Presented by Carissa Christensen, CEO, Bryce Space and … · 2018-01-22 · The Global Commercial Space Economy . Presented by Carissa Christensen, CEO, Bryce Space and Technology

The Global Commercial Space Economy Presented by Carissa Christensen, CEO, Bryce Space and Technology

SpaceCom 2017 Houston, December 5, 2017

2016 Global Space Economy

2016 Satellite Industry Indicators

Global satellite industry grew 2% in 2016, below worldwide economic growth (3.1%) and slightly above the U.S. growth (1.6%)

6% 18%* 10% 7% 3% Growth Rate 5%

Global Satellite Industry Revenues ($ Billions) $

Bill

ions

2X

Ten-Year Global Industry

Growth

15% 19% 11% 2%

$122 $144 $161 $168 $177 $210 $231 $247 $255 $261

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Risk-tolerant Investment in New Ventures

• Space attracting increased investment from Silicon Valley, world-wide

• Start-Up Space analyzes 21st century space investment trends

• Focus: investors, investment in new companies with private financing

Magnitude of Investments by Type and Period

Common Investments Among VCs

Space Unicorns

• SpaceX has joined an elite group of companies, called “unicorns,” which are private companies with a valuation of $1 billion or more

– SpaceX now valued at $27B – Fourth most valuable privately

held company in America – Planet became the second with

a valuation of $1.1B this year

Relative Sizes of Earth Observation Satellites

Landsat Data Continuity Mission (LDCM) NASA

Dove Planet

WoldView-3 DigitalGlobe

Number of Launches and Very Small Satellites

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*

Num

ber o

f Lau

nche

s

Num

ber o

f Sat

ellit

es L

aunc

hed

Year

FemtoPicoNanoMicroMiniNumber of Launches

*Launched to date as of 8/17

Smallsat Remote Sensing Ventures Sell Analytics

• Focused on new markets for analytics • Enabled by computing power and

machine learning • Potential applications to many industries • Customer base still in early stages • Growing government interest

New NGSO Telecom Ventures

Characteristics of the Start-Up Space Supply Chain

• Vertical integration • Manufacturer-operators • Maker and small team innovation • Leveraging COTS • Warehousing • Reusability • Additive manufacturing

Commercial Human Spaceflight: Billionaires & Buzz

Driven by Dreams of Living and Working in Space

Market Dynamics, Commercial Human Spaceflight

• Proposed systems largely viewed as technically credible • Mix of business experience, from global entrepreneurial superstars to technologists • Meaningful investment with potential for more • Business case not proven; uncertain demand and revenue potential

• Analysis, ticket sales, suggest commercial demand for suborbital services. Supply side somewhat uncertain

• Potential commercial demand for orbital services and LEO destinations, limited analysis • Unknown demand for Moon/Mars destinations, very little data • Many projections assume a robust LEO economy – chicken/egg

• Major challenges: magnitude of investment is massive, technology is complex, timelines are long

Prepared by Bryce Space and Technology Carissa Christensen, CEO [email protected] @BryceSpaceTech +1 703-647-8070