Probabilistic Volatility in the Western Interconnection Matthew Elkins.

Probabilistic Volatility in the Western Interconnection

Matthew Elkins

2

100

99

10,000

Matt

A Theory on Relativity

99

3

24,99925,00099?

Deterministic

Probabilistic

Definition of the Denominator

4

Applied to Electricity

25,000Expected

Generation

5

Probability Distribution

6

Expected Margin

Margin 25%

7

Reduced Margin

8

Reduced Margin

Margin 5%

9

Probabilities

10

Reduced Margin

11

~50%

Independent ProbabilityP(A) * P(B)

~50% X ~50% = ~25%

MW

Vulnerabilities

12

Risk Analysis

13

Increased Supply Variability

Generation OutagesTransmission OutagesFuel AdequacyMisoperations

14

Increased Risk

15

Increased Risk