Presented by: MACROECONOMIC SCORECARD: THE WORLD’S LARGEST ECONOMIES March 2013 Economist Doug Hermanson
Dec 14, 2015
Presented by:
MACROECONOMIC SCORECARD: THE WORLD’S LARGEST ECONOMIES
March 2013
Economist
Doug Hermanson
© Copyright 2013 Kantar Retail
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Current Retail Conditions
2
Clear deterioration in Europe; China and U.S. a bit mixed
Summary of Macro Factors Affecting Retail*Q4 2012 or Latest Available Month*
Source: EuroStat, Japan National Statistics Center, National Bureau of Statistics of China, U.S. Department of Commerce, Conference Board, and Kantar Retail
* GDP, Investment and Consumer Spending are quarterly through fourth quarter of 2012; Remaining indicators are monthly through January, February or March 2013
• Euro zone and EU declining sharply; inflation may loom with easy money, weak currency
• China balancing strong growth vs. inflation pressures
• U.S. positive in some measures, but gov’t issues have tripped up confidence
Economic Bloc
GDP, Annualized Growth Rate*Residential & Business Investment*Consumer Spending*Retail Sales Consumer ConfidenceCPI Headline IndexCPI Food IndexCPI Core Index
World's Largest Economies
China EUEuro Zone
JapanUnited StatesIndicators
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The Global Macro Outlook for Retail
3
Threatened by recession and weak growth into 2013
Source: Kantar Retail
Short Term (6–12 months)
Long Term (2–5 years)
China
Healthy growth likely to persist, but at risk of re-igniting inflation pressures
Long-term growth unlikely to be as robust as past amid price/cost pressures
EuropePersisting recession conditions with uncertain path toward growth
Growth likely kept stagnant by austerity and lack of confidence
Japan
Uneven growth amid weak export demand, & despite aggressive monetary policy to spur growth
Growth kept modest by various factors, including aging population
United States
Weakness/threats offset by persisting gains in housing, investment, hiring
Growth kept modest by constraints on income growth, price pressures
Net Outlook
Modest global growth likely; downside risks most apparent in Europe
Moderate growth tempered by persisting inflation, austerity effects
• Europe will remain in recession in 2013
• China and emerging markets follow mixed path, shifting positive
• The United States will sustain slow to modest growth
• As global demand revives beyond 2013, global commodity price pressure will re-emerge
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Summary Conclusions and Implications
4
• Short vs. Long Term. Expect retail demand to remain on a modest and uneven path in the short term. When global growth shifts into a higher gear will be determined by the euro debt crisis and emerging markets, likely in 2014 or beyond.
• Europe. Expect flat or negative growth in most countries through at least 2013 due to the escalating euro debt crisis.
• China/Emerging Markets. A quick return to robust growth in China and other emerging markets is unlikely.
• United States. Expect U.S. retail sales growth to keep a respectable pace, but a notch below last year.
• Prices/Costs. Plan on global cost pressures that remain relatively modest for most markets in 2013 as a result of moderate global demand growth in the short term.
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Largest Markets: GDP Trends Span Big Range
5
• Euro zone and EU pressured by fall off in investment
• Underlying U.S. growth trends stronger than indicated
• Growth in Japan is elusive
• China is sustaining healthy growth despite threats
Source: EuroStat, China National Bureau of Statistics and Kantar Retail
Largest Economies: Inflation-Adjusted GDPQtr-to-Qtr Growth, Seasonally-Adjusted Annualized Rate
*European Union includes 27 countries**Euro zone includes 17 countries*** Calculated by annualizing quarterly growth rate reported by National Bureau of Statistics of China
Growth is holding up in China; declining in Europe
-0.7% -0.7%
1.3%
-0.2%
8.2%
0.4%
-0.3%
3.1%
-0.9%
8.7%
-1.9% -2.3%
0.4% 0.0%
8.2%
European Union*
Euro Zone** United States
Japan China***
2012.2 2012.3 2012.4
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Largest Markets: Little Momentum in Retail Sales
6
• Euro zone and EU have fallen flat
• U.S. growth holds at modest pace
• Japan trending with flat price growth
• Renewed letup in China is concern; unlikely to persist given consumer confidence
Largest Economies: Nominal Retail SalesYear-to-Year Percent Change; Not Adjusted for Inflation*
Euro zone***
United States
China
Japan
Trends in U.S and China still portend sustained global growth
Source: EuroStat, Japan National Statistics Center, National Bureau of Statistics of China, U.S. Department of Labor
European Union**
* United States , Japan and China are through February Others are through January ** European Union includes 27 countries *** Euro zone includes 17 countries
-4%
-1%
2%
5%
8%
11%
14%
17%
20%
Mar-11 Mar-12
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Largest Markets: Price Pressures Mostly Easing
7
• Weather-affected commodities have pushed Chinese food prices higher
• U.S. inflation mostly dormant; elevated gasoline prices an issue
• Inflation pressures easing in Europe and Japan; Easy money policies may change this
Largest Economies: Consumer Price InflationYear-to-Year Percent Change, Through February*
Euro zone***United States
China
Japan
Pockets of stronger inflation in China and United States
Source: EuroStat, Japan National Statistics Center, National Bureau of Statistics of China, U.S. Department of Labor
European Union**
* Through February except the Japan is through January** European Union includes 27 countries *** Euro zone includes 17 countries
-3%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
18%
21%
Mar-11 Mar-12
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-3%
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
18%
21%
Jan-11 Jan-12
Largest Markets: Core Inflation Dormant
8
• All the major markets have core inflation rates at or below 2.0%
• China’s core rate is surprisingly more modest than in United States
• Japan’s rate once again declining, triggering easy money policies to spur inflation
Largest Economies: Core Consumer Price InflationYear-to-Year Percent Change, Through February*
Euro zone***
United StatesChina
Japan
Excluding food and fuel, little inflation in other categories
Source: EuroStat, Japan National Statistics Center, National Bureau of Statistics of China, U.S. Department of Labor
European Union**
* Through November, except the Japan is through October** European Union includes 27 countries *** Euro zone includes 17 countries
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Largest Markets: Confidence Metrics Mixed
9
• China most positive
• Expectations for aggressive growth policies may be boosting Japan’s confidence
• Confidence in Europe is holding at very weak levels
• U.S. plagued by uncertainty around government budget
Largest Economies: Consumer ConfidenceYear-to-Year Percent Change, through February*
Euro zone*** (right scale)
United States
China
Japan
Weak in Europe; picking up in China, Japan; volatile in U.S.
Source: EuroStat, Japan National Statistics Center, National Bureau of Statistics of China, U.S. Department of Labor
European Union** (right scale)
* Through February, except the United States through March** European Union includes 27 countries *** Euro zone includes 17 countries
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
0
20
40
60
80
100
Apr-11 Apr-12
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Scorecard: European Union and Euro Zone
10Source: EuroStat, Japan National Statistics Center, National Bureau of Statistics of China, U.S. Department of Commerce, Conference Board, and Kantar Retail
• The euro area hurt most by Spain and Italy, but France and Germany increasingly a negative factor
• EU indicators are similar due to a renewed decline in the United Kingdom
• Easing inflation may soften declines in unit-demand—but weak currency raises inflation threat
The Largest Economies: Selected Indicators
1 A three-month moving average is used to smooth out volatility in consumer confidence and retail sales2 Consumer spending (inflation-adjusted) is estimated by Kantar RetailY-to-Y = Year-over-Year change; Q-to-Q = change from prior quarter; M-to-M = change from prior month. Chg Y-to-Y = rate of Year-over-Year change in percentage points; Same for quarterly and monthly growth. All data is seasonally adjusted unless indicated by "NSA" or Not Seasonally Adjusted
Growth
Period Y-to-YQ-to-Q or
M-to-MChg
Y-to-YChg Q-to-Q or M-to-M
GDP (Inflation-Adjusted), Annualized Growth Rate Q4 '12 -0.6% -1.9% -0.2% -2.4%Residential & Business Investment (Inflation-Adjusted) Q4 '12 -3.5% -3.4% -0.3% -0.6%Consumer Spending (Inflation-Adjusted) Q4 '12 -0.7% -1.0% 0.2% -0.8%Retail Sales Excluding Auto & Fuel Channels 1 Jan-13 -0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.6%Consumer Confidence (Points) 1 Feb-13 -2.8 0.8 0.9 0.8CPI Headline Index, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) Feb-13 2.0% 0.4% -0.1% 1.2%CPI Food Index, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) Feb-13 3.2% 0.2% -0.6% -0.6%CPI Core Index, excluding food and fuel (NSA) Feb-13 1.4% 0.3% -0.1% 1.8%
Growth
Period Y-to-YQ-to-Q or
M-to-MChg
Y-to-YChg Q-to-Q or M-to-M
GDP (Inflation-Adjusted), Annualized Growth Rate Q4 '12 -0.9% -2.3% -0.3% -2.1%Residential & Business Investment (Inflation-Adjusted) Q4 '12 -4.9% -4.4% -0.6% -1.4%Consumer Spending (Inflation-Adjusted) Q4 '12 -1.2% -1.6% 0.3% -1.2%Retail Sales Excluding Auto & Fuel Channels 1 Jan-13 -0.7% 0.2% 0.3% 0.7%Consumer Confidence (Points) 1 Feb-13 -2.8 0.5 0.9 0.7CPI Headline Index, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) Feb-13 1.8% 0.4% -0.1% 1.4%CPI Food Index, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) Feb-13 2.7% 0.1% -0.5% -0.4%CPI Core Index, excluding food and fuel (NSA) Feb-13 1.3% 0.3% -0.1% 2.1%
European Union
Euro Area
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Scorecard: China, Japan, and United States
11Source: EuroStat, Japan National Statistics Center, National Bureau of Statistics of China, U.S. Department of Commerce, Conference Board, and Kantar Retail
• Japan is struggling to maintain growth amid weak global demand
• China still faces tough task to sustain strong growth without causing more inflation
• U.S. positive in some key measures, but tax/spend issues have tripped up confidence
The Largest Economies: Selected Indicators
1 A three-month moving average is used to smooth out volatility in consumer confidence and retail sales2 China’s consumer spending is estimated by Kantar Retail
Growth
Period Y-to-YQ-to-Q or
M-to-MChg
Y-to-YChg Q-to-Q or M-to-M
GDP (Inflation-Adjusted), Annualized Growth Rate Q4 '12 1.7% 0.4% -0.9% -2.7%Residential & Business Investment (Inflation-Adjusted) Q4 '12 7.2% 14.0% 1.0% 13.1%Consumer Spending (Inflation-Adjusted) Q4 '12 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.3%Retail Sales Excluding Auto & Fuel Channels 1 Feb-13 4.1% 0.4% 0.1% -0.1%Consumer Confidence (Points) 1 Mar-13 -5.5 -2.3 -3.9 -1.2CPI (Headline Index) Feb-13 2.0% 0.7% 0.4% 0.7%CPI Food Index Feb-13 1.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%CPI (Core Index, excluding food and fuel) Feb-13 2.0% 0.2% 0.1% -0.1%
Growth
Period Y-to-YQ-to-Q or
M-to-MChg
Y-to-YChg Q-to-Q or M-to-M
GDP (Inflation-Adjusted), Annualized Growth Rate Q4 '12 0.4% 0.0% -0.1% 1.0%Residential & Business Investment (Inflation-Adjusted) Q4 '12 0.1% 0.0% -4.4% 1.3%Consumer Spending (Inflation-Adjusted) Q4 '12 1.1% 0.5% 0.0% 1.0%Retail Sales at Supermarkets and Department Stores 1 Feb-13 -0.6% -0.1% -0.4% 0.3%Consumer Confidence (Points) 1 Feb-13 2.7 1.6 1.1 0.4CPI (Headline Index) Jan-13 -0.3% 0.0% -0.2% -0.1%CPI Food Index Jan-13 -0.7% 1.4% -0.4% 1.0%CPI (Core Index, excluding food and fuel) Jan-13 -0.7% 0.0% -0.1% 0.1%
Growth
Period Y-to-YQ-to-Q or
M-to-MChg
Y-to-YChg Q-to-Q or M-to-M
GDP (Inflation-Adjusted), Annualized Growth Rate Q4 '12 7.8% 8.2% 0.1% -0.4%Residential & Business Investment (Inflation-Adjusted), NSA 1 Feb-13 21.2% 0.0% 0.0% 67.2%Consumer Spending (Inflation-Adjusted), NSA 1,2 Feb-13 11.3% -2.2% -1.2% -2.8%Retail Sales of all Consumer Goods, NSA 1 Feb-13 13.3% -1.4% -0.8% -2.8%Consumer Confidence (Points) 1 Feb-13 2.3 1.0 -1.6 1.6CPI (Headline Index), NSA Feb-13 3.2% 2.6% 1.2% 4.1%CPI Food Index, NSA Feb-13 6.0% 3.0% 3.1% -1.6%CPI excluding food and fuel prices, NSA Feb-13 1.8% -0.2% 0.3% -0.9%
United States
Japan
China
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Frank Badillo
Doug Hermanson
T: +614.355.4019
T: +614.355.4044
Senior Economist
Economist
KRIQ website: Macroeconomics Insights Topics & Trends > Macroeconomics
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www.KantarRetailiq.com
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