Market Confidence Meter •The Commerce Department announced that sales of new homes surged 27 percent last month, well exceeding expectations. •March was the strongest month since last July.
Princeton NJ Market Data april 29 10
Nov 02, 2014
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Market Confidence Meter
•The Commerce Department announced that sales of new homes surged 27 percent last month, well exceeding expectations.•March was the strongest month since last July.
Market Confidence Meter
•Home ownership continues to be one foundation of the American Dream!•The 2009 National Association of Realtors consumer survey results revealed that eight out of 10 consumers surveyed believe that owning a home is an investment in your future.
Market Confidence Meter
According to the National Association of Realtors, sales of existing homes rose
6.8 percent in March and were 16.1 percent higher than in March 2009!
Market Confidence Meter
National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun is encouraged to see a broad
recovery in home sales, noting two important trends:•Sales are above last year’s levels for 9 straight months•Inventory has trended down from previous year levels for 20 months.
1. Real Estate is Local
Top Five Rules for Understanding the Real
Estate Market:
2. Real Estate is Local
3. Real Estate is Local
4. Real Estate is Local5. Real Estate is Local
Listings from the MLS in Weichert Market AreasListings from the MLS in Weichert Market Areas
In our local area (CT/NY/NJ Lehigh Valley, PA), the number of homes for sale (Weichert and non-Weichert listings) has steadily increased over the past four years.
Market Scale for Supply & Market Scale for Supply & DemandDemand
High Supply/Low Demand Low Supply/High DemandNormal
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Weichert has been studying market conditions for more than 3 decades and has found a direct correlation between market absorption and property values.
As absorption rates increase beyond a normal market level of 5-6 months, property values depreciate annually.
4/27/10Towns Active
ListingsPending in Last 30 Days
Absorption Rate in Months
New Listings in 30 Days
Net Gain (Loss) to Market
Listings Reduced in 30 Days
% of Invent. Reduced
Expired Listings
W/drawn Listings
Closed Listings
West Windsor: All Styles
160 29 5.5 66 27 49 30.6 5 5 19
West Windsor Condo/ T.Houses
39 6 6.5 19 10 10 25.6 0 3 8
West Windsor55+
17 3 5.7 3 0 -- -- 0 0 0
West Windsor Single Family
104 20 5.2 44 17 39 37.5 5 2 11
Lawrence: All Styles
242 22 11 57 22 73 30.2 6 7 21
Lawrence:Condo/THouses
74 9 8.2 25 13 35 47.3 1 2 10
Lawrence: 55+
24 1 24 3 1 -- -- 0 1 2
Lawrence: Single Family
144 12 12 29 8 38 26.4 5 4 9
4/27/10Towns Active
ListingsPending in Last 30 Days
Absorption Rate in Months
New Listings in 30 Days
Net Gain (Loss) to Market
Listings Reduced in 30 Days
% of Invent. Reduced
Expired Listings
W/drawn Listings
Closed Listings
PlainsboroAll Styles
77 19 4 33 7 12 15% 7 0 10
PlainsboroCondo/ THouses
40 10 4 17 2 8 20% 5 0 8
Plainsboro55+
11 0 11 7 6 1 9% 1 0 0
PlainsboroSingle Family
26 9 2.8 9 -1 3 11% 1 0 2
Cranbury:All Styles
29 0 99 9 7 6 20% 2 0 0
Cranbury:55+
1 0 99 1 1 -- -- 0 0 0
Cranbury: Single Family
28 0 99 8 6 6 21% 2 0 0
4/27/10Towns Active
ListingsPending in Last 30 Days
Absorption Rate in Months
New Listings in 30 Days
Net Gain (Loss) to Market
Listings Reduced in 30 Days
% of Invent. Reduced
Expired Listings
W/drawn Listings
Closed Listings
Ewing: All Styles
258 21 12.3 74 30 65 25.2% 16 7 21
Ewing : Condo/ T.Houses
43 3 14.3 13 7 9 20.9% 1 2 4
Ewing 55+:
6 0 99 1 1 -- -- 0 0 0
Ewing:Single Family
209 18 116 60 22 56 26.8% 15 5 17
East Windsor:All Styles
195 10 19.5 41 22 40 20.5% 5 4 17
East Windsor:Condo/ THouses
107 5 21.4 27 17 21 19.6% 2 3 10
East Windsor:55+
22 0 99 2 2 -- -- 0 0 0
East Windsor: Single Family
66 5 13.2 12 3 19 28.8% 3 1 7
4/27/10Towns Active
ListingsPending in Last 30 Days
Absorption Rate in Months
New Listings in 30 Days
Net Gain (Loss) to Market
Listings Reduced in 30 Days
% of Invent. Reduced
Expired Listings
W/drawn Listings
Closed Listings
Hopewell Twp.All Styles
183 30 6 59 29 39 21% 7 12 11
Hopewell Twp. Condo/ T.Houses
19 9 2 15 6 8 42% 1 2 1
Hopewell Twp.:55+
9 1 9
Hopewell Twp Single Family 155 20 8 44 24 31 20% 6 10 10
Hamilton: All Styles 606 96 6 159 63 183 30% 30 14 57
Hamilton:Condo/ THouses 124 20 6 39 19 49 40% 5 3 21
Hamilton:Single Family 441 72 6 120 48 134 30% 25 11 36
Hamilton: 55+40 4 10
4/27/10Towns Active
ListingsPending in Last 30 Days
Absorption Rate in Months
New Listings in 30 Days
Net Gain (Loss) to Market
Listings Reduced in 30 Days
% of Invent. Reduced
Expired Listings
W/drawn Listings
Closed Listings
RobbinsvilleAll Styles 133 24 6 47 23 42 32% 6 5 6
RobbinsvilleCondo/ T.Houses
68 17 4 24 7 24 35% 1 3 5
Single Family65 7 9 23 16 18 28% 5 2 1
Hightstown Boro: All Styles 75 1 75 13 12 20 27% 4 5 2
Pennington27 4 7 11 7 4 15% 0 2 5
Hopewell Boro22 2 11 6 4 6 27% 1 0 3
4/27/10Towns Active
ListingsPending in Last 30 Days
Absorption Rate in Months
New Listings in 30 Days
Net Gain (Loss) to Market
Listings Reduced in 30 Days
% of Invent. Reduced
Expired Listings
W/drawn Listings
Closed Listings
Princeton Boro: All Styles 55 3 18.3 18 15 8 14.5 0 0 4
Pton -Boro Condo/ Thouses 22 1 22 7 6 3 13.6 0 0 1
Pton-BoroSingle Family 33 2 16.5 1 9 5 15.6 0 0 3
Pton Twp: All Styles 135 9 15 35 21 29 21.5 0 5 8
Pton Twp: Condo/ Thouses 14 3 4.7 2 -2 2 14.3 0 1 3
Pton Twp:Single Family 121 6 20.2 33 23 27 22.3 0 4 5
4/27/10Towns Active
ListingsPending in Last 30 Days
Absorption Rate in Months
New Listings in 30 Days
Net Gain (Loss) to Market
Listings Reduced in 30 Days
% of Invent. Reduced
Expired Listings
W/drawn Listings
Closed Listings
South
Brunswick
All Styles
216 21 11 69 48 47 21% 15 2 29
South BrunswickCondo/ T.Houses
67 11 76 31 20 17 6% 7 0 13
South Brunswick
55+
27 0 27 3 3 2 2% 4 1 6
South Brunswick
Single Family
122 10 12 32 22 27 22% 5 1 10
Monroe:
All Styles 441 33 13 109 76 63 14% 32 5 48
Monroe:
55+ 262 23 12 71 48 32 12% 13 2 36
Monroe:
Single Family 179 10 17 38 2 31 17% 19 3 12
4/27/10Towns Active
ListingsPending in Last 30 Days
Absorption Rate in Months
New Listings in 30 Days
Net Gain (Loss) to Market
Listings Reduced in 30 Days
% of Invent. Reduced
Expired Listings
W/drawn Listings
Closed Listings
Montgomery
All Styles 158 19 8.3 60 38 39 25% 5 5 12
Montgomery
Condo/Twnhms 27 4 6.7 16 9 6 22% 1 3 3
Single Family131 15 8.7 44 28 33 25% 4 2 9
Hillsborough
All Styles 228 41 5.5 71 30 57 25% 9 6 26
Hillsborough
Condo/Twnhms 93 13 7.1 36 20 17 18% 2 1 13
Hillsborough
Single Family 135 28 4.8 35 10 40 29% 7 5 13
Understand the Local Market That You are
Buying into or Selling out of…
Market Absorption Scale(Absorption Rate in Months)
5-6 months absorption rate indicates a normal market.
How to Measure the Vitality of the How to Measure the Vitality of the Local Local Market you are Selling Out of Market you are Selling Out of
or Buying Into…or Buying Into…
107 current active listings
4 reported sales in last 30 days=
24.3months
absorptionrate
Anytown., NJ
5-6 Months Market Absorption Rate indicates a normal market.
Market Absorption Rate Market Absorption Rate Comparable PropertiesComparable Properties
76 current active listings
18 reported ‘pending’ sales in last 30 days=4.2 month absorption
rate
Plainsboro Twp., All Homes
5-6 Months Market Absorption Rate indicates a normal market.
Market Absorption Rate Market Absorption Rate Comparable PropertiesComparable Properties
29 current active listings
5 reported ‘pending’ sales in last 30 days= 5.8 monthabsorption
rate
5-6 Months Market Absorption Rate indicates a normal market.
Plainsboro Single Families
Market Absorption Rate Market Absorption Rate Comparable PropertiesComparable Properties
7 current active listings
5 reported ‘pending’ sales in last 30 days= 5.8 monthabsorption
rate
5-6 Months Market Absorption Rate indicates a normal market.
Plainsboro Single Families$500k +
Strategies for Buying:
Understand the complete financial picture in buying a home.
Look at a 5-year financial overview of your purchase.
Fed Drives Rates to Fed Drives Rates to Record LowsRecord Lows
Average Annual Rate (30-year fixed rate mortgage)
5%
7%
9%
11%
13%
15%
17%
19%
1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
Year
Percent
Source: Freddie Mac
“What happens if I buy a house and the price goes down next year!”
Answer: If you have a good downpayment, a modest, one-year
drop should not be a problem when you look at the long term.
(Follow the example on the next few pages.)
Purchase Price $329,000 Loan Amount $317400
Down Payment $11,515 Monthly P&I $1802
Appreciation/Depreciation Home Value1st Year -3% $319,1302nd Year 0% $319,1303rd Year 1% $322,3214th Year 3% $331,9905th Year 5% $348,5905 Year Appreciation/Depreciation $19,500
Tax Benefit Vs Paying Rent @
$1600/mo1st Year $5,000 $19,2002nd Year $5,000 $19,2003rd Year $5,000 $19,2004th Year $5,000 $19,2005th Year $5,000 $19,2005 Year Total $25,000 $96,000
Total Gain $44,200Create Equity
v Pay Rent
*Assumes your home loses value the first year
+ The Amortization on a Loan
Yearly Schedule of Balances and PaymentsYear
Beginning Balance
Payment Principal InterestCumulative
PrincipalCumulative Interest
Ending Balance
2010 $315,646.96 $21,625.92 $4,374.96 $17,250.96 $6,128.00 $24,508.72$311,272.0
0
2011 $311,272.00 $21,625.92 $4,621.30 $17,004.62 $10,749.30 $41,513.34$306,650.7
0
2012 $306,650.70 $21,625.92 $4,881.98 $16,743.94 $15,631.28 $58,257.28$301,768.7
2
2013 $301,768.72 $21,625.92 $5,157.36 $16,468.56 $20,788.64 $74,725.84$296,611.3
6
2014 $296,611.36 $21,625.92 $5,448.28 $16,177.64 $26,236.92 $90,903.48$291,163.0
8
Appreciation: $19,500+
Amortization: $20,109+
Tax Benefit of Home Ownership +
Low Interest Rates: $5000
When you add up all the financial benefits,
When you take the time to know the market you are
buying into,When you buy carefully,
When you have good financing and real estate
advice,2010 looks like an Excellent
Time to Buy a Home!
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