Presented to: MWCOG By: Roger Schaufele Date: 09 April 2008 Federal Aviation Administration General Aviation Forecast Overview 2008-2025
Presented to: MWCOG By: Roger Schaufele Date: 09 April 2008 Federal Aviation Administration General Aviation Forecast Overview 2008-2025.
Dec 15, 2015
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Presented to: MWCOG
By: Roger Schaufele
Date: 09 April 2008
Federal AviationAdministrationGeneral Aviation
Forecast Overview2008-2025
2Federal AviationAdministration09 April 2008
Agenda
• Background• Historic National Trends• Forecast Overview• DC Area Trends and Forecast
3Federal AviationAdministration09 April 2008
Background• What do we forecast?
• Airline traffic and capacity • General Aviation activity• Aircraft operations• Done at both national and individual airport level
• What are the forecasts used for?• Facility Planning• ATC Staffing• Regulatory analysis• FAA Budgets• Investment Analysis• Baseline Comparisons for Airport Master Plans
4Federal AviationAdministration09 April 2008
General Aviation Trends 2000-07• Modest growth in fleet and hours
– Total fleet growth of 6.4% (13,500 A/C)• Turbo Jet A/C up 41% to 11,000; Piston A/C flat
– Hours up 3.1%• Turbo Jets 66% higher; Pistons (including rotorcraft) down
13.3%
• Activity down– Ops at FAA and Contract Towers down 16.9%– Instrument Ops down 19.5%– En Route A/C Handled down 5.1%
• Sales and Deliveries growing since 2003– Jet sales up 83%; piston sales up 62%– Jet deliveries up 112%; piston deliveries up 37%
5Federal AviationAdministration09 April 2008
GA Forecast Overview 2008-25• Growth in high end of market
– Total fleet is 27% higher by 2025 (61,000 increase) • Piston A/C (including rotorcraft) up 15,000 (0.5% per year)• Turbo Jet A/C up 18,500 (5.6% per year)
– Biz Jets increase by 10,500 (3.8% per year)– VLJs total 8,145 by 2025
– Hours are 70% higher in 2025 (3% per year)• Turbo Jets grow 7.6% per year• Pistons (including rotorcraft) grow 1.1% per year
– Operations growth reflects hours growth• Tower operations increase 26% by 2025 (1.3% per year)• En Route aircraft handled up 68% (3% per year)
6Federal AviationAdministration09 April 2008
General Aviation Fleet
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Fiscal Year
No
. O
f A
ircra
ft
Piston Turbine Exp, LSA, Oth
Actual Forecast
2007-25 Avg. Annual Growth
Piston: 0.5%
Turbine: 3.7%
Exp, LSA, Oth: 3.0%
7Federal AviationAdministration09 April 2008
General Aviation Flight Hours
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Fiscal Year
Fli
gh
t H
ou
rs (
000)
Piston Exp, LSA, Oth Non VLJ Turbine VLJs
Actual Forecast
2007-25 Avg. Annual Growth Piston: 1.1%Exp, LSA, Oth: 4.1%Non VLJ Turbine: 2.8%VLJs: 28.4%
8Federal AviationAdministration09 April 2008
Tower Operations
2008-25 Avg. Annual Growth
Commercial: 2.7%
Gen Aviation: 1.3%
Military: 0.0%
Actual Forecast
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Fiscal Year
Op
era
tio
ns (
000)
Commercial Gen Aviation Military
9Federal AviationAdministration09 April 2008
DC Area Trends
10Federal AviationAdministration09 April 2008
DC General Aviation Trends 2000-07• Activity down overall
– GA operations down 12.2%; slightly more than total ops• Largest declines at DCA, HEF, and MTN• Itinerant down 30% while local up 7.7%
• Biz Jet Activity up 7.5%; peaked in 2005– IAD up 112%; DCA down 95%– Share of GA activity increased from 8.6% to 10.5%– DCA had most activity in 2000 (40% of total); IAD in
2007 (65.8% of total)
11Federal AviationAdministration09 April 2008
0
300,000
600,000
900,000
1,200,000
1,500,000
1,800,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Op
era
tio
ns
Commercial GA Military
DC Area Tower Operations
12Federal AviationAdministration09 April 2008
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Calendar Year
Op
era
tio
ns
BWI, DCA, IAD FDK GAI HEF HGR JYO MTN
DC Area General Aviation Operations
13Federal AviationAdministration09 April 2008
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Calendar Year
Op
era
tio
ns
BWI DCA FDK GAI HEF HGR IAD JYO MTN
General Aviation Biz Jet Operations
14Federal AviationAdministration09 April 2008
DC Area Tower Forecast 2008-25
• Activity up 42% by 2025 (2% annual growth)– Slightly higher than national growth
• Commercial growth 2.4% per year• GA growth of 1.5% per year• Exceed 2000 peak in 2014
15Federal AviationAdministration09 April 2008
0
300,000
600,000
900,000
1,200,000
1,500,000
1,800,000
2,100,000
2,400,000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Op
era
tio
ns
Commercial GA Military
DC Area Tower Operations
2008-25 Avg. Annual Growth
Commercial: 2.4%
General Aviation: 1.5%
Military: 0.0%
Actual Forecast
16Federal AviationAdministration09 April 2008
Things to look for
• Congestion – will it be as bad as in 2007?• Environmental concerns will continue to be in
the forefront of aviation debates.• Strength of demand given high oil prices and a
slowing economy.• Success of on-demand air taxi operators and
use of VLJs.
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