April 2004)

(Images made by MODIS at NASA)


Tomsk 2004


Tomsk 2004

Program of Fundamental Studies of the RAS Presidium

“ENVIRONMENTAL AND CLIMATIC CHANGE: NATURAL DISASTERS”

Project N 13/15: ANALYSIS AND MODELING OF EXTREME HYDROLOGICAL PHENOMENA IN SIBERIAN ENVIRONMENT

1. Institute for Water and Environmental Problems, SB RAS, Barnaul/Novosibirsk

2. Institute of Geography, SB RAS, Irkutsk

3. Institute of Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Geophysics, SB RAS, Novosibirsk

4. Lavrentyev Institute of Hydrodynamics, SB RAS, Novosibirsk

5. Institute of Mathematics, SB RAS, Novosibirsk

6. Institute of Petroleum and Gas Problems, SB RAS, Yakutsk

7. Institute of the Physical-Technological Problems of the North of SB RAS, Yakutsk

8. Institute of Petroleum Chemistry, SB RAS, Tomsk

9. Novosibirsk State University of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Novosibirsk

10. Siberian Hydrometeorological Research Institute, Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring – ROSHYDROMET, Novosibirsk


Tomsk 2004

NATO ADVANCED RESEARCH WORKSHOP

EXTREME HYDROLOGICAL EVENTS: NEW CONCEPTS FOR SECURITY11-15 July, 2005, Novosibirsk, RUSSIA

Co-Directors: Prof. Johannes K. VRIJLING, TU Delft, the NetherlandsProf. Oleg F. VASILIEV, SB RAS, Russia

MAIN TOPICS:1. Genesis (physical mechanisms) of floods: initiation and formation2. Stochastic models of maximum and minimum runoff 3. The probability of maximum possible floods (the PMF theory) and other extreme hydrologic events4. Floods caused by ice phenomena5. Engineering and non-engineering methods of the flood control

and management6. Operational forecasting of floods7. Risk assessment for floods, low water events and damages related to them; vulnerability issues8. Floods, draughts and the environmental security9. Extreme hydrological phenomena and climate


Tomsk 2004

APPROACH TO THE PROBLEM

1. Climatology vers Hydrology

2. Hydrologic cycle

3. Change of water balance and the runoff from a river basin

4. Extreme Hydrologic Phenomena

5. How can climatic Hot Spots exert influence on hydrologic systems and their behaviour?

6. Drought Research and management

7. Conclusion


Tomsk 2004

2. HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE

P – E – T – F– R = ΔS, (1)

Hence SURFACE RUNOFF

R = P – E – T – F – ΔS (2)

Similar interrelations can be written for the balance of ground waters.

SURFACE WATER BALANCE EQUATION

1. CLIMATOLOGY VERS HYDROLOGY

P – precipitation, E – evaporation, T- transpirationF – infiltration, R – surface runoff outflow, ΔS – change in storage.

Local (regional, mesoscale) climatic changes vers

hydrologic changes and anomalies (in river basin scale)


Tomsk 2004

3. CHANGE OF WATER BALANCE AND THE RUNOFF

FROM A RIVER BASIN AS:

● the response of hydrologic system to a climatic change

through changes of

− characteristic temperatures of air and soils

− atmospheric precipitations (rains and snow)

− evaporation and transpiration

● the indicator of climatic changers in a river basin (an integrated

indicator)


Tomsk 2004

4. EXTREME HYDROLOGIC PHENOMENA are generally

caused by extreme meteorological conditions. In particular, it

is usually relevant with respect to floods and low-water flows

in rivers. Mostly an origin of such events can result from an

abnormal relationship between the main components of the

water balances either surface or ground waters.


Tomsk 2004

5. HOW CAN CLIMATIC HOT SPOTS EXERT INFLUENCE ON

HYDROLOGIC SYSTEMS AND THEIR BEHAVIOUR?

A locus and spread of Hot Spot are determined from non-homogeneity of the

fields of climatic characteristics in space and time (such as temperature fields etc.) If the

watershed of a river is covered completely or partially by a Hot Spot it must result in its

water balance and hence in a river runoff.

Actually, such components of water budget as an atmospheric precipitation and

evapotranspiration strongly depend on the meteorological conditions. For example, both

evaporation and transpiration depend very much on atmospheric temperature , wind,

radiation expose. Therefore the change of climatic conditions well lead to a change of

runoff of surface water from a river basin.

The infiltration of surface water to ground layers can be also affected, as well as

the balance of ground waters. It result in a change of runoff of ground water to a drainage

river system.

Note that the inflow of ground water to rivers is a major contribution to a winter

river runoff in the zones with moderate climate.


Tomsk 2004

TOM RIVER BASIN


Tomsk 2004

6. Drought Research and Management

This very important topic is directly related to a concept of the project that is

being considered here.

7. Conclusion

There are good grounds to state that the problem of climatic Hot Spots is

tightly related to the most actual problems of modern Hydrology including

issue of Extreme Hydrologic Phenomena

PROBLEMS OF EXTREME HYDROLOGICAL PHENOMENA IN SIBERIA Oleg F. Vasiliev

Documents

north of sb ras

institute of mathematics

ras presidiumenvironmental

vasiliev institute

institute of geography

climatic change

downstream water level

ob river basins