Natural Gas – a fuel for the future Jan Rune Schøpp, Vice President – Strategy and Analysis Natural Gas, Statoil Press brief ONS, Stavanger 25 August 2010
Natural Gas – a fuel for the future
Jan Rune Schøpp, Vice President – Strategy and Analysis Natural Gas, Statoil
Press brief ONS, Stavanger 25 August 2010
2
Statoil – building growth from a firm strategy
Maximise the NCS values
Deliver international growth
Build new
energyHarsh environments
Deep water
Heavy oil
Gas value chains
Growth areasA firm strategy
3
Gas increasingly important in Statoil’s production on the Norwegian Continental Shelf
Ambition to maintain NCS production level towards 2020 (mmboed)
Oil production*
* Production: Statoil’s equity production 1990 – 2009
Gas production*
New added production capacity towards 2018
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008
Sta
rt-u
p 2
014
-2018
Tommeliten Alpha
Astero
Lavrans
Peon
Alfa Sentral
Hild
Luva
Valemon
15/5-2
Dagny/Ermintrude
Marulk (Sanctioned)
Pan Pandora
Ormen Lange Compression
Gudrun (Sanctioned)
Grane C&M
Goliat (Sanctioned)
Note: Bold indicates operatorship / joint operatorship
Sta
rt-u
p 2
012
-2016
4
A unique European gas position
* Statoil entitlement gas and NCS gas marketed on behalf of SDFI sold in EuropeSource other companies Cedigaz 2008
165
71
55 55
Gazprom Statoil* Sonatrach GasTerra
Proximity to markets Access to an integrated and flexible infrastructureA leading marketer of gas (bcm)
Nyhamna
Europipe II
Europipe I
Norpipe
Emden/Dornum
Åsgard transport
Franpipe
Zeebrugge
Zeepipe
St Fergus
VesterledKårstø
Kollsnes
Ormen Lange
Easington
Langeled
Ekofisk
Sleipner
Troll
Dunkerque
Tampen Link
Draupner
Norway
Russia
Algeria
Pipeline
LNG
5
Majority of Statoil’s gas sold under long-term gas sales contracts
2001 and 2004: Statoil’s and Hydro’s annual reports, incl. SDFI
2007 - 2009: Statoil and SDFI, including third party volumes
Strong customer portfolio* –geographically diversifiedStrong growth in sales (bcm)
* List not exhaustive
39
61
78
87
2001 2004 2007 2009
6
Marcellus – US
Developing new gas value chains
Shah Deniz –AzerbaijanAlgeria – North Africa NCS – Norway
7
A new supply corridor to Europe with Shah Deniz in Azerbaijan
- Potential exports phase 2 exceeding 16 bcm/yr
- MoU between Turkey and Azerbaijan represents
a major step forward for the Shah Deniz project
- Statoil’s ownership share 25.5 per cent
- 8 bcm/yr gas export from Shah Deniz phase 1
- Gas sales to Turkey, Georgia and Azerbaijan
Shah Deniz phase 2 –possible new gas corridor to the European market
Shah Deniz – one of Statoil’s most important international gas fields
Italy Greece interconnector (IGI)
NabuccoTrans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP)
Transit pipelinesSouth Caucasus pipeline (SCP)
8
US shale gas production
Gas prices (øre/Sm3)
Gas prices are not low in a historical context
Main drivers in the gas market (bcm)
Gas demand (EU27)
531
565
2008 2009
565
531
2008 2009
LNG supply capacity
268
232
2008 2009
268
232
2008 2009
268
232
2008 2009
63
88
2008 2009
0
100
200
300
2000
2001
2002
2003
2005
2006
2007
2008
2010
2011
2012
2013
2015
NBP HH German border Japan Average
Market’s expectation
Sources: BMWi, Heren, Platts, CERA
9
Robust long term growth in gas demand
Domestic supplies
US (bcm) Europe (bcm) Asia (bcm)
Imports Upside potential
Source: Statoil internal
0
200
400
600
800
1000
2010 2020 2030
0
200
400
600
800
1000
2010 2020 2030
0
200
400
600
800
1000
2010 2020 2030
10
Natural gas – a fuel for the future
Most cost competitive fuel
Available now when old capacity need to be replaced
Source: CERA and Platts
Conclude new sales
Europe
Older than 40 yrs
31 – 40 yrs
21 – 30 yrs
11 – 20 yrs
0 – 10 yrs
New capacity
Source: IEA world energy outlook 2009
$10/MMbtu$11/MMbtu
$15/MMbtu
Old coal plant
emissions
New coal plant
reductions
Gas switch
reduction
Reduce CO2 emissions by 70% compared to old coal-fired plants
New CCGT
emissions
Source: Deutsche Bank
11
The shale gas revolution has increased global gas resources
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2009
Global gas resources 2008 (TCM)
Unconventional gas resourcesConventional gas resources
210
OECD
200
Rest of the world
200
Russia / FSU
170
Middle East