Eidgenössisches Departement des Innern EDI Bundesamt für Meteorologie und Klimatologie MeteoSchweiz Statistical Characteristics of High-Resolution COSMO Ensemble Forecasts in view of Data Assimilation Priority Project KENDA Daniel Leuenberger MeteoSwiss, Zurich, Switzerland COSMO GM 2009, Offenbach
Statistical Characteristics of High-Resolution COSMO Ensemble Forecasts in view of Data Assimilation. Priority Project KENDA Daniel Leuenberger MeteoSwiss, Zurich, Switzerland COSMO GM 2009, Offenbach. Observation term. Background term. Introduction I. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Eidgenössisches Departement des Innern EDIBundesamt für Meteorologie und Klimatologie MeteoSchweiz
• Small deviations from normality around mean in COSMO-DE for forecast departures of temperature, wind and surface pressure out to 12h lead time (normranges 80-95%).
• „Fat tails“, i.e. more large departures than expected in a Gaussian distribution
• Better fit in free atmosphere than near surface
• Deviation from normality in humidity and precipitation
• Transformed variables (log(pp) and NRH) have better properties concerning normality and bias
• Negligible differences COSMO-DE vs. COSMO-EU
• Slightly larger deviation from normality in a sample of rainy days