Investor Update January 2016 Pride & Treasure of Thailand
Investor UpdateJanuary 2016
Pride &
Treasure of
Thailand
Overview
Performance
Industry Outlook 2016
Overview Performance Industry Outlook 2016
Contents
1
Indigenous (21%)
Imported Refined Petroleum Products 63 KBD
895 KBD (**)
Source: PTIT
Remark : (*)Refined product from refineries = 956 KBD, including domestic supply of LPG from GSPs and Petrochemical Plants = 100 KBD
(**) Not included Inventory
KBD = Thousand Barrels per day
Import (79%)
Crude/ Condensate873 KBD
RefinedProducts1056 KBD*
Domestic
Crude/ Condensate 244 KBD
Supply Production Sales
Export
225 KBD
Oil Balance Thailand: Jan – Sep 2015
244 KBD
Adequate refining capacity maintains the stability of supply
Total Refining Capacity in Thailand: 1,097 KBD
PTT’s Associated Refineries : 800 KBD
(TOP, PTTGC, SPRC, IRPC)
Other Refineries : 297 KBD(ESSO, BCP)
RefinedProducts225 KBD
2
Crude Export 0 KBD
936 KBD
Overview Performance 3Q/2015 Outlook
Chevron28%
PTTEP30%
Others42%
Natural Gas Balance: Jan – Sep 2015
Gulf of Thailand (70%)
Power (60%)
Industry (14%)
NGV (6%)
Petrochemical Feedstock
(14%)
IndustryHousehold
Transportation(6%)
Ethane/ Propane/LPG/NGL
LPG/NGL
Remark: MMSCFD = Million Cubic Feet @ Heating Value 1,000 Btu/ft3
3,392 MMSCFD
Main driver of the Thai economy
Supply Production Sales
3
LNG28%
Myanmar72%
Bypass Gas878
MMSCFD
942 MMSCFD (20%)
Methane 1,572 MMSCFD
Onshore (3%)
142 MMSCFD
6 GSPsTotal Capacity
2,740 MMSCFD @ Actual Heat
Import (27%)
1,326 MMSCFD
Overview Performance Industry Outlook 2016
81%
71%19%
29%
2001 2014
Revenue
Net Income
Affiliate
PTT
702
1,716
IPO
1 As of 11 December 2015 : Avg.THB/US$ exchange rate of 362 As of 30 September 20153As of December 2014
Largest company on Thai Stock exchange
Market cap ~US$37bn1 or ~ THB 1.3 trillion1
Group companies: 11.0%1 of Thai Stock Exchange market
capitalization
Majority owned by Thai government (66%)
51% by Ministry of Finance
15% by Vayupak Fund
Fully integrated and highly diversified over the entire O&G
value chain
International exploration and production business with 777
mmboe 3 of proved reserves in 2014
Sole operator and owner of gas transmission pipelines and
GSPs in Thailand
Largest refinery group in Thailand with stakes in 4 of 6
refineries in the country
Largest petrochemical producer group in Thailand with
stakes in 6 of 8 major petrochemical plants
Leading oil marketing business with 1,417 retail stations
and 40%2 of market share by volume
International oil trading business having traded 74.2 bn
liters 3 in 2014
Coal business assets in Indonesia, Madagascar, and
Brunei
New Power Flagship (GPSC) to capture opportunity in
neighboring ASEAN countries
PTT Public Limited Company (“PTT”) Robust revenue and Net Income growth since IPO (MMUSD)
12,553
87,223
International and local recognition
Thailand best borrower award
2014Best CEO
Best CFO
Best Managed Company
Best Corporate Governance
Best Investor Relations
Best Corporate Social
Responsibility
Best Commitment to Strong
Dividend Policy
SET Awards
Top Corporate
Governance Report
Award 2010 & 2011
Best Corporate Social
Responsibility Awards
2011 & 2012
93rd Fortune Global
500 in 201584th in 2014
81st in 2013
95th in 2012
Platts Top 250 Global Energy
Company
24th Overall Global
Performance in Asia of 2014
180th in 2014144th in 2013
167th in 2012
171th in 2011
Dow Jones Sustainability
Index (DJSI)
DJSI Member 2013-2014
(Listed in 2011)
4
PTT is Thailand’s Largest Energy Company
Overview Performance Industry Outlook 2016
Ministry of Finance holds majority stake in PTT PTT ratings at Thai sovereign level
Thai Ministry of Finance
51%
VayupakFund1
15%
Public 34%
Kingdom of Thailand –FC
Baa1 BBB+ BBB+ A-
PTT – FC Baa1 BBB+ BBB+ A-
PTT – LC Baa1 BBB+ A- A
Largest market cap on the Thai Stock Exchange
Note: As September 2015
• Foreign 15%
• Thai 19%
PTT PTTEP PTTGC TOP IRPC GPSC Total Others
Market cap (BNUSD)2
21.8 7.9 7.2 3.5 2.4 1.0 43.8 371.6
% of SET 5.9% 2.1% 1.9% 0.9% 0.6% 0.3% 12.0% 88.0%
Moody’s rating Baa1 Baa1 Baa2 Baa1 Ba1 N.A. - -
S&P rating BBB+ BBB+ BBB BBB BB+ N.A. - -
PTT’s Strategic Importance to Thailand
5
1 The Vayupak Fund is a registered investment management fund in Thailand in which the Government is a major unit holder. The Government has rights of first refusal with respect to
any of our shares to be sold by the fund. Although the fund’s shareholding may be considered to be beneficially owned by the Government under international standards, such shares
are not considered to be owned by the Government for the purposes of Thai law or our compliance with certain of our debt covenants 2 Based on data as of 30 September 2015/ Avg. THB/US$ exchange rate of 35.96
5
Overview Performance Industry Outlook 2016
http://www.jcr.co.jp/english/http://www.jcr.co.jp/english/
Our Major Businesses & Activities
E&P
Gas
PTTEP 65.29% Exploration and Production
Upst
ream
Oil Marketing
Int’l Trading
Dow
nst
ream
Petrochemical
& Refining
PTTGC 48.91% Petrochemical Flagship
TOP 49.10% Integrated Refinery & Petrochemical
IRPC 38.51% Integrated Refinery & Petrochemical
SPRC 5.41% Stand alone Complex Refinery
Infr
ast
ructu
re
Coal
GPSC 22.58% Power Flagship
• Oil Marketing 100% Retail service Stations and commercial Marketing
• Int’l Trading 100% Import/Export/Out-Out trading of petroleum and
petrochemical products
Inte
rmedia
te PTT PLC
• Gas Pipeline 100% Sole owner/operator of the Transmission pipeline
• S&M 100% Supply & Marketing of Natural Gas
• GSP 100% Extracting Hydrocarbon contents in NG for Petrochemical’s feedstock
6
Business Areas ActivitiesCompany PTT’s holding (%)
6
PTT Energy Resources 100% Coal Business
Power
Overview Performance Industry Outlook 2016
PTT AspirationStrategic direction and target to achieve “Big-Long-Strong” aspiration
“Thai Premier Multinational Energy Company”
7
Strong
TOP Quartile ROIC
Listed in DJSI since 2011
Long
Ranked Fortune 93rd
Big
Technologically Advanced and Green National Oil Company
Overview Performance 2H/2015 Outlook
Pride & Treasure of Thailand
8
Overview Performance Industry Outlook 2016
6,406 1,129
14,988
21,927
34,867
17,970
5,270
51,080
37,119
19,241
30,265
(23,688)
2,321
9,906
11,878
8,374
2,902
5,915
PTTEP
PTT
Others
Refinery
Petrochem
84,485
9M/15 Performance: PTT Group: still strong core operations despite impairment
9
MMTHB
*including petroleum exploration expenses and royalties
OilVol. increased 2% mainly from increased demand from lower retail prices
Performance decreased from stock losses
TradingVol. increased 5% from no major T/AMargin dropped 53% from condensate business
Higher performance mainly from PTTLNG,
PTTT, and divestment of BCP
Margin
FX gainOPEX*
Share of
income
Interest exp. & income taxes
Other Income
77%
19,748
NCI
PTTEP
Others
GasGSP and Industrial margin squeezed
better NGV performance NG Sale Volume increase 4% mainly from new IPPs
Impairment loss on assets Avg. selling price decreased 29% Sales volume increased 5%
Petrochem
Olefins business declined from Polymer price dropped Refinery’s margin increased 10% Aromatics improved P2F margin 16%
Refinery
Avg. A/C GIM increased 64%
Aggregate intake increased 14%
ImpairmentPTTEP (65.29%) 34,956
PTTGE (100%) 1,187Total 36,143
178%
48%
29%
327%
104%
9M/2014 9M/2015
Overview Performance Industry Outlook 2016
Contents
Overview
Performance
Industry Outlook 2016
10
Overview Performance Industry Outlook 2016
E&P : Net loss in Q3 from settling once and for all the overhanging issue of impairment
Product Prices
Net Income (100%)
Sales Volume
Key Highlights
7.29 7.10 8.02* 7.47
59.3449.36
101.93
53.00
48.47 44.55
65.9347.22
Q2/15 Q3/15 9M/14 9M/15
Liquid ($/BBL)
Gas($/MMBTU)
Weighted Avg.($/BOE)
MMUSD
227 236 209 231
99 96 104 97
Q2/15 Q3/15 9M/14 9M/15
332
Liquid
Gas
KBOED
326
11
* Gas price, if excludes Vietnam 16-1 retroactive sale recording, is 8.08$ for 9M14
** Average selling price, if excludes Vietnam 16-1 retroactive sale recording is 66.24$ for 9M14
313
Q3/15
QoQ
• Avg. selling price slightly decreased, mainly from lower oil price • Sales volume increased slightly from Myanmar gas field recovery
from shutdown in Q2/15• Net loss in Q3 from non-recurring items, i.e., loss on impairment
(1,385 MMUSD), deferred taxes from USD functional currency and FX loss; while operationally registered a net profit of 264 MMUSD
YoY
• Avg. price significantly decreased from a slump on oil price • Volume increased from Zawtika full production & Hess acquisition• Net income declined from loss on impairments and other non-
recurring items in Q3/15• Registered net loss of 986 MMUSD
17%
8%
5% YoY2% QoQ
9M/14
170% YoY3,769% QoQ
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
3%
48%
28%
7%
328
9M/15
1,417
(986)(1,284)
35
*** Includes Impairment loss, Deferred tax from Functional currency, Current Tax from FX Revaluation, Gain/loss from Financial instruments, Gain/(loss)on FX, H1 incident Insurance Claim, and etc.
Q2/15
Non-recurring***
Recurring NI
Overview Performance Industry Outlook 2016
12
E&P : RoadmapNew investment opportunities assessed against the “new normal” in price and cost
Overview Performance Industry Outlook 2016
12
Business Unit Q2/15 Q3/15 QoQ 9M/14 9M/15 YoY
Gas- EBITDA 14,348 9,033 (37%) 45,120 32,643 (28%)
• S&M 3,145 1,260 (60%) 17,155 6,881 (60%)
• TM 6,784 4,541 (33%) 20,180 18,100 (10%)
• GSP 4,380 4,137 (6%) 16,372 9,433 (42%)
• NGV (2,488) (2,831) (14%) (15,102) (8,338) 45%
• Others 2,527 1,926 (24%) 6,515 6,567 1%
13
(Unit:MMTHB)
4,455 2,375 (47%) 11,760 10,757 (9%)
949 859 (9%) 5,400 2,548 (53%)
*MIS** Included Gas/Oil/Trading subsidiaries
13
Oil-EBITDA
Trading*-EBITDA
Total** 19,752 12,267 (38%) 62,280 45,948 (26%)
PTT EBITDA Performance Breakdown by BU’s:
Overview Performance Industry Outlook 2016
8.60
8.35
8.82
8.60
Q2/15 Q3/15 9M/14 9M/15
3% QoQ
4,704 4,685
4,4974,469
4,450
4,768 4,731 4,802
4,832 4,879 4,822
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q41,297 1,105 1,252 1,177
930 1,067 790 1,003
752 765 701 746
902 949 934 945
689 636 656 665309 300 317 309
Q2/15 Q3/15 9M/14 9M/15
Gas BU: NG volume slightly lower from EGAT/ Industry sector/ NGV
NG Sales Volume* NG Customer Breakdown
2013
2015
2014
MMSCFD
EGAT (24%)
IPP (21%)
SPP (15%)
GSP (20%)
Industry (14%)NGV (6%)
MMSCFD
4,6504,879
AVG.
4,688
4,845
4,589
4% YoY
NGV Sales Volume
Vol. MMCFD
309 300 317 309
QoQ
• NG volume decreased mainly from lower power sector (EGAT) and industry sector demand.
• NGV demand was lower, following gradual price rise amid other petros’ falling prices
YoY
• NG volume increase mainly due to higher new IPPs and GSP gas demand
• NGV demand declined slightly due to gradual retail price adjustment amid lower oil prices
Key Highlights
4,845
1% QoQ
ที่เพ่ิมข้ึนเป็นของ
* NG Sales Volume include Inter-BA Transaction
K.Ton/Day
14
2% YoY
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
4,822
Overview Performance Industry Outlook 2016
9M/14 9M/15 %YoY
LPG Ex-GSP 333 470 41%
Naphtha 855 451 -47%
Fuel Oil 603 317 -47%
Feed Cost 391 364 -7%
858 876 832
577
444
505
405
333 333 333 333
443 497
470 389 394 391
382 380359 352
610 607 591
437
318
367
265
Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15
3,145 1,260
17,155 6,881
6,784 4,541
20,180
18,100 4,380
4,137
16,372
9,433
(2,488) (2,831)(15,102)
(8,338)
2,527 1,926
6,515
6,567
Gas - EBITDA
MMTHB
Others
TM
GSP14,348
Q2/15 Q3/15 9M/14* 9M/15
9,033
S&M
NGV
609 652
2,025 1,935 166 171
549 524
496 548
1,509 1,596
221 211
575 636
10 9
22
Q2/15 Q3/15 9M/14 9M/15
1,591
GSP Sales Volume
LPG (41%)
kTon
1,502
4,658
6% QoQ
1% YoY
Gas BU : Lower margin and one-time compensation pressured performance
QoQ
• GSP margin pressured by more petchem price decrease vs feed cost, despite LPG price lifting
• GSP sales volume increased due to the return of GSP#1 from major T/A
• EBITDA dropped from squeezed S&M and GSP margins, as well as a one-time compensation to EGAT for 4th pipeline delay (charged on TM
and S&M)
YoY
• Lower EBITDA performance, mainly from GSP and S&M margin squeeze, despite decreased NGV loss
Propane (13%)
NGL (11%)
Ethane (34%)
Key Highlights
37% QoQ
GSP Feed Cost vs Petroleum price
Naphtha
USD/Ton
Feed Cost***
LPG Ex-GSP*
* Effective on February 2, 2015** MOPS HSFO 180 CST*** Revised feed cost calculation from per sale volume to per GSP production volume
45,120
Pentane (1%)
28% YoY
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
4,713
32,643
15
Fuel Oil**
*Restated
Overview Performance Industry Outlook 2016
Gas Business Roadmap
Key ProgressDemand & Supply
5th Onshore Gas Pipeline
Approved by NEPC and wait for the Cabinet approval within 2015
16
Commence gas flow on 17th Sep 2015
Design Capacity: 1,400 mmscfd
Customer: Power Plant, NGV,
Industrial Estate
4th Onshore Gas Pipeline
Construction completed 66.21%, consisting of Jetty and LNG tank
LNG Terminal Phase 2
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
Overview Performance Industry Outlook 2016
0.91
0.60
0.82 0.77
Q2/15 Q3/15 9M/14 9M/15
841 775 2,039 2,362
3,614 1,600
9,721 8,395
Q2/15 Q3/15 9M/14 9M/15
4,455
11,760
2,375
10,757
Oil BU : Fallen oil price, hence stock loss weighed on performance
Contribution Margin 1/
MMTHBTHB/Liter
1/Excluded non–oil business
17
••
••
••
Oil
Non-Oil*
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
* EBITDA from Operating
6,214 6,158
18,448 18,758
Q2/15 Q3/15 9M/14 9M/15
Sales Volume2/
MM Liter
2/ Only PTT and PTTRM
6% YoY
2% YoY
9% YoY
(119) (1,765) (902) (3,113)
Petroleum Prices
Stock Gain/Loss(MMTHB)
34% QoQ
1% QoQ
Oil - EBITDA
USD/BBL
(Average Prices)
47% QoQ
104 106 101
74
5261 56
48 45
30
80
130
Q1/14 Q3/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Jul Aug Sep
Overview Performance Industry Outlook 2016
1st Platinum PTT station in Cambodia with plans to increase to 70 PTT stations within the year 2020 (currently 29 stations)
PTT Lubricants and IRPC entered Industrial Lubricants market in New Zealand
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
Oil BU : Overseas expansion continues
Laos
CambodiaPhilippines
Myanmar
PTT plans to expand the no. of stations in neighboring countries, especially in major ASEAN countries
Export to over 30 countries
18
Overview Performance Industry Outlook 2016
62.60 49.58
104.18
54.89
14% QoQ
0.07 0.06
0.12
0.06
Q2/15 Q3/15 9M/14 9M/15
50% YoY
* PTT only : FX Adjusted
949 859
5,400
2,548
Q2/15 Q3/15 9M/14 9M/15
20,248 19,470
58,098 60,785
Q2/15 Q3/15 9M/14 9M/15
4% QoQ
Trading BU :Margin continued to be squeezed from sustained low oil price
Contribution Margin*
Trading - EBITDA*
Sales Volume
Key Highlights
MMTHB
MM Liter
19
QoQ
• Lower margins mainly from timing mismatch of paper settlement
• Sales volume lowered from decline in Out-Out activities supplied to Indonesia
YoY• Margins squeezed from sustained low oil prices • Sales volume increased mainly due to the absence of
refinery turnarounds in 2015. On the contrary, high GRM encourages refineries to maximize productions
• EBITDA declined, mainly from squeezed margins on domestic condensate
* PTT only : FX Adjusted
53% YoY
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
Contribution Margin (THB/Liter)
NWS ($/BBL)
47% YoY5% YoY
21% QoQ
9% QoQ
Overview Performance Industry Outlook 2016
Trading BU :Contract with Petro-Ecuador - Growth Strategy Unlocked
GROWTH STRATEGYStep out into new markets for global coverage
GLOBAL TRENDUS Shale Renaissance changes Latin America crude trade flow
STRATEGY UNLOCKEDCaptured crude paradigm shift opportunity by proceeding long term Latin America crude supply contract with EP Petro-Ecuador
BENEFITs1. Support TBU’s aspiration on generating revenue by capturing opportunity in new region2. Sustainably establish business for prospective London office by developing new trading
network and new trading structure in Western region
CRUDE GRADEOriente / Napo Crude Oil
AGREEMENT PERIODJune 2015 – Dec 2020
TOTAL QUANTITY116.64 MMBBL
One extra SPOT in Sep 15
20
Overview Performance Industry Outlook 2016
Stock gain/lossnet NRV
8,774 7,997
15,659
31,953
6,976
(10,013) (9,877)(6,251)
Q2/15 Q3/15 9M/14 9M/15
84%
91%
79%80%
**Performance BCP 4 mths
115 74
289
96
246 233
288 245
Q2/15 Q3/15 9M/14 9M/15
61.3 49.7104.0
54.3
6.97 5.51
3.58
6.93
9.70
1.78 2.98
5.43
13.14
5.76 5.22
8.58
Q2/15 Q3/15 9M/14 9M/15
GRM/GIM*
Refinery Utilization*
USD/BBL
A/C GRM
A/C GIMMkt GRM
Dubai
Net Income (100%)
U-Rate (%) Q2/15 Q3/15 9M/14 9M/15
Aggregated U-Rate
99 97 88 98
TOP 107 107 95 107
IRPC 89 83 79 85
Aggregated Intake (KBD) 653668
2% QoQ
578
AromaticsAromatics Production
BZ-ULG95
PX-ULG95
Refining BU:Stock losses dented Q3 performance
21
BZ: 36%
QoQ
PX: 5%
2.81 -4.32 -1.34 -1.68StockGain/Loss
T/A(23 days )
BZ: 67%
YoY
PX: 15%
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
A/C GIMQoQ: 56%
YoY: 64%
USD/Ton
657
14% YoY Total NIYoY345%
T/A
(46 days)
*Adjusted to exclude BCP
IRPC
TOP
SPRC
BCP
15,750
(2,016)
5,782
25,702
Total NIQoQ113%
OperatingIncome
Operating NIYoY104%
Operating NIQoQ9%
Overview Performance Industry Outlook 2016
Refineries : Projects Updates
22
Ongoing Projects:
LABIX : 99% progress
COD: 1Q16
SPPs : 97% progress
COD: 2Q16
(2 SPPs: Total power capacity 239 MW)
UHV: 98% progress
COD: Dec 2015
PPE+PPC: (Total PP Capacity 775 KTA)
COD: 2H17
Status
Total investment = $236.5 MM
• EPC awarded with Sinopec : May, 2015
IPO: during IPO Roadshow
(Targeted Listing will be in early Dec 15)
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
Overview Performance Industry Outlook 2016
http://www.thaioilgroup.com/http://www.thaioilgroup.com/
23
5.40 4.16 4.24
5.16
7.59
0.91
3.84 4.22
Q2/15 Q3/15 9M/14 9M/15
100% 101% 102% 101%
A/C GRM 10% YoY
85% 57% 84% 77%
1,375 1,234
1,576
1,266 1,343 1,135
1,587
1,209
Q2/15 Q3/15 9M/14 9M/15
271 235
394
241
391 397 400 374
Q2/15 Q3/15 9M/14 9M/15
Net Income (100%)
Aromatics
Unit : MMTHB
7,3898,974
4,4851,207
26,780
20,152 20,143
15,8122,325
-3,064 -2,259 -2,100
Q2/15 Q3/15 9M/14 9M/15
PTTGC
HMC
Others
1,421
Olefins U-Rate89%
93%87%
93%
Olefins
USD/Ton
BTXU-Rate
Refineries
CDU U-Rate
A/C GRMMkt GRM
BZ-CondPX-Cond
2.22 -3.22 -0.86 -1.62StockGain/LossNet NRV
Petrochemical BU:Lower performance from stock loss and pressured petrochemical prices
9,714
HDPEPrice
PPPrice
HDPE: 10%
QoQ
PP: 15%
BZ-Cond: 13%
QoQ
PX:-Cond 2%
BZ-Cond: 39%
YoY
PX-Cond: 7%
HDPE: 20%
YoY
PP: 24%
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
216 183 178 207
USD/TonUSD/BBL
Mkt P2FQoQ 15%Aromatics
Mkt P2F
A/C GRM 88% QoQ
Mkt P2FYoY: 16%
24,521
18,043
Total NIYoY26%
Total NIQoQ85%
Operating Income
Stock Gain/loss net NRV-PTTGC
Operating NI YoY25%
Operating NI QoQ39%
Overview Performance Industry Outlook 2016
Petrochemical : Strategic Plans : Major Projects
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
24
Overview Performance Industry Outlook 2016
16 14
-3-1Q2/15 Q3/15
113
73
86
9M/14 9M/15
Other Businesses : Coal - SAR (95.26%)Additional cost reductions relieved the effect of price decline
EBITDA & Net Income (100%)
Sales Volume
Key Highlights
MMUSD
USD/Ton
1,372 1,179
5,128 4,519 316 446
2,474
1,335
1,688 1,625
7,602
5,854
Q2/15 Q3/15 9M/14 9M/15
kTon
Jembayan
Sebuku
Avg. Selling Price
Cash Costs
4% QoQ
Avg. Selling Price & Cash cost
New Castle
4%
23% YoY
25%
Q2/15 Q3/15 9M/14 9M/15
EBITDA 13%
2%
17%
15%
16%
9%
QoQ• Cash cost decreased mainly from: - Additional cost savings from further negotiations with
contractors as well as lower fuel cost from lower diesel price- Sales of coal produced from previous quarter
• NI increased mainly from the decrease in depreciation from lower production volumes
YoY• Sales volume decreased as coal price dropped from
oversupply
• Cash cost improved from cost saving initiatives, reduced admin costs and mine plan review 25
NI 67%
QoQ YoY
YoYQoQ
35%
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
56
5553
65
55
34
4638
43
39
66 60 59
73
61
Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 9M/14 9M/15
EBITDA
NI
Overview Performance Industry Outlook 2016
http://www.straitsasia.com/http://www.straitsasia.com/
474566
1,181
1,571
Q2/15 Q3/15 9M/14 9M/15
Net Income (100%)Sales Volume
Key Highlights
MMBahtGWh 33% YoY
Other Businesses : Power - GPSC (22.58%)Better performance supported by dividend income from affiliate
1,842
1,038
4,061 4,505
1,254 1,117
3,702 3,604
Q2/15 Q3/15 9M/14 9M/15
‘000 Ton
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
Capacity
Power 11%
Steam 11%
Steam 3%
19% QoQ
QoQ
• Lower sales volume due to Sriracha plant’s Combustion Inspection (CI), EGAT’s dispatch instruction to reserve for shutdown as well as customers’ maintenance shutdowns (PTTGC ARO 2/ TOCGC).
• Higher net income from dividend income of 288MB from RatchburiPower (RPCL).
YoY• Higher power sales volume as there was a major maintenance
shutdown of Sriracha plant in Q1/14 which also caused higher repair and maintenance costs.
• Better performance due to increased power sales and dividend received from RPCL in Q3/15.
PowerSteam
Power 44%
26
Diversified Assets
QoQ
YoY
Natural Gas Hydro Renewable
1,517 MW(79%)
347 MW(18%)
53 MW(3%)
Natural Gas Hydro Renewable
Overview Performance Industry Outlook 2016
http://www.straitsasia.com/http://www.straitsasia.com/http://www.straitsasia.com/http://www.straitsasia.com/
Other Businesses : Power – GPSC (22.58%)CUP-4 Project (Growth alongside PTT Group)
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
27
27
CUP-4 Phase 1
Name: Central Utility Plant Project 4 (CUP-4)
Type: Gas-fired Cogeneration Power Plant/ Utilities
Location: PTT’s WEcoZi, Asia Industrial Estate (AIE), Rayong
Province
Estimated Capacity: Phase 1: 45MW, 70 T/H (up to 390 MW,
900 T/H)
Investment:
23,746
(26,582)
84,485
19,748 19,903 9,039
82,874
50,438
Q2/15 Q3/15 9M/14 9M/15
47%
17%
6%
13%
16%1%
PTT - Oil &
TradingPTT - Gas
Others
PTTEP
61.3 49.7104.0
54.3
PTT Consolidated Performance: 9M/2015
Dubai (USD/BBL) 9M/159M/14
36%
44%
14%
3%3%
46%
14%6%
15%
17%2%
PTT - Oil & Trading
PTT - Gas
Others
PTTEP
536,678 505,066
2,039,086
1,557,327
Q2/15 Q3/15 9M/14 9M/15
-120%
98%
42%
50%
30%
PTT
PetChem
Others
PTTEPRefining
Net Income
Unit : MMTHB
EBITDA
Net Income
RevenueRevenue
EBITDA
53%
13%
6%
12%
16%0%
56%
19%
5%
15%
3%2%
Revenue
EBITDA
Net Income
87,61059,730
240,277 219,079
Q2/15 Q3/15 9M/14 9M/15
28
PetChem
Refining
PetChem
Refining
24%
6%
32%
9%
Recurring NI39%
Total NI212%
19% 48%
Recurring net income = Net Income adjusted one-time transactions
Recurring NI 55% Total NI
77%
Recurring Net Income
Net Income
Overview Performance Industry Outlook 2016
0.39 0.35
1.401.38
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
(0.1)
0.1
0.3
0.5
0.7
0.9
2014 Q3/15
Other Liabilities
PP&E
Others Non-
currentAssets
OtherCurrentAssets
L/TLiabilities(incl. due within 1 yr)
TotalEquity
MMTHB
Cash & S/T Invest
31 Dec 13 30 Sep 14
1,805,041 1,818,746
Statement of Financial Position
PTT Ratings at Sovereign Level
− FC : Moody’s (Baa1), S&P (BBB+),
JCR (A-), FITCH (BBB+)
− LC : Moody’s (Baa1), S&P (BBB+),
JCR (A), FITCH (A-)
Net Debt/EBITDA ≤ 2.0
Net Debt/Equity ≤ 1.0
1,105,147 1,130,082
441,067 424,685
387,484 358,668
316,757 312,745
1,054,694 1,087,773
697,000 663,779
498,761 474,628
1 2 3 4 5
1%
2,226,1802,250,455
30 Sep 1531 Dec 14
Assets slightly declined :
• Drop in trade A/R primarily from international
trading and oil business
• Drop in inventory mainly from legal reserve volume
of finished product
• Decrease in L-T investment from disposal of BCP and
capital reduction of SPRC
29
Overview Performance Industry Outlook 2016
7.71 8.75
13.43
22.40
30.5734.14 34.82
18.3321.06
29.58
37 24 36.5832.52
19.3316.08
2.50 2.85 4.006.75
9.25 10.5011.50
8.00 8.5010.25
13.00 13.00 13.0011.00
6.00
25% 25%
32.4% 32.6% 29.8% 30.1% 30.3% 30.8% 33 0%43.6% 40.4% 34.7% 34.9% 35.5% 40.0%
56.9% 37.3%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1H2015
Dividend Policy & Historical Payments
PTT’s minimum payout ratio
PTT is firmly committed to pay dividend at no less than 25% of net income
Baht / share
EPS
DPS
Dividend payout
30
Overview Performance 2H/2015 Outlook
Infrastructure55%
Gas13%
Oil & Trading
8%
M&A and Oversea
investment8%
LNG15%
R&D, Others1%
11,121 10,850 6,619 5,698 5,282
7,315 5,4664,430 3,191 3,272
1,817 609502 342 325
10,967 17,607
12,106 13,245 13,586
19,619
32,983
34,64946,042
29,008
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Infrastructure
Investment in JV andits subsHead Office andOthersOil and InternationalTradingNatural Gas
Unit: MMTHB
PTT: CAPEX (PTT and Wholly Owned Subsidiaries)
PTT plans to invest ~Bt 297bn* ($8bn) during 2016-2020
CAPEX Breakdown : 5 Years
By Business UnitJV &
Investment in
Subsidiaries
23%
31
67,514 68,517
51,47350,83958,306
* 2016-2020 budget approved by BOD at YE2015
Overview Performance Industry Outlook 2016
PTT 5-Years CAPEX Plan ̴Bt 297 bn
5th pipeline & extension
LNG, M&A and Investment Oversea
Overview
Performance
Industry Outlook 2016
Contents
Overview Performance Industry Outlook 2016
32
33
LNG Price Outlook and Key Drivers 2016
Bull Bear
• New LNG demand from emerging countries in South East Asia, Middle East, and Eastern Europe
• Positive outcomes from United Nation climate change conference in Paris (Nov)
• Faster-than-expected depletion of indigenous gas in Europe/Asia/South America
• EU policy for guidance of emission trading system (EU ETS) and gas diversification from Russia
• New LNG supply from Australian and US projects (GLNG, APLNG, Gorgon, and Sabine Pass)
• Restart of nuclear power plants in Japan and new commercial operation plants in Korea
• Wildcard LNG projects in Angola and Yemen might start up their production in 2016
• Existing gas price structures in India and China discourage domestic gas consumption
Henry Hub Outlook 2016 LNG Price Outlook 2016
LNG Market Key Drivers for 2016
Source: Wood Mackenzie, PIRA Remark: HH excludes liquefaction fees and freight costs
HH 2016 2.7 – 3.2 $/MMBTU
Long term LNG Price7 – 9 $/MMBTU
Spot LNG Price6 - 7 $/MMBTU
Price divergence
33
Overview Performance Industry Outlook 2016
34
PRICE SCENARIO
Sources: PRISM Business Plan (Oct.,15), IEA, EIA, OPEC, PIRA
Bearish global economy ButDemand Growth remains.
Shale cutback offsets Rising OPEC Supply.
Due to stock over hang, the market will start to tighten in 2H16.
FED Tightening Policy encourages volatile capital flow.
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
2015 Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16
$/BBL
Dubai Crude Price ScenarioCrude Oil Fundamental
92.00
93.00
94.00
95.00
96.00
97.00
2015 2016
MMBD
Demand
Supply
+1.83
+0.97
BALANCE PRISM Dubai Price Outlook 2016Assumption Brent – Dubai Spread Average = $1.5/BBL
BULL CASE
BEAR CASE
PRISM VIEW
$53 - $56
34
Overview Performance Industry Outlook 2016
REFINING BUSINESS
Source: PTT International Market Analysis Team, Energy Aspects, IEA
Total CDU and Condensate Splitter Capacity Additions/Closure
• Slowing global economy causes projects stalling. Lower refining capacity additions than earlier is expected before oil prices begin to flatter, especially in China.
• High crude inventories will continue to give refinery sector an edge over other sector in the energy business.
• PTT expects 2016 refinery margins remain stable (around 7-8 $/BBL) compare to year 2015.
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2015 2016 2017Africa Europe FSU Middle East Latin America North America Asia Total
MMBD
THE GOLDEN AGE REMAINS?
35
Overview Performance Industry Outlook 2016
2015 Asia crackers by capacity and age Ethylene and PE Margins Slightly Decline
513 501 579 590 547
834
524 464601 529
116 121126
234161 264 267
170188
1,556 1,569 1,604
1,448
1,188
1,375
1,2341,170
1,2421,1941,440 1,447 1,478
1,214
1,026
1,386
970 9031,072
1,006
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 . 2015 2016
USD/MT
HDPE-Ethy.
Ethy.-MOPS
HDPE Price
Ethylene Price
72% 74% 76%61%
72%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Total Capacity Domestic Demand Operating Rate (%)
Iranian Crackers Run at Low Rate during Sanction
KTA Operating Rate (%)
Source : IHSSource : PRISM, Oct2015
Olefins Outlook :Ethylene/PE: Margins to be Softer than This Year
Risk emerge after the lifting of Iran sanction next year. Iran will return to be one of key players with a very competitive feedstock
Old and uneconomical crackers in Japan will be closed by 2016 (2 Plants, 1,042 KTA)
China’s CTO/MTO projects still have several challenges such as limited economic growth, technical issues, environmental issues
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
China Japan Korea
Taiwan India SEA
Cracker Age in 2015, Years
Capaci
ty, m
tpa
Source : IHS 36
Overview Performance Industry Outlook 2016
Economics Oil & Refining LNG & Gas Petrochemical
Source : IHS
Propylene Margins Decline from Market Pressure
442333 402 408 354 388 289
117296 281
1,3691,279 1,301
1,032
833940
736
556
766 758
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
Q1/14Q2/14Q3/14Q4/14Q1/15Q2/15Q3/15Q4/15 . 2015 2016
USD/MT
Propy.-MOPS
Propylene Price
Source : PRISM, Oct2015
On-Purpose Production, Drive Propylene Market
Steam Cracker
7%FCC15%
PDH42%Metathesis
3%
MTO/CTO
33%
2015-2019 Propylene capacity additions by
sources (30 Million Ton)
MT
54 57 59
31 37 40
4
9 19
4
5
6 5
12
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2010 2015 2019
Steam Cracker FCCPDH MetathesisMTO/CTO Other% On Purpose
% On Purpose
Olefins Outlook :Propylene: Oversupply from New On-purpose Units Depresses Margin
2016 global operating rate will decline both of Propylene and PP due to capacity addition of propylene still outpace demand growth since 2014.
According to the Chinese Government self-sufficient policy, numbers of MTO/CTO plants gradually increase supported by subsidies and PDH plants are also gradually started up in China to fulfill future NEA demand growth.
China will be able to improve self sufficient ratio of PP to above 90% in next 5 years.
Structure Change of PP and Propylene market after huge investment in On-Purpose
On-purpose units have many challenges
• PDHs in China mostly rely on high cost propane import from Middle East and US.
• China’s CTO/MTO projects still have several challenges such as limited economic growth, technical issues, environmental issues.
37
Aromatics Outlook :PX Market Surplus Pressures Margin
PX Capacity also Outstripped Demand
2016 global operating rate will decline as capacity addition still outpaces demand growth
Overcapacity will force more rationalization
Lower oil prices reduce production costs
PX spreads are expected to be held at low levels
335 290424 353 325 363 353 351 378 367
1,262 1,2361,323
977
805
915
799 790848 844
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 . 2015 2016
USD/MT
PX -MOPS
PX Price
Source : PRISM, Oct2015
PX Cost and Competitiveness
0200400600800
1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,000
5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Integrated ME and US
New Integrated
Asia
Older/Smaller NEA
EuropeSmall and Non-
integrated
PlantClosure
USD/MT
Cumulate Capacity (Million Ton)
Source : IHS
1.0
1.7 1.9
77.4%76.8%
76.0%
70.0%
71.0%
72.0%
73.0%
74.0%
75.0%
76.0%
77.0%
78.0%
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
2014 2015 2016
Africa Europe Indian Sub. Middle East
N. America NEA S. America SEA
Demand Operating Rate
Unit : Million Ton Operating rate : %
5.0
2.2 3.0
Source : IHS 38
Overview Performance Industry Outlook 2016
Aromatics Outlook :BZ Remains Strong Thanks to Shale Gas
Stable Demand Growth from Derivative Support BZ Market BZ spreads are expected to be held at low levels
372 346 406 329191 250 216 152 211 219
1,299 1,292 1,305
953
671
803
662 591 682696
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 . 2015 2016
USD/MT
BZ -MOPS
BZ Price
Lighter Cracker Feedstock Reduces Benzene Output
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
Ethane Propane Butane LightNaphtha
HeavyNaphtha
Gas Oil
Ton BZ per ton Ethylene
Lighter Feedstock
Source : IHS
0.81.1
1.171.1%
71.8%
72.7%
69.0%
70.0%
71.0%
72.0%
73.0%
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
2014 2015 2016
Africa Europe Indian Sub. Middle East
N. America NEA S. America SEA
Demand Operating Rate
Unit : Million Ton Operating rate : %
Source : PRISM, Oct2015
The benzene market is inherently unbalanced with inelastic supply, nonintegrated demand and growing deep sea trade
2016 global operating rate will improved from 2015 operating rate due to demand growth outpace supply growth
Lighter feedstock reduces benzene output
2.3
0.7
1.1
Source : IHS 39
Overview Performance Industry Outlook 2016
Thank youPTT Public Company Limited – Investor Relations Department
Tel. +66 2 537-3518, Fax. +66 2 537-3948, E-mail: [email protected] Website: http://www.pttplc.com
Disclaimer
The information contained in our presentation is intended solely for your personal reference only. In addition, such information contains projections and forward-looking
statements that reflect our current views with respect to future events and financial performance. These views are based on assumptions subject to various risks and
uncertainties. No assurance is given that future events will occur, that projections will be achieved, or that our assumptions are correct. Actual results may differ
materially from those projected.
Petroleum Reserves and Resources Information
In this presentation, the Company discloses petroleum reserves and resources that are not included in the Securities Exchange and Commission of Thailand (SEC) Annual
Registration Statement Form 56-1 under “Supplemental Information on Petroleum Exploration and Production Activities”. The reserves and resources data contained in
this presentation reflects the Company’s best estimates of its reserves and resources. While the Company periodically obtains an independent audit of a portion of its
proved reserves, no independent qualified reserves evaluator or auditor was involved in the preparation of reserves and resources data disclosed in this presentation.
Unless stated otherwise, reserves and resources are stated at the Company’s gross basis. This presentation may contain the terms “proved reserves”, “probable reserves”,
and/or “contingent resources”. Unless stated otherwise, the Company adopts similar description as defined by the Society of Petroleum Engineers.
Proved Reserves - Proved reserves are defined as those quantities of petroleum which, by analysis of geological and engineering data, can be estimated with reasonable
certainty to be commercially recoverable, from a given date forward, from known reservoirs and under current economic conditions, operating methods, and government
regulations.
Probable Reserves - Probable reserves are defined as those unproved reserves which analysis of geological and engineering data suggests are more likely than not to be
recoverable.
Contingent Resources – Contingent resources are defined as those quantities of petroleum which are estimated, on a given date, to be potentially recoverable from
known accumulations, but which are not currently considered to be commercially recoverable. The reasons for non commerciality could be economic including market
availability, political, environmental, or technological.
40
40
mailto:[email protected]://www.pttplc.com/
41
Debt Profile : Control Cost & Manage Risk
Debt Portfolio
Managed debt according to financial risk and policy
ConsolidatedPTT OnlyUnit : MMTHB
: Cost of debts ~ 4.62%: % fixed-rate ~ 75%: Avg. debt life ~ 8.34 years
: Cost of debts ~ 4.44%: % fixed-rate ~ 70%: Avg. debt life ~ 7.40 years
181,399 204,560 191,998 208,298
384,548 387,935
125,972 83,985 81,861
259,665
305,127 268,304
307,371 288,545 273,859
467,963
689,675656,239
31 Dec 13 31 Dec 14 30 Sep 15 31 Dec 13 31 Dec 14 30 Sep 15
USD THB
(35%)
(65%)
(29%)
(71%)
(30%)
(70%)
(49%)
(51%)
(44%)
(56%)
(41%)
(59%)
Note : Data as of 30 Sep 15 (THB/USD = 36.5344 THB/JPY = 0.306478) Excluding liabilities from finance leases; Cost of debts includes withholding tax.
41Cost of debts, % fixed rate, and avg. debt life took into account the derivative transactions. Debt outstanding is reconciled with accounting.
42
Free Cash flow
59,687 49,440
Financing (47,378) (63,745)
Repayment Loans (15,815) (23,268)
Interest paid (9,547) (9,076)
Dividend paid (22,849) (31,401)
Received from share issue - -
Received from loans/Bonds 833 -
Investing9M/1413,420
9M/151,346
CAPEX (PP&E, Intangible asset) (21,639) (27,881)
Investment (Sub. &Affiliates) 1,034 12,067
Current investment 1,366 (8,047)
Dividend/Interest Received 29,749 23,724
Others 2,910 1,483
Operating9M/1446,267
9M/1548,094
Net Income 49,963 43,355
Changes in assets & liabilities (9,247) 10,966
Income Tax (1,983) (4,589)
Non-Cash Adjustment 7,534 (1,638)
Ending Cash & Cash Equivalents
76,235 43,741
Beginning Cash and Cash Equivalents
63,927 58,018
Cash In/(Out)
12,308 (14,277)
Adjustment
(1) 28
Statements of Cash Flows (PTT Only) : 9M/2015
42
Free Cash flow
73,740 45,052
Investing9M/14
(130,855)9M/15
(158,930)
CAPEX (PP&E, Intangible asset) (126,123) (129,116)
Investment (Sub. &Affiliates) (28,135) 13,993
Current investment (3,734) (60,522)
Dividend/Interest Received 14,900 12,135
Others 12,237 4,580
Operating9M/14
204,5959M/15
203,982
Net Income 84,485 19,748
Changes in assets & liabilities (8,452) 14,867
Income Tax (49,630) (40,969)
Non-Cash Adjustment 178,192 210,336
Ending Cash & Cash Equivalents
226,314 169,678
Beginning Cash and Cash Equivalents
196,854 234,212
Cash In/(Out)
29,460 (64,534)
Adjustment
(1,767) 11,972
Financing (42,513) (121,558)
Repayment Loans (110,635) (102,588)
Interest paid (23,735) (25,338)
Dividend paid (52,542) (43,332)
Received from share issue - 9,901
Received from loans/Bonds 144,756 39,799
Others (357) -
Statements of Consolidated Cash Flows : 9M/2015
43
Overview Performance Industry Outlook 2016
PTT Group Performance : 9M/2015 (YoY)
% share
9M/2014
(Restated)9M/2015 YoY
9M/2014
(Restated)9M/2015 YoY
PTT Net operating Income 37,119 19,241 -48% 37,119 19,241 -48%
E&P - PTTEP 45,905 -36,284 -179% 65.29% 30,265 -23,688 -178%
- PTTGC 20,152 15,812 -22% 48.89% 9,851 7,454 -24%
- HMC/PTTPL/PTTPM/PTTAC/PTTMCC/PMMA 4,369 2,231 -49% 40-50% 2,027 920 -55%
Petrochemical 24,521 18,043 -26% 11,878 8,374 -29%
- TOP 2,304 8,432 266% 49.10% 1,152 4,085 255%
- IRPC 544 8,955 1546% 38.51% 336 3,146 836%
- BCP 3,201 1,933 -40% 27.22% 872 553 -37%
Refining 5,782 25,702 345% 2,321 9,906 327%
Inter - PTTER, PTTGE -2,284 -4,074 -78% 100% -2,284 -4,086 -79%
Gas - PTTLNG/PTTNGD/ TTM(T)/ TTM (M) 4,108 4,162 1% 50-100% 2,991 3,659 22%
Utilities -GPSC/ TP/ DCAP 2,069 2,653 28% 20-30% 578 752 30%
Oil & Oth. - PTTT/SBECL/THAPPLINE/PTTRB/PTTANK/Others 2,144 5,850 173% 33-100% 1,617 5,590 246%
Others Business 6,037 8,591 42% 2,902 5,915 104%
Shared of Net Income from Affiliates 82,245 16,052 -80% 47,366 507 -99%
PTT Conso. Net Income 119,364 35,293 -70% 84,485 19,748 -77%
Equity Method % PTTPerformance 100%
Unit : MMTHB
44
Overview Performance Industry Outlook 2016
PTT Group Performance : Q3/2015 (QoQ)
45
% share
Q2/15 Q3/15 QoQ Q2/15 Q3/15 QoQ
PTT Net operating Income 9,019 3,584 -60% 9,019 3,584 -60%
E&P - PTTEP 1,312 -46,212 -3622% 65.29% 866 -30,170 -3584%
- PTTGC 8,974 1,207 -87% 48.89% 3,973 797 -80%
- HMC/PTTPL/PTTPM/PTTAC/PTTMCC/PMMA 740 214 -71% 40-50% 301 -1 -100%
Petrochemical 9,714 1,421 -85% 4,274 796 -81%
- TOP 6,228 -2,294 -137% 49.10% 2,963 -1,095 -137%
- IRPC 4,236 887 -79% 38.51% 1,528 47 -97%
- BCP 896 - -100% 27.22% 280 - -100%
Refining 15,750 -2,016 -113% 6,342 -1,176 -119%
Inter - PTTER, PTTGE -1,681 -1,863 -11% 100% -1,721 -2,018 -17%
Gas - PTTLNG/PTTNGD/ TTM(T)/ TTM (M) 1,618 1,471 -9% 50-100% 1,355 1,262 -7%
Utilities -GPSC/ TP/ DCAP 724 978 35% 20-30% 171 276 61%
Oil & Oth. - PTTT/SBECL/THAPPLINE/PTTRB/PTTANK/Others 3,508 940 -73% 33-100% 3,440 864 -75%
Others Business 4,169 1,526 -63% 3,245 384 -88%
Shared of Net Income from Affiliates 30,945 -45,281 -246% 14,727 -30,166 -305%
PTT Conso. Net Income 39,964 -41,697 -204% 23,746 -26,582 -212%
Equity Method % PTTPerformance 100%
Unit : MMTHB
Subsidiaries ConsolidatePTT (Cambodia) Co., Ltd. PTTCL 100.00%Subic Bay Energy Co., Ltd. SBECL 100.00%PTT Retail Business Co., Ltd. PTTRB 100.00%Thai Lube Blending Co., Ltd. TLBC** 48.95%PTT Tank Terminal Co., Ltd. PTTTANK 100.00%PTT Oil Myanmar Co., Ltd. PTTOM 100.00%
Associates EquityKeloil-PTT LPG Sdn. Bhd. KPL 40.00%Thai Petroleum Pipeline Co., Ltd.THAPPLINE 40.40%PetroAsia (Thailand) Co., Ltd. PA(Thailand) 35.00%
Others CostPetroAsia (Maoming) Co., Ltd. PA(Maoming) 20.00%PetroAsia (Sanshui) Co., Ltd. PA(Sanshui) 25.00%Intoplane Services Co., Ltd. IPS 16.67%Fuel Pipeline Transportation Co., Ltd.FPT 0.00024%
Others Fair ValueBangkok Aviation Fuel Services Plc. BAFS 7.06%
Others
Subsidiaries ConsolidatePTT Exploration & Production Plc. PTTEP 65.29%PTT Natural Gas Distribution Co., Ltd. PTTNGD 58.00%PTT LNG Co., Ltd. PTTLNG 100.00%Thai Oil Power Co., Ltd.* TP 26.00%Global Power Synergy Co., Ltd* GPSC 22.58%
Joint Ventures EquityTrans Thai-Malaysia (Thailand) Co., Ltd. TTM (T) 50.00%Trans Thai-Malaysia (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd. TTM (M) 50.00%District Cooling System and Power Plant DCAP 35.00%
Petrochemical Subsidiaries ConsolidatePTT Polymer Marketing Co., Ltd. PTTPM 50.00%PTT Polymer Logistics Co., Ltd. PTTPL**50.00%PTT PMMA Co., Ltd. PTTPMMA 100.00%PTT Global Chemical Plc.* PTTGC 48.91%PTT Maintenance and Engineering* PTTME 40.00%PTT Energy Solutions Co., Ltd.* PTTES 40.00%
Joint Ventures EquityHMC Polymers Co., Ltd. HMC 41.44%PTT Asahi Chemical Co., Ltd. PTTAC 48.50%PTT MCC Biochem Co., Ltd. PTTMCC 50.00%
Refining Subsidiaries ConsolidateThai Oil Plc.* TOP 49.10%IRPC Plc.* IRPC 38.51%
Refining Associates EquityStar Petroleum Refining Co., Ltd. SPRC 36.00%
Others Fair ValueDhipaya Insurance Plc. TIP 13.33%
Subsidiaries ConsolidateEnergy Complex Co., Ltd. EnCo 50.00%Business Service Alliance Co., Ltd. BSA * 25.00%PTT Regional Treasury Center Pte. Ltd. PTTRTC 100.00%PTT ICT Solutions Co., Ltd.* PTTICT 20.00%
International Trading Business Group
Subsidiaries ConsolidatePTT International Trading Pte. PTTT 100.00%
Remark : *The companies have changed their status to subsidiaries due to impact from PACK5** Subsidiaries that PTT holds less than 50% but being consolidated because PTT has the power to control the financial and operating policies.
Petrochemicals & Refining Business GroupE&P and Gas Business Group Oil Business Group
Data as of 30 September 2015
International Investment
Subsidiaries ConsolidatePTT Energy Resources Co., Ltd. PTTER 100.00%PTT Green Energy Pte. Ltd PTTGE 100.00%
46
46
47
Natural Gas Price Structure : Jan-Sep 2015
CustomersSales Price Structure
Gas Pool Price Supply Margins Pipeline Tariffs+ +
Average Purchased Gas Price
1.75%
1.75%
9.33%
21.9 Bt/MMBtu
Charged at the same price structure of power producers
Reference to Saudi Aramco’s contract price
Charged at prices comparable to fuel oil
Gas prices are mostly agreed under long-term contracts and volatility pass-through to ensure stable returns.
Capped at 13.50 Baht/Kg from Sep 2015
Profit-sharing mechanism based on market prices of petrochemicals
Reference to Naphtha market price
At GSPs cost (adjusted every 3 months)
• Contract periods are ~ 25-30 years or until depletion of gas fields or the expiration of concessions
47
*
* EGAT IPP and SPP Supply Margins not more than 2.1525 and 11.4759 respectively
*
*
Power Producers 60%
: EGAT 24%
: IPP 21%
: SPP 15%
GSP 20%
Petrochemicals Feedstocks
Industry 14%
NGV 6%
Ethane, Propane, LPG
NGL
Local Cooking Gas
Export Cooking Gas
Natural Gas : Increasing natural gas in power demand over long term by replacing Coal, EE and AE
48Source : PTT
Gas demand forecast (CAGR during 2015-2030): Total ~ 1%: Power ~ 2%: GSP ~ -3%: Industry ~ 2%: NGV ~ -1%
Thailand’s Projected Energy Demand
49
Primary Energy Consumption
Source : EPPO/ DEDE/ PDP 2015/ PTT analysis as of Dec 2015
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Oil
Natural Gas
Coal/Lignite
Hydro/Import
KBD
Renewable2,639
25%
32%
15%
2%
26%
3,606
2,494
29%
35%
13%
21%
2%
29%
37%
12%
20%
2%
1.5%
1.7%
3.1%
3.6%
5.2%
Gas Business Generates Stable Returns
Sole owner and operator of entire
gas transmission pipelines in
Thailand (> 3,000 km), a regulated
business
• IRROE ranges between
12.5% - 18% for transmission
pipeline investment
Supply & marketing of natural gas
provides fixed margin with long-term
contracts of 25-30 years
6 Gas Separation Plants; Total
production 6.7 MTA; are on
petrochemical market price-linked
profit sharing basis
Overview Gas transmission pipeline capacity
Sin Phu Hom
Nam Phong
Thailand
Ban I Tong
Nakhon Sawan
NBK
Tha Luang Nakhon Ratchasima
Kaong Khoi
Samut Prakan
ESB
BPK
Khanom
Songkhla
Sadao
Chon Buri
Rayong
Wang Noi
Thai-Malaysia
(JDA)
Arthit
Erawan
N.Pailin
Bongkot
South Bongkot
Platong
Tantawan
Benchamas
Natural gas fields
Power plantsGas separation plant
1,2,3,5,6 in Rayong
Gas separation unit 4
in Nakhon Si Thammarat
Existing pipeline
Future pipeline
Andaman Sea
50
Yadana
Yetagun
Zawtika
Platong 2
S.Pailin
Ratchaburi SBK
Map Ta Phut LNG Terminal
5
10
15
Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-1515
20
25
30
35
Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15
20
30
40
50
Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-1540
80
120
Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15
Energy Price Reform: Blessing in Disguise
Dubai Petroleum Products
LPG NGV
Adjusted 4 timesTotal change Private Car +3.00 THB/KgPublic Car +1.50 THB/Kg
Adjusted 4 times to be “Single price” since Dec 2014Adjusted avg. pool price to link with market price
107.11
46.70
USD/BBL
Sep-15
New Gov.
Public Car8.50 THB/Kg
Private Car10.50 THB/Kg
10.00
13.00
Auto21.38
Cooking18.13
Industry30.13
THB/Kg
Gasoline46.85
Diesel29.99
33.26
23.29
THB/Litre New Gov.
12.50
11.50
9.50
New Gov. THB/Kg
22.2924.16
Sep-15
Gasoline -13.59 THB/LiterDiesel -6.70 THB/Liter
13.50
Sep-15Sep-15
New Gov.
51
Energy Price Reform: LPG Prices
CP-20 $/ton or 423 $/ton
Lifted GSP Capped Price from 333 USD/TON to reflect GSP Cost
GSP3.6 Mil. Ton
(48%)
Imported 2.0 Mil.
Ton(27%)
Refinery1.9 Mil.
Ton(25%)
488 $/TON
or16 11 ฿/kg
CP+85 $/ton or 528 $/ton
498 $/ton
*CP Jan’15= 443 $/ton
Tax2.39 ฿/kg
Margin3.26 ฿/kg
Oil Fund0.63 ฿/kg
VAT1.57 ฿/kg
Oil FundAS
CLEARING HOUSE
Margin3.26 ฿/kg
VAT1.19 ฿/kg
Tax2.39 ฿/kg
No oil
Fund
23.96 ฿/kg
18.13 ฿/kg
Cooking
Transport
Industrial
Low income
Need subsidy
4.82 ฿/kg
LPG prices for Petchem : not controlled, but linked to market price and/or contract price
52
http://www.google.co.th/url?url=http://gas-lpg-rodyontt.blogspot.com/&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ei=58tcVPDKG8S8uATasYDQCg&ved=0CBcQ9QEwATgU&usg=AFQjCNGqWS3Kbm5yvRnOK4iTmVWnNiXGlghttp://www.google.co.th/url?url=http://gas-lpg-rodyontt.blogspot.com/&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ei=58tcVPDKG8S8uATasYDQCg&ved=0CBcQ9QEwATgU&usg=AFQjCNGqWS3Kbm5yvRnOK4iTmVWnNiXGlg