Prisoners of Geography: Ten Maps That Explain Everything About the World

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CONTENTS

Introduction

1Russia

2China

3UnitedStates

4WesternEurope

5Africa

6TheMiddleEast

7IndiaandPakistan

8KoreaandJapan

9LatinAmerica

10TheArctic

Conclusion

Acknowledgments

AbouttheAuthor

Bibliography

Index

ToJoannaSimone:“L’histoiredemavie—c’esttoi.”

INTRODUCTION

VladimirPutinsaysheisareligiousman,agreatsupporteroftheRussianOrthodoxChurch.Ifso,hemaywellgotobedeachnight,sayhisprayers,andaskGod:“Whydidn’tyouputsomemountainsinUkraine?”

If God had built mountains in Ukraine, then the great expanse of flatland that is the NorthEuropeanPlainwouldnotbesuchencouragingterritoryfromwhichtoattackRussiarepeatedly.Asitis,Putinhasnochoice:hemustatleastattempttocontroltheflatlandstothewest.Soitiswithallnations,bigorsmall.Thelandscapeimprisonstheirleaders,givingthemfewerchoicesandlessroomto maneuver than you might think. This was true of the Athenian Empire, the Persians, theBabylonians,andbefore;itwastrueofeveryleaderseekinghighgroundfromwhichtoprotecttheirtribe.

Thelandonwhichwelivehasalwaysshapedus.Ithasshapedthewars,thepower,politics,andsocialdevelopmentofthepeoplesthatnowinhabitnearlyeverypartoftheearth.Technologymayseemtoovercomethedistancesbetweenusinbothmentalandphysicalspace,butitiseasytoforgetthatthelandwherewelive,work,andraiseourchildrenishugelyimportantandthatthechoicesofthosewholeadthesevenbillioninhabitantsofthisplanetwilltosomedegreealwaysbeshapedbytherivers,mountains,deserts,lakes,andseasthatconstrainusall—astheyalwayshave.

Overallthereisnoonegeographicalfactorthatismoreimportantthananyother.Mountainsarenomore important than deserts, nor rivers than jungles. In different parts of the planet differentgeographicalfeaturesareamongthedominantfactorsindeterminingwhatpeoplecanandcannotdo.

Broadly speaking, geopolitics looksat theways inwhich international affairs canbeunderstoodthroughgeographical factors:not just thephysical landscape—thenaturalbarriersofmountainsorconnections of river networks, for example—but also climate, demographics, cultural regions, andaccess tonatural resources.Factors suchas thesecanhavean important impactonmanydifferentaspects of our civilization, from political and military strategy to human social development,includinglanguage,trade,andreligion.

Thephysicalrealitiesthatunderpinnationalandinternationalpoliticsaretoooftendisregardedinbothwritingabouthistoryandincontemporaryreportingofworldaffairs.Geographyisclearlyafundamentalpartofthe“why”aswellasthe“what.”Take,forexample,ChinaandIndia:twomassivecountrieswith huge populations that share a very long border but are not politically or culturallyaligned.Itwouldn’tbesurprisingifthesetwogiantshadfoughteachotherinseveralwars,butinfact,apart from one monthlong battle in 1962, they never have. Why? Because between them is thehighest mountain range in the world, and it is practically impossible to advance large militarycolumnsthroughorovertheHimalayas.Astechnologybecomesmoresophisticated,ofcourse,waysareemergingofovercomingthisobstacle,butthephysicalbarrierremainsadeterrent,andsobothcountriesfocustheirforeignpolicyonotherregions,whilekeepingawaryeyeoneachother.

Individualleaders,ideas,technology,andotherfactorsallplayaroleinshapingevents,buttheyare temporary. Each new generationwill still face the physical obstructions created by theHinduKushandtheHimalayas,thechallengescreatedbytherainyseason,andthedisadvantagesoflimitedaccesstonaturalmineralsorfoodsources.

I first became interested in this subjectwhen covering thewars in theBalkans in the 1990s. Iwatched close at hand as the leaders of various peoples, be they Serbian, Croat, or Bosniak,deliberatelyremindedtheir“tribes”oftheancientdivisionsand,yes,ancientsuspicionsinaregioncrowdedwith diversity.Once theyhad pulled the peoples apart, it didn’t takemuch to then pushthemagainsteachother.

TheRiver Ibar in Kosovo is a prime example.Ottoman rule over Serbia was cemented by theBattleofKosovoPoljein1389,foughtnearwheretheIbarflowsthroughthecityofMitrovica.OverthefollowingcenturiestheSerbpopulationbegantowithdrawbehindtheIbarasMuslimAlbaniansgradually descended from the mountainous Malesija region into Kosovo, where they became amajoritybythemid-eighteenthcentury.Fast-forwardtothetwentiethcenturyandtherewasstillaclearethnic-religiousdivisionroughlymarkedbytheriver.Thenin1999,batteredbyNATOfromthe air and theKosovoLiberationArmyon the ground, theYugoslav (Serbian)military retreatedacrosstheIbar,quicklyfollowedbymostoftheremainingSerbpopulation.TheriverbecamethedefactoborderofwhatsomecountriesnowrecognizeastheindependentstateofKosovo.

MitrovicawasalsowheretheadvancingNATOgroundforcescametoahalt.Duringthethree-monthwar,therehadbeenveiledthreatsthatNATOintendedtoinvadeallofSerbia.Intruth,therestraints of both geography and politics meant the NATO leaders never really had that option.Hungaryhadmadeitclearthatitwouldnotallowaninvasionfromitsterritory,asitfearedreprisalsagainstthe350,000ethnicHungariansinnorthernSerbia.Thealternativewasaninvasionfromthesouth,whichwouldhavegottenthemtotheIbarindouble-quicktime;butNATOwouldthenhavefacedthemountainsabovethem.

IwasworkingwithateamofSerbsinBelgradeatthetimeandaskedwhatwouldhappenifNATOcame:“Wewillputourcamerasdown,Tim,andpickupguns”wastheresponse.Theywere liberalSerbs,goodfriendsofmineandopposedtotheirgovernment,buttheystillpulledoutthemapsandshowedmewheretheSerbswoulddefendtheirterritoryinthemountains,andwhereNATOwouldgrindtoahalt.ItwassomerelieftobegivenageographylessoninwhyNATO’schoicesweremorelimitedthantheBrusselsPRmachinemadepublic.

An understanding of how crucial the physical landscape was in reporting news in the Balkansstoodmeingoodsteadintheyearsthatfollowed.Forexample,in2001,afewweeksafter9/11,Isawa demonstration of how, even with today’s modern technology, climate still dictates the militarypossibilitiesofeventheworld’smostpowerfularmies.IwasinnorthernAfghanistan,havingcrossedthe border river fromTajikistan on a raft, in order to link up with theNorthernAlliance (NA)troopswhowerefightingtheTaliban.

TheAmerican fighter jets andbomberswere alreadyoverhead, poundingTaliban and al-Qaedapositionsonthecold,dustyplainsandhillseastofMazar-e-Sharif inordertopavethewayfortheadvanceonKabul.AfterafewweeksitwasobviousthattheNAweregearinguptomovesouth.Andthentheworldchangedcolor.

ThemostintensesandstormIhaveeverexperiencedblewin,turningeverythingamustard-yellowcolor.Attheheightofthestormyoucouldn’tseemorethanafewyardsaheadofyou,andtheonlythingclearwasthattheAmericans’satellitetechnology,atthecuttingedgeofscience,washelpless,blindinthefaceoftheclimateofthiswildland.Everyone,fromPresidentBushandtheJointChiefs

ofStafftotheNAtroopsontheground,justhadtowait.Thenitrainedandthesandthathadsettledoneverythingturnedintomud.Theraincamedownsohardthatthebaked-mudhutswewerelivinginlookedasiftheyweremelting.Againitwasclearthatthemovesouthwasonholduntilgeographyfinishedhavingitssay.Therulesofgeography,whichHannibal,SunTzu,andAlexandertheGreatallknew,stillapplytotoday’sleaders.

More recently, in2012, Iwasgivenanother lesson ingeostrategy:AsSyriadescended into full-blowncivilwar,IwasstandingonaSyrianhilltopoverlookingavalleysouthofthecityofHamaandsawahamletburninginthedistance.Syrianfriendspointedoutamuchlargervillageaboutamileaway, fromwhere they said the attackhad come.They then explained that if one side couldpushenoughpeople fromtheother factionoutof thevalley, thenthevalleycouldbe joinedontootherlandthat ledtothecountry’sonlymotorway,andassuchwouldbeuseful incarvingoutapieceofcontiguous,viableterritorythatonedaycouldbeusedtocreateamini-stateletifSyriacouldnotbeput back together again.Where before I saw only a burning hamlet, I could now see its strategicimportanceandunderstandhowpoliticalrealitiesareshapedbythemostbasicphysicalrealities.

Geopoliticsaffectseverycountry,whetheratwar,asintheexamplesabove,oratpeace.Therewillbe instances in every region you can name. In these pages I cannot explore each one: Canada,Australia, and Indonesia, amongothers, getnomore thanabriefmention, althoughawholebookcouldbedevotedtoAustraliaaloneandthewaysinwhichitsgeographyhasshapeditsconnectionswithotherpartsoftheworld,bothphysicallyandculturally.InsteadIhavefocusedonthepowersandregionsthatbestillustratethekeypointsofthebook,coveringthelegacyofgeopoliticsfromthepast(nation-forming);themostpressingsituationswefacetoday(thetroublesinUkraine,theexpandinginfluenceofChina);andlookingtothefuture(growingcompetitionintheArctic).

InRussiaweseetheinfluenceoftheArctic,andhowitlimitsRussia’sabilitytobeatrulyglobalpower.InChinaweseethelimitationsofpowerwithoutaglobalnavy.ThechapterontheUnitedStatesillustrateshowshrewddecisionstoexpanditsterritoryinkeyregionsallowedittoachieveitsmoderndestinyasatwo-oceansuperpower.Europeshowsusthevalueofflatlandandnavigableriversinconnectingregionsandproducingacultureabletokick-startthemodernworld,whileAfricaisaprimeexampleoftheeffectsofisolation.

ThechapterontheMiddleEastdemonstrateswhydrawinglinesonmapswhiledisregardingthetopographyand,equally important,thegeographicalcultures inagivenareaisarecipefortrouble.Wewillcontinuetowitness thattroublethiscentury.Thesamethemesurfaces inthechaptersonAfricaand India/Pakistan.Thecolonialpowersused ink todraw lines thatboreno relation to thephysicalrealitiesoftheregion,andcreatedsomeofthemostartificialborderstheworldhasseen.IntheMiddleEast,anattemptisnowbeingmadetoredrawtheminblood.

VerydifferentfromtheexamplesofKosovoorSyriaareJapanandKorea,inthattheyaremostlyethnicallyhomogenous.But theyhaveother problems: Japan is an islandnationdevoidofnaturalresources,whilethedivisionoftheKoreasisaproblemstillwaitingtobesolved.Meanwhile,LatinAmericaisananomaly.Initsfarsouthitissocutoff fromtheoutsideworldthatglobaltradingisdifficult,anditsinternalgeographyisabarriertocreatingatradingblocassuccessfulastheEU.

Finally, we come to one of the most uninhabitable places on earth—the Arctic. For most ofhistory, humanshave ignored it, but in the twentieth centurywe found energy there, and twenty-first-centurydiplomacywilldeterminewhoowns—andsells—thatresource.

Seeinggeographyasadecisivefactorinthecourseofhumanhistorycanbeconstruedasableakviewof theworld,which iswhy it isdisliked in some intellectualcircles. It suggests thatnature ismorepowerfulthanmanandthatwecangoonlysofarindeterminingourownfate.However,other

factorsclearlyhaveaninfluenceonevents,too.Anysensiblepersoncanseethattechnologyisnowbendingtheironrulesofgeography.Ithasfoundwaysover,under,orthroughsomeofthebarriers.The Americans can now fly a plane all the way from Missouri to Mosul on a bombing missionwithoutneedingto landtorefuel.That,alongwiththeirgreataircraftcarrierbattlegroups,meansthey no longer absolutely have to have an ally or a colony in order to extend their global reacharoundtheworld.Ofcourse,iftheydohaveanairbaseontheislandofDiegoGarcia,orpermanentaccesstotheportinBahrain,thentheyhavemoreoptions;butitislessessential.

Soairpowerhaschangedtherules,as,inadifferentway,hastheInternet.Butgeography,andthehistory of how nations have established themselves within that geography, remains crucial to ourunderstandingoftheworldtodayandtoourfuture.

TheconflictinIraqandSyriaisrootedincolonialpowersignoringtherulesofgeography,whereasthe Chinese occupation of Tibet is rooted in obeying them. America’s global foreign policy isdictatedbythem,andeventhepowerprojectionof the last superpowerstandingcanonlymitigatetherulesthatnature,orGod,handeddown.

Whatarethoserules?Theplacetobeginisinthelandwherepowerishardtodefend,andsoforcenturies its leadershavecompensatedbypushingoutward. It is the landwithoutmountains to itswest:Russia.

1

RUSSIA

Vast,vaster,vastest(adj):ofverygreatareaorextent;immense

Russiaisvast.Itisthevastest.Immense.Itissix-million-square-milesvast,eleventimezonesvast;itisthelargestcountryintheworld.

Itsforests,lakes,rivers,frozentundra,steppe,taiga,andmountainsareallvast.Thissizehaslongseepedintoourcollectiveconscious.Whereverweare,thereisRussia,perhapstooureast,orwest,toournorthorsouth—butthereistheRussianBear.

It is no coincidence that the bear is the symbol of this immense size. There it sits, sometimeshibernating,sometimesgrowling,majestic,butferocious.BearisaRussianword,buttheRussiansarealso wary of calling this animal by its name, fearful of conjuring up its darker side. They call itmedved,“theonewholikeshoney.”

Atleast120,000ofthesemedvedsliveinacountrythatbestridesEuropeandAsia.TothewestoftheUralMountainsisEuropeanRussia.TotheireastisSiberia,stretchingallthewaytotheBeringSeaandthePacificOcean.Eveninthetwenty-firstcentury,tocrossitbytraintakessixdays.Russia’sleadersmustlookacrossthesedistances,anddifferences,andformulatepolicyaccordingly;forseveralcenturiesnowtheyhavelookedinalldirections,butconcentratedmostlywestward.

When writers seek to get to the heart of the bear they often use Winston Churchill’s famousobservationofRussia,madein1939:“Itisariddlewrappedinamysteryinsideanenigma,”butfewgoontocomplete the sentence,whichends“butperhaps there isakey.Thatkey isRussian nationalinterest.” Seven years later he used that key to unlock his version of the answer to the riddle,asserting, “I am convinced that there is nothing they admire so much as strength, and there isnothingforwhichtheyhavelessrespectthanforweakness,especiallymilitaryweakness.”

He could have been talking about the current Russian leadership, which despite being nowwrappedinthecloakofdemocracy,remainsauthoritarianinitsnaturewithnationalintereststillatitscore.

When Vladimir Putin isn’t thinking about God, and mountains, he’s thinking about pizza. Inparticular,theshapeofasliceofpizza—awedge.

ThethinendofthiswedgeisPoland.Here,thevastNorthEuropeanPlainstretchingfromFranceto theUrals (which extend a thousandmiles south tonorth, forming a natural boundary betweenEuropeandAsia)isonlythreehundredmileswide.ItrunsfromtheBalticSeainthenorthtotheCarpathian Mountains in the south. The North European Plain encompasses all of western andnorthernFrance,Belgium,theNetherlands,northernGermany,andnearlyallofPoland.

From a Russian perspective this is a double-edged sword. Poland represents a relatively narrowcorridorintowhichRussiacoulddriveitsarmedforcesifnecessaryandthuspreventanenemyfromadvancingtowardMoscow.Butfromthispointthewedgebeginstobroaden;bythetimeyougetto

Russia’s borders it is more than two thousand miles wide, and is flat all the way to Moscow andbeyond. Even with a large army you would be hard-pressed to defend in strength along this line.However,Russiahasneverbeenconqueredfromthisdirectionpartiallyduetoitsstrategicdepth.BythetimeanarmyapproachesMoscowitalreadyhasunsustainablylongsupplylines,amistakethatNapoleonmadein1812,andthatHitlerrepeatedin1941.

Likewise, in theRussianFarEast it is geography that protectsRussia. It is difficult tomove anarmyfromAsiaupintoAsianRussia;there’snotmuchtoattackexceptforsnowandyoucouldgetonly as far as theUrals. You would then end up holding amassive piece of territory, in difficultconditions,withlongsupplylinesandtheever-presentriskofacounterattack.

YoumightthinkthatnooneisintentoninvadingRussia,butthatisnothowtheRussiansseeit,andwithgoodreason.Inthepastfivehundredyearstheyhavebeeninvadedseveraltimesfromthewest.ThePolescameacrosstheNorthEuropeanPlainin1605,followedbytheSwedesunderCharlesXII in1708, theFrenchunderNapoleon in1812,andtheGermans—twice, inbothworldwars, in1914and1941.Lookingat itanotherway, ifyoucount fromNapoleon’s invasionof1812,butthistimeincludetheCrimeanWarof1853–56andthetwoworldwarsupto1945,thentheRussianswerefightingonaverageinoraroundtheNorthEuropeanPlainonceeverythirty-threeyears.

AttheendoftheSecondWorldWarin1945,theRussiansoccupiedtheterritoryconqueredfromGermany in Central and Eastern Europe, some of which then became part of the USSR, as itincreasingly began to resemble the old Russian empire. In 1949, the North Atlantic TreatyOrganization(NATO)wasformedbyanassociationofEuropeanandNorthAmericanstates,forthedefenseofEuropeandtheNorthAtlanticagainstthedangerofSovietaggression.Inresponse,mostoftheCommuniststatesofEurope—underRussianleadership—formedtheWarsawPactin1955,atreaty for military defense and mutual aid. The pact was supposed to be made of iron, but withhindsight,bytheearly1980sitwasrusting,andafterthefalloftheBerlinWallin1989itcrumbledtodust.

President Putin is no fan of the last Soviet president,Mikhail Gorbachev. He blames him forunderminingRussiansecurityandhasreferredtothebreakupoftheformerSovietUnionduringthe1990sasa“majorgeopoliticaldisasterofthecentury.”

SincethentheRussianshavewatchedanxiouslyasNATOhascreptsteadilycloser,incorporatingcountriesthatRussiaclaimsitwaspromisedwouldnotbejoining:theCzechRepublic,Hungary,andPolandin1999;Bulgaria,Estonia,Latvia,Lithuania,Romania,andSlovakiain2004;andAlbaniain2009.NATOsaysnosuchassurancesweregiven.

Russia, likeallgreatpowers, isthinkingintermsofthenextonehundredyearsandunderstandsthat in that time anything could happen. A century ago, who could have guessed thatAmericanarmedforceswouldbestationedafewhundredmilesfromMoscowinPolandandtheBalticStates?By2004,justfifteenyearsafter1989,everysingleformerWarsawPactstatebarRussiawasinNATOortheEuropeanUnion.

TheMoscowadministration’smindhasbeenconcentratedbythat,andbyRussia’shistory.Russia as a conceptdatesback to theninth century anda loose federationofEastSlavic tribes

knownasKievanRus,whichwasbasedinKievandothertownsalongtheDnieperRiver,inwhatisnowUkraine.TheMongols,expandingtheirempire,continuallyattackedtheregionfromthesouthand east, eventually overrunning it in the thirteenth century.The fledglingRussia then relocatednortheastinandaroundthecityofMoscow.ThisearlyRussia,knownastheGrandPrincipalityofMuscovy,wasindefensible.Therewerenomountains,nodeserts,andfewrivers.Inalldirectionslay

flatland,andacrossthesteppetothesouthandeastweretheMongols.Theinvadercouldadvanceataplaceofhischoosing,andtherewerefewnaturaldefensivepositionstooccupy.

EnterIvantheTerrible,thefirsttsar.Heputintopracticetheconceptofattackasdefense—i.e.,beginningyourexpansionbyconsolidatingathomeandthenmovingoutward.Thisledtogreatness.Here was a man to give support to the theory that individuals can change history. Without hischaracter,ofbothutterruthlessnessandvision,Russianhistorywouldbedifferent.

The fledglingRussiahadbegunamoderateexpansionunder Ivan’s grandfather, Ivan theGreat,butthatexpansionacceleratedafterhecametopowerin1533.ItencroachedeastontheUrals,southtotheCaspianSea,andnorthtowardtheArcticCircle.ItgainedaccesstotheCaspian,andlatertheBlackSea,thustakingadvantageoftheCaucasusMountainsasapartialbarrierbetweenitandtheMongols.AmilitarybasewasbuiltinChechnyatodeteranywould-beattacker,betheytheMongolGoldenHorde,theOttomanEmpire,orthePersians.

Therewere setbacks, butover thenext centuryRussiawouldpushpast theUrals andedge intoSiberia,eventuallyincorporatingallthelandtothePacificcoastfartotheeast.

NowtheRussianshadapartialbufferzoneandahinterland—strategicdepth—somewheretofallbacktointhecaseofinvasion.NoonewasgoingtoattacktheminforcefromtheArcticSea,norfighttheirwayovertheUralstogettothem.TheirlandwasbecomingwhatwenowknowasRussia,andtogettoitfromthesouthorsoutheastyouhadtohaveahugearmyandaverylongsupplylineandyouhadtofightyourwaypastdefensivepositions.

In the eighteenth century, Russia, under Peter theGreat—who founded theRussian Empire in1721—and thenEmpressCatherine theGreat, lookedwestward, expanding the empire to becomeone of the great powers of Europe, driven chiefly by trade and nationalism. A more secure andpowerfulRussiawasnowabletooccupyUkraineandreachtheCarpathianMountains.Ittookovermost of what we now know as the Baltic States—Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. Thus it wasprotectedfromanyincursionvialandthatway,orfromtheBalticSea.

Now there was a huge ring around Moscow that was the heart of the country. Starting at theArctic,itcamedownthroughtheBalticregion,acrossUkraine,thentheCarpathians,theBlackSea,theCaucasus,andtheCaspian,swingingbackaroundtotheUrals,whichstretcheduptotheArcticCircle.

In the twentieth century,Communist Russia created the SovietUnion. Behind the rhetoric of“WorkersoftheWorldUnite”theUSSRwassimplytheRussianEmpirewritlarge.AftertheSecondWorldWaritstretchedfromthePacifictoBerlin,fromtheArctictothebordersofAfghanistan—asuperpowereconomically,politically,andmilitarily,rivaledonlybytheUnitedStates.

Howbigisthebiggestcountryintheworld?RussiaistwicethesizeoftheUnitedStatesorChina,fivetimesthesizeofIndia,twenty-fivetimesthesizeoftheUK.However,ithasarelativelysmallpopulation (144million), fewer people thanNigeria orPakistan. Its agricultural growing season isshort and it struggles to adequately distribute what is grown around the eleven time zones thatMoscowgoverns.

Russia,uptotheUrals,isaEuropeanpowerinsofarasitborderstheEuropeanlandmass,butitisnotanAsianpowerdespiteborderingKazakhstan,Mongolia,China, andNorthKorea, andhavingmaritimeborderswithseveralcountries,includingJapanandtheUnitedStates.

FormerUSvicepresidentialcandidateSarahPalinwasmockedwhenshewasreportedassaying“YoucanactuallyseeRussiafromlandhereinAlaska,”alinewhichmorphedinmediacoverageto“YoucanseeRussiafrommyhouse.”Whatshereallysaidwas“YoucanseeRussiafromlandhereinAlaska,fromanislandinAlaska.”Shewasright.ARussianislandintheBeringStraitistwoanda

halfmiles fromanAmerican island in theStrait,LittleDiomedeIsland,andcanbe seenwiththenakedeye.YoucanindeedseeRussiafromAmerica.

HighupintheUralsthereisacrossmarkingtheplacewhereEuropestopsandAsiastarts.Whentheskiesareclear,itisabeautifulspotandyoucanseethroughthefirtreesformilestowardtheeast.Inwinteritissnow-covered,asistheSiberianPlainyouseebelowyoustretchingtowardthecityofYekaterinburg.TouristsliketovisittoputonefootinEuropeandoneinAsia.Itisareminderofjusthow big Russia is when you realize that the cross is placed merely a quarter of the way into thecountry.Youmayhavetraveled1,500milesfromSaintPetersburg,throughwesternRussia,togettothe Urals, but you still have another 4,500 miles to go before reaching the Bering Strait, and apossiblesightingofMrs.Palin,acrossfromAlaskaintheUnitedStates.

ShortlyafterthefalloftheSovietUnion,IwasintheUrals,atthepointwhereEuropebecomesAsia,accompaniedbyaRussiancameracrew.Thecameramanwasataciturn,stoic,grizzledveteranof filming, andwas the sonof theRedArmy’s cameramanwhohad filmed a great deal of footageduring theGerman siegeofStalingrad. I askedhim, “So, are youEuropeanor are youAsian?”Hereflectedonthisforafewsecondsthenreplied,“Neither—IamRussian.”

WhateveritsEuropeancredentials,RussiaisnotanAsianpowerformanyreasons.Although75percentofitsterritoryisinAsia,only22percentofitspopulationlivesthere.SiberiamaybeRussia’s“treasurechest,”containingthemajorityof themineralwealth,oil,andgas,but it isaharsh land,freezing formonths on end, with vast forests (taiga), poor soil for farming, and large stretches ofswampland.Only two railwaynetworks runwest toeast—theTrans-Siberianand theBaikal-AmurMainline. There are few transport routes leading north to south and so no easyway for Russia toprojectpowersouthwardintomodernMongoliaorChina:itlacksthemanpowerandsupplylinestodoso.

Chinamaywell eventually control parts of Siberia in the long run, but this would be throughRussia’s declining birthrate and Chinese immigration moving north. Already as far west as theswampyWestSiberianPlain,betweentheUralsinthewestandtheYeniseiRiveronethousandmilestotheeast,youcanseeChineserestaurantsinmostofthetownsandcities.Manydifferentbusinessesarecoming.TheemptydepopulatingspacesofRussia’sFarEastareevenmorelikelytocomeunderChinesecultural,andeventuallypolitical,control.

When you move outside of the Russian heartland, much of the population in the RussianFederation is not ethnically Russian and pays little allegiance to Moscow, which results in anaggressivesecuritysystemsimilartotheoneinSovietdays.Duringthatera,Russiawaseffectivelyacolonial power ruling over nations and people who felt they had nothing in common with theirmasters; parts of theRussianFederation—for example,Chechnya andDagestan in theCaucasus—stillfeelthisway.

Late inthe lastcenturyoverstretch, spendingmoremoneythanwasavailable, theeconomicsofthemadhouseinalandnotdesignedforpeople,anddefeatinthemountainsofAfghanistanledtothefalloftheUSSRandsawtheRussianEmpireshrinkbacktotheshapeofmoreorlessthepre–CommunisterawithitsEuropeanbordersendingatEstonia,Latvia,Belarus,Ukraine,Georgia,andAzerbaijan. The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, in support of the Communist Afghangovernment against anti-CommunistMuslim guerrillas, had never been about bringing the joys ofMarxist-LeninismtotheAfghanpeople. ItwasalwaysaboutensuringthatMoscowcontrolledthatspaceinordertopreventanyoneelsefromdoingso.

Crucially,theinvasionofAfghanistanalsogavehopetothegreatRussiandreamofitsarmybeingable to “wash their boots in the warm waters of the Indian Ocean,” in the words of the ultra-

nationalisticRussianpoliticianVladimirZhirinovsky,andthusachievewhat itneverhad:awarm-waterportwhere thewaterdoesnot freeze inwinter,with freeaccess to theworld’smajor tradingroutes.TheportsontheArctic,suchasMurmansk,freezeforseveralmonthseachyear:Vladivostok,thelargestRussianportonthePacificOcean,isice-lockedforaboutfourmonthsandisenclosedbytheSeaof Japan,which isdominatedby the Japanese.Thisdoesnot justhalt the flowof trade; itpreventstheRussianfleetfromoperatingasaglobalpower.Inaddition,waterbornetransportismuchcheaperthanlandorairborneroutes.

However, the “warm-water open sea-lanes” dream has seeped away from Moscow, further nowperhapsthanfortwohundredyears.TheAfghanexperienceissometimescalled“Russia’sVietnam,”butitwasmorethanthat;theplainsofKandaharandthemountainsoftheHinduKushprovedtherulethatAfghanistanisthe“GraveyardofEmpires.”

Thislackofawarm-waterportwithdirectaccesstotheoceanshasalwaysbeenRussia’sAchilles’heel, as strategically important to it as the North European Plain. Russia is at a geographicaldisadvantage,savedfrombeingamuchweakerpoweronlybecauseofitsoilandgas.Nowonder,inhiswill of 1725, that Peter theGreat advised his descendants to “approach as near as possible toConstantinople and India. Whoever governs there will be the true sovereign of the world.Consequently, excitecontinualwars,notonly inTurkey,but inPersia. . . .Penetrateas far as thePersianGulf,advanceasfarasIndia.”

WhentheSovietUnionbrokeapart,itsplitintofifteencountries.GeographyhaditsrevengeontheideologyoftheSoviets,andamorelogicalpicturereappearedonthemap,onewheremountains,rivers,lakes,andseasdelineatewherepeoplelive,howtheyareseparatedfromeachotherand,thus,howtheydevelopeddifferentlanguagesandcustoms.Theexceptiontothisrulearethe“stans,”suchasTajikistan,whosebordersweredeliberatelydrawnbyStalinsoastoweakeneachstatebyensuringithadlargeminoritiesofpeoplefromotherstates.

Ifyoutakethelongviewofhistory—andmostdiplomatsandmilitaryplannersdo—thenthereisstilleverythingtoplayforineachofthestatesthatformerlymadeuptheUSSR,plussomeofthosepreviously in the Warsaw Pact military alliance. They can be divided three ways: those that areneutral,thepro-Westerngroup,andthepro-Russiancamp.

Theneutralcountries—Uzbekistan,Azerbaijan,andTurkmenistan—arethosewithfewerreasonstoallythemselveswithRussiaortheWest.Thisisbecauseallthreeproducetheirownenergyandarenotbeholdentoeithersidefortheirsecurityortrade.

In the pro-Russian camp are Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Belarus, and Armenia. TheireconomiesaretiedtoRussiainthewaythatmuchofeasternUkraine’seconomyis(anotherreasonfortherebellionthere).Thelargestofthese,Kazakhstan,leanstowardRussiadiplomaticallyanditslargeRussian-minoritypopulationiswellintegrated.Ofthefive,KazakhstanandBelarushavejoinedRussia inthenewEurasianUnion(asortofpoorman’sEU)andallare inamilitaryalliancewithRussiacalledtheCollectiveSecurityTreatyOrganization.TheCSTOsuffersfromnothavinganameyou can boil down to oneword, and frombeing awatered-downWarsawBloc.Russiamaintains amilitarypresenceinKyrgyzstan,Tajikistan,andArmenia.

Then there are the pro-Western countries formerly in theWarsaw Pact but now all inNATOand/ortheEU:Poland,Latvia,Lithuania,Estonia,theCzechRepublic,Bulgaria,Hungary,Slovakia,Albania, and Romania. By no coincidence, many are among the states that suffered most underSoviet tyranny. Add to these Georgia, Ukraine, and Moldova, who would all like to join bothorganizationsbutarebeingheldatarm’slengthbecauseoftheirgeographicproximitytoRussiaand

becauseallthreehaveRussiantroopsorpro-Russianmilitiaontheirsoil.NATOmembershipofanyofthesethreecouldsparkawar.

Alloftheaboveexplainswhy,in2013,asthepoliticalbattleforthedirectionofUkraineheatedup,Moscowconcentratedhard.

Aslongasapro-RussiangovernmentheldswayinKiev,theRussianscouldbeconfidentthatitsbuffer zone would remain intact and guard the North European Plain. Even a studiedly neutralUkraine,whichwouldpromisenottojointheEUorNATOandtoupholdtheleaseRussiahadonthe warm-water port at Sevastopol in Crimea, would be acceptable. That Ukraine was reliant onRussia for energy alsomade its increasingly neutral stance acceptable, albeit irritating. But a pro-WesternUkrainewithambitionstojointhetwogreatWesternalliancesandthatthrewintodoubtRussia’saccesstoitsBlackSeaport?AUkrainethatonedaymightevenhostaNATOnavalbase?Thatcouldnotstand.

PresidentViktorYanukovychofUkraine tried toplayboth sides.He flirtedwith theWest,butpaidhomagetoMoscow—thusPutintoleratedhim.WhenhecameclosetosigningamassivetradeagreementwiththeEU,onewhichcouldleadtomembership,Putinbeganturningthescrew.

For the Russian foreign policy elite, membership of the EU is simply a stalking horse formembershipofNATO,andforRussia,UkrainianmembershipofNATOisaredline.Putinpiledthepressure on Yanukovych, made him an offer he chose not to refuse, and the Ukrainian presidentscrambledout of theEUdeal andmade a pactwithMoscow, thus sparking theprotests thatwereeventuallytooverthrowhim.

TheGermansandAmericanshadbackedtheoppositionparties,withBerlininparticular seeingformerworldboxingchampionturnedpoliticianVitaliKlitschkoastheirman.TheWestwaspullingUkraine intellectually and economically toward it while helping pro-Western Ukrainians push itwestwardbytrainingandfundingsomeofthedemocraticoppositiongroups.

Street fightingerupted inKievanddemonstrations across thecountry grew. In theeast, crowdscameoutinsupportofthepresident.Inthewestofthecountry,incitiessuchasL’viv,whichusedtobeinPoland,theywerebusytryingtoridthemselvesofanypro-Russianinfluence.

Bymid-February2014,L’viv,andotherurbanareas,werenolongercontrolledbythegovernment.ThenonFebruary22, after dozensof deaths inKiev, thepresident, fearing forhis life, fled.Anti-Russianfactions,someofwhichwerepro-Westernandsomepro-fascist,tookoverthegovernment.Fromthatmomentthediewascast.PresidentPutindidnothavemuchofachoice—hehadtoannexCrimea,whichcontainednotonlymanyRussian-speakingUkrainiansbutmostimportanttheportofSevastopol.

SevastopolisRussia’sonlytruemajorwarm-waterport.However,accessoutoftheBlackSeaintotheMediterranean is restricted by theMontreuxConvention of 1936,which gaveTurkey—now aNATOmember—control of theBosporus.Russiannaval ships do transit the strait, but in limitednumbers,andthiswouldnotbepermittedintheeventofconflict.EvenaftercrossingtheBosporustheRussiansneed tonavigate theAegeanSeabeforeaccessing theMediterranean, andwould stillhaveeithertocrosstheStraitofGibraltartogainaccesstotheAtlanticOcean,orbealloweddowntheSuezCanaltoreachtheIndianOcean.

The Russians do have a small naval presence in Tartus on Syria’s Mediterranean coast (thispartiallyexplainstheirsupportfortheSyriangovernmentwhenfightingbrokeoutin2011),butitisalimited-supplyandreplenishmentbase,notamajorforce.

AnotherstrategicproblemisthatintheeventofwartheRussiannavycannotgetoutoftheBalticSea, either, due to the Skagerrak Strait, which connects to the North Sea. The narrow strait is

controlledbyNATOmembersDenmarkandNorway;andeveniftheshipsmadeit,theroutetotheAtlanticgoesthroughwhatisknownastheGIUK(Greenland/Iceland/UK)gapintheNorthSea—whichwewillseemoreofwhenwelookatWesternEurope.

HavingannexedCrimea, theRussians arewastingno time.They arebuildingup theBlackSeafleet at Sevastopol and constructing a newnaval port in theRussian city ofNovorossiysk,which,although it doesnothave anatural deepharbor,will give theRussians extra capacity.Eightynewshipsarebeingcommissionedaswellasseveralsubmarines.Thefleetwillstillnotbestrongenoughto break out of the Black Sea during wartime, but its capacity is increasing. In July 2015, Russiapublisheditsnewnavaldoctrineand,there,rightatthetopofthelistofthreatstoRussianinterests,wasNATO.ItcalledNATO’spositioningoftroopsandhardwareclosertoitsborders“inadmissible,”whichwasjustshortoffightingtalk.

Tocounterthis,inthenextdecadewecanexpecttoseetheUnitedStatesencouragingitsNATOpartnerRomaniatoboostitsfleetintheBlackSeawhilerelyingonTurkeytoholdthelineacrosstheBosporus.

CrimeawaspartofRussiafortwocenturiesbeforebeinggrantedtotheSovietRepublicofUkrainein1954byPresidentKhrushchevatatimewhenitwasenvisagedthatSovietmanwouldliveforeverand so be controlled by Moscow forever. Now that Ukraine was no longer Soviet, nor even pro-Russian—Putinknewthesituationhadtochange.DidtheWesterndiplomatsknow?Iftheydidn’t,thentheywereunawareofruleA,lessonone,in“DiplomacyforBeginners”:Whenfacedwithwhatisconsideredanexistentialthreat,agreatpowerwilluseforce.Iftheywereaware,thentheymusthaveconsidered Putin’s annexation of Crimea a price worth paying for pulling Ukraine into modernEuropeandtheWesternsphereofinfluence.

AgenerousviewisthattheUnitedStatesandtheEuropeanswerelookingforwardtowelcomingUkraineintothedemocraticworldasafullmemberofitsliberalinstitutionsandtheruleoflawandthattherewasn’tmuchMoscowcoulddoaboutit.Thatisaviewthatdoesnottakeintoaccountthefactthatgeopoliticsstillexistsinthetwenty-firstcenturyandthatRussiadoesnotplaybytheruleoflaw.

Flushedwithvictory,thenewinterimUkrainiangovernmenthadimmediatelymadesomefoolishstatements,notleastofwhichwastheintentiontoabolishRussianastheofficialsecondlanguageinvariousregions.GiventhattheseregionswerethosewiththemostRussianspeakersandpro-Russiansentiment, and indeed includedCrimea, thiswasbound to sparkabacklash. It also gavePresidentPutinthepropagandaheneededtomakethecasethatethnicRussiansinsideUkraineneededtobeprotected.

TheKremlinhasalawthatcompelsthegovernmenttoprotect“ethnicRussians.”Adefinitionofthattermis,bydesign,hardtocomebybecauseitwillbedefinedasRussiachooses ineachofthepotentialcrisesthatmayeruptintheformerSovietUnion.WhenitsuitstheKremlintheywillbedefinedsimplyaspeoplewhospeakRussianastheirfirstlanguage.Atothertimesthenewcitizenshiplawwillbeused,which states that if yourgrandparents lived inRussia, andRussian is yournativelanguage,youcantakeRussiancitizenship.Giventhat,asthecrisesarise,peoplewillbeinclinedtoacceptRussianpassportstohedgetheirbets,thiswillbealeverforRussianentryintoaconflict.

Approximately 60 percent of Crimea’s population is “ethnically Russian,” so the Kremlin waspushing against an open door. Putin helped the anti-Kiev demonstrations and stirred up somuchtroublethateventuallyhe“had”tosendhistroopsoutoftheconfinesofthenavalbaseandontothestreets to protect people.TheUkrainianmilitary in the areawas inno shape to takeonboth thepeopleandtheRussianarmyandswiftlywithdrew.CrimeawasonceagaindefactoapartofRussia.

YoucouldmaketheargumentthatPresidentPutindidhaveachoice:hecouldhaverespectedtheterritorial integrity ofUkraine. But, given that hewas dealingwith the geographic handGodhasdealtRussia,thiswasneverreallyanoption.Hewouldnotbethemanwho“lostCrimea”andwithittheonlyproperwarm-waterporthiscountryhadaccessto.

NoonerodetotherescueofUkraineasitlostterritoryequivalenttothesizeofBelgium,orthestateofMaryland.Ukraineanditsneighborsknewageographictruth:thatunlessyouareinNATO,Moscow is near, andWashington,DC, is far away. ForRussia thiswas an existentialmatter: theycouldnotcopewithlosingCrimea,buttheWestcould.

TheEUimposedlimitedsanctions—limitedbecauseseveralEuropeancountries,Germanyamongthem,arereliantonRussianenergytoheattheirhomesinwinter.ThepipelinesruneasttowestandtheKremlincanturnthetapsonandoff.

Energyaspoliticalpowerwillbedeployedtimeandagaininthecomingyears,andtheconceptof“ethnicRussians”willbeusedtojustifywhatevermovesRussiamakes.

In a speech in 2014, President Putin briefly referred to “Novorossiya” or “New Russia.” TheKremlin watchers took a deep breath. He had revived the geographic title given to what is nowsouthernandeasternUkraine,whichRussiahadwonfromtheOttomanEmpireduringthereignofCatherine theGreat in the lateeighteenthcentury.Catherinewenton to settleRussians in theseregionsanddemandedthatRussianbethefirstlanguage.NovorossiyawascededtothenewlyformedUkrainianSovietSocialistRepubliconlyin1922.“Why?”askedPutinrhetorically.“LetGodjudgethem.” In his speech he listed the Ukrainian regions of Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson,Mykolaiv,andOdessabeforesaying,“Russialosttheseterritoriesforvariousreasons,butthepeopleremained.”

SeveralmillionethnicRussiansstillremaininsidewhatwastheUSSRbutoutsideRussia.It is no surprise that, after seizing Crimea, Russia went on to encourage the uprisings by pro-

RussiansintheUkrainianeasternindustrialheartlandsinLuhanskandDonetsk.RussiacouldeasilydrivemilitarilyallthewaytotheeasternbankoftheDnieperRiverinKiev.Butitdoesnotneedtheheadache that would bring. It is far less painful, and cheaper, to encourage unrest in the easternbordersofUkraineandremindKievwhocontrolsenergysupplies,toensurethatKiev’s infatuationwiththeflirtatiousWestdoesnotturnintoamarriageconsummatedinthechambersoftheEUorNATO.

CovertsupportfortheuprisingsineasternUkrainewasalsologisticallysimpleandhadtheaddedbenefit of deniability on the international stage. Barefaced lying in the great chamber of theUNSecurityCouncilissimpleifyouropponentdoesnothaveconcreteproofofyouractionsand,moreimportant, doesn’t want concrete proof in case he or she has to do something about it. ManypoliticiansintheWestbreathedasighofreliefandmutteredquietly,“ThankgoodnessUkraineisn’tinNATOorwewouldhavehadtoact.”

TheannexationofCrimeashowedhowRussiaispreparedformilitaryactiontodefendwhatitseesasitsinterestsinwhatitcallsits“nearabroad.”IttookarationalgamblethatoutsidepowerswouldnotinterveneandCrimeawas“doable.”ItisclosetoRussia,couldbesuppliedacrosstheBlackSeaandtheSeaofAzov,andcouldrelyoninternalsupportfromlargesectionsofthepopulationofthepeninsula.

Russia has not finishedwithUkraine yet, nor elsewhere.Unless it feels threatened,RussiawillprobablynotsenditstroopsallthewayintotheBalticStates,oranyfartherforwardthanitalreadyisinGeorgia;butitwillpushitspowerinGeorgia,andinthisvolatileperiodfurthermilitaryactioncannotberuledout.

However, just asRussia’s actions in itswarwithGeorgia in 2008were awarning toNATO tocome no closer, soNATO’smessage to Russia in the summer of 2014 was “This far west and nofarther.” A handful of NATO warplanes were flown to the Baltic States, military exercises wereannouncedinPoland,andtheAmericansbeganplanningto“pre-position”extrahardwareasclosetoRussia as possible.At the same time therewas a flurryof diplomaticvisits bydefense and foreignministerstotheBalticStates,Georgia,andMoldovatoreassurethemofsupport.

Somecommentatorspouredscornonthereaction,arguingthatsixRAFEurofighterTyphoonjetsflyingoverBalticairspacewerehardlygoingtodetertheRussianhordes.Butthereactionwasaboutdiplomaticsignaling,andthesignalwasclear—NATOispreparedtofight.Indeeditwouldhaveto,because if it failed to react to an attack on a member state, it would instantly be obsolete. TheAmericans—whoarealreadyedgingtowardanewforeignpolicyinwhichtheyfeellessconstrainedbyexistingstructuresandarepreparedtoforgenewonesastheyperceivetheneedarises—aredeeplyunimpressedwiththeEuropeancountries’commitmenttodefensespending.

InthecaseofthethreeBalticStates,NATO’spositionisclear.Astheyareallmembersof thealliance,armedaggressionagainstanyofthembyRussiawouldtriggerArticle5ofNATO’sfoundingcharter,which states: “Anarmedattackagainstoneormore [NATOmember states] inEuropeorNorthAmericashallbeconsideredanattackagainstthemall,”andgoesontosayNATOwillcometotherescue ifnecessary.Article5was invokedafter theterroristattacks intheUnitedStatesonSeptember11,2001,pavingthewayforNATOinvolvementinAfghanistan.

PresidentPutinisastudentofhistory.HeappearstohavelearnedthelessonsoftheSovietyears,inwhichRussiaoverstretcheditselfandwasforcedtocontract.AnovertassaultontheBalticStateswouldlikewisebeoverstretchingandisunlikely,especiallyifNATOanditspoliticalmastersensurethatPutinunderstandstheirsignals.

RussiadoesnothavetosendanarmoreddivisionintoLatvia,Lithuania,orEstoniatoinfluenceevents there, but if it ever does, it would justify the action by claiming that the large Russiancommunitiestherearebeingdiscriminatedagainst.InbothEstoniaandLatvia,approximatelyoneinfourpeopleareethnicallyRussianandinLithuaniaitis5.8percent.InEstonia,theRussianspeakerssaytheyareunderrepresentedingovernmentandthousandsdonothaveanyformofcitizenship.Thisdoes not mean they want to be part of Russia, but they are one of the levers Russia can pull toinfluenceevents.

TheRussian-speakingpopulations intheBalticscanbestirreduptomakinglifedifficult.Thereareexisting,fullyformedpoliticalpartiesalreadyrepresentingmanyofthem.Russiaalsocontrolsthecentralheating in thehomesof theBalticpeople. Itcanset thepricepeoplepay for theirheatingbillseachmonth,and,ifitchooses,simplyturntheheatingoff.

RussiawillcontinuetopushitsinterestsintheBalticStates.TheyareoneoftheweaklinksinitsdefensesincethecollapseoftheUSSR,anotherbreachinthewalltheywouldprefertoseeforminganarcfromtheBalticSea,south,thensoutheast,connectingtotheUrals.

ThisbringsustoanothergapinthewallandanotherregionMoscowviewsasapotentialbufferstate.FirmlyintheKremlin’ssightsisMoldova.

AnumberofcountriesthatwereoncemembersoftheSovietUnionaspiretoclosertieswithEurope,butwithcertainregions,suchasTransnistriainMoldova,remainingheavilypro-Russian,thereispotentialforfutureconflict.

Moldova presents a different problem for all sides. An attack on the country by Russia wouldnecessitate crossing through Ukraine, over the Dnieper River, and then over another sovereignborderintoMoldova.Itcouldbedone—atthecostofsignificantlossoflifeandbyusingOdessaasastaging post—but there would no deniability. Although it might not trigger war with NATO(Moldovaisnotamember),itwouldprovokesanctionsagainstMoscowatalevelhithertounseen,andconfirmwhat thiswriterbelieves toalreadybethecase; that thecoolingrelationshipbetweenRussiaandtheWestisalreadytheNewColdWar.

Why would the Russians want Moldova? Because as the Carpathian Mountains curve aroundsouthwesttobecometheTransylvanianAlps,tothesoutheastisaplainleadingdowntotheBlackSea.ThatplaincanalsobethoughtofasaflatcorridorintoRussia,andjustastheRussianswouldprefer to control the North European Plain at its narrow point in Poland, so they would like tocontrol the plain by the Black Sea—also known as Moldova—in the region formerly known asBessarabia.

AftertheCrimeanWar(foughtbetweenRussiaandWesternEuropeanalliestoprotectOttomanTurkeyfromRussia),the1856TreatyofParisreturnedpartsofBessarabiatoMoldova,thuscuttingRussiaofffromtheDanubeRiver.IttookRussiaalmostacenturytoregainaccesstoit,butwiththecollapseoftheUSSR,oncemoreRussiahadtoretreateastward.

However,ineffect,theRussiansdoalreadycontrolpartofMoldova—aregioncalledTransnistria,partofMoldovaeastoftheDniesterRiverthatbordersUkraine.Stalin,inhiswisdom,settledlargenumbersofRussiansthere,justashehadinCrimeaafterdeportingmuchoftheTatarpopulation.

ModernTransnistria isnowat least50percentRussian-orUkrainian-speaking,andthatpartofthe population is pro-Russian.WhenMoldova became independent in 1991 the Russian-speakingpopulation rebelled and, after a brief period of fighting, declared a breakaway Republic ofTransnistria.IthelpedthatRussiahadsoldiersstationedthere,anditretainsaforceoftwothousandtroopstothisday.

ARussianmilitaryadvanceinMoldovaisunlikely,buttheKremlincananddoesuseitseconomicmuscleandthevolatilesituationinTransnistriatotrytoinfluencetheMoldovangovernmentnottojointheEUorNATO.

MoldovaisreliantonRussiaforitsenergyneeds,itscropsgoeastward,andRussianimportsoftheexcellentMoldovanwinetendtoriseor fallaccordingtothestateof therelationshipbetweenthetwocountries.

AcrosstheBlackSeafromMoldovaliesanotherwine-producingnation:Georgia.ItisnothighonRussia’slistofplacestocontrolfortworeasons.First,theGeorgia–Russianwarof2008leftlargepartsofthecountryoccupiedbyRussiantroops,whonowfullycontroltheregionsofAbkhaziaandSouthOssetia. Second, it lies south of the Caucasus Mountains and Russia also has troops stationed inneighboringArmenia.Moscowwouldpreferanextralayertotheirbufferzone,butcanlivewithouttaking the rest of Georgia. That situation could potentially change if Georgia looked close tobecoming a NATO member. This is precisely why it has so far been rebuffed by the NATOgovernments,whicharekeentoavoidtheinevitableconflictwithRussia.

Amajority of the population inGeorgia would like closer ties with the EU countries, but theshock of the 2008 war, when then president Mikheil Saakashvili naively thought the Americansmight ride tohis rescueafterheprovoked theRussians,hascausedmany toconsider thathedgingtheirbetsmaybesafer.In2013theyelectedagovernmentandpresident,GiorgiMargvelashvili,farmoreconciliatorytoMoscow.AsinUkraine,peopleinstinctivelyknowthetruismeveryoneintheneighborhoodrecognizes:thatWashingtonisfaraway,andMoscowisnear.

Russia’smostpowerfulweaponsnow,leavingtoonesidenuclearmissiles,arenottheRussianarmyandairforce,butgasandoil.RussiaissecondonlytotheUnitedStatesastheworld’sbiggestsupplierofnaturalgas,andofcourseitusesthispowertoitsadvantage.ThebetteryourrelationswithRussia,thelessyoupayforenergy;forexample,FinlandgetsabetterdealthantheBalticStates.Thispolicyhasbeenusedsoaggressively,andRussiahassuchaholdoverEurope’senergyneedsthatmovesareafoot to blunt its impact.Many countries in Europe are attempting to wean themselves off theirdependency onRussian energy, not via alternative pipelines from less aggressive countries but bybuildingports.

Onaverage,25percentofEurope’sgasandoilcomesfromRussia;butoftenthecloseracountryistoMoscow, the greater its dependency.This in turn reduces that country’s foreign policy options.Latvia,Slovakia,Finland, andEstonia are100percent reliantonRussiangas; theCzechRepublic,Bulgaria, and Lithuania are 80 percent dependent; andGreece,Austria, andHungary 60 percent.AbouthalfofGermany’sgas supplycomes fromRussia,which,alongwithextensive tradedeals, ispartlywhyGermanpoliticianstendtobeslowertocriticizetheKremlinforaggressivebehaviorthana country such as Britain, which not only has 13 percent dependency, but also has its own gas-producingindustry,includingreservesofuptoninemonths’supply.

ThereareseveralmajorpipelineroutesrunningeasttowestoutofRussia,someforoilandsomeforgas.Itisthegaslinesthatarethemostimportant.

Inthenorth,viatheBalticSea,istheNordStreamroute,whichconnectsdirectlytoGermany.Belowthat,cuttingthroughBelarus,istheYamalpipeline,whichfeedsPolandandGermany.Inthesouth is the Blue Stream, taking gas to Turkey via the Black Sea. Until early 2015 there was aplannedprojectcalledSouthStream,whichwasduetousethesameroutebutbranchofftoHungary,Austria,Serbia,Bulgaria, and Italy.SouthStreamwasRussia’s attempt to ensure that evenduringdisputeswithUkraineitwouldstillhaveamajorroutetolargemarketsinWesternEuropeandtheBalkans. Several EU countries put pressure on their neighbors to reject the plan, and Bulgaria

effectivelypulledtheplugontheprojectbysayingthepipelineswouldnotcomeacrossitsterritory.PresidentPutin reactedby reachingout toTurkeywith anewproposal, sometimesknownasTurkStream.

Russia’s South Stream and Turk Stream projects to circumvent Ukraine followed the pricedisputesbetween the two states of 2005–10,which at various times cut the gas supply to eighteencountries.EuropeannationsthatstoodtobenefitfromSouthStreamweremarkedlymorerestrainedintheircriticismofRussiaduringtheCrimeacrisisof2014.

Enter the Americans, with a win-win strategy for the United States and Europe. Noting thatEuropewantsgas,andnotwantingtobeseentobeweak inthe faceofRussian foreignpolicy, theAmericansbelievetheyhavetheanswer.ThemassiveboominshalegasproductionintheUnitedStatesisnotonlyenablingittobeself-sufficientinenergy,butalsotosellitssurplustooneofthegreatenergyconsumers—Europe.

Todo this, the gasneeds to be liquefied and shipped across theAtlantic.This in turn requiresliquefiednaturalgas(LNG)terminalsandportstobebuiltalongtheEuropeancoastlinestoreceivethecargoandturnitbackintogas.Washingtonisalreadyapprovinglicensesforexportfacilities,andEurope is beginning a long-term project to buildmore LNG terminals. Poland and Lithuania areconstructing LNG terminals; other countries such as the Czech Republic want to build pipelinesconnectingtothoseterminals,knowingtheycouldthenbenefitnotjustfromAmericanliquefiedgas,butalso supplies fromNorthAfricaand theMiddleEast.TheKremlinwouldno longerbeable toturnthetapsoff.

TheRussians, seeing the long-termdanger, point out that piped gas is cheaper thanLNG, andPresidentPutin,withaWhatdidIeverdowrong?expressiononhisface,saysthatEuropealreadyhasareliableandcheaper sourceofgascoming fromhiscountry.LNGisunlikely tocompletely replaceRussian gas, but it will strengthen what is a weak European hand in both price negotiation andforeignpolicy.Toprepareforapotentialreductioninrevenue,RussiaisplanningpipelinesheadingsoutheastandhopestoincreasesalestoChina.

Thisisaneconomicbattlebasedongeographyandoneofthemodernexampleswheretechnologyisbeingutilizedinanattempttobeatthegeographicrestraintsofearliereras.

ToomuchwasmadeoftheeconomicpainRussiasufferedin2014whenthepriceofoilfellbelow$50abarrel.Russia loses about$2billion in revenue for eachdollardrop in theoil price and theRussianeconomydulytookthehit,bringinggreathardshiptomanyordinarypeople,butpredictionsof thecollapseof the statewerewideof themark.Russiawill struggle to fund itshuge increase inmilitaryspending,butdespitethedifficultiestheWorldBankpredictsthatinthesecondhalfofthisdecadetheeconomywillgrowslightly.Ifthenewdiscoveriesofvastamountsofoil intheArctic’sKaraSeacanbebroughttoshore,thatgrowthwillbehealthier.

AwayfromtheheartlandRussiadoeshaveaglobalpoliticalreachandusesitsinfluence,notablyinLatinAmerica,whereitbuddiesuptowhicheverSouthAmericancountryhastheleastfriendlyrelationshipwiththeUnitedStates,forexample,Venezuela.IttriestocheckAmericanmovesintheMiddleEast,oratleastensureithasasayinmatters,itisspendingmassivelyonitsArcticmilitaryforces,anditconsistentlytakesaninterestinGreenlandtomaintainitsterritorialclaims.SincethefallofCommunismithasfocusedlessonAfrica,butmaintainswhatinfluenceitcanthere,albeitinalosingbattlewithChina.

Competitorstheymaybe,butthetwogiantsalsocooperateonvarious levels.Moscow,knowingthattheEuropeanshavealong-termambitiontoweanthemselvesoffdependencyonRussianenergy,islookingtoChinaasanalternativecustomer.Chinahastheupperhandinwhatisabuyers’market,

butthelinesofcommunicationarecordialandwellused.From2018RussiawillsupplyChinawith38billioncubicmetersofgasayearina$400billionthirty-yeardeal.

The days when Russia was considered a military threat to China have passed and the idea ofRussiantroopsoccupyingManchuria,astheydidin1945,isinconceivable,althoughtheydokeepawary eye on each other in places in which each would like to be the dominant power, such asKazakhstan. However, they are not in competition for the ideological leadership of globalCommunism and this has freed each side to cooperate at a military level where their interestscoincide.What seems likeanoddexamplecame inMay2015when they conducted jointmilitarylivefireexercisesintheMediterranean.Beijing’spushintoasea9,000milesfromhomewaspartofitsattempttoextenditsnavalreacharoundtheglobe.MoscowhasdesignsonthegasfieldsfoundintheMediterranean,iscourtingGreece,andwantstoprotectitssmallnavalportontheSyriancoast.In addition, both sides are quite happy to annoy the NATO powers in the region, including theAmerican6thFleetbasedinNaples.

Athome it is facingmany challenges, not least ofwhich is demographic.The sharp decline inpopulation growthmay have been arrested, but it remains a problem. The average life span for aRussianman isbelowsixty-five, rankingRussia in thebottomhalfof theworld’s193UNmemberstates,andtherearenowonly144millionRussians(excludingCrimea).

From theGrandPrincipalityofMuscovy, throughPeter theGreat,Stalin, andnowPutin, eachRussianleaderhasbeenconfrontedbythesameproblems.Itdoesn’tmatteriftheideologyofthoseincontrol is czarist, Communist, or crony capitalist—the ports still freeze, and theNorth EuropeanPlainisstillflat.

Strip out the lines of nation states, and themap Ivan theTerrible confronted is the same oneVladimirPutinisfacedwithtothisday.

2

CHINA

Chinaisacivilizationpretendingtobeanation.—LucianPye,politicalscientist

InOctober 2006, aUSNavalSuperCarrierGroup led by the thousand-footUSSKittyHawk wasconfidently sailing through the East China Sea between southern Japan and Taiwan, mindingeveryone’sbusiness,when,withoutwarning,aChinesenavysubmarinesurfacedinthemiddleofthegroup.

AnAmericanaircraft carrierof that size is surroundedbyabout twelveotherwarships,withaircoveraboveandsubmarinecoverbelow.TheChinesevessel,aSong-classattacksubmarine,maywellbe very quiet when running on electric power, but, still, this was the equivalent to Pepsi-Cola’smanagement popping up in aCoca-Cola boardmeeting after listening under the table for half anhour.

TheAmericans were amazed and angry in equalmeasure.Amazed because they had no idea aChinesesubcoulddothatwithoutbeingnoticed,angrybecausetheyhadn’tnoticedandbecausetheyregardedthemoveasprovocative,especiallyasthesubwaswithintorpedorangeoftheKittyHawkitself. They protested, perhaps too much, and the Chinese said: “Oh! What a coincidence, ussurfacinginthemiddleofyourbattlegroupthatisoffourcoast,wehadnoidea.”

Thiswastwenty-first-centuryreversegunboatdiplomacy;whereastheBritishusedtoheaveaman-of-waroffthecoastofsomeminorpowertosignalintent,theChineseheavedintoviewofftheirowncoastwithaclearmessage:“Wearenowamaritimepower,thisisourtime,andthisisoursea.”Ithastakenfourthousandyears,buttheChinesearecomingtoaport—andashippinglane—nearyou.

UntilnowChinahasneverbeenanavalpower—with its large landmass,multipleborders, andshortsearoutestotradingpartners,ithadnoneedtobe,anditwasrarelyideologicallyexpansive.Itsmerchantshavelongsailedtheoceanstotradegoods,butitsnavydidnotseekterritorybeyonditsregion,andthedifficultyofpatrollingthegreatsea-lanesofthePacific,Atlantic,andIndianOceanswasnotworth the effort. Itwas always a land power,with a lot of land and a lot of people—nownearly1.4billion.

TheconceptofChinaasaninhabitedentitybeganalmostfourthousandyearsago.ThebirthplaceofChinesecivilizationistheregionknownastheNorthChinaPlain,whichtheChineserefertoastheCentralPlain.Alarge,low-lyingtractofnearly160,000squaremiles,itissituatedbelowInnerMongolia, south ofManchuria, in and around theYellowRiver and down past theYangtzeRiver,whichbothruneasttowest.Itisnowoneofthemostdenselypopulatedareasintheworld.

The Yellow River basin is subject to frequent and devastating floods, earning the river theunenviable sobriquet “scourge of the Sons of Han.” The industrialization of the region began inearnestinthe1950sandhasbeenrapidlyacceleratinginthelastthreedecades.Theterriblypolluted

river is now so clogged with toxic waste that it sometimes struggles even to reach the sea.Nevertheless,theYellowRiveristoChinawhattheNileistoEgypt—thecradleofitscivilization,whereitspeoplelearnedtofarm,andtomakepaperandgunpowder.

To the north of this proto-China were the harsh lands of the Gobi Desert in what is nowMongolia.TothewestthelandgraduallyrisesuntilitbecomestheTibetanPlateau,reachingtotheHimalayas.Tothesoutheastandthesouthliesthesea.

Theheartland,astheNorthChinaPlainisknown,wasandisalarge,fertileplainwithtwomainriversandaclimatethatallowsriceandsoybeanstobeharvestedtwiceaseason(double-cropping),whichencouragedrapidpopulationgrowth.By1500BCEinthisheartland,outofhundredsofminicity-states,manywarringwitheachother,emergedtheearliestversionofaChinesestate—theShangdynasty.ThisiswherewhatbecameknownastheHanpeopleemerged,protectingtheheartlandandcreatingabufferzonearoundthem.

TheHannowmakeupmorethan90percentofChina’spopulationandtheydominateChinesepolitics and business. They are differentiated by Mandarin, Cantonese, and many other regionallanguages,butunitedbyethnicityandatapoliticallevelbythegeopoliticalimpulsiontoprotecttheheartland.Mandarin, which originated in the northern part of the region, is by far the dominantlanguage and is themedium of government, national state television, and education.Mandarin issimilartoCantoneseandmanyotherlanguageswhenwritten,butverydifferentwhenspoken.

Theheartland is thepolitical, cultural, demographic, and—crucially—the agricultural center ofgravity.Aboutabillionpeople live in thispartofChina,despite itsbeing justhalf the sizeof theUnitedStates,whichhasapopulationof322million.Becausetheterrainoftheheartlandlentitselfto settlement andanagrarian lifestyle, the early dynasties felt threatenedby thenon-Han regionsthatsurroundedthem,especiallyMongolia,withitsnomadicbandsofviolentwarriors.

ChinachosethesamestrategyasRussia:attackasdefense,leadingtopower.Asweshallsee,therewerenaturalbarriersthat—iftheHancouldreachthemandestablishcontrol—wouldprotectthem.Itwasastruggleovermillennia,fullyrealizedonlywiththeannexationofTibetsixdecadesago.

By the time of the famous Chinese philosopher Confucius (551–479 BCE) there was a strongfeelingofChineseidentityandofadividebetweencivilizedChinaandthe“barbarous”regionsthatsurroundedit.Thiswasasenseofidentitysharedby60millionorsopeople.

By200BCE,Chinahadexpandedtoward,butnotreached,Tibet inthesouthwest,northtothegrasslands of centralAsia, and south all the way down to the SouthChina Sea. TheGreatWall(knownastheLongWallinChina)hadbeenfirstbuiltbytheQindynasty(221–207BCE),andonthemapChinawasbeginningtotakeonwhatwenowrecognizeasitsmodernform.Itwouldbemorethantwothousandyearsbeforetoday’sborderswerefixed,however.

Between605and609CE,theGrandCanal,centuriesinthemakingandtodaytheworld’slongestman-made waterway, was extended and finally linked the Yellow River to the Yangtze. The Suidynasty(581–618CE)hadharnessedthevastnumbersofworkersunderitscontrolandusedthemtoconnectexistingnaturaltributariesintoanavigablewaterwaybetweenthetwogreatrivers.ThistiedthenorthernandsouthernHantoeachothermorecloselythaneverbefore.Ittookseveralmillionslavesfiveyearstodothework,buttheancientproblemofhowtomovesuppliessouthtonorthhadbeensolved—butnottheproblemthatexiststothisday,thatofflooding.

TheHanstillwarredwitheachother,butincreasinglylessso,andbytheearlyeleventhcenturyCEtheywereforcedtoconcentratetheirattentiononthewavesofMongolspouringdownfromthenorth.TheMongolsdefeatedwhicheverdynasty,northorsouth,theycameupagainst,andby1279their leader, Kublai Khan, became the first foreigner to rule all of the country as emperor of the

Mongol dynasty. Itwas almostninety years before theHanwould take charge of their own affairswiththeestablishmentoftheMingdynasty.

BynowtherewasincreasingcontactwithtradersandemissariesfromtheemergingnationstatesofEurope,suchasSpainandPortugal.TheChineseleaderswereagainstanysortofpermanentEuropeanpresence,butincreasinglyopenedupthecoastalregionstotrade.ItremainsafeatureofChinatothisdaythatwhenChinaopensup,thecoastlandregionsprosperbuttheinlandareasareneglected.TheprosperityengenderedbytradehasmadecoastalcitiessuchasShanghaiwealthy,butthatwealthhasnotbeenreachingthecountryside.Thishasaddedtothemassive influxofpeople intourbanareasandaccentuatedregionaldifferences.

In the eighteenth century,China reached into parts ofBurma and Indochina to the south, andXinjianginthenorthwestwasconquered,becomingthecountry’sbiggestprovince.Anareaofruggedmountainsandvastdesertbasins,Xinjiangis642,820squaremiles,twicethesizeofTexas—or,toputitanotherway,youcouldfittheUK,France,Germany,Austria,Switzerland,theNetherlands,andBelgiumintoitandstillhaveroomforLuxembourg.AndLichtenstein.

But, in adding to its size, China also added to its problems. Xinjiang, a region populated byMuslims,wasaperennialsourceofinstability,indeedinsurrection,aswereotherregions;butfortheHan, the buffer was worth the trouble, evenmore so after the fate that befell the country in thenineteenthandtwentiethcenturieswiththecomingoftheEuropeans.

Theimperialpowersarrived,theBritishamongthem,andcarvedthecountryupintospheresofinfluence.Itwas,andis, thegreatesthumiliationtheChinesesufferedsincetheMongol invasions.This is a narrative theCommunist Party uses frequently; it is in part true, but it is also useful incoveringuptheparty’sownfailuresandrepressivepolicies.

Later, the Japanese—expanding their territory as an emergingworld power—invaded, attackingfirst in 1932 and then again in 1937, after which they occupiedmost of the heartland as well asManchuriaandInnerMongolia.Japan’sunconditionalsurrendertotheAmericansattheendoftheSecondWorldWar in1945 led to thewithdrawalof Japanese troops, although inManchuria theywerereplacedbytheadvancingSovietarmy,whichthenwithdrewin1946.

AfewoutsideobserversthoughtthepostwaryearsmightbringliberaldemocracytoChina.Itwaswishful thinking akin to the naive nonsenseWesternerswrote during the early days of the recentArabSpring,which,aswithChina,wasbasedonalackofunderstandingoftheinternaldynamicsofthepeople,politics,andgeographyoftheregion.

Instead,nationalist forces underChiangKai-shek andCommunist armies underChairmanMaobattled for supremacy until 1949, when the Communists emerged victorious and the nationalistswithdrewtoTaiwan.Thatsameyear,RadioBeijingannounced:“ThePeople’sLiberationArmymustliberateallChineseterritories,includingTibet,Xinjiang,Hainan,andTaiwan.”

Mao centralized power to an extent never seen in previous dynasties. He blocked RussianinfluenceinInnerMongoliaandextendedBeijing’sinfluenceintoMongolia.In1951,ChinaannexedTibet(anothervastnon-Hanterritory)andbythenChineseschooltextbookmapsbegantodepictChinaasstretchingevenintothecentralAsianrepublics.Thecountryhadbeenputbacktogether;MaowouldspendtherestofhislifeensuringitstayedthatwayandconsolidatingCommunistPartycontrolineveryfacetoflifebutturningawayfrommuchoftheoutsideworld.Thecountryremaineddesperatelypoor,especiallyawayfromthecoastalareas,butunified.

Mao’s successors tried to turn his Long March to victory into an economic march towardprosperity. In the early 1980s, theChinese leaderDengXiaoping coined the term “socialismwithChineseCharacteristics,”whichappearstotranslateas“totalcontrolfortheCommunistPartyina

capitalisteconomy.”Chinawasbecomingamajortradingpowerandarisingmilitarygiant.Bytheend of the 1990s it had recovered from the shock of the Tiananmen Square massacre of 1989,regainedHongKongandMacaufromtheBritishandPortuguese,respectively,andcouldlookarounditsborders,assessitssecurity,andplanforitsgreatmoveoutintotheworld.

IfwelookatChina’smodernbordersweseeagreatpowernowconfidentthatitissecuredbyitsgeographicalfeatures,whichlendthemselvestoeffectivedefenseandtrade.InChina,thepointsofthecompassarealwayslistedintheordereast-south-west-north,butlet’sstartinthenorthandmoveclockwise.

Inthenorthweseethe2,906-mile-longborderwithMongolia.StraddlingthisborderistheGobiDesert.Nomadicwarriors fromancient timesmighthavebeenable toattacksouthacross it,butamodern armywould be spotted amassing thereweeks before itwas ready to advance, and itwouldhave incredibly long supply lines running across inhospitable terrain before it got into InnerMongolia(partofChina)andtowardtheheartland.Therearefewroadsfittomoveheavyarmor,andfew habitable areas. TheGobiDesert is amassive early warning system–cum–defensive line.AnyChineseexpansionnorthwardwillcomenotviathemilitarybutfromtradedealsasChinaattemptsto sweep up Mongolia’s natural resources, primarily minerals. This will bring with it increasedmigrationoftheHanintoMongolia.

Nextdoor,totheeast,isChina’sborderwithRussia,whichrunsallthewaytothePacificOcean—orat least theSeaof Japan subdivisionof it.Above this is themountainousRussianFarEast, ahuge,inhospitableterritorywithatinypopulation.BelowitisManchuria,whichtheRussianswouldhavetopushthroughiftheywantedtoreachtheChineseheartland.ThepopulationofManchuriais100million and growing; in contrast, the Russian Far East has only sevenmillion people and noindicationsofpopulationgrowth.Large-scalemigrationsouthtonorthcanbeexpected,whichwillinturngiveChinamoreleverageinitsrelationswithRussia.Fromamilitaryperspectivethebestplaceto cross would be near theRussian Pacific port ofVladivostok, but there are few reasons, and nocurrentintentions,todoso.Indeed,therecentWesternsanctionsagainstRussiaduetothecrisisinUkrainehavedrivenRussiaintomassiveeconomicdealswithChinaontermsthathelpkeepRussiaafloat,butarefavorabletotheChinese.Russiaisthejuniorpartnerinthisrelationship.

Below theRussian Far East, along the coast, areChina’s Yellow, EastChina, and SouthChinaSeas,whichleadtothePacificandIndianOceans,havemanygoodharbors,andhavealwaysbeenusedfortrade.Butacrossthewaveslieseveralisland-sizeproblems—oneshapedlikeJapan,whichweshallcometoshortly.Continuingclockwise,wecometothenextlandborders:Vietnam,Laos,andBurma.VietnamisanirritationforChina.Forcenturiesthetwohavesquabbledoverterritoryand,unfortunately for both, this is the one area to the south that has a border an army can get acrosswithouttoomuchtrouble—whichpartiallyexplainsthethousand-yeardominationandoccupationofVietnambyChina from111BCEto938CEand theirbrief cross-borderwarof1979.However, asChina’smilitaryprowessgrows,Vietnamwillbelessinclinedtogetdrawnintoashootingmatchandwill either cozy up even closer to the Americans for protection or quietly begin shiftingdiplomatically to become friends with Beijing. That both countries are nominally ideologicallyCommunisthaslittletodowiththestateoftheirrelationship:itistheirsharedgeographythathasdefined relations.Viewed fromBeijing,Vietnam isonlyaminor threatandaproblemthatcanbemanaged.

The border with Laos is hilly jungle terrain, difficult for traders to cross—and even morecomplicatedforthemilitary.AstheymoveclockwisetoBurma,thejunglehillsbecomemountains

untilatthewesternextremetheyareapproachingtwentythousandfeetandbegintomergeintotheHimalayas.

This brings us to Tibet and its importance to China. The Himalayas run the length of theChinese-Indian border before descending to become the Karakoram Range bordering Pakistan,Afghanistan,andTajikistan.Thisisnature’sversionofaGreatWallofChina,or—lookingatitfromNewDelhi’sside—theGreatWallofIndia.Itcutsthetwomostpopulouscountriesontheplanetofffromeachotherbothmilitarilyandeconomically.

They have their disputes: China claims the Indian province of Arunachal Pradesh, India saysChina is occupyingAksaiChin; but despite pointing their artillery at each other high up on thisnaturalwall,bothsideshavebetterthingstodothanreignitetheshootingmatchthatbrokeoutin1962,whena seriesofviolentborderdisputesculminated invicious large-scalemountain fighting.Nevertheless,thetensioniseverpresentandeachsideneedstohandlethesituationwithcare.

Very little tradehasmovedbetweenChinaandIndiaover thecenturies,andthat isunlikely tochange soon.Of course, the border is really theTibetan-Indian border—and that is preciselywhyChinahasalwayswantedtocontrolit.

Thisisthegeopoliticsoffear.IfChinadidnotcontrolTibet,itwouldalwaysbepossiblethatIndiamightattempttodoso.ThiswouldgiveIndiathecommandingheightsoftheTibetanPlateauandabasefromwhichtopushintotheChineseheartland,aswellascontroloftheTibetansourcesofthreeofChina’sgreat rivers, theYellow,Yangtze,andMekong,which iswhyTibet isknownas“China’sWaterTower.”China,acountrywithapproximatelythesamevolumeofwaterusageastheUnitedStates,butwithapopulationfivetimesaslarge,willclearlynotallowthat.

Itmatters notwhether Indiawants to cut offChina’s river supply, only that itwould have thepowertodoso.ForcenturiesChinahastriedtoensurethatitcouldneverhappen.TheactorRichardGere and the Free Tibet movement will continue to speak out against the injustices of theoccupation,andnowsettlement,ofTibetbyHanChinese;butinabattlebetweentheDalaiLama,theTibetan independencemovement,Hollywoodstars,and theChineseCommunistParty—whichrulestheworld’ssecond-largesteconomy—thereisgoingtobeonlyonewinner.

WhenWesterners,be theyMr.GereorPresidentObama, talkaboutTibet, theChinese find itdeeplyirritating.Notdangerous,notsubversive—justirritating.Theyseeitnotthroughtheprismofhumanrights,butthatofgeopoliticalsecurity,andcanonlybelievethattheWesternersaretryingtoundermine their security.However,Chinese security has not been undermined and itwill not be,even if there are further uprisings against theHan.Demographics and geopolitics opposeTibetanindependence.

The Chinese are building “facts on the ground” on the “roof of the world.” In the 1950s, theChineseCommunistPeople’sLiberationArmybeganbuildingroadsintoTibet,andsincethentheyhavehelpedtobringthemodernworldtotheancientkingdom;buttheroads,andnowrailways,alsobringtheHan.

Itwaslongsaidtobeimpossibletobuildarailwaythroughthepermafrost,themountains,andthevalleysofTibet.Europe’sbestengineers,whohadcutthroughtheAlps,saiditcouldnotbedone.Aslateas1988 the travelwriterPaulTherouxwrote inhisbookRiding the IronRooster: “TheKunlunRange is a guarantee that the railway will never get to Lhasa.” The Kunlun separated XinjiangprovincefromTibet,forwhichTherouxgavethanks:“Thatisprobablyagoodthing.IthoughtIlikedrailwaysuntilIsawTibet,andthenIrealizedthatI likedwildernessmuchmore.”ButtheChinesebuilt it.Which,perhaps,only theycouldhavedone.The line into theTibetancapital,Lhasa,was

openedin2006bythethenChinesepresidentHuJintao.NowpassengerandgoodstrainsarrivefromasfarawayasShanghaiandBeijing,fourtimesaday,everyday.

Theybringwiththemmanythings,suchasconsumergoodsfromacrossChina,computers,colortelevisions, and cell phones. They bring tourists who support the local economy, they bringmodernitytoanancientandimpoverishedland,ahugeimprovementinlivingstandardsandhealthcare,andtheybringthepotentialtocarryTibetangoodsouttothewiderworld.ButtheyhavealsobroughtseveralmillionHanChinesesettlers.

Thetruefiguresarehardtocomeby:theFreeTibetmovementclaimsthatinthewiderculturalTibetan regionTibetans arenowaminority, but theChinese government says that in the officialTibetAutonomousRegionmorethan90percentofpeopleareTibetan.Bothsidesareexaggerating,but the evidence suggests the government is the one with the greater degree of exaggeration. ItsfiguresdonotincludeHanmigrants,whoarenotregisteredasresidents,butthecasualobservercanseethatHanneighborhoodsnowdominatetheTibetanurbanareas.

Once,themajorityofthepopulationofManchuria,InnerMongolia,andXinjiangwereethnicallyManchurian,Mongolian, andUighur;nowall threearemajorityHanChinese,or approaching themajority.SoitwillbewithTibet.

ThismeansthatresentmentoftheHanwillcontinuetomanifestitselfinriotingsuchasthatof2008,whenanti-ChineseTibetanprotestersinLhasaburnedandlootedHanproperties,twenty-onepeople died, and hundreds were injured. The authorities’ crackdownwill continue, the Free Tibetmovementwill continue,monkswill continue to set themselves on fire to bring the plight of theTibetanstotheworld’sattention—andtheHanwillkeepcoming.

China’smassive population,mostly crammed into theheartland, is looking forways to expand.JustastheAmericanslookedwest,sodotheChinese,andjustastheironhorsebroughttheEuropeansettlerstothelandsoftheComancheandtheNavajo,sothemodernironroostersarebringingtheHantotheTibetans.

Finally, theclockhandmovesaroundpast theborderswithPakistan,Tajikistan,andKyrgyzstan(allmountainous) before reaching the border with Kazakhstan, which leads back around north toMongolia. This is the ancient Silk Route, the land trade bridge from themiddle kingdom to theworld.Theoreticallyit’saweakspotinChina’sdefense,agapbetweenthemountainsanddesert,butitisfarfromtheheartland,theKazakhsareinnopositiontothreatenChina,andRussiaisseveralhundredmilesdistant.

SoutheastofthisKazakhborderistherestive“semiautonomous”ChineseprovinceofXinjianganditsnativeMuslimpopulationoftheUighurpeople,whospeakalanguagerelatedtoTurkish.Xinjiangborderseightcountries:Russia,Mongolia,Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,Tajikistan,Afghanistan,Pakistan,andIndia.

There was, is, and always will be trouble in Xinjiang. The Uighurs have twice declared anindependent state of “East Turkestan,” in the 1930s and 1940s. Theywatched the collapse of theRussianEmpireresultintheirformerSovietneighborsinthestansbecomingsovereignstates,wereinspiredbytheTibetanindependencemovement,andmanyarenowagaincallingtobreakawayfromChina.

Interethnicriotingeruptedin2009,leadingtomorethantwohundreddeaths.Beijingrespondedinthreeways: itruthlesslysuppresseddissent, itpouredmoneyintotheregion,anditcontinuedtopour in Han Chinese workers. For China, Xinjiang is too strategically important to allow anindependencemovementtogetofftheground:itnotonlyborderseightcountries,thusbufferingtheheartland,butitalsohasoil,andishometoChina’snuclearweaponstestingsites.

Mostof thenewtownsandcities springingupacrossXinjiangareoverwhelminglypopulatedbyHanChinese attracted by work in the new factories in which the central government invests. Aclassic example is the city of Shihezi, eighty-five miles northwest of the capital, Ürümqi. Of itspopulationof650,000,itisthoughtthatatleast620,000areHan.Overall,Xinjiangisreckonedtobe40 percent Han, at a conservative estimate—and even Ürümqi itself may now be majority Han,although official figures are difficult to obtain and not always reliable due to their politicalsensitivity.

There is a World Uyghur Congress based in Germany, and the East Turkestan LiberationOrganization set up in Turkey; but Uighur separatists lack a Dalai Lama–type figure upon whomforeignmediacanfix,andtheircauseisalmostunknownaroundtheworld.Chinatriestokeepitthatway,ensuringitstaysongoodtermswithasmanybordercountriesaspossibleinordertopreventanyorganized independence movement from having supply lines or somewhere to which it could fallback.BeijingalsopaintsseparatistsasIslamistterrorists.Al-Qaedaandothergroups,whichhaveafoothold inplaces likeTajikistan,are indeedattemptingto forge linkswiththeUighurseparatists,butthemovementisnationalistfirst,Islamicsecond.However,gun,bomb,andknifeattacksintheregionagainststateand/orHantargetsoverthepast fewyearsdo lookas if theywillcontinueandcouldescalateintoafull-blownuprising.

Chinawillnotcedethisterritoryand,asinTibet,thewindowforindependenceisclosing.Botharebuffer zones,one isamajor landtraderoute,and—crucially—bothoffermarkets(albeitwithalimitedincome)foraneconomythatmustkeepproducingandsellinggoodsifChinaistocontinuetogrowand topreventmassunemployment.Failure todo sowould likely lead towidespreadcivildisorder,threateningthecontroloftheCommunistPartyandtheunityofChina.

There are similar reasons for the party’s resistance to democracy and individual rights. If thepopulationweretobegivenafreevote,theunityoftheHanmightbegintocrackor,morelikely,thecountrysideandurbanareaswouldcomeintoconflict.Thatinturnwouldemboldenthepeopleofthebufferzones,furtherweakeningChina.ItisonlyacenturysincethemostrecenthumiliationoftherapeofChinabyforeignpowers;forBeijing,unityandeconomicprogressareprioritieswellaheadofdemocraticprinciples.

TheChineselookatsocietyverydifferentlyfromtheWest.Westernthoughtisinfusedwiththerightsoftheindividual;Chinesethoughtprizesthecollectiveabovetheindividual.WhattheWestthinksofastherightsofman,theChineseleadershipthinksofasdangeroustheoriesendangeringthemajority,andmuchofthepopulationaccepts,attheleast,thattheextendedfamilycomesbeforetheindividual.

IoncetookaChineseambassadorinLondontoahigh-endFrenchrestaurantinthehopehewouldrepeat Prime Minister Chou En-lai’s much quoted answer to President Richard Nixon’s question“WhatistheimpactoftheFrenchRevolution?”towhichtheprimeministerreplied,“It’stoosoontotell.” Sadly, this was not forthcoming, but I was treated to a stern lecture about how the fullimpositionof “whatyoucallhumanrights” inChinawould lead towidespreadviolenceanddeathandwasthenasked,“Whydoyouthinkyourvalueswouldworkinacultureyoudon’tunderstand?”

Thedealbetweentheparty leadersandthepeoplehasbeen, foragenerationnow,“We’llmakeyoubetteroff—youwillfollowourorders.”Solongastheeconomykeepsgrowing,thatgrandbargainmaylast.Ifitstops,orgoesintoreverse,thedealisoff.Thecurrentlevelofdemonstrationsandangeragainstcorruptionandinefficiencyaretestamenttowhatwouldhappenifthedealbreaks.

Anothergrowingproblemforthepartyisitsabilitytofeedthepopulation.Morethan40percentof arable land is now either polluted or has thinning topsoil, according to their Ministry of

Agriculture.Chinaiscaughtinacatch-22.Itneedstokeepindustrializingasitmodernizesandraisesstandards

ofliving,butthatveryprocessthreatensfoodproduction.Ifitcannotsolvethisproblemtherewillbeunrest.

TherearenowaroundfivehundredmostlypeacefulprotestsadayacrossChinaoveravarietyofissues.Ifyouintroducemassunemployment,ormasshunger,thattallywillexplodeinbothnumberandthedegreeofforceusedbybothsides.

So,ontheeconomicside,Chinanowalsohasagrandbargainwiththeworld—“We’llmakethestuffforcheap—youbuyitforcheap.”

Leave toone side the fact thatalready laborcostsare rising inChinaand it isbeing rivaledbyThailand and Indonesia, for price if not volume.What would happen if the resources required tomakethestuffdriedup,ifsomeoneelsegotthemfirst,oriftherewasanavalblockadeofyourgoods—inandout?Well,forthat,you’dneedanavy.

TheChineseweregreat seavoyagers, especially in the fifteenthcentury,when they roamed theIndian Ocean; Admiral Zheng He’s expedition ventured as far as Kenya. But these weremoneymakingexercises,notpowerprojections, and theywerenotdesigned tocreate forwardbasesthatcouldbeusedtosupportmilitaryoperations.

Having spent four thousand turbulentyears consolidating its landmass,China isnowbuildingablue-water navy. A green-water navy patrols its maritime borders, a blue-water navy patrols theoceans. Itwill takeanother thirtyyears (assumingeconomicprogression) forChina tobuildnavalcapacity to seriously challenge themost powerful seaborne force theworldhas ever seen—theUSNavy.But in themediumto short term,as itbuilds, and trains, and learns, theChinesenavywillbump up against its rivals in the seas; and how those bumps are managed—especially the Sino-Americanones—willdefinegreatpowerpoliticsinthiscentury.

The young seamennow training on the secondhand aircraft carrier thatChina salvaged from aUkrainianjunkyardwillbetheoneswho, if theymakeittotherankofadmiral,mayhavelearnedenoughtoknowhowtotakeatwelve-shipcarriergroupacrosstheworldandback—andifnecessaryfightawaralong theway.As someof the richerArabnationscame to realize, youcannotbuyanefficientmilitaryofftheshelf.

Gradually theChinesewillputmoreandmorevessels into the seasoff theircoastand into thePacific.EachtimeoneislaunchedtherewillbelessspacefortheAmericansintheChinaseas.TheAmericansknowthis,andknowtheChineseareworkingtowardaland-basedantishipmissilesystemtodoublethereasonswhytheUSNavy,oranyofitsallies,mightonedaywanttothinkhardaboutsailing through the South China Sea. Or indeed, any other “China sea.” And all the while, thedevelopingChinesespaceprojectwillbewatchingeverymovetheAmericansmake,andthoseofitsallies.

So,havinggoneclockwisearoundthelandborders,wenowlookeast,south,andsouthwesttowardthesea.

UnderthewaterChinaisplayingcatch-upinsubmarinewarfare.ItmaybeabletosurfaceasubnexttoaUScarriergroup,butitsunderwaterfleetistoonoisytohuntenemysubmarines.Whileitworks on this problem it is deploying anti-submarine ships and is busy installing a network ofunderwatersensorsintheEastandSouthChinaSeas.

BetweenChinaandthePacificisthearchipelagothatBeijingcallsthe“firstislandchain.”Thereisalsothe“nine-dashline,”morerecentlyturnedintotendashesin2013toincludeTaiwan,whichChinasaysmarksitsterritory.Thisdisputeoverownershipofmorethantwohundredtinyislandsand

reefsispoisoningChina’srelationswithitsneighbors.NationalpridemeansChinawantstocontrolthe passageways through the chain; geopolitics dictates it has to. It provides access to theworld’smost important shipping lanes in theSouthChinaSea. In peacetime the route is open in variousplaces,butinwartimeitcouldveryeasilybeblocked,thusblockadingChina.Allgreatnationsspendpeacetimepreparingforthedaywarbreaksout.

TheSouthChinaSea is a hotly contestedareabetweenChinaand its neighbors that leads to disputes over ownership ofislands,naturalresources,andcontroloftheseasandshippinglanes.

FreeaccesstothePacificisfirsthinderedbyJapan.ChinesevesselsemergingfromtheYellowSeaand rounding theKoreanPeninsulawouldhave togo through theSeaof Japanandup throughLaPerouseStraitaboveHokkaidoand intothePacific.Muchof this is JapaneseorRussianterritorialwaters,andatatimeofgreattension,orevenhostilities,wouldbeinaccessibletoChina.EveniftheymadeittheywouldstillhavetonavigatethroughtheKurilIslandsnortheastofHokkaido,whicharecontrolledbyRussiabutclaimedbyJapan.

Japan is also in disputewithChinaover the uninhabited island chain it calls Senkaku and theChineseknowasDiaoyu,northeastofTaiwan.Thisisthemostcontentiousofallterritorialclaimsbetween the two countries. If insteadChinese ships pass through, or indeed set off from, the EastChina Sea off Shanghai and go in a straight line toward the Pacific, they must pass the RyukyuIslands,whichincludeOkinawa—uponwhichthereisnotonlyahugeAmericanmilitarybase,butalsoasmanyshore-to-shipmissilesastheJapanesecanpileatthetipoftheisland.ThemessagefromTokyois:“Weknowyou’regoingoutthere,butdon’tmesswithusonthewayout.”

Another potential flare-upwith Japan centers on theEastChinaSea’s gas deposits.Beijinghasdeclared an “Air Defense Identification Zone” overmost of the sea, requiring prior notice beforeanyoneelsefliesthroughit.TheAmericansandJapanesearetryingtoignoreit,butitwillbecomeahotissueatatimeoftheirchoosingorduetoanaccidentthatismismanaged.

BelowOkinawaisTaiwan,whichsitsofftheChinesecoastandseparatestheEastChinaSeafromthe South China Sea. China claims Taiwan as its twenty-third province, but it is currently an

AmericanallywithanavyandairforcearmedtotheteethbyWashington.ItcameunderChinesecontrolintheseventeenthcenturybuthasonlybeenruledbyChinaforfiveyearsinthelastcentury(from1945to1949).

Taiwan’s official name is the Republic of China (ROC) to differentiate it from the People’sRepublicofChina,althoughtheROCclaimsitshouldgovernbothterritories.ThisisanameBeijingcanlivewith,asitdoesnotstatethatTaiwanisaseparatestate.AmericaiscommittedtodefendingTaiwan in the event of aChinese invasion under theTaiwanRelationsAct of 1979.However, ifTaiwan declares full independence from China, which China would consider an act of war, theUnitedStatesisnottocometoitsrescue,asthedeclarationwouldbeconsideredprovocative.

Thetwogovernmentsvieforrecognitionforthemselvesandnonrecognitionoftheotherineverysinglecountryintheworld,andinmostcasesBeijingwins.Whenyoucanofferapotentialmarketof1.4 billion people as opposed to 23million,most countries don’t need long to consider.However,therearetwenty-twocountries(mostlydevelopingstates;forexample,Swaziland,BurkinaFaso,andtheislandnationofSãoToméandPrincipe)thatdooptforTaiwanandthatareusuallyhandsomelyrewarded.

TheChinesearedeterminedtohaveTaiwanbutarenowherenearbeingabletochallengeforitmilitarily.Insteadtheyareusingsoftpowerbyincreasingtradeandtourismbetweenthetwostates.ChinawantstowooTaiwanbackintoitsarms.Duringthe2014studentprotestsinHongKong,oneofthereasonstheauthoritiesdidnotquicklybatterthemoffthestreets—astheywouldhavedonein,for example, Ürümqi—was that the world’s cameras were there and would have captured theviolence.InChinamuchofthisfootagewouldbeblocked,butinTaiwanpeoplewouldseewhattherest of theworld sawandask themselveshowclose a relationship theywantedwith suchapower.Beijinghesitated;itisplayingthelonggame.

The soft-power approach is to persuade the people of Taiwan they have nothing to fear inrejoiningthe“motherland.”TheAirDefenseIdentificationZone,thesurfacingnearUSships,andthebuildupofanavyarepartofa long-termplantoweakenAmericanresolvetodefendanisland140milesoffthecoastofmainlandChina,but6,400milesfromtheWestCoastoftheUnitedStates.

FromtheSouthChinaSea,Chineseshipswouldstillhaveproblems,whethertheyheadedtowardthePacificor the IndianOcean—which is theworld’swaterway for thegas andoilwithoutwhichChinawouldcollapse.

Togowestwardtowardtheenergy-producingstatesoftheGulftheymustpassVietnam,whichaswe have noted has recently been making overtures to the Americans. They must go near thePhilippines, a US ally, before trying to get through the Strait of Malacca between Malaysia,Singapore,andIndonesia,allofwhicharediplomaticallyandmilitarilylinkedtotheUnitedStates.Thestraitisapproximatelyfivehundredmileslongandatitsnarrowestpointislessthantwomileswide.Ithasalwaysbeenachokepoint—andtheChineseremainvulnerabletobeingchoked.Allofthestatesalongthestrait,andnearitsapproaches,areanxiousaboutChinesedominanceandmosthaveterritorialdisputeswithBeijing.

ChinaclaimsalmosttheentireSouthChinaSea,andtheenergysuppliesbelievedtobebeneathit,asitsown.However,Malaysia,Taiwan,Vietnam,thePhilippines,andBruneialsohaveterritorialclaimsagainstChinaandoneanother.Forexample,thePhilippinesandChinaarguebitterlyovertheMischiefIslands,alargereefintheSpratlyIslandsintheSouthChinaSea,whichonedaycouldliveuptotheirname.Everyoneofthehundredsofdisputedatolls,andsometimesjustrockspokingoutofthewater, couldbe turned into adiplomatic crisis, as surroundingeach rock is apotentialdisputeaboutfishingzones,explorationrights,andsovereignty.

To further these aims,China, using dredging and land reclamationsmethods, has embarked onturningaseriesofreefsandatollsindisputedterritoryintoislands.Forexample,one,whosename,FieryCrossReef,describedwhatitwas,hasbeenturnedintoanislandcompletewithportandrunwayintheSpratlyIslands.Anotherhashadartilleryunitsstationedonit.TherunwaycouldhostfighterjetsgivingChinafarmorecontroloftheskiesovertheregionthanitcurrentlyhas.

Speakinginthesummerof2015,USDefenseSecretaryAshCartersaid,“Turninganunderwaterrock into an airfield simply does not afford the rights of sovereignty or permit restrictions oninternational airormaritime transit.”Thiswas shortlyafterChinaannounced itwas switching itsmilitarypostureintheregionfromdefensetobothoffenseanddefense.ThemoveunderlinesChina’sintentiontobetherulemakerintheregionandforthatitwillbothcourtandthreatenitsneighbors.

Chinamustsecuretheseroutes,bothforitsgoodstogettomarketandfortheitemsrequiredtomakethosegoods—oil,gas,andpreciousmetalsamongthem—togetintoChina.Itcannotaffordtobeblockaded.Diplomacyisonesolution;theever-growingnavyisanother;butthebestguaranteesarepipelines,roads,andports.

DiplomaticallytheywillattempttopulltheSoutheastAsiannationsawayfromtheUnitedStatesusingboth carrot and stick.Toomuch stick and the countrieswill tie themselves ever closer intodefensetreatieswithWashington;toomuchcarrotandtheymaynotbendtoBeijing’swill.AtthemomenttheystilllookacrossthePacificforprotection.

ThemapsoftheregionthattheChinesenowprintshowalmostthewholeoftheSouthChinaSeaas theirs.This is a statement of intent, backed by aggressivenaval patrols andofficial statements.Beijing intends tochange itsneighbors’waysof thinkingandtochangeAmerica’swayof thinkingandbehaving—pushing andpushing an agendauntil its competitors backoff.At stakehere is theconceptofinternationalwatersandfreepassageinpeacetime;itisnotsomethingthatwilleasilybegivenupbytheotherpowers.

ThegeopoliticalwriterRobertD.KaplanexpoundsthetheorythattheSouthChinaSeaistotheChineseinthetwenty-firstcenturywhattheCaribbeanwastotheUnitedStatesatthebeginningofthetwentiethcentury.TheAmericans,havingconsolidatedtheirlandmass,hadbecomeatwo-oceanpower(AtlanticandPacific),andthenmovedtocontroltheseasaroundthem,pushingtheSpanishoutofCuba.

Chinaalsointendstobecomeatwo-oceanpower(PacificandIndian).Toachievethis,Chinaisinvesting in deep-water ports inBurma,Bangladesh, Pakistan, andSri Lanka—an investment thatbuysitgoodrelations,thepotentialforitsfuturenavytohavefriendlybasestovisitorresidein,andtradelinksbackhome.

TheIndianOceanandBayofBengalportsarepartofanevenbiggerplantosecureChina’sfuture.FromBurma’swestcoastline,ChinahasbuiltnaturalgasandoilpipelineslinkingtheBayofBengalup into southwest China—China’s way of reducing its nervous reliance on the Strait ofMalacca,throughwhichalmost80percentof its energy suppliespass.Thispartiallyexplainswhy,when theBurmesejuntabegantoslowlyopenuptotheoutsideworldin2010,itwasn’tjusttheChinesewhobeatapathtotheirdoor.TheAmericansandJapanesewerequicktoestablishbetterrelations,withbothPresidentObamaandPrimeMinisterAbeofJapangoingtopaytheirrespectsinperson.Iftheycan influence Burma, they can help keep China in check. So far, the Chinese are winning thisparticulargameontheglobalchessboard,buttheAmericansmaybeabletooutmusclethemaslongastheBurmesegovernmentisconfidentWashingtonwillstandbyit.

TheChinesearealsobuildingportsinKenya,railroadlinesinAngola,andahydroelectricdaminEthiopia.TheyarescouringthelengthandbreadthofthewholeofAfricaformineralsandprecious

metals.Chinese companies and workers are spread out across the world; slowly, China’s military will

follow. With great power comes great responsibility. China will not leave the sea-lanes in itsneighborhoodtobepolicedbytheAmericans.TherewillbeeventsthatrequiretheChinesetoactoutofregion.Anaturaldisasterora terrorist/hostage incident involving largenumbersofChineseworkerswould requireChina to take action, and that entails forward bases, or at least agreementsfromstatesthatChinacouldpassthroughtheirterritory.TherearenowtensofmillionsofChinesearoundtheworld,insomecaseshousedinhugecomplexesforworkersinpartsofAfrica.

Chinawillstruggletobecomeagileoverthenextdecade. ItcouldbarelymaneuverthePeople’sArmy’s equipment to help in the aftermath of the devastating 2008 earthquake in Sichuan. Itmobilized the army, but not their matériel; moving abroad at speed would be an even greaterchallenge.

This will change. China is not weighed down or motivated diplomatically or economically byhumanrightsinitsdealingswiththeworld.Itissecureinitsborders,strainingagainstthebondsofthe first islandchain, andnowmovingaround theglobewithconfidence. If it canavoida seriousconflictwithJapanortheUnitedStates,thentheonlyrealdangertoChinaisitself.

There are 1.4 billion reasons why China may succeed, and 1.4 billion reasons why it may notsurpassAmericaasthegreatestpowerintheworld.Agreatdepressionsuchasinthe1930scouldsetitbackdecades.Chinahas lockeditself intotheglobaleconomy.Ifwedon’tbuy,theydon’tmake.And if they don’t make, there will be mass unemployment. If there is mass and long-termunemployment, in an age when theChinese are a people packed into urban areas, the inevitablesocialunrestcouldbe—likeeverythingelseinmodernChina—onascalehithertounseen.

3

UNITEDSTATES

Reportsofmydeathhavebeengreatlyexaggerated.—MarkTwain,1897

Location,location,location.Ifyouwonthelottery,andwerelookingtobuyacountrytolivein,thefirstonetherealestateagentwouldshowyouwouldbetheUnitedStatesofAmerica.

Twainwasreferringtotheerroneousreportingofhisdeath,buthecouldhavebeentalkingabouttheoverreportingofthedemiseoftheUnitedStates.

It’s in a wonderful neighborhood, the views are marvelous, and there are some terrific waterfeatures,thetransportlinksareexcellent,andtheneighbors?Theneighborsaregreat,notroubleatall.

If you broke this living space up into numerous sections it would considerably lower its value,especiallyifthetenantsdidnotallspeakthesamelanguageandpaidtherentindifferentcurrencies,butasonehome,foronefamily—itcan’tbebettered.

TherearefiftyAmericanstates,buttheyadduptoonenationinawaythetwenty-eightsovereignstatesoftheEuropeanUnionnevercan.MostoftheEUstateshaveanationalidentityfarstronger,more defined, than any American state. It is easy to find a French person who is French first,Europeansecond,oronewhopayslittleallegiancetotheideaofEurope,butanAmericanidentifieswith their Union in a way few Europeans do theirs. This is explained by the geography, and thehistoryoftheunificationoftheUnitedStates.

Painting this vast country in bold, broad brushstrokes from east towest, you can divide it intothree.

First,thereistheEastCoastPlainleadingtotheAppalachianMountains,anareawellwateredbyshortbutnavigableriversandwithfertilesoil.Then,headingfartherwest,youhavetheGreatPlainsstretchingallthewaytotheRockyMountains,andwithinthissectionliestheMississippibasinwithitsnetworkofhuge,navigableriversflowingintotheMississippiRiverallthewaydowntotheGulfofMexico,whichisshelteredbythepeninsulaofFloridaandseveralislands.Onceoverthemassivemountain range that is theRockies you get to the desert, theSierraNevadaMountains, a narrowcoastalplain,andfinallytotheshoresofthePacificOcean.

To the north, above the Great Lakes, lies the Canadian Shield, the world’s largest area ofPrecambrian rock,muchofwhich forms abarrier tohuman settlement.To the southwest—desert.Geographyhaddeterminedthatifapoliticalentitycouldgettoandthencontroltheland“fromseato shining sea,” it would be a great power, the greatest history has known. Once that power wasachieved,theUnionwouldbecomemilitarily impossibleto invade.AswesaywithRussia, there is“strategicdepth”foradefendingforcetofallbackinto.Equallyimportant,anyonestupidenoughtocontemplateinvadingAmericawouldsoonreflectonthefactthatitcontainshundredsofmillionsof

guns,which are available to a population that takes its life, liberty, and pursuit of happiness veryseriously.InadditiontotheformidableUSArmedForces,thereistheNationalGuard,statepolice,andaswe’ve seen recently, anurbanpolice force thatcanquickly resembleamilitaryunit. In theevent of an invasion every US Folsom, Fairfax, and Farmerville would quickly resemble an IraqiFallujah.

ThesizeofCanada(andtoalesserextentMexico)isalsoanasset.Anyhostilepowerapproachinginstrengthfromtheseawouldhaveincrediblylongsupplylines,atruismforanysimilarlandforceaswell.But,toachievethisraregeographicalpositionofnearinvulnerabilityfromconventionalattack,firstthespacehadtobeacquiredandunified.Consideringthecontinentisthreethousandmilesfromcoasttocoast,thiswasachievedinanastonishinglyquicktime.

WhentheEuropeans firstbegan to landand stay in theearly seventeenthcentury, theyquicklyrealizedthattheeastcoastofthis“virgin”territorywaspackedwithnaturalharborsandfertilesoil.Herewasaplacewheretheycouldliveand,unliketheirhomecountries,aplacewheretheyhopedtheycouldlivefreely.Theirdescendantswouldgoontodenythenativeinhabitantstheirfreedom,butthatwasnottheintentionofthefirstsettlers.GeographypulledthemacrosstheAtlanticinevergreaternumbers.

The last of the original thirteen colonies to be established wasGeorgia in 1732. The thirteenbecameincreasinglyindependentmindedallthewayuptotheAmericanRevolutionaryWar(1775–83).Atthebeginningofthisperiod,thecolonies,whichgraduallybegantoconnecttooneanother,stretched one thousand miles from Massachusetts in the north, down to Georgia, and had anestimated combined population of approximately 2.5 million people. They were bounded by theAtlantictotheireastandtheAppalachianMountainstotheirwest.TheAppalachians,1,500mileslong, are impressive, but compared to the Rockies not particularly high. Nevertheless, they stillformedaformidablebarriertowestwardmovementfortheearlysettlers,whowerebusyconsolidatingwhat territory theyhad subdued andpreparing to govern it themselves.The colonistshad anotherbarrier,thisonepolitical.TheBritishgovernmentforbadesettlementwestoftheAppalachians,asitwantedtoensurethattrade,andtaxes,remainedontheEasternSeaboard.

TheDeclarationofIndependence(1776)states:“Wheninthecourseofhumanevents,itbecomesnecessary foronepeople todissolve thepolitical bandswhichhave connected themwith another,andtoassumethePowersoftheearth,theseparateandequalstationtowhichtheLawsofNatureandofNature’sGod entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions ofmankind requires that theyshoulddeclarethecauseswhichimpelthemtotheseparation.”Itgoesontooutlineatsomelengththosecauses,andtostate(withnohintofslave-owningirony)thatitwasself-evidentthatallmenwerecreatedequal.ThesenoblesentimentshelpedtofuelthevictoryintheWarofIndependence,whichinturngavebirthtoanewnationstate.

Intheearly1800sthisnewcountry’sleadershipstillhadlittleideathatitwasthousandsofmilesfromthe“southsea,”orPacific.UsingNativeAmericantrails,a fewexplorers, forwhomthewordintrepidcouldhavebeencoined,hadpushedthroughtheAppalachiansandreachedtheMississippi.Theretheythoughttheymightfindawaterwayleadingtotheoceanandthusjoiningupwiththevasttracts of lands the Spanish had explored across the southwestern and Pacific coastal regions,includingwhatarenowTexasandCalifornia.

AtthispointthefledglingUnitedStateswasfarfromsecure,andif ithadbeenrestrictedtoitsthenboundaries itwouldhavestruggledtobecomeagreatpower. Itscitizensalreadyhadaccess totheOhioRiver, justwestof theAppalachians,but that ledtotheMississippi,whosewesternbankwas controlled by the French all theway down to the city ofNewOrleans.This gave the French

commandofAmericantradeheadingouttotheOldWorldfromtheGulfofMexico,aswellasthevast territory to the west in what is now the American heartland. In 1802, a year after ThomasJeffersonassumedthepresidency,hewrote:“There isontheglobeonesinglespot, thepossessorofwhichisournaturalandhabitualenemy.ItisNewOrleans.”

SoFrancewasthepossessorandtheproblem;butthesolution,unusually,wasnotwarfare.In1803,theUnitedStates simplyboughtcontrolof theentireLouisianaTerritory fromFrance.

ThelandstretchedfromtheGulfofMexiconorthwestuptotheheadwatersofthetributariesoftheMississippiRiver in theRockyMountains. Itwas an area equivalent in size tomodern-daySpain,Italy, France, the UK, and Germany combined. With it came the Mississippi basin, from whichflowedAmerica’sroutetogreatness.

At the stroke of a pen, and the handing over of $15 million, the Louisiana Purchase of 1803doubled the sizeof theUnitedStates and gave itmasteryover the greatest inlandwater transportrouteintheworld.AstheAmericanhistorianHenryAdamswrote,“NeverdidtheUnitedStatesgetsomuchforsolittle.”

The greaterMississippi basin hasmoremiles of navigable river than the rest of the world puttogether.Nowhereelsearetheresomanyriverswhosesourceisnotinhighlandandwhosewatersrunsmoothlyall theway to theoceanacrossvastdistances.TheMississippi, fedbymuchof thebasinriversystem,beginsnearMinneapolisandends1,800milessouthintheGulfofMexico.Sotheriverswerethenaturalconduit forever-increasingtrade, leadingtoagreatportandallusingwaterbornecraftthatwas,andis,manytimescheaperthanroadtravel.

TheAmericansnowhadstrategicgeographicaldepth,amassivefertileland,andanalternativetotheAtlanticportswithwhichtoconductbusiness.Theyalsohadever-expandingrouteseasttowestlinking the EastCoast to the new territory, and then the river systems flowing north to south toconnectthethensparselypopulatedlandswithoneanother,thusencouragingAmericatoformasasingleentity.

Therewasnowasensethatthenationwouldbecomeacolossus,acontinentalpower.Theypushedonward,everwestward,butwithaneyeonthesouthandthesecurityofthejewelinthecrown—theMississippi.

By1814theBritishhadgone,andtheFrenchhadgivenuponLouisiana.ThetricknowwastogettheSpanishtogo.Itwasn’ttoodifficult.TheSpanishwereexhaustedbythewarinEuropeagainstNapoleon;theAmericanswerepushingtheSeminolenationintoSpanishFlorida,andMadridknewthatwavesofsettlerswouldbefollowing.In1819theSpanishcededFloridatotheUnitedStatesandwithitamassiveamountofterritory.

The Louisiana Purchase had given the United States the heartland, but the TranscontinentalTreatyof1819gave themsomethingalmostasvaluable.TheSpanishaccepted that theUSwouldhavejurisdictioninthefarwestabovethe42ndparallelonwhatisnowtheborderofCaliforniaandOregon while Spain would control what lay below, west of theAmerican territories. TheUnitedStateshadreachedthePacific.

Atthetime,mostAmericansthoughtthegreatvictoryof1819wasgettingFlorida,butSecretaryofStateJohnQuincyAdamswroteinhisdiary:“Theacquisitionofadefinitelineofboundarytothe[Pacific]formsagreatepochinourhistory.”

ButtherewasanotherSpanish-speakingproblem—Mexico.Because the Louisiana Purchase doubled the size of the United States, when Mexico became

independentofSpainin1821itsborderwasjusttwohundredmilesfromtheportofNewOrleans.Inthe twenty-first century, Mexico poses no territorial threat to the United States, although its

proximitycausesAmericaproblems,asitfeedsitsnorthernneighbor’sappetiteforillegallaboranddrugs.

In1821thatwasdifferent.MexicocontrolledlandallthewayuptoNorthernCalifornia,whichtheUnitedStatescouldlivewith,butitalsostretchedouteast,includingwhatisnowTexas,which,thenasnow,bordersLouisiana.Mexico’spopulationatthetimewas6.2million,theUnitedStates’s9.6 million. The US army may have been able to see off the mighty British, but they had beenfightingthreethousandmilesfromhomewithsupplylinesacrossanocean.TheMexicanswerenextdoor.

Quietly,Washington,DC, encouragedAmericans, and new arrivals, to begin to settle on bothsidesoftheUS–Mexicanborder.Wavesof immigrantscameandspreadwestandsouthwest.Therewas little chanceof themputtingdown roots in the regionwenowknowasmodernMexico, thusassimilating, and boosting, the population numbers there.Mexico is not blessed in theAmericanway. It has poor-quality agricultural land, no river system to use for transport, and was whollyundemocratic,withnewarrivalshavinglittlechanceofeverbeinggrantedland.

While the infiltration of Texas was going on, Washington, DC, issued the Monroe Doctrine(namedafterPresidentJamesMonroe)in1823,whichboileddowntowarningtheEuropeanpowersthat theycouldno longer seek land in theWesternHemisphere, and that if they lost anypartsoftheirexistingterritorytheycouldnotreclaimthem.Orelse.

By the mid-1830s there were enough white settlers in Texas to force the Mexican issue. TheMexican, Catholic, Spanish-speaking population numbered in the low thousands, but there wereapproximatelytwentythousandwhiteProtestantsettlers.TheTexasRevolutionof1835–36drovetheMexicansout,butitwasaclose-runthing,andhadthesettlerslostthen,theMexicanarmywouldhavebeeninapositiontomarchonNewOrleansandcontrolthesouthernendoftheMississippi.Itisoneofthegreatwhat-ifsofmodernhistory.

However, history turned the other way and Texas became independent, via American money,arms,andideas.TheterritorywentontojointheUnionin1845andtogethertheyfoughtthe1846–48MexicanWar,inwhichtheycrushedtheirsouthernneighbor,whichwasrequiredtoacceptthatMexicoendedinthesandsofthesouthernbankoftheRioGrande.

WithCalifornia,NewMexico,andlandthatisnowArizona,Nevada,Utah,andpartofColoradoincluded,thebordersofthecontinentalUnitedStatesthenlookedsimilartothoseoftoday,andtheyareinmanywaysnaturalborders.Inthesouth,theRioGranderunsthroughdesert;tothenorthareGreatLakesandrockylandwithfewpeopleclosetotheborder,especiallyintheeasternhalfofthecontinent;andtotheeastandwestarethegreatoceans.However,inthetwenty-firstcentury,inthesouthwesttheculturalhistoricalmemoryoftheregionasHispaniclandislikelytoresurface,asthedemographics are changing rapidly and Hispanics will be the majority population within a fewdecades.

Butbackto1848.TheEuropeanshadgone,theMississippibasinwassecurefromlandattack,thePacific was reached, and it was obvious that the remaining Native American nations would besubdued: there was no threat to the United States. It was time to make some money, and thenventureoutacrosstheseastosecuretheapproachestothethreecoastlinesofthesuperpower-to-be.

TheCaliforniagoldrushof1848–49helped,buttheimmigrantswereheadingwestanyway;afterall, there was a continental empire to build, and as it developed,more immigrants followed. TheHomesteadActof1862awarded160acresoffederallyownedlandtoanyonewhofarmeditforfiveyearsandpaidasmall fee.IfyouwereapoormanfromGermany,Scandinavia,orItaly,whygotoLatinAmericaandbeaserf,whenyoucouldgototheUnitedStatesandbeafreeland-owningman?

In1867,AlaskawasboughtfromRussia.Atthetimeitwasknownas“Seward’sFolly,”namedforthesecretaryofstate,WilliamSeward,whoagreedtothedeal.Hepaid$7.2million,ortwocents,anacre.Thepressaccusedhimofpurchasingsnow,butmindswerechangedwiththediscoveryofgoldin1896.Decadeslater,hugereservesofoilwerealsofound.

Twoyearson,in1869,cametheopeningofthetranscontinentalrailroad.Nowyoucouldcrossthecountryinaweek,whereasithadpreviouslytakenseveralhazardousmonths.

As the country grew, and grewwealthy, it began todevelop ablue-waternavy. Formost of thenineteenth century, foreign policywas dominated by expanding trade and avoiding entanglementsoutsidetheneighborhood,butitwastimetopushoutandprotecttheapproachestothecoastlines.TheonlyrealthreatwasfromSpain—itmayhavebeenpersuadedtoleavethemainland,butitstillcontrolledtheislandsofCuba,PuertoRico,andpartofwhatisnowtheDominicanRepublic.

CubainparticularkeptAmericanpresidentsawakeatnight,asitwouldagainin1962duringtheCubanMissileCrisis.TheislandsitsjustoffFlorida,givingitaccesstoandpotentialcontroloftheStraitsofFloridaandtheYucatánChannelintheGulfofMexico.ThisistheexitandentryroutefortheportofNewOrleans.

Spain’s powermayhavebeendiminishing toward the endof thenineteenthcentury, but itwasstill a formidablemilitary force. In 1898, theUS declared war on Spain, routed its military, andgainedcontrolofCuba,withPuertoRico,Guam,and thePhilippines thrown in forgoodmeasure.Theywouldallcomeinuseful,butGuaminparticularisavitalstrategicassetandCubaastrategicthreatifcontrolledbyamajorpower.

In1898thatthreatwasremovedbywarwithSpain.In1962itwasremovedbythethreatofwarwiththeSovietUnionafter theyblinked first.Todaynogreatpower sponsorsCubaand itappearsdestinedtocomeunderthecultural,andprobablypolitical,influenceoftheUnitedStatesagain.

Americawasmovingquickly. In the sameyear it securedCuba, theStraits of Florida, and to agreat extent the Caribbean. It also annexed the Pacific island of Hawaii, thus protecting theapproachestoitsownWestCoast.In1903,AmericasignedatreatyleasingitexclusiverightstothePanamaCanal.Tradewasbooming.

ThetimewasrightfortheUnitedStatestoshowithadmorethanarrivedontheworldstage,andwhatbetterwaytodemonstratethatthanashowofforcecircumnavigatingtheglobe.

PresidentTheodoreRoosevelt was speaking relatively softly—but in essence he “sailed” a largestick around theworld. Sixteen navy battleships from theAtlantic force set out from theUnitedStates in December 1907. Their hulls were painted white, the navy’s peacetime color, and thisimpressive example of diplomatic signaling became known as “the Great White Fleet.” Over thefollowingfourteenmonthsthefleetcalledontwentyports,includingonesinBrazil,Chile,Mexico,NewZealand,Australia,thePhilippines,Japan,China,Italy,andEgypt.OfthesethemostimportantwasJapan,whowasputonnoticethatinextremisAmerica’sAtlanticfleetcouldbedeployedtothePacific.Thevoyage,amixtureofhardandsoftpower,precededthemilitarytermforceprojection,butthatiswhatitwas,anditwasdulynotedbyeverymajorpowerintheworld.

Most subsequentpresidentsbore inmindGeorgeWashington’s advice inhis farewell address in1796 not to get involved in “inveterate antipathies against particular nations, and passionateattachments forothers,”and to “steerclearofpermanentallianceswithanyportionof the foreignworld.”

Apart from a late—albeit crucial—entry into the FirstWorldWar, twentieth-centuryAmericadidmanage,mostly,toavoidentanglementsandalliancesuntil1941.

TheSecondWorldWarchangedeverything.TheUnitedStateswasattackedbyan increasinglymilitaristicJapanafterWashingtonimposedeconomicsanctionsonTokyothatwouldhavebroughtthe country to its knees.TheAmericans cameout swinging.Theyprojected theirnowvast poweraroundtheworld,andinordertokeepthingsthatway,thistimetheydidn’tgohome.

Astheworld’sgreatesteconomicandmilitarypostwarpower,Americanowneededtocontroltheworld’ssea-lanes,tokeepthepeace,andgetthegoodstomarket.

Theywere “the lastman standing.”TheEuropeans had exhausted themselves; their economies,liketheir townsandcities,were inruins.Meanwhile, theJapanesewerecrushed; theChinesewerebothdevastatedandatwarwitheachother;andtheRussiansweren’teveninthecapitalistgame.

A century earlier, theBritish had learned they needed forward bases and coaling stations fromwhichtoprojectandprotecttheirnavalpower.Now,withBritainindecline,theAmericanslookedlasciviouslyattheBritishassetsandsaid,“Nicebases—we’llhavethem.”

Thepricewas right. In the autumnof 1940, theBritishdesperatelyneededmorewarships.TheAmericanshad fiftytospareandso,withwhatwascalledtheDestroyers forBasesAgreement, theBritish swapped their ability to be a global power for help in remaining in thewar.Almost everyBritishnavalbaseintheWesternHemispherewashandedover.

Thiswas,andisstill,forallcountries,aboutconcrete.Concreteforthebuildingofports,runways,hardenedaircrafthangars,fueldepots,drydocks,andSpecialForcestrainingareas.IntheEast,afterthedefeatofJapan,AmericaseizedtheopportunitytobuildthesealloverthePacific.Guam,halfwayacross,theyalreadyhad;nowtheyhadbasesrightuptotheJapaneseislandofOkinawaintheEastChinaSea.

TheAmericansalsolookedtotheland.IftheyweregoingtopaytoreconstructEuropethroughtheMarshallPlanof1948–51,theyhadtoensurethattheSovietUnionwouldn’twrecktheplaceandreachtheAtlanticcoast.Thedoughboysdidn’tgohome.InsteadtheysetupshopinGermanyandfaceddowntheRedArmyacrosstheNorthEuropeanPlain.

In1949,WashingtonledtheformationofNATOandwithiteffectivelyassumedcommandoftheWesternworld’s survivingmilitarymight.The civilianheadofNATOmaywell be aBelgianoneyear, a Brit the next, but themilitary commander is always anAmerican, and by far the greatestfirepowerwithinNATOisAmerican.

Nomatterwhatthetreatysays,NATO’sSupremeCommanderultimatelyanswerstoWashington.TheUKandFrancewould learn at their expenseduring theSuezCrisis of 1956—when theywerecompelled byAmerican pressure to cease their occupation of the canal zone, losingmost of theirinfluenceintheMiddleEastasaresult—thataNATOcountrydoesnotholdastrategicnavalpolicywithoutfirstaskingWashington.

With Iceland,Norway,Britain, and Italy (all foundingmembersofNATO)havinggranted theUnited States access and rights to their bases, it now dominated the North Atlantic and theMediterraneanaswellasthePacific.In1951,itextendeditsdominationtheredowntothesouthbyforminganalliancewithAustraliaandNewZealand,andalsotothenorthfollowingtheKoreanWarof1950–53.

TherewerenowtwomapsoftheUnitedStates.ThefamiliaronestretchingdiagonallydownfromSeattleonthePacificcoasttothepanhandleintheSargassoSea,andthepartreal/partconceptualoneofAmerica’sgeopolitical-powerfootprint.

Thismap consisted of the bases, ports, and runways you couldmark on the page, but also theconceptual map, the one that told you that in the event of situation A happening in region B,countryCcouldbereliedupontosidewiththeUnitedStatesandviceversa.Ifamajorpowerwanted

to play anywhere, it knew that if it chose to, theUnited States could have a dog in the fight.Asuperpowerhadarrived.

In the 1960s, theUnitedStates’s failure inVietnamdamaged its confidence andmade itmorecautiousabout foreignentanglements.However,whatwaseffectivelyadefeatdidnot substantiallyalterAmerica’sglobalstrategy.

TherewerenowonlythreeplacesfromwhichachallengetoAmericanhegemonycouldcome:aunitedEurope,Russia,andChina.Allwouldgrowstronger,buttwowouldreachtheirlimits.

The dream of some Europeans of an EU with “ever closer union” and a common foreign anddefensepolicyisdyingslowlybeforeoureyes,andevenifitwerenot,theEUcountriesspendsolittleondefensethatultimatelytheyremainreliantontheUnitedStates.Theeconomiccrashof2008haslefttheEuropeanpowersreducedincapacityandwithlittleappetiteforforeignadventures.

In1991,theRussianthreathadbeenseenoffduetotheirownstaggeringeconomicincompetence,militaryoverstretch,andfailuretopersuadethesubjectedmassesintheirempirethatgulagsandtheoverproductionofstate-fundedtractorswasthewayahead.TherecentpushbackbyPutin’sRussiaisathorn inAmerica’s side,butnota serious threat toAmerica’sdominance.WhenPresidentObamadescribed Russia as “no more than a regional power” in 2014, he may have been needlesslyprovocative,buthewasn’twrong.ThebarsofRussia’sgeographicalprison,asseeninchapterone,arestillinplace:theystilllackawarm-waterportwithaccesstotheglobalsea-lanesandstilllackthemilitarycapacity inwartimetoreachtheAtlanticviatheBalticandNorthSeas,ortheBlackSeaandtheMediterranean.

TheUnitedStateswaspartiallybehindthechangeofgovernmentinUkrainein2014.Itwantedtoextenddemocracy intheworld,and itwantedtopullUkraineaway fromRussian influenceandthus weaken President Putin. Washington knows that during the last decade, as America wasdistractedinIraqandAfghanistan,theRussianstookadvantageinwhattheycalltheir“nearabroad,”regainingasolidfootinginplacessuchasKazakhstanandseizingterritoryinGeorgia.Belatedly,andsomewhathalf-heartedly,theAmericanshavebeentryingtorollbackRussiangains.

AmericanscareaboutEurope,theycareaboutNATO,andtheywillsometimesact(ifitisintheAmerican interest), butRussia is now, for theAmericans,mostly a European problem, albeit onetheykeepaneyeon.

ThatleavesChina,andChinarising.Mostanalysiswrittenoverthepastdecadeassumesthatbythemiddleofthetwenty-firstcentury

China will overtake the United States and become the leading superpower. For reasons partiallydiscussedinchaptertwo,Iamnotconvinced.Itmaytakeacentury.

EconomicallytheChineseareontheirwaytomatchingtheAmericans,andthatbuysthemalotofinfluenceandaplaceatthetoptable,butmilitarilyandstrategicallytheyaredecadesbehind.TheUnitedStateswillspendthosedecadesattemptingtoensureitstaysthatway,butitfeelsinevitablethatthegapwillclose.

Theconcretecostsalot.Notjusttomixandpour,buttobeallowedtomixandpouritwhereyouwant to. As we saw with the Destroyers for Bases Agreement, American assistance to othergovernments isnotalwaysentirely altruistic. Economic and, equally important,military assistancebuyspermissiontopourtheconcrete,butmuchmoreaswell,evenifthereisalsoanaddedcost.

Forexample,WashingtonmightbeoutragedathumanrightsabusesinSyria(ahostilestate)andexpressitsopinionsloudly,butitsoutrageatabusesinBahrainmightbesomewhatmoredifficulttohear,muffledasithasbeenbytheenginesoftheUS5thFleet,whichisbasedinBahrainastheguestof the Bahraini government. On the other hand, assistance does buy the ability to suggest to

governmentB(sayBurma)thatitmightwanttoresisttheoverturesofgovernmentC(sayChina).Inthatparticularexample,theUnitedStatesisbehindthecurvebecausetheBurmesegovernmentonlyrecentlybegantoopenuptomostoftheoutsideworldandBeijinghasaheadstart.

However, when it comes to Japan, Thailand, Vietnam, South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia,Indonesia, and others, the Americans are pushing at a door already open due to those countries’anxiety about their giant neighbor and keenness to engage with Washington. They may all haveissues with one another, but those issues are dwarfed by the knowledge that if they do not standtogethertheywillbepickedoffonebyoneandeventuallyfallunderChinesehegemony.

TheUnitedStates is still in the opening phase ofwhat in 2011 then secretary of stateHillaryClinton called “the pivot to China.” It was an interesting phrase, taken by some to mean theabandonmentofEurope;butapivottowardoneplacedoesnotmeantheabandonmentofanother.Itismoreacaseofhowmuchweightyouputonwhichfoot.

ManyUSgovernmentforeignpolicystrategistsarepersuadedthatthehistoryofthetwenty-firstcenturywillbewritteninAsiaandthePacific.Halfoftheworld’spopulationlivesthere,andifIndiaisincludeditisexpectedtoaccountforhalfoftheglobaleconomicoutputby2050.

Hence, we will see the United States increasingly investing time and money in East Asia toestablish its presence and intentions in the region. For example, in Northern Australia theAmericanshavesetupabasefortheUSMarineCorps.Butinordertoexertrealinfluencetheymayalso have to invest in limitedmilitary action to reassure their allies that theywill come to theirrescue intheeventofhostilities.Forexample, ifChinabegins shellinga Japanesedestroyerand itlooks as if theymight take further military action, theUSNavymay have to fire warning shotstoward the Chinese navy, or even fire directly, to signal that it is willing to go to war over theincident. Equally,whenNorthKorea fires at SouthKorea, the South fires back, but currently theUnitedStates doesnot. Instead, it puts forces on alert in a publicmanner to send a signal. If thesituationescalateditwouldthenfirewarningshotsataNorthKoreantarget,andfinally,directshots.It’sawayofescalatingwithoutdeclaringwar—andthisiswhenthingsgetdangerous.

TheUnitedStatesisseekingtodemonstratetothewholeregionthatitisintheirbestintereststoside with Washington—China is doing the opposite. So, when challenged, each side must react,because foreachchallenge itducks, itsallies’confidence,andcompetitors’ fear, slowlydrainsawayuntileventuallythereisaneventthatpersuadesastatetoswitchsides.

Analystsoftenwriteabouttheneedforcertainculturesnottoloseface,oreverbeseentobackdown, but this is not just a problem in theArab or East Asian cultures—it is a human problemexpressedindifferentways.Itmaywellbemoredefinedandopenlyarticulatedinthosetwocultures,butAmerican foreign policy strategists are as aware of the issue as any other power. The Englishlanguageevenhastwosayingsthatdemonstratehowdeeplyingrainedtheideais:“Givethemaninchandthey’lltakeamile,”andPresidentTheodoreRoosevelt’smaximof1900,whichhasnowenteredthepoliticallexicon:“Speaksoftlyandcarryabigstick.”

Thedeadly game in this centurywill behow theChinese,Americans, andothers in the regionmanageeachcrisisthatariseswithoutlosingfaceandwithoutbuildingupadeepwellofresentmentandangeronbothsides.

TheCubanMissileCrisis isgenerallyconsideredanAmericanvictory;what is lesspublicized isthat several months after Russia removed its missiles from Cuba, the United States removed itsJupitermissiles(whichcouldreachMoscow)fromTurkey.Itwasactuallyacompromise,withbothsides,eventually,abletotelltheirrespectivepublicsthattheyhadnotcapitulated.

In the twenty-first-century Pacific there aremore great-power compromises to bemade. In theshort term,most, butnot all, are likely tobemade by theChinese—an early example isBeijing’sdeclarationof anAirDefense IdentificationZone requiring foreignnations to inform thembeforeenteringwhatisdisputedterritory,andtheAmericansdeliberatelyflyingthroughitwithouttellingthem.TheChinesegainedsomethingbydeclaringthezoneandmakingitanissue;theUnitedStatesgainedsomethingbybeingseennottocomply.Itisalonggame.

TheUSpolicyregardingtheJapaneseistoreassurethemthattheysharestrategicinterestsvis-à-vis China and ensure that theUS base inOkinawa remains open. TheAmericans will assist theJapaneseSelf-DefenseForcetobearobustbody,butsimultaneouslyrestrictJapan’smilitaryabilitytochallengetheUnitedStatesinthePacific.

While all the other countries in the regionmatter, inwhat is a complicated diplomatic jigsawpuzzle, the key states look to be Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore. These three sit astride thenarrowStraitofMalacca.Everydaythroughthatstraitcome12millionbarrelsofoilheadingforanincreasingly thirsty China and elsewhere in the region. As long as these three countries are pro-American,theAmericanshaveakeyadvantage.

On the plus side, the Chinese are not politically ideological, they do not seek to spreadCommunism,nordotheycovet(much)moreterritoryinthewaytheRussiansdidduringtheColdWar,andneithersideislookingforconflict.TheChinesecanacceptAmericaguardingmostofthesea-lanesthatdeliverChinesegoodstotheworld,solongastheAmericansacceptthattherewillbelimitstojusthowclosetoChinathatcontrolextends.

Therewillbearguments,andnationalismwillbeusedtoensuretheunityoftheChinesepeoplefromtimetotime,buteachsidewillbeseekingcompromise.Thedangercomesiftheymisreadeachotherand/orgambletoomuch.

Thereareflashpoints.America’streatywithTaiwanstatesiftheChineseinvadewhattheyregardastheir23rdprovince,theUnitedStateswillgotowar.AredlineforChina,whichcouldsparkaninvasion,isformalrecognitionofTaiwanbytheUnitedStates,oradeclarationofindependencebyTaiwan.However,thereisnosignofthat,andaChineseinvasioncannotbeseenonthissideofthehorizon.

AsChina’sthirstforforeignoilandgasgrows,thatoftheUnitedStatesdeclines.Thiswillhaveahuge impact on its foreign relations, especially in the Middle East, with ramifications for othercountries.

DuetooffshoredrillinginUScoastalwaters,andundergroundfrackingacrosshugeregionsofthecountry,America looksdestined tobecomenot just self-sufficient inenergy,but anet exporterofenergyby2020.ThiswillmeanthatitsfocusonensuringaflowofoilandgasfromtheGulfregionwilldiminish.Itwillstillhavestrategicintereststhere,butthefocuswillnolongerbesointense.IftheAmericanattentionwanes,theGulfnationswillseeknewalliances.OnecandidatewillbeIran,anotherChina,but thatwill onlyhappenwhen theChinesehavebuilt theirblue-waternavy and,equallyimportant,arepreparedtodeployit.

TheUS5thFleetisnotabouttosailawayfromitsportinBahrain—thatisapieceofconcreteitwouldgiveup reluctantly.However, if theenergy suppliesofSaudiArabia,Kuwait, theUAE,andQatararenolongerrequiredtokeepAmericanlightsonandcarsontheroad,theAmericanpublicandCongresswillask“Whatisittherefor?”Iftheresponseis“TocheckIran,”itmaynotbeenoughto quash the debate, especially in light of President Obama’s deal with Tehran on its nuclearcapabilities.

ElsewhereintheMiddleEast,USpolicyintheshorttermistoattempttoensureIrandoesnotbecometoostrong,butatthesametimebuildonthatnucleardealtotryandreachwhatisknownasthe“grandbargain”—anagreementsettlingthemanyissuesthatdividethetwocountries,andendingthreeandahalfdecadesofenmity.WiththeArabnationsembarkingonwhatmaybeadecades-longstruggle with armed Islamists, Washington looks as if it has given up on the optimistic idea ofencouragingJeffersoniandemocraciestoemergeandwillconcentrateonattemptingtomanagethesituation,whileatthesametimedesperatelytryingnottogetsandonthebootsofUSsoldiers.

The close relationship with Israel may cool, albeit slowly, as the demographics of the UnitedStateschange.ThechildrenoftheHispanicandAsianimmigrantsnowarrivingintheUnitedStateswillbemore interested inLatinAmericaand theFarEast than ina tinycountryontheedgeofaregionnolongervitaltoAmericaninterests.

Thepolicy inLatinAmericawillbe toensure that thePanamaCanal remainsopen, to inquireabouttheratestopassthroughtheproposedNicaraguancanaltothePacific,andtokeepaneyeontheriseofBrazilincaseitgetsanyideasaboutitsinfluenceintheCaribbeanSea.EconomicallytheUnited States will also compete withChina throughout LatinAmerica for influence, but only inCubawouldWashingtonpulloutallthestopstoensureitdominatesthepost-Castro/Communistera.TheproximityofCubatoFlorida,thehistoricrelationship(albeitmixed),andChinesepragmatismshouldbeenoughtoensurethattheUnitedStateswillbethedominantpowerinthenewCuba.

InAfrica,theAmericansarebutonenationseekingthecontinent’snaturalwealth,butthenationfindingmostofitisChina.AsintheMiddleEast,theUnitedStateswillwatchtheIslamiststruggleinNorthAfricawithinterestbuttrynottogetinvolvedmuchcloserthanthirtythousandfeetabovetheground.

America’sexperimentwithnationbuildingoverseasappearstobeover.InIraq,Afghanistan,andelsewhere,theUnitedStatesunderestimatedthementalityandstrength

ofsmallpowersandoftribes.TheAmericans’ownhistoryofphysicalsecurityandunitymayhaveledthem to overestimate the power of their democratic rationalist argument, which believes thatcompromise,hardwork,andevenvotingwouldtriumphoveratavistic,deep-seatedhistoricalfearsof“theother,”betheySunni,Shia,Kurd,Arab,Muslim,orChristian.Theyassumedpeoplewouldwanttocometogether,whereasinfactmanydarenottryandwouldprefertoliveapartbecauseoftheirexperiences.Itisasadreflectionuponhumanity,butitappearsthroughoutmanyperiodsofhistory,andinmanyplaces,tobeanunfortunatetruth.TheAmericanactionstookthelidoffasimmeringpotthathadtemporarilyhiddenthattruth.

ThisdoesnotmakeAmericanpolicymakers“naive,”assomeofthesnootierEuropeandiplomatsliketobelieve;buttheydohavea“cando”anda“canfix”attitude,whichinevitablywillnotalwayswork.

ForthirtyyearsithasbeenfashionabletopredicttheimminentorongoingdeclineoftheUnitedStates.This isaswrongnowas itwas in thepast.Theplanet’smost successfulcountry isabout tobecomeself-sufficientinenergy,itremainsthepreeminenteconomicpower,anditspendsmoreonresearchanddevelopment for itsmilitary than theoverallmilitarybudgetof all theotherNATOcountries combined. Its population is not aging as in Europe and Japan, and a 2013 Gallup Pollshowedthat25percentofallpeoplehopingtoemigrateputtheUnitedStatesastheirfirstchoiceofdestination. In the same year, Shanghai University listed what its experts judged the top-twentyuniversitiesoftheworld:seventeenwereintheUnitedStates.

ThePrussianstatesmanOttovonBismarck, inadouble-edgedremark,saidmorethanacenturyago that “God has a special providence for fools, drunks, and the United States of America.” It

appearsstilltobetrue.

4

WESTERNEUROPE

Herethepastwaseverywhere,anentirecontinentsownwithmemories.—MirandaRichmondMouillot,AFifty-YearSilence:Love,War,andaRuinedHouseinFrance

The modern world, for better or worse, springs from Europe. This western outpost of the greatEurasian landmassgavebirth to theEnlightenment,which led to the IndustrialRevolution,whichhas resulted inwhat we now see around us every day. For that, we can give thanks to, or blame,Europe’slocation.

The climate, fed by the Gulf Stream, blessed the region with the right amount of rainfall tocultivatecropsona large scale, and the right typeof soil for themto flourish in.Thisallowed forpopulationgrowthinanareainwhich,formost,workwaspossibleyear-round,evenintheheightofsummer.Winteractuallyaddsabonus,withtemperatureswarmenoughtoworkinbutcoldenoughtokilloffmanyofthegerms,whichtothisdayplaguehugepartsoftherestoftheworld.

Goodharvestsmean surplus food that canbe traded; this in turnbuildsup tradingcenters thatbecome towns. It also allows people to think of more than just growing food and to turn theirattentiontoideasandtechnology.

WesternEuropehasnorealdeserts,thefrozenwastesareconfinedtoafewareasinthefarnorth,andearthquakes,volcanoes, andmassive floodingare rare.The riversare long, flat,navigable, andmadefortrade.Astheyemptyintoavarietyofseasandoceans,theyflowintocoastlinesthatare—west,north,andsouth—abundantinnaturalharbors.

IfyouarereadingthistrappedinasnowstormintheAlps,orwaiting for floodwaters to subsidebackintotheDanube,thenEurope’sgeographicalblessingsmaynotseemtooapparent;but,relativetomanyplaces,ablessingtheyare.ThesearethefactorsthatledtotheEuropeanscreatingthefirstindustrializednationstates,whichinturnledthemtobethefirsttoconductindustrial-scalewar.

IfwetakeEuropeasawhole,weseethemountains,rivers,andvalleysthatexplainwhythereareso many nation states. Unlike the United States, in which one dominant language and culturepressed rapidlyandviolentlyeverwestward,creatingagiantcountry,Europegreworganicallyovermillenniaandremainsdividedbetweenitsgeographicalandlinguisticregions.

The various tribes of the Iberian Peninsula, for example, prevented from expanding north intoFrance by the presence of the Pyrenees, gradually came together, over thousands of years, to formSpainandPortugal—andevenSpain isnotanentirelyunitedcountry,withCatalonia increasinglyvocalaboutwantingitsindependence.Francehasalsobeenformedbynaturalbarriers,framedasitisbythePyrenees,theAlps,theRhine,andtheAtlanticOcean.

Europe’smajor riversdonotmeet (unlessyoucount theSava,whichdrains into theDanube inBelgrade).Thispartlyexplainswhytherearesomanycountries inwhat isa relativelysmall space.Becausetheydonotconnect,mostoftheriversact,atsomepoint,asboundaries,andeachisasphere

ofeconomicinfluenceinitsownright;thisgaverisetoatleastonemajorurbandevelopmentonthebanksofeachriver,someofwhichinturnbecamecapitalcities.

Europe’ssecondlongestriver,theDanube(1,771miles), isacaseinpoint.Itrises inGermany’sBlackForestand flowssouthon itswaytotheBlackSea. Inall, theDanubebasinaffectseighteencountriesandformsnaturalbordersalongtheway,includingthoseofSlovakiaandHungary,CroatiaandSerbia,SerbiaandRomania,andRomaniaandBulgaria.MorethantwothousandyearsagoitwasoneofthebordersoftheRomanEmpire,whichinturnhelpedittobecomeoneofthegreattradingroutesofmedievaltimesandgaverisetothepresentcapitalcitiesofVienna,Bratislava,Budapest,andBelgrade.Italsoformedthenaturalborderoftwosubsequentempires,theAustro-Hungarianandthe Ottoman. As each shrank, the nations emerged again, eventually becoming nation states.However,thegeographyoftheDanuberegion,especiallyatitssouthernend,helpsexplainwhythereare so many small nations there in comparison to the bigger countries in and around the NorthEuropeanPlain.

ThecountriesofnorthernEuropehavebeenricherthanthoseofthesouthforseveralcenturies.Thenorth industrialized earlier than the south and so has beenmore economically successful.Asmany of the northern countries comprise the heartland ofWestern Europe, their trade linkswereeasier tomaintain, and onewealthy neighbor could tradewith another—whereas the Spanish, forexample, eitherhad to cross thePyrenees to trade, or look to the limitedmarkets ofPortugal andNorthAfrica.

The Danube Basin illustrates the geographical advantages of the terrain in Europe; interconnected rivers on a flat plainprovidednaturalbordersandaneasilynavigabletransportnetworkthatencouragedaboomingtradesystem.

Therearealsounprovable theories that thedominationofCatholicism in the southhasheld itback,whereas the Protestantwork ethic propelled the northern countries to greater heights. EachtimeIvisittheBavariancityofMunich,Ireflectonthistheory,andwhiledrivingpastthegleamingtemplesoftheheadquartersofBMW,Allianz,andSiemensIhavecausetodoubtit.InGermany,34percentofthepopulationisCatholic,andBavariaitselfispredominantlyCatholic,yettheirreligious

predilectionsdonotappear tohave influencedeither theirprogressor their insistencethatGreeksworkharderandpaymoretaxes.

ThecontrastbetweennorthernandsouthernEuropeisalsoatleastpartlyattributabletothefactthat thesouthhas fewercoastalplains suitable foragriculture,andhas sufferedmore fromdroughtandnaturaldisastersthanthenorth,albeitonalesserscalethaninotherpartsoftheworld.Aswesaw inchapterone, theNorthEuropeanPlain is a corridor that stretches fromFrance to theUralMountains in Russia, bordered to the north by the North and Baltic Seas. The land allows forsuccessful farming on amassive scale, and the waterways enable the crops and other goods to bemovedeasily.

Ofall thecountries in theplain,Francewasbest situated to takeadvantageof it.France is theonlyEuropeancountrytobebothanorthernandsouthernpower.ItcontainsthelargestexpanseoffertilelandinWesternEurope,andmanyofitsriversconnectwithoneanother;oneflowswestallthewaytotheAtlantic(theSeine),anothersouthtotheMediterranean(theRhône).Thesefactors,togetherwithFrance’srelativeflatness,weresuitablefortheunificationofregions,and—especiallyfromthetimeofNapoleon—centralizationofpower.

ButtothesouthandwestmanycountriesremaininthesecondtierofEuropeanpower,partiallybecauseoftheir location.ThesouthofItaly, forexample, isstillwellbehindthenorthintermsofdevelopment,andalthoughithasbeenaunifiedstate(includingVeniceandRome)since1871,thestrains of the rift between north and south are greater now than they have been since before theSecondWorldWar.Theheavyindustry,tourism,andfinancialcentersofthenorthhavelongmeantahigher standardof living there, leading to the formationofpolitical parties agitating for cuttingstatesubsidiestothesouth,orevenbreakingawayfromit.

Spainisalsostruggling,andhasalwaysstruggledbecauseofitsgeography.Itsnarrowcoastalplainshavepoorsoil,andaccesstomarketsishinderedinternallybyitsshortriversandtheMesetaCentral,ahighlandplateausurroundedbymountainranges,someofwhichcutthroughit.TradewithWesternEurope is furtherhamperedby thePyrenees, andanymarkets to its southon theother sideof theMediterraneanareindevelopingcountrieswithlimitedincome.ItwasleftbehindaftertheSecondWorldWar,asundertheFrancodictatorshipitwaspoliticallyfrozenoutofmuchofmodernEurope.Francodied in1975and thenewlydemocraticSpain joined theEU in1986.By the1990s, ithadbegun to catch up with the rest of Western Europe, but its inherent geographical and financialweaknesses continue to hold it back and have intensified the problems of overspending and loosecentralfiscalcontrol.Ithasbeenamongthecountrieshitworstbythe2008economiccrisis.

Greece suffers similarly. Much of the Greek coastline comprises steep cliffs and there are fewcoastalplains foragriculture. Inlandaremore steepcliffs, rivers thatwillnotallowtransportation,and fewwide, fertilevalleys.Whatagricultural landthere is isofhighquality; theproblemis thatthereistoolittleofittoallowGreecetobecomeamajoragriculturalexporter,ortodevelopmorethanahandfulofmajorurbanareascontaininghighlyeducated,highlyskilled,andtechnologicallyadvancedpopulations.Itssituationisfurtherexacerbatedbyitslocation,withAthenspositionedatthetipofapeninsula,almostcutofffromlandtradewithEurope.ItisreliantontheAegeanSeaforaccess to maritime trade in the region—but across that sea lies Turkey, a large potential enemy.GreecefoughtseveralwarsagainstTurkeyinthelatenineteenthandearlytwentiethcenturies,andinmoderntimesitstillspendsavastamountofeuros,whichitdoesn’thave,ondefense.

Themainlandisprotectedbymountains,butthereareabout1,400Greekislands(sixthousandifyou include various rocks sticking out of the Aegean) of which approximately two hundred areinhabited.Ittakesadecentnavyjusttopatrolthisterritory,nevermindonestrongenoughtodeter

any attempt to take the islands over. The result is a huge cost in military spending that Greececannotafford.DuringtheColdWar,theAmericans,andtoalesserextenttheBritish,werecontenttounderwritesomeofthemilitaryrequirementsinordertokeeptheSovietUnionoutoftheAegeanandtheMediterranean.WhentheColdWarended,sodidthechecks.ButGreecekeptspending.

ThishistoricalsplitcontinuestohaveanimpacttothisdayinthewakeofthefinancialcrashthathitEurope in2008and the ideological rift in the eurozone. In2012,when theEuropean financialbailouts,tokeepGreeceafloatandintheeurocurrencyzone,begananddemandsforGreekausteritymeasuresweremade,thegeographicaldividesoonbecameobvious.Thedonorsanddemanderswerethenortherncountries,therecipientsandsupplicantsmostlysouthern.Itdidn’ttakelongforpeopleinGermanytopointoutthattheywereworkinguntilsixty-fivebutpayingtaxesthatweregoingtoGreecesothatpeoplecouldretireatfifty-five.Theythenasked“Why?”Andtheanswer,“Insicknessandinhealth,”wasunsatisfactory.

The Germans led the bailout-imposed austerity measures, the Greeks led the backlash. Forexample, theGerman financeminister,WolfgangSchäuble, commented thathewas “not yet surethat all political parties inGreece are aware of their responsibility for thedifficult situation theircountryisin.”TowhichtheGreekpresident,KarolosPapoulias,whohadfoughttheNazis,replied,“IcannotacceptMr.Schäubleinsultingmycountry....WhoisMr.SchäubletoinsultGreece?WhoaretheDutch?WhoaretheFinnish?”HealsomadeapointedreferencetotheSecondWorldWar:“Wewerealwaysproudtodefendnotonlyourfreedom,ourcountry,butEurope’sfreedom,too.”Thestereotypesofprofligate,slacksouthernersandcareful, industriousnorthernerssoonresurfacedwiththe Greek media responding with constant and crude reminders of Germany’s past, includingsuperimposingaHitlermustacheonafront-pagephotographofChancellorMerkel.

TheGreektaxpayer—ofwhomtherearenotenoughtosustainthecountry’seconomy—hasaverydifferentview,asking: “Whyshould theGermansdictate tous,when theeurobenefits themmorethananyoneelse?”InGreeceandelsewhere,austeritymeasuresimposedfromthenorthareseenasanassaultonsovereignty.

Cracksareappearingintheedificeofthe“familyofEurope.”OntheperipheryofWesternEuropethefinancialcrisishasleftGreecelookinglikeasemidetachedmember;totheeastithasagainseenconflict.Iftheaberrationofthepastseventyyearsofpeaceistocontinuethroughthiscentury,thatpeacewillneedlove,care,andattention.

The post–Second World War generations have grown up with peace as the norm, but what isdifferent about the current generation is that Europeans find it difficult to imagine the opposite.Wars now seem to be what happens elsewhere or in the past—at worst, they happen on the“periphery”ofEurope.Thetraumaoftwoworldwars,followedbysevendecadesofpeaceandthenthecollapse of the Soviet Union persuaded many people that Western Europe was a “post-conflict”region.

There are reasons tobelieve that thismay stillhold true in the future, butpotential sourcesofconflictbubbleunderthesurface,andthetensionbetweentheEuropeansandtheRussiansmayresultinaconfrontation.Forexample,historyandgeographicalshape-shiftinghauntsPolishforeignpolicyeven if the country is currently at peace, successful, and one of the bigger EU states, with apopulationof38million.Itisalsophysicallyoneofthelargermembersanditseconomyhasdoubledsince itemerged frombehindtheIronCurtain,but still it looks to thepastas it tries to secure itsfuture.

ThecorridoroftheNorthEuropeanPlainisatitsnarrowestbetweenPoland’sBalticcoastinthenorthand thebeginningof theCarpathianMountains in the south.This iswhere, fromaRussian

military perspective, the best defensive line could be placed or, from an attacker’s viewpoint, theplaceatwhichitsforceswouldbesqueezedtogetherbeforebreakingouttowardRussia.

ThePoleshaveseenitbothways,asarmieshaveswepteastandwestacrossit,frequentlychangingborders. IfyoutakeTheTimesAtlasofEuropeanHistory and flick throughthepagesquicklyas if itwereaflipbook,youseePolandemergecirca1000CE,thencontinuallychangeshape,disappear,andreappearuntilassumingitspresentforminthelatetwentiethcentury.

ThelocationofGermanyandRussia,coupledwiththePoles’experienceof these twocountries,doesnotmakeeitheranaturalallyforWarsaw.LikeFrance,PolandwantstokeepGermanylockedinsidetheEUandNATO,whilenot-so-ancientfearsofRussiahavecometotheforewiththecrisisinUkraine.Over the centuries,Polandhas seen theRussian tide ebb and flow fromand to them.AfterthelowtideattheendoftheSoviet(Russian)empire,therewasonlyonedirectionitcouldsubsequentlyflow.

RelationswithBritain, as a counterweight toGermanywithin the EU, came easily despite thebetrayal of 1939: Britain and France had signed a treaty guaranteeing to come to Poland’s aid ifGermany invaded. When the attack came, the response to the blitzkrieg was a “sitzkrieg”—bothAlliessatbehindtheMaginotLineinFranceasPolandwasswallowedup.Despitethis,relationswiththeUK are strong, even if themain ally the newly liberated Poland sought out in 1989 was theUnitedStates.

The Americans embraced the Poles and vice versa: both had the Russians in mind. In 1999,PolandjoinedNATO,extendingtheAlliance’sreachfourhundredmilesclosertoMoscow.Bythen,severalotherformerWarsawPactcountrieswerealsomembersoftheAlliance,andin1999MoscowwatchedhelplesslyasNATOwenttowarwithitsally,Serbia.Inthe1990s,Russiawasinnopositiontopushback,butafterthechaosoftheYeltsinyears,Putinsteppedinonthefrontfootandcameoutswinging.

Thebest-knownquoteattributedtoHenryKissingeroriginatedinthe1970s,whenheisreportedtohaveasked:“IfIwanttophoneEurope—whodoIcall?”ThePoleshaveanupdatedquestion:“IftheRussiansthreaten,dowecallBrusselsorWashington?”Theyknowtheanswer.

TheBalkan countries are also once again free of empire. Theirmountainous terrain led to theemergenceof somanysmall states intheregion,and isoneof thethings thathaskept themfromintegrating—despite the best efforts of the experiment of theUnion of Southern Slavs, otherwiseknownasYugoslavia.

With the wars of the 1990s behind them, most of the former Yugoslav countries are lookingwestward,butinSerbia,thepulloftheeast,withitsOrthodoxreligionandSlavicpeoples,remainsstrong.Russia,whichhasyettoforgivetheWesternnationsforthebombingofSerbiain1999andtheseparationofKosovo,isstillattemptingtocoaxSerbiaintoitsorbitviathegravitationalpulloflanguage,ethnicity,religion,andenergydeals.

Bismarck famously said that amajorwarwould be sparked by “some damned fool thing in theBalkans”;andsoitcametopass.TheregionisnowaneconomicanddiplomaticbattlegroundwiththeEU,NATO,theTurks,andtheRussiansallvyingforinfluence.Albania,Bulgaria,Croatia,andRomaniahavemade their choice andare insideNATO—and, apart fromAlbania, are also in theEU,asisSlovenia.

ThetensionsextendintothenorthandScandinavia.DenmarkisalreadyaNATOmember,andtherecentresurgenceofRussiahascausedadebateinSwedenoverwhetheritistimetoabandontheneutralityoftwocenturiesandjointheAlliance.In2013,RussianjetsstagedamockbombingrunonSwedeninthemiddleofthenight.TheSwedishdefensesystemappearstohavebeenasleep,failing

toscrambleanyjets,anditwastheDanishairforcethattooktotheskiestoshepherdtheRussiansaway. Despite that, themajority of Swedes remain againstNATOmembership, but the debate isongoing, informedbyMoscow’s statement that itwouldbe forced to“respond” ifeitherSwedenorFinlandweretojointheAlliance.

The EU and NATO countries need to present a united front to these challenges: this will beimpossibleunlessthekeyrelationshipintheEUremainsintact—thatbetweenFranceandGermany.

Aswe’ve seen, Francewas best placed to take advantage of Europe’s climate, trade routes, andnaturalborders. It ispartiallyprotected,except inonearea—thenortheast,at thepointwheretheflatlandof theNorthEuropeanPlainbecomeswhat isnowGermany.BeforeGermanyexistedasasinglecountrythiswasnotaproblem.FrancewasaconsiderabledistancefromRussia, farfromtheMongolhordes,andhadtheChannelbetweenitselfandEngland,meaningthatanattemptatafull-scale invasionandtotaloccupationcouldprobablyberepulsed. In fact,Francewas thepreeminentpowerontheContinent:itcouldevenprojectitspowerasfarasthegatesofMoscow.

ButthenGermanyunited.It had been doing so for some time. There had been the “idea” of Germany for centuries: the

EasternFrankishlands,whichbecametheHolyRomanEmpireinthetenthcentury,weresometimescalled“theGermanies,”comprisingastheydiduptofivehundredGermanicmini-kingdoms.Afteritwasdissolvedin1806,theGermanConfederationofthirty-ninestateletscametogether in1815atthe Congress of Vienna. This in turn led to the North German Confederation, and then theunificationofGermanyin1871after theFranco-PrussianWar, inwhichvictoriousGermantroopsoccupiedParis.NowFrancehadaneighboron itsborder thatwasgeographically larger than itself,withasimilarsizeofpopulationbutabettergrowthrate,andonethatwasmoreindustrialized.

Theunificationwas announced at thePalaceofVersaillesnearParis after theGermanvictory.Theweak spot in the French defense, theNorth European Plain, had been breached. It would beagain, twice, in the following seventy years, after which France would use diplomacy instead ofwarfaretotrytoneutralizethethreatfromtheeast.

GermanyhadalwayshadabiggergeographicalproblemthanFrance.TheflatlandsoftheNorthEuropeanPlaingaveittworeasonstobefearful:tothewesttheGermanssawtheirlong-unifiedandpowerful neighbor France, and to the east the giant Russian Bear. Their ultimate fear was of asimultaneousattackbybothpowersacrosstheflatlandofthecorridor.Wecanneverknowifitwouldhavehappened,butthefearofithadcatastrophicconsequences.

FrancefearedGermany,GermanyfearedFrance,andwhenFrancejoinedbothRussiaandBritainin theTripleEntenteof1907,Germany fearedall three.Therewasnowalso theaddeddimensionthattheBritishnavycould,atatimeofitschoosing,blockadeGermanaccesstotheNorthSeaandtheAtlantic.Germany’ssolution,twice,wastoattackFrancefirst.

ThedilemmaofGermany’sgeographicalpositionandbelligerencebecameknownas“theGermanQuestion.”Theanswer,afterthehorrorsoftheSecondWorldWar,indeedaftercenturiesofwar,wastheacceptanceof thepresence in theEuropean landsof a singleoverwhelmingpower, theUnitedStates,whichsetupNATOandallowedfortheeventualcreationoftheEuropeanUnion.Exhaustedby war, and with safety “guaranteed” by the American military, the Europeans embarked on anastonishingexperiment.Theywereaskedtotrustoneanother.

WhatisnowtheEUwassetupsothatFranceandGermanycouldhugeachothersotightlyinalovingembracethatneitherwouldbeabletogetanarmfreewithwhichtopunchtheother.Ithasworkedbrilliantlyandcreatedahugegeographicalspacenowencompassingthebiggesteconomyintheworld.

Ithasworkedparticularlywell forGermany,which rose from the ashes of 1945 andused to itsadvantage the geography it once feared. It becameEurope’s greatmanufacturer. Insteadof sendingarmiesacrosstheflatlands,itsentgoodswiththeprestigioustagMADEINGERMANY,andthesegoodsfloweddowntheRhineandtheElbe,alongthehighways,andoutintoEuropeandtheworld—north,south,west,and,increasinglysince1990,east.

However,whatbeganin1951asthesix-nationEuropeanCoalandSteelCommunityhasbecomethe twenty-eight-nation EUwith an ideological core of “ever closer union.”After the firstmajorfinancialcrisistohittheUnion,thatideologyisonanuncertainfootingandthetiesthatbindarefraying.TherearesignswithintheEUof,asRobertKaplanputsit,“therevengeofgeography.”

Ever-closerunionled,fornineteenofthetwenty-eightcountries,toasinglecurrency—theeuro.Alltwenty-eightmembers,exceptforDenmarkandtheUK,arecommittedtojoiningitifandwhentheymeetthecriteria.Whatisclearnow,andwascleartosomeatthetime,isthatatitslaunchin1999manycountriesthatdidjoinweresimplynotready.

In1999,manyofthecountrieswentintothenewlydefinedrelationshipwitheyeswideshut.Theywere all supposed to have levels of debt, unemployment, and inflation within certain limits. Theproblem was that some, notably Greece, were cooking the books. Most of the experts knew, butbecausetheeuroisnotjustacurrency—itisalsoanideology—themembersturnedablindeye.

Theeurozonecountriesagreedtobeeconomicallywedded,as theGreekspointout,“insicknessandinhealth,”butwhentheeconomiccrisisof2008hit,thewealthiercountrieshadtobailoutthepoorer ones, and a bitter domestic row broke out. The partners are still throwing dishes at oneanothertothisday.

The euro crisis andwider economic problemshave revealed the cracks in theHouse of Europe(notablyalongtheoldfaultlineofthenorth-southdivide).Thedreamofever-closerunionappearstobefrozen,orpossiblyeveninreverse.Ifitis,thentheGermanquestionmayreturn.Seenthroughthe prism of seven decades of peace, this may seem alarmist, and Germany is among the mostpeaceful and democratic members of the European family; but seen through the prism of sevencenturiesofEuropeanwarfare,itcannotberuledout.

GermanyisdeterminedtoremainagoodEuropean.GermansknowinstinctivelythatiftheUnionfragments,theoldfearsofGermanywillreappear,especiallyasitisnowbyfarthemostpopulousandwealthy European nation, with 80million inhabitants and the world’s fourth-biggest economy. AfailedUnionwouldalsoharmGermanyeconomically:theworld’sthird-largestexporterofgoodsdoesnotwanttoseeitsclosestmarketfragmentintoprotectionism.Thisiswhyinthesummerof2015,after the fractious debate over Greece, Germany led the discussion about whether the eurozonecountries should form a genuine fiscal union. This will require a level of pooling of sovereigntyhithertounseeninEurope,withasharedbudgetbetweenmemberstates.Ifitgoesaheaditwillbringintosharperrelieftheoutlinesofa“two-speedEurope,”composedof“federalized”euronations(stilldominatedbyGermany)andtherestoftheEU.

TheGerman nation state, despite being less than 150 years old, is now Europe’s indispensablepower.Ineconomicaffairsitisunrivaled;itspeaksquietlybutcarriesalargeeuro-shapedstick,andtheContinentlistens.However,onglobal foreignpolicyitsimplyspeaksquietly,sometimesnotatall,andhasanaversiontosticks.

TheshadowoftheSecondWorldWarstillhangsoverGermany.TheAmericans,andeventuallythe West Europeans, were willing to accept German rearmament due to the Soviet threat, butGermanyrearmedalmostreluctantlyandhasbeenloathtouseitsmilitarystrength.Itplayedawalk-onpartinKosovoandAfghanistan,butchosetositouttheLibyaconflict.

ItsmostseriousdiplomaticforayintoanoneconomiccrisishasbeeninUkraine,whichtellsusalot about where Germany is now looking. The Germans were involved in the machinations thatoverthrew Ukraine’s President Yanukovych in 2014 and they were sharply critical of Russia’ssubsequentannexationofCrimea.However,mindfulofthegaspipelines,Berlinwasnoticeablymorerestrained in its criticism and support for sanctions than, for example, the UK, which is far lessreliantonRussianenergy.ThroughtheEUandNATO,GermanyisanchoredinWesternEurope,butin stormy weather anchors can slip, and Berlin is geographically situated to shift the focus of itsattentioneastifrequiredandforgemuchclosertieswithMoscow.

Watching all these continental machinations from the sidelines of the Atlantic is the UK,sometimespresentontheterritoryofthecontinent,sometimesin“splendidisolation,”alwaysfullyengaged in ensuring that no power greater than it will rise in Europe. This is as true now in thediplomaticchambersoftheEUasitwasonthebattlefieldsofAgincourt,Waterloo,orBalaclava.

Whenitcan,theUKinsertsitselfbetweenthegreatFranco-GermanalliancesintheEU;failingthat, it seeks alliances among other, smaller member states to build enough votes to challengepolicieswithwhichitdisagrees.

Geographically,theBritsareinagoodplace.Goodfarmland,decentrivers,excellentaccesstotheseasandtheirfishstocks,closeenoughtotheEuropeancontinenttotrade,andyetprotectedbydintofbeinganislandrace—therehavebeentimeswhentheUKgavethanksfor itsgeographyaswarsandrevolutionssweptoveritsneighbors.

TheBritishlossesin,andexperienceof,theworldwarsarenottobeunderestimated,buttheyaredwarfedbywhathappened incontinentalEurope in the twentiethcentury and indeedbefore that.TheBritishareatoneremovefromlivingwiththehistoricalcollectivememoryoffrequentinvasionsandborderchanges.

ThereisatheorythattherelativesecurityoftheUKoverthepastfewhundredyearsiswhyithasexperiencedmorefreedomandlessdespotismthanthecountriesacrossthechannel.Thetheorygoesthat therewere fewer requirements for “strongmen” or dictators, which, startingwith theMagnaCarta (1215) and then theProvisions ofOxford (1258), led to forms of democracy years aheadofothercountries.

Itisagoodtalkingpoint,albeitonenotprovable.Whatisundeniableisthatthewateraroundtheisland;thetreesuponit,whichallowedagreatnavytobebuilt;andtheeconomicconditionsthatsparkedtheIndustrialRevolutionallledtoGreatBritaincontrollingaglobalempire.BritainmaybethebiggestislandinEurope,butitisnotalargecountry.Theexpansionofitspoweracrosstheglobein theeighteenth,nineteenth,and twentiethcenturies is remarkable,even if itspositionhas sincedeclined.

Its location still grants it certain strategic advantages,oneofwhich is theGIUKgap.This is achokepointintheworld’ssea-lanes—itishardlyasimportantastheStraitofHormuzortheStraitofMalacca,butithastraditionallygiventheUKanadvantageintheNorthAtlantic.Thealternativeroute for north European navies (including Belgium, the Netherlands, and France) to access theAtlanticisthroughtheEnglishChannel,butthisisnarrow—onlytwentymilesacrossattheStraitofDover—and verywell defended.AnyRussian naval ship coming from theArctic also has to passthroughtheGIUKonitswaytotheAtlantic.

ThisstrategicadvantagehasdiminishedintandemwiththereducedroleandpoweroftheRoyalNavy, but in time of war it would again benefit theUK. TheGIUK is one ofmany reasons whyLondon flew intoapanic in2014when,briefly, thevoteonScottish independence looked as if it

might result in a yes.The loss of power in theNorthSea andNorthAtlanticwouldhave been astrategicblowtoandamassivedentintheprestigeofwhateverwasleftoftheUK.

WhattheBritishhavenowisacollectivememoryofgreatness.Thatmemory iswhatpersuadesmanypeopleontheislandthatifsomethingintheworldneedstobedone,thenBritainshouldbeamongthecountriestodoit.TheBritishremainwithinEurope,andyetoutsideit;itisanissuestilltobesettled.

The twomain issues causing theBritish to edge toward theEUexit door are related—they aresovereignty and immigration. Anti-EU opinion, backed by some EU waverers, is angered by theamountandtypeoflawsenactedbytheEU,whichtheUK,aspartofthemembershipdeal,hastoabide by.Headlines aremade about foreign criminals convicted of serious crimes in theUKwhocannotbedeportedbecauseoftheEuropeanConventiononHumanRights.

At the same time thewaveof economic immigrants and refugees arriving in theUK, from theMiddle East and Africa, fuels anti-EU feeling as many migrants want to reach Britain, and it isbelievedareencouragedtosodobytheEUcountriesthroughwhichtheypass.

Prejudice against immigrants always rises during times of economic recession such as recentlysufferedinEurope,andtheeffectshavebeenseenacrossthecontinentandhaveresultedintheriseof right-wing political parties, all of whichmilitate against pan-nationalism and thus weaken thefabricoftheEU.

Europe’straditionalwhitepopulationisgraying.However,populationprojections,ofaninvertedpyramid,witholderpeopleatthetopandfewpeopletolookafterthemorpaytaxes,havenotmadeadentinthestrengthofanti-immigrantfeelinginwhatwaspreviouslytheindigenouspopulationasitseestheworldinwhichitgrewupchangerapidly.

This demographic change is in turn having an effect on the foreign policy of nation states,particularly toward the Middle East. On issues such as the Iraq War, or the Israeli-Palestinianconflict, for example,many European governmentsmust, at the very least, take into account thefeelingsoftheirMuslimcitizenswhenformulatingpolicy.

Thecharactersanddomestic socialnormsof theEuropeancountriesarealso impacted.Debatesaboutwomen’srightsandtheveilingofwomen,blasphemylaws,freedomofspeech,andmanyotherissueshaveallbeeninfluencedbythepresenceoflargenumbersofMuslimsinEurope’surbanareas.Voltaire’smaximthathewoulddefendtothedeaththerightofapersontosaysomething,evenifhefounditoffensive,wasoncetakenasagiven.Now,despitemanypeoplehavingbeenkilledbecausewhattheysaidwasinsulting,thedebatehasshifted.Itisnotuncommontoheartheideathatperhapsinsultingreligionshouldbebeyondthepale,possiblyevenmadeillegal.

WhereaspreviouslyliberalswouldbeentirelybehindVoltaire,therearenowshadesofrelativism.Themassacreof journalistsat theFrenchsatiricalmagazineCharlieHebdo in2015was followedbywidespreadcondemnationandrevulsion;however,sectionsofliberalcondemnationweretingedwitha“butperhapsthesatiristswenttoofar.”ThisissomethingnewforEuropeinthemodernageandispartofitsculturewars,allofwhichloopbackintoattitudestowardtheEuropeanpoliticalstructures.

NATOisfrayingattheedgesatthesametimeastheEuropeanUnion.Bothcanbepatchedup,but if not, then over time theymay become either defunct or irrelevant.At this point wewouldreturn toaEuropeof sovereignnation states,witheach state seekingalliances inabalanceof thepower system.TheGermanswould again be fearing encirclement by theRussians andFrench, theFrenchwouldagainbefearingtheirbiggerneighbor,andwewouldallbebackatthebeginningofthetwentiethcentury.

For theFrench, this is anightmare.They successfullyhelped tieGermanydown inside theEU,onlytofindthat,afterGermanreunification,theybecamethejuniorpartnerinatwin-enginemotortheyhadhoped tobedriving.ThisposesaproblemthatParisdoesnotappear tobeable to solve.UnlessitquietlyacceptsthatBerlincallstheEuropeanshots,itrisksfurtherweakeningtheUnion.ButifitacceptsGermanleadership,thenitsownpowerisdiminished.

France is capable of an independent foreign policy—indeed, with its force de frappe nucleardeterrent,itsoverseasterritories,anditsaircraftcarrier–backedarmedforces,itdoesjustthat—butitoperatessafeintheknowledgethatitseasternflankissecureanditcanaffordtoraiseitseyestothehorizon.

BothFranceandGermanyarecurrentlyworking tokeep theUnion togetherandare discussingvariouswaysofbindingthemselvestogetherwithintheeurozone:theyseeeachothernowasnaturalpartners.ButonlyGermanyhasaplanB—Russia.

TheendoftheColdWarsawmostofthecontinentalpowersreducingtheirmilitarybudgetsandcuttingbacktheirarmedforces.IthastakentheshockoftheRussian–Georgianwarof2008andtheannexationofCrimeabyRussiain2014tofocusattentiononthepossibilityoftheage-oldproblemofwarinEurope.

NowtheRussiansregularlyflymissionsaimedattestingEuropeanairdefensesystemsandarebusyconsolidating themselves in South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Crimea, Transnistria, and eastern Ukraine.TheymaintaintheirlinkswiththeethnicRussiansintheBaltics,andtheystillhavetheirexclaveofKaliningradontheBalticSea.

TheEuropeanshavebegundoingsomeseriousrecalculationontheirmilitaryspending,butthereisn’tmuchmoneyaround,and they facedifficultdecisions.While theydebate thosedecisions, themaps arebeingdustedoff, and thediplomats andmilitary strategists see that,while the threats ofCharlemagne,Napoleon,Hitler,andtheSovietsmayhavevanished,theNorthEuropeanPlain,theCarpathians,theBaltic,andtheNorthSeaarestillthere.

InhisbookOfParadiseandPower,thehistorianRobertKaganarguesthatWesternEuropeansliveinparadisebutshouldn’tseektooperatebytherulesofparadiseoncetheymoveoutintotheworldofpower.Perhaps,astheeurocrisisdiminishesandwelookaroundatparadise,itseemsinconceivablethatwecouldgobackward;buthistorytellsushowmuchthingscanchangeinjustafewdecades,andgeography tells us that if humans do not constantly strive to overcome its “rules,” its “rules” willovercomeus.

ThisiswhatHelmutKohlmeantwhenhewarned,uponleavingthechancellorshipofGermanyin1998,thathewasthelastGermanleadertohavelivedthroughtheSecondWorldWarandthustohaveexperiencedthehorrorsitwrought.In2012,hewroteanarticleforGermany’sbest-sellingdailynewspaper,Bild,andwasclearly stillhauntedbythepossibility that,becauseof the financialcrisis,thecurrentgenerationofleaderswouldnotnurturethepostwarexperimentinEuropeantrust:“Forthosewhodidn’t livethroughthis themselvesandwhoespeciallynowinthecrisisareaskingwhatbenefitsEurope’sunitybrings,theanswerdespitetheunprecedentedEuropeanperiodofpeacelastingmorethan65yearsanddespitetheproblemsanddifficultieswemuststillovercomeis:peace.”

5

AFRICA

Italwaysseemsimpossibleuntilitisdone.—NelsonMandela

Africa’scoastline?Greatbeaches—really,reallylovelybeaches—butterriblenaturalharbors.Rivers?Amazingrivers,butmostofthemareworthlessforactuallytransportinganything,giventhateveryfewmilesyougooverawaterfall.ThesearejusttwoinalonglistofproblemsthathelpsexplainwhyAfricaisn’ttechnologicallyorpoliticallyassuccessfulasWesternEuropeorNorthAmerica.

Therearelotsofplacesthatareunsuccessful,butfewhavebeenasunsuccessfulasAfrica,andthatdespitehavingaheadstartastheplacewhereHomosapiensoriginatedapproximatelytwohundredthousand years ago. As that most lucid of writers Jared Diamond put it in a brilliant NationalGeographicarticlein2005,“It’stheoppositeofwhatonewouldexpectfromtherunnerfirstofftheblock.”However,thefirstrunnersbecameseparatedfromeveryoneelsebytheSaharaDesertandtheIndianandAtlanticOceans.AlmosttheentirecontinentdevelopedinisolationfromtheEurasianlandmass,where ideasand technologywereexchanged fromeast towest, andwest toeast,butnotnorthtosouth.

Africa,beingahugecontinent,has alwaysconsistedofdifferent regions, climates, andcultures,butwhattheyallhadincommonwastheirisolationfromoneanotherandtheoutsideworld.Thatislessthecasenow,butthelegacyremains.

The world’s idea of African geography is flawed. Few people realize just how big it is. This isbecausemostofususethestandardMercatorworldmap.This,asdoothermaps,depictsasphereonaflat surfaceandthusdistorts shapes.Africa is far, far longerthanusuallyportrayed,whichexplainswhatanachievementitwastoroundtheCapeofGoodHope,andisareminderoftheimportanceoftheSuezCanaltoworldtrade.Makingitaroundthecapewasamomentousachievement,butonceitbecame unnecessary to do so, the sea journey from Western Europe to India was reduced by sixthousandmiles.

IfyoulookataworldmapandmentallyglueAlaskaontoCalifornia,thenturntheUnitedStatesonitshead, itappearsas if itwouldroughlyfit intoAfricawithafewgapshereandthere.Infact,AfricaisthreetimeslargerthantheUnitedStates.LookagainatthestandardMercatormapandyouseethatGreenlandappearstobethesamesizeasAfrica,andyetAfricaisactuallyfourteentimesthesize of Greenland! You could fit the United States, Greenland, India, China, Spain, France,Germany,andtheUKintoAfricaandstillhaveroomformostofEasternEurope.WeknowAfricaisamassivelandmass,butthemapsrarelytellushowmassive.

Thegeographyofthisimmensecontinentcanbeexplainedinseveralways,butthemostbasicistothinkofAfricaintermsofthetopthirdandbottomtwo-thirds.

The top third begins on the Mediterranean coastlines of the North African Arabic-speakingcountries. The coastal plains quickly become the Sahara, the world’s largest dry desert, which isalmostasbigastheUnitedStates.DirectlybelowtheSaharaistheSahelregion,asemiarid,rock-strewn, sandy strip of land measuring more than three thousand miles at its widest points andstretchingfromGambiaontheAtlanticcoastthroughNiger,Chad,andrightacrosstoEritreaontheRedSea.ThenameSahelcomesfromtheArabicsahil,whichmeans“coast,”andishowthepeoplelivingintheregionthinkofit—astheshorelineofthevastsandseaoftheSahara.Itisanothersortofshore,onewheretheinfluenceofIslamdiminishes.FromtheSaheltotheMediterraneanthevastmajorityofpeopleareMuslims.Southofitthereisfarmorediversityinreligion.

Indeed, south of theSahel, in the bottom two-thirds ofAfrica, there ismore diversity inmostthings.Thelandbecomesmoretemperate,andgreenvegetationappears,whichbecomesjungleasweapproachtheCongoandtheCentralAfricanRepublic.TowardtheeastcoastarethegreatlakesinUgandaandTanzania,whileacrosstothewestmoredesertsappearinAngolaandNamibia.Bythetimewe reach the tipofSouthAfrica theclimate is again “Mediterranean,”even thoughwehavetraveledalmost five thousandmiles fromthenorthernmostpoint inTunisiaontheMediterraneancoast.

GiventhatAfricaiswherehumansoriginated,weareallAfrican.However,therulesoftheracechangedcirca8000BCEwhensomeofus,who’dwanderedofftoplacessuchastheMiddleEastandaroundtheMediterraneanregion, lost thewanderlust, settleddown,began farming,andeventuallycongregatedinvillagesandtowns.

Butbacksouththerewerefewplantswillingtobedomesticated,andevenfeweranimals.Muchofthelandconsistsofjungle,swamp,desert,orsteep-sidedplateau,noneofwhichlendthemselvestothe growing of wheat or rice, or sustaining herds of sheep. Africa’s rhinos, gazelles, and giraffesstubbornly refused to be beasts of burden—or as Jared Diamond puts it in a memorable passage,“HistorymighthaveturnedoutdifferentlyifAfricanarmies,fedbybarnyard-giraffemeatandbackedbywavesofcavalrymountedonhugerhinos,hadsweptintoEuropetooverrunitsmutton-fedsoldiersmounted on puny horses.” But Africa’s head start in our mutual story did allow it more time todevelopsomethingelsethattothisdayholdsitback:avirulentsetofdiseases,suchasmalariaandyellow fever, brought on by the heat andnow complicated by crowded living conditions and poorhealth-care infrastructure.This is trueofother regions—the subcontinent andSouthAmerica, forexample—but sub-Saharan Africa has been especially hard-hit, for example by HIV, and has aparticularproblembecauseoftheprevalenceofthemosquitoandthetsetsefly.

Mostofthecontinent’sriversalsoposeaproblem,astheybegininhighlandanddescendinabruptdropsthatthwartnavigation.Forexample,themightyZambezimaybeAfrica’sfourth-longestriver,runningfor1,700miles,andmaybeastunningtouristattractionwithitswhite-waterrapidsandtheVictoria Falls, but as a trade route it is of little use. It flows through six countries, dropping from4,900feettosealevelwhenitreachestheIndianOceanatMozambique.Partsofitarenavigablebyshallowboats,butthesepartsdonotinterconnect,thuslimitingthetransportationofcargo.

UnlikeinEurope,whichhastheDanubeandtheRhine,thisdrawbackhashinderedcontactandtradebetween regions—which in turn affects economicdevelopment andhinders the formationoflargetradingregions.Thecontinent’sgreatrivers—theNiger,theCongo,theZambezi,theNile,andothers—don’t connect, and this disconnection has a human factor.Whereas huge areas of Russia,China,andtheUnitedStates speakaunifying language,whichhelps trade, inAfrica thousandsoflanguagesexistandnoonecultureemergedtodominateareasof similar size.Europe,ontheother

hand,wassmallenoughtohavealinguafrancathroughwhichtocommunicate,andalandscapethatencouragedinteraction.

Eveniftechnologicallyproductivenationstateshadarisen,muchofthecontinentwouldstillhavestruggledtoconnecttotherestoftheworldbecausethebulkofthelandmassisframedbytheIndianandAtlanticOceansandtheSaharaDesert.Theexchangeof ideasandtechnologybarely touchedsub-SaharanAfrica for thousandsofyears.Despite this, severalAfricanempiresandcity statesdidariseafteraboutthesixthcenturyCE:forexampletheMaliEmpire(thirteenthtosixteenthcentury),andthecitystateofGreatZimbabwe(eleventhtofifteenthcentury),thelatterinlandaroundtheZambezi andLimpopoRivers.However, these andotherswere isolated to relatively small regionalblocs, and although the myriad cultures that did emerge across the continent may have beenpoliticallysophisticated,thephysicallandscaperemainedabarriertotechnologicaldevelopment:bythetimetheoutsideworldarrivedinforce,mosthadyettodevelopwriting,paper,gunpowder,orthewheel.

TradersfromtheMiddleEastandtheMediterraneanhadbeendoingbusinessintheSahara,afterthe introduction of camels, from approximately two thousand years ago, notably trading the vastresources of salt there; but itwasn’t until theArab conquests of the seventh centuryCE that thescenewas set forapush southward.By theninthcentury, theyhadcrossed theSahara, andby theeleventhwere firmly established as far south asmodern-dayNigeria.TheArabswere also comingdowntheeastcoastandestablishingthemselvesinplacessuchasZanzibarandDaresSalaaminwhatisnowTanzania.

WhentheEuropeansfinallymadeitdownthewestcoastinthefifteenthcenturytheyfoundfewnaturalharborsfortheirships.UnlikeEuropeorNorthAmerica,wherethejaggedcoastlinesgiverisetodeepnaturalharbors,muchoftheAfricancoastlineissmooth.Andoncetheydidmakelandtheystruggled to penetrate any farther inland than roughly one hundredmiles, due to the difficulty ofnavigatingtheriversaswellasthechallengesoftheclimateanddisease.

Both theArabs and then theEuropeansbroughtwith themnew technology,which theymostlykepttothemselves,andtookawaywhatevertheyfoundofvalue,whichwasmainlynaturalresourcesandpeople.

Slaveryexistedlongbeforetheoutsideworldreturnedtowhereithadoriginated.TradersintheSahelregionusedthousandsofslavestotransportvastquantitiesoftheregion’sthenmostvaluablecommodity—salt—but the Arabs began the practice of subcontracting African slave–taking towillingtriballeaderswhowoulddeliverthemtothecoast.BythetimeofthepeakoftheOttomanEmpireinthefifteenthandsixteenthcenturies,hundredsofthousandsofAfricans(mostlyfromtheSudan region) had been taken to Istanbul, Cairo, Damascus, and across the Arabian world. TheEuropeansfollowedsuit,outdoingtheArabsandTurksintheirappetitefor,andmistreatmentof,thepeoplebroughttotheslaveshipsanchoredoffthewestcoast.

Back in the great capital cities ofLondon,Paris,Brussels, andLisbon, theEuropeans then tookmapsof the contoursofAfrica’s geographyanddrew lineson them—or, to take amore aggressiveapproach,lies.InbetweentheselinestheywrotewordssuchasMiddleCongoorUpperVoltaandcalledthem countries. These lines weremore about how far each power’s explorers, military forces, andbusinessmenhadadvancedonthemapthanwhatthepeoplelivingbetweenthelinesfeltthemselvestobe,orhowtheywantedtoorganizethemselves.ManyAfricansarenowpartiallytheprisonersofthepolitical geography theEuropeansmade, andof thenatural barriers to progressionwithwhichnature endowed them. From this they are making a modern home and, in some cases, vibrant,connectedeconomies.

There are now fifty-six countries in Africa. Since the “winds of change” of the independencemovementblewthroughthemid-twentiethcentury,someofthewordsbetweenthelineshavebeenaltered—for example,Rhodesia isnowZimbabwe—but the borders are, surprisingly,mostly intact.However,manyencompassthesamedivisionstheydidwhenfirstdrawn,andthoseformaldivisionsaresomeofthemanylegaciescolonialismbequeathedthecontinent.

The ethnic conflicts within Sudan, Somalia, Kenya, Angola, the Democratic Republic of theCongo,Nigeria,Mali,andelsewhereareevidencethattheEuropeanideaofgeographydidnotfitthereality ofAfrica’s demographics. Theremay have always been conflict: the Zulus and Xhosas hadtheir differences long before they had ever set eyes on a European. But colonialism forced thosedifferencestoberesolvedwithinanartificialstructure—theEuropeanconceptofanationstate.Themoderncivilwarsarenowpartiallyaresultofthecolonialists’havingtolddifferentnationsthattheywere one nation in one state, and then after the colonialists were chased out, a dominant peopleemergedwithinthestatewhowantedtoruleitall,thusensuringviolence.

Take,forexample,Libya,anartificialconstructonlyafewdecadesold,whichatthefirsttestfellapartintoitspreviousincarnationasthreedistinctgeographicalregions.Inthewestitwas,inGreektimes, Tripolitania (from the Greek tripolis, “three cities,” which eventually merged and becameTripoli). The area to the east, centered on the city of Benghazi but stretching down to theChadborder,wasknowninbothGreekandRomantimesasCyrenaica.Belowthesetwo,inwhatisnowthefarsouthwestofthecountry,istheregionofFezzan.

Tripolitania was always orientated north and northwest, trading with its southern Europeanneighbors.Cyrenaicaalways lookedeast toEgyptand theArab lands.Even the seacurrentoff thecoastoftheBenghaziregiontakesboatsnaturallyeastward.Fezzanwastraditionallyalandofnomadswhohadlittleincommonwiththetwocoastalcommunities.

ThisishowtheGreeks,Romans,andTurksallruledthearea—itishowthepeoplehadthoughtofthemselvesforcenturies.Themeredecades-oldEuropeanideaofLibyawillstruggletosurvive,andalreadyoneof themany Islamistgroups in theeasthasdeclaredan“emirateofCyrenaica.”Whilethismaynotcometopass, it isanexampleofhowtheconceptof the regionoriginatedmerely inlinesdrawnonmapsbyforeigners.

However,oneofthebiggestfailuresofEuropeanlinedrawingliesinthecenterofthecontinent,thegiantblackholeknownastheDemocraticRepublicoftheCongo—theDRC.Hereisthelandinwhich Joseph Conrad set his novella Heart of Darkness and it remains a place shrouded in thedarknessofwar.Itisaprimeexampleofhowtheimpositionofartificialborderscanleadtoaweakand divided state, ravaged by internal conflict, and whose mineral wealth condemns it to beingexploitedbyoutsiders.

TheDRCisanillustrationofwhythecatchalltermdevelopingworldisfartoobroad-brushawaytodescribecountriesthatarenotpartofthemodernindustrializedworld.TheDRCisnotdeveloping,nordoesitshowanysignsofdoingso.TheDRCshouldneverhavebeenputtogether;ithasfallenapartand is themostunderreportedwar zone intheworld,despite the fact that sixmillionpeoplehavediedthereduringwarsthathavebeenfoughtsincethelate1990s.

TheDRCisneitherdemocraticnora republic. It is the second-largestcountry inAfricawithapopulation of approximately 75million, although due to the situation there it is difficult to findaccurate figures. It is bigger thanGermany, France, and Spain combined and contains theCongoRainforest,secondonlytotheAmazonasthelargestintheworld.

The people are divided intomore than two hundred ethnic groups, of which the largest is theBantu.Thereareseveralhundredlanguages,butthewidespreaduseofFrenchbridgesthatgaptoa

degree.TheFrenchcomesfromtheDRC’syearsasaBelgiancolony(1908–60)andbeforethatwhenKingLeopoldoftheBelgiansuseditashispersonalpropertyfromwhichtostealitsnaturalresourcestolinehispockets.BelgiancolonialrulemadetheBritishandFrenchversionslookpositivelybenignandwasruthlesslybrutalfromstarttofinish,withfewattemptstobuildanysortofinfrastructuretohelp the inhabitants.When theBelgians left in1960 they leftbehind littlechanceof thecountryholdingtogether.

Thecivilwarsbeganimmediatelyandwerelaterintensifiedbyablood-soakedwalk-onroleintheglobalColdWar.Thegovernment in thecapital,Kinshasa,backed the rebel side inAngola’swar,thus bringing itself to the attention of the United States, which was also supporting the rebelmovementagainsttheSoviet-backedAngolangovernment.Eachsidepouredinhundredsofmillionsofdollars’worthofarms.

WhentheColdWarended,bothgreatpowershadlessinterestinwhatbythenwascalledZaire,andthecountrystaggeredon,keptafloatbyitsnaturalresources.TheGreatRiftValleycurvesintotheDRCinitssouthandeastandithasexposedhugequantitiesofcobalt,copper,diamonds,gold,silver,zinc,coal,manganese,andotherminerals,especiallyinKatangaProvince.

InKingLeopold’sdaytheworldwantedtheregion’srubberfortheexpandingautomobileindustry;nowChinabuysmorethan50percentoftheDRC’sexports,butstillthepopulationlivesinpoverty.In2014,theUnitedNations’HumanDevelopmentIndexplacedtheDRCatnumber186outof187countriesitmeasured.ThebottomeighteencountriesinthatlistareallinAfrica.

Becauseitissoresource-richandsolarge,everyonewantsabiteoutoftheDRC,which,asitlacksasubstantivecentralauthority,cannotreallybiteback.

The region is also borderedbynine countries.Theyhave all played a role in theDRC’s agony,which is one reasonwhy theCongowars are also known as “Africa’s worldwar.” To the south isAngola, to the north the Republic of the Congo and the Central African Republic, to the eastUganda,Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania, and Zambia.The roots of thewars go back decades, but theworst of times was triggered by the disaster that hit Rwanda in 1994 and swept westward in itsaftermath.

After the genocide in Rwanda, the Tutsi survivors and moderate Hutus formed a Tutsi-ledgovernment.ThekillingmachinesoftheHutumilitia,theInterahamwe,fledintoeasternDRCbutconductedborderraids.TheyalsojoinedwithsectionsoftheDRCarmytokilltheDRC’sTutsis,wholive near the border region. In came the Rwandan and Ugandan armies, backed by Burundi andEritrea. Allied with opposition militias, they attacked the Interahamwe and overthrew the DRCgovernment. They alsowent on to controlmuch of the country’s natural wealth, withRwanda inparticular shipping back tons of coltan,which is used in themaking of cell phones and computerchips.However,whathadbeenthegovernmentforcesdidnotgiveupand—withtheinvolvementofAngola,Namibia,andZimbabwe—continuedthefight.Thecountrybecameavastbattlegroundwithmorethantwentyfactionsinvolvedinthefighting.

Thewarshavekilled,atalowestimate,tensofthousandsofpeopleandhaveresultedinthedeathsofanothersixmillionduetodiseaseandmalnutrition.TheUNestimatesthatalmost50percentofthevictimshavebeenchildrenundertheageoffive.

Inrecentyears,thefightinghasdieddown,buttheDRCishometotheworld’sdeadliestconflictsincetheSecondWorldWarandstillrequirestheUN’slargestpeacekeepingmissiontopreventfull-scalewarfrombreakingoutagain.NowthejobisnottoputHumptyDumptybacktogetheragain,becausetheDRCwasneverwhole.Itissimplytokeepthepiecesapartuntilawaycanbefoundto

join them sensibly and peacefully. The European colonialists created an egg without a chicken, alogicalabsurdityrepeatedacrossthecontinentandonethatcontinuestohauntit.

Africahasbeenequallycursedandblessedbyitsresources—blessedinsofarasithasnaturalrichesin abundance, but cursed because outsiders have long plundered them. In more recent times, thenationstateshavebeenabletoclaimashareoftheseriches,andforeigncountriesnowinvestratherthansteal,butstillthepeoplearerarelythebeneficiaries.

Inadditiontoitsnaturalmineralwealth,Africaisalsoblessedwithabundantwater—eventhoughmanyofitsriversdonotencouragetrade,theyaregoodforhydroelectricity.However,this,too,isasourceofpotentialconflict.

TheNile,thelongestriverintheworld(4,160miles),affectstencountriesconsideredtobeintheproximity of its basin—Burundi, the DRC, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan, Tanzania,Uganda,andEgypt.AslongagoasthefifthcenturyBCE,thehistorianHerodotussaid:“EgyptistheNile,andtheNileisEgypt.”Itisstilltrue,andsoathreattothesupplytoEgypt’sseven-hundred-mile-long, fully navigable section of theNile is forCairo a concern—oneoverwhich itwould bepreparedtogotowar.

WithouttheNile,therewouldbenoonethere.Itmaybeahugecountry,butthevastmajorityofits84millionpopulationliveswithinafewmilesoftheNile.Measuredbytheareainwhichpeopledwell,Egyptisoneofthemostdenselypopulatedcountriesintheworld.

Egyptwas,arguably,anationstatewhenmostEuropeanswerelivinginmudhuts,butitwasnevermorethanaregionalpower.ItisprotectedbydesertsonthreesidesandmighthavebecomeagreatpowerintheMediterraneanregionbutforoneproblem.TherearehardlyanytreesinEgypt,andformostofhistory, ifyoudidn’thavetreesyoucouldn’tbuildagreatnavywithwhichtoprojectyourpower.TherehasalwaysbeenanEgyptiannavy—itusedtoimportcedarfromLebanontobuildshipsathugeexpense—butithasneverbeenablue-waternavy.

ModernEgyptnowhasthemostpowerfularmedforcesofalltheArabstates,thankstoAmericanmilitary aid; but it remains contained by deserts, the sea, and its peace treaty with Israel. It willremain in the news as it struggles to copewith feeding 84million people a daywhile battling anIslamist insurgency, especially in the Sinai, and guarding the SuezCanal, throughwhich passes 8percentoftheworld’sentiretradeeveryday.Some2.5percentoftheworld’soilpassesthiswaydaily;closingthecanalwouldaddaboutfifteendays’transittimetoEuropeandtentotheUnitedStates,withconcurrentcosts.

DespitehavingfoughtfivewarswithIsrael,thecountryEgyptismostlikelytocomeintoconflictwithnext is Ethiopia, and the issue is theNile.Two of the continent’s oldest countries,with thelargestarmies,maycometoblowsovertheregion’smajorsourceofwater.

The Blue Nile, which begins in Ethiopia, and the White Nile meet in the Sudanese capital,Khartoum,before flowingthroughtheNubianDesertand intoEgypt.Bythispoint themajorityofthewaterisfromtheBlueNile.

Ethiopia is sometimes calledAfrica’swater tower, due to itshighelevation, andhasmore thantwentydamsfedbytherainfallinitshighlands.In2011,AddisAbabaannouncedajointprojectwithChinatobuildamassivehydroelectricprojectontheBlueNileneartheSudanesebordercalledtheGrandEthiopianRenaissanceDam,scheduledtobefinishedby2020.Thedamwillbeusedtocreateelectricity, and the flow to Egypt should continue; but in theory the dam could also hold a year’sworthofwater,andcompletionoftheprojectwouldgiveEthiopiathepotentialtoholdthewaterforitsownuse,thusdrasticallyreducingtheflowintoEgypt.

Asthingsstand,Egypthasamorepowerfulmilitary,butthatisslowlychanging,andEthiopia,acountryof96millionpeople, isagrowingpower.Cairoknows this,andalso that,once thedamisbuilt,destroyingitwouldcreateafloodingcatastropheinbothEthiopiaandSudan.However,atthemomentitdoesnothaveacasusbellitostrikebeforecompletion,anddespitethefactthatacabinetministerwas recently caughtonmicrophone recommendingbombing, thenext fewyears aremorelikelytoseeintensenegotiations,withEgyptwantingcast-ironguaranteesthattheflowwillneverbestopped.Waterwarsareconsideredtobeamongtheimminentconflictsthiscentury,andthisisonetowatch.

Anotherhotlycontestedliquidisoil.Nigeria is sub-SaharanAfrica’s largest producer of oil, and all of this high-quality oil is in the

south.Nigeriansinthenorthcomplainthattheprofitsfromthatoilarenotsharedequitablyacrossthecountry’sregions.ThisinturnexacerbatestheethnicandreligioustensionsbetweenthepeoplesfromtheNigeriandeltaandthoseinthenortheast.

Bysize,population,andnaturalresources,NigeriaisWestAfrica’smostpowerfulcountry.Itisthecontinent’smostpopulousnation,with177millionpeople,which,withitssizeandnaturalresources,makesittheleadingregionalpower.ItisformedfromtheterritoriesofseveralancientkingdomsthattheBritishbroughttogetherasanadministrativearea.In1898,theydrewupa“BritishProtectorateontheRiverNiger”thatinturnbecameNigeria.

It may now be an independent regional powerhouse, but its people and resources have beenmismanagedfordecades.IncolonialtimestheBritishpreferredtostayinthesouthwesternareaalongthe coast.Their “civilizing”mission rarely extended to thehighlands of the center, nor up to theMuslimpopulationsinthenorth,andthishalfofthecountryremainslessdevelopedthanthesouth.Muchofthemoneymadefromoil isspentpayingoffthemoversandshakers inNigeria’scomplextribalsystem.TheonshoreoilindustryinthedeltaisalsobeingthreatenedbytheMovementfortheEmancipationoftheNigerDelta,afancynameforagroupthatdoesoperateinaregiondevastatedbytheoilindustrybutthatusesitasacoverforterrorismandextortion.Thekidnappingofforeignoilworkersismakingitalessandlessattractiveplacetodobusiness.Theoffshoreoilfieldsaremostlyfreeofthisactivityandthatiswheretheinvestmentisheading.

The Islamist groupBokoHaram,whichwants to establish a caliphate in theMuslim areas, hasused the sense of injustice engendered by underdevelopment to gain ground in the north. BokoHaramfightersareusuallyethnicallyKanurisfromthenortheast.Theyrarelyoperateoutsideoftheirhometerritory,notevenventuringwesttotheHausaregion,andcertainlynotwaydownsouthtothecoastalareas.ThismeansthatwhentheNigerianmilitarycomelookingforthem,BokoHaramareoperatingonhomeground.Muchofthelocalpopulationwillnotcooperatewiththemilitary,eitherforfearofreprisalorduetoasharedresentmentofthesouth.

Theterritory takenbyBokoHaramdoesnotyetendanger theexistenceof the stateofNigeria.Thegroupdoesnotevenposeathreattothecapital,Abuja,despiteitsbeingsituatedhalfwayupthecountry;buttheydoposeadailythreattopeopleinthenorthandtheydamageNigeria’sreputationabroadasaplacetodobusiness.

Mostof thevillages theyhavecapturedareon theMandaramountain range,whichbacksontoCameroon.ThismeansthenationalarmyisoperatingalongwayfromitsbasesandcannotsurroundaBokoHaram force.Cameroon’s governmentdoesnotwelcomeBokoHaram,but the countrysidegivesthefightersspacetoretreattoifrequired.Thesituationwillnotburnitselfoutforseveralyears,duringwhichtimeBokoHaramwill try to formallianceswith the jihadists upnorth in theSahelregion. Boko Haram has now changed its name to “Wilayat al Sudan al Gharbi,” which loosely

translates as “Islamic State’s West African Province.” However, its aims and methods have notaltered,mostpeople still call itby its former title,and thechangeappears tohavebeen simply tocapitalizeonthenamerecognitionand“cachet”ofthewordsIslamicState.

The Americans and French have tracked the problem for several years and now operatesurveillancedronesinresponsetothegrowingthreatofviolenceprojectingoutoftheSahel-SahararegionandconnectingwithnorthernNigeria.TheAmericansuseseveralbases,includingtheoneinDjibouti,which ispartof theUSAfricaCommand, setup in2007,and theFrenchhaveaccess toconcreteinvariouscountriesinwhattheycall“FrancophoneAfrica.”

The dangers of the threat spreading across several countries has been a wake-up call. Nigeria,Cameroon,andChadareallnowinvolvedmilitarilyandcoordinatingwiththeAmericansandtheFrench.

Farther south, down the Atlantic coast, is sub-Saharan Africa’s second-largest oil producer—Angola.TheformerPortuguesecolonyisoneoftheAfricannationstateswithnaturalgeographicalborders.ItisframedbytheAtlanticOceantothewest,byjungletothenorth,andbydeserttothesouth,whiletheeasternregionsaresparselypopulated,ruggedlandthatactsasabufferzonewiththeDRCandZambia.

Themajorityofthe22million–strongpopulationliveinthewesternhalf,whichiswellwateredandcansustainagriculture;andoffthecoastinthewestliemostofAngola’soilfields.TherigsoutintheAtlanticareownedmostlybyAmericancompanies,butmorethanhalfoftheoutputendsupinChina.ThismakesAngola(dependentontheebbandflowofsales)secondonlytoSaudiArabiaasthebiggestsupplierofcrudeoiltotheMiddleKingdom.

Angolaisanothercountryfamiliarwithconflict.Itswarforindependenceendedin1975whenthePortuguesegaveup,butitinstantlymorphedintoacivilwarbetweentribesdisguisedasacivilwarover ideology. Russia andCuba supported the “socialists,” theUnited States and apartheid SouthAfricabackedthe“rebels.”MostofthesocialistsoftheMPLA(PopularMovementfortheLiberationofAngola)were fromtheMbundu tribe,while theopposition rebel fightersweremostly from twoother main tribes, the Bakongo and the Ovimbundu. Their political disguise was as the FNLA(National Front for the Liberation of Angola) and UNITA (National Union for the TotalIndependenceofAngola).Manyofthecivilwarsofthe1960sand1970s followedthis template: ifRussiabackedaparticular side, that sidewould suddenly remember that ithad socialistprinciples,whileitsopponentswouldbecomeanti-Communist.

The Mbundu had the geographical but not the numerical advantage. They held the capital,Luanda;hadaccesstotheoilfieldsandthemainriver,theCuanza;andwerebackedbycountriesthatcould supply them with Russian arms and Cuban soldiers. They prevailed in 2002, and their topechelonsimmediatelyunderminedtheirownsomewhatquestionablesocialistcredentialsbyjoiningthelonglistofcolonialandAfricanleaderswhoenrichedthemselvesattheexpenseofthepeople.

Thissorryhistoryofdomesticandforeignexploitationcontinuesinthetwenty-firstcentury.Aswe’ve seen, theChinese are everywhere, theymean business, and they are now every bit as

involvedacrossthecontinentastheEuropeansandAmericans.AboutathirdofChina’soilimportscomefromAfrica,which—alongwiththepreciousmetalstobefoundinmanyAfricancountries—meanstheyhavearrived,andwillstay.EuropeanandAmericanoilcompaniesandbigmultinationalsarestillfarmoreheavilyinvolvedinAfrica,butChinaisquicklycatchingup.Forexample,inLiberiaitisseekingironore,intheDRCandZambiait’sminingcopperand,alsointheDRC,cobalt.IthasalreadyhelpeddeveloptheKenyanportofMombasaandisnowembarkingonmuchlargerprojectsjustasKenya’soilassetsarebeginningtobecomecommerciallyviable.

China’sstate-ownedChinaRoadandBridgeCorporationisbuildinga$14billionrailroadprojecttoconnectMombasatothecapitalcityofNairobi.Analystssaythetimetakenforgoodstotravelbetweenthetwocitieswillbereducedfromthirty-sixhourstoeighthours,withacorrespondingcutof60percentintransportcosts.ThereareevenplanstolinkNairobiuptoSouthSudan,andacrosstoUgandaandRwanda.Kenya intends,withChinesehelp, tobe the economicpowerhouseof theEasternSeaboard.

Over the southernborder,Tanzania is tryinga rival bid tobecomeEastAfrica’s leader andhasconcludedbillionsofdollars’worthofdealswiththeChineseoninfrastructureprojects. Ithasalsosigneda jointagreementwithChinaandanOmaniconstructioncompany tooverhaulandextendtheport ofBagamoyo, as themainport inDar esSalaam is severely congested. It is planned thatBagamoyowillbeabletohandle20millioncargocontainersayear,whichwillmakeitthebiggestportinAfrica.TanzaniaalsohasgoodtransportlinksintheSouthernAgriculturalGrowthCorridorof Tanzania and is connecting down into the fifteen-nation Southern African DevelopmentCommunity.ThisinturnlinksintotheNorth-SouthCorridor,whichconnectstheportofDurbantothecopperregionsoftheDRCandZambiawithspurs linkingtheportofDaresSalaamtoDurbanandMalawi.

Despite this,Tanzania looks as if itwill be the second-tier power along the east coast.Kenya’seconomy is the powerhouse in the five-nation East African Community, accounting forapproximately40percentoftheregion’sGDP.ItmayhavelessarablelandthanTanzania,butituseswhat is has muchmore efficiently. Its industrial system is alsomore efficient, as is its system ofgetting goods tomarket—both domestic and international. If it canmaintain political stability itlooksdestinedtoremainthedominantregionalpowerintheneartomediumterm.

China’spresencealsostretches intoNiger,withtheirNationalPetroleumCorporationinvestinginthesmalloil fieldintheTénéréfieldsinthecenterofthecountry.AndChineseinvestmentinAngola over the past decade exceeds $8 billion and is growing every year. The China RailwayEngineering Corporation (CREC) has already spent almost $2 billion modernizing the Benguelarailroadline,whichlinkstheDRCtotheAngolanportofLobitoontheAtlanticcoasteighthundredmilesaway.Inthiswaytravelthecobalt,copper,andmanganesewithwhichKatangaProvinceintheDRCiscursedandblessed.

In Luanda, theCREC is constructing a new international airport, and around the capital hugeapartment buildings built to the Chinese model have sprung up to house some of the estimated150,000to200,000Chineseworkersnowinthecountry.Thousandsoftheseworkersarealsotrainedinmilitaryskillsandcouldprovideaready-mademilitiaifChinasorequired.

WhatBeijingwantsinAngolaiswhatitwantseverywhere:thematerialswithwhichtomakeitsproducts, andpolitical stability to ensure the flowof thosematerials andproducts.So ifPresidentJoséEduardodosSantos,whohasbeeninchargeforthirty-sixyears,wantstopayMariahCarey$1milliontosingathisbirthdaypartyin2013,that’shisaffair.AndiftheMbundu,towhichdosSantosbelongs,continuetodominate,thatistheirs.

ChineseinvolvementisanattractivepropositionformanyAfricangovernments.Beijingandthebig Chinese companies don’t ask difficult questions about human rights, and they don’t demandeconomicreformorevensuggestthatcertainAfricanleadersstopstealingtheircountries’wealth,asthe IMForWorldBankmight. For example,China is Sudan’s biggest trading partner,which goessome way to explaining why China consistently protects Sudan at the UN Security Council andcontinuedtoback itsPresidentOmaral-Bashirevenwhentherewasanarrestwarrantout forhimissued by the International Criminal Court.Western criticism of this gets short shrift in Beijing,

however; it is regardedas simplyanotherpowerplayaimedat stoppingChina fromdoingbusiness,and hypocrisy, given the West’s history in Africa. Lecturing the African leaders is going out offashionduetotheharshrealitiesofglobaleconomiccompetitionandthethreatofIslamism.WhenPresidentObamavisitedKenya andEthiopia in late July 2015,hemadeheadlines in theWesternmedia for criticizing homophobia and corruption in the former country, and human rights in thelatter.Inreality,thecriticismwasmild.BothcountriesareseriousplayersintheAfricanUnionforcefightinginSomaliaandtheUSneedsthemonsideintheglobalwaronIslamistterror.Washington,DC,isalsoconsciousthatitnowplayssecondfiddletoChinainbusinesstermsacrossthecontinent.

All theChinesewant is the oil, theminerals, the preciousmetals, and themarkets.This is anequitablegovernment-to-governmentrelationship,butwewill see increasingtensionbetweenlocalpopulationsandtheChineseworkforcesoftenbroughtintoassistwiththebigprojects.Thisinturnmay draw Beijingmore into the local politics and require it to have some sort ofminormilitarypresenceinvariouscountries.

SouthAfricaisChina’slargesttradingpartnerinAfrica.Thetwocountrieshavealongpoliticalandeconomichistory andarewellplaced towork together.HundredsofChinese companies,bothstate-owned and private, now operate in Durban, Johannesburg, Pretoria, Cape Town, and PortElizabeth.

SouthAfrica’seconomyisrankedsecond-largestonthecontinent,behindNigeria.Itiscertainlythepowerhouseinthesouthintermsofitseconomy(threetimesthesizeofAngola’s),military,andpopulation(53million).SouthAfrica ismoredeveloped thanmanyAfricannations, thanks to itslocation at thevery southern tipof the continentwith access to twooceans; itsnaturalwealthofgold,silver,andcoal;andaclimateandlandthatallowforlarge-scalefoodproduction.

Becauseitislocatedsofarsouth,andthecoastalplainquicklyrisesintohighland,SouthAfricaisoneoftheveryfewAfricancountriesthatdonotsufferfromthecurseofmalaria,asmosquitoesfindit difficult to breed there. This allowed the European colonialists to push into its interior muchfartherandfasterthaninthemalaria-riddledtropics,settle,andbeginsmall-scaleindustrialactivitythatgrewintowhatisnowsouthernAfrica’sbiggesteconomy.

Formost of southernAfrica, doing business with the outside worldmeans doing business withPretoria,Bloemfontein,andCapeTown.SouthAfricahasuseditsnaturalwealthandlocationtotieits neighbors into its transport system, meaning there is a two-way rail and road conveyor beltstretchingfromtheportsinEastLondon,CapeTown,PortElizabeth,andDurban;stretchingnorththroughZimbabwe,Botswana,Zambia,Malawi,andTanzania;reachingevenintoKatangaProvinceof the DRC and eastward into Mozambique. The new Chinese-built railway from Katanga to theAngolancoasthasbeenlaidtochallengethisdominanceandmighttakesometrafficfromtheDRC,butSouthAfricalooksdestinedtomaintainitsadvantages.

Duringtheapartheidyears,theANC(AfricanNationalCongress)backedAngola’sMPLAinitsfight against Portuguese colonization. However, the passion of a shared struggle is turning into acooler relationshipnow that eachparty controls its respective country and competes at a regionallevel. Angola has a long way to go to catch up with South Africa. This will not be a militaryconfrontation: South Africa’s dominance is near total. It has large, well-equipped armed forcescomprisingonehundredthousandpersonnel,dozensoffighterjetsandattackhelicopters,aswellasseveralmodernsubmarinesandfrigates.

InthedaysoftheBritishEmpire,controllingSouthAfricameantcontrollingtheCapeofGoodHopeand thus the sea-lanesbetween theAtlanticand IndianOceans.ModernnaviescanventuremuchfartheroutfromthesouthernAfricancoastlineiftheywishtopassby,butthecapeisstilla

commandingpieceofrealestateontheworldmapandSouthAfricaisacommandingpresenceinthewholeofthebottomthirdofthecontinent.

ThereisanewscrambleforAfricainthiscentury,butthistimeitistwo-pronged.Therearethewell-publicizedoutsideinterests,andmeddling,inthecompetitionforresources,butthereisalsothe“scramblewithin”andSouthAfricaintendstoscramblefastestandfarthest.

It dominates the fifteen-nation Southern African Development Community (SADC) and hasmanagedtogainapermanentplaceattheInternationalConferenceontheGreatLakesRegion,ofwhich it is not even a member. The SADC is rivaled by the East African Community (EAC)comprising Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Uganda, and Tanzania. The latter is also a member of theSADC,andtheotherEACmemberstakeadimviewofitsflirtationwithSouthAfrica.Foritspart,SouthAfricaappearstoviewTanzaniaasitsvehicleforgaininggreaterinfluenceintheGreatLakesregionandbeyond.

The South African National Defense Force has a brigade in the DRC officially under thecommandoftheUN,butitwassenttherebyitspoliticalmasterstoensurethatSouthAfricaisnotleftoutfromthespoilsofwarinthatmineral-richcountry.ThishasbroughtitintocompetitionwithUganda,Burundi, andRwanda,whichhave their own ideas aboutwho should be in charge in theDRC.

TheAfrica of the pastwas given no choice—its geography shaped it—and then the Europeansengineeredmostoftoday’sborders.Now,withitsboomingpopulationsanddevelopingmegacities,ithasnochoicebuttoembracethemodernglobalizedworldtowhichitissoconnected.Inthis,despitealltheproblemswehaveseen,itismakinghugestrides.

Thesamerivers thathamperedtradearenowharnessed forhydroelectricpower.Fromtheearththatstruggledtosustain large-scale foodproductioncomemineralsandoil,makingsomecountriesrich even if little of the wealth reaches the people. Nevertheless, in most, but not all, countriespoverty has fallen as health-care and education levels have risen. Many countries are English-speaking, which in an English-language-dominated global economy is an advantage, and thecontinenthasseeneconomicgrowthovermostofthepastdecade.

Onthedownside,economicgrowthinmanycountriesisdependentonglobalpricesformineralsandenergy.Countrieswhosenationalbudgetsarepredicatedonreceiving$100perbarrelofoil,forexample,havelittletofallbackonwhenpricesdropto$80or$60.Manufacturing-outputlevelsareclose to where they were in the 1970s. Corruption remains rampant across the continent, and inaddition to the few “hot” conflicts (Somalia,Nigeria,Sudan, for example), there are severalmoreeconomiesthataremerelyfrozen.

Nevertheless, every year more roads and railroads are being built connecting this incrediblydiversespace.ThevastdistancesoftheoceansanddesertsseparatingAfrica fromeverywherehavebeen overcome by air travel, and industrial muscle has created harbors in places nature had notintendedthemtobe.

In every decade since the 1960s, optimists have written about how Africa is on the brink ofprevailingoverthehandthathistoryandnaturehavedealtit.Perhapsthistimeitistrue.Itneedstobe.Bysomeestimates,Sub-SaharanAfricacurrentlyholds1.1billionpeople—by2050thatmayjustmorethandouble,to2.4billion.

6

THEMIDDLEEAST

We’vebrokenSykes-Picot!—IslamicStatefighter,2014

TheMiddleofwhat?Eastofwhere?Theregion’sverynameisbasedonaEuropeanviewoftheworld,anditisaEuropeanviewoftheregionthatshapedit.TheEuropeansusedinktodrawlinesonmaps:theywerelinesthatdidnotexistinrealityandcreatedsomeofthemostartificialborderstheworldhasseen.Anattemptisnowbeingmadetoredrawtheminblood.

One of the most important pieces of video to emerge from the Middle East in 2014 wasovershadowedthatyearbyfootageofexplosionsandbeheadings.Itisapieceofslickpropagandabythe Islamic State and shows a bulldozer wiping, or rather pushing, the Iraqi-Syrian border out ofexistence. The border is simply a high berm of sand. Move the sand, and the border no longerphysicallyexists.This“line”stillexistsintheory.Thenextfewyearswilldeterminewhetherthewordsof the Islamic State fighter quoted above are prophetic, ormere bravado: “We are destroying thebordersandbreakingthebarriers.ThanksbetoAllah.”

AftertheFirstWorldWar,therewerefewerbordersinthewiderMiddleEastthancurrentlyexist,andthosethatdidexistwereusuallydeterminedbygeographyalone.Thespaceswithinthemwereloosely subdivided and governed according to geography, ethnicity, and religion, but therewas noattempttocreatenationstates.

TheGreaterMiddleEastextendsacrossonethousandmiles,westtoeast,fromtheMediterraneanSeatothemountainsofIran.Fromnorthtosouth,ifwestartattheBlackSeaandendontheshoresoftheArabianSeaoffOman,itistwothousandmileslong.Theregionincludesvastdeserts,oases,snow-covered mountains, long rivers, great cities, and coastal plains. And it has a great deal ofnatural wealth in the form that every industrialized and industrializing country around the worldneeds—oilandgas.

ItalsocontainsthefertileregionknownasMesopotamia,the“landbetweentherivers”(Euphratesand Tigris).However, themost dominant feature is the vastArabianDesert and scrubland in itscenter,whichtouchespartsofIsrael,Jordan,Syria,Iraq,Kuwait,Oman,Yemen,andmostofSaudiArabia,includingtheRubalKhalior“EmptyQuarter.”Thisisthelargestcontinuoussanddesertintheworld,incorporatinganareathesizeofFrance.Itisduetothisfeaturethatnotonlythemajorityoftheinhabitantsoftheregionliveonitsperiphery,butalsothat,untilEuropeancolonization,mostofthepeoplewithinitdidnotthinkintermsofnationstatesandlegallyfixedborders.

Thenotionthatamanfromacertainareacouldnottravelacrossaregiontoseearelativefromthesametribeunlesshehadadocument,grantedtohimbyathirdmanhedidn’tknowinafarawaytown,madelittlesense.Theideathatthedocumentwasissuedbecauseaforeignerhadsaidthearea

wasnowtworegionsandhadmadeupnamesforthemmadenosenseatallandwascontrarytothewayinwhichlifehadbeenlivedforcenturies.

TheOttomanEmpire(1299–1922)was ruled fromIstanbul.At itsheight, it stretched fromthegatesofVienna,acrossAnatolia,anddownthroughArabiatotheIndianOcean.FromwesttoeastittookinwhatarenowAlgeria,Libya,Egypt,Israel/Palestine,Syria,Jordan,Iraq,andpartsofIran.Ithadneverbotheredtomakeupnamesformostoftheseregions;in1867itsimplydividedthemintoadministrativeareasknownasVilayets,whichwereusuallybasedonwhere certain tribes lived,betheytheKurdsinpresent-daynorthernIraq,orthetribalfederationsinwhatisnowpartofSyriaandpartofIraq.

WhentheOttomanEmpirebegantocollapse,theBritishandFrenchhadadifferentidea.In1916,theBritishdiplomatColonelSirMarkSykestookagreasepencilanddrewacrudelineacrossamapoftheMiddleEast.ItranfromHaifaontheMediterraneaninwhatisnowIsraeltoKirkuk(nowinIraq) in the northeast. It became the basis of his secret agreement with his French counterpartFrançoisGeorges-PicottodividetheregionintotwospheresofinfluenceshouldtheTripleEntentedefeat the Ottoman Empire in the First World War. North of the line was to be under Frenchcontrol,southofitunderBritishhegemony.

ThetermSykes-Picothasbecomeshorthandforthevariousdecisionsmadeinthefirstthirdofthetwentiethcentury,whichbetrayedpromisesgiventotribal leadersandwhichpartiallyexplainstheunrestandextremismoftoday.Thisexplanationcanbeoverstated,though:therewasviolenceandextremism before the Europeans arrived. Nevertheless, as we saw in Africa, arbitrarily creating“nation states” out of people unused to living together in one region is not a recipe for justice,equality,andstability.

PriortoSykes-Picot(initswidersense),therewasnostateofSyria,noLebanon,norwerethereJordan,Iraq,SaudiArabia,Kuwait,Israel,orPalestine.Modernmapsshowthebordersandthenamesofnationstates,buttheyareyoungandtheyarefragile.

IslamisthedominantreligionoftheMiddleEastbutcontainswithinitmanydifferentversions.Themost important divisionwithin Islam is almost as old as the religion itself: the split betweenSunni and ShiaMuslims dates back to 632 CE, when the prophetMuhammad died, leading to adisputeoverhissuccession.

The Sunni Muslims form the majority among Arabs, and indeed among the world’s Muslimpopulation,comprisingperhaps85percentofthetotal,althoughwithinsomeoftheArabcountriesthepercentagesarelessdistinct.Thenamecomesfromal-Sunna,or“peopleoftradition.”Uponthedeath of the prophet, those whowould become Sunni argued that his successor should be chosenusingArabtribaltraditions.TheyregardthemselvesasOrthodoxMuslims.

ThenameShiaderivesfromshiatAli,literally“thepartyofAli,”andreferstotheson-in-lawoftheprophetMuhammad.Ali and his sons,Hassan andHussein,were all assassinated and thus deniedwhattheShiafeelwastheirbirthright—toleadtheIslamiccommunity.

FromthissprangseveraldoctrinaldisputesandculturalpracticesdividingthetwomainbranchesofIslamthathaveledtodisputesandwarfare,althoughtherehavealsobeenlongperiodsofpeacefulcoexistence.

There are also divisions within the division. For example, there are various branches of SunniIslam that follow particular great scholars from the past, including the strict Hanbali tradition,namedaftertheninth-centuryIraqischolarAhmadibnHanbal,favoredbymanySunnisfromQatarand Saudi Arabia; this in turn has influenced the ultra-puritanical Salafi thought, whichpredominatesamongjihadists.

ShiaIslamhasthreemaindivisions,thebestknownofwhichisprobablytheTwelvers,whoadheretotheteachingofthetwelveimams,buteventhatcontainsdivisions.TheIsmailischooldisputesthelineageoftheseventhimam,whiletheZaidischooldisputesthatofthefifthimam.Therearealsoseveraloffshoots frommainstreamShiaIslam,withtheAlawitesandDruzebeingconsideredso farawayfromtraditionalIslamicthoughtthatmanyotherMuslims,especiallyamongtheSunni,donotevenrecognizethemasbeingpartofthereligion.

ThelegacyofEuropeancolonialismlefttheArabsgroupedintonationstatesandruledbyleaderswhotendedtofavorwhicheverbranchofIslam(andtribe)fromwhichtheythemselvescame.ThesedictatorsthenusedthemachineryofstatetoensuretheirwritruledovertheentireareawithintheartificiallinesdrawnbytheEuropeans,regardlessofwhetherthiswashistoricallyappropriateandfairtothedifferenttribesandreligionsthathadbeenthrowntogether.

Iraq is aprimeexampleof the ensuingconflicts andchaos.Themore religious among theShianeveracceptedthataSunni-ledgovernmentshouldhavecontrolovertheirholycitiessuchasNajafandKarbala,wheretheirmartyrsAliandHusseinaresaidtobeburied.Thesecommunalfeelingsgobackcenturies;afewdecadesofbeingcalled“Iraqis”wasnevergoingtodilutesuchemotions.

AsrulersoftheOttomanEmpiretheTurkssawarugged,mountainousareadominatedbyKurds,then,asthemountainsfellawayintotheflatlandsleadingtowardBaghdadandwesttowhatisnowSyria,theysawaplacewherethemajorityofpeoplewereSunniArabs.Finally,after thetwogreatrivers of the Tigris and the Euphrates merged and ran down to the Shatt al-Arab waterway, themarshlands, and thecityofBasra, they sawmoreArabs,mostofwhomwereShia.They ruled thisspaceaccordingly,dividingitintothreeadministrativeregions:Mosul,Baghdad,andBasra.

In antiquity, the regions very roughly corresponding to the above were known as Assyria,Babylonia,andSumer.WhenthePersianscontrolledthespacetheydivideditinasimilarway,asdidAlexander the Great, and later the Umayyad dynasty. The British looked at the same area anddividedthethree intoone,a logical impossibilityChristianscanresolvethroughtheHolyTrinity,butwhichinIraqhasresultedinan“unholy”mess.

Manyanalystssaythatonlyastrongmancouldunitethesethreeareasintoonecountry,andIraqhadonestrongmanafteranother.Butinrealitythepeoplewereneverunified;theywereonlyfrozenwith fear. In the one place that the dictators could not see, people’s minds, few bought into thepropaganda of the state, which wallpapered over the systematic persecution of the Kurds, thedomination by SaddamHussein’s SunniMuslim clan from his hometown of Tikrit, and themassslaughteroftheShiaaftertheirfaileduprisingin1991.

TheKurdswerethefirsttoleave.Thesmallestminoritiesinadictatorshipwillsometimespretendto believe the propaganda that their rights are protected because they lack the strength to doanythingaboutthereality.Forexample,Iraq’sChristianminority,anditshandfulofJews,felttheymightbesaferkeepingquietinaseculardictatorship,suchasSaddam’s,thanriskchangeandwhattheyfearedmightfollow,andindeedhasfollowed.However,theKurdsweregeographicallydefinedand, crucially, numerous enough to be able to react when the reality of dictatorship became toomuch.

Iraq’s five million Kurds are concentrated in the north and northeastern provinces of Erbil,Sulaymaniyah, and Dahuk and their surrounding areas. It is a giant crescent of mostly hills andmountains, which meant the Kurds retained their distinct identity despite repeated cultural andmilitary attacks against them, such as the al-Anfal campaign of 1988, which included aerial gasattacks against villages. During the eight-stage campaign, Saddam’s forces took no prisoners and

killed allmales between the ages of fifteen and fiftywhom they came across.Up to one hundredthousandKurdsweremurderedand90percentoftheirvillageswipedoffthemap.

Whenin1990SaddamHusseinoverreachedintoKuwait,theKurdswentontoseizetheirchancetomakehistoryandturnKurdistanintotherealitytheyhadbeenpromisedaftertheFirstWorldWarintheTreatyofSèvres(1920),butnevergranted.AtthetailendoftheGulfWarconflict,theKurdsroseup, theAllied forcesdeclareda“safezone” intowhichIraqi forceswerenotallowed,andadefactoKurdistanbegantotakeshape.The2003invasionofIraqbytheUnitedStatescementedwhatappearstobeafact—BaghdadwillnotagainruletheKurds.

Kurdistanisnotasovereign-recognizedstatebutithasmanyofthetrappingsofone,andcurrenteventsintheMiddleEastonlyaddtotheprobabilitythattherewillbeaKurdistaninnameandininternational law.Thequestionsare:What shapewill itbe?AndhowwillSyria,Turkey,and IranreactiftheirKurdishregionsattempttobepartof itandtrytocreateacontiguousKurdistanwithaccesstotheMediterranean?

There will be another problem: unity among the Kurds. Iraqi Kurdistan has long been dividedbetweentworivalfamilies.Syria’sKurdsaretryingtocreateastatelettheycallRojava.Theyseeitaspartofa future,greaterKurdistan,but intheeventof itscreation,questionswouldariseas towhowould have howmuch power, and where. If Kurdistan does become an internationally recognizedstate,thentheshapeofIraqwillchange.ThatassumestherewillbeanIraq.Theremaynotbe.

Althoughnotarecognizedstate, there isan identifiable“Kurdistan”region.Crossingbordersas itdoes, this isanareaofpotentialtroubleshouldtheKurdishregionsattempttoestablishanindependentcountry.

TheHashemiteKingdom, as Jordan is also known, is another place thatwas carved out of thedesertbytheBritish,whoin1918hadonelargepieceofterritorytoadministerandseveralproblemstosolve.

VariousArabiantribeshadhelpedtheBritishagainsttheOttomansduringtheFirstWorldWar,but therewere two in particular that London promised to reward at thewar’s end.Unfortunately,bothwere promised the same thing—control of theArabianPeninsula.Given that the Saudi and

Hashemitetribes frequently foughteachother, thiswasa littleawkward.SoLondondustedoff themaps,drewsomelines,andsaidtheheadoftheSaudifamilycouldruleoveroneregionandtheheadoftheHashemitescouldruletheother,althougheachwould“need”aBritishdiplomattokeepaneyeon things.TheSaudi leader eventually landedon aname forhis territory, calling it afterhimself,hence we know the area as Saudi Arabia—the rough equivalent would be calling the UK“Windsorland.”

TheBritish,sticklersforadministration,namedtheotherareaTransjordan,whichwasshorthandfor “theother side of the JordanRiver.”Adusty little town calledAmmanbecame the capital ofTransjordan,andwhentheBritishwenthomein1948thecountry’snamechangedtoJordan.ButtheHashemiteswerenotfromtheAmmanarea:theywereoriginallypartofthepowerfulQureshi tribefrom the Mecca region, and the original inhabitants were mostly Bedouin. The majority of thepopulationisnowPalestinian:whentheIsraelisoccupiedtheWestBankin1967,manyPalestiniansfled to Jordan,whichwas theonlyArab state to grant themcitizenship.Wenowhavea situationwhere the majority of Jordan’s 6.5 million citizens are Palestinian, many of whom do not regardthemselvesasloyalsubjectsofthecurrentHashemiteruler,KingAbdullah.AddedtothisproblemaretheonemillionIraqiandSyrianrefugees thecountryhasalso taken inwhoareputtingahugestrainonitsextremelylimitedresources.

Suchchangestoacountry’sdemographicscancauseseriousproblems,andnowheremoresothaninLebanon.

Until the twentieth century, the Arabs in the region saw the area between the LebanesemountainsandtheseaassimplyaprovinceoftheregionofSyria.TheFrench,intowhosegraspitfellaftertheFirstWorldWar,sawthingsdifferently.

TheFrenchhad long allied themselveswith the region’sArabChristians andbyway of thanksmade up a country for them in a place in which they appeared in the 1920s to be the dominantpopulation.AstherewasnootherobviousnameforthiscountrytheFrenchnameditafterthenearbymountains,andthusLebanonwasborn.Thisgeographical fancyhelduntil the late1950s.By thenthe birthrate among Lebanon’s Shia and Sunni Muslims was growing faster than that of theChristians,while theMuslimpopulationhadbeen swollenbyPalestinians fleeing the1948Arab–IsraeliWarinneighboringIsrael/Palestine.Therehasbeenonlyoneofficialcensus inLebanon(in1932),becausedemographics is sucha sensitive issueand thepolitical system ispartiallybasedonpopulationsizes.

Therehavelongbeenboutsof fightingbetweenthevariousconfessionalgroups inthearea,andwhat some historians call the first Lebanese civil war broke out in 1958 between the MaroniteChristiansandtheMuslims,whobythistimeprobablyslightlyoutnumberedtheChristians.Theyarenowinaclearmajoritybuttherearestillnoofficialfigures,andacademicstudiescitingnumbersarefiercelycontested.

Some parts of the capital, Beirut, are exclusively Shia Muslim, as is most of the south of thecountry. This is where the Shia Hezbollah group (backed by Shia-dominated Iran) is dominant.Another Shia stronghold is the Bekaa Valley, which Hezbollah has used as a staging post for itsforages into Syria to support government forces there. Other towns are overwhelmingly SunniMuslim.Forexample,Tripoli,inthenorth,isthoughttobe80percentSunni,butitalsohasasizableAlawiteminority,andgiventheSunni-AlawitetensionsnextdoorinSyria,thishasledtosporadicboutsoffighting.

Lebanonappearstobeaunifiedstateonlyfromtheperspectiveofseeingitonamap.Ittakesjusta fewminutes after arriving at BeirutAirport to discover it is far from that. The drive from the

airporttothecentertakesyoupasttheexclusivelyShiasouthernsuburbs,whicharepartiallypolicedby theHezbollahmilitia, probably themost efficient fighting force in the country. The Lebanesearmy exists onpaper, but in the event of another civilwar, such as that of 1975–90, itwould fallapart,assoldiersinmostunitswouldsimplygobacktotheirhometownsandjointhelocalmilitias.

That is, inpart,whathappened to theSyrian armed forcesonce the civilwar there really tookholdtowardtheendof2011.

Syriaisanothermulti-faith,multi-confessional,multi-tribalstatethatfellapartatthefirsttimeofasking. Typical of the region, the country is majority Sunni Muslim—about 70 percent—but hassubstantialminoritiesofotherfaiths.Until2011manycommunitieslivedsidebysideinthetowns,cities,andcountryside,buttherewerestilldistinctareasinwhichaparticulargroupdominated.Asin Iraq, locals would always tell you, “We are one people, there are no divisions between us.”However,asinIraq,yourname,placeofbirth,orplaceofhabitationusuallymeantyourbackgroundcouldbeeasilyidentified,and,asinIraq,itdidn’ttakemuchtopulltheonepeopleapartintomany.

WhentheFrenchruledtheregiontheyfollowedtheBritishexampleofdivideandrule.Atthattime,theAlawiteswereknownasNusayris.ManySunnisdonotcountthemasMuslims,andsuchwasthehostilitytowardthemthattheyrebrandedthemselvesasAlawites,asin“followersofAli”toreinforce their Islamic credentials. Theywere a backward hill people, at the bottom of the socialstratainSyriansociety.TheFrenchtookthemandputthemintothepoliceforceandmilitary,fromwhere,overtheyears,theyestablishedthemselvesasamajorpowerintheland.

Fundamentally,everyonewasawareofthetensionofhavingleadersfromasmallminorityofthepopulation ruling the majority. The Assad clan, from which President Bashar al-Assad comes, isAlawite, which comprises approximately 12 percent of the population. The family has ruled thecountrysinceBashar’s father,Hafez, tookpower inacoupd’état in1970. In1982,HafezcrushedaMuslimBrotherhood Sunni uprising inHama, killing perhaps thirty thousand people over severaldays.TheBrotherhoodneverforgaveorforgot,andwhenthenationwideuprisingbeganin2011therewerescorestobesettled.InsomerespectstheensuingcivilwarwassimplyHama,parttwo.

The final shape andmakeup of Syria is now in question, but there is one scenario inwhich, ifDamascusfalls(althoughthatisfarfromprobable),theAlawitesretreattotheirancientcoastalandhill strongholdsand formamini-statelet suchasexisted inthe1920sand1930s. It is theoreticallypossible,buthundredsof thousandsofSunniMuslimswould remain in the region,andwereanewSunni-dominatedgovernment tobe formed inDamascus,oneof itsprioritieswouldbe to securearoutetotheSyriancoastanddefeatthelastpocketsofresistance.

Inthenearfuture,Syrialooksasifitisdestinedtoberuledasanumberoffiefdomswithvariouswarlordsholding sway.At the timeof thiswriting,Presidental-Assad is simply themostpowerfulwarlord ofmany. Lebanon’smost recent civil war lasted for fifteen years, and at times it remainsperilouslyclosetoanotherone.Syriamaysufferasimilarfate.

It is doubtful thatwhoever eventually “wins”would look kindly upon aKurdish stateletwithinwhat are nominally the borders of Syria.Not onlywould theSyrianSunnimajority oppose losingterritory, but the Turks would be horrified at having a SyrianKurdish state on its borders. Therewould inevitably bemoves to join it up to some of the Kurdish-dominated regions inside Turkeyitself.

InJulyandAugustof2015,whentheTurks finallycrackeddownontheIslamicState forces inNorthernSyria,theyalsotooktheopportunitytodeliverseveralpainfulblowstoKurdishforcesaswell,evenattheriskofreignitingthecivilwarinsideTurkeybetweentheKurdsandthestate.

Syria has also become, like Lebanon, a place used by outside powers to further their own aims.Russia, Iran, and Lebanese Hezbollah support the Syrian government forces. The Arab countriessupport the opposition, but different states support different opposition groups: the Saudis andQataris,forexample,arebothvyingforinfluencebuteachbacksadifferentproxytoachieveit.

It will require skill, courage, and an element so often lacking—compromise—to hold many oftheseregionstogetherasasinglegovernablespace.EspeciallyasSunnijihadistfightersaretryingtopullthemapartinordertowidentheir“caliphate.”

Groups suchasal-Qaedaand,morerecently, theIslamicStatehavegarneredwhat support theyhave partially because of the humiliation caused by colonialism and then the failure of pan-Arabnationalism—andtoanextenttheArabnationstate.Arableadershavefailedtodeliverprosperityorfreedom,andthesirencallofIslamism,whichpromisestosolveallproblems,hasprovedattractivetomany in a regionmarkedby a toxicmixof piety, unemployment, and repression.The IslamistsharkbacktoagoldenagewhenIslamruledanempireandwasatthecuttingedgeoftechnology,art,medicine, and government. They have helped bring to the surface the ancient suspicions of “theother”throughouttheMiddleEast.

The Islamic State grew out of the “al-Qaeda in Iraq” franchise group in the late 2000s, whichnominallywasdirectedbytheremnantsoftheal-Qaedaleadership.BythetimetheSyriancivilwarwasinfull flowthegrouphadsplit fromal-Qaedaandrenameditself.Atfirst itwasknownbytheoutsideworldasISIL(IslamicStateofIraqandtheLevant)butastheArabicwordfortheLevantisal-Sham,graduallyitbecameISIS.Inthesummerof2014thegroupbegancallingitselftheIslamicState,havingproclaimedsuchanentityinlargepartsofIraqandSyria.

Itquicklybecamethe“goto”jihadistgroup,drawingthousandsofforeignMuslimstothecause,partiallyduetoitspiousromanticismandpartiallyforitsbrutality.Itsmainattraction,though,wasits success increatingacaliphate;whereal-Qaedamurderedpeopleandcapturedheadlines, the ISmurderedpeopleandcapturedterritory.

TheISalsoseizeduponanareathatisincreasinglyimportantintheInternetage—psychologicalspace. It built on the pioneering work of al-Qaeda in socialmedia and took it to new heights ofsophistication and brutality. By 2015, the IS was ahead of any government in levels of publicmessaging, using jihadists brought up on the sometimes brutalizing effects of the Internet and itsobsessionwithviolenceandsex.TheyareGenerationJackassJihadisandtheyareaheadofthedeadlygame.

Bythesummerof2015manyArabsacrosstheMiddleEast,includingmostoftheregionalmedia,werecallingtheIslamicStatebyanothername,onewhichencapsulatedhowrepulsivemanyordinarypeoplefelttheorganizationtobe—DAESH.

It is an acronym of sorts for theArabicDawlat al-Islamiya f’al-Iraq wa al-Shams, but the reasonpeoplecameupwiththenameisbecausetheIslamicStatemembershatetheterm.Itsoundssimilartotheworddaes—onewhoisunderhandedandsowsdissent.Moreimportant,itrhymeswithnegativewords such as fahish—“sinner”—and best of all, for thosewho despise the organization’s particularbrandof Islam, is that it rhymeswithandsoundsabit like jahesh—“stupidass.”This isworse thanbeingcalledadonkey,becauseinArabcultureoneofthefewthingsmorestupidthanadonkeyisanass.

In2015,thewarragedbackandforthacrosspartsofIraqwiththeIslamicStatelosingthetownofTikrit,buttakingRamadi,whichthegovernmentthenhadtofightforyetagain.

InthebattleforTikrittheUSAirForcefounditselfintheoddpositionofflyingreconnaissancemissionsand limitedair strikes,whichassisted IranianRevolutionaryGuardcommanderswhohad

beenbroughtintooverseetheIraqiassaultonthetown.TheISwantedTikritpartiallytoguardagainsttheIraqigovernmenttryingtoretakeMosultothe

north,butmoreimportanttothemwasRamadi.ItisinAnbarprovince,whichisanoverwhelminglySunniregionofIraqandlinksthroughtotheSyrianborder.Holdingtheterritorystrengthenedtheirclaimtobea“state.”

August 2015 marked the first anniversary of the American-led bombing missions against theIslamicStateinbothIraqandSyria.TherehavebeenthousandsofairstrikeswithmanyoftheUSplanesflyingfromtheUSSGeorgeH.W.BushandUSSCarlVinsonaircraftcarriersintheGulf.TheF-22Raptorstealthjetfighterwasalsointroducedtothefightin2015,attackingtheIslamicState’soil facilities fromabase in theUnitedArabEmirates,andotherplaneshave flownoutofKuwait.TheUSpilots,who flew themajority of themissions, suffered fromnothavingAmericanSpecialForcesforwardaircontrollerscallinginthecoordinatesforthestrikes.Astargetswerefrequentlyintheurbanareas,the“rulesofengagement”meantmanyplanesreturnedtotheirbaseswithoutfiringtheirweapons.

Thousandsof“drone”missionshavebeenflownaswell,somefromwithintheContinentalUnitedStates. Drones are a clear modern example of technology overcoming some of the restrictions ofgeography but at the same time serving to underline geography’s importance. The United Stateshousesitsgrowingfleetofdronesonatleasttenbasesaroundtheworld.Thisallowsittohittargetsviaajoystickoperatedbyapersonsittinginanair-conditionedofficeinNevada,ortransfercontroltoanoperativenearthetarget.ButitalsomeanstheUnitedStatesneedstokeepgoodrelationswithwhichevercountryitreceivespermissionfromtohousetheregionaldroneHQ.Thisisareminderofthe conceptualmap ofUS power required to fully understand geopolitics today. For example, thesignal sent fromNevadamayneedto travel throughanunderwatercable toGermanyandthenbesentuptoasatellitebelongingtoathirdcountrythatsellsbandwidthtothePentagon.

Drone strikes are also subject to rules of engagement, but have been used to devastating effectagainst individual targets.Theymadeahugecontribution to the situation the IslamicState founditselfinduringthesummerof2015,whenithadlostseveralthousandsquaremilesofterritoryinIraqeventhoughitstillcontrolledlargeswathsoftheSunni-dominatedregionsofthecountry.

SunniIslamistfightersfromacrosstheglobe,drawnlikemothstothelightofabillionpixels,havetakenadvantageof the three-way splitbetween theKurds,Sunni, andShia in Iraq.Theyoffer theSunniArabsaheadymixofthepromiseofrestoringthemtotheir“rightful”placeasthedominantforce in the region, and the reestablishment of the caliphate in which their version of all truebelievers(SunniMuslims)liveunderoneruler.

However, it is the very fanaticism of their beliefs and practices that explainswhy they cannotachievetheirutopianfantasies.

First, only some of theSunni Iraqi tribeswill support the jihadist aims, and even then only toachievetheirownends—whichdonotincludeareturntothesixthcentury.Oncetheygetwhattheywant, they will then turn on the jihadists, especially the foreign ones. Second, the jihadists havedemonstratedthatthereisnomercyforanyonewhoopposesthemandthatbeinganon-Sunniisakinto a death sentence. So, all non-Sunni Muslims and all the minorities in Iraq—Christians,Chaldeans,Yazidis,andothers—areagainstthem,asaredozensofWesternandMuslimcountries.

Thenon-jihadistIraqiSunnisareinadifficultposition.IntheeventofeitherafragmentedoralegallyfederalizedIraq,theyarestuckinthemiddle,surroundedbysandinanareathatisknownastheSunniTriangle,withitspointsroughlylocatedjusteastofBaghdad,westofRamadi,andnorthof

Tikrit.SunnislivinghereoftenhavemoreincommonwiththeirrelatedtribesinSyriathantheydowiththeKurdsinthenorthortheShiaofthesouth.

There is not enough economic diversity within the triangle to sustain a Sunni entity. Historybequeathed oil to “Iraq,” but the de facto division of the country means the oil is mostly in theKurdishandShiaareas;andifthereisnostrong,unifiedIraqthentheoilmoneyflowsbacktowheretheoilisfound.TheKurdishlandscannotbebroughtundertheircontrol,thecitiessouthofBaghdadsuchasNajaf andKarbalaareoverwhelminglyShia, and theportsofBasraandUmmQasrare faraway from the Sunni territory. This dilemma leaves the Sunnis fighting for an equal share in acountrytheyonceruled,sometimestoyingwiththeideaofseparation,butknowingthattheirfuturewouldprobablybeself-ruleovernotverymuch.

Intheeventofasplit,theShiaaregeographicallybestplacedtotakeadvantage.Theregiontheydominatehasoilfields;thirty-fivemilesofcoastline;theShattal-Arabwaterway;ports;accesstotheoutsideworld;andareligious,economic,andmilitaryallynextdoorintheformofIran.

The jihadist fantasy is global domination by Salafi Islam. In their more lucid, yet still wild,moments,theyplan,andfight,foramorelimitedaim—acaliphatethroughouttheMiddleEast.Oneofthejihadists’battlecriesis“FromMosultoJerusalem!”meaningthattheyhopetocontroltheareafromMosul in Iraq right across toBeirut in Lebanon,Amman in Jordan, and Jerusalem in Israel.However,therealsizeoftheIslamicState’sgeographicalcaliphateislimitedbyitscapabilities.

ThisisnottounderestimatetheproblemorthescaleofwhatmaybetheArabversionofEurope’sThirty Years’War (1618–48). It is not just aMiddle Eastern problem.Many of the internationaljihadists who survive will return home to Europe, North America, Indonesia, the Caucasus, andBangladesh,where they are unlikely to settle for a quiet life.The intelligence services in LondonbelievetherearefarmoreBritishMuslimsfightingintheMiddleEastforjihadistgroupsthanthereareservingintheBritisharmy.TheradicalizationprogramundertakenbytheIslamistsbeganseveraldecadesbeforethederadicalizationinitiativesnowunderwayinEuropeancountries.

Mostcountries in the region face theirownversionof this generational struggle to a greater orlesserdegree.SaudiArabia,forexample,hastakenonal-Qaedacellsoverthepastdecade,buthavingmostlytakenthemapart,itnowfacesrenewedchallengesfromthenextgenerationofjihadists.Ithasanother problem in the south, on the border with Yemen, which itself is blighted with violence,separatistmovements,andastrongjihadistelement.

There is alsoa simmering Islamistmovement in Jordan, especially in the townofZarqa, in thenortheast toward the Syrian and Iraqi borders, which is home to some of the several thousandsupportersofgroupssuchasal-QaedaandtheIslamicState.Theauthoritiesarefearfulofajihadistgroup in Iraq or Syria reaching the now fragile borders in strength and crossing into Jordan. TheBritish-trained Jordanian army is thought to be one of themost robust in theMiddle East, but itmightstruggletocopeiflocalIslamistsandforeignfighterstooktothestreetsinguerrillawarfare.IfthePalestinianJordaniansdeclinedtodefendthecountry,itisnotunrealistictobelievethatitwoulddescendintothesortofchaoswenowseeinSyria.ThisisthelastthingtheHashemiterulerswant—andit’sthelastthingtheIsraeliswantaswell.

Thebattle for the futureof theArabMiddleEasthas, to anextent, taken the spotlightoff theIsraeli-Arabstruggle.ThefixationwithIsrael/Palestinedoessometimesreturn,butthemagnitudeofwhat is going on elsewhere has finally enabled at least some observers to understand that theproblemsof theregiondonotcomedowntotheexistenceof Israel.Thatwasa liepeddledby theArab dictators as they sought to deflect attention from their own brutality, and it was bought bymany people across the area and the dictators’ useful idiots in the West. Nevertheless, the

Israeli/Palestinianjointtragedycontinues,andsuchistheobsessionwiththistinypieceoflandthatitmayagaincometobeconsideredbysomethemostpressingconflictintheworld.

TheOttomanshadregardedtheareawestoftheJordanRivertotheMediterraneancoastasapartoftheregionofSyria.TheycalleditFilistina.AftertheFirstWorldWar,undertheBritishMandate,thisbecamePalestine.

FormillenniatheJewshad lived inwhatusedtobecalledIsrael,but theravagesofhistoryhaddispersed them across the globe. Israel remained for them the “promised land,” and Jerusalem, inparticular, was sacred ground. However, by 1948 Arab Muslims and Christians had been a clearmajorityinthelandformorethanathousandyears.

In the twentieth century, with the introduction of the Mandate for Palestine, the Jewishmovement to join their minority co-religionists grew, and, propelled by the pogroms in EasternEurope,moreandmoreJewsbegantosettlethere.TheBritishlookedfavorablyonthecreationofa“Jewishhomeland”inPalestineandallowedJewstomovethereandbuylandfromtheArabs.AftertheSecondWorldWarand theHolocaust, Jews tried toget toPalestine inevengreaternumbers.Tensions between Jews and non-Jews reached the boiling point, and an exhausted Britain handedover the problem to the United Nations in 1948, which voted to partition the region into twocountries.TheJewsagreed,theArabssaidno.Theoutcomewaswar,whichcreatedthefirstwaveofPalestinianrefugeesfleeingtheareaandJewishrefugeescominginfromacrosstheMiddleEast.

TheGolanHeights,theWestBank,andGazaremaincontestedterritoryfollowingtheSix-DayWarin1967.

Jordan occupied the West Bank region, including East Jerusalem. Egypt occupied Gaza,consideringittobeanextensionofitsterritory.NeitherwasmindedtogivethepeoplelivingtherecitizenshiporstatehoodasPalestinians,norwasthereanysignificantmovementbytheinhabitants

callingforthecreationofaPalestinianstate.SyriameanwhileconsideredthewholeareatobepartofgreaterSyriaandthepeoplelivingthereSyrians.

To this day Egypt, Syria, and Jordan are suspicious of Palestinian independence, and if IsraelvanishedandwerereplacedbyPalestine,allthreemightmakeclaimstopartsoftheterritory.Inthiscentury, however, there is a fierce sense of nationhood among the Palestinians, and any ArabdictatorshipseekingtotakeachunkoutofaPalestinianstateofwhatevershapeorsizewouldbemetwithmassiveopposition.ThePalestiniansareveryawarethatmostoftheArabcountries,towhichsomeofthemfledinthetwentiethcentury,refusetogivethemcitizenship;theyinsistthatthestatusoftheirchildrenandgrandchildrenremains“refugee,”andworktoensurethattheydonotintegrateintothecountry.

DuringtheSix-DayWarof1967,theIsraeliswoncontrolofallofJerusalem,theWestBank,andGaza.In2005,theyleftGaza,buthundredsofthousandsofsettlersremainintheWestBank.

IsraelregardsJerusalemas itseternal, indivisiblecapital.TheJewishreligionsaystherockuponwhichAbrahamprepared to sacrifice Isaac is there, and that it stands directly above theHoly ofHolies,KingSolomon’sTemple.ForthePalestinians, JerusalemhasareligiousresonancethatrunsdeepthroughouttheMuslimworld:thecityisregardedasthethirdmostholyplaceinIslambecausetheprophetMuhammadissaidtohaveascendedtoheavenfromthatsamerock,whichisonthesiteofwhat isnow the “FarthestMosque” (Al-Aqsa).Militarily, the city is of onlymoderate strategicgeographical importance—ithasno real industry to speakof,no river, andnoairport—but it isofoverwhelmingsignificance in cultural and religious terms: the ideological need for the place is ofmoreimportancethanitslocation.Controlof,andaccessto,Jerusalemisnotanissueuponwhichacompromisesolutioncanbeeasilyachieved.

Incomparison,theGazaStripwaseasierfortheIsraelistogiveup(althoughitwasstilldifficult).Whether the people living there have gained much by the Israeli departure, however, is open todebate.

TheGazaStripisbyfartheworse-offofthetwocurrentPalestinian“entities.”Itisonly25mileslongand7.5mileswide.Crammedintothisspaceare1.8millionpeople.Itisineffecta“citystate,”albeitahorriblyimpoverishedone.DuetotheconflictwithIsrael,itscitizensarepennedinonthreesidesbyasecuritybarriercreatedbyIsraelandEgyptandbytheseatotheirwest.TheycanbuildonlytowithinacertaindistanceoftheborderwithIsraelbecausetheIsraelisaretryingtolimittheabilityofrocketfirefromGazatoreachdeepintoIsrael.Thelastdecadehasseenanasymmetricarmsracegain pace, with militants in Gaza seeking rockets that can fire farther, and Israel developing itsantimissiledefensesystem.

Because of its urban density, Gaza makes good fighting ground for its defenders but it is anightmare for its civilians,whohave little or no shelter fromwar andno link to theWestBank,althoughthedistancebetweenthetwoisonlytwenty-fivemilesatitsnarrowestpoint.Untilapeacedealisagreedupon,thereisnowherefortheGazanstogo,andlittleforthemtodoinsidetheStrip.

TheWestBankisalmostseventimesthesizeofGazabutislandlocked.Muchofitcomprisesamountain ridge that runs north to south. From a military perspective, this gives an advantage towhoevercontrolsthehighgroundofthecoastalplainonthewesternsideoftheridgeandtheJordanRiftValleytoitseast.LeavingtoonesidetheideologyofJewishsettlers,whoclaimthebiblicalrighttoliveinwhattheycallJudeaandSamaria,fromamilitaryperspectivetheIsraeliviewisthatanon-Israeli force cannotbe allowed to control theseheights, asheavyweapons couldbe firedonto thecoastalplain,where70percentofIsrael’spopulationlives.Theplainalsoincludesitsmostimportant

roadsystems,manyof its successfulhigh-techcompanies, the internationalairport,andmostof itsheavyindustry.

Thisisonereasonforthedemandfor“security”bytheIsraelisideanditsinsistencethat,evenifthereisanindependentPalestinianstate,thatstatecannothaveanarmywithheavyweaponsontheridge,andthatIsraelmustalsomaintaincontroloftheborderwithJordan.BecauseIsraelissosmallithasnoreal“strategicdepth,”nowheretofallbacktoifitsdefensesarebreached,andsomilitarilyitconcentratesontryingtoensurethatnoonecangetnearit.Furthermore,thedistancefromtheWestBankbordertoTelAvivisapproximatelytenmilesatitsnarrowest;fromtheWestBankridge,anyhalf-decentmilitarycouldcutIsraelintwo.Likewise,inthecaseoftheWestBank,Israelpreventsanygroupfrombecomingpowerfulenoughtothreatenitsexistence.

Under current conditions, Israel faces threats to its security and to the lives of its citizens byterroristattacksandrocketfirefromitsimmediateneighbors,butnotathreattoitsveryexistence.Egypt,tothesouthwest,isnotathreat.Thereisapeacetreatythatcurrentlysuitsbothsides,andthepartiallydemilitarizedSinaiPeninsulaactsasabufferbetweenthem.Eastofthis,acrosstheRedSeaatAqabainJordan,thedesertalsoprotectsIsrael,asdoesitspeacetreatywithAmman.TothenorththereisapotentialmenacefromLebanonbutitisarelativelysmallone,intheformofcross-borderraidsand/orlimitedshelling.However,ifandwhenHezbollahinLebanonusetheirlargerandlonger-rangerocketstoreachdeepintoIsrael,theresponsewillbemassive.

The more serious potential threat comes from Lebanon’s bigger neighbor, Syria. Historically,Damascuswantsandneedsdirectaccesstothecoast.IthasalwaysregardedLebanonaspartofSyria(as indeed itwas) and remainsbitter about its troopshavingbeen forced to leave in2005. If thatroute to the sea is blocked, the alternative is to cross theGolanHeights anddescend to thehillyregionaroundtheSeaofGalileeenroutetotheMediterranean.ButtheHeightswereseizedbyIsraelafterSyriaattackeditinthe1973war,anditwouldtakeanenormousonslaughtbyaSyrianarmytobreakthrough to the coastal plain leading to themajor Israeli population centers.This cannot bediscountedatsomefuturepoint,butinthemediumtermitremainsextremelyunlikely,and—aslongastheSyriancivilwarcontinues—impossible.

That leaves the questionof Iran—amore serious consideration, as it raises the issue of nuclearweapons.

Iranisanon-Arabic,majorityFarsi-speakinggiant.ItisbiggerthanFrance,Germany,andtheUKcombined,butwhilethepopulationsofthosecountriesamountto200millionpeople,Iranhasonly78million.Withlimitedhabitablespace,mostliveinthemountains;thegreatdesertsandsaltplainsoftheinteriorofIranarenoplaceforhumanhabitation.Justdrivingthroughthemcansubduethehumanspirit,andlivinginthemisastrugglefewundertake.

TherearetwohugemountainrangesinIran:theZagrosandtheElburz.TheZagrosrunsfromthenorth, nine hundredmiles down along Iran’s borders with Turkey and Iraq, ending almost at theStraitofHormuzintheGulf.InthesouthernhalfoftherangethereisaplaintothewestwheretheShatt al-Arabdivides Iran and Iraq.This is alsowhere themajor Iranianoil fields are, theothersbeing in the north and center. Together they are thought to comprise the world’s third-largestreserves.Despitethis,Iranremainsrelativelypoorduetomismanagement,corruption,mountainoustopographythathinderstransportconnections,andeconomicsanctionsthathave,inpart,preventedcertainsectionsofindustryfrommodernizing.

TheElburzrangealsobeginsinthenorth,butalongtheborderwithArmenia.ItrunsthewholelengthoftheCaspianSea’ssouthshoreandontotheborderwithTurkmenistanbeforedescendingasit reachesAfghanistan.This is themountain rangeyoucansee fromthecapital,Tehran, towering

above the city to its north. It provides spectacular views, and also a better-kept secret than theIraniannuclearproject:theskiingconditionsareexcellentforseveralmonthseachyear.

Iran isdefendedby thisgeography,withmountainson three sides, swamplandandwateron thefourth.TheMongolswerethelastforcetomakeanyprogressthroughtheterritory,in1219–21,andsincethenattackershavegroundthemselvesintodusttryingtomakeheadwayacrossthemountains.BythetimeoftheSecondGulfWarin2003,eventheUnitedStates,thegreatestfightingforcetheworld has seen, thought better than to take a right turn once it had entered Iraq from the south,knowing that even with its superior firepower, Iran was not a country to invade. In fact, theUSmilitaryhadacatchphraseatthetime:“Wedodeserts,notmountains.”

In1980,whentheIran-IraqWarbrokeout,theIraqisusedsixdivisionstocrosstheShattal-ArabinanattempttoannextheIranianprovinceofKhuzestan.Theyneverevenmadeitofftheswamp-riddenplains,letaloneenteredthefoothillsoftheZagros.Thewardraggedonforeightyears,takingatleastamillionlives.

Themountainous terrainof Iranmeans that it isdifficult tocreatean interconnectedeconomyand that it has many minority groups each with keenly defined characteristics. Khuzestan, forexample,isethnicallymajorityArab,andelsewherethereareKurds,Azeri,Turkmen,andGeorgians,amongothers.Atmost,60percentofthecountryspeaksFarsi,thelanguageofthedominantPersianmajority.Asaresultof thisdiversity, Iranhastraditionallycentralizedpowerandused forceandafearsomeintelligencenetworktomaintaininternalstability.Tehranknowsthatnooneisabouttoinvade Iran, but also that hostile powers can use its minorities to try and stir dissent and thusendangeritsIslamicrevolution.

Iranalsohasanuclear industry thatmanycountries,particularly Israel,believe isbeingused toprepare fortheconstructionofnuclearweapons, increasingtensions intheregion.TheIsraelis feelthreatenedbytheprospectofIraniannuclearweapons.ItisnotjustIran’spotentialtorivaltheirownarsenalandwipeoutIsraelwithjustonebomb:ifIranweretogetthebomb,thentheArabcountrieswouldprobablypanic andattempt to get theirownaswell.TheSaudis, for example, fear that theayatollahswanttodominatetheregion,bringalltheShiaArabsundertheirguidance,andevenhavedesigns on controlling the holy cities ofMecca andMedina. A nuclear-armed Iran would be theregionalsuperpowerparexcellence,andtocounterthisdangertheSaudiswouldprobablytrytobuynuclearweaponsfromPakistan(withwhomtheyhavecloseties).EgyptandTurkeymightfollowsuit.

ThismeansthatthethreatofanIsraeliairstrikeonIran’snuclearfacilitiesisaconstantpresence,buttherearemanyrestrainingfactors.Oneisthat,inastraightline,it isonethousandmilesfromIsrael to Iran.The Israeli air forcewouldneed to cross two sovereignborders, thoseof JordanandIraq;thelatterwouldcertainlytellIranthattheattackwascoming.AnotheristhatanyotherrouterequiresrefuelingcapabilitiesthatmaybebeyondIsrael,andthat(ifflyingthenorthernroute)alsooverflysovereignterritory.AfinalreasonisthatIranholdswhatmightbeatrumpcard—theabilitytoclosetheStraitofHormuzintheGulfthroughwhichpasseseachday,dependingonsales,about20percent of theworld’s oil needs.At its narrowest point, the Strait, which is regarded as themoststrategic in theworld, is only twenty-onemiles across.The industrializedworld fears the effect ofHormuzbeingclosedpossibly formonthson end,with ensuing spiralingprices.This is one reasonwhysomanycountriespressureIsraelnottoact.

Inthe2000s,theIraniansfearedencirclementbytheAmericans.TheUSnavywasintheGulf,andAmericantroopswereinIraqandAfghanistan.Withthemilitarydrawdownsinbothcountries,Iranianfearshavenowfaded,andIranisleftinthedominantpositionwithadirectlinetoitsallies

inShia-dominatedIraq.ThesouthofIraqisalsoabridgeforIrantoitsAlawitealliesinDamascus,andthentoitsShiaalliesintheformofHezbollahinLebanonontheMediterraneancoast.

InthesixthtothefourthcenturiesBCEthePersianEmpirestretchedallthewayfromEgypttoIndia.Modern-dayIranhasnosuchimperialdesigns,butitdoesseektoexpanditsinfluence,andtheobviousdirection isacross the flatlands to itswest—theArabworldand itsShiaminorities. IthasmadegroundinIraqsincetheUSinvasiondeliveredaShia-majoritygovernment.ThishasalarmedSunni-dominatedSaudiArabiaandhelpedfueltheMiddleEast’sversionoftheColdWarwiththeSaudi–Iranian relationship at its core. SaudiArabiamaybe bigger than Iran, and itmaybemanytimesricher than Iran due to itswell-developed oil and gas industries, but its population ismuchsmaller(28millionSaudisasopposedto78millionIranians)andmilitarilyitisnotconfidentaboutitsabilitytotakeonitsPersianneighborifthiscoldwareverturnshotandtheirforcesconfronteachother directly. Each side has ambitions to be the dominant power in the region, and each regardsthemselvesasthechampionsoftheirrespectiveversionsofIslam.WhenIraqwasundertheheelofSaddam,apowerfulbufferseparatedSaudiArabiaandIran;withthatbuffergone,thetwocountriesnowglareateachotheracrosstheGulf.TheAmerican-leddealonIran’snuclearfacilitiesthatwasconcluded in the summerof2015has innoway reassured theGulfStates that the threat to themfromIranhasdiminished.WesternmediareportingconcentratedontheIsraelireactiontothedeal,buttheArabmediaacrosstheentireregionwaswhollyagainstit,withsomenewspaperscomparingitto theMunichAgreement of 1938.One leading Saudi columnist called for the kingdom to beginbuildingabombtobereadyforwhenIrandoesthesame.

NorthwestofIranisacountrythatisbothEuropeanandAsian.TurkeyliesonthebordersoftheArab lands but is notArabic, and althoughmost of its landmass is part of thewiderMiddle Eastregion,ittriestodistanceitselffromtheconflictstakingplacethere.

TheTurkshaveneverbeentrulyrecognizedaspartofEuropebytheirneighborstothenorthandnorthwest. If Turkey is European, then Europe’s borders are on the far side of the vastAnatolianPlain,meaningtheystopatSyria,Iraq,andIran.Thisisaconceptfewpeopleaccept.IfitisnotpartofEurope,thenwhereis it?Itsgreatestcity,Istanbul,wasthe2010EuropeanCapitalofCulture,itcompetesintheEurovisionSongContestandtheUEFAEuropeanChampionship,anditappliedformembership of what is now the EuropeanUnion in the 1970s; and yet, less than 5 percent of itsterritoryisinEurope.MostgeographersregardthesmallareaofTurkeythatiswestoftheBosporusasbeing inEurope, and the rest of the country, south and southeast of theBosporus, as being in theMiddleEast(initswidestsense).

That isone reasonwhy ithasneverbeenaccepted into theEU.Other factorsare its recordonhumanrights,especiallywhenitcomestotheKurds,anditseconomy.Itspopulationis75million,andEuropeancountriesfearthatgiventhedisparityinlivingstandards,EUmembershipwouldresultinamassinfluxoflabor.Whatmayalsobeafactor,albeitunspokenwithintheEU,isthatTurkeyisamajorityMuslimcountry(98percent).TheEUisneitherasecularnoraChristianorganization,butthere has been a difficult debate about “values.” For each argument for Turkey’s EU membershipthere is an argument against it, and in the past decade the prospects for Turkey joining havediminished.Thishasledthecountrytoreflectonwhatotherchoicestheremaybe.

Inthe1920s,foronemanatleast,therewasnochoice.HisnamewasMustafaKemalandhewastheonlyTurkishgeneraltoemergefromtheFirstWorldWarwithanenhancedreputation.AfterthevictoriouspowerscarvedupTurkey,herosetobecomepresidentonaplatformofresistingthetermsimposed by the Allies, but at the same time modernizing Turkey and making it part of Europe.Western legal codes and the Gregorian calendar were introduced and Islamic public institutions

banned.Thewearingofthefezwasforbidden,theLatinalphabetreplacedArabicscript,andheevengranted thevote towomen(twoyears aheadofSpainand fifteenyears aheadofFrance). In1934,whenTurksembracedlegallybindingsurnames,KemalwasgiventhenameAtatürk—“FatheroftheTurks.”Hediedin1938,butsubsequentTurkishleaderscontinuedworkingtobringTurkeyintotheWestEuropeanfold,andthosewhodidn’tfoundthemselvesonthewrongendofacoupsd’étatbyamilitarydeterminedtocompleteAtatürk’slegacy.

Bythelate1980s,however, thecontinuedrejectionbyEuropeandthestubbornrefusalofmanyordinaryTurkstobecomelessreligiousresultedinagenerationofpoliticianswhobegantothinktheunthinkable—thatperhapsTurkeyneededaplanB.PresidentTurgutÖzal,areligiousman,cametooffice in 1989 and began the change.He encouragedTurks to again seeTurkey as the great landbridgebetweenEurope,Asia,andtheMiddleEast,andacountrythatcouldagainbeagreatpowerinallthreeregions.Thecurrentpresident,RecepTayyipErdoğan,hassimilarambitions,perhapsevengreaterones,buthasfacedsimilarhurdlesinachievingthem.Theseareinpartgeographical.

Politically, theArab countries remain suspicious that Erdoğanwants to re-create theOttomanEmpire economically and they resist close ties. The Iranians see Turkey as their most powerfulmilitaryandeconomiccompetitorintheirownbackyard.Relations,neverwarm,havecooledduetotheirbeingonoppositesidesinsupportforfactionsinvolvedintheSyriancivilwar.Turkey’sstrongsupport for the Muslim Brotherhood government in Egypt was a policy that backfired when theEgyptianmilitary staged its secondcoupand tookpower.RelationsbetweenCairoandAnkaraarenowicy.

TheTurkishelitehavelearnedthatscoringIslamistpointsbypickingfightswithIsraelresultsinIsrael cooperatingwithCyprus andGreece to create a trilateral energy alliance to exploit the gasfieldsoff their respectivecoasts.TheEgyptiangovernment’sdimviewofTurkey is contributing toCairo’s interest in being amajor customer for this new energy source.Meanwhile, Turkey, whichcouldhavebenefited fromIsraelienergy,remains largelyreliantonitsold foeRussia for itsenergyneedswhile simultaneouslyworkingwithRussia to developnewpipelines to deliver energy toEUcountries.

TheAmericans, alarmed at the new cold war between Turkey and Israel, two of its allies, areworkingtobringthemtogetheragain.TheUnitedStateswantsabetterrelationshipbetweenthemsoas to strengthenNATO’sposition in theeasternMediterranean. InNATOterms,Turkey is akeycountrybecauseitcontrolstheentrancetoandexitfromtheBlackSeathroughthenarrowgapoftheBosporus Strait. If it closes the strait, which is less than amile across at its narrowest point, theRussianBlackSeaFleetcannotbreakoutintotheMediterraneanandthentheAtlantic.EvengettingthroughtheBosporustakesyouonlyintotheSeaofMarmara;youstillhavetonavigatethroughtheDardanellesStraittogettotheAegeanSeaenroutetotheMediterranean.

Givenitslandmass,Turkeyisnotoftenthoughtofasaseapower,butitbordersthreeseas,anditscontrol of these waters has always made it a force to be reckoned with; it is also a trade andtransportationbridge linkingEuropewith theMiddleEast, theCaucasus, andonup to thecentralAsiancountries,withwhichitshareshistoryand,insomeregions,ethnicties.

Turkeyisdeterminedtobeatthecrossroadsofhistoryevenifthetrafficcanattimesbehazardous.ThewebpageoftheTurkishForeignMinistryemphasizesthisinthesection“SynopsisoftheTurkishForeignPolicy”:“TheAfro-EurasiangeographywhereTurkey is situatedat theepicenter isanareawhere such opportunities and risks interact in the most intensive way.” It also says: “Turkey isdeterminedtobecomeafullmemberoftheEuropeanUnionaspartofitsbicentennialefforttoreachthehighestlevelofcontemporarycivilization.”

Thatlooksunlikelyintheshorttomediumterm.Untilafewyearsago,TurkeywasheldupasanexampleofhowaMiddleEasterncountry,otherthanIsrael,couldembracedemocracy.ThatexamplehastakenafewknocksrecentlywiththeongoingKurdishproblem,thedifficultiesfacingsomeofthetinyChristiancommunities,andthetacitsupportforIslamistgroupsintheirfightagainsttheSyriangovernment.PresidentErdoğan’sremarksonJews,race,andgenderequality,takenwiththecreepingIslamizationofTurkey,havesetalarmbellsringing.However,comparedwiththemajorityofArabstates,Turkeyisfarmoredevelopedandrecognizableasademocracy.ErdoğanmaybeundoingsomeofAtatürk’swork,butthegrandchildrenoftheFatheroftheTurkslivemorefreelythananyoneintheArabMiddleEast.

Because the Arab states have not experienced a similar opening-up and have suffered fromcolonialism, they were not ready to turn theArab uprisings (the wave of protests that started in2010)intoarealArabSpring.Instead,theysouredintoperpetualriotingandcivilwar.

TheArabSpring is amisnomer, invented by themedia; it clouds our understanding ofwhat ishappening. Too many reporters rushed to interview the young liberals who were standing in citysquares with placards written in English, and mistook them for the voice of the people and thedirectionofhistory.SomejournalistshaddonethesameduringtheGreenRevolution,describingtheyoungstudentsofnorthTehranasthe“YouthofIran,”thusignoringtheotheryoungIranianswhowerejoiningthereactionaryBasijmilitiaandRevolutionaryGuard.

In1989inEasternEuropetherewasoneformoftotalitarianism:Communism.Inthemajorityofpeople’smindstherewasonlyonedirectioninwhichtogo:towarddemocracy,whichwasthrivingontheothersideoftheIronCurtain.EastandWestsharedahistoricalmemoryofperiodsofdemocracyandcivilsociety.TheArabworldof2011enjoyednoneofthosethingsandfacedinmanydifferentdirections.Therewere,andare, thedirectionsofdemocracy, liberaldemocracy(whichdiffers fromtheformer),nationalism,thecultofthestrongleader,andthedirectioninwhichmanypeoplehadbeenfacingallalong—Islaminitsvariousguises,includingIslamism.

IntheMiddleEast,powerdoesindeedflowfromthebarrelofagun.SomegoodcitizensofMisratainLibyamaywanttodevelopaliberaldemocraticparty,somemightevenwanttocampaignforgayrights;buttheirchoicewillbelimitedifthelocaldefactopowershootsliberaldemocratsandgays.Iraq is a case in point: a democracy in name only, far from liberal, and a placewhere people areroutinelymurderedforbeinghomosexual.

ThesecondphaseoftheArabuprisingiswellintoitsstride.Thisisthecomplexinternalstrugglewithin societies where religious beliefs, socialmores, tribal links, and guns are currently farmorepowerfulforcesthan“Western”idealsofequality,freedomofexpression,anduniversalsuffrage.TheArabcountriesarebesetbyprejudices, indeedhatreds,ofwhichaverageWesternersknowso littlethattheytendnottobelievethemeveniftheyarelaidoutinprintbeforetheireyes.Weareawareofourownprejudices,whicharelegion,butoftenseemtoturnablindeyetothoseintheMiddleEast.

TheroutineexpressionofhatredforothersissocommonintheArabworldthatitbarelydrawscomment other than from the region’s oftenWestern-educated liberalminority who have limitedaccess to the platform of mass media. Anti-Semitic cartoons that echo the Nazi Der Stürmerpropagandanewspaperarecommon.Weekin,weekout,shock-jockimamsaregivenspaceonprime-timeTVshows.

Westernapologistsforthissortofbehavioraresometimeshamstrungbyafearofbeingdescribedas one of Edward Said’s “Orientalists.” They betray their own liberal values by denying theiruniversality.Others, in theirnaïveté, say that these incitements tomurderarenotwidespreadandmustbeseeninthecontextoftheArabiclanguage,whichcanbegiventoflightsofrhetoric.This

signalstheirlackofunderstandingofthe“Arabstreet,”theroleofthemainstreamArabmedia,andarefusaltounderstandthatwhenpeoplewhoarefullofhatredsaysomething,theymeanit.

WhenHosniMubarakwasoustedaspresidentofEgypt, itwasindeedpeoplepowerthattoppledhim,butwhattheoutsideworldfailedtoseewasthatthemilitaryhadbeenwaitingforyearsforanopportunitytoberidofhimandhissonGamal,andthatthetheaterofthestreetprovidedthecoverthey needed. It was only when the Muslim Brotherhood called its supporters out that there wasenoughcover.TherewereonlythreeinstitutionsinEgypt:Mubarak’sNationalDemocraticParty,themilitary, and theBrotherhood.The latter twodestroyed the former, theBrotherhood thenwonanelection,beganturningEgyptintoanIslamiststate,andpaidthepricebyitselfbeingoverthrownbytherealpowerintheland—themilitary.

The Islamists remain the second power, albeit now underground. When the anti-Mubarakdemonstrations were at their height, the gatherings in Cairo attracted several hundred thousandpeople. After Mubarak’s fall, when the radical Muslim Brotherhood preacher Yusuf al-QaradawireturnedfromexileinQatar,atleastamillionpeoplecameouttogreethim,butfewintheWesternmediacalledthisthe“voiceofthepeople.”Theliberalsneverhadachance.Nordotheynow.Thisisnotbecausethepeopleoftheregionareradical; it isbecauseifyouarehungryandfrightened,andyouareofferedeitherbreadandsecurityortheconceptofdemocracy,thechoiceisnotdifficult.

In impoverished societieswith few accountable institutions, power restswith gangs disguised as“militia”and“politicalparties.”Whiletheyfightforpower,sometimescheeredonbynaiveWesternsympathizers,manyinnocentpeopledie.ItlooksasifitwillbethatwayinLibya,Syria,Yemen,Iraq,andpossiblyothercountriesforyearstocome.

TheAmericansarekeentoscaledowntheirpoliticalandmilitaryinvestmentintheregionduetoa reduction in their energy-import requirements; if they dowithdraw, thenChina, and to a lesserextentIndia,mayhavetogetinvolvedinequalproportiontothe lossof interest.TheChinesearealreadymajorplayersinSaudiArabia,Iraq,andIran.Thatscenarioisonagloballevelandwillbedeterminedinthechancelleriesofthecapitalsofthegreatpowers.Onthegroundthegamewillbeplayedwithpeople’simaginations,wants,hopes,andneeds,andwiththeirlives.

Sykes-Picot is breaking; putting it back together, even in a different shape, will be a long andbloodyaffair.

7

INDIAANDPAKISTAN

Indiaisnotanation,noracountry.Itisasubcontinentofnationalities.—MuhammadAliJinnah

India andPakistan canagreeonone thing:neitherwants theotherone around.This is somewhatproblematic, given that they share a 1,900-mile-long border. Each country fairly bristles withantagonismandnuclearweapons,sohowtheymanagethisunwantedrelationshipisamatteroflifeanddeathonascaleoftensofmillions.

India has a population approaching 1.3 billion people, while Pakistan’s is 182 million.Impoverished,volatile, and splintering,Pakistanappears todefine itself by its opposition to India,whileIndia,despiteobsessingaboutPakistan,definesitselfinmanyways,includingthatofbeinganemergingworldpowerwith a growing economy and an expandingmiddle class. From this vantagepoint it looks across at Pakistan and sees how it outperforms it on almost all economic anddemocraticindicators.

Theyhavefoughtfourmajorwarsandmanyskirmishes.Emotionsrunhot.Anoft-quotedremarkbyaPakistaniofficerthatPakistanwouldmakeIndiableedbyathousandcutswasaddressedinlate2014bymilitaryanalystDr.AmarjitSinghwriting inthe IndianDefenceReview: “Whateverothersmay believe, my opinion is simply that it is better for India to brave a costly nuclear attack byPakistan,andgetitoverwithevenatthecostoftensofmillionsofdeaths,thansufferignominyandpaindayinanddayoutthroughathousandcutsandwastedenergyinunrealizedpotential.”Thatmaynotreflectofficialgovernmentpolicy,butitisanindicationofthedepthoffeelingatmanylevelsinbothsocieties.ModernPakistanandIndiawereborninfire;nexttimethefirecouldkillthem.

The two are tied together within the geography of the Indian subcontinent, which creates anatural frame.TheBay of Bengal, the IndianOcean, and theArabianSea are respectively to thesoutheast,south,andsouthwest,theHinduKushtothenorthwest,andtheHimalayastothenorth.Moving clockwise, the plateau of the Baluchistan Desert climbs steadily before becoming themountainsoftheNorth-WestFrontier,whichriseevenhighertobecometheHinduKush.Arightturneast connects to theKarakoramRange,which then leads to theHimalayas.They sweep rightalongtheborderwithChinaall thewaytoBurma.Fromthere,as IndiacurvesaroundBangladesh,theterraindescendssouthtotheBayofBengal.

Theinterioroftheframecontainswhataremodern-dayIndia,Pakistan,Bangladesh,Nepal,andBhutan. The latter two are impoverished landlocked nations dominated by their giant neighbors,ChinaandIndia.Bangladesh’sproblemisnotthatitlacksaccesstotheseabutthattheseahastoomuchaccesstoBangladesh:floodingfromthewatersoftheBayofBengalconstantlyafflictsthelow-lying territory. Itsothergeographicalproblemis that it isalmostentirely surroundedby India: the

2,545-mile-longfrontier,agreedtoin1974,wrappedIndiaaroundBangladesh,leavingitonlyashortborderwithBurmaasanalternativelandroutetotheoutsideworld.

BangladeshisvolatileandcontainsIslamistmilitantswhotroubleIndia,butnoneofthesethreesmallercountrieswithinthesubcontinentcaneverrisetothreatenitsundisputedmaster.NorwouldPakistanbeconsidereda threat to Indiahad itnotmastered the technologyofdevelopingnuclearweaponsinthedecadesfollowingthepartitionoftheregionin1947.

Theareawithinourframe,despitebeingrelativelyflat,hasalwaysbeentoolargeanddiverse tohave strong central rule. Even the British colonial overlords, with their famed bureaucracy andconnectingrailsystem,allowedregionalautonomyandindeedusedittoplaylocalleadersoffagainstoneanother.Thelinguisticandculturaldiversity ispartiallyduetothedifferences inclimate—forexample,thefreezingnorthoftheHimalayas incontrasttothejunglesofthesouth—but it isalsobecauseofthesubcontinent’sriversandreligions.

Variouscivilizationshavegrownupalongtheserivers,suchastheGanges,theBrahmaputra,andthe Indus. To this day the population centers are dotted along their banks, and the regions, sodifferentfromoneanother—forexamplethePunjab,withitsSikhmajority,andtheTamilspeakersofTamilNadu—arebasedonthesegeographicaldivides.

Different powers have invaded the subcontinent over the centuries, but none have ever trulyconquered it. Even now,NewDelhi does not truly control India and, as we shall see, to an evengreaterextentIslamabaddoesnotcontrolPakistan.TheMuslimshadthegreatestsuccessinunitingthesubcontinentunderoneleadership,butevenIslamneverovercamethelinguistic,religious,andculturaldifferences.

ThefirstMusliminvasionwasasearlyastheseventhcenturyCE,whentheArabsoftheUmayyadCaliphate made it as far as the Punjab in what is now Pakistan. From then until the eighteenthcenturyvariousforeigninvasionsbroughtIslamtothesubcontinent;however,eastoftheIndusRiverValleyamajorityoftheHindupopulationresistedconversion,thussowingtheseedsfortheeventualpartitionofIndia.

TheBritishcameandwent,andwhentheywentthecentercouldnothold,andthingsfellapart.Intruth,therewasnorealcenter,theregionhasalwaysbeendividedbytheancientdisparitiesofthelanguages of thePunjab andGujarat, themountains and thedeserts, and IslamandHinduism.By1947, the forces of postcolonial nationalism and religious separatism broke the subcontinent intotwo, and later three,major pieces: India, Pakistan, andBangladesh.TheBritish, exhausted by twoworldwars,andawarethatthedaysofempirewerecomingtoaclose,didnotcoverthemselves ingloryinthemanneroftheirleaving.

On June 3, 1947, the announcement was made in the House of Commons: the British wouldwithdraw—Indiawas tobepartitioned into the two independentdominionsof India andPakistan.Seventy-threedayslater,onAugust15,theywereallbutgone.

An extraordinarymovement of people followed asmillions ofMuslims fled the new borders ofIndia,headingwesttoPakistan,withmillionsofHindusandSikhscomingtheotherway.Columnsofpeoplethirtythousandstrongwereontheroadsaswholecommunitiesmoved.Trainspackedfullofrefugees crisscrossed the subcontinent,disgorgingpeople intocities andmaking the return journeyfilledwiththoseheadingintheotherdirection.

Itwascarnage.RiotsbrokeoutacrossbothcountriesasMuslims,Hindus,Sikhs,andothersturnedononeanother inpanicandfear.TheBritishgovernmentwasheditshandsandrefusedpleas fromthenewIndianandPakistanileadersforthefewtroopsstill inthecountrytohelpmaintainorder.Estimatesofthedeathtollvary,butatleastamillionpeoplediedand15millionweredisplaced.The

Muslim-majorityareasinthewest—theIndusValleyregionwestoftheTharDesertandtheGangesRiverbasin—becameWestPakistan,whilethosetotheeastofCalcuttabecameEastPakistan.

What didPakistan get out of this?Much less than India. It inherited India’smost troublesomeborder, theNorth-WestFrontierwithAfghanistan,and itwasa state split intotwononcontiguousregions with little to hold it together, as one thousand miles of Indian territory separated WestPakistanfromEastPakistan.AlaskaandtherestoftheUnitedStateshavemanagedtheproblemofnoncontiguous distancewithout difficulty, but they are culturally, linguistically, and economicallylinkedandoperatinginastableenvironment.TheonlyconnectionbetweenthetwopartsofPakistanwasIslam.Theyneverreallycametogether,soitwasnosurprisewhentheyweretornapart;in1971,East Pakistan rebelled against the dominance ofWest Pakistan, India intervened and, aftermuchbloodshed,EastPakistanseceded,becomingBangladesh.

However,back in1947, twenty-fiveyearsafter theendof theOttomanEmpire, Jinnahand theotherleadersofthenewPakistan,amidmuchfanfareandpromisesofabrightfuture,claimedtheyhadcreatedaunitedMuslimhomeland.

Pakistan is geographically, economically, demographically, andmilitarilyweaker than India. Itsnational identity is also not as strong. India, despite its size, cultural diversity, and secessionistmovements,hasbuiltasolidseculardemocracywithaunifiedsenseofIndianidentity.PakistanisanIslamic state with a history of dictatorship and populations whose loyalty is often more to theirculturalregionthantothestate.

SeculardemocracyhasservedIndiawell,butthe1947divisiondidgiveitaheadstart.WithinthenewbordersofIndiawasthevastmajorityofthesubcontinent’sindustry,mostofthetaxableincomebase,andthemajorityof themajorcities.Forexample,Calcutta,with itsportandbankingsector,went to India, thus depriving East Pakistan of thismajor income provider and connection to theoutsideworld.

Pakistan received just 17percent of the financial reserves thathadbeen controlledby thepre-partitiongovernment. Itwas leftwith an agricultural base, nomoney to spend on development, avolatilewesternfrontier,andastatedividedwithinitselfinmultipleways.

ThenamePakistangivesuscluesaboutthesedivisions;pakmeans“pure”andstanmeans“land”inUrdu,soitisthelandofthepure,butitisalsoanacronym.PisforPunjab,AisforAfghania(thePashtun area by the Afghan border), K for Kashmir, S for Sindh, and T stands for “tan,” as inBaluchistan.

From these fivedistinct regions, eachwith theirown language,one statewas formed,butnot anation. Pakistan tries hard to create a sense of unity, but it remains rare for a Punjabi tomarry aBaluchi, or a Sindh tomarry a Pashtun.The Punjabis comprise 60 percent of the population, theSindhs14percent, thePashtuns13.5percent, and theBaluchis 4.5percent.Religious tensions areever present—not only in the antagonism sometimes shown to the country’sChristian andHinduminorities,butalsobetweenthemajoritySunniandtheminorityShiaMuslims.InPakistanthereareseveralnationswithinonestate.

The regions that make up Pakistan all have their own distinct identities and languages, which often hinders a sense ofnationalunity.

Theofficial language isUrdu,which is themother tongueof theMuslimsof Indiawho fled in1947,mostofwhomsettledinPunjab.Thisdoesnotendearthelanguagetotherestofthecountry.TheSindhregionhaslongchafedatwhatitfeelstohavePunjabidominance,andmanySindhsthinkthey are treated as second-class citizens. The Pashtuns of the North-West Frontier have neveraccepted the rule of outsiders: parts of the frontier region are named the Federally AdministeredTribalAreas, but in reality they have never been administered from Islamabad. Kashmir remainsdividedbetweenPakistanand India,andalthoughamajorityofKashmiriswant independence, theone thing India and Pakistan can agree on is that they cannot have it. Baluchistan also has anindependencemovementthatperiodicallyrisesupagainstthestate.

Baluchistan is of crucial importance: while it may contain only a small minority of Pakistan’spopulation,withoutitthereisnoPakistan.Itcomprisesalmost45percentofthecountryandholdsmuchof itsnatural gas andmineralwealth.Another source of incomebeckonswith the proposedoverlandroutestobringIranianandCaspianSeaoilupthroughPakistantoChina.Thejewelinthisparticular crown is the coastal city of Gwadar. Many analysts believe this strategic asset was theSovietUnion’slong-termtargetwhenitinvadedAfghanistanin1979:GwadarwouldhavefulfilledMoscow’slong-helddreamofawarm-waterport.TheChinesehavealsobeenattractedbythisjewelandinvestedbillionsofdollarsintheregion.Adeep-waterportwasinauguratedin2007andthetwocountriesarenowworkingtolinkittoChina.Inthelongrun,ChinawouldliketousePakistanasalandrouteforitsenergyneeds.ThiswouldallowittobypasstheStraitofMalacca,whichaswesawinchaptertwoisachokepointthatcouldstrangleChineseeconomicgrowth.

MassiveChineseinvestmentinbuildingalandroutewouldmakePakistanveryhappy,andthisisoneof the reasonsPakistanwill always seek to crushany secessionistmovements that arise in theprovince.However,untilmoreof thewealthBaluchistancreates is returnedhomeandused for itsowndevelopment,theareaisdestinedtoremainrestiveandoccasionallyviolent.

Islam, cricket, the intelligence services, themilitary, and fear of India are what hold Pakistantogether. None of these will be enough to prevent it from being pulled apart if the forces ofseparatismgrowstronger.Ineffect,Pakistanhasbeeninastateofcivilwarformorethanadecade,followingperiodicandill-judgedwarswithitsgiantneighbor,India.

Thefirstwasin1947,shortlyafterpartition,andwasfoughtoverKashmir,whichin1948endedupdividedalong theLineofControl (alsoknownasAsia’sBerlinWall);however,both IndiaandPakistancontinuetoclaimsovereignty.

Nearly twenty years later,Pakistanmiscalculated the strengthof the IndianmilitarybecauseofIndia’spoorperformanceinthe1962India-Chinawar.TensionsbetweenIndiaandChinahadrisenduetotheChineseinvasionofTibet,whichinturnhadledIndiatogiverefugetotheDalaiLama.During thisbrief conflict theChinesemilitary showed their superiorityandpushed forwardalmostinto the stateofAssamnear the Indianheartland.ThePakistanmilitarywatchedwithglee, then,overestimatingtheirownprowess,wenttowarwithIndiain1965andlost.

In1984,PakistanandIndia foughtskirmishesatanaltitudeof twenty-twothousandfeetontheSiachenGlacier,thoughttobethehighestbattleinhistory.Morefightingbrokeoutin1985,1987,and1995.PakistancontinuedtotrainmilitantstoinfiltrateacrosstheLineofControlandanotherbattlebrokeoutoverKashmirin1999.Bythenbothcountrieswerearmedwithnuclearweapons,andforseveralweekstheunspokenthreatofanescalationtonuclearwarhoveredovertheconflictbeforeAmericandiplomacykickedinandthetwosidesweretalkeddown.Theycameclosetowaragainin2001,andgunfirestillbreaksoutsporadicallyalongtheborder.

Militarily, India and Pakistan are pitted against each other. Both sides say their posture isdefensive,butneitherbelievestheotherandsotheycontinuetoamasstroopsontheborder,lockedtogetherinapotentialdanceofdeath.

TherelationshipbetweenIndiaandPakistanwillneverbefriendly,butwereitnotforthethornofKashmirinbothsidesitcouldpotentiallybecordial.Asitis,IndiaiscontenttoseePakistandividedwithin itself andwillwork tomaintain that situation, and Pakistanwill seek to undermine India,with elements within the state even supporting terrorist attacks inside India such as theMumbaimassacreof2008.

TheKashmirissueispartiallyoneofnationalpride,butitisalsostrategic.FullcontrolofKashmirwould give India a window into central Asia and a border with Afghanistan. It would also denyPakistanaborderwithChinaandthusdiminishtheusefulnessofaChinese-Pakistani relationship.The Pakistani government likes to trumpet that its friendship with China is “taller than themountainsanddeeper than theoceans.”This isnot true,but it isuseful in sometimesmaking theAmericans nervous about cutting Pakistan off from the massive financial aid it receives fromWashington. China, well aware of this, is quite happy to chip away at American influence. It isalready Pakistan’s biggest military supplier, and in 2015 signed a multibillion-dollar deal withIslamabadtosellPakistaneightsubmarinesandsixpatrolships.

IfPakistanhadfullcontrolofKashmiritwouldstrengthenIslamabad’sforeignpolicyoptionsanddenyIndiaopportunities.ItwouldalsohelpPakistan’swatersecurity.TheIndusRiveroriginatesinHimalayanTibet,butpassesthroughtheIndian-controlledpartofKashmirbeforeenteringPakistanandthenrunningthelengthofthecountryandemptyingintotheArabianSeaatKarachi.

The Indus and its tributaries provide water to two-thirds of the country: without it the cottonindustryandmanyothermainstaysofPakistan’sstrugglingeconomywouldcollapse.Byatreatythathasbeenhonoredthroughalloftheirwars,IndiaandPakistanagreedtosharethewaters;butbothpopulations are growing at an alarming rate, and global warming could diminish the water flow.AnnexingallofKashmirwouldsecurePakistan’swatersupply.Giventhestakes,neithersidewillletgo; and until they agree on Kashmir the key to unlocking the hostility between them cannot befound. Kashmir looks destined to remain a place where a sporadic proxy war between Pakistani-trained fightersandtheIndianarmyisconducted—aconflict thatthreatenstospillover into full-scalewarwiththeinherentdangeroftheuseofnuclearweapons.

Both countries will also continue to fight another proxy war—in Afghanistan—especially nowthatmostNATOforceshaveleft.

Pakistanlacksinternal“strategicdepth”—somewheretofallbacktointheeventofbeingoverrunfrom the east—from India. The Pakistan-India border includes swampland in the south, the TharDesert,andthemountainsofthenorth;allareextremelydifficult territory foranarmytocross. Itcanbedone,andbothsideshavebattleplansofhowtofightthere.TheIndianarmyplaninvolvesblockadingtheportofKarachianditsfuelstoragedepotsbylandandsea,butaneasierinvasionrouteis between the south and the north—it lies in the center, in themore hospitable Punjab, and inPunjabisPakistan’scapital,Islamabad.

ThedistancefromtheIndianbordertoIslamabadislessthan250miles,mostofitflatground.Intheeventofamassive,overwhelming,conventionalattack,theIndianarmycouldbeinthecapitalwithinafewdays.Thattheyprofessnodesiretodosoisnotthepoint:fromPakistan’spointofviewtheymight,andthegeographicalpossibilityisenoughforPakistantorequireaplanAandaplanBtocountertherisk.

PlanAistohaltanIndianadvanceinthePunjabandpossiblycounterattackacrosstheborderandcutofftheIndianHighway1A,whichisavitalsupplyroutefortheIndianmilitary.TheIndianarmyismorethanonemillionstrong,twicethesizeofPakistan’s,butifitcan’tbesupplied,itcan’tfight.Plan B is to fall back across the Afghan border if necessary, and that requires a sympatheticgovernmentinKabul.Hence,geographyhasdictatedthatPakistanwillinvolveitselfinAfghanistan,aswillIndia.

Tothwarteachother,eachsideseekstomoldthegovernmentofAfghanistantoitsliking—or,toputitanotherway,eachsidewantsKabultobeanenemyofitsenemy.

When theSoviets invadedAfghanistan in 1979, India gave diplomatic support toMoscow, butPakistanwasquicktohelptheAmericansandSaudis toarm,train,andpay for themujahideentofighttheRedArmy.OncetheSovietswerebeaten,Pakistan’sintelligenceservice,theISI,helpedtocreate,andthenback,theAfghanTaliban,whichdulytookoverthecountry.

Pakistanhadanatural“in”withtheAfghanTaliban.MostarePashtun,thesameethnicityasthemajorityofthePakistanisoftheNorth-WestFrontier.TheyhaveneverthoughtofthemselvesastwopeoplesandconsidertheborderbetweenthemasaWesterninvention,whichinsomewaysitis.

ThemainethnicgroupsintheAfghan-Pakistaniareadidnotfitintotheborderthatwasimposedin1893bytheDurandLine;manyofthesegroupscontinuetoidentifymorewiththeirtribesbeyondthebordersthanwiththerestofthenation.

The Afghan-Pakistani border is known as the Durand Line. Sir Mortimer Durand, the foreignsecretary of the colonial government of India, drew it in 1893 and the then ruler ofAfghanistanagreedtoit.However,in1949,theAfghangovernment“annulled”theagreement,believingittobean artificial relic of the colonial era. Since then, Pakistan has tried to persuade Afghanistan tochangeitsmind,Afghanistanrefuses,andthePashtunsoneachsideofthemountainstrytocarryonastheyhaveforcenturiesbyignoringtheborderandmaintainingtheirancientconnections.

Central to this area, sometimes calledPashtunistan, is thePakistani city of Peshawar, a sort ofurban Taliban military-industrial complex. Knockoff Kalashnikovs, bomb-making technology, andfightersflowoutfromthecity,andsupportfromwithinsectionsofthestateflowsin.

ItisalsoastagingpostforISIofficersenroutetoAfghanistanwithfundsandinstructionsfortheTalibanesque groups across the border. Pakistan has been involved militarily in Afghanistan fordecadesnow,butithasoverreacheditself,andthetigeritwasridinghasbittenit.

In2001thePakistani-createdTalibanhadbeenhostingtheforeignfightersofal-Qaedaforseveralyears.Then,on9/11,al-QaedastrucktheUnitedStatesonitshomesoilinanoperationputtogetherinAfghanistan.Inresponse,USmilitarypowerrantheTalibanandal-Qaedaoutoftown.AfghanNorthern Alliance anti-Taliban forces moved down to take over the country and a NATOstabilizationforcefollowed.

Acrosstheborderonthedayafter9/11,theAmericanshadbegunbreathingdiplomaticfireonthePakistanis, demanding their participation in the “War onTerror” and an end to their support forterrorism.Thethensecretaryofstate,ColinPowell,hadphonedPresidentMusharrafanddemandedhecomeoutofameetingtotakethecall,inwhichhetoldhim:“Youareeitherwithusoragainstus.”

Ithasneverbeenconfirmedby theAmerican side,butMusharrafhaswritten that the callwasfollowedupbyPowell’sdeputy,RichardArmitage,ringingtheheadoftheISIandtellinghim“thatif

wechosetheterrorists,thenweshouldbepreparedtobebombedbacktotheStoneAge.”Pakistancooperated,andthatwasthat.Except—theyhadn’tfullycooperated,andthatwasn’tthat.

Islamabadwasforcedtoact,anddid;butnoteveryoneinthePakistanisystemwasonboard.Thegovernmentbannedseveralmilitantgroupsandtriedtoreininreligiousgroupsitdeemedextremist.By2004itwasinvolvedmilitarilyagainstgroupsintheNorth-WestFrontierandprivatelyacceptedtheAmericanpolicyofdronestrikesonitsterritorywhilepubliclydecryingthem.

Thesewere toughdecisions.ThePakistanmilitary and the ISIhad to turnon theveryTalibanleaderstheyhadtrainedandformedfriendshipswithinthe1990s.TheTalibangroupsreactedwithfury,seizingcompletecontrolofseveralregionsinthetribalareas.Musharrafwasthetargetofthreefailed assassination attempts, his would-be successor, Benazir Bhutto, wasmurdered, and amid thechaos of bombing campaigns andmilitary offensives, up to fifty thousand Pakistani civilians havebeenkilled.

TheAmerican-NATOoperation inAfghanistan, and thePakistanimeasures across the border,hadhelpedscatter theArab,Chechen,andother foreign fightersofal-Qaedatothecornersof theearth,wheretheirleadershipwashunteddownandkilled;buttheTalibanhadnowheretogo—theywereAfghansandPakistanis—and,astheytoldthesenewtechnologicallyadvancedforeigninvadersfromAmericaandEurope,“Youmayhavethewatches—butwehavethetime.”Theywouldwaitouttheforeignersnomatterwhatwasthrownatthem,andinthistheywouldbehelpedbyelementsinPakistan.

Withinacoupleofyearsitbecameclear:theTalibanhadnotbeendefeated;theyhadmeltedintowheretheycamefrom—thePashtunpopulation—andwerenowemergingagainattimesandplacesoftheirchoosing.

TheAmericans cameupwith a “hammer and anvil” strategy.Theywouldhammer theAfghanTalibanagainsttheanvilofthePakistanioperationontheothersideoftheborder.The“anvil”inthetribalareasturnedoutinsteadtobeaspongethatsoakedupwhateverwasthrownatit,includinganyAfghanTalibanretreatingfromtheAmericanhammer.

In 2006, the British decided they would stabilize Helmand Province in the south, where theAfghangovernment’sremitdidnotrunfaroutsideoftheprovincialcapital,LashkarGah.ThiswasAfghan Pashtun heartland territory. The British went in with good intentions; they knew theirhistory,butitseemstheyjustignoredit—thereasonwhyremainsamystery.ThethenBritishdefensesecretaryJohnReidiswronglyquoted,andblamed,forhavingsaidthatsummerthathe“hopednotashotwill be fired in anger.” In fact, he said, “We’re in the south to help and protect theAfghanpeopletoreconstructtheireconomyanddemocracy.Wewouldbeperfectlyhappytoleaveinthreeyears’timewithoutfiringoneshot.”

That may have been a fine aspiration, but was it ever feasible? That summer, after he gave abriefingattheForeignOfficeinLondon,Ihadanexchangewiththedefensesecretary,asfollows:

“Don’tworry,Tim.We’renotgoingaftertheTaliban,we’retheretoprotectpeople.”“Don’tworry,SecretaryofState,theTalibanaregoingtocomeafteryou.”

Itwasanamicableexchange,conductedbeforemorethan450Britishsoldiershadbeenkilled,butto this day I don’t know if the British government was softening up public opinion ahead of thedeployment of troops while privately predicting it would be tough going, or whether it was beinginexplicablynaiveaboutwhatlayahead.

SotheTalibanbledtheBritish,bledtheAmericans,bledNATO,waitedNATOout,andafterthirteenyearsNATOwentaway.

Duringthiswholeperiod,membersofthehighestlevelsofPakistan’sestablishmentwereplayingadoublegame.Americamighthaveitsstrategy,butPakistanknewwhattheTalibanknew:thatonedaytheAmericanswouldgoaway,andwhentheyleft,Pakistan’sforeignpolicywouldstillrequireaPakistan-friendlygovernmentinAfghanistan.FactionswithinthePakistanmilitaryandgovernmenthadcontinuedtogivehelptotheTaliban,gamblingthatafterNATO’sretreatthesouthernhalfofAfghanistan at the very leastwould revert toTaliban dominance, thus ensuring thatKabulwouldneedtotalktoIslamabad.

Pakistan’sperfidywas laidbarewhen theAmericanseventually foundal-Qaeda’s leader,OsamabinLaden,hidinginplainsightofthegovernmentinAbbottabad,amilitarygarrisontown.Bythatpoint, such was the Americans’ lack of trust in their Pakistani “allies” that they failed to tellIslamabadinadvanceabouttheSpecialForcesteamthatflewintokillbinLaden.Thiswasabreachof sovereignty that humiliated themilitary and government of Pakistan, as did the argument thatwent:“Ifyoudidn’tknowhewasthereyouwereincompetent,ifyoudidyouwerecomplicit.”

ThePakistanigovernmenthadalwaysdeniedplayingthedoublegamethatresultedinthedeathsofhugenumbersofAfghansandPakistanis,aswellasrelativelysmallnumbersofAmericans.Afterthe Abbottabad mission, Islamabad continued the denials, but now there were fewer people whobelievedthem.IfelementsofthePakistaniestablishmentwerepreparedtogivesuccortoAmerica’smostwantedman,eventhoughhewasbythenoflimitedvaluetothem,itwasobvioustheywouldsupportgroupsthat furtheredtheirambitionsto influenceevents inAfghanistan.TheproblemwasthatthosegroupsnowhadtheircounterpartsinPakistanandtheywantedtoinfluenceeventsthere.Thebiterwasbitten.

The Pakistani Taliban is a natural outgrowth of the Afghan version. Both are predominantlyPashtunandneitherwillacceptdominationfromanynon-Pashtunpower,beittheBritisharmyofthenineteenthcenturyorthePunjabi-dominatedPakistaniarmyofthetwenty-firstcentury.

Thiswas alwaysunderstoodandacceptedby Islamabad.ThePakistani government pretended itruledtheentirecountry,andthePashtunoftheNorth-WestFrontierpretendedtheywere loyaltothePakistanistate.ThisrelationshipworkeduntilSeptember11,2001.

The years since then have been exceptionally hard on Pakistan. The civilian death toll isenormousand foreign investmenthasdwindledaway,makingordinary life evenharder.The army,forcedtogoupagainstwhatwasadefactoally,haslostuptofivethousandmenandthecivilwarhasendangeredthefragileunityofthestate.

Thingsbecame sobad that thePakistanimilitary and government endeduphaving to give theUnited States military intelligence and coordinates allowing the United States to conduct dronestrikes against PakistaniTaliban targets in theNorth-West Frontier.At the same time,when thestrikesbecameapparent,IslamabadhadtopretendtocondemnthemanddescribethemasaviolationofPakistanisovereigntyduetothehundredsofciviliandeathsattributedtomistakesbytheUnitedStates.

Thedronesweremostly flownoutofabase inAfghanistan,but someare thought tohavebeenlaunched from a secret base inside Pakistan.Wherever they came from, therewere a lot of them.Drone strikes inAfghanistan andPakistanmassively increased during theObamapresidency fromthenumbersfiredduringGeorgeBush’stenure.

By the spring of 2015 things had got even tougher. NATO had left Afghanistan and theAmericans announced an end to combatmissions, leavingbehindonly a residual force.Officially,this istoconductSpecialForcesoperationsandtrainingmissions;unofficially it is totrytoensurethatKabuldoesnotfalltotheTaliban.WithoutNATOharryingtheTalibanontheAfghansideof

the border, Pakistan’s job of beating the Pakistani Taliban has become even harder. WashingtoncontinuestopressIslamabad,andthisleavesseveralpossiblescenarios:

•ThefullweightofthePakistanimilitaryfallsupontheNorth-WestFrontieranddefeatstheTaliban.•TheTalibancampaigncontinuestohastenthefracturingofPakistanuntilitbecomesafailedstate.• The Americans lose interest, the pressure on Islamabad relents, and the government compromises with the Taliban. The

situationreturnstonormal,withtheNorth-WestFrontierleftalonebutPakistancontinuingtopushitsagendainAfghanistan.

Ofthesescenariostheleastlikelyisthefirst.NoforeignforcehaseverdefeatedthetribesoftheNorth-West Frontier, and a Pakistani army containing Punjabis, Sindhis, Baluchis, andKashmiris(andsomePashtun)isconsideredaforeignforceonceitmovesintothetribalareas.

Scenariotwoispossiblebut,afterbeingdeaftoyearsofwake-upcalls,theTaliban’s2014massacreof132schoolchildreninPeshawardoesseemtohavejoltedenoughofthePakistaniestablishmenttomakeitrealizethatthemovementithelpedtocreatemightnowdestroyit.

Thismakesscenariothreethemostlikely.TheAmericanshavelimitedinterestinAfghanistansolongastheTalibanquietlypromisenottohostaninternationaljihadistgroupagain.ThePakistaniswillmaintainenoughlinkswiththeAfghanTalibstoensurethatgovernmentsinKabulwilllistentoIslamabadandnotcozyuptoIndia,andoncethepressureisofftheycandoadealwiththePakistaniTaliban.

Noneof thiswouldhavebeennecessary if theAfghanTaliban, inpartcreatedby thePakistaniISI,hadnotbeenstupidenoughtohosttheArabsofbinLaden’sal-Qaedaandthenafter9/11hadnotfallenbackuponthePashtuncultureofhonoringguests,thusrefusingtogivethemupwhentheAmericanscamecalling.

AsforIndia,itcanmultitask—indeedithasto,giventhatithasmoretothinkaboutthanonlyPakistan,evenifitisthenumber-oneforeignpolicypriorityforNewDelhi.Havingahostilenuclear-armedstatenextdoorisboundtofocusthemind,butIndiaalsohastoconcentrateonmanaging1.3billionpeoplewhilesimultaneouslyemergingasapotentialworldpower.

ItsrelationshipwithChinawoulddominateitsforeignpolicybutforonething—theHimalayas.Without theworld’s tallestmountain range between them,what is a lukewarm relationshipwouldprobablybefrosty.Aglanceatthemapindicatestwohugecountriescheekbyjowl,butacloserlookshowstheyarewalledofffromeachotheralongwhattheCIA’sWorldFactbooklistsas1,652milesofborder.

There are issues that cause friction, chief among them Tibet, the highest region on earth. Aspreviouslydiscussed,ChinawantedTibet,bothtopreventIndiafromhavingit,and—almostasbadinBeijing’sview—topreventanindependentTibetallowingIndiatobasemilitaryforcesthere,thusgivingthemthecommandingheights.

India’sresponsetotheChineseannexationofTibetwastogiveahometotheDalaiLamaandtheTibetan independencemovement inDharamsala in the stateofHimachalPradesh.This is a long-terminsurancepolicy,paidforbyIndiabutwithouttheexpectationthatitwilleverbecashedin.Asthings stand,Tibetan independence looks impossible; but if the impossiblewere to occur, even inseveraldecades’time,IndiawouldbeinapositiontoremindaTibetangovernmentwhotheirfriendswereduringtheyearsofexile.

The Chinese understand that this scenario is extremely unlikely, but remain irritated byDharamsala.TheirresponseisseeninNepal,whereBeijingensuresithasinfluencewiththeMaoistmovementthere.

IndiadoesnotwanttoseeaMaoist-dominatedNepalultimatelycontrolledbyChina,butknowsthatBeijing’smoneyandtradeisbuyinginfluencethere.ChinamaycarelittleforMaoismthesedays;itcaresenoughaboutTibet to signal to India that it, too,canafford thepaymentsona long-terminsurance policy.Any “interference” inTibet can bemetwith “interference” inNepal.ThemoreIndia has to concentrate on the smaller states in its neighborhood, the less it can concentrate onChina.

AnotherissuebetweenthemisthenortheasternIndianstateofArunachalPradesh,whichChinaclaimsas“southTibet.”AsChina’sconfidencegrows,sodoestheamountofterritorythereitsaysisChinese. Until recently, China claimed only the Tawang area in the extreme west of the state.However,intheearly2000s,BeijingdecidedthatallofArunachalPradeshwasChinese,whichwasnewstotheIndians,whohaveexercizedsovereigntyoveritsince1955.TheChineseclaimispartlygeographicalandpartlypsychological.ArunachalPradeshbordersChina,Bhutan,andBurma,makingitstrategicallyuseful,buttheissueisalsovaluabletoChinaasaremindertoTibetthatindependenceisanonstarter.

That is a message India also has to send periodically to several of its own regions. There arenumerousseparatistmovements,somemoreactivethanothers,somedormant,butnonethatlooksettoachievetheiraims.Forexample,theSikhmovementtocreateastateforSikhsfrompartofbothIndianandPakistaniPunjabhasforthemomentgonequiet,butitcouldflareupagain.ThestateofAssamhasseveralcompetingmovements,includingtheBodo-speakingpeoples,whowantastateforthemselves,andtheMuslimUnitedLiberationTigersofAssam,whowantaseparatecountrycreatedwithinAssamforMuslims.

ThereisevenamovementtocreateanindependentChristianstateinNagaland,where75percentofthepopulationisBaptist;however,theprospectoftheNagaNationalCouncilachievingitsaimsisasremoteasthelanditseekstocontrol,andthatlookstobetrueofalloftheseparatistmovements.

Despitetheseandothergroupsseekingindependence,withaSikhpopulationof21millionpeopleandaMuslimminorityof150million,Indiaretainsastrongsenseofitselfandunitywithindiversity.Thiswillhelpasitemergesfurtherontotheworldstage.

TheworldhassomarveledatChina’sstunningrisetopowerthatitsneighborisoftenoverlooked,but Indiamay yet rivalChina as an economic powerhouse this century. It is theworld’s seventh-largest country,with the second-largest population. It has borderswith six countries (seven if youinclude Afghanistan). It has nine thousand miles of internal navigable waterways, reliable watersupplies,andhugeareasofarableland;isamajorcoalproducer;hasusefulquantitiesofoilandgas,evenif itwillalwaysbeanimporterofallthree;anditssubsidizationof fuelandheatingcosts isadrainonitsfinances.

Despite its natural riches, India has not matched China’s growth, and because China is nowmovingoutintotheworld,thetwocountriesmaybumpupagainsteachother—notalongtheirlandborder,butatsea.

Forthousandsofyearstheregionsofwhatarenowmodern-dayChinaandIndiacouldignoreeachother because of their terrain. Expansion into each other’s territory through the Himalayas wasimpossibleand,besides,eachhadmorethanenougharableland.

Now, though, the riseof technologymeanseachrequiresvastamountsofenergy;geographyhasnotbequeathedthemsuchriches,andsobothcountrieshavebeen forcedtoexpandtheirhorizonsandventureoutintotheoceans,anditistherethattheyhaveencounteredeachother.

Twenty-fiveyearsago,Indiaembarkedona“lookeast”policy,partiallyasablocktowhatitcouldseewouldbetheimminentriseofChina.Ithas“takencareofbusiness”bydramaticallyincreasing

tradewithChina(mostlyimports)whilesimultaneouslyforgingstrategicrelationshipsinwhatChinaregardsasitsownbackyard.

IndiahasstrengtheneditstieswithBurma,thePhilippines,andThailand,butmoreimportant,itisworkingwithVietnamandJapantocheckChina’sincreasingdominationoftheSouthChinaSea.

Inthisithasanewally,albeitoneitkeepsatarm’slength—theUnitedStates.Fordecades,IndiawassuspiciousthattheAmericanswerethenewBritish,butwithadifferentaccentandmoremoney.In the twenty-first century amore confident India, in an increasinglymultipolarworld, has foundreason to cooperate with the United States. When President Obama attended the 2015 IndianRepublicDaymilitary parade,NewDelhi took care to show off its shiny newUS-suppliedC-130HerculesandC-17GlobemastertransportaircraftaswellasitsRussian-suppliedtanks.Thetwogiantdemocraciesareslowlymovingclosertogether.

Indiahasa large,well-equippedmodernnavythat includesanaircraftcarrier,but itwillnotbeabletocompetewiththemassiveblue-waternavythatChinaisplanning.Instead,Indiaisaligningitselfwithotherinterestedpartiessotogethertheycanatleastshadow,ifnotdominate,theChinesenavyasitsailstheChinaseas,throughtheStraitofMalacca,pasttheBayofBengal,andaroundthetipofIndiaintotheArabianSeatowardthefriendlyportChinahasbuiltatGwadarinPakistan.

WithIndia,italwayscomesbacktoPakistan,andwithPakistan,toIndia.

8

KOREAANDJAPAN

I...begantophrasealittlepunaboutKimJong-ilbeingthe“OhDearLeader,”butitdiedonmylips.—ChristopherHitchens,Love,PovertyandWar:JourneysandEssays

HowdoyousolveaproblemlikeKorea?Youdon’t,youjustmanageit—afterall,there’salotofotherstuffgoingonaroundtheworldthatneedsimmediateattention.

ThewholeoftheregionfromMalaysiauptotheRussianportofVladivostokeyestheNorth/SouthKorea problem nervously. All the neighbors know it has the potential to blow up in their faces,dragginginothercountriesanddamagingtheireconomies.TheChinesedon’twanttofightonbehalfofNorthKorea,butnordotheywantaunitedKoreacontainingAmericanbasesclosetotheirborder.TheAmericansdon’treallywanttofightfortheSouthKoreans,butnorcantheyaffordtobeseenasgivinguponafriend.TheJapanese,withtheirlonghistoryofinvolvementintheKoreanPeninsula,mustbeseentotreadlightly,knowingthatwhateverhappenswillprobablyinvolvethem.

Thesolutioniscompromise,butthereislimitedappetiteforthatinSouthKorea,andnoneatalldisplayedbytheleadershipoftheNorth.Thewayforwardisnotatallclear;itseemsasifitisalwaysjustoutofsightoverthehorizon.

For several years, theUnitedStates andCubahavedancedquietly aroundeachother,droppinghints that they would like to tango without tangling, leading to the partial breakthrough towardreestablishingdiplomatic relations in2015.NorthKorea,ontheotherhand,glaresatany requestsfromwould-besuitorstotakethefloor,occasionallypullingfaces.

NorthKoreaisapoverty-strickencountryofanestimated25millionpeople,ledbyabasketcaseofamorallycorrupt,bankruptCommunistmonarchy,andsupportedbyChina,partlyoutofafearofmillionsofrefugeesfloodingnorthacrosstheYaluRiver.TheUnitedStates,anxiousthatamilitarywithdrawalwouldsendoutthewrongsignalandemboldenNorthKoreanadventurism,continuestostation almost thirty thousand troops in South Korea, and the South, with mixed feelings aboutriskingitsprosperity,continuestodolittletoadvancereunification.

AlltheactorsinthisEastAsiandramaknowthatiftheytrytoforceananswertothequestionatthewrongtime,theyriskmakingthingsworse.Alotworse.It isnotunreasonable to fear thatyouwould end up with two capital cities in smoking ruins, a civil war, a humanitarian catastrophe,missileslandinginandaroundTokyo,andanotherChinese-Americanmilitaryface-offonadividedpeninsula in which one side has nuclear weapons. If North Korea implodes, it might well alsoexplode, projecting instability across the borders in the form of war, terrorism, and/or a flood ofrefugees,andsotheactorsarestuck,leavingthesolutiontothenextgenerationofleaders,andthenthenextone.

IfworldleadersevenspeakopenlyaboutpreparingforthedaywhenNorthKoreacollapses,theyriskhasteningthatday;andasnoonehasplannedforit—bestkeepquiet.Catch-22.

North Korea continues to play the crazed, powerful weakling to good effect. Its foreign policyconsists,essentially,ofbeingsuspiciousofeveryoneexcepttheChinese,andevenBeijingisnottobefullytrusteddespitesupplying84.12percentofNorthKorea’simportsandbuying84.48percentofitsexports,accordingto2014figuresbytheObservatoryofEconomicComplexity.NorthKoreaputsalotofeffortintoplayingalloutsidersagainstoneanother,includingtheChinese,inordertoblockaunitedfrontagainstit.

Toitscaptivepopulationitsaysitisastrong,munificent,magnificentstatestandingupagainstallthe odds and against the evil foreigners, calling itself the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea(DPRK). It has a unique political philosophy of Juche, which blends fierce nationalism withCommunismandnationalself-reliance.

Inreality,itistheleastdemocraticstateintheworld:itisnotrunforthepeopleanditisnotarepublic. It is a dynasty shared by one family and one party. It also checks off every box in thedictatorship test: arbitrary arrest, torture, show trials, internment camps, censorship, rule of fear,corruption, anda litanyofhorrorsona scalewithoutparallel in the twenty-first century.Satelliteimagesandwitnesstestimonysuggestthatatleast150,000politicalprisonersareheldingiantworkand“reeducation”camps.NorthKoreaisastainontheworld’sconscience,andyetfewpeopleknowthefullscaleofthehorrorstakingplacethere.

Newsstoriesaboutpurgedmembersoftheelitebeingexecutedwithananti-aircraftgun,orfedtoapackofstarvingdogs,haveneverbeenconfirmed.However,trueornot,thereislittledoubtaboutthelitanyofhorrorsperpetratedbythedictatorshipuponthepeople.Totalstatecontrolhasresultedinbeatings,torture,prisoncamps,andextrajudicialmurder.

Suchistheself-imposedisolationofthecountry,andthestate’salmosttotalcontrolofknowledge,that we can only guess at what the peoplemay feel about their country, system, and leaders andwhethertheysupporttheregime.Analyzingwhatisgoingonpolitically,andwhy,isakintolookingthroughanopaquewindowwhilewearing sunglasses.A formerambassador toPyongyangonce toldme:“It’slikeyouareononesideoftheglass,andyoutrytoprizeitopen,butthere’snothingtogetagripontopeerinside.”

ThefoundingstoryofKoreaisthatitwascreatedin2333BCEbyheavenlydesign.TheLordofHeaven sent his son Hwanung down to earth, where he descended to the Paektu Mountain andmarried a woman who used to be a bear, and their son, Dangun, went on to engage in an earlyexampleofnationbuilding.

Theearliestrecordedversionofthiscreationlegenddatesfromthethirteenthcentury.ItmayinsomewaysexplainwhyaCommuniststatehasaleadershipthatispasseddownthroughonefamilyand given divine status. For example, Kim Jong-il was described by the Pyongyang propagandamachineas“DearLeader,whoisaperfectincarnationoftheappearancethataleadershouldhave,”“GuidingSunRay,”“ShiningStarofPaektuMountain,”“WorldLeaderofthetwenty-firstcentury,”and“GreatManwhodescended fromheaven,”aswellas “EternalBosomofHotLove.”His fatherhadverysimilartitles,asdoeshisson,KimJong-Un.

Howdoes thegeneralpopulation feelabout suchstatements?Eventheexpertsare leftguessing.WhenyoulookatfootageofthemasshysteriaofNorthKoreansmourningKimJong-il,whodiedin2011, it’s interesting tonote that after the first few rowsof sobbing, shriekingpeople, the levelofgriefappearstodiminish.Isthisbecausethoseatthefrontknowthecameraisonthemandthusfortheirownsafetytheymustdowhatisrequired?Orhavethepartyfaithfulbeenputatthefront?Oraretheyordinarypeoplewhoaregenuinelygrief-stricken,aNorthKoreanmagnificationofthesortofemotionaloutburstswesawintheUKafterthedeathofPrincessDiana?

Nevertheless, theDPRK is still pullingoff the crazy-dangerous,weak-dangerous act. It’s quite atrick,anditsrootsliepartiallyinKorea’slocationandhistory,trappedasitisbetweenthegiantsofChinaandJapan.

ThenametheHermitKingdomwasearnedbyKoreaintheeighteenthcenturyafteritattemptedto isolate itself following centuries of being a target for domination, occupation, and plunder, oroccasionallysimplyarouteonthewaytosomewhereelse.Ifyoucomefromthenorth,thenonceyouareovertheYaluRivertherearefewmajornaturaldefensivelinesallthewaydowntothesea,andifyoucanlandfromthesea,thereverseistrue.TheMongolscameandwent,asdidtheChineseMingdynasty,theManchurians,andtheJapaneseseveraltimes.Soforawhilethecountrypreferrednottoengagewiththeoutsideworld,cuttingmanyofitstradelinksinthehopethatitwouldbeleftalone.

Itwasnotsuccessful.InthetwentiethcenturytheJapanesewereback,annexingthewholecountryin 1910, and later set about destroying its culture. The Korean language was banned, as was theteaching of Korean history, and worship at Shinto shrines became compulsory. The decades ofrepressionhaveleftalegacythateventodayimpactsonrelationsbetweenJapanandboththeKoreanstates.

The defeat of Japan in 1945 left Korea divided along the 38th parallel. North of it was aCommunistregimeoverseenfirstbytheSovietsandlaterbyCommunistChina,southofthelinewasapro-AmericandictatorshipcalledtheRepublicofKorea(ROK).ThiswastheverybeginningoftheColdWarera,wheneveryinchoflandwascontested,witheachsidelookingtoestablishinfluenceorcontrolaroundtheworld,unwillingtolettheothermaintainasolepresence.

The choice of the 38th parallel as the line of division was unfortunate in many ways and,according to historianDonOberdorfer, arbitrary.He says thatWashingtonwas so focused on theJapanese surrenderonAugust10 that ithadno real strategy forKorea.WithSoviet troopson themoveinthenorthofthepeninsulaandtheWhiteHouseconveninganall-nightemergencymeeting,twojuniorofficers,armedonlywithaNationalGeographicmap,chosethe38thparallelasaplacetosuggesttotheSovietstheyhalt,onthegroundsthatitwashalfwaydownthecountry.

NoKoreanswerepresent,noranyKoreaexperts.Iftheyhadbeen,theycouldhavetoldPresidentTrumanandhissecretaryofstateJamesByrnesthatthelinewasthesameonethattheRussiansandJapanesehaddiscussed for spheresof influencehalf acenturyearlier, following theRusso-JapaneseWarof1904–5.Moscow,notknowingthattheAmericansweremakinguppolicyonthefly,couldbeforgiven for thinking this was the United States’s de facto recognition of that suggestion andthereforeacceptanceofdivisionandaCommunistnorth.Thedealwasdone,thenationdivided,andthediecast.

TheSovietspulledtheirtroopsoutofthenorthin1948andtheAmericansfollowedsuitinthesouthin1949.InJune1950,anemboldenedNorthKoreanmilitaryfatallyunderestimatedAmerica’sColdWargeopoliticalstrategyandcrossedthe38thparallel,intentonreunitingthepeninsulaunderoneCommunistgovernment.TheNorthernforcesraceddownthecountryalmosttothetipofthesoutherncoast,soundingthealarmbellsinWashington.

TheNorthKoreanleadership,anditsChinesebackers,hadcorrectlyworkedoutthat,inastrictlymilitarysense,KoreawasnotvitaltotheUnitedStates;butwhattheyfailedtounderstandwasthattheAmericansknewthatiftheydidn’tstandupfortheirSouthKoreanally,theirotheralliesaroundtheworldwouldloseconfidenceinthem.IfAmerica’sallies,attheheightoftheColdWar,begantohedgetheirbetsorgoovertotheCommunistside,thenitsentireglobalstrategywouldbeintrouble.There are parallels herewith theUnited States’s policy inmodern EastAsia and Eastern Europe.

Countries such as Poland, the Baltic States, Japan, and the Philippines need to be confident thatAmericahastheirbackwhenitcomestotheirrelationswithRussiaandChina.

InSeptember1950,theUnitedStates,leadingaUnitedNationsforce,surgedintoKorea,pushingtheNorthern troops back across the 38th parallel and then up almost to the Yalu River and theborderwithChina.

NowitwasBeijing’sturntomakeadecision.ItwasonethingtohaveUSforcesonthepeninsula,quiteanotherwhentheywerenorthoftheparallel—indeednorthofthemountainsaboveHamhung—andwithinstrikingdistanceofChinaitself.ChinesetroopspouredacrosstheYalu,andthirty-sixmonths of fierce fighting ensuedwithmassive causalities on all sides before they ground to ahaltalongthecurrentborderandagreedtoatruce,butnotatreaty.Theretheywere,stuckonthe38thparallel,andstucktheyremain.

The geography of the peninsula is fairly uncomplicated and a reminder of how artificial thedivision isbetweenNorthandSouth.The real (broad-brush) split iswest to east.Thewestof thepeninsula ismuch flatter than the east and iswhere themajority of people live.The easthas theHamgyong mountain range in the north and lower ranges in the south. The demilitarized zone(DMZ),whichcutsthepeninsulainhalf,inpartsfollowsthepathoftheImjin/HanRiver,butthiswasneveranaturalbarrierbetweentwoentities,justariverwithinaunifiedgeographicalspacealltoofrequentlyenteredbyforeigners.

ThetwoKoreasare still technicallyatwar,andgiventhehair-trigger tensionsbetween them,amajorconflictisnevermorethanafewartilleryroundsaway.

Japan, theUnitedStates, andSouthKorea allworry aboutNorthKorea’s nuclearweapons, butSouthKorea in particularhas another threathanging over it.NorthKorea’s ability to successfullyminiaturizeitsnucleartechnologyandcreatewarheadsthatcouldbelaunchedisuncertain,butitisdefinitelycapable,asitalreadyshowedin1950,ofasurprise,first-strike,conventionalattack.

Amajorconcern forSouthKorea ishowcloseSeouland thesurroundingurbanareasare to theborderwithNorthKorea.Seoul’spositionmakes it vulnerable to surpriseattacks from itsneighbor,whosecapital ismuch fartherawayandpartiallyprotectedbymountainousterrain.

SouthKorea’scapital,themegacityofSeoul,liesjustthirty-fivemilessouthofthe38thparallelandtheDMZ.AlmosthalfofSouthKorea’s50millionpeopleliveinthegreaterSeoulregion,whichis home tomuch of its industry and financial centers, and it is all within range ofNorthKoreanartillery.

In the hills above the 148-mile-long DMZ, the North Korean military has an estimated tenthousandartillerypieces.Theyarewelldugin,someinfortifiedbunkersandcaves.NotallofthemcouldreachthecenterofSeoul,butsomecould,andallareabletoreachthegreaterSeoulregion.There’slittledoubtthatwithintwoorthreedaysthecombinedmightoftheSouthKoreanandUSairforceswouldhavedestroyedmanyofthem,butbythattimeSeoulwouldbeinflames.Imaginetheeffectofjustonesalvoofshellsfromtenthousandartilleryweaponslandinginurbanandsemi-urbanareas,thenmultiplyitdozensoftimes.

Two experts onNorth Korea, VictorCha andDavid Kang, writing forForeign Policy magazine,estimatedthattheDPRKforcescouldfireuptofivehundredthousandroundstowardthecityinthefirsthourofaconflict.Thatseemsaveryhighestimate,butevenifyoudivideitbyfivetheresultswouldstillbedevastating.TheSouthKoreangovernmentwouldfinditselffightingamajorwarwhilesimultaneously trying tomanage the chaos ofmillions of people fleeing south, even as it tried toreinforcetheborderwithtroopsstationedbelowthecapital.

ThehillsabovetheDMZarenothighandthereisalotofflatgroundbetweenthemandSeoul.Ina surprise attack, theNorthKoreanarmycouldpush forwardquitequickly, aidedby special forceswhowould enterviaunderground tunnels that theSouthKoreansbelievehave alreadybeenbuilt.NorthKorea’sbattleplans are thought to include submarines landing shock troops southofSeoul,and toactivate sleepercellsplaced in theSouth’spopulation. It is estimated tohaveonehundredthousandpersonnelitregardsasSpecialForces.

TheNorthhasalsoalreadyproveditcanreachTokyowithballisticmissilesby firingseveralofthem over the Sea of Japan and into the Pacific, a route that takes them directly over Japaneseterritory.Itsarmedforcesaremorethanamillionstrong,oneofthebiggestarmiesintheworld,andevenif largenumbersof themarenothighlytrainedtheywouldbeuseful toPyongyangascannonfodderwhileitsoughttowidentheconflict.

TheAmericanswouldbefightingalongsidetheSouth,theChinesemilitarywouldbeonfullalertandapproachingtheYalu,andtheRussiansandJapanesewouldbelookingonnervously.

It isnot inanyone’s interest for there tobeanothermajorwar inKorea,asbothsideswouldbedevastated,butthathasnotpreventedwarsinthepast.In1950,whenNorthKoreacrossedthe38thparallel,ithadnotforeseenathree-yearwarwithuptofourmilliondeaths,endinginastalemate.Afull-scaleconflictnowmightbeevenmorecatastrophic.TheROK’seconomyiseightytimesstrongerthan theNorth’s, its population is twice the size, and the combinedSouthKorean andUS armedforceswouldalmostcertainlyoverwhelmNorthKoreaeventually,assumingChinadidnotdecidetojoininagain.

And thenwhat?Therehas been limited serious planning for such an eventuality.TheSouth isthought to have done some computer modeling on what might be required, but it is generallyacceptedthatthesituationwouldbechaotic.TheproblemsthatwouldbecreatedbyKoreaimplodingor exploding would be multiplied if it happened as a result of warfare. Many countries would beaffectedandtheywouldhavedecisionstomake.EvenifChinadidnotwanttointerveneduringthefighting, itmightdecide ithad to cross theborder and secure theNorth to retain thebuffer zonebetweenitandtheUSforces.ItmightdecidethataunifiedKorea,alliedtotheUnitedStates,whichisalliedtoJapan,wouldbetoomuchofapotentialthreattoallow.

TheUnitedStateswouldhavetodecidehowfaracrosstheDMZitwouldpushandwhetheritshouldseek to secureallofNorthKorea’s sites containingnuclearandotherweaponsofmassdestructionmatériel. China would have similar concerns, especially as some of the nuclear facilities are onlythirty-fivemilesfromitsborder.

Onthepoliticalfront,Japanwouldhavetodecideifitwantedapowerful,unitedKoreaacrosstheSeaofJapan.GiventhebrittlerelationsbetweenTokyoandSeoul,Japanhasreasonstobenervousaboutsuchathing,butasithasfargreaterconcernsaboutChinaitwouldbelikelytocomedownonthe side of supporting reunification, despite the probable scenario that it would be asked to assistfinancially due to its long occupation of the peninsula in the last century. Besides, it knowswhatSeoulknows:mostoftheeconomiccostsofreunificationwillbebornebySouthKorea,andtheywilldwarf those of German reunification. East Germany may have been lagging far behind WestGermany, but it had a history of development, an industrial base, and an educated population.DevelopingthenorthofKoreawouldbebuildingfromgroundzero,andthecostswouldholdbacktheeconomyofaunitedpeninsulaforadecade.Afterthat,thebenefitsoftherichnaturalresourcesofthenorth,suchascoal,zinc,copper,andiron,andthemodernizationprogramwouldbeexpectedtokickin,buttherearemixedfeelingsaboutriskingtheprosperityofoneoftheworld’smostadvancednationsinthemeantime.

Those decisions are for the future. For now, each side continues to prepare for a war; as withPakistanandIndia,theyarelockedinamutualembraceoffearandsuspicion.

SouthKoreaisnowavibrant,integratedmemberofthenationsoftheworld,withaforeignpolicytomatch.Withopenwatertoitswest,east,andsouth,andwithfewnaturalresources,ithastakencaretobuildamodernnavyinthepastthreedecades,onethatiscapableofgettingintotheSeaofJapanandtheEastChinaSeatosafeguardtheROK’sinterests.LikeJapan,itisdependentonforeignsourcesforitsenergyneeds,andsokeepsacloseeyeonthesea-lanesofthewholeregion.Ithasspenttimehedgingitsbets,investingdiplomaticcapitalincloserrelationswithRussiaandChina,muchtoPyongyang’sannoyance.

Amiscalculationbyeithersidecouldleadtoawarthat,aswellashavingdevastatingeffectsonthepeopleofthepeninsula,couldwrecktheeconomiesoftheregion,withmassiveramificationsfortheUSeconomy.WhatstartedwiththeUnitedStatesdefendingitsColdWarstanceagainstRussiahasdevelopedintoanissueofstrategicimportancetoitseconomyandthatofseveralothercountries.

SouthKoreastillhasissueswithTokyo,relatingbacktotheJapaneseoccupation,andevenwhenit is at itsbest,which is rare, the relationship isonlycordial. Inearly2015,when theAmericans,SouthKoreans,and Japanesegotdownto thedetailofanagreement to sharemilitary intelligencethey had each gathered onNorthKorea, Seoul said it would pass along only a limited amount ofsecretinformationtoTokyoviaWashington.ItwillnotdealdirectlywiththeJapanese.

ThetwocountriesstillhaveaterritorialdisputeoverwhatSouthKoreacallstheDokdo(solitary)Islands and the Japanese know as the Takeshima (bamboo) islands. The South Koreans currentlycontroltherockyoutcrops,whichareingoodfishinggrounds,andtheremaybegasreservesintheregion. Despite this thorn in their sides, and the still-fresh memories of occupation, both havereasonstocooperateandleavebehindtheirtroubledpast.

Japan’s history is very different to that of Korea, and the reason for this is partly due to itsgeography.

TheJapaneseareanislandrace,withthemajorityofthe127millionpopulationlivingmostlyonthefourlargeislandsthatfaceKoreaandRussiaacrosstheSeaofJapan,andaminorityinhabiting

some of the 6,848 smaller islands. The largest of themain islands isHonshu, which includes thebiggestmegacityintheworld,Tokyo,andits39millionpeople.

Atitsclosestpoint,Japanis120milesfromtheEurasianland-mass,whichisamongthereasonswhyithasneverbeensuccessfullyinvaded.TheChinesearesomefivehundredmilesawayacrosstheEastChinaSea;andalthoughthereisRussianterritorymuchcloser,theRussianforcesareusuallyfarawaybecauseoftheextremelyinhospitableclimateandsparsepopulationlocatedacrosstheSeaofOkhotsk.

In the1300s, theMongols tried to invade Japanafter sweeping throughChina,Manchuria, anddownthroughKorea.Onthefirstoccasiontheywerebeatenbackandonthesecondastormwreckedtheir fleet.The seas in theKoreaStraitwerewhippedupbywhat the Japanese saidwas a “DivineWind,”whichtheycalledakamikaze.

Sothe threat fromthewestandnorthwestwas limited,and to the southeastandeast therewasnothingbutthePacific.ThislastperspectiveiswhytheJapanesegavethemselvesthenameNippon,or “sunorigin”: looking east therewasnothingbetween themand thehorizon, and eachmorning,rising on that horizon, was the sun. Apart from sporadic invasions of Korea they mostly kept tothemselvesuntilthemodernworldarrived,andwhenitdid,afterfirstpushingitaway,theywentouttomeetit.

OpinionsdifferaboutwhentheislandsbecameJapan,butthereisafamouslettersentfromwhatweknowasJapantotheEmperorofChinain617CEinwhichaJapaneseleadingnoblemanwrites:“HereItheemperorofthecountrywherethesunrisessenda lettertotheemperorof thecountrywherethesunsets.Areyouhealthy?”HistoryrecordsthattheChineseemperortookadimviewofsuchperceived impertinence.His empirewas vast,while themain Japanese islandswere still onlylooselyunited,asituationthatwouldnotchangeuntilapproximatelythesixteenthcentury.

The territory of the Japanese islands makes up a country that is bigger than the two Koreascombined, or, in European terms, bigger than France orGermany.However, three-quarters of theland is not conducive to human habitation, especially in the mountainous regions, and only 13percentissuitableforintensivecultivation.ThisleavestheJapaneselivingincloseproximitytooneanother along the coastal plains and in restricted inland areas,where some stepped rice fields canexist in thehills. Itsmountainsmean that Japanhasplentyofwater, but the lackof flatland alsomeansthatitsriversareunsuitedtonavigationandthereforetrade,aproblemexacerbatedbythefactthatfewoftheriversjoinoneanother.

So the Japanese became a maritime people, connecting and trading along the coasts of theirmyriad islands, making forays into Korea, and then after centuries of isolation pushing out todominatethewholeregion.

By the beginning of the twentieth century Japanwas an industrial powerwith the third-largestnavyintheworld,andin1905itdefeatedtheRussiansinawarfoughtonlandandatsea.However,thevery same island-nationgeographythathadallowed it to remain isolatedwasnowgiving itnochoicebuttoengagewiththeworld.Theproblemwasthatitchosetoengagemilitarily.

Japanhadfewofthenaturalresourcesrequiredtobecomeanindustrializednation.Ithadlimitedandpoor-quality suppliesof coal, very littleoil, scantquantitiesofnatural gas, limited suppliesofrubber,andashortageofmanymetals.Thisisastruenowasitwasonehundredyearsago,althoughoffshoregasfieldsarebeingexploredalongwiththoseofunderwaterpreciousmetals.Nevertheless,itremainstheworld’slargestimporterofnaturalgas,andthethird-largestimporterofoil.

Itwasthethirstfortheseproducts,notablyironandoil,thatcausedJapantorampageacrossthefar-lessdevelopedSoutheastAsia in the1930sandearly ’40s. IthadalreadyoccupiedTaiwan in1895andfollowedthisupwiththeannexationofKoreain1910.JapanoccupiedManchuriain1931,thenconductedafull-scaleinvasionofChinain1937.Aseachdominofell,theexpandingempireandthegrowingJapanesepopulationrequiredmoreoil,morecoal,moremetal,morerubber,andmorefood.

With the European powers preoccupiedwithwar in Europe, Japanwent on to invade northernIndochina.Eventually theAmericans,who by thenwere supplyingmost of Japan’s oil needs, gavethemanultimatum—withdrawaloranoilembargo.TheJapaneserespondedwiththeattackonPearlHarbor and then swept on across Southeast Asia, taking Burma, Singapore, and the Philippines,amongotherterritory.

This was a massive overstretch, not just taking on the United States, but grabbing the veryresources,rubber,forexample,thattheUnitedStatesrequiredforitsownindustry.Thegiantofthetwentieth century mobilized for total war. Japan’s geography then played a role in its greatestcatastrophes—HiroshimaandNagasaki.

TheAmericanshadfoughttheirwayacrossthePacific,islandtoisland,atgreatcost.BythetimetheytookOkinawa,whichsitsintheRyukyuislandchainbetweenTaiwanandJapan,theywerefacedwith a still-fanatical enemy prepared to defend the approaches and four main islands fromamphibiousinvasion.MassiveUSlosseswerepredicted.IftheterrainhadbeeneasiertheAmericans’choicemayhavebeendifferent—theymighthave fought theirway toTokyo—but they chose thenuclearoption,unleashinguponJapan,andthecollectiveconscienceoftheworld,theterrorofanewage.

After the radioactive dusthad settledon a complete Japanese surrender, theAmericanshelpedthem rebuild, partially as a hedge against Communist China. The new Japan showed its oldinventivenessandwithinthreedecadesbecameaglobaleconomicpowerhouse.

However, itspreviousbelligerenceandmilitarismwasnotentirelygone: ithad justbeenburiedbeneath the rubble of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and a shattered national psyche. Japan’s postwarconstitutiondidnotallowforittohaveanarmy,airforce,ornavy,only“Self-DefenseForces,”whichfordecadeswereapaleshadowoftheprewarmilitary.ThepostwaragreementimposedbytheUnitedStates limited Japan’s defense spending to 1 percent of the GDP and left tens of thousands ofAmericanforcesonJapaneseterritory,thirty-twothousandofwhomarestillthere.

But by the early 1980s, the faint stirrings of nationalism could again be detected. There weresections of the older generation who had never accepted the enormity of Japan’s war crimes, andsectionsoftheyoungerwhowerenotpreparedtoacceptguiltforthesinsoftheirfathers.Manyofthechildren of theLand of theRisingSunwanted their “natural” place under the sun of the postwarworld.

Aflexibleviewoftheconstitutionbecamethenorm,andslowlytheJapaneseSelf-DefenseForceswere turned into a modern fighting unit. This happened as the rise of China was becomingincreasinglyapparent,andsotheAmericans,realizingtheyweregoingtoneedmilitaryalliesinthePacificregion,werepreparedtoacceptaremilitarizedJapan.

In thepresentcentury, Japanhas altered itsdefensepolicy toallow its forces to fight alongsidealliesabroad,andchangestotheconstitutionareexpectedtofollowtoputthisonamoresolidlegalfooting. Its 2013 Security Strategy document was the first in which it named a potential enemy,saying: “China has taken actions that can be regarded as attempts to change the status quo bycoercion.”

ThewordingofChapterII,Article9,oftheJapaneseconstitutionmakesitdifficultforTokyotouse itsmilitaryabroad.PrimeMinisterAbe’scoalitiongovernmenthasa flexibleviewofArticle9and intends to persuade a sometimes-skeptical public that Japan now needs to play a moreadventurousroleintheregion,especiallyinsupportingitsalliesaspartof“collectivedefense.”

The 2015 defense budget was its biggest to date, with the yen mostly going to naval and airequipment,includingsixUS-madeF-35Astealthfighters.Inthespringof2015,Tokyoalsounveiledwhat it called a “helicopter-carrying destroyer.” It didn’t take amilitary expert to notice that thevesselwasasbigastheJapaneseaircraftcarriersoftheSecondWorldWar,whichareforbiddenbythesurrendertermsof1945.Theshipcanbeadaptedforfixed-wingaircraft,butthedefenseministerissuedastatementsayingthathewas“notthinkingofusingitasanaircraftcarrier.”Thisisakintobuying amotorcycle, then saying that because you are not going to use it as amotorcycle, it is abicycle.TheJapanesenowhaveanaircraftcarrier.

Themoneyspentonthatandothershinynewgearisaclearstatementofintent,asismuchofitspositioning.ThemilitaryinfrastructureatOkinawa,whichguardstheapproachestothemainislands,willbeupgraded.ThiswillalsoallowJapangreaterflexibilitytopatrolitsAirDefenseZone,partofwhichoverlapswithChina’sequivalentzoneafteranexpansionwasannouncedbyBeijingin2013.

BothzonescovertheislandscalledtheSenkakuorDiaoyu(inJapaneseandChinese,respectively),whichJapancontrolsbutthatareclaimedbyChina,too.TheyalsoformpartoftheRyukyuislandchain,which is particularly sensitive as anyhostilepowermustpass the islandson theway to theJapaneseheartlands;theygiveJapanalotofterritorialseaspace,andtheymightcontainexploitableunderwatergasandoilfields.ThusTokyointendstoholdontothembyallmeansnecessary.

China’sexpandedAirDefenseIdentificationZoneintheEastChinaSeacoversterritoryclaimedbyChina,Japan,Taiwan,andSouthKorea.WhenBeijingsaidthatanyplaneflyingthroughthezonemust identity itself or “face defensive measures,” Japan, South Korea, and the United Statesrespondedbyflyingthroughitwithoutdoingso.TherewasnohostileresponsefromChina,butthisisanissuethatcanbeturnedintoanultimatumatatimeofBeijing’schoosing.

JapanalsoclaimssovereigntyovertheKurilIslandsinitsfarnorth,offHokkaido,whichitlosttotheSovietUnionintheSecondWorldWarandthatarestillunderRussiancontrol.Russiaprefersnot todiscuss thematter,but thedebate isnot in the same leagueas Japan’sdisputeswithChina.ThereareonlyapproximatelynineteenthousandinhabitantsoftheKuril Islands,andalthoughtheislandssit in fertile fishinggrounds,theterritory isnotoneofparticularstrategic importance.Theissue ensures thatRussia and Japanmaintain a frosty relationship, butwithin that frost theyhaveprettymuchfrozenthequestionoftheislands.

ItisChinathatkeepsJapaneseleadersawakeatnightandkeepsthemclosetotheUnitedStates,diplomatically and militarily. Many Japanese, especially on Okinawa, resent the US militarypresence,butthemightofChina,addedtothedeclineintheJapanesepopulation,islikelytoensurethatthepostwarUS-Japanrelationshipcontinues,albeitonamoreequalbasis.Japanesestatisticiansfearthatthepopulationwillshrinktounder100millionbythemiddleofthecentury.Ifthecurrentbirth rate continues, it is evenpossible that by2110 thepopulationwillhave fallenbelow the50millionitwasin1910.Japanesegovernmentsaretryingavarietyofmeasurestoreversethedecline.Arecentexampleisusingmillionsofdollarsoftaxpayers’moneytofundamatchmakingserviceforyoungcouples.Subsidizedkonkatsupartiesarearrangedforsinglemenandwomentomeet,eat,drink,and—eventually—have babies. Immigration is another possible solution, but Japan remains a

relativelyinsularsocietyandimmigrationisnotfavoredbythepopulation.Giventhatincreasinglyassertive China has a population of 1.3 billion, Japan, itself a remilitarizing power with a quietlyhawkishoutlook,isgoingtorequirefriendsintheneighborhood.

So theAmericans are staying in both Korea and Japan. There is now a triangular relationshipamongthem,asunderlinedbytheintelligenceagreementnotedearlier.JapanandSouthKoreahaveplenty to argue about, butwill agree that their shared anxiety aboutChina andNorthKoreawillovercomethis.

EveniftheydogoontosolveaproblemlikeKorea,theissueofChinawillstillbethere,andthismeanstheUS7thFleetwillremaininTokyoBayandUSMarineswillremaininOkinawa,guardingthepathsinandoutofthePacificandtheChinaseas.Thewaterscanbeexpectedtoberough.

9

LATINAMERICA

LatinAmericaisveryfondoftheword“hope.”Weliketobecalledthe“continentofhope”...Thishopeislikeapromiseofheaven,anIOUwhosepaymentisalwaysputoff.Itisputoffuntilthenextlegislativecampaign,untilnextyear,untilthenextcentury.

—PabloNeruda,ChileanpoetandNobelLaureate

LatinAmerica, particularly its south, is proof that you can bring theOldWorld’s knowledge andtechnologytothenew,butifgeographyisagainstyou,thenyouwillhavelimitedsuccess,especiallyif you get the politicswrong. Just as the geography of theUnitedStates helped it become a greatpower,sothatofthetwentycountriestothesouthensuresthatnonewillrisetoseriouslychallengetheNorthAmericangiantthiscenturynorcometogethertodosocollectively.

ThelimitationsofLatinAmerica’sgeographywerecompoundedrightfromthebeginningintheformationofitsnationstates.IntheUnitedStates,oncethelandhadbeentakenfromitsoriginalinhabitants,muchofitwassoldorgivenawaytosmalllandholders;bycontrast,inLatinAmericatheOldWorldcultureofpowerfullandownersandserfswasimposed,whichledtoinequality.Ontopofthis, the European settlers introduced another geographical problem that to this day holds manycountriesbackfromdevelopingtheirfullpotential:theystayednearthecoasts,especially(aswesawinAfrica)inregionswheretheinteriorwasinfestedbymosquitoesanddisease.Mostofthecountries’biggestcities,oftenthecapitals,werethereforenearthecoasts,andallroadsfromtheinteriorweredevelopedtoconnecttothecapitalsbutnottooneanother.

In some cases, for example in Peru and Argentina, the metropolitan area of the capital citycontainsmorethan30percentofthecountry’spopulation.Thecolonialistsconcentratedongettingthewealthoutofeachregion,tothecoastandontoforeignmarkets.EvenafterindependencethepredominantlyEuropeancoastal elites failed to invest in the interior, andwhatpopulationcentersthereareinlandremainpoorlyconnectedwithoneanother.

Atthebeginningof thisdecade itwas fashionableamongmanybusiness leaders,professors,andmediaanalyststoarguepassionatelythatwewereatthedawnofthe“LatinAmericandecade.”Ithasnot come to pass, and although the region has as yet unfulfilled potential, it will constantly befightingagainstthehanditwasdealtbynatureandhistory.

Mexicoisgrowingintoaregionalpower,butitwillalwayshavethedesertwastelandsinitsnorth,itsmountainstotheeastandwest,anditsjunglesinthesouth,allphysicallylimitingitseconomicgrowth. Brazil has made its appearance on the world stage, but its internal regions will remainisolated fromoneanother;andArgentinaandChile,despite theirwealthofnatural resources,willstillbefarfartherawayfromNewYorkandWashingtonthanareParisandLondon.

Two hundred years after the beginning of the struggle for independence, the Latin AmericancountrieslagfarbehindtheNorthAmericansandtheEuropeans.Theirtotalpopulation(includingtheCaribbean) is600millionpeople,andyet theircombinedGDP isequivalent to thatofFrance

and the UK, which together comprise 120 million people. They have come a long way sincecolonialismandslavery.Thereisstillalongwaytogo.

LatinAmericabeginsattheMexicanborderwiththeUnitedStatesandstretchessouthwardseventhousandmilesthroughCentralAmerica,andthenSouthAmerica,beforeendingatTierradelFuegoonCapeHorn,wheretheworld’stwogreatoceans,thePacificandtheAtlantic,meet.Atitswidestpoint,westtoeast,fromBrazilacrosstoPeru,itis3,200miles.OnthewesternsideisthePacific,onthe other theGulf ofMexico, theCaribbean Sea, and theAtlantic.None of the coastlines havemanynaturaldeepharbors,thuslimitingtrade.

CentralAmerica is hill countrywith deep valleys, and at its narrowest point is only 120milesacross. Then, running parallel to the Pacific, for 4,500miles, is the longest continuousmountainchain in the world—the Andes. They are snow-capped along their entire length and mostlyimpassable, thus cutting offmany regions in thewest of the continent from the east.Thehighestpoint in theWesternHemisphere is here—the22,843-footAconcaguaMountain—and thewaterstumblingdownfromthemountainrangeareasourceofhydroelectricpowerfortheAndeannationsofChile, Peru, Ecuador,Colombia, andVenezuela. Finally, the land descends, forests and glaciersappear,weareintotheChileanarchipelago,andthen—land’send.TheeasternsideofLatinAmericaisdominatedbyBrazilandtheAmazonRiver,thesecondlongestintheworldaftertheNile.

Oneof the fewthingsthecountrieshave incommonis languagebasedonLatin.Spanish is thelanguageofalmostallofthem,butinBrazilitisPortuguese,andinFrenchGuiana—French.Butthislinguistic connectiondisguises thedifferences in a continent thathas five different climatologicalregions.The relative flatlandeastof theAndesand temperateclimateof the lower thirdofSouthAmerica, known as the SouthernCone, are in stark contrast to themountains and jungle farthernorthandenableagriculturalandconstructioncosts tobe reduced, thusmaking themsomeof themostprofitableregionsontheentirecontinent—whereasBrazil,asweshallsee,evenhasdifficultymovinggoodsarounditsowndomesticmarket.

Academicsandjournalistsarefondofwritingthatthecontinentis“atacrossroads”—asinaboutto embark at last on its great future. I would argue that geographically speaking, it is less at acrossroads than at thebottomof theworld; there’s a lot goingon all over this vast space, but theproblemismuchofitisgoingonalongwayfromanywhereotherthanitself.Thatmaybeconsidereda Northern Hemispheric view, but it is also a view of where the major economic, military, anddiplomaticpowersaresituated.

Despite its remoteness from history’s major population centers, there have been people livingsouth of what is now the Mexico-US border for approximately fifteen thousand years. They arethoughttohaveoriginatedfromRussiaandcrossedtheBeringStraitonfootatatimewhenitwasstill land.Thepresent-day inhabitantsareamixtureofEuropeans,Africans, indigenous tribes,andtheMestizopopulation,whoareofEuropeanandNativeAmericandescent.

ThismixcanbetracedbacktotheTreatyofTordesillasbetweenSpainandPortugalin1494,oneoftheearlyexamplesofEuropeancolonialistsdrawinglinesonmapsoffarawayplacesaboutwhichtheyknewlittle—or, inthiscase,nothing.Astheysetoffwestwardtoexploretheoceans, thetwogreatEuropeanseapowersagreedthatanylanddiscoveredoutsideEuropewouldbesharedbetweenthem. The pope agreed. The rest is a very unfortunate history in which the vast majority of theoccupantsofthelandsnowcalledSouthAmericawerewipedout.

The independencemovementsbegan intheearly1800s, ledbySimónBolívarofVenezuelaandJosédeSanMartínofArgentina.Bolivar inparticular is etched in thecollectiveconsciousnessofSouthAmerica:Bolivia isnamed inhishonor, and the left-leaningcountriesof thecontinentare

loosely tied in a “Bolivarian” ideology against the United States. This is a fluctuating set ofanticolonialist/pro-socialistideasthatoftenstrayintonationalismasandwhenitsuitsthepoliticianswhoespousethem.

Inthenineteenthcentury,manyofthenewlyindependentcountriesbrokeapart,eitherthroughcivil conflict or cross-borderwars, but by the endof that century theborders of thevarious statesweremostlyset.Thethreerichestnations—Brazil,Argentina,andChile—thensetoffonaruinouslyexpensive naval arms race, which held back the development of all three. There remain borderdisputesthroughoutthecontinent,butthegrowthofdemocracymeansthatmostareeitherfrozenorthereareattemptstoworkthemoutdiplomatically.

Particularly bitter is the relationship betweenBolivia andChile,which dates back to the 1879War of the Pacific in which Bolivia lost a large chunk of its territory, including 250 miles ofcoastline,andhasbeenlandlockedeversince.Ithasneverrecoveredfromthisblow,whichpartiallyexplainswhy it is among the poorest LatinAmerican countries. This in turn has exacerbated theseveredividebetweenthemostlyEuropeanlowlandspopulationandthemostlyindigenouspeoplesofthehighlands.

Timehasnothealedthewoundsbetweenthem,northosebetweenthetwocountries.DespitethefactthatBoliviahasthethird-largestreservesofnaturalgasinSouthAmericaitwillnotsellanytoChile,whichisinneedofareliablesupplier.TwoBolivianpresidentswhotoyedwiththeideawerethrownoutofofficeandthecurrentpresident,EvoMorales,hasa“gastoChile”policyconsistingofa“gasforcoastline”deal,whichisdismissedbyChiledespiteitsneedforenergy.Nationalprideandgeographicalneedonbothsidestrumpdiplomaticcompromise.

Anotherborderdisputedatingbacktothenineteenthcentury is indicatedbythebordersoftheBritishterritoryofBelizeandneighboringGuatemala.Theyarestraightlines,suchaswehaveseeninAfricaandtheMiddleEast,andtheyweredrawnbytheBritish.GuatemalaclaimsBelizeaspartofitssovereignterritorybut,unlikeBolivia,isunwillingtopushtheissue.ChileandArgentinaargueover theBeagleChannelwater route,Venezuela claimshalf ofGuiana, andEcuadorhashistoricalclaimsonPeru.Thislastexampleisoneofthemoreseriouslanddisputesinthecontinentandhasledtothreeborderwarsoverthepastseventy-fiveyears,themostrecentbeingin1995;butagain,thegrowthofdemocracyhaseasedtensions.

The second half of the twentieth century saw Central and South America become a proxybattlefield of the Cold War with accompanying coups d’état, military dictatorships, and massivehumanrightsabuses,forexample,inNicaragua.TheendoftheColdWarallowedmanynationstomove toward democracy and, compared to the twentieth century, relations between themarenowrelativelystable.

TheLatinAmericans,oratleastthosesouthofPanama,mostlyresideon,ornear,thewesternandeastern coasts, with the interior and the freezing cold far south very sparsely populated. SouthAmericaisineffectademographicallyhollowcontinentanditscoastlineisoftenreferredtoasthe“populatedrim.”ThisislesstrueofCentralAmericaandespeciallyMexico,wherethepopulationsaremoreequallydistributed;butMexicoinparticularhasdifficultterrain,whichlimitsitsambitionsandforeignpolicies.

Initsfarnorth,Mexicohasatwo-thousand-mile-longborderwiththeUnitedStates,almostallofwhichisdesert.The landhere is soharshthatmostof it isuninhabited.Thisactsasabuffer zonebetweenitanditsgiantnorthernneighbor—butabufferthatismoreadvantageoustotheAmericansthantheMexicansduetothedisparityintheirtechnology.Militarily,onlyUSforcescouldstageamajorinvasionacrossit;anyforcecomingtheotherwaywouldbedestroyed.Asabarriertoillegal

entry into the United States it is useful, but porous—a problem with which successive USadministrationswillhavetodeal.

AllMexicans know that before the 1846–48 war with theUnited States the land that is nowTexas,California,NewMexico,andArizonawaspartofMexico.TheconflictledtohalfofMexico’sterritorybeingcededtotheUnitedStates.However,thereisnoseriouspoliticalmovementtoregainthe region and no pressing border dispute between the two countries. Throughout most of thetwentiethcenturytheysquabbledoverasmallpieceoflandaftertheRioGrandechangedcourseinthe1850s,butin1967bothsidesagreedtheareawaslegallypartofMexico.

Bythemiddleofthetwenty-firstcentury,Hispanicsarelikelytobethelargestethnicgroupinthefour American states listed above and many will be of Mexican origin. There may eventually beSpanish-speaking political movements on both sides of the US-Mexico border calling forreunification, but tempering this would be the fact thatmanyUS Latinos will not haveMexicanheritage, and that Mexico is unlikely to have anything approaching the living standards of theUnitedStates.TheMexicangovernmentstrugglestocontrolevenitsownterritory—itwillnotbeinaposition to takeonanymore in the foreseeable future.Mexico isdestined to live in theUnitedStates’sshadowandassuchwillalwaysplaythesubservientroleinbilateralrelations.ItlacksanavycapableofsecuringtheGulfofMexicoorpushingoutintotheAtlantic,andsoreliesontheUSnavytoensurethesea-lanesremainopenandsafe.

Privatecompaniesfrombothnationshavesetupfactoriesjustsouthofthebordertocutcostsinlabor and transport, but the region is hostile to human existence andwill remain the buffer landacrosswhichmanyof thepoorofLatinAmericawillcontinue tocrossas they seekentry, legalorillegal,tothePromisedLandtothenorth.

Mexico’smajormountain ranges, theSierraMadres, dominate thewest andeast of the countryandbetweenthemisaplateau.Inthesouth,intheValleyofMexico,isthecapital—MexicoCity—oneoftheworld’smegacapitalcitieswithapopulationofaround20millionpeople.

Onthewesternslopesofthehighlandsandinthevalleysthesoilispoor,andtheriversoflimitedassistanceinmovinggoodstomarket.Ontheeasternslopesthelandismorefertile,buttheruggedterrain still preventsMexico from developing as it would like. To the south lie the borders withBelize andGuatemala.Mexicohas little interest inexpanding southwardbecause the landquicklyrisestobecomethesortofmountainousterrainit isdifficulttoconquerorcontrol.ExtendingintoeithercountrywouldnotenlargethelimitedamountofprofitablelandMexicoalreadyhas.Ithasnoideological territorial ambitions and instead concentrates on trying to develop its limited oil-producing industry and attractingmore investment into its factories. Besides,Mexico has enoughinternalproblemstocopewith,withoutgetting intoany foreignadventures—perhapsnone greaterthanitsroleinsatisfyingtheAmericans’voraciousappetitefordrugs.

TheMexicanborderhas alwaysbeenahaven for smugglers, butnevermore so than in the lasttwentyyears.ThisisadirectresultoftheUSgovernment’spolicyinColombia,1,500milesawaytothesouth.

ItwasPresidentNixoninthe1970swhofirstdeclareda“WaronDrugs,”which,likea“WaronTerror,” is a somewhatnebulous concept inwhichvictory cannot be achieved.However, itwasn’tuntiltheearly1990sthatWashingtontookthewardirectlytotheColombiandrugcartelswithovertassistancetotheColombiangovernment.ItalsohadsuccessinclosingdownmanyoftheairandseadrugroutesfromColombiaintotheUnitedStates.

The cartels responded by creating a land route—up throughCentralAmerica andMexico, andinto theAmericanSouthwest.This in turn led theMexicandruggangs toget inon theactionby

facilitating the routes andmanufacturing their own produce. The route partially follows the Pan-AmericanHighway,whichrunssouthtonorthupthecontinent.Originallydesignedtomovegoodsin eachdirection to a variety of countries, it is now also used tomovedrugsnorth to theUnitedStates. The multibillion-dollar business sparked local turf wars, with the winners using their newpower and money to infiltrate and corrupt the Mexican police and military and get inside thepoliticalandbusinesselites.

In this there are parallels with the heroin trade in Afghanistan. Many of the Afghan farmersgrowingthepoppycroprespondedtoNATO’sattemptstodestroytheirtraditionalwayofmakingalivingbyeithertakinguparmsorsupportingtheTaliban.Itmaybethegovernment’spolicytowageaWaronDrugs,butthisdoesnotmeanthattheordersarecarriedoutataregionallevel,whichtheAfghandruglordshavepenetrated.SoitisinMexico.

Throughout history, successive governments inMexicoCity have never had a firm grip on thecountry.Nowitsopponents,thedrugcartels,haveparamilitarywingswhichareaswellarmedastheforcesofthestate,oftenbetterpaid,moremotivated,andinseveralregionsareregardedasasourceofemploymentbysomemembersofthepublic.Thevastsumsofmoneymadebythegangsnowswillaround the country,muchof it beingwashed throughwhat appear on the surface to be legitimatebusinesses.

Theoverlandsupplylandrouteisfirmlyestablished,andthedemandintheUnitedStatesshowsfew signsofdiminishing.AllMexicangovernments try tokeepon the right sideof theirpowerfulneighborandhaverespondedtoAmericanpressurebywagingtheirownWaronDrugs.Here liesaconundrum. Mexico makes its living by supplying consumer goods to America, and as long asAmericansconsumedrugs,Mexicanswillsupplythem—afterall,theideahereistomakethingsthatare cheap to produce and sell them at prices higher than those in legal trade.Without drugs thecountrywouldbeevenpoorerthanit is,asavastamountof foreignmoneywouldbecutoff.Withdrugsitisevenmoreviolentthanitwouldbe.ThesameistrueofsomeofthecountriestoMexico’ssouth.

Mexicoisnowinthegripofwhatisalmostacivilwar.Thecartelstrytocontrolterritorythroughintimidation; the government tries to pretend it is in charge of the rule of law; and hundreds ofcivilians,caught inthemiddle,arebeingkilled.Amongthemosthorrific recentmanifestationsofthis was the presumed murder of forty-three student teachers by a cartel in 2014, an act whichtraumatizedthecountry,galvanizedtheauthorities,butultimatelylookstobe“just”anotherterriblemilestoneinwhatwillbealongstruggle.

CentralAmericacouldseemanychanges in theregions thatarereceivingChinese investment,suchas thedevelopmentoftheNicaraguaGrandCanal.

CentralAmericahaslittlegoingforitbywayofgeographybutforonething.Itisthin.Sofar,theonlycountrytogainadvantagefromthishasbeenPanama,butwiththearrivalofnewmoneyfromChinathatmaybeabouttochange.

ModerntechnologymeanstheChinesecanseefromaglanceatasatellitephotographthetradeopportunities this thin stretchof landmightbring. In1513, theSpanishexplorerVascoNúñezdeBalboahadtosailacross theAtlantic, land inwhat isnowPanama, thentrekthrough junglesandovermountainsbeforeseeinganothervastocean—thePacific.Theadvantagesoflinkingthemwereobvious,butitwasanother401yearsbeforetechnologycaughtupwithgeography.In1914,thenewlybuilt, fifty-mile-long, American-controlled Panama Canal opened, thus saving ships an eight-thousand-milejourneyfromtheAtlantictothePacificOceanandleadingtoeconomicgrowthinthecanalregion.

Since1999, thecanalhasbeencontrolledbyPanama,but is regardedasaneutral internationalwaterway that is safeguarded by theUS and Panama navies. And therein, for the Chinese, lies aproblem.

PanamaandtheUnitedStatesarefriends—infact,suchgoodfriendsthatin2014VenezuelacuttieswithPanama,callingita“USlackey.”Theeffectoftherhetoricoftheincreasinglyembattledcountry’s Bolivarian revolutionary era is tempered by the knowledge that the United States isVenezuela’smost important commercial partner and thatVenezuela supplies 12 percent ofUS oilimports.TheenergytradebetweenthemislikelytofallastheeffectsoftheUSshalerevolutionkickin,butBeijingwillbeawillingimporterofVenezuelanoil,andisworkingonhowtogetittoChinawithoutrelyingontheroutethroughPanama.

China,aswesawinchaptertwo,hasdesignsonbeingaglobalpower,andtoachievethisaimitwillneed tokeep sea-lanesopen for its commerceand itsnavy.ThePanamaCanalmaywellbeaneutralpassageway,butattheendoftheday,passagethroughitisdependentonAmericangoodwill.

So,whynotbuildyourowncanaluptheroadinNicaragua?Afterall,what’s$50billiontoagrowingsuperpower?

TheNicaraguaGrandCanalproject is fundedby aHongKongbusinessmannamedWang Jing,whohasmadealotofmoneyintelecommunicationsbuthasnoexperienceinengineering,letalonemastermindingoneofthemostambitiousconstructionprojectsinthehistoryoftheworld.Mr.WangisadamantthattheChinesegovernmentnotbeinvolvedintheproject.GiventhenatureofChina’sbusinesscultureandtheparticipationofitsgovernmentinallaspectsoflife,thisisunusual.

The$50-billioncostestimate for theproject,which isdue forcompletion in theearly2020s, isfourtimesthesizeoftheentireNicaraguaneconomyandformspartofthesubstantialinvestmentinLatinAmericafromChina,whichisslowlybutsteadilysupplantingtheUnitedStatesastheregion’smain trading partner. Exactly who is financially backing Mr. Wang is unclear, but Nicaragua’sPresidentDanielOrtegasignedontotheplanwithalacrityandwithscarcelyaglanceatthethirtythousandpeoplewhomayberequiredtomovefromtheirlandsbecauseoftheproject.

TheformerrevolutionarysocialistSandinistafirebrandnowfindshimselfaccusedofbeingontheside of big business. The canal will split the country in two and six municipalities will findthemselves divided.Therewill be only one bridge across the canal along its entire length.Ortegamust know he risks sowing the seeds of dissent, but argues that the project will bring tens ofthousands of jobs andmuch-needed investment and revenue to the second-poorest country in theWesternHemisphere.

TheNicaraguancanalwillbe longer than thePanamaand,crucially,willbe significantlywideranddeeper, thus allowingmuch bigger tankers and container ships through, not tomention largeChinesenavalvessels.Itwillrundirectlyeasttowest,whereasthePanamaCanalactuallyrunsnorthtosouth.ThemiddlesectionwillbedredgedoutofLakeNicaragua,whichhasledenvironmentaliststowarnthatLatinAmerica’slargestfreshwaterlakemaybecomecontaminated.

GiventhatthePanamaCanalafewhundredmilestothesouthisbeingwidened,skepticsaskwhytheNicaraguan version is necessary.Chinawill have control of a canal able to take bigger ships,whichwillhelpguaranteetheeconomiesofscaleonlyChinaiscapableof.TherearequestionsaboutthefutureprofitabilityoftheNicaraguancanal—itmaytakedecadestomakemoney—butthisisaprojectthatappearstobemoreaboutthenationalinterestsofChinathanaboutcommercialprofit.

Gouginga linkbetweentwooceansoutofanationstate is just themostvisible signofChina’sinvestmentinLatinAmerica.We’vegrownusedtoseeingtheChineseasmajorplayersinAfrica,butfortwentyyearsnowtheyhavebeenquietlymovinginsouthoftheRioGrande.

As well as investing in construction projects, China is lending huge sums of money to LatinAmericangovernments,notablythose inArgentina,Venezuela,andEcuador. Inreturn,ChinawillbeexpectingsupportintheUnitedNationsforitsregionalclaimsbackhome,includingtheissueofTaiwan.

Beijingisalsobuying.TheLatinAmericanstateshavebeenpickedoffonebyonebytheUnitedStates,whichprefersbilateraltradedealstodoingbusinesswiththeregionasawhole,astheyhavetodowiththeEU.TheChinesearedoingthesamethingbutatleastofferanalternative,thusreducingtheregion’sdependencyontheUnitedStatesasitsmarket.Forexample,ChinahasnowreplacedtheUnited States as Brazil’s main trading partner, and may do the same with several other LatinAmericancountries.

TheLatinAmericancountriesdonothaveanaturalaffinitywiththeUnitedStates.RelationsaredominatedbyAmerica’sstartingposition,laidoutintheMonroeDoctrineof1823(aswehaveseeninchapterthree)duringPresidentMonroe’sStateoftheUnionaddress.Thedoctrinewarnedoffthe

Europeancolonialistsandsaid,inasmanywords,thatLatinAmericawastheUnitedStates’backyardandsphereofinfluence.IthasbeenorchestratingeventsthereeversinceandmanyLatinAmericansbelievetheresultshavenotalwaysbeenpositive.

EightdecadesafterMonroe’sDoctrine,alongcameanotherpresidentwith“Monroereloaded.”Inaspeechin1904,TheodoreRooseveltsaid:“IntheWesternHemispheretheadherenceoftheUnitedStatestotheMonroeDoctrinemayforcetheUnitedStates,howeverreluctantly,inflagrantcasesofsuchwrongdoingorimpotence,totheexerciseofaninternationalpolicepower.”Inotherwords,theUnited States could militarily intervene whenever it chose to in the Western Hemisphere. Notincludingthefundingofrevolutions,thearmingofgroups,andtheprovisionofmilitarytrainers,theUnitedStatesusedforceinLatinAmericaalmostfiftytimesbetween1890andtheendoftheColdWar.

Afterthat,overtinterferencedroppedoffrapidlyand,in2001,theUnitedStateswasasignatoryto the thirty-four-nation Inter-American Democratic Charter drafted by the Organization ofAmericanStates,whichproclaimsthat“ThepeoplesoftheAmericashavearighttodemocracyandtheirgovernmentshaveanobligationtopromoteanddefendit.”SincethentheUnitedStateshasconcentratedonbindingtheLatinAmericancountriestoitselfeconomicallybybuildingupexistingtrade pacts like the North American Free Trade Association, and introducing others such as theCentralAmericanFreeTradeAgreement.

The lack ofwarmth thus engendered in south/northhistoric and economic relationshipsmeantthatwhen theChinesecameknocking,doorsquicklyopened.Beijingnowsellsordonates arms toUruguay,Colombia,Chile,Mexico,andPeru,andoffersthemmilitaryexchanges.Itistryingtobuildamilitary relationshipwithVenezuela,which ithopeswilloutlast theBolivarianrevolution ifandwhen it collapses. The arms supplies to LatinAmerica are relatively small-scale but complementChina’seffortsatsoftpower.Itssolehospitalship,PeaceArk,visitedtheregionin2011.Itisonlyathree-hundred-bedvessel,dwarfedbytheAmericanone-thousand-bedversionthatalsovisits,butitwasasignalofintentandareminderthatChinaincreasingly“gets”softpower.

However,withorwithoutChinese trade, thecountriesofLatinAmericaare inescapably lockedintoageographicalregion—whichmeansthattheUnitedStateswillalwaysbeamajorplayer.

Brazil,whichmakes up fully one-third of the land of SouthAmerica, is the best example. It isalmostasbigastheUnitedStates,anditstwenty-sevenfederalstatesequalanareabiggerthanthetwenty-eightEUcountriescombined;butunlikethemitlackstheinfrastructuretobeasrich.AthirdofBrazilisjungle,whereitispainfullyexpensive,andinsomeareasillegal,tocarveoutlandfitformodern human habitation. The destruction of the Amazon rainforest is a long-term ecologicalproblemforthewholeworld,butitisalsoamedium-termproblemforBrazil:thegovernmentallowsslash-and-burnfarmerstocutdownthejungleandthenusethelandforagriculture.Butthesoilissopoor that within a few years crop-growing is untenable. The farmers move on to cut down morerainforest,andoncetherainforestiscutitdoesnotgrowback.Theclimateandsoilworkagainstthedevelopmentofagriculture.

TheAmazonRivermaybenavigableinparts,butitsbanksaremuddyandthesurroundinglandmakes it difficult to build on. This problem, too, seriously limits the amount of profitable landavailable. JustbelowtheAmazonregion, inthehighlands, is thesavannahand,bycontrast, it isasuccess story. Twenty-five years ago this area was considered unfit for agriculture, but Braziliantechnologyhasturnedinintooneoftheworld’slargestproducerofsoybeans,which—togetherwiththegrowthingrainproduction—meansthecountryisbecomingamajoragriculturalproducer.

TothesouthofthesavannaharethetraditionalBrazilianagricultural lands.WearenowintheSouthern Cone of South America, which Brazil shares with Argentina, Uruguay, and Chile. TherelativelysmallBraziliansectioniswherethefirstPortuguesecolonialistslived,anditwastobethreehundredyearsbeforethepopulationcouldpushoutfromthisheartlandandsignificantlypopulatetherestofthecountry.Tothisdaymostpeoplestillliveclosetothecoastalareas,despitethedramaticdecisionmadeinthelate1950stomovethecapital(previouslyRiodeJaneiro)severalhundredmilesinlandtothepurpose-builtcityofBrasiliainanattempttodeveloptheheartofBrazil.

ThesouthernagriculturalheartlandisaboutthesizeofSpain,Portugal,andItalycombinedandismuchflatterthantherestofthecountry.Itisrelativelywellwatered,butmostofitisintheinterioroftheregionandlacksproperlydevelopedtransportroutes.

ThesameistrueofmostofBrazil.IfyoulookatmanyoftheBraziliancoastalcitiesfromtheseathere isusuallyamassivecliff risingdramaticallyoutof thewatereither sideof theurbanarea,ordirectlybehindit.KnownastheGrandEscarpment,itdominatesmuchofBrazil’scoast;itistheendoftheplateaucalledtheBrazilianShield,ofwhichmostofBrazil’sinterioriscomprised.

Because the country lacks a coastal plain, to connect itsmajor coastal cities you need to buildroutesupandover theescarpment,along to thenexturbanareaand thenbackdown.The lackofdecentmodern roads is compounded by a similar deficiency of rail track. This is not a recipe forprofitabletradingorforunifyingalargespacepolitically.

It getsworse.Brazildoesnothavedirect access to the riversof theRiode laPlata region.TheRiverPlateitselfemptiesoutintotheAtlanticinArgentina,meaningthatforcenturiestradershavemovedtheirgoodsdownthePlatetoBuenosAriesratherthancarrythemupanddowntheGrandEscarpment to get to Brazil’s underdeveloped ports. The Texas-based geopolitical intelligencecompanyStratfor.comestimatesthatBrazil’ssevenlargestportscombinedcanhandlefewergoodsperyearthanthesingleAmericanportofNewOrleans.

ThereforeBrazillacksthevolumeoftradeitwouldlikeand,equallyimportant,mostofitsgoodsaremovedalong its inadequate roads rather thanby river, thus increasing costs.On theplus side,Brazil isworkingon its transport infrastructure,andthenewlydiscoveredoffshoregas reserveswillhelp pay for this, reduce reliance on Bolivian and Venezuelan energy imports, and cushion theinevitableeconomicdipsallnationssuffer.Nevertheless,BrazilwillrequireaHerculeaneffortforittoovercomeitsgeographicaldisadvantages.

Around25percentofBraziliansare thought to live in the infamous favela slums.Whenone infourofastate’spopulationisinabjectpovertyitisdifficultforthatstatetobecomerich.ThisdoesnotmeanBrazilisnotarisingpower,justthatitsrisewillbelimited.

Ashortcuttogrowthcouldbesoftpower,henceBrazil’sefforts togainapermanentseatontheUNSecurityCouncilanditshabitofbuildingregionaleconomicalliancessuchasMercosur,whichlooselytiestogetherBrazil,Argentina,Paraguay,Uruguay,andVenezuela.Everyfewyears,oftenledbyBrazil, theSouthAmericans attempt to launch theirversionof theEU—the latest incarnationbeing UNASUR, of which twelve South American nations are members. Its headquarters are inEcuadorbutBrazilhastheloudestvoice.InthisitresemblestheEU,whichhasitsheadquartersinBelgium and a leading power in Germany. And there the comparison stops. UNASUR has animpressivepresenceontheInternetbutitremainsmoreofawebsitethananeconomicunion.TheEU countries have similar political and economic systems and most members share a currency,whereas the LatinAmericans differ in their politics, economics, currencies, education levels, andlabor laws. They also have to overcome the constraints of distance, as well as the heights of themountainsandthedensityofthejunglesthatseparatethem.

ButBrazilwillkeepworkingtohelpcreateaSouthAmericanpowerhousebyusingitsdiplomaticandincreasingeconomicstrength.Thecountryisbynaturenonconfrontational,itsforeignpolicyisagainst intervention inothercountries,andwarwithanyof itsneighbors seemshighlyunlikely. Ithasmanagedtomaintaingoodrelationswithall theotherelevenSouthAmericannationsdespitehavingaborderwithnineofthem.

There is a frontier disputewithUruguay, but it doesnot look set to become inflamed; and therivalry between Brazil and Argentina is unlikely to be played out anywhere more politicallysignificantthanasoccerfield.InrecentyearsBrazilhasmovedarmyunitsawayfromitsborderwithArgentinaandhasseenitsSpanish-speakingneighborreciprocate.AnArgentiniannavyvesselhasbeenwelcomed inaBrazilianportwhereasaBritishRoyalNavyshipwasdeniedsuchaccessa fewyearsago, thuspleasing theArgentinians in theirongoingdiplomaticbattlewith theUKover theFalklandIslands.

Brazil is included in the BRICS—a group of major countries said to be on the rise botheconomically and politically, but, while each onemay be rising individually, the concept ismorefashionthanreality.Brazil,Russia,India,China,andSouthAfricaarenotapoliticalorgeographicalgroupinginameaningfulwayandhaveverylittleincommonwithoneanother.Ifthelettershadnotspelledwhatsoundslikeaword,thentheBRICStheorywouldnothavecaughton.TheBRICSholdanannualconferenceandBrazildoessometimesliaisewithIndiaandSouthAfricaoninternationalissuesinasortofvagueechooftheColdWarnonalignedmovement,butitdoesnotjoinRussiaandChinaintakingasometimeshostilestancetowardtheUnitedStates.

TheNorthandSouthAmericangiantsdidfalloutin2013overanissuethatstillranklesinBrazil.The news that the US National Security Agency had spied on the Brazilian president, DilmaRousseff,ledhertocancelastatevisittoWashington.ThatanapologywasnotforthcomingfromtheObama administrationwas testament to the fact that theAmericans are irritated thatChina hassupplantedthemasBrazil’smaintradingpartner.Brazil’ssubsequentdecisiontobuySwedishfighterjets for its air force rather than ones from Boeing is thought to have been informed by thedisagreement. However, the state-to-state relationship has partially recovered, albeit not at thepresidential level. Confrontation is not Brazil’s style, unlike Venezuela under the late PresidentChavez.TheBraziliansknowtheworldthinkstheyareacomingpower,buttheyalsoknowthattheirpowerwillnevermatchthatoftheAmericans.

NeitherwillthatofArgentina;however,insomewaysitisbetterplacedtobecomeaFirstWorldcountrythanisBrazil.ItlacksthesizeandpopulationtobecometheprimaryregionalpowerinLatinAmerica,whichlookstobeBrazil’sdestiny,butithasthequalityoflandtocreateastandardoflivingcomparable to thatof theEuropeancountries.Thatdoesnotmean itwillachieve thispotential—simplythatifArgentinagetstheeconomicsright,itsgeographywillenableittobecomethepowerithasneverbeen.

ThefoundationsforthispotentialwerelaidinthenineteenthcenturywithmilitaryvictoriesoverBrazilandParaguaythatresultedincontroloftheflatagriculturalregionsoftheRiodelaPlata,thenavigableriversystem,andthereforethecommercethatflowsdownittowardBuenosAiresanditsport.This isamongthemostvaluablepiecesof realestateonthewholecontinent. It immediatelygave Argentina an economic and strategic advantage over Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay—one itholdstothisday.

However,Argentinahasnotalwaysuseditsadvantagestothefullest.Ahundredyearsagoitwasamongthetenrichestcountriesintheworld—aheadofFranceandItaly.Butafailuretodiversify,astratified and unfair society, a poor education system, a succession of coups d’état, and thewildly

differingeconomicpoliciesinthedemocraticperiodofthelastthirtyyearshasseenasharpdeclineinArgentina’sstatus.

TheBrazilianshave a joke about their snobbishneighbors, as they see them: “Only people thissophisticatedcouldmakeamessthisbig.”Argentinaneedstogetitright,andadeadcowmayhelpit.

TheDeadCow,orVacaMuerta,isashaleformationthat,combinedwiththecountry’sothershaleareas, could provide Argentina’s energy needs for the next 150 years with excess to export. It issituatedhalfwaydownArgentina,inPatagonia,andabutsthewesternborderwithChile.ItisthesizeofBelgium—whichmightberelativelysmallforacountrybutislargeforashaleformation.Sofarsogood,unlessyouareagainstshale-producedenergy—butthereisacatch.Togetthegasandoiloutofthe shale will require massive foreign investment, and Argentina is not considered a foreign-investment-friendlycountry.

There’smoreoilandgasfarthersouth—infact,sofarsouthit’soffshoreinandaroundislandsthatareBritishandhavebeensince1833.Andthereinliesaproblem,andanewsstorythatnevergoesaway.

WhatBritaincallstheFalklandIslandsareknownasLasMalvinasbyArgentina,andwoebetideanyArgentinewhousestheFword.ItisanoffenseinArgentinatoproduceamapthatdescribestheislands as anything other than the “IslasMalvinas,” and all primary school children are taught todrawtheoutlinesofthetwomainislands,westandeast.Toregainthe“LittleSisters”isanationalcauseforsuccessivegenerationsofArgentinesandonethatmostoftheirLatinneighborssupport.

InApril1982, theBritish let theirguarddownandtheArgentinianmilitarydictatorshipunderGeneralGaltieriorderedaninvasionoftheislands—whichwasconsideredahugesuccessuntiltheBritish task force arrived eight weeks later and made short work of the Argentinian army andreclaimedtheterritory.Thisinturnledtothefallofthedictatorship.

IftheArgentineinvasionhadhappenedinthepresentdecade,Britainwouldnothavebeeninapositiontoretaketheislands,asitcurrentlyhasnofunctioningaircraftcarriers,asituationthatwillberemediedby2020,atwhichtimeArgentina’swindowofopportunitycloses.However,despitethelureofoilandgas,anArgentinianinvasionoftheFalklandsisunlikelyfortworeasons.

First,ArgentinaisnowademocracyandknowsthatthevastmajorityofFalklandIslanderswishtoremainunderBritishcontrol;second,theBritish,oncebitten,aretwiceshy.TheymaytemporarilylackanaircraftcarriertosailtheeightthousandmilesdowntotheSouthAtlantic,buttheydonowhaveseveralhundredcombattroopsontheislands,alongwithadvancedradarsystems,ground-to-airmissiles, fourEurofighter jets, andprobably anuclear attack submarine lurkingnearbymostof thetime.TheBritish intend to prevent theArgentinians fromeven thinking they could get onto thebeaches,letalonetaketheislands.

TheArgentineairforceusesplanesthataredecadesbehindtheEurofighter,andBritishdiplomacyhasensuredthatanattemptbyArgentinatobuyup-to-datemodelsfromSpainwascalledoff.BuyingfromtheUnitedStatesisanonstarterduetotheSpecialRelationshipbetweentheUKandUnitedStates,whichisindeed,attimes,special;sothechancesofArgentinabeinginapositiontomountanotherattackbefore2020areslim.

However,thatwillnotcalmthediplomaticwar,andArgentinahassharpeneditsweaponsonthatfront.BuenosArieshaswarnedthatanyoilfirmthatdrillsintheFalklands/Malvinascannotbidforalicense to exploit the shale oil and gas inPatagonia’sVacaMuerta field. It has evenpassed a lawthreatening fines or imprisonment for individuals who explore the Falklands’ continental shelfwithout its permission. This has put many big oil companies off, but not of course the British.

However,whoeverprobesthepotentialwealthbeneaththeSouthAtlanticwaterswillbeoperatinginoneofthemostchallengingenvironmentsinthebusiness.Itgetssomewhatcoldandwindydownthere,andtheseasarerough.

We have traveled as far south as you can go before you arrive at the frozen wastelands of theAntarctic. While plenty of countries would like to exert control there, a combination of theextremely challenging environment, the Antarctic Treaty, and lack of obtainable and valuableresources together largely prevent overt competition, at least for the present.The same cannot besaidofitsnortherncounterpart.HeadingstraightupfromAntarcticatothenorthernmostpartoftheglobe, you reach a place destined to be a diplomatic battleground in the twenty-first century ascountriesgreatandsmallstrivetoreachpolepositionthere—theArctic.

10

THEARCTIC

TherearetwokindsofArcticproblems,theimaginaryandthereal.Ofthetwo,theimaginaryarethemostreal.—VilhjalmurStefansson,TheArcticinFactandFable

Whentheicemencome,theywillcomeinforce.Whohastheforce?TheRussians.Nooneelsehassuchaheavypresenceintheregionorisaswell

preparedtotackletheseverityoftheconditions.Alltheothernationsarelaggingbehindand,inthecaseoftheUnitedStates,donotappeartobeeventryingtocatchup:AmericaisanArcticnationwithoutanArcticstrategyinaregionthatisheatingup.

TheeffectsofglobalwarmingarenowshowingmorethaneverintheArctic:theiceismelting,allowing easier access to the region, coinciding with the discovery of energy deposits and thedevelopmentoftechnologytogetatthem—allofwhichhasfocusedtheArcticnations’attentiononthe potential gains and losses to bemade in theworld’smost difficult environment.Many of thecountries intheregionhavecompetingclaimsthattheyhaven’tbotheredtopress—untilnow.Butthereisalottoclaim,andalottoargueabout.

ThewordarcticcomesfromtheGreekarktikos,whichmeans“nearthebear,”andisareferencetotheUrsaMajorconstellation,whoselasttwostarspointtowardtheNorthStar.

TheArcticOceanis5.4millionsquaremiles;thismightmakeittheworld’ssmallestoceanbutitisstillalmostasbigasRussia,andoneandahalftimesthesizeoftheUnitedStates.Thecontinentalshelvesonitsoceanbedoccupymorespaceproportionallythananyotherocean,whichisoneofthereasonsitcanbehardtoagreeonareasofsovereignty.

TheArcticregionincludeslandinpartsofCanada,Finland,Greenland,Iceland,Norway,Russia,Sweden,andtheUnitedStates(Alaska).Itisalandofextremes:forbriefperiodsinthesummerthetemperaturecanreach26degreesCelsiusinsomeplaces,butforlongperiodsinwinteritplungestobelowminus45.Thereareexpansesof rock scouredby the freezingwinds, spectacular fjords,polardeserts,andevenrivers.Itisaplaceofgreathostilityandofgreatbeautythathascaptivatedpeopleformillennia.

ThefirstrecordedexpeditionwasbyaGreekmarinernamedPytheasofMassaliain330BCEwhofoundastrangelandcalledThule.BackhomeintheMediterranean,fewbelievedhisstartlingtalesofpurewhitelandscapes,frozenseas,andstrangecreatures,includinggreatwhitebears;butPytheaswasjustthefirstofmanypeopleoverthecenturiestorecordthewonderoftheArcticandtosuccumbtotheemotionsitevokes.

Manyalsosuccumbedtoitsdeprivations,especiallythosevoyagingtotheedgeoftheknownworldin search of what doubters said was the “mythical” Northwest Passage from the Atlantic to thePacificOcean.One example isHenryHudson.Hemay have the second-largest bay in the worldnamedafterhim,butbackin1607heprobablywouldhavepreferredtohavelivedintooldagerather

thanbeingcastadriftandalmostcertainlysenttohisdeathbyamutinouscrewsickofhisvoyagesofdiscovery.

AsforthefirstpersontoreachtheNorthPole,well,that’satrickyone,giventhateventhoughthere is a fixed point on the globe denoting its position, below it, the ice you are standing on ismoving, andwithoutGPS equipment it is hard to tell exactlywhere you are. SirWilliamEdwardParry,minusaGPS,triedin1827,buttheicewasmovingsouthfasterthanhecouldmovenorthandheendedupgoingbackward;buthedidatleastsurvive.

CaptainSirJohnFranklinhadlessluckwhenheattemptedtocrossthelastnon-navigatedsectionoftheNorthwestPassagein1848.HistwoshipsbecamestuckintheicenearKingWilliamIslandintheCanadian archipelago.All 129members of the expedition perished, some on board the ships,others after theyabandoned thevessels andbeganwalking south.Several expeditionswere sent tosearchforsurvivors,buttheyfoundonlyahandfulofskeletonsandheardstoriesfromInuithuntersabout dozens of white men who had died walking through the frozen landscape. The ships hadvanishedcompletely,butin2014,technologycaughtupwithgeographyandaCanadiansearchteamusing sonar located one of the vessels,HMSErebus, on the seabed of theNorthwest Passage andbroughtuptheship’sbell.

The fateofFranklin’sexpeditiondidnotdetermanymoreadventurers fromtrying to find theirway through the archipelago, but it wasn’t until 1905 that the great Norwegian explorer RoaldAmundsenchartedhiswayacrossinasmallershipwithjustfiveothercrew.HepassedKingWilliamIsland,wentthroughtheBeringStraitandintothePacific.Heknewhe’dmadeitwhenhespottedawhaling ship from San Francisco coming from the other direction. In his diary he confessed hisemotionsgotthebetterofhim,anoccurrenceperhapsalmostasrareashisgreatachievement:“TheNorthwestPassagewasdone.Myboyhooddream—at thatmoment itwasaccomplished.A strangefeelingwelledupinmythroat;Iwassomewhatoverstrainedandworn—itwasweaknessinme—butIfelttearsinmyeyes.”

Twentyyears later,hedecidedhewantedtobethe firstmanto flyovertheNorthPole,which,althougheasierthanwalkingacrossit,isnomeanfeat.AlongwithhisItalianpilot,UmbertoNobile,and fourteen crew, he flew a semirigid airship over the ice and dropped Norwegian, Italian, andAmericanflagsfromaheightofthreehundredfeet.Aheroiceffortthismayhavebeen,butinthetwenty-firstcenturyitwasnotseenasonegivingmuchlegalbasistoanyclaimsofownershipoftheregionbythosethreecountries.

ThatalsoappliestotheimpressiveeffortofShinjiKazamaofJapan,whoin1987becamethefirstpersontoreachtheNorthPoleonamotorcycle.Mr.Kazamawassointrepidasnottohavereliedonashrinkingpolaricecap,andisthesortofmanwhowouldhaveriddenthroughablizzardinordertogetintothehistorybooks,butthereisnodoubtthatthereisnowlessicetocross.

Thattheice is recedingisnot inquestion—satellite imagingoverthepastdecadeclearlyshowsthat the ice has shrunk—only the cause is in doubt. Most scientists are convinced that man isresponsible,notmerelynaturalclimatecycles,andthatthecomingexploitationofwhatisunveiledwillquickenthepace.

AlreadyvillagesalongtheBeringandChukchicoastshavebeenrelocated,ascoastlinesareerodedandhuntinggroundslost.Abiologicalreshuffleisunderway.PolarbearsandArcticfoxesareonthemove,walrusesfindthemselvescompetingforspace,andfish,unawareofterritorialboundaries,aremovingnorthward,depletingstocksforsomecountriesbutpopulatingothers.MackerelandAtlanticcodarenowbeingfoundinArctictrawlernets.

ItisclearfromsatelliteimagesthattheiceintheArcticisreceding,makingthesea-lanesthroughtheregionmoreaccessibleforlongerperiodsoftheyear.

The effects of the melting ice won’t just be felt in the Arctic: countries as far away as theMaldives,Bangladesh,andtheNetherlandsareatriskofincreasedfloodingastheicemeltsandsealevelsrise.TheseramificationsarewhytheArcticisaglobal,notjustaregional,issue.

As the ice melts and the tundra is exposed, two things are likely to happen to accelerate theprocessofthegrayingoftheicecap.Residuefromtheindustrialworkdestinedtotakeplacewilllandon the snow and ice, further reducing the amount of heat-reflecting territory. The darker-coloredlandandopenwaterwillthenabsorbmoreheatthantheiceandsnowtheyreplace,thusincreasingthesizeof thedarkerterritory.This isknownasthealbedoeffect,andalthoughtherearenegativeaspects to it therearealsopositiveones: thewarmingtundrawillallowsignificantlymorenatural-plant growth and agricultural crops to flourish, helping local populations as they seek new foodsources.

There is, though,nogettingaway fromtheprospect thatoneof theworld’s last greatunspoiledregionsisabouttochange.Someclimate-predictionmodelssaytheArcticwillbeice-freeduringthesummerbytheendofthecentury;thereareafewthatpredictitcouldhappenmuchsooner.Whatiscertainisthat,howeverquicklyithappensanddramaticthereductionwillbe,ithasbegun.

ThemeltingoftheicecapalreadyallowscargoshipstomakethejourneythroughtheNorthwestPassage in theCanadianarchipelago for several summerweeks a year, thus cutting at least aweekfromthetransittimefromEuropetoChina.Thefirstcargoshipnottobeescortedbyanicebreakerwentthroughin2014.TheNunavikcarriedtwenty-threethousandtonsofnickelorefromCanadato

China.Thepolarroutewas40percentshorteranduseddeeperwatersthanifithadgonethroughthePanamaCanal.Thisallowed the ship tocarrymorecargo, save tensof thousandsofdollars in fuelcosts, and reduced the ship’s greenhouse emissions by 1,300 metric tons. By 2040, the route isexpectedtobeopenforuptotwomonthseachyear,transformingtradelinksacrosstheHighNorthandcausingknock-oneffectsas farawayasEgyptandPanama in termsof the revenues theyenjoyfromtheSuezandPanamaCanals.

The northeast route, or Northern Sea Route as the Russians call it, which hugs the Siberiancoastline, is also now open for severalmonths a year and is becoming an increasingly popular seahighway.

Themeltingicerevealsotherpotentialriches. It is thoughtthatvastquantitiesofundiscoverednaturalgasandoilreservesmaylieintheArcticregioninareasthatcannowbeaccessed.In2009,theUSGeologicalSurveyestimatedthat1,669trillioncubicfeetofnaturalgas,44billionbarrelsofnaturalgasliquids,and90billionbarrelsofoilareintheArctic,withthevastmajorityofitoffshore.Asmoreterritorybecomesaccessible,extrareservesofthegold,zinc,nickel,andironalready foundinpartoftheArcticmaybediscovered.

ExxonMobil, Shell, andRosneft are among the energy giants that are applying for licenses andbeginning exploratory drilling.Countries and companies prepared tomake the effort to get at thericheswillhavetobraveaclimatewhereformuchoftheyearthedaysareendlessnight,whereforthemajorityoftheyeartheseafreezestoadepthofmorethansixfeet,andwhere,inopenwater,thewavescanreachfortyfeethigh.

Itisgoingtobedirty,hard,anddangerouswork,especiallyforanyonehopingtorunayear-roundoperation.Itwillalsorequiremassiveinvestment.Runninggaspipelineswillnotbepossibleinmanyplaces, andbuilding a complex liquefaction infrastructure at sea, especially in tough conditions, isveryexpensive.However,thefinancialandstrategicgainstobemademeanthatthebigplayerswilltry to stake a claim to the territories and begin drilling, and that the potential environmentalconsequencesareunlikelytostopthem.

The claims to sovereignty are not based on the flags of the early explorers but on theUnitedNations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). This affirms that a signatory to theconvention has exclusive economic rights from its shore to a limit of two hundred nauticalmiles(unlessthisconflictswithanothercountry’s limits),andcandeclare itanexclusiveeconomiczone(EEZ). The oil and gas in the zone are therefore considered to belong to the state. In certaincircumstances, and subject to scientific evidence concerning a country’s continental shelf, thatcountrycanapplytoextendtheEEZto350nauticalmilesfromitscoast.

ThemeltingoftheArcticiceisbringingwithitahardeningofattitudefromtheeightmembersoftheArcticCouncil,theforumwheregeopoliticsbecomesgeopolarctics.

The“ArcticFive,”thosestateswithbordersontheArctic,areCanada,Russia,theUnitedStates,Norway,andDenmark(duetoitsresponsibilityforGreenland).TheyarejoinedbyIceland,Finland,andSweden,whicharealsofullmembers.TherearetwelveothernationswithPermanentObserverstatus, having recognized the “Arctic States’ sovereignty, sovereign rights, and jurisdiction” in theregion,amongothercriteria.Forexample,atthe2013ArcticCouncil,JapanandIndia,whichhavesponsoredArcticscientificexpeditions,andChina,whichhasasciencebaseonaNorwegianislandaswellasamodernicebreaker,weregrantedObserverstatus.

However, there are countries not on the council that say they have legitimate interests in theregion, and stillmore that argue that under the theory of the “commonheritage ofmankind” theArcticshouldbeopentoeveryone.

TherearecurrentlyatleastninelegaldisputesandclaimsoversovereigntyintheArcticOcean,all legallycomplicated,andsomewiththepotential tocauseserious tensionsbetweenthenations.OneofthemostbrazencomesfromtheRussians:Moscowhasalreadyputamarkerdown—alongwaydown. In2007, it sent twomanned submersibles 13,980 feet below thewaves to the seabedof theNorthPoleandplanteda rust-proof titaniumRussian flagas a statementof ambition.As far as isknown,itstill“flies”downtheretoday.ARussianthinktankfollowedthisupbysuggestingthattheArcticberenamed.Afternotmuchthought,theycameupwithanalternative:“theRussianOcean.”

Elsewhere, Russia argues that the Lomonosov Ridge off its Siberian coast is an extension ofSiberia’scontinentalshelf,andthereforebelongstoRussiaexclusively.Thisisproblematicforothercountries,giventhattheridgeextendsallthewaytotheNorthPole.

RussiaandNorwayhaveparticulardifficultyintheBarentsSea.NorwayclaimstheGakkelRidgeintheBarentsasanextensionofitsEconomicExclusionZone(EEZ),buttheRussiansdisputethis,andtheyhaveaparticulardisputeovertheSvalbardIslands,thenorthernmostpointonearthwithasettled population. Most countries and international organizations recognize the islands as beingunder (limited) Norwegian sovereignty, but the biggest island, Svalbard, formerly known asSpitsbergen, has a growing population of Russian migrants who have assembled around the coal-mining industry there.Theminesarenotprofitable,but theRussiancommunity servesas ausefultool infurtheringMoscow’sclaimsonallof theSvalbardIslands.Ata timeofRussia’schoosing itcanraisetensionsandjustifyitsactionsusinggeologicalclaimsandthe“factsontheground”oftheRussianpopulation.

Norway,aNATOstate,knowswhat is comingandhasmade theHighNorth its foreignpolicypriority.ItsairforceregularlyinterceptsRussianfighterjetsapproachingitsborders;theheightenedtensionshavecausedittomoveitscenterofmilitaryoperationsfromthesouthofthecountrytothenorth, and it is building an Arctic battalion. Canada is reinforcing its cold-weather militarycapabilities, which includes five new navy warships with moderate ice-breaking capability to bedeliveredbetween2018and2022.Announcing the increase in the springof 2015,PrimeMinisterStephenHarper said, “Canada has a choice when it comes to defending our sovereignty over theArctic.Weeitheruseitorloseit.”DenmarkhasalsoreactedtoMoscow’smuscleflexingbycreatinganArcticResponseForce.

Russiameanwhile is building anArctic army.Sixnewmilitary bases are being constructed andseveral mothballed Cold War installations—such as those on the Novosibirsk Islands—arereopening,andairstripsarebeingrenovated.Aforceofatleastsixthousandcombatsoldiersisbeingreadied for theMurmansk regionandwill include twomechanized infantrybrigadesequippedwithsnowmobilesandhovercraft.

It is no coincidence that Murmansk is now called Russia’s northern energy gateway and thatPresidentPutinhassaidthat,inrelationtoenergysupply,“Offshorefields,especiallyintheArctic,arewithoutanyexaggerationourstrategicreserveforthetwenty-firstcentury.”

The Murmansk brigades will be Moscow’s minimum permanent Arctic force, but Russiademonstrated its full cold-weather fighting ability in 2014with an exercise that involved 155,000menand thousandsof tanks, jets, and ships.TheRussianDefenseMinistry said itwasbigger thanexercisesithadcarriedoutduringtheColdWar.

Duringthewargames,Russiantroopsweretaskedwithrepellingan invasionbya foreignpowernamed“Missouri,”whichclearlysignifiedtheUnitedStates.Thescenariowasthat“Missouri”troopshadlandedinChukotka,Kamchatka,theKurils,andSakhalininsupportofanunnamedAsianpowerthathadalreadyclashedwithRussia.TheunnamedpowerwasJapan,andthescenario’sconflictwas

provoked by a territorial dispute said by analysts to be over the SouthKuril Islands.Themilitarydisplayof intentwas thenunderlinedpoliticallywhenPresidentPutin for the first timeadded theArcticregionasasphereofRussianinfluenceinitsofficialforeignpolicydoctrine.

Despite Russia’s shrinking economic power, resulting in budget cuts in many governmentdepartments, its defense budget has increased and this is partially to pay for the boost in Arcticmilitarymuscletakingplacebetweennowand2020.Moscowhasplansforthefuture,infrastructurefromthepast,andtheadvantageof location.AsMelissaBert,aUSCoastGuardcaptain,toldtheCenterforStrategicandInternationalStudiesinWashington,DC:“TheyhavecitiesintheArctic,weonlyhavevillages.”

All this is, in many ways, a continuation, or at the least a resurrection, of Russia’s Cold WarArcticpolicies.TheRussiansknowthatNATOcanbottleup theirBalticFleetbyblockading theSkagerrak Strait. This potential blockade is complicated by the fact that up in the Arctic theirNorthernFleethasonly180milesofopenwaterfromtheKolacoastlineuntilithitstheArcticicepack.FromthisnarrowcorridoritmustalsocomedownthroughtheNorwegianSeaandthenrunthepotentialgauntletoftheGIUKgaptoreachtheAtlanticOcean.DuringtheColdWar,theareawasknownbyNATOastheKillZone,asthiswaswhereNATO’splanes,ships,andsubmarinesexpectedtocatchtheSovietfleet.

Fast-forwardtothenewcoldwarandthestrategiesremainthesame,evenifnowtheAmericanshavewithdrawntheir forcesfromtheirNATOallyIceland.Icelandhasnoarmedforcesof itsownand theAmerican withdrawal was described by the Icelandic government as “short-sighted.” In aspeechtotheSwedishAtlanticCouncil,Iceland’sJusticeMinisterBjörnBjarnasonsaid:“Acertainmilitarypresenceshouldbemaintainedintheregion,sendingasignalaboutanation’sinterestsandambitions in a given area, since a military vacuum could be misinterpreted as a lack of nationalinterestandpriority.”

However,foratleastadecadenow,ithasbeenclearthattheArcticisapriorityfortheRussiansinawayitisnotfortheAmericans.Thisisreflectedinthedegreeofattentiongiventotheregionbybothcountries,orinthecaseoftheUnitedStates,itsrelativeinattentionsincethecollapseoftheSovietUnion.

Ittakesupto$1billionandtenyearstobuildanicebreaker.RussiaisclearlytheleadingArcticpowerwiththelargestfleetoficebreakersintheworld,thirty-twointotal,accordingtotheUSCoastGuardReviewof2013.Sixof those arenuclear-powered, theonly suchversions in theworld, andRussia alsoplans to launch theworld’smost powerful icebreaker by 2018. Itwill be able to smashthrough ice more than ten feet deep and tow oil tankers with a displacement of up to seventythousandtonsthroughtheicefields.

Bycontrast,theUnitedStateshasafleetofonefunctioningheavyicebreaker,theUSCGCPolarStar,downfromtheeightitpossessedinthe1960s,andhasnoplanstobuildanother.In2012,ithadtorelyonaRussianshiptoresupplyitsresearchbaseinAntarctica,whichwasatriumphforgreat-power cooperation, but simultaneously a demonstration of how far behind the United States hasfallen.Noothernationpresentsachallenge,either:Canadahassixicebreakersandisbuildinganewone;Finlandhaseight;Sweden,seven;andDenmark, four.China,Germany,andNorwayhaveoneeach.

TheUnitedStateshasanotherproblem.IthasnotratifiedtheUNCLOStreaty,effectivelycedingtwohundred thousand squaremiles of undersea territory in theArctic because ithasnot staked aclaimforanEEZ.

Nevertheless, it is in dispute with Canada over potential offshore oil rights and access to thewatersintheCanadianarchipelago.Canadasaystheyarean“internalwaterway,”theUnitedStatessaystheyareastraitforinternationalnavigationnotgovernedbyCanadianlaw.In1985,theUnitedStatessentanicebreakerthroughthewaterswithoutinformingCanadainadvance,causingafuriousrowtobreakoutbetweenthetwoneighborswhoserelationshipissimultaneouslyfriendlybutprickly.

TheUnitedStatesisalsoindisputewithRussiaovertheBeringSea,ArcticOcean,andnorthernPacific.A 1990Maritime BoundaryAgreement was signedwith the then SovietUnion in whichMoscow ceded a fishing region.However, following the breakup of theSovietUnion, theRussianparliament refuses to ratify the agreement. The area is treated by both sides as being under USsovereignty,buttheRussiansreservetherighttoreturntothisissue.

Otherdisputes include theonebetweenCanada andDenmarkoverHans Island, located in theNares Strait, which separatesGreenland fromEllesmere Island.Greenland,with its population offifty-six thousand people, has self-government but remains under Danish sovereignty. A 1953agreement between Denmark and Canada left the island still in dispute, and since then bothcountrieshavetakenthetroubletosailtoitandplanttheirnationalflagsonit.

Allthesovereigntyissuesstemfromthesamedesiresandfears—thedesiretosafeguardroutesformilitaryandcommercialshipping,thedesiretoownthenaturalrichesoftheregion,andthefearthatothersmaygainwhereyoulose.Until recentlytherichesweretheoretical,butthemelting icehasmadethetheoreticalprobable,andinsomecasescertain.

Themelting of the ice changes the geography and the stakes. TheArctic states and the giantenergy firms nowhave decisions tomake about how they dealwith these changes and howmuchattentiontheypaytotheenvironmentandthepeoplesoftheArctic.Thehungerforenergysuggeststhe race is inevitable inwhat someArctic specialistshavecalled theNewGreatGame.TherearegoingtobealotmoreshipsintheHighNorth,alotmoreoilrigsandgasplatforms—infact,alotmore of everything. The Russians not only have their nuclear-powered icebreakers, but are evenconsideringbuildinga floatingnuclearpowerplantcapableofwithstanding thecrushingweightoftenfeetofice.

However, there are differences between this situation and the “scramble for Africa” in thenineteenth century or the machinations of the great powers in the Middle East, India, andAfghanistan in the originalGreatGame.This race has rules, a formula, and a forum for decisionmaking.TheArcticCounciliscomposedofmaturecountries,mostofthemdemocratictoagreaterorlesserdegree.Theinternationallawsregulatingterritorialdisputes,environmentalpollution,lawsof thesea,andtreatmentofminoritypeoplesare inplace.Mostof the territory indisputehasnotbeenconqueredthroughnineteenth-centuryimperialismorbynationstatesatwarwithoneanother.

The Arctic states know that theirs is a tough neighborhood, not so much because of warringfactionsbutbecauseofthechallengespresentedbyitsgeography.TherearefiveandahalfmillionsquaremilesofoceanupintheArctic;theycanbedark,dangerous,anddeadly.Itisnotagoodplaceto be without friends. They know that for anyone to succeed in the region they may need tocooperate, especially on issues such as fishing stocks, smuggling, terrorism, search and rescue, andenvironmentaldisasters.

Itisplausiblethatadisagreementoverfishingrightscouldescalateintosomethingmoreserious,giventhattheUKandIcelandalmostcametoblowsduringthe“CodWars”ofthe1950sand1970s.Smugglingoccurswherevertherearetransitroutes,andthereisnoreasontobelievetheArcticwillbeanydifferent;butpolicingitwillbedifficultduetotheconditionsthere.Andasmorecommercialvesselsandcruiseshipsheadintothearea,thesearch-and-rescueandantiterrorismcapabilitiesofthe

Arctic nations will need to grow accordingly, as will their capacity to react to an environmentaldisaster in increasingly crowded waters. In the 1960s, the icebreakerLenin had an accident in itsreactor while at sea. After returning to shore, parts of the reactor were cut out and, along withdamaged fuel,placed inaconcretecontainerwitha steel liner thatwas thendumped intothesea.Such incidents are likely to occur more frequently as the Arctic opens up, but they will remaindifficulttomanage.

Perhaps theArcticwill turnout tobe justanotherbattleground for thenationstates—afterall,warsarestartedbyfearoftheotheraswellasbygreed;buttheArcticisdifferent,andsoperhapshowitisdealtwithwillbedifferent.Ourhistoryhasshownustherapaciouswayofthezero-sumgame.Arguably,abelief inpartialgeographicdeterminism,coupledwithhumannature,made itdifficultfor it to have been any otherway.However, there are examples of how technology has helped usbreakoutfromtheprisonofgeography,thattechnologywasmadebyus,and,inournewlyglobalizedworld,canbeusedtogiveusanopportunityintheArctic.Wecanovercometherapacioussideofournature,andgettheGreatGamerightforthebenefitofall.

CONCLUSION

Wefinishedatthetopoftheworldandsotheonlywayisup.Thefinalfrontierhasalwayscalledouttoourimagination,butoursistheageinwhichhumanity

haslivedthedreamandpushedoutintospace,amillimeterintoinfinity,onourwaytothefuture.Humanity’srestlessspiritensuresthatourboundariesarenotconfinedtowhatCarlSaganfamouslycalledthe“PaleBlueDot.”

But we must come back down to earth, sometimes with a bump, because we have neitherconqueredourowngeographyyetnorourpropensitytocompeteforit.

Geographyhasalwaysbeenaprisonofsorts—onethatdefineswhatanationisorcanbe,andonefromwhichourworldleadershaveoftenstruggledtobreakfree.

Russia isprobably theclearestexample,naturallyexpanding fromthesmall regionof flatland itcontrolleduntil itsheartlandcovered ahuge space ringedmostlybymountains and the sea—withjustonevulnerablepointacrosstheNorthEuropeanPlain.IftheRussianleaderswantedtocreateagreat nation, which they did, then they had little choice as to what to do about that weak spot.Likewise, inEuropenoconsciousdecisionwasmadetobecomeahugetradingarea; the long, levelnetworksofriversmadeitpossible,andtoanextentinevitable,overthecourseofmillennia.

As the twenty-first century progresses, the geographical factors that havehelped determine ourhistorywillmostlycontinuetodetermineourfuture:acenturyfromnow,Russiawillstillbelookinganxiouslywestwardacrosswhatwill remain flatland. IndiaandChinawill stillbe separatedby theHimalayas.Theymayeventuallycomeintoconflictwitheachother,but if thatdoeshappen,thengeographywilldeterminethenatureofthefight:eithertheywillneedtodeveloptechnologytoallowa hugemilitary force to cross over themountains, or, if that remains impossible and neither sidewantstodescendintonuclearwar,toconfronteachotheratsea.FloridawillcontinuetoguardtheexitofandentrancetotheGulfofMexico.ItistheGulf’slocationthatiskey,notwhocontrolsit.Totakeanextremeandunlikelyscenario:imagineamajorityHispanicFloridahassecededfromtheUnitedStates and allied itselfwithCuba andMexico.Thiswould alter only thedynamicsofwhocontrolledtheGulf,nottheimportanceofthelocation.

Ofcourse,geographydoesnotdictate thecourseofallevents.Great ideasandgreat leadersarepartofthepushandpullofhistory.Buttheymustalloperatewithintheconfinesofgeography.TheleadersofBangladeshmightdreamofpreventingthewatersfromfloodinguptheBayofBengal,buttheyknowthat80percentofthecountryisonafloodplainandcannotbemoved.It isapointtheScandinavian and English leader King Canute made to his sycophantic courtiers in the eleventhcentury,whenorderingthewavestoretreat:nature,orGod,wasgreaterthananyman.InBangladeshallthatcanbedoneistoreacttotherealitiesofnature:buildmoreflooddefensesandhopethatthecomputermodelingofrisingwatersduetoglobalwarmingisoverstated.

New geographical realities such as climate change present new opportunities and challenges.Globalwarmingmaywellresult inthemassmovementofpeople.IftheMaldives,andmanyother

islands,reallyaredestinedtobelosttothewaves,theimpactwillnotjustbeonthoseleavingbeforeit is too latebutalsouponthecountriestowhichthey flee. If the floodingofBangladeshbecomesworse, the future of the country and its 160 million people is dire; if the water levels rise muchhigher,thisimpoverishedcountrymaygounder.AndifthedesertificationofthelandsjustbelowtheSahel continues, then wars such as the one in Darfur, Sudan (partially caused by the desertencroachingonnomadsinthenorth,whichinturnpushedthemsouthwardtowardtheFurpeople),willintensifyandspread.

Water wars are another potential problem. Even if stable democracies were to emerge in theMiddleEast in thecomingdecades, if thewatersof theMuratRiver,which rises inTurkeybeforefeedingtheEuphrates,weretodiminishconsiderably,thenthedamsTurkeywouldhavetobuildtoprotectitsownsourceoflifecouldquiteeasilybethecauseofwarwithSyriaandIraqdownstream.

Looking further ahead, as we continue to break out of the prison of our geography into theuniverse,thepoliticalstruggleswillpersistinspace,atleastfortheforeseeablefuture.

Ahumanbeingfirstburstthroughthetoplayerofthestratospherein1961whentwenty-seven-year-oldSovietcosmonautYuriGagarinmadeitintospaceaboardVostok1.ItisasadreflectiononhumanitythatthenameofafellowRussiannamedKalashnikovisfarbetterknown.

Gagarin,BuzzAldrin,andmanyothersarethedescendantsofMarcoPoloandColumbus,pioneerswhopushedtheboundariesandwhochangedtheworldinwaystheycouldnothaveimaginedintheirownlifetimes.Whether forbetterorworse isnotthepoint; theydiscoverednewopportunitiesandnewspaces inwhichpeoplewouldcompetetomakethemostofwhatnaturehadputthere. Itwilltake generations, but in space, too,wewill plant our flags, “conquer” territory, claim ground, andovercomethebarrierstheuniverseputsinourway.

Therearenowabout1,100functioningsatellitesinspace,andatleast2,000nonfunctioningones.TheRussiansandAmericanslaunchedapproximately2,400ofthetotal,Japanhasabout100,Chinaa similar number, followed by a host of other countries with far fewer. Below them are the spacestations,whereforthefirsttimepeopleliveandworksemipermanentlyoutsidetheconfinesofearth’sgravity.Fartheron,atleastfiveAmericanflagsarethoughttobestillstandingonthesurfaceofthemoon, and farther still,much farther, ourmachineshavemade it outpastMars and Jupiter, someheadingwaybeyondwhatwecanseeandaretryingtounderstand.

It is tempting to think of our endeavors in space as linking humanity to a collective andcooperativefuture.Butfirsttherewillcontinuetobecompetitionforsupremacyinouterspace.ThesatellitesarenotjusttheretobeambackourTVpictures,ortopredicttheweather:theyalsospyonother countries, to see who ismovingwhere andwithwhat. In addition,America and China areengagedindevelopinglasertechnology,whichcanbeusedasweapons,andbothseektoensurethattheyhaveamissilesystemthatcanoperateinspaceandnullifythecompetition’sversion.Manyofthe technologically advanced nations are now making preparations in case they need to fight inspace.

Whenweare reaching for the stars, thechallengesaheadare such thatwewillperhapshave tocome together tomeet them: to travel theuniversenotasRussians,Americans,orChinesebutasrepresentativesofhumanity.Butsofar,althoughwehavebrokenfreefromtheshacklesofgravity,wearestillimprisonedinourownminds,confinedbyoursuspicionofthe“other,”andthusourprimalcompetitionforresources.Thereisalongwaytogo.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

Manythankstoallthosewhofreelygaveoftheirtime,advice,andencouragement.Iwould like to thankmywife, Joanna, for her patience andnatural spell-check abilities; Pippa

CraneandJennieCondellatElliottandThompsonforgivingshapeanddirectiontomygeographicwanderings;andOllieDewisforherencouragementandideas.

I am grateful to the following for casting their experienced eyes over sections of the book andwould like to reiterate that any errors contained therein are my doing and responsibility: JamesRichards (former official Chinese interpreter to the UK government, chairman of ChinaAssociation), Professor James D. Boys (Visiting Senior Research Fellow, King’s College London),David Slinn (former UK ambassador to North Korea), Joel Richards MA (South Americanspecialist),KelvinO’Shea(SkyNews),TimMiller(SkyNews),JaksaScekic(Reuters,Belgrade),andAleksanderVasca(Reuters,Belgrade).

ThankstoScribnereditorColinHarrisonforguidanceandremindingmethattheUSandUKaretwo countries separated by a common language, and to Katrina Diaz at Scribner, whose lines ofcommunicationbridgedtheAtlanticOcean.

Also,thankstothoseservingmembersofgovernmentsandthecivilservicewhokindlygavemetheirexpertise,butpreferredittobeusedwithoutattribution.

ABOUTTHEAUTHOR

©JOLLYTHOMPSON

TimMarshall is a former foreign correspondent forBritain’s SkyNews television.He is a leadingauthority on foreign affairs and has reported from thirty countries, including the wars inCroatia,Bosnia,Macedonia,Kosovo,Afghanistan,andIraq.Morerecently,hecoveredwhatheconsiderstobe themisnamed “Arab Spring,” reporting from Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Lebanon, and Syria. Aftertwenty-fiveyearsoffrontlinereporting,henoweditsthewebsitethewhatandthewhy.comandlivesinLondon.

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INDEX

Anoteabouttheindex:Thepagesreferencedinthisindexrefertothepagenumbersintheprintedition.Clickingonapagenumberwilltakeyoutotheebooklocationthatcorrespondstothebeginningofthatpageintheprintedition.Foracomprehensivelistoflocationsofanywordorphrase,useyourreadingsystem’ssearchfunction.

Note:Italicizedpagenumbersindicatemaps.

Abbottabad,185–86Abkhazia,29,31,107Adams,Henry,68Adams,JohnQuincy,69–70AdriaticSea,91AegeanSea,22,86–87,93–94,163–64Afghanistan,8–9,16,36–37,46,77,102,133,158,168–69,174,175,176,179,180–84,181

artificialbordersin,181,181–82herointrade,224–25NATOtroopsin,182–87NorthernAlliance(NA)troopsin,4–5Sovietinvasion(1979),18–19,177,181Taliban,181–87,188andtheUnitedStates,84

Africa,109,110–32.Seealsonamesofspecificcountriesartificialbordersin,6,109,115–20,136andChina,60–61,84,119,122,125,126–31civilwarsandethnicconflicts,116–20,123–29climateandterrain,110–14,115,120–22,129,131–32colonialperiod,115–20,123,125andCuba,125–26energyresources,60,121,122–23,125–27,131–32Homosapiensorigins,110,112,118independencemovement,116Islamists,117,121,123–25,128–29isolationof,6,110–11,114–15languages,113–14,118,131–32naturalresources,60,114,118–23,125–29,131–32rivers,109,113–14,115,120–22,131–32andRussia,34,125–26size,111–13andtheUnitedStates,84

aircraftcarrierbattlegroups,7,38–39AksaiChin,36–37,46Alaska,8–9,16–17,72,174,240–41,243,246Alawites,144–45,160Albania,3–4,14,20–21,86–87,91,98albedoeffect,247Aldrin,Buzz,262AlexandertheGreat,5,139Algeria,136Ali(sonofMuhammad),137,138,144Alps,86–87,89,91

al-Qaeda,4–5,146–47,151,182,183,185,188Amazonrainforest,118,215,231AmazonRiver,215,218,231–32AmericanRevolutionaryWar(1775–83),66–67Amman,133,141,142,153,156Amundsen,Roald,244–45AnatolianPlain,161AndamanSea,168–69AndesMountains,215,218–19Angola,60,109,112,116,118,119–20,125–28,130Antarctic,238–39AppalachianMountains,62–63,65,66–68Aqaba,153ArabianDesert,135ArabianSea,133,168–69,171,176,179,181ArabSpring,43,164–67Arctic/ArcticCircle,8–9,240–41,242–57

climateandterrain,243energyresources,6–7,34,72,242,248–49,251,254,255–57expeditions,243–45globalwarmingeffects,242,245–48,246,255,261icebreakers,253–54NewGreatGame,255–57andRussia,6,15,16,19,243,249,250–57sovereigntydisputes,250–57andtheUnitedStates,243,249,253–54

ArcticCouncil,249,255–56ArcticOcean,240–41,243,250,254ArcticSea,8–9,15Argentina,215,217,220,221,229,232,233–34,235–38Arizona,62–63,71,222Armenia,8–9,20,29,31,86–87,133,141,158Armitage,Richard,183ArunachalPradesh,46,189–90Assad,Basharal-,145Assad,Hafezal-,145Assam,176,178,190AtacamaDesert,215Atatürk,162,164AtlanticOcean,62–63,86–87,109,110–11,114,215,246Australia,5,76,79Austria,32,86–87,91Azerbaijan,8–9,18,20,29,133,141

BaffinIsland,240–41Baghdad,150Bahamas,62–63Bahrain,7,78,82–83,133Balboa,VascoNúñezde,226Balkanstates,3–4,97–98BalticSea,8–9,12,23,28,32,86–87,96,107BalticStates,8–9,14,16,18,20–21,27–29,31,86–87,200Baluchistan,168–69,171,175,176,177,187Bangladesh,36–37,60,168–69,171–74,176,260–61BanksIsland,240–41BarentsSea,8–9,240–41,246,250–51Bashir,Omaral-,128Basra,139,141BayofBengal,36–37,60,168–69,171–72,176,192,260Bedouins,142

Beijing,36–37Belarus,8–9,20,32,86–87BelearicIslands,86–87Belgium,86–87,118Belize,221,223,226Benghazi,116–17BeringSea,8–9,11–12,245,254BeringStrait,8–9,16–17,219,240–41,244BerlinWall,14Bert,Melissa,252Bessarabia,30Bhutan,36–37,168–69,171,176,190Bhutto,Benazir,183binLaden,Osama,185,188Bismarck,Ottovon,85,97–98Bjarnason,Björn,253BlackSea,8–9,15,16,23,30,32,86–87,90,91,133,163BokoHaram/WilayatalSudanalGharbi,123–25Bolivar,Simón,220Bolivia,215,220–21Borneo,55Bosnia-Herzegovina,3,86–87,91Bosporus,22,23,163–64Botswana,109,130BrahmaputraRiver,172Brasilia,232Brazil,83,215,217,218,220,229,231–35,236BrazilianShield,232–33BRICS(Brazil,Russia,China,andSouthAfrica),235Brunei,55,58BuenosAires,233,236Bulgaria,14,20–21,29,32,86–87,90,91,98,133Burma,36–37,42,46,60,78,168–69,171,172,176,190,191,209Burundi,109,119,120,131Bush,GeorgeW.,4,187Byrnes,James,199

California,62–63,67,69,70–72,222Cambodia,55Cameroon,109,124,125Canada

andArctic/ArcticCircle,240–41,243,246,251,254–55andtheUnitedStates,62–63,65,66

CanadianShield,65Canute,King,260–61CapeHorn,215,218CapeofGoodHope,109,111,130CaribbeanSea,59–60,72–73,83,215,226CarpathianMountains,8–9,12,16,29,30,86–87,91,96,107Carter,Ash,58–59CaspianSea,8–9,15,16,133,141,158,177CatherinetheGreat,15–16,25–26Caucasus,15,16,29,31CelebesSea,55CentralAfricanRepublic,109,112,119CentralAmerica,215,218,221–22,226,226–31.SeealsoLatinAmericaandnamesofspecificcountriesCentralAmericanFreeTradeAgreement,230Cerrado,215Cha,Victor,202Chad,109,112,116–17,125

CharlesXIII,13CharlieHebdomassacre(2015),106Chechnya,15,18,29,183ChiangKai-shek,43Chile,215,217,218,220–21,230–32,232China,8–9,36–37,38–61,55,168–69,171,193

andAfrica,60–61,84,119,122,125,126–31AirDefenseIdentificationZone,56–57,81–82,211annexationofTibet,7,41,43–44,46–50,51,178,188–90andArctic/ArcticCircle,249asBRICScountry,235deep-waterportinvestments,60energyresources,50,56–58,60,81,82–83andIndia,2–3,46–49,178,188–91,260andJapan,43,55–56,206,209–13andKorea,194–96,198–200,203–4landreclamation,58–59languages,40,50–51lasertechnology,262–63andLatinAmerica,83,226,227–29,230–31,235navalcapacity,6,38–39,53–60,79,81,82,192andPakistan,46,49,60,177,179railwaytoTibet,48–49andRussia,18,33–35,45spaceexploration,54,262andUnitedKingdom,43,44andUnitedStates,38–39,78–83

ChouEn-lai,52ChristiansandChristianity,71,91,139,143,150,164,175,190ChukchiSea,240–41,245Churchill,Winston,12Clinton,Hillary,79ColdWar,81,94,107,118,198–200,205,221,235,251–53CollectiveSecurityTreatyOrganization(CSTO),20Colombia,215,218,224,230–31Colorado,62–63,71coltan,119–20Communism,13–14,16,18,34–35,43–48,51–52,81,83,126,165,195–200,209Confucius,41Congo,109,112CongoRainforest,118CongoRiver,109,113CongressofVienna(1815),99Conrad,Joseph,117CostaRica,226cotton,179Crete,86–87Crimea,13,21–27,29,30,33,35,102,107CrimeanWar(1853–56),13,30Croatia,3,86–87,90,91,98Cuba,62–63,80,83,226

andAfrica,125–26andtheUnitedStates,72–73,195

culturewars,105–6Cyprus,86–87,133,141,163Cyrenaica,116–17CzechRepublic,14,20–21,32,33,86–87,91

DAESH(Dawlatal-Islamiyaf’al-Iraqwaal-Shams),147Dagestan,18

DalaiLama,47,51,178,189Damascus,145,156–57,160DanubeRiver,30,86–87,89–90,91,113DardanellesStrait,163–64DeadSea,153DeclarationofIndependence(1776),67demilitarizedzone(DMZ),inKorea,200–204DemocraticPeople’sRepublicofKorea(DPRK).SeeNorthKoreaDemocraticRepublicoftheCongo(DRC),109,116,117–20,125–28,130,131DengXiaoping,44Denmark,8–9,23,86–87,98,101,249,251,254–55DestroyersforBasesAgreement,75,78“developingworld,”117–18DevonIsland,240–41Dharamsala,189Diamond,Jared,110,113Diaoyu/SenkakuIslands,36–37,55–56,211DiegoGarcia,7DnieperRiver,29DniesterRiver,30Dokdo/TakeshimaIslands,193,206DominicanRepublic,72drones,124–25,148–49,183,186–87drugs,70,224–25DurandLine,181,182Durand,Mortimer,182

EastAfricanCommunity(EAC),127,131EastChinaSea,36–37,38–39,45,54,55–56,75,205,206,211EastCoastPlain(U.S.),62–63,65EastSiberianSea,240–41EastTurkestan,50–51economiccrisisof2008,77,93,94–95,100,101,107–8EconomicExclusionZone(EEZ),249,250,254Ecuador,215,218,221,229EEZ(EconomicExclusionZone),249,250,254Egypt,109,120–22,133,136,141,153,154,156,159,163,166–67

SuezCanal,22,75–76,109,111,121SuezCrisis(1956),75–76

ElbeRiver,86–87,100ElburzMountains,157,158ElizabethIslands,240–41EllesmereIsland,240–41,254ElSalvador,226energyresources

inAfrica,60,121,122–23,125–27,131–32inArctic/ArcticCircle,6–7,34,72,242,248–49,251,254,255–57andChina,50,56–58,60,81,82–83hydroelectricity,60,120,122,131–32,218inJapan,208inLatinAmerica,223,227,233,236–38liquefiednaturalgas(LNG),33intheMiddleEast,135,150,157,159–61,163nuclearproduction,159,253,255inPakistan,177,180andRussia,25,30–35shalegasproduction,33,82,227,236–37,238inUnitedStates,33,82,84

EnglishChannel,98,104Erdogan,RecepTayyip,162–63,164

Eritrea,109,112,119,120,133Estonia,8–9,14,16,18,20–21,27–29,32,86–87,240–41Ethiopia,60,109,120,121–22,129,133ethnicRussians,24–28EuphratesRiver,133,135,139,261EurasianUnion,20Europe.SeeWesternEuropeEuropeanUnion(EU),64–65,77,100–106

members,93,96,100–108,161–62,164andRussia,21,25andtheUnitedKingdom(UK),100–101,103,104–5

ExxonMobil,248

FalklandIslands/LasMalvinas,234,237–38FederallyAdministeredTribalAreas,176Finland,8–9,31,32,86–87,98,240–41,243,246,249FirstWorldWar,74,135,136,141–43,152,162Florida,62–63,69–70,72–73,260fracking,82France,86–87,89,96,162

climateandterrain,92,98–100andGermany,106–7LouisianaTerritory,68–71intheMiddleEast,136–37,143,144andRussia,13TripleEntente(1907),99–100,136andtheUnitedKingdom,75–76

Franco,Francisco,93Franco-PrussianWar,99Franklin,John,244FranzJosefLand,8–9FreeTibetMovement,47–49FrenchGuiana(France),215

Gagarin,Yuri,261–62Gambia,109,112GangesRiver,168–69,172,174GazaStrip,153,154,155geopolitics,natureandimportanceof,2–7Georges-Picot,François,136–37Georgia(country),8–9,18,21,27,29,31,77,86–87,107,133Georgia(U.S.),66Gere,Richard,47Germany,14,86–87,91,94–103,108

CatholicismversusProtestantism,91andEuropeanUnion(EU),101–3andFrance,106–7andGreece,91,94–95,101–2reunification,106,204andRussia,13,25,32,96,102,107TripleEntente(1907),99–100,136andtheUnitedStates,75

Gilgit,181GIUK(Greenland/Iceland/UK)gap,23,86–87,104,252globalwarmingeffects,242,245–48,246,255,261GobiDesert,36–37,40,44–45GolanHeights,153,157gold,72Gorbachev,Mikhail,14GrandCanal,36–37,41

GrandEscarpment,232–33GreatBritain.SeeUnitedKingdom(UK)GreatLakes,62–63,71GreatPlains(U.S.),62–63,65GreatRiftValley,118GreatWall/LongWallofChina,41Greece,32,86–87,93–95,163

andEuropeanUnion(EU),101andGermany,91,94–95,101–2andRussia,35,94GreekEmpire,116–17Greenland,34,111,240–41,243,246,249,254

GIUK(Greenland/Iceland/UK)gap,23,86–87,104,252GreenlandSea,240–41,246Guam,73,75Guatemala,221,223,226Guiana,221Gujurat,173GulfofAden,133GulfofMexico,62–63,65,68,73,223,226,260GulfofThailand,55Guyana,215Gwadar,168–69,177,192

Hainan,36–37,43,55Hama,5,145Hanbal,Ahmadibn,137–38HanChinese,39–44,47–52Hannibal,5HansIsland,254–55Harper,Stephen,251HashemiteKingdom(Jordan),141–42,152Hassan,137Hausa,123–24Hawaii,73Herodotus,120–21heroin,224–25Hezbollah,143–44,146,156,160HimachalPradesh,189Himalayas,2–3,36–37,40,46–49,168–69,171,172,179,191,260HinduKush,3,19,168–69,171HindusandHinduism,173–74,175Hiroshima,193,209Hispanicethnicgroup,71,222Hitchens,Christopher,194Hitler,Adolf,13,95HIV,113Hokkaido,36–37,55,193Holocaust,153HolyRomanEmpire,99HomesteadAct(1862),72Honduras,226HongKong,36–37,44,55,57Honshu,36–37,193Hudson,Henry,243HuJintao,48humanrights,47,52,61,67,78,105–6,128,129,161,162,221Hungary,3–4,14,20–21,32,86–87,90,91Hussein(sonofMuhammad),137,138Hussein,Saddam,139–40,160

Hutu,119hydroelectricity,60,120,122,131–32,218

IberianPeninsula,86–87,89icebreakers,253–54,255,256Iceland,8–9,76,86–87,240–41,243,246,249,253,256

GIUK(Greenland/Iceland/UK)gap,23,86–87,104,252immigrantpopulations,105–6,143India,36–37,79,111,167,168–69,170–92,176,181,188–92.SeealsoPakistan

andArctic/ArcticCircle,249asBRICScountry,235andChina,2–3,46–49,178,188–91,260climateandterrain,171,172colonialperiod,172,173languages,172navalcapacity,192nuclearweapons,170–72,178rivers,168–69,172separatistmovements,189size,170–72andtheUnitedStates,191–92

IndianOcean,57,60,109,110–11,114,171individualrights,51–52Indochina,42,45–46,57–58,208–10Indonesia,5,53,55,58,78–79,81IndusRiver,168–69,172,173,174,179–80,181InnerMongolia,36–37,39,43–45,49Inter-AmericanDemocraticCharter,230InternationalCriminalCourt,128Internet,7,147Iran,8–9,29,133,136,141,167,168–69,181

nuclearcapabilities,82–83,157–61andTurkey,163

Iraq,7,8–9,77,84,133,135,136,137,138–42,141,144,148–50,158,159,160,167Ireland,86–87ISIS.SeeIslamicState/ISISIslam.SeealsoMuslims

Salafi,138,150–51Shia,137–39,143–44,149,150,159,160,175Sunni,137–39,143–46,148,149–50,160–61,175

Islamabad,180,181,183,185,188IslamicState/ISIS,124,134,146–52,175Islamists,83,84

inAfrica,117,121,123–25,128–29inIndia/Pakistan,172,173intheMiddleEast,134,145–52,163–67

Israel,121,133,135,136,137,141,142,143,152–57,153,163Iraniannuclearcapabilities,82–83,157–61lackofstrategicdepth,156andtheUnitedStates,83

Italy,32,35,76,86–87,91,92IvantheGreat,15IvantheTerrible,15,35

Jamaica,226Japan,8–9,36–37,38–39,191,193,206–13

andArctic/ArcticCircle,249andBurma,60andChina,43,55–56,206,209–13energyresources,208

andKorea,194,198,199,204–6,207–8lackofnaturalresources,6remilitarization,81,210–13andRussia,199,206,208spaceexploration,262andtheUnitedStates,74,75,78–79,81,200,208–13

Jefferson,Thomas,68Jerusalem,133,141,152–55,153jihadists,124,138,146–52,188.SeealsoIslamicState/ISISJinnah,MuhammadAli,170Jordan,133,135,136,137,141,141–42,151–54,153,155–56,159

Kabul,180–81,181,185,187,188Kagan,Robert,107–8Kaliningrad,8–9,86–87,107KamchatkaPeninsula,8–9,193Kang,David,202Kanuris,123–24Kaplan,RobertD.,59–60,100Karachi,179,180,181KarakoramRange,36–37,46,168–69,171KaraSea,34,240–41Kashmir,175,176,176–80,187Kazakhstan,8–9,20,29,35,36–37,49–50,77Kazama,Shinji,245Kemal,Mustafa,162Kenya,53,60,109,116,120,126–27,129,131Khrushchev,Nikita,23Khuzestan,158KillZone,252KimJong-il,197–98KingWilliamIsland,240–41,244Kissinger,Henry,97Klitschko,Vitali,22Kohl,Helmut,108Korea,8–9,36–37,78–79,193,194–206

artificialbordersin,193,198–204,201andChina,194–96,198–200,203–4foundingstory,197–98andJapan,194,198,199,204–6,207–8KoreanWar(1950–53),76North/Southdivision,6,194–206andtheUnitedStates,79–80,194,198–200

KoreaStrait,206Kosovo,3–4,102KublaiKhan,42KunlanRange,48KunlunShan,36–37Kurds/Kurdistan,136,138–41,141,145–46,149,150,161,164KurilIslands,55,193,212Kuwait,82–83,133,135,137,140,141,148Kyrgyzstan,8–9,20,36–37,49–50Kyushu,36–37,193

LakeBaikal,8–9LakeNicaragua,228Laos,36–37,46,55,168–69LaptevSea,240–41lasertechnology,262–63LasMalvinas/FalklandIslands,234,237–38

LatinAmerica,215,216–39.Seealsonamesofspecificcountriesagriculturallands,232artificialbordersin,219–20borderdisputes,220–21andChina,83,226,227–29,230–31,235climateandterrain,218,221–22,232–33colonialdevelopmentpatterns,216–18,219–20comparedwithWesternEurope,217–18energyresources,223,227,233,236–38explorationperiod,226independencemovements,220internalgeographyasproblem,6languages,218–19,222regionaleconomicalliances,230,233–34rivers,215,218,231–32,233andRussia,34andtheUnitedStates,83,226–27,229–30,231,235

Latvia,8–9,14,16,18,20–21,27–29,32,86–87,240–41Lebanon,86–87,121,133,137,141,142–46,153,156–57,160Lhasa,36–37,48,49Liberia,109,126Libya,102,109,116–17,136,165,167Liechtenstein,86–87liquifiednaturalgas(LNG),33Lithuania,8–9,14,16,18,20–21,27–29,32,33,86–87LittleDiomedeIsland,17LouisianaTerritory,68–71Luzon,36–37,55

Macau,44Macedonia,86–87,91MaginotLine,96–97malaria,113,129Malawi,109,130Malaysia,55,58,78–79,81Maldives,261Mali,109,116MaliEmpire,114Manchuria,35,36–37,39,43,45,49,198,208Mandela,Nelson,110Mao,43–44Maoism,189Margvelashvili,Giorgi,31MarshallPlan(1948–51),75Mazar-e-Sharif,4–5Mbundutribe,125–26,128Mecca,133,142,159Medina,133,159MediterraneanSea,86–87,93,94,109,111–12,114,133,141,153,157MekongRiver,36–37,47MelvilleIsland,240–41Mercatorworldmap,111Mercosur,233–34MesetaCentral,86–87,91,92–93Mesopotamia,135MexicanWar(1846–48),71Mexico,217,221–25,226,230–31

drugs,70,224–25andtheUnitedStates,62–63,66,70–71,222–23

MiddleEast,133,134–67.Seealsonamesofspecificcountries

Africantrade,114ArabSpring,43,164–67artificialbordersin,6,133,134–38,141,142,153climateandterrain,135,157–58colonialperiod,136–38,141–43,144,152–53energyresources,135,150,157,159–61,163GulfWarconflicts,140,158,160Islamists,134,145–52,163–67Kurds/Kurdistan,136,138–41,141,145–46,149,150,161,164OttomanEmpire,3,15,30,90,115,117,136,138–39,141–42,152,163,174PersianEmpire,15,139,160andRussia,34,163ShiaIslam,137–39,143–44,149,150,159,160size,135SuezCrisis(1956),75–76SunniIslam,137–39,143–46,148,149–50,160–61UnitedKingdomin,136–37,141–42,152–53watersupplies,261

MischiefIslands,58MississippiBasin,62–63MississippiRiver,62–63,65,67–72Moldova,8–9,21,27,29,29–31,86–87,91Mongolia,8–9,18,36–37,40–45,49–50Mongols,14–15,42,43,158,198,206MonroeDoctrine(1823),70–71,229–30Monroe,James,70–71,229–30Montenegro,86–87,91MontreuxConvention(1936),22Morales,Evo,221Mouillot,MirandaRichmond,88Mozambique,109,130Mubarak,Gamal,166–67Mubarak,Hosni,166–67Muhammad,137,154Multan,181MuratRiver,261Murmansk,8–9,19,240–41,246,251Musharraf,Pervez,182–83MuslimBrotherhood,145,163,166–67Muslims

inAfrica,112,123inAlbania,3–4inEuropeancountries,105–6,151inIndia/Pakistan,172–77,190intheMiddleEast,137–39,143–46,148–50,160–62Salafi,138,150–51Shia,137–39,143–44,149,150,159,160,175Sunni,137–39,143–46,148,149–50,160–61,175Xinjiang,42–43,50–51

Nagaland,190Nagasaki,193,209Namibia,109,112,119–20Napoleon,13,69,92NativeAmericans,66,67,69,71–72NATO.SeeNorthAtlanticTreatyOrganization(NATO)Nepal,36–37,168–69,171,176,189Neruda,Pablo,216Netherlands,86–87Nevada,62–63,71

NewColdWar,29NewGreatGame,255–57NewMexico,71,222NewOrleans,62–63,68–69,70,71,73“NewRussia,”25–26NewZealand,76Nicaragua,221,226NicaraguaGrandCanal(developmentsite),83,226,227–29Niger,109,112,127–28Nigeria,109,114,116,122–25,129NigerRiver,109,113,123NileRiver,109,113,120–22Nixon,Richard,52,224–25Nobile,Umberto,245NorthAmericanFreeTradeAgreement(NAFTA),230NorthAtlanticTreatyOrganization(NATO)

inAfghanistan,182–87inBalkanstates,3–4formation,13–14,75–78,100members,13–14,22,23,25,27–29,31,35,75–78,97,98,102–3,106,163,180,250–53andRussia,20–29,31,35,96

NorthChinaPlain/CentralPlain,39–41NorthernSeaRoute,246,248NorthEuropeanPlain,1,8–9,12–13,19,21–22,30,35,75,86–87,90,92,96,98,99,107,259–60NorthKorea,195–204.SeealsoKorea

isolationof,196–97,198nuclearweapons,195,201–4

NorthPole,244,245,250NorthSea,23,86–87,107North-WestFrontier,171,174,181,183,186,187NorthwestPassage,243–45,246,247–48Norway,8–9,23,76,86–87,240–41,243,246,249,250–51NorwegianSea,8–9,86–87,240–41NovayaZemlya,8–9Novorossiysk,23NovosibirskIslands,8–9,251nuclearenergy,159,253,255nuclearweapons,50,80,107,180,188,209,238,260

andIndia,170–72,178andIran,82–83,157–61andNorthKorea,195,201–4andPakistan,170–72,178

Obama,Barack,47,60,77,83,129,187,192,235Oberdorfer,Don,199Odessa,29Ohio,62–63OhioRiver,62–63,67–68oil.SeeenergyresourcesOkinawa,36–37,56,75,81,209,211,212,213Oman,133,135Oregon,62–63,69OrganizationofAmericanStates(OAS),230“Orientalism,”166Ortega,Daniel,228OttomanEmpire,3,15,30,90,115,117,136,138–39,141–42,152,163,174Özal,Turgut,162

PacificOcean,8–9,55,60,62–63,65,73–74,193,215,226,240–41,246Pakistan,36–37,159,168–69,170–92,176,181SeealsoIndia

artificialbordersin,6,178,181,181–82andChina,46,49,60,177,179colonialperiod,178energyresources,177,180lackofstrategicdepth,180languages,175–76nuclearweapons,170–72,178Taliban,185–88

Palawan,55Palestine,133,136,137,141,142,143,152,153Palin,Sarah,16–17Panama,226,226–27PanamaCanal,73,83,226,226–27,247Pan-AmericanHighway,224Papoulias,Karolas,94ParacelIslands,55Paraguay,215,233–34,236Parry,WilliamEdward,244Pashtuns,175,176,181,182,184,186,187,188PearlHarbor,209People’sRepublicofChina(PRC).SeeChinaPersianEmpire,15,139,160PersianGulf,133,159–60Peru,215,217,218,221,230–31Peshawar,181,182,188PetertheGreat,15–16,19,35petroleum.SeeenergyresourcesPhilippines,36–37,55,58,73,191,200,209Poland,8–9,12–13,14,20–22,27,30,32,33,86–87,91,95–97,200Portugal,86–87,89,90,125,130,219Powell,Colin,182–83PratasReef,55PuertoRico,72,73Punjab,172,173,175,176,180,186,187,190Putin,Vladimir,1,12,14,21–26,28,32,33,35,77,97,251,252Pye,Lucian,38Pyongyang,193,197,201Pyrenees,86–87,89,90,92–93PytheasofMassalia,243–45

Qaradawi,Yusufal-,167Qatar,82–83,133Quetta,181

railways,11–12,18,48–49,60,72,126–28,130,132,172rainforests,118,215,231Ramadi,141,148,150RedSea,112,133Reid,John,184–85RepublicofKorea(ROK).SeeSouthKoreaRhineRiver,86–87,100,113Rhodesia,116RhôneRiver,86–87,91,92RiodeJaneiro,215,232RiodelaPlataregion,233,236RioGrandeRiver,62–63,71,222,226RiverIbar,3–4RockyMountains,62–63,65–68RomanEmpire,90,116–17Romania,14,20–21,23,29,86–87,90,91,98,133

Roosevelt,Theodore“Teddy,”73–74,80,230Rosneft,248Rousseff,Dilma,235RubalKhali,133,135rubber,119,209Russia,11–35,29,36–37,86–87,133,193,219,240–41,246SeealsoUSSR

andAfrica,34,125–26andArctic/ArcticCircle,6,15,16,19,243,249,250–57artificialbordersin,8–9asBRICScountry,235andChina,18,33–35,45andCrimea,21–27,33,102,107economicproblemsof1990s,77–78energyresources,25,30–35ethnicRussians,24–28andGeorgia,31andGermany,13,25,32,96,102,107andGreece,35,94andJapan,199,206,208lackofwarm-waterport,19,21–27,33,77,102,107languages,24–26andLatinAmerica,34andMiddleEast,34,163andMoldova,21,27,29–31andNATO,20–29,31,35,96navalcapacity,22–23,104NorthEuropeanPlain,1,8–9,12–13,19,21–22,30,35,96,259–60size,14–18strategicdepth,12–13,15–16,65andSyria,22–23,35TripleEntente(1907),99–100,136andTurkey,32–33,80andUkraine,1,8–9,14–16,20,21–22,23–27,29,30,45,77,96,102–3,107andtheUnitedStates,77–78andWesternEurope,95–97

Russo-JapaneseWar(1904–5),199Rwanda,109,119–20,126–27,131RyukyuIslands,36–37,56,193,209,211

Saakashvili,Mikheil,31Sagan,Carl,259SaharaDesert,109,110–11,112,114,124–25Sahel,109,112,115,124–25,261Said,Edward,166Sakhalin,8–9,36–37,193SalafiIslam,138,150–51salt,114SanMartín,Joséde,220Santos,JoséEduardodos,128SaudiArabia,82–83,109,133,135,137,141,142,151,159,160–61,167SavaRiver,86–87,89–90,91Schäuble,Wolfgang,94–95Scotland,104SeaofGalilee,153,157SeaofJapan,8–9,19,45,55,193,201,203–5,206SeaofMarmara,163–64SeaofOkhotsk,8–9,193,206SecondWorldWar,13–14,16,43,74–75,92–95,96–97,100,102,108,120,153,209–10SeineRiver,86–87,91,92SenkakuIslands/Diaoyu,36–37,55–56,211

Seoul,193,201,201–3,204,205September11,2001,terroristattacks,28,182–83,186,188Serbia,3–4,32,86–87,90,91,97Sevastopol,21–27,29SevernayaZemlya,8–9Seward,William,72shalegasproduction,33,82,227,236–37,238Shanghai,42,55–56Shattal-Arab,157,158Shell,248ShiaIslam,137–39,143–44,149,150,159,160,175Shikoku,193SiachenGlacier,178Siberia,8–9,11–12,15,17–18,240–41SierraMadreOccidental,223,226SierraNevadaMountains,62–63,65Sikhs,172,173–74,190SilkRoute,49–50SinaiPeninsula,153,156Sindh,175,176,187Singapore,55,58,78–79,81,209Singh,Amarjit,171SkagerrakStrait,23,252slavery

inAfrica,115inChina,41

Slovakia,14,20–21,32,86–87,90,91Slovenia,86–87,91,98Somalia,109,116,129,133SouthAfrica,109,112,125,129–31,235SouthAmerica,215,218,221–22,231–39.SeealsoLatinAmericaandnamesofspecificcountriesSouthChinaSea,36–37,41,45,54,55,56–60,191SouthernCone,219SouthKorea,195,198–206.SeealsoKoreaSouthOssetia,31,107SovietUnion,former.SeeUSSRsoybeans,40,232spaceexploration,54,261–62Spain,86–87,89,90,92–95,162

inLatinAmerica,219andtheUnitedStates,67,69–73

SpratlyIslands,55,58SriLanka,60,168–69,176Stalin,Joseph,20,30,35Stefansson,Vilhjalmur,242St.Petersburg,8–9,17StraitofDover,104StraitofGibraltar,22StraitofHormuz,104,133,157,159–60StraitofMalacca,55,58,60,81,104,177,192StraitsofFlorida,73Sudan,109,115,116,120,122,126–27,128,133,261SuezCanal,22,75–76,109,111,121SuluSea,55Sumatra,55SunniIslam,137–39,143–46,148,149–50,160–61,175SunniTriangle,150SunTzu,5Surinam,215SvalbardIslands(Norway),8–9,250

Sweden,8–9,13,86–87,98,240–41,243,246,249Switzerland,86–87,91Sykes,Mark,136–37Syria,7,8–9,78,86–87,133,135,136–39,140–43,141,144–46,148,152,153,154,156–57,163,167.SeealsoIslamicState/ISIS

civilwar,5andRussia,22–23,35

Taiwan/RepublicofChina(ROC),36–37,38–39,43,54,55,56–57,58,82,208,229Tajikistan,4–5,8–9,20,36–37,46,49–50,51Takeshima/DokdoIslands,193,206Taliban,4–5,181–88TamilNadu,172Tanzania,109,112,114,119,120,127,130,131TelAviv,153,156terrorism,28,106,179,182–83,186,188Texas,62–63,67,70–71,222Thailand,36–37,53,55,78–79,168–69,191TharDesert,168–69,180Theroux,Paul,48Thule,240–41,243TiananmenSquaremassacre(1989),44Tibet,7,36–37,41,43–44,46–50,51,178,179,188–90TibetanPlateau,36–37,40,47TierradelFuego,215,218TigrisRiver,133,135,139Tikrit,139,141,148,150Transistria,29,30Transjordan,142TreatyofTordesillas(1494),219–20TripleEntente(1907),99–100,136Tripolitania,116–17Truman,Harry,199Turkey,8–9,29,32,86–87,93,133,141,145–46,157,159,161–64

controlofBosporus,22,23,163–64andIran,163andRussia,32–33,80watersupplies,261

Turkmenistan,8–9,20,133,158Tutsi,119Twain,Mark,64

Uganda,109,112,119,120,126–27,131Uighurpeople,50–51Ukraine,1,6,8–9,14–16,20,21–22,23–27,29,29,30,33,45,77,86–87,91,96,102–3,107UmayyidCaliphate,139,173UNASUR,234UnitedArabEmirates(UAE),82–83,133,148UnitedKingdom(UK),86–87,96–97,103–5

inAfghanistan,184–85andChina,43,44colonialperiod,43,44,66–67andEuropeanUnion(EU),100–101,103,104–5FalklandIslands/LasMalvinas,234,237–38andFrance,75–76GIUK(Greenland/Iceland/UK)gap,23,86–87,104,252andIceland,256immigrants,105–6inIndia/Pakistan,172,173,178intheMiddleEast,136–37,141–42,152–53navalcapacity,75,78,104

TripleEntente(1907),99–100,136andUnitedStates,66–67,75,78,238

UnitedNations(UN)ConventionontheLawoftheSea(UNCLOS),249,254HumanDevelopmentIndex,119,120andKorea,200SecurityCouncil,128,131

UnitedStates,62–63,64–85.SeealsonamesofspecificstatesandAfghanistan,4–5andAfrica,84andArctic/ArcticCircle,243,249,253–54andCanada,62–63,65,66andChina,38–39,78–83ColdWar,81,94,107,118,198–200,205,221,235,251–53colonialperiod,66–70andCuba,72–73,195drones,124–25,148–49,183,186–87anddrugs,224–25energyresources,33,82,84geographyindictatingforeignpolicy,7andGermany,75Hispanicpopulation,71,222andIndia,191–92andIran,82–83andIraq,84andIsrael,83andJapan,74,75,78–79,81,200,208–13andKorea,79–80,194,198–200languages,71,80,89,222lasertechnology,262–63andLatinAmerica,83,226–27,229–30,231,235andMexico,62–63,66,70–71,222–23NativeAmericannations,66,67,69,71–72navalcapacity,38–39,53–54,72–74,75,78,79,82–83,160prospectsfor,64,84–85andRussia,77–78September11,2001,terroristattacks,28,182–83,186,188spaceexploration,262andSpain,67,69–73strategicdepth,6,62–63,64–73andUnitedKingdom,66–67,75,78,238

U.S.GeologicalSurvey,248UralMountains,8–9,11–13,15–17,28,92Uruguay,215,230–31,232,233–34,236Ürümqi,36–37,50,57USSR,13–14,16,199,212.SeealsoRussia

Afghanistaninvasion(1979),18–19,177,181ColdWar,81,94,107,118,198–200,205,221,235,251–53collapseof,17,19–21,28,30,95,253CubanMissileCrisis(1962),72–73spaceexploration,261–62

Utah,62–63,71Uzbekistan,8–9,20,133

VacaMuertashaleformation,236–37,238Venezuela,34,215,218,220,221,227,229,230–31,233–34,235VictoriaIsland,240–41Vietnam,36–37,45–46,55,57–58,76,78–79,191Vladivostok,8–9,19,36–37,45,194

WangJing,227–28WarofthePacific(1879),220–21WarsawPact,13–14,20–21,97Washington,George,74watersupplies,47,120–22,125,131–32,179–80,191,207,218,228,232,261WestBank,142,153,153–56WesternEurope,86–87,88–108.SeealsoEuropeanUnion(EU)andnamesofspecificcountries

climateandterrain,6,88–92,98–100industrializationandtrade,89–90,92–93,100,103–4LatinAmericacomparedwith,217–18north-southdivide,88–101

WestSiberianPlain,8–9,18WilayatalSudanalGharbi/BokoHaram,123–25wine,30–31

Xhosas,116Xinjiang,36–37,42–43,49–51

YaluRiver,193,195,200YangtzeRiver,36–37,39,41,47Yanukovych,Viktor,21,102yellowfever,113YellowRiver,36–37,39–40,41,47YellowSea,8–9,36–37,45,55,193Yeltsin,Boris,97Yemen,109,133,135,151,167Yugoslavia,3–4,97YulaRiver,198,203

ZagrosMountains,133,157Zaire,109,118ZambeziRiver,109,113,114Zambia,109,119,125,126,127,130ZhengHe,53Zhrinovsky,Vladimir,19Zimbabwe,109,116,119–20,130Zulus,116