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Prevention of Volcanic Ash Prevention of Volcanic Ash EncountersEncounters
in the Proximity Area in the Proximity Area BetweenBetween
Active Volcanoes and Heavy Air Active Volcanoes and Heavy Air Traffic RoutesTraffic Routes
Saburo OnoderaSaburo Onodera
Flight Crew Training DeptFlight Crew Training Dept., ., Japan AirlinesJapan Airlines
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ContentsContents
11 . . Miyakejima Ash Encounter Miyakejima Ash Encounter (Aug.18(Aug.18thth,2000),2000)
22 . . Indirect Factors of Encounter Indirect Factors of Encounter
33 . . Lessons Learned and Proposal Lessons Learned and Proposal
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1.1. Miyakejima Ash EncounterMiyakejima Ash Encounter (Aug.18(Aug.18thth, 2000), 2000)
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Explosive Eruption on Aug.18th , 2000
Cloud Top at FL 460
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Miyakejima Volcanic Events
0802z Explosive Eruption begins.
0930z B747 encounters VA at FL340
0932z B737 encounters VA at FL360
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Significant Damage Found on B747
① 3 engines were seriously damaged and replaced at Narita.
② The remaining engine was also damaged and replaced at the next scheduled check. ③ The windshield was damaged and replaced.
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Why Aircraft VA Encounter Could Not be Prevented ?
The Need to Review the Respective Actions / Information at the Actual
Time of Encounter
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Actions
- Pilot - ATC (Air Traffic Control) Controller
Available Information
- VA Transport and Dispersion Forecast - SIGMET,VAA, etc.,
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Pilot Action (B747 Case)
① Requests ATC to deviate VA area.
② Inadvertently encounters VA at FL340.
★ St.Elmo’s Fire.
★ Cockpit Smoke
★ VHF Noise
③ Immediately reduces engine power.
④ Descends to FL310 to escape VA.
⑤ Lands safely at Narita Airport.
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MAIN POINT
WHY did the pilot encounters VA despite ATC
instructions?
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ATC Controller Action
ATC Instructions ATC vectored pilots to the furthest easterly route, believing it was the safest course of action.
However, the route gradually became
invaded with volcanic ash, and ATC could not provide effective radar vectoring.
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- Congested Route Area
- Limited Options - Timely Information
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Aircraft Airport of Estimated Narita Flight
Type Origin ATO Arrival Condition
B747 SPN 0824 0859 Normal
B747 SYD 0831 0906 Normal
B747 GUM 0849 0924 Normal
B747 CNS 0905 0940 Normal
DC10 GUM 0916 0951 Normal
B747 SPN 0930 1003 Encounter
B737 GUM 0932 1005 Encounter
Aircraft Sequence and Flight Conditions
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③ Available Information
(1) VA Transport and Dispersion Forecast
(2) SIGMET, VAA
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(1) VA Transport and Dispersion Forecast
Forecasts were issued and updated fre-
quently well before the eruption began.
However, the forecast was not accurate
enough to satisfy the needs for the area,
where options for route selection were very
limited.
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1000UTC0900UTC
(by Tokyo VAAC)
VA Forecast Transport and Dispersion Model
★ Encounter Point
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(2) SIGMET and VAA (An extract)0802z Explosive Eruption begins. (live broadcast) 0812z VA report “VA at or above 5000m, ・・”0818z VAA No1 “ Plume Top FL190”
0825z SIGMET 1 “ Top FL190 MOV UNKNOWN”
0840z SIGMET 2 “ Top more than FL400 Drifting
to E – SE, INTSF” (Pirep)
0925z VAA No3 “ Top FL460. Outlook ・・” ( Sat Pic)
0930z B747 encounters VA at FL3400932z B737 encounters VA at FL360
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(2) SIGMET, VAA Reports
Timing of issue ・・・・・・・・・・ swift and quick
( issued more than 1 hour before encounter)
Contents of Information ・・・ good as a whole
altitude of VA ・・・・・ ・・・・・ included
moving direction of VA ・・ included
moving speed of VA ・・・・ not included at first
area of contamination ・・・ not included at first
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Why was the VA Moving Speed and Area of Contamination Missing in SIGMET ?
Satellite imagery was not made immediately
available after observations. It takes time before the satellite data can be distributed to respective users.
Lack of timely critical information had a great
impact on ATC’s decision making process.
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Similar Volcanic Ash Encounter CasesSimilar Volcanic Ash Encounter Cases
The Izu-Oshima Volcanic EncounterThe Izu-Oshima Volcanic Encounter
on 21on 21stst November,1986 November,1986
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Izu-Oshima Volcano Eruption at 0723z(Left) and 0743z(Right) on 21st Nov. 1986. (Photo by H. Kamata)
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B747 DC8 DC10 B747
60nm South 40nm East 60nm East of Narita of Oshima of Oshima
Altitude(ft) 20000-30000↑ 30000-26000↓ 20000-23000↑ 17000-10000↓
StaticDischarge On Windshield None On Windshield ?
Odour like Burning Wood
Ash debris of Erosion on Fine small particle W/S, Stab. Scratches
like Found VA on fog patches in pitot tube Windshield
NoneDamage
orDebris
VA Encounter at Izu-Oshima Eruption on 21st Nov. 1986
Location ?
Odour Unusual Odour None ?
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1986 2000Izu-Oshima Miyakejima
Eruption Detection ○ ○SIGMET ○ ○NOTAM ○ ○
Satellite Imagery ○ ○ (Split Window) ( X ) ( ○ )
Dispersion Forecast X ○VAAC, VAA X ○
Comparison of the Countermeasurestaken in 1986 and 2000
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Year of Incident 1986 2000
Volcano name Izu-Oshima Miyakejima
Encounter Time (L) 1800~ 1830~
1620
1hour40min
Lead Time Before Encounter
1hour28min
Approx Time (L) ofExplosive Eruption
Elapsed Time sinceExplosive Eruption
1702
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VA Encounter Could Not be Prevented
(1) Even with much more available
information than 14 years ago.
(2) Even with substantial lead time
before the encounter.
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2. Indirect Factors of Encounter 2. Indirect Factors of Encounter
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Volcanic Products at Miyakejima Volcano Eruptionsin J UL SEP, 2000-
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
7/8 7/14-15
8/10 8/13 8/14 8/18 8/29 8/30 09/09-10Month/Date
?
t x
1,0
00,0
00,
()
Volume (m3)Weight ( t )
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Indirect Factors of VA Encounter at Miyakejima Volcano Eruption
① Difficulty of Predicting Explosive
Eruptions.
② Long Lasting Nature of Volcanic Activity
leads to Decreased Sense of Danger⇒
③ Complacency
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3. Lessons Learned and Proposal 3. Lessons Learned and Proposal
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“Why the Encounters Could Not Be Prevented?”
Direct Causes
① Lack of Timely Critical Information. e.g. The Moving Speed / Contaminated Area. Accurate VA Forecast.
② Delay of Positive Decision Making at ATC. e.g. Airspace was closed after encounter.
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“Why the Encounters Could Not Be Prevented?”
Indirect Factors
① Difficulty of predicting explosive eruptions.
② Long Lasting Nature of Volcanic Activity.
③ Complacency.
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Lessons Learned
Accurate and timely information on the area
of volcanic ash is critical.
In an area where Air Traffic is congested near
Active Volcanoes , ATC decision making on
“Volcanic Ash Avoidance” is crucial .
We do have lead time before Encounter.
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(a) More ATC Initiatives and Reliable Forecast(a) More ATC Initiatives and Reliable Forecast
(b) (b) Education and TrainingEducation and Training ( ) ⅰ( ) ⅰ Basic Knowledge of VA EncountersBasic Knowledge of VA Encounters
( ) ⅱ( ) ⅱ Practical Knowledge on VA Avoidance Practical Knowledge on VA Avoidance
(c) (c) Simulated Volcanic Eruption drillsSimulated Volcanic Eruption drills
Proposed items to be studiedProposed items to be studied
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I would like to conclude my I would like to conclude my talk by thanking thosetalk by thanking those
people who are contributingpeople who are contributingto the prevention of to the prevention of
volcanic ash encounter.volcanic ash encounter.
Thank You. Thank You.
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Miyakejima Volcanic Eruptions in 2000
08 JUL. (by NHK TV) 14 JUL. (by S. Nakada.)
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Miyakejima Volcanic Eruptions in 2000
10 AUG. ( by S. Nakada.) 14 AUG. ( by S. Nakada.)
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The Major Eruptions on 18 AUG., 2000
(by Yomiuri Newspaper.) (by Nikkei Newspaper.) (by Asahi Newspaper.)
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The Major Eruptions on 29 AUG., 2000
( by T. Shimano.) ( by T. Shimano.)
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Eruptions on 09 and 10 SEP., 2000
09 SEP. ( by O. Oshima.) 10 SEP. ( by S. Nakada.)
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Volcanic Activities After One Year (2001)
09 JUL. 2001 ( by M. Tsukui.) 09 JUL. 2001 ( by M. Tsukui.)
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Volcanic Activities After Two Years (2002)
07 AUG. 2002 ( by M. Tsukui.) 21 AUG. 2002 ( by M. Yoshimoto.)
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Volcanic Activities After Three Years (2003)
30 SEP. 2003 ( by M. Yoshimoto) 30 SEP. 2003 ( by M. Yoshimoto)
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Volcanic Activities After Three and a Half Years (2004)
24FEB. 2004 ( by M. Ohno.)
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Volcanic Events since 2000 to Date at Miyakejima Volcano
Jun., 2000. Volcanic Activity increased. Jul. ~ Aug. Repeated Small Eruptions. Aug.18th. Explosive Eruption.
2 VA encounters.
Sep.,2000 Volcanic Activity declines, but
~ SO2 Emissions continues.
Jun.,2004 Residents are still evacuated.
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Year of Incident 1986 1989 2000
Volcano name Izu-Oshima Redoubt Miyakejima
Encounter Time (L) 1800~ 1145 1830~
1620
1hour40min
160nm
1015
1hour30min
Volcanic Ash Encountered Time and Place
60nm
1hour28min
Distance betweenVolcano and the VA
Encounter Point50nm
Approx Time (L) ofExplosive Eruption
Elapsed Time sinceExplosive Eruption
1702
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ft
Volcano Height2500ft
VA Encounter at Izu-Oshima Volcano Eruptionon 21st Nov.,1986
60 70NM
DC8
B747 DC10B747
10000400
20000
30000
25000
15000
50302010