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www.dennikn.skFRIDAY 19 JUNE 2015
The Juncker Cur-se could be the Wests epitaph. The former head
of government in Lu-
xembourg (now running the European Commission) bemo-aned Europes
feebleness in economic reform. We know what to do. We just dont
know how to get elected after weve done it.
If things looked bad when he said that in 2008, they are wor-se
now. The war in Georgia dis-played the Kremlins aggressive mindset
but also Russias mi-litary weakness. Few people then believed that
Vladimir Putin would be able to mount a sharp strategic challenge
to NATO in the Baltic states.
NATO has reluctantly mo-ved on contingency planning
and prepositioning. But the gap between alliance capabilities
and those of Russia is wide-ning not shrinking especially if you
take nuclear weapons, space, new-generation conven-tional, cyber
and propaganda weapons into account.
Europes leaders are wor-ried, quite rightly, about other things.
The problems of the tiny Greek economy have be-en allowed to
balloon into an international financial crisis. Everyone knows what
is ne-eded: debt relief plus real re-form. But nobody seems able to
negotiate it.
The Middle East looked bad in 2008. It is far worse now, with
Syria, Yemen and Iraq in chaos. The tides of migrants fleeing
abominable conditions in countries such as Eritrea, or simply
wanting a better life than quite well-run pla-ces such as Senegal
can offer, overwhelms Europes fraying solidarity.
The real lesson in the dread-ful mess of 2015 is that Euro-pes
internal problems cannot be fixed without much stronger government
at home and abro-ad. The euro zone, if it is going to survive,
needs to become a transfer union, with transfers of money in one
direction and of sovereignty in another.
Similarly, the chaos to the south and east requires vigoro-us
European interventionpo-
litical, economic and military. It could happen: with 500
million people and a nearly $20 trillion GDP Europe is the biggest
and richest place in the world. In conjunction with Americas
mi-litary might, the EUs economic heft makes it an equal partner in
an alliance that could run the world.
True, neither the European public, nor the policy-makers, are
remotely ready for such steps. But what is the alternati-ve? It is
not the status quo, but the destruction of the Europe-an economic
and security order so laboriously built up over the past six
decades, with poverty, instability, misery and war, not just in the
European neigh-bourhood, but in Europes he-artlands. Globsec has
much to discuss.
The real lesson in the dreadful mess of 2015 is that Europes
internal problems cannot be fixed without much stronger government
at home and abroad.
Leaderless World
The eurozone needs to become a transfer union, the chaos to the
south and east requires vigorous European intervention. It could
happen, but neither the European public, nor the policy-makers are
ready for such steps
British Prime Minister David Cameron will come to Slovakia for
the first time. He will attend the global conference on foreign
policy and security in Bratislava. Besides him, five more prime
ministers, six presidents and almost a thousand participants will
attend this years GLOBSEC. Do not miss David Camerons keynote
speach at 13:00 on Friday at Kempinski hotel. FOTO - TASR/AP
Bigger mission
Dear GLOBSEC friends, it is my great honour and pleasure to
welcome you on behalf of the whole GLOBSEC team to the tenth
jubilee Bratisla-va Global Security Forum, GLOBSEC 2015.
It has been a decade since we organised the first edi-tion of
this conference.
Since then, Europe and the world have changed tremendously and
we have faced one of the most dyna-mic decades in history. The
mission to bring peace, free-dom and security to Europe is not yet
finished.
GLOBSEC has developed against the background of this
exceptionally dynamic period. It has become an indispensable forum
for sharing new ideas and for-mulating answers to the challenges
that we face.
It is up to all of us to transform the debates into political
actions and stra-tegies. You, the GLOBSEC community, are crucial in
this endeavour. Use the three day conference to the maximum, spread
our deba-tes beyond the walls of this venue and translate them into
action.
Dear friends, welcome to Bratislava, welcome to Cen-tral Europe
and enjoy every minute of GLOBSEC 2015.
INSIDE
Andrei Zubov - How can we solve the Cri-mean problem? Page 2
What should you see? Ambassador Rastislav Ker recommends which
panels are most interesting for him this year at Globsec. Page
2
Best quotes of GLOBSEC Page 2
10 years of GLOBSEC: How do you remember it? Page 3
Timothy Snyder - Interview about the Russian challenge with Yale
historian. Page 4
Interview Timothy Snyder
There will never be Maidan on
Red Square Page 4
EDWARD LUCASThe Economist
ROBERT VASS Founder of the GLOBSEC Forum
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FRIDAY 19 JUNE 2015 GLOBSEC DAILY2
We need such a conference, we need such a gathering, for us to
exchange views, experience and expertise, that will help humanity
fight against anyone who would like to break this global
security.Faysal GouiaDiplomatic Institute for Training and Studies
in Tunis
This is one of the few if not the only place where one can
really discuss issues of democracy, safety, challenges to European
integration, and reforms with people who understand every word that
is said. Here you can be very relaxed, you can talk to people who
do understand you. Oleh RybachukChairman and co-foun-der of Centre
UA
It is probably the most important conference on security issues
in Central Europe today.Another thing about Globsec that makes it a
stand out conference is that it really fosters lively
debatebringing diversity of opinions, not long monologues Ian
BrzezinskiSenior Fellow in the International Security Program
BEST QUOTES OF GLOBSEC 2014
Ambassador Rastislav Ker is a Slovak diplomat, currently serving
as Ambassador of Slovakia to Hungary. He has also held the position
of Honorary President and Chairman of the Board of the Slovak
Atlantic Commission since 2008.
What should you see?
Zubov: How to solve the Crimean problem
In early March 2014, Russian society and the Crimean people
rejoiced, and the Russian Presi-dent, Mr Putin said pom-
pous words about the Crime-an ship that has forever retur-ned to
the Russian harbour. Crimea has always been, and once again became
Russian these words were repeated countless times, almost like a
mantra.
But over the past year it has become clear, that the Crimean
problem has become an instrument of destruction of international
relations in Europe and throughout the world. The world took the
an-nexation of Crimea by Russia as an act of unprovoked and
unjustifiable aggression.
Residents of Crimea are far from being unanimous on this issue.
Some of them, mainly the Crimean Tatars and Ukrainians are for the
return to Ukraine, the majori-ty of the population against. Is it
possible to decide the fate of the land without confor-ming to the
will of its inhabi-tants?
Lets check the history first. Crimea was not Russian until April
of 1783. In ancient and medieval times the Cri-mean peninsula was
owned by many states. But Russia was still non-existent, and if
Ruses and Slavs appeared in the Crimea at all, it happened in very
small quantities.
Yes, in the 11th Century, in Taman (now Kuban), there was the
Tmutarakan Prin-cipality, which was ruled by the Rurik dynasty, but
was more in favour of Kiev than Moscow. The population of Crimea,
at the time, was very colourful, there were lots of Greeks,
Italians, Armenians, Jews, Slavs, Polovtsian, des-cendants of the
Khazars and Normans. Lingua franca gra-dually became a kind of
Cri-mean Tatar language.
Of all the countries who have controlled Crimea throughout
history, the Rus-sian Federation was the brie-fest owner of the
territory and so has the weakest claim to it. Even during the short
tenure of Soviet power over Crimea, they managed to commit many
crimes against the indigenous Crimean Ta-tar people and against all
the other peoples of the peninsu-la, including Russians.
In 1939, 1.1 million people
lived on the peninsula, in Sep-tember 1944 only 379-thou-sand
were left, mostly Rus-sians, Ukrainians (21%) and Belarusians. The
annexation of Crimea transferred a local problem to the global
level. But is it possible to solve this problem?
Yes, there is a solution. But it requires the rejection of
unfounded claims on foreign land and the return to the will of the
people. But Crimea cannot be simply returned to Ukraine like a bag
of stolen
potatoes. The fact remains that a large part of the popula-tion
of Crimea, like in March 2014, wants to become a part of the
Russian Federation. But which part?
To find out the real will of the people of Crimea, we ne-ed a
new referendum under strict international control, respectable, not
hastily but slowly and carefully prepared over several years.
Whatever the outcome of the referendum, the descen-dants of the
deportees should be given the right of repatria-tion. Control of
the area should be provided by special interna-tional forces and
Crimea sho-uld continue to be considered as a territory of Ukraine.
There should be three questions to the plebiscite: do you want
Cri-mea to remain a part of Ukrai-ne; to be incorporated into
Rus-sia; or do you want to live in an independent Crimean state. So
it was in 1955, when Saarland decided and even more recen-tly in
Scotland. This will be an honest and constructive appro-ach.
You can meet Professors Zubov and Snyder during debate at City
talks at 15:30 on Saturday.
Crimea as Russian Jerusalem? Explain to Tatars. FOTO -
TASR/AP
Ambassador Rastislav Ker recommends which panels are most
interesting for him this year
To find out the real will of the people of Crimea, we need a new
referendum under strict international control, respectable, not
hastily but slowly and carefully prepared over several years.
It is a horrible job to choo-se only a few recommen-dations from
the Globsec menu, but if I have to I wo-uld not miss these
debates.
Keynote speech of David Cameron
My top pick would be the speech by British Prime Minis-ter David
Cameron, newly ree-lected leader of one of the key EU and NATO
countries.
Opening of conference, Friday at 1pm.
Lets talk about energy. It is about our safety
I also look forward to the Energy Security sessions. In my view
we have to do eve-rything to make energy (all types) only a normal
com-mercial commodity. Session speakers promise good debates.
Dynamic Visegrad: Energy, Growth, Competitiveness;
with the leaders of V4 countries, Friday at 4pm
Energy: A perfect (Dis)union?; with Vice President of the
European Commision Maro efovi, Saturday at 3pm
The USA: Still a superpower?
Maybe because I am biased and I still think the USA plays
an essential role in European security, I am really looking
forward to the session on US foreign policy.
US Foreign Policy: Still a European Power?; with US senator John
McCain;
Saturday at 5pm
Russian Bear and lessons from WWII
I recommend not to neglect our City talks this one: Are we
doomed to repeat the same mista-kes? poses the question which is
often looming in my head before I manage to fall asleep :-).
Globsec City Talks: Russian Bear Awake: Scenarios and
Strategies; with Carl Bildt,
former Swedish Prime Minister; Saturday at 11am
WWII: Are We Doomed to Repeat the Same Mistakes?;
with Timothy Snyder and Andrey Zubov; Saturday at
3.30pm
Our really big challenge: propaganda war
My Sunday choice is Session 4, since I think we seriously
underestimate the extent and impact of the ongoing infor-mation
war. It is equally hostile and maybe even more dangero-us than
conventional threats. My bonus is to meet Robert Pszczel again,
with whom I ran my first NATO liaison offices well more than 20
years ago. Since then, the world is even more complicated and
challen-ging.
Propaganda: Exploiting the Underbelly of Democracy;
with Yevhen Fedchenko director Stopfake.org and
Robert Pszczel, director of NATO information office;
Sunday at 9am
John McCain will be one of the most interesting panelists this
year at GLOBSEC. You can meet him during the Saturday evening
debate about US fo-reign policy.
FOTO - TASR/AP
NATO will be represented by Deputy Secretary General Alexander
Vershbow. Do not miss his Friday debate about military alliance
based on col-lective defense. FOTO - TASR/AP
ANDREY ZUBOV,Professor of History
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3FRIDAY 19 JUNE 2015 GLOBSEC DAILY www.dennikn.sk
GLOBSEC took place in the midst of the Ukrainian crisis when
every country in the world was deciding what their new strategy
was, what their future will look like. People left smarter then
they came.George Friedman Chairman of Stratfor
In just a few years, the Bratislava Global Security Forum has
become one of Europes premier venues for discussing international
security matters. And this years meeting comes at a critical moment
for all of us. Anders Fogh Rasmussen former Secretary-General of
NATO
GLOBSEC has become a Forum that has exceeded all expectations as
well as traditional CentralEuropean themes and become a
one-of-a-kind security and foreign policy platform.Miroslav
LajkSlovak Minister of Foreign Affairs
GLOBSEC is gradually taking a very honourable place among such
events as the Brussels Forum orthe Munich Conference with an
emphasis on Central and Eastern Europe as well as the EUs Eastern
neighbourhood.Konstantin von EggertEditor-in-Chief of the
Kommer-sant FM Radio
GLOBSEC has been important to this particular moment in our
history because it has permitted us to discuss in very pointed ways
such important issues as democracy, freedom, and human rights. John
Allen Former Commander of the U.S. Forces in Afghanistan
BEST QUOTES
10 years of Globsec: How do you remember it?
We ask several regulars of GLOBSEC why they always come back
without getting bored
Iveta Radiovformer Slovak Prime Minister
I still remember the very first and modest be-ginnings, which
already were high-quality.
Every year the conference is better-organized and after 10 years
has this good content small event transformed into a substantial
international happening. It is a dynamic story which I have
experienced as member of the NGO sector and also as a
politician.
Karel Schwarzenbergformer Czech Minister of Foreign Affairs
For me, GLOB-SEC has been since its begin-nings one of the most
important security confe-rences in Europe.
It surprises me how well pre-pared and organized it is. I also
come here with pleasure. If you see that there is only a small
group of people behind it, it is a big success for Slovakia.
Grigorij MesenikovPresident of Slovak think-tank IVO
I have attended the majority of GLOBSEC confe-rences, including
the first, modest ones. Over these
years, GLOBSEC has changed and it has gained importance even at
the European level. I have only good memories from it and look
forward to it.
Zbynk Pavlak Jagello 2000 Association
It is not easy to find the strongest moment of 10 years of
Globsec. But one is re-
ally exceptional: when we suc-cessfuly started a new tradition
of Czech & Slo-vak Transatlantic
Award, at GLOBSEC 2012. To-gether, GLOBSEC and Days of NATO in
Ostrava stepped up to a higher dimension.
Alexandr Vondraformer Czech Minister of Defence
In 10 years, Bratislava became an im-portant center of security
talks in Europe. Be-cause of this, we
Praguers come enthusiactically every year to see how this event
is bigger and better. We do not have a conference like this in our
city.
Dniel BrthaCentre for Euro-Atlantic Integration and
Democracy
GLOBSEC happened to be part of my life 10 years ago, when about
a dozen foreign
guests (including me) mainly from youth sections of the Atlantic
Treaty Associations of the Visegrad countries, were invited to a
very successful Slovak event. My friends had big unrealistic
dreams, but GLOBSEC has proved that even the founders could not
dream big enough. Im happy I was involved and followed such an
extraordinary success from the front row.
Martin BtoraAdviser to the Slovak President Andrej Kiska
I managed to invite Zbigniew Brzezinski to the GLOBSEC two years
ago. It was a pleasure
to listen to him. Although not everyone agrees with what he
says, he has a unique gift to think and talk as simple as possible.
But still he accurately captures the essence of a prob-lem he is
talking about. There was also one Russian official in 2009. After
his speech the crowd asked him: Tonight, we openly discuss about
and criti-cize our governments. Can you
also tell us something similar about Russia? And who are your
allies? He told them he is a professional, so they should not
expect him to criticize his own government. We have allies, he
said, but if you ask if we have friends, I tell you, that we are
talking about politics here. It was something similar to the quote
of former British PM Lord Palmerson, who in the 19th century said
we do not have changeless friends or enemies, we only have fixed
interests. GLOBSEC is a useful forum.
Robin Shepherd International Affairs at the Henry Jackson
Society
GLOBSEC started out well, against even its founders wil-dest
expectations. It then proceeded
to just get better and better un-til it emerged as, by a wide
mar-gin, the most important yearly conference in Central and
Eas-tern Europe, putting to shame every other foreign and security
conference in all of Europe in the process.
FOTO - TASR
Every year the conference is organized better and after 10 years
from a good content small event it has transformed into a
substantial international happening.
Iveta Radiovformer Slovak Prime Minister
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FRIDAY 19 JUNE 2015 GLOBSEC DAILY4
the next thing is you cultivate member states among the EU to
varying degrees, like Hunga-ry, Slovakia, Cyprus, Greece or the
Czech Republic. If you have a pro-Russian voting block insi-de the
EU then the EU cannot make policy.
When Putin is watching whats happening in Ukraine, is he
satisfied?
I will say the same thing I sa-id a year ago. This is a
strategic disaster for Russia because its strategy depends on
balancing between the European Union and China and when you
aliena-te one of them then you are for-ced to lean to the other.
Whats happened is that Russia is beco-ming more and more a
satellite of China. I dont think its great geopolitics or strategy.
The sud-den tilt to China is a mistake be-cause it limits Russias
options in the future. But we are in a si-tuation where everybody
loses. Only China is winning.
But Moscow cant say that...
Russias regime cannot acknowledge that they have made the world
hostile. They expected that as soon they went into Crimea
everything would collapse, but it did not happen, even when they
entered Don-bas with the same expectations. Although the Ukrainian
state is very weak and needs lots of help it hasnt collapsed and
con-tinues to exist. Now places like
Kharkiv, Odessa and Dnipropet-rovsk are much more Ukraine
orientated
Putin has helped them to find a Ukrainian identity?
That happened immediately after the invasion of Crimea a year
ago and its very sad. The idea of Russian civilization is fi-ne if
you are reading Dostoevsky for example, but when Russian
civilization is defined as politics then people are forced to make
a choice. The moment when Russian tanks crossed the Ukra-inian
border Ukrainian citizens had to make a choice. Then Ukrainians are
forced to define Russia as a hostile and diffe-rent society;
millions of Ukra-inians have said this, including Russian-speaking
Ukrainians. When you say that Russkiy mir is more than just
civilization, you can expect resistance. You cannot say every place
where they speak English, like Canada or Nevada, is part of the
British Empire. People will be happy to read Shakespeare in school,
but that does not mean that they will welcome the British navy. So
the invasion of Ukraine is a huge historical turning point. Its the
first time for a long time that people in that part of the world
can choose and now they have chosen and its part of the Russian
strategic failure.
Was the western dream of democratic Russia, even Oba-mas attempt
at a reset nai-ve?
Foreign war is often done as a substitute, for example when you
dont want to make reforms. Fighting the war in Ukraine was a way
for Putin to consolidate his position without actually doing
anything for Russian so-ciety. This is true for all kind of
regimes. When the USA invaded Iraq in 2003, which was also in my
view a strategic disaster, what I said at the time was that it does
make leaders too popular and thus bound for a fall. The difference
is that in a democra-cy there is a way out. Eventually you can
elect somebody from a different party. Russia doesnt have this
option because it is not a democracy. This means that no one has a
way out of this.
In comparison with Cen-tral Asian leaders Putin is still young
so he can rule for deca-des...
Because of their story abo-ut Maidan as an American plot and the
fear there could be a Maidan at Red Square they have put a lot of
money into the se-curity apparatus, from FSB, and the Night Wolves
to Chechen paramilitaries, they have some kind of security
pluralism. In preparing for a situation which will never happen,
since there will never be a Maidan on Red Square, they have
overprepared and this is when something bad can happen. They have
created too many guys with too many guns who dont have real jobs
because there is no Maidan and no real Russian opposition.Complete
interview can be found at www.globsec.org
In a few days the EU will very probably prolong the sanctions
against Russia, are they working? Are they an effective enough way
for the West to contain Russia in Ukraine after the annexation of
Crimea and the support of separatism in the east of the
country?
The sanctions are primarily important because they demon-strate
the existence of unity and the capacity for decision making of the
European Union. One can never be sure how sanctions will affect the
targeted coun-try because there are so ma-ny variables at play. The
main purpose of the sanctions is to demonstrate that the Europe-an
Union is united enough to follow through with this policy. If you
ask me if its enough, no, clearly its not enough. Russia is a very
opaque authoritarian regime which is very resistant to outside
influence, for better or for worse. If Ukraine is a fra-gile state
under partial military occupation with obvious eco-nomic and
political problems, sanctions are a necessary tactic for the
immediate moment, but the real strategy is to take time and
financial resources to try to strengthen the Ukrainian state.
A year ago you proposed in an article that the EU sho-uld offer
candidate status for Ukraine. But as we saw recen-tly, the Riga
Eastern Partner-ship Summit was a big disap-pointment without big
steps forward. Is Europe afraid of Ukraine?
Generally I would say the idea of prospective membership is a
very positive thing. It was very positive for Slovakia, Czech
Republic, Estonia and Hungary. The present situation is similar to
that after 1989. Poland was not going to the EU immedia-tely after
1989 but future mem-bership was a very important prospect. So even
if it took 15 years, as it did, you had this target, this idea that
if you are doing the right things you will be rewarded. Ukrainians
are not stupid, they know in any case that they wont be full
members of the EU tomorrow or in five years. Rather than say we
cant do this in ten years - which eve-ryone knows anyway - its
better to say that in principle member-ship is possible if you do
the ri-ght things. You cant stop enlar-gement because each example
shows its possible. If Slovakia or Romania can be in the EU, why
not Ukraine, honestly?
Arent the military actions of Mr. Putin an attempt to stop
Ukraine from being a mo-re modern European country?
It doesnt seem that Russia has an interest in annexing eas-tern
territories; if it did it could - who would stop them. Russia
doesnt seem to care about the population of these territories. If
they cared they would not start a war which costs tho-usands of
lives, injuries, and millions of displaced people. Ruining peoples
lives is a stran-ge way to show concern. But I think you are right
that Russian leaders believe that they have an interest in
disrupting the Ukra-inian state, but its much bigger than that.
They want to disrupt the whole process of European integration of
which Ukraine is only one example.
We see that Putin has so-me allies among the radical left and
right wings. Is he a new prototype of a nationa-list who radicals
admire?
I think its a question for the radicals. There are three things:
firstly, some of the po-pulists and fascists are getting their
money and attention from Putin and pretty much every-one likes to
receive money, the second thing is about some ideological
affinities especial-
ly with the anti-human rights, anti-sexual rights and
mino-rities agendas, and thirdly, a common interest in destroying
the EU. The Russian strategy is essentially destructive, to turn
the European Union into a big mass of nation-states in which Russia
would be relatively more powerful. The EU is essentially the best
way of life ever offered in the history of the West; the Russian
offer is to destroy that in the name of a Donetsk-type
lifestyle.
European parliament wants to monitor the finan-cing of populist
parties by Russia, but is the bigger prob-lem not politicians like
Fico or Orban from traditional parties who are fighting aga-inst
the sanctions?
The Russian strategy has several different levels. One is you
support true radicals, Nazis, fascists or people who can cau-se a
lot of troubles, another is you support the populist right, people
against the EU, then you support separatism of all kind claim that
the Scottish referen-dum was falisified, friendly sup-port of UKIP
in England; and
Foreign war is often done as a substitute, for example when you
dont want to make reforms. Fighting the war in Ukraine was a way
for Putin to consolidate his position without actually doing
anything for Russian society.
Snyder: There will be no Maidan on Red Square
Kremlin wants to disrupt the whole process of European
integration of which Ukraine is only one example, says historian
and Yale professor Timothy Snyder
Timothy David Snyder (1969) is an American historian, author,
and academic. He is a professor at Yale University, specializing in
the history of Central and Eastern Europe, and the Holocaust.
FOTO N - VLADIMR IMEK
MIREK TDAreporter, Dennk N